B1G Football: Week 3 Against the Spread

B1G Football: Week 3 Against the Spread

Submitted by RyanParrill on September 20th, 2013 at 12:37 PM

The B1G went a respectable 7-5 ATS last weekend; while Michigan did not obviously fare as well. Wisconsin is the only team left with a perfect record ATS.

  Close Result Difference Close Result Difference Close Result Difference
Michigan -31.5 59-9 (CMU) +18.5 -5 41-30 (ND) +6 -37 28-24 (Akron) -33
Ohio -34 40-20 (Buff) -14 -28 42-7 (SDSU) +7 -13.5 52-34 (@Cal) +4.5
Michigan St -28 26-13 (WMU) -15 -21.5 21-6 (USF) -6.5 -23 55-17 (Young St) +15
Indiana -25 73-35 (Ind St) +13 -12.5 35-41 (Navy) -18.5 -2.5 42-10 (BGSU) +29.5
Illinois -17 42-34 (So Ill) -9 +8 45-17 (Cinci) +36 +10.5 24-34 (Wash) +0.5
Northwestern -6.5 44-30 (@Cal) +7.5 -17 48-27 (Syr) +4 -28 38-17 (WMU) -7
Penn State -8 23-17 (Syr) -2 -28 45-7 (EMU) +10 -4.5 31-34 (UCF) -7.5
Nebraska -31 37-34 (Wyo) -28 -28 56-13 (S Miss) +15 -1.5 21-41 (UCLA) -21.5
Iowa -3 27-30 (N Ill) -6 -26 28-14 (Misso St) -12 -1 27-21 (@Iowa St) +5
Wisconsin -44 45-0 (UMass) +1 -45 48-0 (Tenn Tech) +3 +7 30-32 (@AZ St) +5
Purdue +10.5 7-42 (Cinci) -24.5 -17 20-14 (Ind St) -11 +17 31-24 (ND) +10
Minnesota -13.5 51-23 (UNLV) +14.5 -16 44-21 (N Mex St) +7 -27.5 29-12 (W Ill) -10.5

This Week

Penn State is the big mover; the line has increased 7 points since the open. Indiana opened as the underdog, but the market has determined that game is a toss-up. We have our first B1G match-up with Purdue @ Wisconsin. Of course with a current spread 23.5 it doesn't really set off fireworks for the start of league play. Can Michigan recover and win by 3 TD's? They may be able to cover that O by themselves.

  Week 4
  Open Current O/U Opponent
Michigan -18.5 -18 51.5 @Uconn
Ohio -51.5 -49.5   FL A&M
Michigan St +6 +5 43 @ND
Indiana +3 PK 71.5 Mizzou
Illinois NG NG NG No Game
Northwestern -28 -28.5   Maine
Penn State -14 -21 54 Kent St
Nebraska -21.5 -20.5   SDak St
Iowa -19 -16 47 WMU
Wisconsin -22.5 -23.5
Purdue +22.5 +23.5 @Wisc
Minnesota -6.5 -3.5 50.5 SJ St

If MCalibur, or anyone else, has the missing O/U I'll update them as they come in.


The History

  2011 2012 2013
Michigan 8-4-1 6-7 2-1
Ohio 6-7 7-5 2-1
Michigan St 10-4 5-8 1-2
Indiana 5-6-1 6-6 2-1
Illinois 6-7 3-9 2-1
Northwestern 5-8 12-1 2-1
Penn State 3-9-1 9-2-1 1-2
Nebraska 4-8-1 6-7-1 1-2
Iowa 5-8 4-8 1-2
Wisconsin 7-6-1 6-8 3-0
Purdue 6-6-1 6-7 1-2
Minnesota 8-5 6-7 2-1


Michigan 13 point dog to Bama

Michigan 13 point dog to Bama

Submitted by StephenRKass on February 15th, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Michigan is currently a 13 point underdog to Alabama in the JerryWorld game. (Link:  http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120215/SPORTS0201/202150407/1131/Michigan-now-13-point-underdog-against-Alabama.)

Personally, even though I'm not much for bets, I'd take Michigan at those odds. Of course, I'm a shameless homer who only roots for Michigan, but I can't see them beating us that soundly.

I also believe that Michigan has an advantage in facing them at the beginning of the season. Denard should have a lot more opportunity to surprise their defense. Even though Alabama has many great incoming freshmen, it always takes a while for newcomers to make solid contributions. We'll see. Of course, it'll be interested to hear RDT's take on the game and the odds.

Over/Under: Michigan at Penn State

Over/Under: Michigan at Penn State

Submitted by jamiemac on October 30th, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Ed-M: Bumped due to info/graphic awesome.

Diarist Note: The Pick-4 contest is up and running at the JCB. We have an assortment of good football and soccer coverage over there to set you up for the weekend. I’ll have weekend picks up later, so you’ll know exactly which teams to fade while I try to gamble my way out last week’s slump.

In a season of transition for both programs, Penn State and Michigan meet in Happy Valley tomorrow night in what could prove to be a signature game for the winner. Neither club has any Big 10 Title aspirations, but critical bowl positioning and perhaps even the inside track to the Gator Bowl, will be on the line when the ball finally kicks off in anger in primetime.

This week’s Big 10 slate is highlighted by the showdown in Iowa City between the Hawkeyes and Spartans, but this contest has implications that loom as large, just in a different venue. What happens to the loser of this game? For Penn State, it means they probably will do no better than a 6-6 record. Or worse. Will the cries for Joe Pa’s head reach the levels of 2003 and 2004 if the Nits revert to their losing ways from the early portion of that decade?

And speaking of cries for heads, how about Rich Rodriguez. There isn't a coach in the country taking more heat for a 5-2 record than Rodriguez, the remaining residue from his 8-16 mark during his first two seasons. A third loss in a row and November might end up being more kind to turkeys than the Wolverines current head coach.

5-2 by year three is just unacceptable, dear.

Everyone here knows all those storylines, so I wont bloviate on and on there. Tomorrow night’s game should be a blast and it will help define what sort of final month either club will have. Here are some of the keys to the game, as I see it through the MGo Over/Under Board. Place your bets accordingly.

First, however, it should be noted that with the conference breaking into two divisions and Michigan and Penn State being seated on different sides, this will be the last PSU/UM in at least a couple of years. Who knows when the Maize and Blue will be back in Happy Valley, so to honor the moment let’s go back in the Way Back Machine, courtesy of Wolverine Historian, and remember the Wolverines' first-ever visit to Beaver Stadium:

Ah, memories. You shall be missed, oh second-largest.

(The picks, after the jump.)

Mich favored by 13.5 over IU in Bloomington

Mich favored by 13.5 over IU in Bloomington

Submitted by PeterKlima on September 26th, 2010 at 9:33 PM
I just notice we have moved up to 13.5 point favorites against Indiana this weekend in Bloomington.


I think we win, but that seems REALLY high considering IU's offensive power.

Let's hope the money is right.

OT - 2011 Stanley Cup Odds

OT - 2011 Stanley Cup Odds

Submitted by MGoShoe on June 10th, 2010 at 8:52 PM

Change of pace on a crazy day.

Bodog just set futures odds for the 2011 Stanley Cup. Blackhawks lead the pack  at 11-2, Red Wings are fifth at 12-1.  The top 10 teams:

1. Chicago Blackhawks 11-2
2. Pittsburgh Penguins 6-1
3. Washington Capitals 13-2
4. San Jose Sharks 9-1
5. Detroit Red Wings 12-1
6t. Vancouver Canucks 15-1
6t. Philadelphia Flyers 15-1
8. Buffalo Sabres 18-1
9t. Boston Bruins 20-1
9t. New Jersey Devils 20-1

After a tough year for the Wings, odds like this say a lot about the respect the organization garners. 

[This information is provided purely for entertainment purposes.]

Reason for hope: an important goal is still in sight

Reason for hope: an important goal is still in sight

Submitted by michelin on November 8th, 2009 at 3:01 PM

This is a message the players should get. My first reaction to UM’s predicament was to give up on the team this year. When you are expected to lose both of the next 2 games by significant margins, it’s easy to get discouraged. But then I wondered, what’s the chance that UM could still get to a bowl game this year and end up with a decent record. Given turnovers, missed extra points, injuries, illnesses, unexplained fluctuations in motivation, etc.—how likely is it that UM could steal one of the games Just think: Purdue beat OSU. Navy beat ND. NW beat Iowa…Washington(?state) beat USC….I could go on. The point is that there’s a lot that can happen that is not predictable with certainty even if one team is a big favorite. So what’s the chance that UM might finally catch a break after an otherwise heartbreaking season?

I first calculated the predicted point spreads based on UM OSU AND WI’s Sagarin Predictor ratings to get an idea about the possible point spreads in our next 2 games, as calculated below (the sagarin ratings are actually used by vegas to help set the betting lines, and the rating method chosen actually predicts the outcome of games).

I took a random game on the net that had posted both a 12-14 pt spread and odds roughly comparable to spreads I calculated for UM vs WI (-11 ) and OSU (-15).

I found that UM has a 31% chance of getting to a bowl game and the second most likely final record is 7-6.

Conclusion: A nearly 1/3 chance of a bowl is not a reason for hopelessness…in fact, it’s a far better chance than was the team's early season goal of winning the B10.

So, now is not a time for the team to get discouraged..but rather to redouble their efforts… One of their important goals is still in sight.