If you’re looking for the weekly Corsi charts, you’ve come to the right place. Incidentally, they aren’t here, so you’re also in the wrong place. It’s not you, it’s me.
I’ve been busy finishing up work on my thesis, an additional research paper, and other assorted family things (hence the gap between posts), but I haven’t been completely ignoring hockey. I try to find as much to read about advanced hockey statistics as possible, and I ran across an article on the Maple Leafs’ SBN blog that caused something of a crisis of conscience.
The last two columns are the r-value for even strength Corsi and the R2 value as it relates to winning percentage. The first column to the right of 5v5CF% is the R^2 value over six years of statistics that the folks at Pension Plan Puppets collected. Their analysis indicated that Corsi is both highly replicable and relatively highly correlated with winning percentage.
Visualizing r^2, via BMG Lab Tech
Having said that, I’ve decided to shelve the Corsi project for now. It may be true that Corsi is related to winning percentage, but B1G hockey is starting and I wrote back in my first Corsi post that I’d start doing goal-by-goal analysis posts again at this point. I decided to stop tracking Corsi data because I only have a limited amount of free time to pour into this each week, and if I’m going to spend 5-8 hours a week analyzing Michigan hockey then I think most people would rather see GBGA than something that may be highly correlated with winning but has very little aesthetic appeal. If you’ve been using my Corsi posts in place of Ambien then I’m glad I had the opportunity to both inform you and put you to sleep. I’ll try and get back to Corsi at some point, but I can’t make any promises.
If you’re now wondering what GBGA is then I think I’d describe it as a Picture Pages/UFR hybrid. I break down every goal for and against, hoping to explain what happened in a sport where important things happen in tenths of seconds and add something entertaining/informative to the world of Michigan hockey.
2:51- OSU 0 Michigan 1: Lynch from Kile & Allen
Michigan gets the puck in deep and Lynch goes to carry it behind the net. The two OSU defensemen should follow the routes drawn out on the screen shot; as one goes to cover Lynch on the wraparound, the other should go to the front of the net.
Instead, the right defenseman follows Lynch behind the net. This vacates the front of the net, which comes into play later. The left D has no choice but to leave Lynch and follow the pass to Kile.
A simple pass from Kile to Lynch puts the puck in a dangerous spot for OSU. Since the right D followed Lynch behind the net there’s no one to protect the net-front area. Lynch is going to get an easy wrap around shot. Look at how deep the OSU goaltender is in his net. He’ got the post locked down, but he’s still standing when Lynch gets the puck on his stick and you can see how open to five hole area is. Lynch puts this one away for Michigan’s first B1G conference goal.
15:46- OSU 1 Michigan 1: PPG Dzingel from McCormick & Szczechura
Michigan’s box is shifted far left. You can see that OSU has three players in the frame, which means that two are off screen and essentially undefended.
Motte makes a mistake and tries to block the shot in the slot. This really could fall to the defender in the front of the net, as Motte’s assignment is to cover the far right (where the arrow’s pointing, naturally).
Pretty obvious that this mistake leads to a really, really wide open shot. The goal itself was soft, as it just sort of rolls over Nagelvoort’s glove but the defensive breakdown is still key to this goal.
6:41- OSU 1 Michigan 2: PPG Compher from Moffatt & Guptill
The key here is that the top of OSU’s box has sagged down into the slot instead of staying high to cover the point. This allows Michigan to pass across the zone from the boards.
Moffatt takes the shot that’s there for him. It’s not a bad shot, but it’s not exactly a high percentage shot. The best case scenario is what happens, which is a big, uncleared rebound in front. The beauty of the power play is that Compher (circled above) is going to be undefended if the low defensemen doesn’t get there in time.
While it doesn’t quite work out the way I noted above, it still works out. The Michigan player essentially sets a pick, leaving Compher to backhand the puck into the really, really open half of the net. Also, OSU’s goalie Logan Davis is like whoa slow laterally.
HIGH FIVE METAL BARS I FEEL YOU
14:26- OSU 2 Michigan 2: PPG McCormick from Szczechura & Fritz
DeBlois takes away the passing lane to the blueline, so OSU works the puck down low.
Bennett tries to take away the pass to the slot but is about a half second too late, and the puck gets tipped through Nagelvoort’s legs.
19:43- OSU 2 Michigan 3: Guptill from Compher
Compher wins the faceoff, which is huge. Even more important, however, is that DeBlois is able to tie his man up. This allows a clean tap across from Compher to Guptill…
...and a very, very clean shot from Guptill. He lifts the puck perfectly, hitting the top corner before Davis knows what (didn’t) hit him.
16:47- OSU 3 Michigan 3: Greco from Fritz
Credit where credit’s due, OSU’s forechecking creates this goal. Michigan makes a bad decision to play the puck back, and there’s no Michigan skater to collect the weak pass. OSU gets there first and gains possession.
No one notices the skater in the slot until it’s too late; Downing was behind the net and doesn’t cover the front fast enough, Motte can’t catch him either, and Nagelvoort (who was locking down the post) can’t stop the wide-open slot.
Michigan’s offense-turned-defense on this play.
3:38- OSU 3 Michigan 4: Copp from Bennett & De Jong
Mac Bennett, man. He sees a huge passing lane and puts a perfect pass….
…on the stick of Andrew Copp.
He gathers, shoots, scores, and then this.