Bowl Game Picks/Betting/Watchability by S&P+ Ratings

Bowl Game Picks/Betting/Watchability by S&P+ Ratings

Submitted by goblueram on December 8th, 2016 at 12:50 PM

I frequently use S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders for betting purposes against Vegas spreads (from Bovada).  For the bowl games, an interested application of this data is a "Game Watchability" ranking (as requested by 707Oxford).

To that end, here are the bowl games ranked by Total S&P Margin, essentially showing where the best combination of teams are playing each other.  Interestingly enough, Michigan-Florida State comes in just ahead of the OSU-Clemson playoff semifinal at 2nd overall.

Date Favorite Underdog Vegas Spread Favorite S&P+ Margin Underdog
S&P+ Margin

Total S&P Value

Total S&P Value Rank

S&P Spread S&P - Vegas Spread S&P - Vegas Spread
(Abs. Val)
Bet On Bet Confidence Rank
12/31/16 15:00 Alabama Washington 17 31.5 21.8 53.3 1 9.7 -7.3 7.3 Underdog 5
12/30/16 20:00 Michigan Florida State 7 31.3 19.5 50.8 2 11.8 4.8 4.8 Favorite 10
12/31/16 19:00 Ohio State Clemson 3 27.6 22.7 50.3 3 4.9 1.9 1.9 Favorite 20
01/02/17 17:00 USC Penn State 7 20.5 17 37.5 4 3.5 -3.5 3.5 Underdog 17
01/02/17 13:00 Wisconsin Western Michigan 7.5 15.8 7.9 23.7 5 7.9 0.4 0.4 Favorite 31
12/20/16 19:00 Western Kentucky Memphis 4.5 16 7.3 23.3 6 8.7 4.2 4.2 Favorite 12
12/29/16 21:00 Colorado Oklahoma State 3 13.4 9.4 22.8 7 4 1 1 Favorite 26
12/30/16 14:00 Stanford North Carolina 3.5 11.3 11.1 22.4 8 0.2 -3.3 3.3 Underdog 18
12/28/16 17:30 Miami-FL West Virginia 3 16.1 5.1 21.2 9 11 8 8 Favorite 3
01/02/17 13:00 Florida Iowa 2.5 7.2 11.9 19.1 10 -4.7 -7.2 7.2 Underdog 6
12/17/16 15:30 Houston San Diego State 3 10.1 6.5 16.6 11 3.6 0.6 0.6 Favorite 29
12/17/16 17:30 Toledo Appalachian State 1 8.1 8.4 16.5 12 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 Underdog 23
12/27/16 19:00 Washington State Minnesota 7 8.3 7.8 16.1 13 0.5 -6.5 6.5 Underdog 8
12/28/16 14:00 Pittsburgh Northwestern 5 10.5 5.4 15.9 14 5.1 0.1 0.1 Favorite 34
12/30/16 15:30 Tennessee Nebraska 3 7.1 8.2 15.3 15 -1.1 -4.1 4.1 Underdog 14
12/27/16 22:15 Boise State Baylor 7.5 16 -1.4 14.6 16 17.4 9.9 9.9 Favorite 1
12/29/16 17:30 Virginia Tech Arkansas 7 10.8 3.6 14.4 17 7.2 0.2 0.2 Favorite 33
12/28/16 20:30 Utah Indiana 8 7.3 5.4 12.7 18 1.9 -6.1 6.1 Underdog 9
12/27/16 15:30 Temple Wake Forest 13 12.9 -1.2 11.7 19 14.1 1.1 1.1 Favorite 25
12/26/16 17:00 NC State Vanderbilt 4 9.7 -1.9 7.8 20 11.6 7.6 7.6 Favorite 4
12/21/16 21:00 BYU Wyoming 8.5 8.4 -0.8 7.6 21 9.2 0.7 0.7 Favorite 28
12/30/16 12:00 Georgia TCU 1 -0.6 7.1 6.5 22 -7.7 -8.7 8.7 Underdog 2
12/31/16 11:00 Georgia Tech Kentucky 3.5 5.3 0.2 5.5 23 5.1 1.6 1.6 Favorite 22
12/22/16 19:00 Colorado State Idaho 13.5 10.9 -7.2 3.7 24 18.1 4.6 4.6 Favorite 11
12/19/16 14:30 Tulsa Central Michigan 11.5 5.8 -3.9 1.9 25 9.7 -1.8 1.8 Underdog 21
12/29/16 14:00 South Florida South Carolina 10.5 7.5 -6.9 0.6 26 14.4 3.9 3.9 Favorite 15
12/26/16 11:00 Mississippi State Miami-OH 12.5 3 -2.8 0.2 27 5.8 -6.7 6.7 Underdog 7
12/23/16 20:00 Troy Ohio 3.5 -0.5 -4.5 -5 28 4 0.5 0.5 Favorite 30
12/23/16 13:00 Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 3.5 -0.3 -4.9 -5.2 29 4.6 1.1 1.1 Favorite 24
12/30/16 17:30 Air Force South Alabama 12.5 1.6 -7.1 -5.5 30 8.7 -3.8 3.8 Underdog 16
12/17/16 17:30 Central Florida Arkansas State 6 -0.8 -5.9 -6.7 31 5.1 -0.9 0.9 Underdog 27
12/26/16 14:30 Maryland Boston College 2 -5.3 -5.3 -10.6 32 0 -2 2 Underdog 19
12/17/16 14:00 New Mexico UTSA 7 -1.9 -9.2 -11.1 33 7.3 0.3 0.3 Favorite 32
12/17/16 21:00 Southern Miss UL-Lafayette 3.5 -3.3 -10.9 -14.2 34 7.6 4.1 4.1 Favorite 13

An alternate view that I use for betting purposes (or pick em) compares the S&P Margin between favorite and underdog against the Vegas lines and look for higher discrepancies.  The columns to the right will show these differences, and rank the games by confidence according to that margin.  This is applicable for betting/picking against the spread of course.  

Date Favorite Underdog Vegas Spread Favorite S&P+ Margin Underdog
S&P+ Margin
Total S&P Value Total S&P Value Rank S&P Spread S&P - Vegas Spread S&P - Vegas Spread
(Abs. Val)

Bet On

Bet Confidence Rank

12/27/16 22:15 Boise State Baylor 7.5 16 -1.4 14.6 16 17.4 9.9 9.9 Favorite 1
12/30/16 12:00 Georgia TCU 1 -0.6 7.1 6.5 22 -7.7 -8.7 8.7 Underdog 2
12/28/16 17:30 Miami-FL West Virginia 3 16.1 5.1 21.2 9 11 8 8 Favorite 3
12/26/16 17:00 NC State Vanderbilt 4 9.7 -1.9 7.8 20 11.6 7.6 7.6 Favorite 4
12/31/16 15:00 Alabama Washington 17 31.5 21.8 53.3 1 9.7 -7.3 7.3 Underdog 5
01/02/17 13:00 Florida Iowa 2.5 7.2 11.9 19.1 10 -4.7 -7.2 7.2 Underdog 6
12/26/16 11:00 Mississippi State Miami-OH 12.5 3 -2.8 0.2 27 5.8 -6.7 6.7 Underdog 7
12/27/16 19:00 Washington State Minnesota 7 8.3 7.8 16.1 13 0.5 -6.5 6.5 Underdog 8
12/28/16 20:30 Utah Indiana 8 7.3 5.4 12.7 18 1.9 -6.1 6.1 Underdog 9
12/30/16 20:00 Michigan Florida State 7 31.3 19.5 50.8 2 11.8 4.8 4.8 Favorite 10
12/22/16 19:00 Colorado State Idaho 13.5 10.9 -7.2 3.7 24 18.1 4.6 4.6 Favorite 11
12/20/16 19:00 Western Kentucky Memphis 4.5 16 7.3 23.3 6 8.7 4.2 4.2 Favorite 12
12/17/16 21:00 Southern Miss UL-Lafayette 3.5 -3.3 -10.9 -14.2 34 7.6 4.1 4.1 Favorite 13
12/30/16 15:30 Tennessee Nebraska 3 7.1 8.2 15.3 15 -1.1 -4.1 4.1 Underdog 14
12/29/16 14:00 South Florida South Carolina 10.5 7.5 -6.9 0.6 26 14.4 3.9 3.9 Favorite 15
12/30/16 17:30 Air Force South Alabama 12.5 1.6 -7.1 -5.5 30 8.7 -3.8 3.8 Underdog 16
01/02/17 17:00 USC Penn State 7 20.5 17 37.5 4 3.5 -3.5 3.5 Underdog 17
12/30/16 14:00 Stanford North Carolina 3.5 11.3 11.1 22.4 8 0.2 -3.3 3.3 Underdog 18
12/26/16 14:30 Maryland Boston College 2 -5.3 -5.3 -10.6 32 0 -2 2 Underdog 19
12/31/16 19:00 Ohio State Clemson 3 27.6 22.7 50.3 3 4.9 1.9 1.9 Favorite 20
12/19/16 14:30 Tulsa Central Michigan 11.5 5.8 -3.9 1.9 25 9.7 -1.8 1.8 Underdog 21
12/31/16 11:00 Georgia Tech Kentucky 3.5 5.3 0.2 5.5 23 5.1 1.6 1.6 Favorite 22
12/17/16 17:30 Toledo Appalachian State 1 8.1 8.4 16.5 12 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 Underdog 23
12/23/16 13:00 Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 3.5 -0.3 -4.9 -5.2 29 4.6 1.1 1.1 Favorite 24
12/27/16 15:30 Temple Wake Forest 13 12.9 -1.2 11.7 19 14.1 1.1 1.1 Favorite 25
12/29/16 21:00 Colorado Oklahoma State 3 13.4 9.4 22.8 7 4 1 1 Favorite 26
12/17/16 17:30 Central Florida Arkansas State 6 -0.8 -5.9 -6.7 31 5.1 -0.9 0.9 Underdog 27
12/21/16 21:00 BYU Wyoming 8.5 8.4 -0.8 7.6 21 9.2 0.7 0.7 Favorite 28
12/17/16 15:30 Houston San Diego State 3 10.1 6.5 16.6 11 3.6 0.6 0.6 Favorite 29
12/23/16 20:00 Troy Ohio 3.5 -0.5 -4.5 -5 28 4 0.5 0.5 Favorite 30
01/02/17 13:00 Wisconsin Western Michigan 7.5 15.8 7.9 23.7 5 7.9 0.4 0.4 Favorite 31
12/17/16 14:00 New Mexico UTSA 7 -1.9 -9.2 -11.1 33 7.3 0.3 0.3 Favorite 32
12/29/16 17:30 Virginia Tech Arkansas 7 10.8 3.6 14.4 17 7.2 0.2 0.2 Favorite 33
12/28/16 14:00 Pittsburgh Northwestern 5 10.5 5.4 15.9 14 5.1 0.1 0.1 Favorite 34

 

Peach Bowl Open Thread

Peach Bowl Open Thread

Submitted by Padog on December 31st, 2014 at 12:28 PM

Ole Miss Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs at 12:30.

At the Georgia Dome.

Ole Miss Leaders:

Passing: Wallace - 219-358, 3085 yds, 22 tds

Rushing: Walton - 98 car, 583 yds, 5 tds

Receiving: Sanders - 39 rec, 696 yds, 6 tds

TCU Leaders:

Passing: Boykin - 279-461, 3714 yds, 30 tds

Rushing: Green - 111 car, 854 yds, 8 tds

Receving: Doctson - 59 rec, 959 yds, 9 tds

It is on ESPN.

Darren Rovell: Amount of Bowl Tickets sold by school

Darren Rovell: Amount of Bowl Tickets sold by school

Submitted by TheJoker on December 27th, 2013 at 2:18 PM
Darren Rovell put out some statistics on the percentages of bowl tickets sold by each school.
 
 

Schools that sold out of its bowl tickets: Auburn, FSU, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Stanford, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Missouri, Texas

 

More schools that sold out of its bowl tickets: Alabama Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Bowling Green.

 

Schools by % of allotted tickets sold: Iowa 95%, Louisville 88%, Baylor 71% Maryland 70%, Utah State 67%, Kansas St 55%

 

Schools by allotted % of bowl tickets sold: Michigan 51% LSU 50%, Ohio State 44%, Wisconsin 32%

 

Minnesota has sold only 29% of their bowl ticket allotment.

 

 

BONUS: Sparty Inferiority complex sighting

 

@darrenrovell @Rational_Tigers how about MSU, Rovell? They're kind of in a bigger bowl than U of M, no?

Does UM deserve a bowl in Orlando or Tampa? A surprising answer.

Does UM deserve a bowl in Orlando or Tampa? A surprising answer.

Submitted by michelin on December 2nd, 2012 at 1:12 PM

While a thread below considers what bowl opponent IS likely for UM, what bowl we SHOULD be going to?

Although some uncertainty remains, most people expect NU and NEB to go to the CapOne and Outback Bowls over UM.  The reason is that the B1G sends a team to the Capitol One (or Outback) if it has two more wins (or two fewer losses) than its competitor.*

WIth this rule, however, teams with far easier out-of-conference (OOC) games are much more likely to win the higher  bowl bids. And this year, unfortunately, UM had a much tougher schedule.  It played its toughest OOC games on the road vs. teams with an average Sagarin PREDICTOR rank  of #2, both on the road.  NEB and NU played vs. opponents with an average rank of about #43, including one home game.**

Partly as a result, UM has by far the highest Sagarin rank (UM #24, NEB #29, NU #38).   Indeed, even according  to the final BCS rankings, UM clearly would be ranked above NU (and probably NEB).  So, it should be going either to the CapOne or Outback bowl, right?

Maybe not.

Imagine what would happen If the B1G were unified once again, without the unfair divisions.  Then, if it still wanted a title game, perhaps it should be sending the 2 teams with the highest BCS ranks.  So, UM would have played NEB for the title.  Um would not have to play on the road, like the last game.  It would have to play not with its 3rd string QB.  It would have Devin Gardner.  And it probably would have Denard Robinson  In fact, playing vs. a NEB team that just gave up 70 points to Wisc, Robinson would likely set the all-time NCAA QB rushing record in a big UM win.

But then, like now, UM would probably not going to the CapOne or Outback bowl. 

In this alternate universe where the B1G has rational rules, UM would be going to the Rose Bowl.

_________

*These are the only rules I could find on the web, as reported by Rittenberg in 2011.  So, I am assuming the rules have not changed.  http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/39509/reviewing-b1gs-bowl-sele…

**I report the Sagarin PREDICTOR rankings because these are the ones most likely to predict actual game outcomes.  Here are Sagarin PREDICTOR rank and rating, average Sagarin rank of the top 2 OOC opponents and B1G record for each team.

UM #24 82.05   TOP 2 OOC OPPONENTS; ROAD ND #1 AND ALA#3 (#1-2 BCS), B1G 6-2

NEB  #29 80.04  HOME ARKANSAS STATE #54, ROAD UCLA #19, B1G 7-2

NU #38 78.29  HOME VANDY #35 ROAD SYRACUSE #50, B1G 5-3

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Jerry Palm: Rose Bowl for Michigan

Jerry Palm: Rose Bowl for Michigan

Submitted by Soulfire21 on August 2nd, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Jerry Palm released his 2012-2013 bowl projections that include Michigan (Big Ten Champ) facing Oregon (Pac-12 # 2, USC gets picked for the MNCG).

Obligatory statement about the utter ridiculousness of predicting bowl games before a single game of the season has been played?  Check.

The reason I bring this up (as opposed to other prognosticators) is that last year around this time, he had Michigan in a BCS bowl (the Fiesta) and most people were taken aback at his "silly" (but not so silly looking back on it) faith in Michigan.

And it's not just that he correctly predicted Michigan into a BCS bowl, he also predicted Michigan's losses to MSU and Iowa.

At the very least, it's nice to see us in the conversation for high-profile bowls, championships, etc.  You know, how it should be.

Sugar Bowl Ticket Info

Sugar Bowl Ticket Info

Submitted by codeBLUE11 on December 4th, 2011 at 9:50 PM

The athletic department has sent out an email detailing ticket information for the Sugar Bowl.

Students: up to 8 tickets can be purchased for $97 a piece on mgoblue.com/tickets starting Monday, December 5 at 8:30 am on a first-come first-served basis.

General Public:  $125 (Terrace), $145 (Plaza), $155 (Premium Terrace), $175 (Mezzanine Endzone) or $185 (Club) also on mgoblue.com/tickets

Deadline for ordering is Thursday, December 8th at 5pm. All information can be found here: http://www.mgoblue.com/tickets/fbl-bowl-tickets.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=234750&hq_l=2&hq_v=a58e077bf2

Edit: Here is the seating chart for the superdome. Appears that the blue area is either $125 or $155 depending on location. Red area $145. Yellow area endzone $145 or $175 sideline. That's at least my best guess, although it doesn't make that much sense.

Seating Chart

Bowl Season Opening Day Thread - BYU vs UTEP

Bowl Season Opening Day Thread - BYU vs UTEP

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on December 18th, 2010 at 2:10 PM

Finishing up a close game in the D2 bracket. Delta State is down 3 with 2:22 to go. Went for it on 4th and goal from the one. False start pushes it back 5. So they go for the FG. It's blocked. Wait... DELAY OF GAME!  KO return goes to the offensive 45! Challenged! He fielded the ball on one knee, he's down, it's coming back to the defensive 30.

Coming up next BYU vs UTEP at the New Mexico Bowl. JCB has UTEP +12. Neither of these teams are very good, but I like the matchup to be closer than 12 as well. I'll take and the points, but I'll take BYU straight up. 

Bowl Game: Questions for a First-Timer

Bowl Game: Questions for a First-Timer

Submitted by UMGooch on December 6th, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Bought my first bowl tickets today! Its the first bowl game Michigan has gone to where I live in the state in which they are playing. Very excited to make it to my first one, but I have a few questions maybe some of you MGoUsers can answer. By the way, stadium seats are $65 a pop.

1. I signed in with my MGoBlue user account (the one I used to buy student season tickets all 4 years of undergrad). Is there any preferential seating selection for repeat customers or customers with seniority (alumni, perhaps)?

2. Will I be placed in the Michigan group? I purchased Stadium level seats.

3. How many of you are making the trip? I hope there's an awesome showing by Michigan fans. I'd like a home crowd advantage.

Go Blue! Let's beat up on the SEC!

Semi-OT: Cold Weather BCS Bowl Games

Semi-OT: Cold Weather BCS Bowl Games

Submitted by MGoRobo on May 29th, 2010 at 12:46 AM

So having just read the article on m.go.licio.us on cold weather BCS bowl games, I'm glad to see there are still people out there willing to give the cold a shot when talking about bowl games.  I personally love snow football, and watching my team win in the snow is even better.

Patriots fans do this every year (among other teams), and the NFL has set a precedent with their recent decision on a New York Super Bowl for 2014.  I've heard many a student want to kill me when i wish for some snow late in the season, but I'm still hoping to see a full blown snow game before I graduate.

 

What's everyone's opinion on this? Pros/cons on this kind of game? Would it help solve the "is the SEC truly better outside of their warm comfort zone" debate?  I certainly think it would legitimize either how good they really are or how well they have been using that warmth to their advantage.