Ultimate UM Football Revenge Tour Scenario

Ultimate UM Football Revenge Tour Scenario

Submitted by Indy Pete - Go Blue on November 7th, 2018 at 10:05 PM

Michigan could potentially have six games left if we win every single one. The official 4 game Michigan revenge tour (Wisconsin, msu, psu, osu) is nearly complete, but here is my scenario for the ultimate Michigan football revenge tour: 

1. Michigan defeats chief rival Rutger despite their efforts to fence the garden and defeat us for the second time in their history. We may have the most wins and the highest winning percentage of all time, but they are the birthplace of college football. We need revenge on them for giving birth to football before we did.

Looking at projected playoff teams' performances against top offenses and defenses

Looking at projected playoff teams' performances against top offenses and defenses

Submitted by taistreetsmyhero on November 7th, 2016 at 1:37 PM

I know that S&P+ rankings account for strength of opponent in their calculations for rankings, but I wanted to take a simplistic look at how the projected playoff teams fared against their hardest opponents thus far.

I am assuming the top 4 teams in this week's playoff standings will be Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Wahsington.

First, I looked at those teams' defensive performances against the top 3 S&P+ rated offenses that they faced. I tallied the points their opponents scored against their defenses (ignored special teams scores and defensive points against). Charts:

Def. S&P+ Best Opponent Off. S&P+ 2nd Best  3rd Best
CFP Top 4 Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against
1. Michigan 28 (PSU) 10 191 32 (CU) 21 325 58 (MD) 3 367
2. Alabama 9 (Ole Miss) 36 522 24 (USC) 3 194 27 (TAMU) 23 316
4. Clemson 1 (UL) 36 586 7 (FSU) 34 449 16 (AU) 13 262
12. Washington 10 (CAL) 27 362 14 (OR) 21 409 55 (UT) 24 376

 

Def. S&P+ Averages of 3 Best
CFP Top 4 Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against
1. Michigan 39.33 11.33 294.33
2. Alabama 20 20.67 344.00
4. Clemson 8 27.67 432.33
12. Washington 26.33 24.00 382.33

(Yellow=Michigan, Blue=Washington, Maroon=Alabama, Orange=Clemson)

Next I did the same thing for those teams' offensive performances against the top 3 S&P+ rated defenses that they faced. I again ignored points scored by the teams' defenses and special teams. Charts:

Off. S&P+ Best Opponent Def. S&P+ 2nd Best  3rd Best
CFP Top 4 Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained
3. Washington 17 (STAN) 44 424 35 (UT) 31 385 64 (RU!!!) 31 380
8. Michigan 3 (UW) 14 349 8 (CU) 38 397 15 (PSU) 49 515
12. Alabama 5 (LSU) 10 323 23 (USC) 45 465 29 (TENN) 35 594
20. Clemson 9 (UL) 42 507 13 (AU) 19 399 25 (BC) 49 508

 

Off. S&P+ Averages of 3 Best
CFP Top 4 Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained
3. Washington 38.67 35.33 396.33
8. Michigan 8.67 33.67 420.33
12. Alabama 19.00 30.00 460.67
20. Clemson 15.67 36.67 471.33

(Blue=Washington, Maroon=Alabama, Orange=Clemson, Yellow=Michigan)

Discussion:

Defensively, it's interesting to see that the performances correlate so closely with the quality of opponents. This chart makes it abundantly clear that Michigan has not played an elite offensive opponent, especially compared to the other top teams. We've obviously handled every offense on our schedule, but the best teams we've faced have been good mostly because of their defenses (Wisconsin, Penn St, mostly Colorado). But I'd predict we give up closer to 30 against Ohio State than 10, and same goes for a potential playoff game against any of these offenses.

Regarding offense, there are some caveats that need to be addressed. First, Alabama lost the most points by far from defensive and special teams TDs. The defensive TDs don't really skew this analysis, but the special teams TDs probably do, as the offense very well could have gotten those yards and points. Second, Michigan definitely benefited in this quick and dirty analysis by playing a Penn St team that is now the #15 ranked defense while they were missing 8 defensive players.

With those caveats acknowledged, it's crazy how bad the Pac 12 is defensively compared to the Big 10. It's also interesting to see that these offenses are all very comparable in their peformances, with Clemson probably getting the edge on opponent adjusted performance.

At the end of the day, I think that Michigan has much to prove on defense as they haven't faced an offense that can compare to these other 3 teams. We'll obviously know more after the Ohio State game. Washington has the most to prove on both sides of the ball, but we already knew that because their SOS is atrocious. I think we can safely say that we know the most about Clemson, and that is that any playoff game against them will be a shoot out.

Playoffs?! You talking about playoffs?!?

Playoffs?! You talking about playoffs?!?

Submitted by Steves_Wolverines on September 21st, 2015 at 5:22 PM

Now that we're three weeks into the season, and conference play is on the horizon, let's discuss the playoffs. Is it too early? Sure. But that hasn't stopped anyone before.

So here's the question:

Which currently undefeated teams would you like to see in the college football playoffs? Since 3 of our most hated teams are in, near, around, and next to the current top 4, which 4 would you prefer to see make the field for this years playoffs?

The 4 I would like to see make the field:

1. LSU (SEC) : LSU and Les Miles has always been one of my favorite teams to root for. Been a fan since "The Bluegrass Miracle" hail mary in 2002 against Kentucky. I love their team this year. A once in a half century RB, a stellar defense, and a crazy head coach. What's not to love?

2. Oklahoma (Big-12): Always been a fan of Bob Stoops. He's had great success at OU, has 1 championship under his belt, and it'd be nice to see him and the Sooners back in the spotlight after a rough couple years (rough for OU standards).

3. Arizona (Pac-12): Why not? (ducks and runs for cover)

4. Clemson (ACC): Another team with a dynamic offense. They are fun to watch, and the lesser of the remaining evils. 

LSU vs Oklahoma in the Championship, with LSU taking it home. Yeah yeah SEC, but who cares. I'd like to see Les get another.