Corsi

Michigan hung the heads of two teams this weekend [JD Scott]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

13 5 46%

Second Period

13 8 42%

Third Period

6 3 18%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

32 16 36%

Analysis: This is another game where overall Corsi is not as relevant as either Close Corsi or House Chances. I charted the game on a re-watch, and it really became a game of errors. Michigan definitely created some chances, but they also took advantage of some major gaffes by BU.

Over the first half of the game or so, the Wolverines were able to get into the House with relative ease, as close to half of their attempts came from a desirable location. After the fluky Slaker goal gave Michigan the lead, they mostly went into prevent mode, and BU applied tons of pressure to tie the game. Michigan was happy to sacrifice chances on net for protection of their own net. This wasn’t the best offensive output of the season by any means, but it was reflective of the game that Michigan was playing.

Even so, Michigan missed a few golden chances to extend their lead and end the game. CHN had close corsi at 32-24, BU, which is way more reflective of how this game went. Hughes was the beneficiary of a goal in which all six BU participants stood in a parallel line. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before. Warren’s hustle goal also came from a Plinko bounce off of the boards and Oettinger’s skate.

[After THE JUMP: shutdown defense, timely goaltending, and advantageous OMRs]

Cooper Marody played like a Hobey Baker finalist [James Coller]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

23 6 55%

Second Period

24 8 71%

Third Period

15 5 50%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

62 19 58%

Analysis: Awesome. This was a wonderful output of offense from Michigan. The Wolverines consistently got into the House and created chances from all over the ice. While it was a tight game, the main reason that is stayed that way was Cayden Primeau. He made about 5-6 fantastic saves. Otherwise, there is a good chance Michigan hangs a couple more on the possession-starved Huskies.

The DMC line went head-to-head with the top scoring line in the country and hung a –3 on them. I’ll get more into the defense in the next section, but Cooper Marody danced throughout the offensive zone and connected with Calderone and Dancs on numerous occasions. Cooper’s first goal was a circling blind shot that snuck in short-side. Dancs added a soft goal to retake the lead, as he shot from a poor angle and was still able to deflect it off of Primeau and inside the far post. Marody’s game winner came from just outside the crease off of a deft dish from Tony Calderone, who had driven the wing and gotten to the goalline.

FWIW, the Slaker-Norris combination could have also had a couple of goals, themselves…including Norris missing a WIDE OPEN net from just under the dot. The Pastujovs-Becker line also created some havoc. Northeastern has a great scoring line, yet couldn’t always get them the puck in the offensive end. Michigan identified that and exploited it all night.

[After THE JUMP: come for the offense, stay for the defense (!). And special teams. And goaltending]

2018Bracket

Hello Plinko, my old friend death. [uscho.com]

After the Michigan preview, there will be a breakdown of the remaining seven games, starting with the opposite game in Michigan’s Regional. I’ve asked Adam and MGoHockeyReference Anthony Ciatti to give a take as well.

Probabilities. If you’re looking for some game-specific numbers, Ed Feng has released his predictions based upon his new rankings.

The Field

Northeast Regional

(3) Cornell, (8) Michigan, (9) Northeastern (13) Boston University: What a crazy regional for Michigan. Cornell ain’t played nobody never but has only given up 49 goals in 32 games. BU has more NHL talent than the Arizona Coyotes, but might be coached by Also Herm Edwards. Northeastern never has the puck but has two Hobey finalists and an ace freshman legacy goalie. So, they’re Notre Dame with goal-scorers. Oh, and the #3 and #4 seeds are playing in their backyard. What even. Can we do this, please? 

(8) Michigan vs (9) Northeastern

Team

PWR

Corsi Rank

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 PPG

GAA

Save%

Record in last 5 games

Northeastern

9

37

27%

82%

7

6(5)

1.88

.932

4-1

Michigan

8

22

18%

75%

7

3

2.79

.910

4-1



Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Northeastern:

1. Stay Out of The Box. Every week, this is #1. In past weeks, its been a direct reflection of Michigan's penalty kill. While that is still the case, Northeastern has a top-3 power play. Gaudette, Sikura, and Stevens have a combined 35 of their 75 goals for the season on the man advantage. Yikes. Matching penalties can be acceptable, but giving the Huskies more than three power plays could easily mean a short return to the NCAA Tournament for the Wolverines.

2. Wisely Use the Last Change. Being the #2 seed instead of the #3 seed makes Michigan the 'home' team (yes, I am also laughing). Because of that, the Wolverines will get the last change. This could/would mean being able to match-up the Hughes/Cecconi pairing with Northeastern's version of the CCM line: Adam Gaudette, Dylan Sikura, and Nolan Stevens. While this could temper some of Hughes's ability to go forward, tell me two other defensive options that would be preferred on the ice against two Hobey Baker finalists. 

3. Win via Depth. Once you get past the top line for the Huskies, the scoring drops off rather suddenly; their fourth through sixth forwards have five, five, and seven goals on the season. The two post-DMC lines for Michigan aren't exactly explosive, but Slaker and Norris have had a productive second half. Also, the Pastujovs and Becker have turned up their output, as well. Given each team's possession rates, Michigan should be able to control the puck, and getting some depth-scoring will go a long way to offset Northeastern's top line.

Final Thoughts: Man, I don't know. This was the mid-seed that I was hoping to avoid. Northeastern has two Hobey Baker finalists, a top-5 freshman goalie, a wicked-awesome power play, and a ridiculous top line. They also have a poor possession rate, little scoring depth, and a weakish schedule. Michigan might have the more complete team, but Northeastern has higher peaks in key spots and looks like they might be a tough matchup for the Wolverines. If Lavigne plays towards his higher end, though, Michigan has a good chance...assuming they can keep the game at even strength.

Adam’s Take: Things look pretty bleak in some key spots for Michigan, but I think they've got just enough going their way to squeak out a win. As David mentioned, having the last change will help match top pair against top line; this isn't likely to neutralize one of the best top lines in the country, but there's comfort in putting out a solid pairing that features a defenseman who excels at playing keepaway. One caveat to my prediction: they only squeak out said win if they take fewer than three penalties. Michigan can probably kill one or two peanlties and use the second and third lines to make up the difference at even stregth, but more than three penalties and Northeastern creates a chasm Michigan can't bridge.

Anthony’s Take: I watched the Beanpot and came away thinking NU was a good team.  Their high-end talent and goaltending is something I hadn't seen a lot of this season and I did not want Michigan to draw them in the tourney. Northeastern is 16-4-4 since the start of December, so they are equally as hot as Michigan  They had a goal differential in conference of over 1.5 goals per game, and were best in their league in both goals for and against.

Obviously I think UM can win this game as it is a one-game knockout, but I would favor Northeastern. For Michigan to win they will have to avoid bad penalties and high-danger scoring chances. Northeastern has the special teams and goaltending advantage so that worries me. Unfortunately I think UM's achilles heel (PK and Goaltending) will be their demise here.

 

[Predictions for the rest of the field after THE JUMP]

it's the most wonderful time of the year [JD Scott]