Team Performance versus Scout Recruit Class Rank

Team Performance versus Scout Recruit Class Rank

Submitted by WolverineLake on January 30th, 2012 at 3:43 PM

As I was reading through fellow fans' reactions to recent recruitment news, someone had mentioned that 'recruiting doesn't really matter.'  I'd read that several places, and in the back of my mind I probably didn't believe it.  So, I decided to see if the quality of the class as measured through the eyes of a scouting site really did matter.

Turns out, it may not really matter.  (Note:  This isn't an end all be all of an analysis, and I'm not an expert on Statistics, Recruiting or Women.  I also only looked at the top 12 as this takes a lot of time, plus it afforded me another opportunity to disrespect Ohio.)

What?!  How dare thee suggest class rank doesn't matter!   I'd kindly refer you to the table.

What is this table that thee speaketh of?  Uh, chart?

2011 AP Team Average Class Difference 2011 Rank - 2007/8 Class 2012 Class 2011 Class 2010 Class 2009 Class 2008 Class 2007 Class
1 Alabama 8.4 7.4 10.5 2 7 10 2 1 22
2 LSU 10.0 8.0 12.5 7 9 9 3 7 22
3 Oklahoma State 29.0 26.0 29.0 27 18 18 45 40 24
4 Oregon 16.4 12.4 12.0 13 11 13 26 23 9
5 Arkansas 26.0 21.0 24.0 16 17 35 20 24 34
6 USC 5.8 -0.2 -0.5 32 4 5 9 9 2
7 Stanford 29.6 22.6 36.0 18 23 24 15 43 43
8 Boise State 68.6 60.6 52.5 53 65 97 60 64 57
9 South Carolina 20.0 11.0 11.5 9 12 34 13 34 7
10 Wisconsin 34.4 24.4 15.0 52 38 33 51 26 24
11 Michigan State 40.6 29.6 42.5 37 27 32 37 56 51
12 Michigan 14.2 2.2 -4.0 4 29 12 14 6 10
16 Oklahoma 14.4 -1.6 4.0 14 15 15 2 10 30
19 Georgia 10.4 -8.6 -8.0 20 5 21 4 5 17
23 Florida State 13.8 -9.2 -2.5 15 1 9 18 8 33
NR Notre Dame 12.6 - - 10 8 19 23 2 11
NR Texas 6.4 - - 1 3 3 7 16 3
NR Texas A&M 21.6 - - 11 30 25 12 15 26
NR Florida 12.2 - - 5 26 1 21 12 1

Alabama and LSU have consistently strong classes, and the oversigning debacle probably helps them out some more.  They along with USC seem to perform commensurate with expectations.

Some of the interesting items are the massive difference between expectations and results for a few select schools:  Boise St, Michigan St, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma St and Notre Dame.  You can see for yourselves, but Boise St rocks it with classes that are rarely in the top 50%.  Their average class is sitting at 70.  Texas and Notre Dame have the opposite problem.

You clearly need to have quality players.  However, strong coaching, an eye for talent and knowing how to use and motivate that talent go far.  Also, it may suggest that these recruiting services "one size fits all" approach to ranking players and classes is largely irrelevant to a team's performance.  There's a long list of 5* failures and world beating 3* guys.

I didn't do a regression analysis as I'm a) lazy, b) not The Mathlete and c) things seem fairly obvious after perusing the data.  Also, any laser focus on a single aspect of a team's record will probably miss the forest for the trees, but I'm just trying to provide some evidence on this point specifically.

Let's talk data sources and definitions.  I used the final AP Ranking for this past season.  The class ranking data is from Scout.  I imagine it would be easy enough to bump this against some of the other scouting services to see what they say, as well as perhaps the Coach's Poll and whatnot, but I my imaginary army of minions was busy doing something else.  So, this is what we're left with.

The "Average Class" is the class average from 2007 through 2011.  I felt that the 2012 rankings, while somewhat finalized, aren't really part of this equation, yet.  More just a "that's kinda interesting" rather than a "I think there's something there."

The "Difference" is the difference between that aforementioned "Average Class" and the final 2011 AP Ranking.

The "2011 Rank - 2007/8 Class" is the 2011 AP Ranking minus the average of the 2007 and 2008 Recruit Class.

 

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So, what do you think?  

Michigan #17 in AP Poll; #16 in Coaches Poll, #15 in BCS Standings

Michigan #17 in AP Poll; #16 in Coaches Poll, #15 in BCS Standings

Submitted by michiganfan39 on November 20th, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Michigan is #17 and #16 in the AP and coaches poll respectively. Anyone else worried(If we win) that we might not get to #14 after OSU to qualify for a BCS Bowl?  Give me your thoughts

 

EDIT:  Good points.  Beat Ohio

 

Link: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings

 

And in the newly released BCS Standings, we are at 15

 

Link:http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

Pick Six returns! Now on Mgoblog

Pick Six returns! Now on Mgoblog

Submitted by Jeff on August 23rd, 2011 at 11:33 PM

Although we may despise Notre Dame there have been some valuable contributions by Notre Dame football blogs.  One of the best was the Pick Six contest that the now defunct Notre Dame blog Blue-Gray Sky used to operate.  Before the season you pick 5 ranked teams and one unranked team that you think will end the season with the highest rankings after the bowls are done.

I enjoyed entering the contest when Blue-Gray Sky was still around so with Brian's approval we're bringing Pick Six to MGoBlog.

 

Here's how it works.
 
1. We divide the top 25 into 5 groups of 5 based on the preseason AP Poll: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, etc. For this year's poll, the groups are:
  • A: Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon, LSU, Boise State
  • B: Florida State, Stanford, Texas  A&M, Oklahoma State, Nebraska
  • C: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, TCU, Arkansas
  • D: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgia, Mississippi State
  • E: Missouri, Florida, Auburn, West Virginia, Southern Cal
 
2. Before the season starts you pick one team from each group, plus one unranked team. You're trying to pick the teams you think will finish highest in the final AP poll (after the bowl games).
 
3. Each week we'll try to update and publish the standings in a spreadsheet so you can track the progress of your teams. You get 25 points for having the #1 team, 24 points for the #2 team, on down to 1 point for the #25 team. Unranked teams get zero points.
 
4. The winner is the person with the most points (i.e. the highest ranked teams) after the bowl season.
 
5. And the grand prize?  I will personally give the winner 10 meaningless upvotes.  Plus some guy named Brian will give you 3 MGoShirts from the MGoStore.  Places 2-5 all get a free shirt as well.
 
Throughout the season I will give semi-regular updates on the progress of the contest in the Diaries.
 
That's it for the Pick Six: short, sweet and simple. Polling closes on Wednesday August 31 at 12 pm (ET), so get your picks in now. Good luck!
 
 
I tried to embed the GoogleDocs form here, but it didn't work for me (and yes, I switched to plain text editor.  Does mgoblog accept <iframe> tags?).  Any help would be appreciated.  
 
For now, you have to visit the following link to enter.
 

Week 6 AP Poll Released - MSU #17, UM #18

Week 6 AP Poll Released - MSU #17, UM #18

Submitted by jrt336 on October 3rd, 2010 at 12:50 PM

The Associated Press Top 25 Poll
Updated: Sunday October 03, 2010 12:21 PM
Rank Team Record Votes Previous
1 Alabama (58) 5-0 1,497 1
2 Ohio State (1) 5-0 1,401 2
3 Oregon 5-0 1,379 4
4 Boise State (1) 4-0 1,341 3
5 TCU 5-0 1,250 5
6 Oklahoma 5-0 1,183 8
7 Nebraska 4-0 1,172 6
8 Auburn 5-0 1,045 10
9 Arizona 4-0 898 14
10 Utah 4-0 860 13
11 Arkansas 3-1 825 15
12 LSU 5-0 819 12
13 Miami (FL) 3-1 769 16
14 Florida 4-1 681 7
15 Iowa 4-1 670 17
16 Stanford 4-1 663 9
17 Michigan State 5-0 607 24
18 Michigan 5-0 555 19
19 South Carolina 3-1 450 20
20 Wisconsin 4-1 316 11
21 Nevada 5-0 286 25
22 Oklahoma State 4-0 173 NR
23 Florida State 4-1 162 NR
24 Missouri 4-0 99 NR
25 Air Force 4-1 94 NR
Others Receiving Votes: West Virginia83, Kansas State69, USC52, Texas33, Northwestern25, Oregon State12, Baylor10, Virginia Tech8, UCLA8, North Carolina State4, Penn State1

MGoBlog Member Top 25

MGoBlog Member Top 25

Submitted by swarwick33 on September 30th, 2009 at 7:21 PM
After being curious about what actual college football viewers, as opposed to sports writers, though the Top 25 would be I had an idea to tap into one of the most knowledgeable fan bases in the country, ours.  Thus I present the first Members MGoBlog Poll.  First of all I want this to be known....THIS IS OPEN TO EVERYONE ON THE SITE!!!  Do not feel as if you need to have a certain amount of points to do it.  I only ask for a few things.

Oh real quick...Give a big positive point bang to Bleedin9Blue.  He was AWESOME with the sheet.  This would not be possible without him.  So mad love to you sir!!!

Thank you as well to all of those who voted...great first week, way to help me get this off the ground.  I am going to lock you in to the poll so you have a spot every week.


1) Do not vote until Sunday.  Right now we can only accommodate so many people on the ballot (I believe that it is around 140), so please do not waste a vote by voting before all the games have been played.

2) Leave the bias out of it.  I actually believe Michigan could be put in the Top 15, but not #1 Overall. 

3) I promise not to change your votes, unless you are ranking teams in a way that is just crazy.  It is hard to monitor over 100 people, so help me out with this.

4) You do not have to put your name on there, but it would be cool if you did so that I know who has been voting.  I appreciate those that do and would like to give people a shout out if they have been doing really well.

5) Do not kill each other if you do not agree with the rankings.  There will hopefully be enough people to balance out the few really high/ really low ranked teams.

6) Have fun with this.  I think that our poll is a more true example of what is going on in the world of college football, because we can leave the pre-season stuff out of it.  Vote based on WHO HAS THE BEST RESUME SO FAR.  Do not try to predict the future.

OK...For our first poll we had almost 20 voters.  A team ranked 1st got 25 points, a team ranked 25th got 1 point.  We are working on a way to auto-compare it with the AP and Coaches' Poll, but for the first week I will just write some notes to do the analysis.  So without further ado...the first annual MGoBlog Members Blog Poll


Member's Poll
Coaches Rank AP Rank

Team Points

1 Alabama 391 3 3
2 Florida 383 2 2
3 Texas 376 1 1
4 Virginia Tech. 335 6 6
5 Boise State 322 5 5
6 Cincinnati 299 11 10
7 LSU 294 4 4
8 Iowa 264 17 13
9 Oklahoma 257 8 8
10 USC 253 7 7
11 Houston 252 15 12
12 Ohio State 231 9 9
13 TCU 223 10 11
14 Oklahoma State 167 12 14
15 Miami 163 21 17
16 Penn State 161 13 15
17 Oregon 153 25 16
18 Georgia 121 14 19
19 Michigan 105 20 22
20 Kansas 93 16 18
21 Brigham Young 72 21 20
22 California 52 19 24
23 Nebraska 48 24 23
24 Georgia Tech. 42 NR 25
25 Missouri 35 23 NR

Some observations.  This week we seem to have most of the same teams as the experts, but it a different order.  I think that this will eventually change, and will lead to some better analysis.

LOVE 'EM (Teams we have ranked substantially higher)
Alabama
Cincinnati
Iowa
Miami (FL)

HATE "EM (Teams we have ranked substantially lower)
LSU
USC
Ohio State
Penn State

ON THE BRINK
(Teams 26-30)
Auburn
UCLA
South Florida
South Carolina
Wisconsin

HEAD SCRATCHIER (Team where people had no idea where to rank them)
Oklahoma- The Sooners were ranked as high as 5 and were left off of one ballot entirely.
Others- Kansas, TCU and Miami

LINK

Here is your link to participate.  You can go there now to check out the ballot.  PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE THE FORMULAS  IN THE TAB MARKED CHARTS, ONLY ENTER THINGS INTO THE VOTE SHEET.  If you are sure that you are going to vote, you can fill your name in for the information...again just please do not vote until Sunday and do not put in your information if you are not sure if you are going to vote at all.  Copy and paste the link below into your browser, and we will have this up and posted on Tuesday of next week.  Thanks again to those of you who voted this week.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmMe19eG6tLTdHVQOXdWYzlyVHJENTJ…