Would you take Braxton Miller if he transfers?

Would you take Braxton Miller if he transfers?

Submitted by lilpenny1316 on December 24th, 2014 at 11:59 AM

One of ESPN's college football analysts was on the radio this morning talking about OSU's QB situation next year.  They mentioned the possibility Braxton Miller graduates early and transfers to play somewhere else next year.  Would you like to see our next HC go after him?

If all these 70-85% gut feelings are accurate, then we know our next HC has run read option in San Fran.  I think Shane and our other QBs have the talent to be good, but I don't know if they would be our best option come late August.  I assume we could deal with a Buckeye transferring in since there seemed to not be a large, vocal opposition to Herman in the head coaching posts.  Is it worth it to "recruit" Braxton Miller?

Comparing injuries across the Big Ten

Comparing injuries across the Big Ten

Submitted by m1jjb00 on October 13th, 2014 at 12:47 PM

Alum 65 asked what did we do to the injury gods.  I was thinking the same thing as it seemed like a lot, but then I asked myself how it compares to other schools.  Some Internet searches convinced me that reporting was too inconsistent across schools to have a good, comparable measure.  Plus, it was really time consuming.

The table below presents an imperfect measure of starts lost.  Michigan appears second to Maryland in terms of injuries in the Big 10.

“Starts” lost*

 

Games

Played

Starts lost

as %

of gm.

Maryland

6

21

3.5

Michigan

7

22

3.1

Purdue

7

20

2.9

Minnesota

6

17

2.8

Rutgers

6

15

2.5

Wisconsin

6

12

2.0

Nebraska

6

12

2.0

Illinois

7

11

1.6

Iowa

6

8

1.3

Northwestern

6

7

1.2

Indiana

6

6

1.0

MichiganState

6

5

0.8

PennState

6

4

0.7

OhioState

5

2

0.4

* excludes second-string quarterbacks

For each player on the team that records at least one start in the NCAA database, the table sums up the number of games played according to the same database less the number of games the team played.  So, for instance, Michigan has played seven games.  Jehu Chesson started at least one game (four actually, which doesn’t matter) and has played in six.  So, he contributes 1 to Michigan’s total.  Kyle Kalis started only three games, but because he has played all seven he doesn’t contribute to the measure.  The theory is that if a player has started at least one game, he probably plays in all the games even if he doesn’t start unless he is injured or suspended.  You can’t just take everyone on the roster and calculate how many games weren’t played because you’ll end up just with an estimate of how coach’s play their benches and how many blowouts there were.

 

The one adjustment I made to the count was that I treated quarterbacks differently.  If a starter is replaced, he may not be hurt but not play in the game.  Moreover, if you end up starting a second-string QB in one game, you’ll end up treating him as hurt in all the other games that he may not have played.  Shane Morris is such an example, as he started against Minnesota, but did not play against Notre Dame when he wasn’t hurt.  So, he otherwise would have been counted as injured for Notre Dame had I not just excluded second-string quarterbacks.  I did go back and add in any games not played by obvious 1st string quarterbacks.  Rudock, Leidner, and Lunt missed games due to injury, while it doesn’t appear that Etling, who missed two games, was hurt.  (The theory is that reporting on starting quarterbacks is good enough across teams.)  I didn’t add back in an injury for Morris for the Penn State game, which he probably should be counted, just like I didn’t do any comparable searches for other second-string quarterbacks who may be injured.

It’s useful to acknowledge all of the other imperfections in this measure.

  • It includes suspensions, so Glasgow adds one to Michigan.
  • It doesn’t include obvious starters lost for the entire year before the season started, such as Braxton Miller.  Note that Noah Spence also doesn’t show up, as although he played in one game, he didn’t start in that game.
  • It doesn’t include injuries to important people on special teams or important backups that in a perfect world would be counted. 
  • No adjustments are made for how good the player was that was lost.  Nor does it weigh injuries if for instance they occur in the same area, which may compound the damage.
  • No allowances are made for guys who play in some games but are obviously not 100% (Jake Butt?).
  • Teams that have instability in their starting lineups will have a bigger pool to have a chance to show up as injured. 

 

The advantage is that it doesn’t depend on a detailed knowledge of the teams, which might then be biased as I at least know more about some teams more than others.

 

 

 

 

Braxton Miller Leaves Game With Injury

Braxton Miller Leaves Game With Injury

Submitted by Mercury Hayes on October 20th, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Braxton Miller was injured late in the third quarter after a long run when he was tackled by a Purdue defender. The Purdue player grabbed Miller's jersey and pulled him to the ground rather forcefully. Miller went down hard on his left shoulder and didn't move much. He laid on the field for quite a while and appeared to be crying. He then was helped off the field by two coaches and appeared that he could barely walk. A very mysterious injury.

Buckeye coaches appeared to want a horsecollar call, but the tackle was clean. Injury could have been avoided if Miller ran out of bounds. Sucks though. Looks painful whatever it is.

Dual QB Statistical Analysis

Dual QB Statistical Analysis

Submitted by Son of Lloyd Brady on June 21st, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Due to extreme boredom at work as well as my curiosity for how Denard matched up with other dual-threat QB’s last year, I decided to compare him with RGIII, KSU’s Collin Klein, Taylor Martinez, & Braxton Miller. None of my statistics are groundbreaking, I am not the Mathlete, but I do find the stats interesting and some a bit suprising.

Denard Robinson

 

COMP % 55.04%
YPA 8.422
ATT/TD 36.857
ATT/INT 17.200
TD/INT 1.333
QB-RATING 139.73
YDS/GM 90.462
YDS/RUSH 5.321
RUSH/TD 13.813

 

 

 

OOC STATS* (5 GAMES)

CONF STATS (8 GAMES)

1ST 6 GAMES

LAST 7 GAMES

HOME                (8 GAMES)

AWAY & NEUTRAL (5 GAMES)

SEASON

P.A.

93

165

117

141

140

118

258

P.A./GM

18.6

20.625

19.5

20.143

17.5

23.6

19.846

P.C.

44

98

67

75

84

58

142

P.C./GM

8.8

12.25

11.167

10.714

10.5

11.6

10.923

COMP %

47.31%

59.39%

57.26%

53.19%

60.00%

49.15%

55.04%

YDS

741

1432

1130

1043

1310

863

2173

YPA

7.968

8.679

9.658

7.397

9.357

7.314

8.422

TDS

8

12

10

10

13

7

20

INTS

7

8

9

6

8

7

15

ATT/TD

11.625

13.75

11.7

14.1

10.769

14.75

36.857

ATT/INT

13.286

20.625

13

23.5

17.5

16.857

17.200

TD/INT

1.14

1.50

1.11

1.67

1.63

1.00

1.33

RUSHES

84

137

102

119

141

80

221

RUSH/GM

16.8

17.125

17

17

17.625

16

17

YDS

565

611

720

456

919

257

1176

YDS/GM

113

76.375

120

65.143

114.875

51.4

90.462

YDS/RUSH

6.726

4.460

7.059

3.832

6.518

3.213

5.321

TDS

5

11

8

8

11

5

16

RUSH/TD

16.8

12.455

12.75

14.875

12.818

16

13.813

In out of conference games (OOC) Denard was atrocious throwing the ball, with nearly 1-1 TD/INT ratio and less than 48% completion. However, he was very effective running the ball at almost 7 YPC. In conference games, his passing stats improved quite a bit but rushing took a dip, except for RUSH/TD which actually increased. His statistics for home games compared to conference games are very similar to one another, as are away and neutral compared to OOC games.

Personally, I felt like Denard looked much better later in the season than his numbers indicate, and aside from his ATT’s/INT the last 7 games his numbers actually decreased in proficiency.

RGIII

COMP %

72.39%

YPA

10.679

ATT/TD

10.865

ATT/INT

67.000

TD/INT

6.167

QB-RATING

189.47

YDS/GM

53.769

YDS/RUSH

3.905

RUSH/TD

17.9

 

 

OOC STATS* (4 GAMES)

CONF STATS (9 GAMES)

1ST 6 GAMES

LAST 7 GAMES

HOME                (7 GAMES)

AWAY & NEUTRAL (6 GAMES)

SEASON

P.A.

114

288

182

220

208

194

402

P.A./GM

28.5

32

30.333

31.429

29.714

32.333

30.923

P.C.

93

198

142

149

154

137

291

P.C./GM

23.25

22

23.667

21.286

22

22.833

22.385

COMP %

81.58%

68.75%

78.02%

67.73%

74.04%

70.62%

72.39%

YDS

1257

3036

1950

2343

2379

1914

4293

YPA

11.026

10.542

10.714

10.650

11.438

9.866

10.679

TDS

14

23

22

15

23

14

37

INTS

0

6

2

4

1

5

6

ATT/TD

8.143

12.522

8.273

14.667

9.043

13.857

10.865

ATT/INT

#DIV/0!

48

91

55

208

38.8

67

TD/INT

#DIV/0!

3.833

11

3.75

23

2.8

6.167

RUSHES

42

137

72

107

97

82

179

RUSH/GM

10.5

15.222

12

15.286

13.857

13.667

13.769

YDS

222

477

295

404

431

268

699

YDS/GM

55.5

53

49.167

57.714

61.571

44.667

53.769

YDS/RUSH

5.286

3.482

4.097

3.776

4.443

3.268

3.905

TDS

2

8

2

8

5

5

10

RUSH/TD

21

17.125

36

13.375

19.4

16.4

17.9

 

 

If it seemed like RGIII was putting up video game numbers to open last season, well he wasn’t because you can’t put up numbers like that in video games. He started with amazing proficiency and I got all too well known #DIV/O! error message for his OOC ATT/INT & TD/INT because he didn’t throw any picks until conference play. Although his stats weren’t as gaudy in conference, I’m sure any QB in the nation would have accepted that level of play as he was still extremely effective.

What I find most amazing is that over the first 6 games, he averaged only one pick per 91 passing attempts. From there his stats plummeted to a dismal INT every 55 throws.

/s, obviously.

I’m not analyzing any more of his stats because they are all incredible and I guess that’s why he won that Heisman thing I keep hearing about.

 

Collin Klein

 

COMP %

57.30%

YPA

6.826

ATT/TD

21.615

ATT/INT

46.833

TD/INT

2.167

QB-RATING

125.64

YDS/GM

87.769

YDS/RUSH

3.599

RUSH/TD

11.741

 

 

 

OOC STATS* (4 GAMES)

CONF STATS (9 GAMES)

1ST 6 GAMES

LAST 7 GAMES

HOME                (7 GAMES)

AWAY & NEUTRAL (6 GAMES)

SEASON

P.A.

87

194

119

162

141

140

281

P.A./GM

21.750

21.556

19.833

23.143

20.143

23.333

21.615

P.C.

50

111

70

91

78

83

161

P.C./GM

12.5

12.333

11.667

13

11.143

13.833

12.385

COMP %

57.47%

57.22%

58.82%

56.17%

55.32%

59.29%

57.30%

YDS

508

1410

739

1179

957

961

1918

YPA

5.839

7.268

6.210

7.278

6.787

6.864

6.826

TDS

5

8

7

6

6

7

13

INTS

2

4

3

3

4

2

6

ATT/TD

17.4

24.25

17

27

23.5

20

21.615

ATT/INT

43.5

48.5

39.667

54

35.25

70

46.833

TD/INT

2.5

2

2.333

2

1.5

3.5

2.167

RUSHES

90

227

138

179

180

137

317

RUSH/GM

22.5

25.222

23

25.571

25.714

22.833

24.385

YDS

352

789

578

563

656

485

1141

YDS/GM

88

87.667

96.333

80.429

93.714

80.833

87.769

YDS/RUSH

3.911

3.476

4.188

3.145

3.644

3.540

3.599

TDS

4

23

10

17

14

13

27

RUSH/TD

22.5

9.870

13.8

10.529

12.857

10.538

11.741

 

 

Klein’s stats are very comparable to Denard’s, much more than I realized, and top to bottom seem very pedestrian until you notice that he rushed for 27 TD’s last season. His conference rushing numbers were outstanding as he averaged a TD about every 10 rushes. His passing numbers were solid but not spectacular, as there were no glaring weaknesses in his game and he was very consistent across the board whether home, away, in or OOC.

Interestingly, while Klein averaged a pass/game more than Denard, Denard was much more volatile, passing for more TD’s but also throwing more INT’s than Klein did TD’s. Overall Klein will not ‘wow’ you with his skill, but he is a good QB for what KSU is running and will keep them in games without losing it in bad decisions.

 

Taylor Martinez

 

COMP %

56.25%

YPA

7.253

ATT/TD

22.154

ATT/INT

36.000

TD/INT

1.625

QB-RATING

126.52

YDS/GM

67.231

YDS/RUSH

4.624

RUSH/TD

21

 

 

OOC STATS* (5 GAMES)

CONF STATS (8 GAMES)

1ST 6 GAMES

LAST 7 GAMES

HOME                (7 GAMES)

AWAY & NEUTRAL (6 GAMES)

SEASON

P.A.

80

187

129

159

158

130

288

P.A./GM

16

23.375

21.5

22.714

22.571

21.667

22.154

P.C.

53

109

70

92

94

68

162

P.C./GM

10.6

13.625

11.667

13.143

13.429

11.333

12.462

COMP %

66.25%

58.29%

54.26%

57.86%

59.49%

52.31%

56.25%

YDS

763

1326

1014

1075

1213

876

2089

YPA

9.538

7.091

7.860

6.761

7.677

6.738

7.253

TDS

5

8

6

7

9

4

13

INTS

3

5

6

2

4

4

8

ATT/TD

16

23.375

21.5

22.714

17.556

32.5

22.154

ATT/INT

26.667

37.4

21.5

79.5

39.5

32.5

36

TD/INT

1.667

1.6

1

3.5

2.25

1

1.625

RUSHES

79

110

100

89

96

93

189

RUSH/GM

19.75

12.222

16.667

12.714

13.714

15.5

14.538

YDS

458

416

584

290

582

292

874

YDS/GM

91.6

52

97.333

41.429

83.143

48.667

67.231

YDS/RUSH

5.797

3.782

5.84

3.258

6.063

3.140

4.624

TDS

7

2

9

0

7

2

9

RUSH/TD

11.286

55

11.111

#DIV/0!

13.714

46.5

21

Taylor Martinez began 2011 rushing the ball with great proficiency, scoring 9 TD’s in 6 games (once nearly every rushes) and averaging close to 6 YPC. His passing was an entirely different story as he had a 1:1 TD/INT ratio and completed less than 55% of his throws.

The second half of the season was a complete flip-flop for Martinez as his rushing YDS/GM fell from 97 to 41, YDS/RUSH down to 3.3, and he did not find the endzone on the gound. His passing numbers however were much better as his completion % increased to 57.9%, TD/INT ratio increased to 3.5:1, and he threw a pick every 80 passes rather than every 22 passes during the former part of the season.

While his numbers were not outstanding later in the season, Martinez improved greatly passing the ball as the season progressed. Some of the credit for this improved most definitely has to go to Rex Burkhead as he carried the rushing load for the team later in the season while Martinez focused on passing.

Braxton Miller**

COMP %

54.14%

YPA

7.382

ATT/TD

12.077

ATT/INT

39.250

TD/INT

3.250

QB-RATING

138.37

YDS/GM

59.583

YDS/RUSH

4.497

RUSH/TD

22.714

 

 

OOC STATS* (4 GAMES)

CONF STATS (8 GAMES)

1ST 6 GAMES

LAST 6 GAMES

HOME                (6   GAMES)

AWAY & NEUTRAL (6 GAMES)

SEASON

P.A.

52

105

51

106

75

82

157

P.A./GM

13

13.125

8.5

17.667

12.500

13.667

13.083

P.C.

33

52

26

59

37

48

85

P.C./GM

8.25

6.5

4.333

9.833

6.167

8.000

7.083

COMP %

63.46%

49.52%

50.98%

55.66%

49.33%

58.54%

54.14%

YDS

397

762

403

756

496

663

1159

YPA

7.635

7.257

7.902

7.132

6.613

8.085

7.382

TDS

5

8

5

8

5

8

13

INTS

1

3

2

2

2

2

4

ATT/TD

10.4

13.125

10.2

13.250

15.000

10.25

12.077

ATT/INT

52.000

35

25.5

53

37.5

41

39.25

TD/INT

5.000

2.667

2.5

4

2.5

4

3.25

RUSHES

45

105

61

98

83

76

159

RUSH/GM

11.25

13.125

10.167

16.333

13.833

12.667

13.250

YDS

165

550

243

472

395

320

715

YDS/GM

33

68.75

40.500

78.667

65.833

53.333

59.583

YDS/RUSH

3.667

5.238

3.984

4.816

4.759

4.211

4.497

TDS

0

7

0

7

5

2

7

RUSH/TD

#DIV/0!

15

#DIV/0!

14

16.600

38

22.714

And cue the talks of multiple Heisman’s coming from Columbus (coincidentally the same city I sit in as I type this). Actually, Braxton had quite a successful freshman campaign, with numbers very comparable to Denard’s. While Denard was more effective running, Miller actually had a better TD/INT ratio (we all know why from The Game) than did DR, albeit with a smaller sample size as OSU threw much less than Michigan.

Braxton improved substantially as he gained more experience towards the end of the season, seemingly in every category besides rushing. Overall, a solid but not spectacular season for Braxton and even though I hate to admit it, he will likely be a pain the ass for the conference for the next few years.

(All of the numbers for my statistics came from cfbstats.com)

(*OOC STATS INCLUDE BOWL GAMES)

(**MILLER DID NOT PLAY IN 2ND GAME OF SEASON)

Ohio game wrap (with pics!)

Ohio game wrap (with pics!)

Submitted by SFBayAreaBlue on December 1st, 2011 at 1:53 PM

Finally! No,... FINALLY!!!!!

So that game was closer than it should have been.  Raise your hand if you think the replay official had taken Ohio against the spread.  A touchdown would have made it a 10 point game with Michigan covering the 9 point spread. But let's bitch about that later.

WOOOOOO!!!!!!

10-2 with wins against ND and OSU! It's beyond all expectations. If we hadn't laid an egg at Iowa and gotten screwed by the refs that game, we'd be sitting with just one loss, 3 close wins, and 8 curb stompings.  You could say that I'm sold on this coaching staff.  I had no idea the coordinators and position coaches would be this good.  We still have a lot of issues with our WLB and our secondary, but we're light years ahead of where we were last season. 

On to the pics!

Fickell

I have to give him credit for coming out with an aggressive gameplan that put a lot of pressure on Braxton Miller's arm and Posey's ability to get separation.  It almost worked.  But the punt from the 36 yard line was a pure Zookian moment.

fickellMVP

It's 4th and 4, the game is a high scoring affair, you've been moving the ball pretty well with your mobile QB and there's a strong possibility that you'd only be gaining 16 yards with a punt anyway.  There's no debate.  This was a HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE decision.  Their punter did a good job executing the coffin corner kick, but that still doesn't justify the thought process.  

Add that to Fickell's continued clock mismanagement, and I doubt you'll find a single bucknut fan who is sad to see him go (or demoted, or whatever).  Not forcing a punt at the end of the first half was not that bad with a one point lead, but wasting 16 seconds for a 3rd down spike on the last drive was just awful.  You could even hear Spielman rolling his eyes at that. 

F* That guy

Miller is going to be a problem going forward.  He fits "Urban Meyer's offense" as Spielman called it during the game (so much for the two weeks of pretense) almost perfectly.  He doesn't throw a very accurate ball but *cough*tebow*cough* that doesn't mean he can't be successful in that offense. 

millerstats

It is interesting to note that Miller had 9 TD's and only 3 picks.  Yeah, he didn't have many yards or attempts and was under 50% passing, but that's still pretty remarkable for a true freshman.  He's been missing his receivers in safe ways and pulling it to run if the coverage doesn't look right.  That's pretty good ball security for someone you'd expect to misread coverages due to inexperience. 

Millerscrambleryanblitz

He started out the game doing what we expected, we just weren't ready for his speed on the first couple of plays.  On this 2nd and long, Ryan is blitzing from a walked off OLB spot.  

Millerscrambleryanblitz2

But his path is a little too much to the outside.  I know he's thinking about contain, but he's got to aim more directly at Boren and then use his arms to stay off the block. 

Millerscrambleryanblitz3

Instead, he gets pushed outside and the tackle is free to release onto Demens. 

Millerscrambleryanblitz4

Morgan has to do a better job of reading that lineman crossing the LOS and react quicker to Miller.  Ryan would adjust later, but this gave them an important early 1st down. 

kovacssack

Mattison really sold out on stopping the run and stopping Miller's scrambling.  On Kovacs' delayed blitz, you can see we did a much better job of filling the running lanes on the rush.  Morgan is playing spy (which was kind of useless...) and the D-line is free to shoot the gaps away from the blitzer. 

kovacssack2

But Miller is very elusive and showed great leg strength in getting away not only from Kovacs, but also RVB.  Fortunately Demens and Martin have followed the play allowing Kovacs a second shot at the sack. Meanwhile, Morgan is .... well I think Ohio watched a lot of film on Morgan and decided to go after him all game. 

rvbstuntsack

Martin and RVB were great all day (of course), and they were twisting on most passing downs.  This is a pretty good idea when the O-line you're facing is known to have communication problems. On this play RVB is supposed to go around Martin, but Brewster gives Martin a pretty good pop. 

rvbstuntsack2

That's no problem for the two seniors, RVB just decides to go first and Martin swings around.  

rvbstuntsack3

The center and guard are so concerned with Mike, they let VanBergen go free for the easy TFL.

millerqbdraw

Miller picked up 1st downs with his legs all day.  The early bombs really messed with our gameplan and gave him more room to run.  On this 3rd and long, we've got Kovacs in the box in our crazy lineup with all the guys on the line and different people dropping out. Because of the earlier passing success, three people are dropping into coverage, even though Ohio LOVES to call the QB draw in this situation.  

millerqbdraw2

The result is that Morgan got caught with his weight going the wrong direction and Miller galloped over Kovacs for a big gainer. 

kovacstfl

But I think Mattison just decided he wasn't going to let Boom Herron beat us.  I think Herron ended up with less than 40 yards because of plays like this.  Here we've got Kovacs coming off the receiver to run blitz. 

kovacstfl2

And again you can see the linemen shooting gaps away from him.

kovacstfl3

Kovacs gets in there so fast that both Boren and Posey are blocking air.  Jordan gets the TFL and the Ohio is stuck in another 3rd and long. 

Miller ran the speed option a lot the last few games and that continued against us.  On this touchdown, he cuts against the grain and makes Roh miss in space.  Spielman was babbling about how great a play call this was and how it was a counter speed option. 

milleroptioncounterTD

I call bullshit.  They definitely do have a counter speed option, but this play wasn't it.  You can tell because Roh is unblocked. On the designed counter, the tackle engages the end and tries to seal him inside or kick him outside. 

This looks more like improvisation by Miller. I think they just tell Posey to block on the backside like he means it on every play. They got a TD here simply on Miller's talent, not on any blocking scheme.  You can see he takes a hard jabstep upfield that fools Roh just enough so that he can get outside.  

millerjumpcut

After that he makes an amazing jumpcut and his momentum carries him into the endzone. 

millercounterspeedoptionPA

THIS is the counter speed option, except it's a playaction pass.  The tip off that it's a pass is that Miller turns away from the LOS instead of going nose towards it. 

millercounterspeedoptionPA2

It's a well designed play that turns into a rollout to the right.  They've got three layers with a deep corner, the intermediate cross, and Stonebrunner is going to release into the flat. If the Defense over pursues the rollout, there's even a throwback available to Herron. 

millercounterspeedoptionPA3

But Stonebrunner doesn't hold his block long enough or Miller doesn't get enough depth and Roh is right up in his face. 

millercounterspeedoptionPA4

A more experienced QB might have tried to hit #11 who is open, but like I said before, Miller has been very safe with the ball.  Morgan does a good job of knowing who he's playing against and comes up expecting the run instead of uselessly trailing the TE.  

millercounterspeedoptionPA5

He was wide open though.  And Denard made a similar play that turned a sack into a short gain. Maybe Miller will be making those plays in the years ahead.  Guh. 

mattisongoallineRPS

I'm just glad we'll have Mattison.  Because when push came to shove and we needed a stop on the goal-line in the 4th quarter, Mattison basically declared that Miller wasn't going to run the ball in.  And credit Kovacs for picking up the TE on playaction so that Miller didn't have an easy throw.  

F* this guy too

With only one game of film to watch, our DB's were not prepared for Posey's talent.  

poseywideopen

But after a couple of short passes to him, they were very concerned about his presence.  A little too concerned. 

poseywideopen2

If Gordon hadn't screwed the pooch on this, the ball was not well thrown and he could have given Brown a harder time catching it since Miller threw it to the wrong shoulder and brown had to turn around to find it. 

countessposeytriplemove

I'm going to give our DB's a tiny little bit of slack in saying they haven't faced anyone with Posey's skill except for Michael Floyd.  And they had a lot of safety help against Floyd that they didnt' get for this game.  Posey is as close to Mario Mannigham that I've seen on an oposing team.  He does a great job of getting on the DB's toes and making them turn their hips. But still...

countessposeytriplemove2

Even though this is a triple move, (headfake outside, cut inside, cut outside)...

countessposeytriplemove3

You can't let a guy get that wide open.  Lucky for us this duck was overthrown.  

poseypostTD

If you're going to put 8 men in the box and play man up against the WR, then freaking play man up.  Troy has Posey one on one, but because he's lined up so far back, there's no chance for him to make a play on anything but a fly.  

poseypostTD2

This deep cross was not a fly.

poseypostTD3

And it didn't help that Posey turned Troy around with an outside fake.  Amazingly, Miller hit him in stride (no it wasn't a tight spiral). 

poseyphew

Posey did it to all three of our DB's (Kovacs was essentially a LB this game).  On the last drive he turns around Floyd.  J.T. was thinking about getting an interception, and we almost paid dearly for it. 

poseyphew2

We were about a yard and a half from being down by a point.  There would have still been 1:30+ left on the clock, but I was pretty happy to see this ball hit the ground.  Our offense was pretty good, and Denard was pretty accurate, but no offense to Gibbons, I'm glad we didn't have to drive for a winning field goal.  

[hit the jump for the remainder]

Scouting: OSU vs PSU game notes

Scouting: OSU vs PSU game notes

Submitted by SFBayAreaBlue on November 24th, 2011 at 11:00 AM

Ed-Seth: Bump.

Talented BUT . . .

So I've watched about 7 of Ohio's games, (Brady Hoke has only watched 4, he clearly doesn't "Get It".  I mean what's the point of the countdown clock if you're not doing something every day to beat Ohio?  Doesn't that include watching ALL of their games? /sarcasm) and the team has lots of talent, as you would expect.  BUT...

Most of it is inexperienced, and the experienced parts of it are having trouble getting on the same page.  It's one thing for your QB to be young and dumb, it's another for your senior laden O-line to not be getting to their blocking assignments or your two upperclassmen running backs doing their impression of the keystone cops when you put them in the wildcat.  Those things are on the coaches, and it's been pretty clear for awhile that these coaches are on their way out.  (Regardless of what lies Urban is spinning)

The video above is pretty typical.  Shazier is stepping in for team captain Sweat.  He's got loads of talent, but if you look carefully, you'll see that a lot of the plays he's making are downfield (when they're not running right at him) because he's slow to react and diagnose.  Once he get's going, he's got a lot of speed to get there, and he likes to hit, but not very much form on the tackle because it seems like he's more interested in making a big hit. 

When I watch this edition of OSU, I see lots of playmakers, but I don't see a cohesive team. 

OSU on O

The Speed Option

The two plays I worry about from Braxton Miller are the QB lead draw and the speed option.  He's also dangerous when he scrambles, but I feel like our DL can be disciplined enough to keep him in the pocket.  I've already focused on his scrambling and the lead draws in the previous scouting reports, so this time I'm focusing on the speed option, which they ran much better this game, and ran more often. 

pistolspeedoption

They like to run out of the pistol, and they'll run it to either the weak side or the strong side depending on what the defense does.  But they do prefer running to their right, which is behind Shugarts.  PSU shows a cover 2, so there's a numbers advantage to the left side. 

pistolspeedoption2

I kinda think PSU is a little bit miss aligned for this formation, but it seems like they had a CB blitz called on the weakside.  The option motion just goes away from it and those two guys are not going to be a factor in the play.

pistolspeedoption3

It's just zone blocking and this is one of the plays where the O-line does a good job of scraping to the 2nd level. 

pistolspeedoption4

Miller looked much better this game at taking the hole that is in front of him.  But from a scouting standpoint, he almost never pitches.  So it kind of seems like a waste of a player.  They had one play where they did the power lead, which I would be even more concerned with.  

speedoptionPA

So now that they've hurt PSU with the base play, it's time for the companion playaction. PSU had 8 men in the box for a lot of the 1st quarter, but backed off a bit after Miller hit a couple of passes. Here they've only got 7 in the box. 

speedoptionPA2

The option motion starts to the right, but then Miller jabs his foot in the ground and gets depth to throw.  The key to reading this play is that the O-Line is clearly in pass blocking mode. The backpeddaling uncovered guard is a dead giveaway. 

speedoptionPA3

PSU does a great job of rushing with discipline, no one is over-running Miller, and they get a free rusher coming up the middle. 

speedoptionPA4

Miller will usually make the first man miss, but because of the spread out pocket and controlled rush by the D-line, he's got no place to go. 

speedoptionTD

[Ed-Seth: take the jump for the much more.]

Scouting: OSU vs Purdue game notes

Scouting: OSU vs Purdue game notes

Submitted by SFBayAreaBlue on November 23rd, 2011 at 10:20 AM

[ed: bump]

Know your enemy

Not much time this week, but I wanted to put up some plays from the OSU games, Neb game wrap will come out during the down time before the bowl game.  Win or lose vs TSIO, revisiting the beatdown will be something fun to do in a week or so. 

Unbalanced I-Form

OSU used a lot of unbalanced sets against Purdue, so our CB's have to be ready for it and talk to the LB's so that we can get properly aligned. 

unbalancedofftackle

On this play, the boilers are in man coverage so when the TE flops, the OLB goes with him. This means the the DE no longer has contain so both he and the DT on that side shift down a gap. The OLB needs to be aware that his man is now ineligible to go downfield, so he doesn't have any coverage responsibilities, or he's got backs coming out of the backfield. 

unbalancedofftackle2

Purdue is betting against Miller's passing game and has 8 in the box, 9 if you count that CB who is kind of playing center field on the backside. The two receivers are man'd up by the CB and FS

unbalancedofftackle3

OSU continues to have problems identifying who to block with their zone scheme.  Both the split end and the LG completely whiff leaving the two frontside LB's unblocked. 

unbalancedofftackle4

There is a danger of a playaction rollout on this play.  If that safety is so far off of the split end, there's a lot of room for him to do a post deep cross, so it's important for the backside DE to keep contain and respect Miller on a rollout. 

unbalancedofftackle5

With the missed block, this is an easy TFL for purdue, but their frontside defenders have also beaten their blockers since they maintained outside leverage and the LB forced the RB to bounce. 

unbalancedweaklead

On this play we've got the same formation, but it's flipped.  Again, Purdue is selling out against the run.  They're showing 9 in the box as that CB is faking a blitz, but he steps back and is in man coverage with the split end.  Again, the TE is inelligible, so guy #5 up there has contain on the strong side and guy #1 has contain on the weakside. 

unbalancedweaklead2

Again, there's a real danger for playaction on that post or crossing route.  The SAM backer has to get into a pass drop if he reads pass blocking from the linemen.  This play turns into a lead draw, so he's okay, but he's in a tough position because he has to help in coverage and watch for the cutback once he sees that the action is going weakside. Fortunately for Purude, the DE beats his block and the FB fails to pick him up. 

unbalancedweaklead3

So this results in another TFL, but if that SAM evacuates his area too quickly, there's going to be a huge cutback lane.  

[ed: time to jump]

Scouting OSU vs. Neb game notes

Scouting OSU vs. Neb game notes

Submitted by SFBayAreaBlue on November 18th, 2011 at 12:29 AM

Programming note: Next week will be pretty busy with thanksgiving break and all, so I'm gonna go ahead and put up all my OSU stuff this week.  The Nebraska game wrap might be a week late too, especially if we don't win.  

Old Scouting Report is Old

There are just way too many red and white teams in this league now.  

I had watched this game when it happened and had written up some notes and was planning to post it after the MSU game, but then I spent the week cursing at inanimate objects and hoping MSU's random bands of roving thugs would target Gholston.  

There's been a lot of personnel changes since then so I've thrown out the old notes and started from scratch.  

Both teams were coming off loses, Nebraska had just been blown out by Wisconsin thanks to a handful of Martinez interceptions and OSU had been blitzed to death by sparty. You can see the effect of both those games on some of the early playcalling in this one.

OSU on offense

No Dan Herron, and Shugarts hadn't gotten hurt yet.  The offense was all about Hall and Stonebrunner and Miller's legs until he got hurt. 

Miller is a scrambler

Like I said in the QB comparisons, Miller is more of a natural scrambler rather than an option runner. 

nebstuntmillerscramble

On this play, the left side of the Nebraska D-line is going to stunt  to get pressure on third down.

nebstuntmillerscramble2

There's a missed holding call, but whatever.  The DT gets around and tries an outside speedrush against Shugarts

nebstuntmillerscramble3

This is a mistake against Miller.  You want to keep him in front of you and don't open up big lanes like this.  As soon as he feels the end rushers go past him, his first instinct is to scramble upfield. If you rush under control, he'll scramble laterally and can be coralled for a sack.

neballoutblitz

MSU had a lot of success the previous week by  timing the snap and sending blitzers up the A gap. Nebraska tried it early, but didn't really get there because their timing wasn't as good.  After this play they didn't really blitz much until Bauserman was in the game. 

neballoutblitz2

This is a 6 man blitz with one of the linebackers dropping into coverage.

neballoutblitz3

There's a little bit of a twist going on with the right DE, but this was a called QB lead draw all the way. The blitzer gets blocked by the RB and Miller jabs his back foot and is off into the secondary. 

neballoutblitz4

Without any LBs on that side and the secondary playing man coverage, this turned into a big run for MIller.

millersflarescramble

This play shows just how quickly Miller will bail on a play.  It's just a flare to hall at the top of the screen, but the Nebraska rusher gets a good bull rush.  

millersflarescramble2

When the defender jumps, Braxton decides he's seen enough and pulls down the ball.

millersflarescramble3

Instead of looking for another target, he tucks the ball and runs. 

Hyde's TD

Hyde got a lot of carries in the early part of the season when both Hall and Herron were doing their NCAA penance. That's dropped off considerably since Herron came back.  He's got good straight line speed, especially for being a larger back, but his vision isn't very good.  He's like Stephen Hopkins but with more speed. He still gets some duty on kickoffs, but mostly as the lead blocker for Hall.

hydetd

You can see OSU's commitment to zone blocking on this play.  It looks like a lead play because of the FB, but Hyde's route on the handoff indicates that he's free to pick whatever hole opens up.  At the snap, all the motion is to the left.  The Nebraska D-Line responds by moving with the slanting linemen. Miller does a reverse pivot. 

hydetd2

But Hyde's aiming poing is not following Boren, the FB, instead he's aiming for the center of the line and bending back against the grain.  For some reason, nebraska has a DB playing backside contain, and the Will linebacker has been fooled by Boren's path. 

hydetd3

That DB doesn't understand "run fits" so he wasn't flowing the the D-Line and there's a huge gap between him and the DE that Hyde thanks him very much for.  The weakside LB has over run the play and can't get back to make an arm tackle.  Once Hyde gets past those two, he's pretty much untouched all the way to the endzone.

Throwback to Stonebrunner

With Corey Brown out and no one sure what Devier Posey will do, the RB's and Stonebrunner will be the focus of the passing game. This throwback screen should look familiar to Michigan fans, with the exception of the TE getting the ball instead of Vincent Smith. 

stonebrunnerthrowback

Miller is going to roll out to the right while the O-line shows pass blocking. 

stonebrunnerthrowback2

Stonebrunner does an excellent job of selling the block and the OLB is completely caught flatfooted.

stonebrunnerthrowback3

Stonebrunner comes off of contact and opens up for the pass, it's the center that gets the OLB and the other interior linemen are heading downfield

stonebrunnerthrowback4

The blocking is setup well and Stonebrunner has enough speed for an easy 30+ yard TD

Nebraska on offense

Nebraska does a lot of different things on offense.  They have the spread/zone read stuff, the power running game, and also the veer option offense.  Burkehead will even get back in the shotgun to run some wildcat, probably because he's better at READING on the zone read plays than Martinez. 

Martinez

After taking a lot heat for the interceptions against Wisconsin, you got the feeling that he started out the game a little gunshy against TSIO.

passingchart

That's his passing chart with about 4 minutes to go in the first half.  Nothing deep or risky, and a double digit deficit to show for his 100% completion percentage.  So Nebraska gets the ball realizing they've got to pass deep to soften up the defense.

martineztechnique

This is Martinez trying to throw a deep ball.  

taylorINT

And this is the result.  That receiver is kinda open.  I mean, yes, he's got 4 guys around him, but none within a 5 yard radius.  Nebraska fans understand our pain when it comes to armpunts.

nebmidlinezoneread

Where Martinez is realy dangerous is when he gets to accelerate straight ahead. This is a midline option keeper even though it looks like an outside zone read.  You can tell by the pulling guard who goes off tackle.  I think the sideline tells Martinez before the play whether or not to keep the ball on most plays.  That would explain a lot of his "bad reads" and it makes sense that Bo Pelini would be a control freak (see below).

nebmidlinezoneread2

Burkehead's fake holds the contain man.  The pulling lineman takes out the LB and the rest of the O-line is getting a good push up the middle. 

nebmidlinezoneread3

This is the kind of run that Martinez loves.  He's not the kind of guy that will cut back across the entire field, but he's very good at reading the blocks in front of him and making quick cuts without losing any speed.  

Inverted T series

The way you design an offense is that you have a series of plays that work together or are out of the same formation.  Sometimes during the game you have to scrap a series if the first couple plays don't work.  But if the first play works for a big gainer, you can expect the defense to adjust and that opens up the companion plays. 

nebinvertedT

Nebraska stumbled across such an opportunity in the middle of the 3rd quarter with this Inverted T formation.  Some people call this a Diamond, but with the QB in the shotgun it looks more like a "T" to me.  But the stumpy part is away from the LOS so I call it inverted. Here's what the standard T form looks like. 

nebinvertedT2

This is just a power sweep option.  The odd thing is that Burkehead has a longer ways to go to get to his block, but he's a fast guy, so it's not a problem.  The neat thing about this formation is that you can envision all kinds of counters and double option plays where the person in #2's position can pitch it to Burkehead or handoff to the the other HB coming back on the counter.  

nebinvertedT3

OSU is overreacting the motion and the whole right side of the defense is flowing.  Ironically, the backside of the defense isn't reacting enough and the result is a gaping hole down the middle of the field. 

nebinvertedT4

I don't the think DE ever actually saw the ball because he keeps running with #2 even after Martinez zooms past him. 

nebinvertedT5

Against a normal QB, the safety and LB should have been able to stop this for a large gainer, but because they reacted slowly and because Martinez is already up to full speed, he blows by them like they're standing still. 

nebinvertedT6

From the endzone shot you can see just how wide open that running lane was. 

nebinvertedTredux

A little later, they come back to the same formation, but this time the give is called.  It doesn't work as well because the ball is on the hash and they're running into the sideline.  But the point is to see how the defense has adjusted.  The weakside linebacker is way closer to the play this time and #7 Howard is up in bump and run to take on the blocking in case there's a counter or reverse coming.  

nebinvertedTredux2

The DE is completely befuddled by this play.  He's nowhere near the mesh point so he can't help on a Martinez keep.  He's pointing out Burkehead to .....uh.... And he's not quick enough to get #2. 

nebinvertedTredux3

Again the backside has been completely sealed off, and Martinez woulda had plenty of room for a big gain if not enough for a TD like before.  But I'm getting more convinced that he's not actually allowed to "read" the play. As it is, this play gets about 10 yards which coulda been a lot more if they hadn't run into the sideline. 

nebinvertedTPA

A little later comes the payoff.  They've got bump and run on the short side and they give them the same backfield motion. 

nebinvertedTPA2

But if the LB's and Safeties had been reading the O-line better, they'd have seen this was a pass. 

nebinvertedTPA3

Martinez drops a couple steps to give his receiver time to get open.

nebinvertedTPA4

And the safeties are both dead.  It's interesting that they run the same route with both WR, this shows a kind of lack of sophistication in the passing game.  And it's only a 2 man route. But both WR had gotten a step on the DB's and this play get's Nebraska back within one TD.

Burkehead

He's not the fastest guy, but he's a solid football player.  Martinez is probably more dangerous, but you've got to stop Burkehead first to slow down this offense. 

osuDEcrash

This is an inside zone that should look pretty familiar to michigan fans.  the H-back is coming across to either block the DE or go out in a pass route.  There's also some bubblesceen motion with the slot receiver. 

osuDEcrash2

The DE is crashing hard and the H-back completely misses him.  Martinez either missed the read, or it was a give all the way called by the sideline. .

osuDEcrash3

If Martinez had kept it, there was a lot of open space once he cleared the DE. The lead blocker would have taken out the safety, 54 is taking to strong of an angle, and the other DB is too concerned with the bubble to have stopped Taylor.  Instead #94 gets the TFL on Burkehead since #93 had gotten good penetration and Burkehead had to stop his feet.

burkeheadjumpcut

On the game tying TD, Burkehead showed a nice jumpcut. (If you're not sure what a jumpcut is, here's a nice example of Miller doing one.) He gets the ball on the flare after Martinez scrambles around a bit to avoid the pressure. 

burkeheadjumpcut2

The DB had him lined up for a big hit, except he jumps out of the way. 

burkeheadjumpcut3

And with the big blitz called, the rest of the secondary is in tight man coverage and Burkehead has no one between him and the endzone. 

Derpidy-derp-derp

So it was raining off and on during that game, which led to some amusing moments and a lot of slipping. 

martinezslip

Martinez's throwing motion is even uglier when he's falling down. 

hallslip

Both sides were having trouble with it. 

millerhurt

And Miller turned his ankle as he slipped on a cut. 

bausermanlol

Then Bauserman came in and promptly did this. 

bausermanlolol

At least on that previous picture he was under pressure.  On this one he's got no one to blame but himself. 

bausermanlolol2

That ball is JUUUUUSSST a bit overthrown. 

bausermanlolol3

Ok, maybe a bit more. But if you're wondering about the genesis of the the Bauserman Passing Chart, it was probably this play. 

ETC:

  • Bo Pelini has anger issues. 

pelinimad