Wallpaper Offseason - The Devin Guarantee

Wallpaper Offseason - The Devin Guarantee

Submitted by jonvalk on July 15th, 2013 at 11:00 PM

Ok, so I'm getting this in really quick so that I can go back to taking care of my week-old MGoBaby, but I wanted to post this before I logged off.  I made this quick wallpaper because I LOVE the confidence that Devin showed when asked point-blank about the OSU game and this team's championship potential.  Hopefully, you all enjoy it.  Once I get around to making a mobile and/or tablet version, I'll make this into a diary with some variations to choose from.  Until then, constructive criticism is always welcome as I am constantly striving to get my fingers on the board's collective pulse when it comes to wallpaper design.  Requests are welcome, as well, but I can't guarantee (unlike Devin) that I'll be up for the challenge at this time.

Go Blue!

EDIT: Added a few textures to give it a little better look.

- JonValk

How do they turn out?

How do they turn out?

Submitted by Ron Utah on January 29th, 2013 at 12:40 PM

An informational post about the Rivals 100 players Michigan has recruited since 2002 got me thinking, and in this relatively quiet period, I decided I wanted to dig a bit deeper.

The question I set out to answer: How do these guys turn out?  At what rate do top recruits become top players in our program?  And how does that compare to other programs?

Given limited time, I compared us to only one other program: Ohio.  I used Rivals 100 data for position, stars, and rank.  The "Impact" data point is my subjective interpretation of a player's career impact; 3 is a high impact player (Solid starter to All-B1G type), 2 is a role player (contributor to starter), and 1 is a low impact player (did not produce for whatever reason).  These ratings are NOT based on talent or careers at other schools--only the player's impact where they signed their LOI.  Players who have not yet had the opportunity to demonstrate a rating are designated "n/a".  Players with an asterix have not yet signed.   And yes, some of you will argue with me, but my overall ratings are close enough to make some good starting points for conversation.  Here is the data, followed by conclusions:

Chad Henne QB 5 13 2004 PA 3
LaMarr Woodley LB 5 14 2003 MI 3
Brandon Graham LB 5 15 2006 MI 3
Donovan Warren DB 5 25 2007 CA 3
Stephen Schilling OL 5 26 2006 WA 3
Gabe Watson DT 5 33 2002 MI 3
Shawn Crable DE 4 39 2003 OH 3
Jonas Mouton DB 4 45 2006 CA 3
Mario Manningham WR 4 45 2005 OH 3
Prescott Burgess DB 5 6 2003 OH 2
Will Campbell DT 5 26 2009 MI 2
Tim Jamison DE 4 40 2004 IL 2
Darryl Stonum WR 4 41 2008 TX 2
Greg Mathews WR 4 93 2006 FL 2
Ryan Mundy DB 4 96 2003 PA 2
Terrance Taylor DT 4 96 2005 MI 2
Ryan Mallett QB 5 4 2007 TX 1
Kevin Grady RB 5 22 2005 MI 1
Justin Turner DB 4 35 2009 OH 1
Marques Slocum OL 4 37 2005 PA 1
Carlos Brown RB 4 39 2006 GA 1
Boubacar Cissoko DB 4 44 2008 MI 1
Antonio Bass ATH 4 49 2005 MI 1
Dann O'Neill OL 4 49 2008 MI 1
Justin Boren OL 4 64 2006 OH 1
Clayton Richard QB 4 71 2003 IN 1
Alex Mitchell OL 4 80 2004 MI 1
Cory Zirbel OL 4 83 2005 KY 1
Jim Presley LB 4 89 2003 MI 1
Adam Patterson DT 4 91 2006 SC 1
Toney Clemons WR 4 91 2007 PA 1
Matt Gutierrez QB 4 96 2002 CA 1
Brett Gallimore OL 4 96 2004 MO 1
James McKinney DT 4 98 2005 KY 1
Doug Dutch WR 4 98 2004 DC 1
Cullen Christian DB 4 99 2010 PA 1
Derrick Green (*) RB 5 8 2013 VA n/a
Ondre Pipkins DT 5 14 2012 MO n/a
Kyle Kalis  OL 5 22 2012 OH n/a
Henry Poggi (*) DT 4 70 2013 MD n/a
Erik Magnuson OL 4 78 2012 CA n/a
Shane Morris (*) QB 4 81 2013 MI n/a
Patrick Kugler OL 4 82 2013 PA n/a
Justice Hayes RB 4 85 2011 MI n/a

Let's start by looking at Michigan's "gets".  There are some definite correlations.  A higher national rank does indeed give a player a higher likelihood of making an impact.  Of the 36 players who received a rating, nine were 3's (high impact), eight were 2's (role players), and 19 were...not so good.  That gives Rivals 100 players during this period a 25% chance of being great, a 22% chance of being okay to good, and about a 53% chance of not being helpful at all.  Basically, it's about 50/50 on whether or not these kids make a positive impact at Michigan.

That said, of the nine players who were 3's, 6 were five-star players.  Two more five-star players made a 2 rating (Burgess & Campbell), and many would argue Burgess was a 3 (erroneously, but they would argue).  That means roughly 80% of your five-star players end-up solidly contributing, and of the two that didn't--Mallet and Grady--only Grady was a complete bust, as Mallet went on to SEC stardom.

Of the 20 players who were 1's, 10 were ranked 80th or lower nationally, and only six were ranked higher than 40th.

I think it's important to consider that this time period includes two tumultuous coaching changes and a year of "lame-duck" coaching from Carr.  I do not believe it will be representative of our success going forward, but it's the data we have.

Terrelle Pryor QB 5 1 2008 OH 3
Theodore Ginn, Jr DB 5 2 2004 OH 3
Chris Wells RB 5 3 2006 OH 3
Mike Adams OL 5 3 2008 OH 3
Michael Brewster OL 5 12 2008 FL 3
Alex Boone OL 5 20 2005 OH 3
DeVier Posey WR 5 21 2008 OH 3
Donte Whitner DB 4 27 2003 OH 3
Marcus Freeman LB 4 31 2004 OH 3
Corey Brown DB 5 31 2009 PA 3
Braxton Miller QB 4 34 2011 OH 3
Maurice Clarett RB 5 37 2002 OH 3
Brandon Saine RB 4 50 2007 OH 3
Andrew Norwell OL 4 59 2010 OH 3
Doug Datish OT 4 68 2002 OH 3
Quinn Pitcock DT 4 72 2002 OH 3
Doug Worthington DE 4 80 2005 NY 3
Robert Rose DE 5 17 2006 OH 2
Etienne Sabino LB 4 46 2008 FL 2
Garrett Goebel DT 4 64 2008 IL 2
J.B. Shugarts OL 4 87 2008 TX 2
Mike D'Andrea LB 5 29 2002 OH 1
Lamaar Thomas ATH 4 33 2008 MD 1
Louis Irizarry TE 4 38 2003 OH 1
Justin Zwick QB 4 40 2002 OH 1
Connor Smith OL 4 55 2006 OH 1
Kyle Mitchum OL 4 56 2004 PA 1
Jaamal Berry RB 4 56 2009 FL 1
Eugene Clifford DB 4 60 2007 OH 1
Kenny Hayes DE 4 68 2011 OH 1
Raymond Small WR 4 88 2006 OH 1
Duron Carter WR 4 90 2009 FL 1
Dorian Bell LB 5 33 2009 PA 1
Jamie Wood DB 4 74 2009 OH 1
Curtis Grant LB 5 2 2011 VA n/a
Noah Spence DE 5 9 2012 PA n/a
Adolphus Washington DE 5 25 2012 OH n/a
Mike Mitchell* LB 5 26 2013 TX n/a
Jalin Marshall* ATH 4 35 2013 OH n/a
Cameron Burrows DB 4 39 2013 OH n/a
Michael Bennett DT 4 41 2011 OH n/a
Joey Bosa* DE 4 47 2013 FL n/a
Marcus Hall OL 4 52 2009 OH n/a
Tommy Schutt DT 4 64 2012 IL n/a
Roderick Smith RB 4 65 2010 IN n/a
Ezekiel Elliott* RB 4 84 2013 MO n/a
Eli Apple DB 4 89 2013 NJ n/a
Evan Lisle* OL 4 90 2013 OH n/a
Se'von Pittman DE 4 95 2012 OH n/a

Ohio's data gives us 35 rateable recruits to our 36.  They show a similar correlation, with higher rankings and five-star players much more likely to be 3's.  Of their 35 rated players, 17 were 3's, 4 were 2's, and 13 were 1's.  That means roughly half (49%) of their rated players were 3's, and about 37% were 1's.  Interestingly, many of their 1's were players who had trouble with the law--an issue that was much less prevalent with Wolverines.

The comparisons are pretty obvious: Ohio has gotten much more production out of their top recruits.  This is, no doubt, partially attributable to mostly consistent coaching through the period by one of the best in the game (even if was a lying cheater).  Ohio also had higher-ranked recruits--their average national ranking is 45.9 to Michigan's 55.2--and were much more geographically concentrated in Ohio and the midwest than Michigan's players.

Another interesting bit of data is that position does not seem to make much of a difference.  LBs are probably the most successful recruits, but it matters very little.  National ranking seems to correlate with impact regardless of position.

Going forward, my expectation is that roughly two-thirds (60-66% would be good) of Rivals 100 recruits end-up as solid contributors or better for Michigan, with about half becoming impact players.  Unfortunately, the lower rankings of this year's four Top 100 recruits (Morris is 81 and Kugler 82) would suggest they have a smaller chance of being successful, while Poggi is most likely to be at least a contributor and Green has a 50/50 chance of being great.  If Green finishes his career as a 3, and we get two 2's out of the other three, it will have been a very good year.  If there are two 3's, it's a great year, and if there are two or three 1's, things didn't go so well.

I do believe our success with top talent will say a lot about or staff and look forward to revisiting this in 2016, when Hoke has had a full five-year cycle to demonstrate how well he can maximize talent.


EDIT: After some honest thought and good criticism, I bumped Will Campbell up to a "2".  It's a "meh" difference statistically, but he probably earned it this year.

OT: New Nike Hyper Elite basketball uniforms

OT: New Nike Hyper Elite basketball uniforms

Submitted by FabFiver5 on January 22nd, 2013 at 4:12 PM

So Nike has officially released their "new" Hyper Elite basketball uniforms for their top schools to wear during special occasion games this season.

Even though Michigan had a uniform exactly like this (and quickly got rid of it due to its sheer ugliness), Nike decided to go ahead and make them again anyway.

Our old version from the Jamal Crawford era:


Ohio State will be wearing theirs against us during the February 5th home game. Theirs look like so:


Other teams to wear them include Texas, Gonzaga (who wore them against Butler), Marquette, Duke, North Carolina, Villanova, Kentucky, USC and Georgetown.

And to think we complained about Adidas so much...

Your least favorite Buckeye

Your least favorite Buckeye

Submitted by Butterfield on November 21st, 2012 at 5:17 PM

If you are on MGoBlog, chances are you don't like many, if any, Buckeyes.  We all have that one guy who, more than the rest, powers the turbines of hatred we have for our OSU rivals. 

I nominate  LB Andy Katzenmoyer. 

As a freshman, Andy Katzenmoyer was the 90's version of James Laurinaitis, during a simpler time when Road Warrior Animal was the only member of the Laurinaitis clan you were familiar with. 

From a hype machine standpoint, he was AJ Hawk without the Brady Quinn's sister sideshow.   He started his first game as a true freshman, a fact that Brent Musberger wouldn't let you forget about over a three year period.   He was God's gift to football, a self absorbed prodigal son who would see his play decline in the years following his tremendous frosh season.  Everyone noticed he wasn't as good as his reputation- everyone except the media who decided to award him the Butkus Award and make him a 1st team All America his Junior season.  He would ride his undeserved reputation to becoming a 1st round pick of the pre-Belichek Patriots, for whom he would play less than 3 years and be universally accepted as an awful bust.

From an academic standpoint, he set the low standard to which Terrelle Pryor would eventually aspire.  It became common knowledge he was only able to stay eligible by taking "Golf" and was the beneficiary of having a very influential booster base who was adamant that academics would not interfere with OSUs on field success. 

After losing in his first two attempts to beat Michigan, his team got it done in his junior (and final) season, winning comfortably at the Horseshoe.  I was there, suffering with my fellow student road trippers just barely a year after we had stormed the field and celebrated with roses in our mouths and pepper spray in our eyes.  The face of 1996-1998 OSU football, Andy Katzenmoyer.  I don't like him.  Who don't you like?


Uniformz a better way?

Uniformz a better way?

Submitted by triguy616 on November 21st, 2012 at 10:05 AM

With the talk about Ohio State's uniformz for The Game, a friend and I came up with a different idea.  USC and UCLA's game this year featured the home uniform of both teams.



I think seeing Michigan wearing Blue and Ohio wearing Scarlet out there would be pretty cool.  Definitely better than doing the uniformz thing.

For confirmation that this is acceptable for all NCAA (pdf warning):

Jersey Color and Design
ARTICLE 5. a. Players of opposing teams shall wear jerseys of contrasting colors. Players on the same team shall wear jerseys of the same color and design.
1.  The visiting team shall wear white jerseys; however, the home team may wear white jerseys if the teams have agreed in writing before the season.
2.  If the home team wears colored jerseys, the visiting team may also wear colored jerseys, if and only if the following conditions have been satisfied:
a.  The home team has agreed in writing prior to the game; and
b.  The conference of the home team certifies that the jersey of the visiting team is of a contrasting color.
3.  If on the kickoff at the start of each half, the visiting team wears a colored jersey in violation of the conditions specified in paragraph 2 (above), it is a foul for unsportsmanlike conduct.


So the home team that year and the conference would have to okay it.

So what does the MGo crowd think?  Would this be a cool thing to do or would this be just as bad (or worse) than uniformz?

Michigan gets Trolled by the Ohio Marching Band

Michigan gets Trolled by the Ohio Marching Band

Submitted by thisisme08 on October 23rd, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Slow day on the board and I saw this while browsing various blogs and thought it was worth a share, as IIRC we did something similar with the Wizard of Oz a few years back.

The premise is that the Michigan Martians (so thats where I put my giant maize and blue flag at) kidnap a Ohio cheerleader and then the band sets about on a journey to get her back....more than likely she's a blonde and Keith Stone says we only think about the brunette girls so nice try Ohio. 



(if someone could embed, thanks in advance)


OT: Urban Wants to Limit Miller's Carries

OT: Urban Wants to Limit Miller's Carries

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on September 11th, 2012 at 8:06 AM

Looks like Urbs is in a similar position to the one we were in last weekend*, and were in for nearly the whole season two years ago.  You've got an electric, multidimensional quarterback who can make plays with his arm or his feet, but really hurts you worse with his feet. You don't really have much of a second option. So you run him over and over again. This hurts said electric, multidimensional quarterback, and makes it less likely he'll play through the entire season. You wring your hands, but you still don't really have a second option to run the ball effectively. Article here

Disclaimer: I don't want anyone, even someone who plays for Ohio, to get hurt. Rather, I bring this up because of the familiarity of the situation to things we've dealt with, and continue to deal with. I'm also curious what Ohio could potentially do to keep Miller healthy and still win football games. Looking forward to our matchup, what can and should we do to capitalize on this situation--as many quality defenses capitalized on our one-dimensionality in 2010?

*I'm going to stay positive, and hope this is more Fitz being rusty than our O-line being mediocre.