Re-Ranking Rivals: Are U-M players beating their rankings?

Re-Ranking Rivals: Are U-M players beating their rankings?

Submitted by Ron Utah on August 19th, 2013 at 3:11 PM

Rivals is my favorite recruiting system.  Not my favorite site, and not my favorite rankings (ESPN is winning that title this year), but my favorite system.  In addition to stars, they have a relatively simple system for ranking recruits:

The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9.

6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect

6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team

5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team

5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player

4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about

A 6.1 player is basically top 35; 6.0 = 35-85; 5.9 = 85-160; 5.8 = 160-300.

To put it in NFL terms, a 6.1 is a 1st or early 2nd-round NFL draft pick. A 6.0 is a 2nd-3rd rounder.  A 5.9 is a middle-round pick. A 5.8 is a late round or undrafted FA type. A 5.7 is a player with fringe NFL potential, a 5.6 is an NFL longshot, a 5.5 isn't going to make it. 5.4 and below are guys that are unlikely to see snaps at U-M.

Keep in mind that the standard at Michigan is high.  Jeff Backus keeps a picture of a Michigan huddle on his wall.  Why?  Because everyone in that huddle would go on to play in the NFL.  While that's not typical, the majority of our starters on both sides of the ball should at least find themselves on NFL rosters for a season or two.

That said, I have taken the Rivals Rankings and re-ranked our players according to my current expectations.  This is based on the evidence I have, which is obviously flimsy for the guys that haven't played yet.  It's a combination of what I've seen on the field, practice buzz, and my gut.  Using Derrick Green as an example, I don't think we've seen or heard anything at this point that would suggest he is a 1st-round NFL pick (PLEASE remember that I haven't seen him play an actual down of college football yet).  The flipside is that Dymonte Thomas is already showing signs of an impact player, justifying his 5.9 ranking, while Gardner appears on his way to being a solid early-round NFL draft choice. 

I have ONLY ranked the players I believe are likely to contribute this season.

Player Position Rivals Re-Rank
Derrick Green RB 6.1 5.8
Kyle Kalis OG 6.1 6.0
Ondre Pipkins DT 6.1 5.8
Devin Gardner QB 5.9 6.0
Dymonte Thomas CB/S 5.9 5.9
Jeremy Gallon WR 5.9 5.9
Justice Hayes RB 5.9 5.7
Amara Darboh WR 5.8 5.8
Blake Countess CB 5.8 5.8
Brennen Beyer OLB 5.8 5.7
Cam Gordon OLB 5.8 5.8
Chris Bryant OG 5.8 5.7
Dennis Norfleet WR/KR 5.8 5.8
Fitz Toussaint RB 5.8 5.8
James Ross III WLB 5.8 5.9
Jarrod Wilson S 5.8 5.8
Joe Bolden MLB 5.8 5.8
Mike Schofield OT 5.8 5.9
Raymon Taylor CB 5.8 5.8
Richard Ash DT 5.8 5.6
Royce Jenkins-Stone WLB 5.8 5.8
Taco Charlton DE 5.8 5.8
Taylor Lewan OT 5.8 6.1
Tom Strobel DE/DT 5.8 5.7
A.J. Williams TE 5.7 5.7
Ben Braden OG/OT 5.7 5.8
Chris Wormley DE 5.7 5.7
Delonte Hollowell CB 5.7 5.7
Devin Funchess TE 5.7 5.8
Jibreel Black DT 5.7 5.7
Mario Ojemudia DE 5.7 5.7
Matt Godin DE 5.7 5.7
Drew Dileo WR 5.6 5.7
Frank Clark DE 5.6 5.8
Jake Ryan OLB 5.6 5.9
Jehu Chesson WR 5.6 5.7
Quinton Washington DT 5.6 5.8
Willie Henry DT 5.6 5.7
Courtney Avery CB/S 5.5 5.7
Desmond Morgan MLB 5.5 5.8
Jack Miller C 5.5 5.5
Keith Heitzman DE 5.5 5.7
Thomas Gordon S 5.5 5.8
Brendan Gibbons K 5.4 5.8
Joe Kerridge FB 5.4 5.6
Matt Wile K/P 5.3 5.7
Graham Glasgow OG/C 4.9 5.5
  avg 5.71 5.77

No, I'm not going to explain the rankings one-by-one.  What I will say is that I believe our average needs to be closer to 5.83 before we are considered "elite."

Also note that the rankings should be slightly inflated.  Why?  Because these are the guys that are projected to contribute to our team this season.  They have gone from recruits to players, and have either demonstrated performance on the field or generated significant buzz.

You'll also notice that higher-ranked players are likely to see rankings revised downward.  This is part common sense, part timing: a top-ranked player has nowhere to go but down and most of our higher-ranked players are young and not yet fully-developed.

Finally, you'll notice a few grades below 5.7 in the re-rank.  If we are to be an elite team, we should not have any (other than kickers) players below 5.7 pushing for playing time.

Here are the rankings, with my projected starters only:

Player Position Rivals Re-Rank
Kyle Kalis OG 6.1 6.0
Jeremy Gallon WR/PR 5.9 5.9
Devin Gardner QB 5.9 6.0
Dymonte Thomas CB/S 5.9 5.9
Dennis Norfleet WR/KR 5.8 5.8
Amara Darboh WR 5.8 5.8
Jarrod Wilson S 5.8 5.8
Fitz Toussaint RB 5.8 5.8
Mike Schofield OT 5.8 5.9
Taylor Lewan OT 5.8 6.1
Chris Bryant OG 5.8 5.7
James Ross III LB 5.8 5.9
Cam Gordon LB 5.8 5.8
Blake Countess CB 5.8 5.8
Raymon Taylor CB 5.8 5.8
Devin Funchess TE 5.7 5.8
Jibreel Black DT 5.7 5.7
Drew Dileo WR 5.6 5.7
Jake Ryan LB 5.6 5.9
Quinton Washington DT 5.6 5.8
Frank Clark DE 5.6 5.8
Thomas Gordon S 5.5 5.8
Desmond Morgan LB 5.5 5.8
Keith Heitzman DE 5.5 5.7
Jack Miller C 5.5 5.5
Joe Kerridge FB 5.4 5.6
  avg 5.72 5.81

This includes a slot WR, nickel CB, KR, and extra LB (JMFR).  If we're looking to be a dominant team, I think we need an average closer to 5.88.

I will revisit these rankings after the season, and perhaps once in the middle.

B1G's Best Asst. Coach Recruiters (Rivals)

B1G's Best Asst. Coach Recruiters (Rivals)

Submitted by Caesar on February 28th, 2013 at 10:07 PM

Here's an interesting Rivals article (link). Highlights!

  • Obviously: OSU and Michigan have the best recruiters. You probably know all about Michigan's body of work, but OSU was admittedly impressive in Texas and Georgia. They secured the #1 Texan and took a 4 star running back wanted by Texas/Oregon. They also beat out 'Bama and Georgia for a 5 star Georgian linebacker. 
  • Also expected: Fred Jackson's recruiting prowess in Detroit is like Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin, but cleaner  (This is almost not an exaggeration.)
  • Greg Mattison's work all over the country gets mentioned. He's credited for securing Poggi from the Crimson Temptress, but you probably knew that already. 
  • I think Indiana's continued recruiting successes are the most noteworthy. They pulled a couple 4 star prospects from the Hoosier State--but also a 4 star out of Georgia.  Indy raiding the SEC is pretty wild.
  • Jerry Montgomery didn't make the list. These things probably vary by year, and I don't think it's a strong indication of anything in particular, but it's a relevant omission for Michigan fans.
  • Frosting should come in two varieties: Chuck E. Cheese-style and the kind made with cream cheese. Also, all pie crusts should be made of graham crackers. 

Building a Juggernaut: Part I - How Saban did it

Building a Juggernaut: Part I - How Saban did it

Submitted by Ron Utah on February 19th, 2013 at 10:56 AM

 

We have moved into recruiting season--a time when Michigan fans can tell their wives, girlfriends, and whomever else that there will be less to read about with football season over. Of course, the way Hoke and Co. recruit, this is perhaps the most exciting time to be checking MgoBlog, as “Hello” posts are more common during this stretch than any other. So instead of watching and re-watching every snap from games, we'll be ogling recruits and commits on youtube, critiquing the professionals' evaluations of high school football players, and arguing over the deeper meaning of a seventeen-year-old's tweets.

 

And on that note, I thought it would be interesting to see just how Michigan is doing in building a perennial B1G—and perhaps national—Championship contender. As the saying goes, “It's not the X's and O's but the Jimmies and Joes.” This is, of course, a reference to the fact that talent trumps scheme. And while I certainly believe a better-coached and prepared team can defeat a more talented sloppy team, the field is always tilted to the side with the better athletes.

 

I have broken this into two parts—both are VERY long. The first (this one) is a look at how the game's unquestionable hegemon built a behemoth program from the ashes of Alabama football. Do NOT mistake this for an endorsement of Saban's methods—as this diary will point out, they are somewhat deplorable. It is, however, a valid reference point for the construction of what we all hope will be our own Juggernaut, and these comparisons will be explored in Part II.

So, on to satan's Saban's story...

 

Alabama's championships have come in 2009, 2011, and 2012. There is no doubt that Saban's first three classes formed the core of his 2011 and 2012 championship squads, but they were also HUGE contributors to his 2009 crystal football. This gives us some hope for our own 2013 campaign, but, more importantly offers context for expectations in 2015, when the Hoke recruits will form the entire team.

 

Chart? Chart!

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg IMPACT
Kareem Jackson DB 5'10" 185 4.5 4 stars 5.8 3
Marquis Maze ATH 5'9" 160 4.4 3 stars 5.6 3
Rolando McClain LB 6'4" 240 4.6 4 stars 6.0 3
William Vlachos OL 6'2" 287 5.1 3 stars 5.6 3
Josh Chapman DT 6'1" 280 4.9 3 stars 5.7 2
Luther Davis DT 6'4" 254 4.8 4 stars 5.8 2
Nick Gentry DT 6'1" 265 4.8 3 stars 5.7 2
Darius Hanks WR 6'0" 168 4.6 3 stars 5.5 2
Alfred McCullough DT 6'3" 297 4.9 4 stars 5.8 2
Patrick Crump OL 6'3" 285 5 3 stars 5.7 1
Jeremy Elder DE 6'3" 270 4.9 2 stars 5.4 1
Nick Fanuzzi QB 6'3" 200 4.6 3 stars 5.6 1
Tarence Farmer DB 6'1" 190 4.4 3 stars 5.5 1
Brandon Gibson WR 6'2" 190 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Demetrius Goode RB 5'11" 200 4.5 4 stars 5.8 1
Jeramie Griffin RB 6'0" 230 4.5 3 stars 5.7 1
Jennings Hester LB 6'3" 228 4.7 2 stars 5.4 1
Chris Lett DB 6'2" 195 4.5 4 stars 5.8 1
Kerry Murphy DT 6'5" 315 5.1 4 stars 6.0 1
Michael Ricks DB 6'2" 195 4.4 4 stars 6.0 1
Jamar Taylor RB 5'9" 204 4.7 3 stars 5.7 1
Chris Underwood TE 6'4" 202   2 stars 5.3 1
Alex Watkins DE 6'5" 225 4.7 4 stars 5.9 1
Chavis Williams DE 6'5" 220 4.6 3 stars 5.5 1
          avg 5.70 1.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saban's first class (2007) is his worst, and it's not even close. This is to be expected, since he was hired January 3, 2007. The majority of that class was already in place, and not even Saban's snake oil could yield a single five-star player. The average Rivals rating of that class was 5.70, which is the equivalent of a high three-star recruit.* Compare that with his ridiculous 2013 haul (probably his best class) that has an average rating of 5.87, which is basically a top-150 recruit. Think Joe Mathis. That's their average recruit.

*Rivals ratings were used. For Rivals, a 6.1 is a five-star; 5.8-6.0 is a four-star; 5.5-5.7 is a three-star; 5.0-5.4 is a two-star. Click here for more information.

But alas, 2007 was the recruiting class of a mere mortal, with 24 commits (low for Saban). Ten of those commitments would not finish their career at 'Bama, and five more would flame-out as non-contributors. But even this relatively paltry group produced a few stars: Kareem Jackson, Marquis Maze, Rolando McClain, and William Vlachos all went on to great things with the Tide and now get (legally) paid to play. In fact, four more players from that class have signed with NFL teams, though none of them were stars at 'Bama.

This brings me to the “IMPACT” column on the charts. IMPACT is my very imperfect measurement of a player's on-field contributions to his team. Briefly, a “3” is a solid starter to All-American type; a “2” is a contributor to spot starter; a “1” is bust for whatever reason. As has been pointed out to me, a four-tiered system would be better, giving two “middle” grades and one “all-star” grade. The trouble with that system is that it requires intimate (hmmm...maybe I could have picked a better adjective there) knowledge of a player's performance in order to make an accurate judgment, especially for lineman. For example, Ryan Van Bergen appears to be just a solid starter when you look at his stats, but we know that he was much more important to our team. And it's even harder with the O-line, where there are no real stats. This system results in a low number of “2” players, because the guys that were good enough to be minor contributors and spot starters as sophomores and juniors usually go on to be solid starters by their senior year, the IMPACT rating basically measures their performance in their best year. This is fine for our purposes, as what we are really trying to determine is how many recruits are contributing in a meaningful way to a championship team.

Back to 'Bama. While the '07 class was definitely Saban's weakest, seeing a large percentage of players not finish their careers with the Tide is commonplace. One thing is undeniably clear when you look at the data: a scholarship offer from Nick Saban is actually just an offer to tryout for the Alabama football team. This part of the SEC's infamous “over-signing” practice. Every year, guys that aren't getting it done to Saban's liking are sent packing and their scholarship is offered to a high school kid. If you aren't performing, your spot and your scholarship are going to be handed to someone else.  I really want Michigan to be great, but if we ever pull this kind of crap I will be livid.

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg IMPACT
Julio Jones WR 6'4" 215 4.5 5 stars 6.1 3
Barrett Jones OL 6'5" 271 4.9 4 stars 6.0 3
Mark Barron ATH 6'2" 202 4.5 4 stars 6.0 3
Courtney Upshaw LB 6'2" 220 4.7 4 stars 5.9 3
Don'ta Hightower LB 6'3" 248 4.7 4 stars 5.8 3
Mark Ingram ATH 5'10" 195 4.4 4 stars 5.8 3
Robert Lester DB 6'2" 205 4.6 4 stars 5.8 3
Marcel Dareus DT 6'4" 277   3 stars 5.7 3
Terrence Cody DT 6'5" 395 5.5 3 stars 5.6 3
Brad Smelley QB 6'3" 220 4.7 3 stars 5.5 3
Jerrell Harris LB 6'3" 220 4.5 4 stars 6.0 2
Michael Williams DE 6'6" 240 4.7 4 stars 5.9 2
John Michael Boswell OL 6'6" 290 5.2 4 stars 5.8 2
Damion Square DT 6'3" 270 4.8 3 stars 5.7 2
Corey Smith K 6'1" 208 4.7 2 stars 5.4 2
Burton Scott ATH 5'11" 194 4.4 5 stars 6.1 1
Tyler Love OL 6'7" 285 5.1 5 stars 6.1 1
Alonzo Lawrence DB 6'1" 187 4.4 4 stars 6.0 1
Kerry Murphy DT 6'5" 325 5.3 4 stars 6.0 1
Melvin Ray WR 6'2" 185 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Star Jackson QB 6'3" 182 4.6 4 stars 5.9 1
Brandon Lewis DE 6'3" 260 4.7 4 stars 5.8 1
Chris Jordan ATH 6'2" 201 4.4 4 stars 5.8 1
Destin Hood WR 6'3" 190 4.5 4 stars 5.8 1
Devonta Bolton ATH 6'4" 220 4.5 4 stars 5.8 1
Glenn Harbin DE 6'6" 250 4.8 4 stars 5.8 1
Robby Green DB 6'0" 175 4.5 4 stars 5.8 1
Ivan Matchett RB 5'10" 206 4.5 3 stars 5.7 1
Jermaine Preyear RB 5'11" 205 4.5 3 stars 5.7 1
Undra Billingsley DE 6'4" 260 4.7 3 stars 5.7 1
Chris Jackson WR 6'0" 187 4.5 3 stars 5.6 1
Wesley Neighbors DB 6'1" 190 4.5 2 stars 5.4 1
          avg 5.81 1.78

 

2008 was Saban's first full cycle. Alabama's '07 was campaign was less than impressive: the Tide finished 7-6 including an upset loss to Louisiana-Monroe. An Independence Bowl win over Colorado was the only thing keeping them from a .500 season. Somehow, Saban parlayed that into a stellar recruiting class with 32 (!) recruits. The crown jewel of that class was 5-star Julio Jones, who absolutely lived-up to his billing and has gone on to NFL stardom. The two other 5-star players in that class—Burton (BJ) Scott and Tyler Love—would both fail to produce at 'Bama. Scott was a bust, and Love was injured. But here's a list of the guys from that class that ended-up with an IMPACT rating of “3”:

  • Julio Jones
  • Barrett Jones
  • Mark Barron
  • Courtney Upshaw
  • Don'ta Hightower
  • Mark Ingram
  • Robert Lester
  • Marcel Dareus
  • Terrence Cody
  • Brad Smelley

Brad Smelley was a high school QB who was converted to a bad ass TE. Only two other players from that group—Dareus and Cody—were three-star players. It's interesting to note that this class was a HUGE part of the 2009 championship team, with Julio Jones, Barrett Jones, Mark Barron, Mark Ingram, Marcel Dareus, and Terrence Cody all getting starts and being major contributors to Saban's first crystal football at 'Bama. From the '07 class, only Vlachos, McClain, and Jackson would make comparable contributions to the championship run.

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg IMPACT
D.J. Fluker OL 6'7" 350 4.9 5 stars 6.1 3
Nico Johnson LB 6'3" 226 4.6 5 stars 6.1 3
Dre Kirkpatrick DB 6'2" 180 4.5 5 stars 6.1 3
Trent Richardson RB 5'11" 210 4.5 5 stars 6.1 3
Eddie Lacy RB 5'11" 210 4.4 4 stars 5.9 3
AJ McCarron QB 6'4" 189 4.8 4 stars 5.9 3
James Carpenter OL 6'5" 305   4 stars 5.8 3
Ed Stinson DE 6'4" 227 4.6 4 stars 5.8 3
Anthony Steen OL 6'4" 297 4.9 3 stars 5.7 3
Chance Warmack OL 6'3" 329 5.5 3 stars 5.7 3
Kevin Norwood WR 6'3" 180 4.5 4 stars 5.9 2
Kenny Bell WR 6'1" 160   4 stars 5.8 2
Quinton Dial DT 6'5" 308 5.1 4 stars 5.8 2
Tana Patrick LB 6'3" 215 4.5 4 stars 6.0 1
Michael Bowman WR 6'4" 206 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Kendall Kelly WR 6'4" 210 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Darrington Sentimore DT 6'3" 265 4.6 4 stars 5.9 1
Rod Woodson DB 5'11" 200 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
William Ming DE 6'4" 265 4.8 4 stars 5.8 1
Brandon Moore OL 6'5" 313 5.2 4 stars 5.8 1
Kellen Williams OL 6'3" 295 5.2 3 stars 5.7 1
Jonathan Atchison LB 6'3" 216 4.5 3 stars 5.7 1
Chris Bonds DT 6'4" 262 4.7 3 stars 5.7 1
Anthony Orr DE 6'4" 260 4.8 3 stars 5.7 1
Petey Smith LB 6'0" 230 4.6 3 stars 5.7 1
Darius McKeller OL 6'6" 280 5.1 3 stars 5.6 1
Mike Marrow RB 6'2" 240 4.7 3 stars 5.5 1
          avg 5.83 1.85

 

The 2009 class saw another increase in its average Rivals Rating, this time bumping-up to 5.83. Even more impressive, the four five-star recruits—DJ Fluker, Nico Johnson, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Trent Richardson—all went on to become high-impact players for the Tide. That said, none of the 2009 class would earn starting roles on the 2009 championship team; Richardson was the most significant contributor but was playing back-up to Heisman-winner Mark Ingram. It would take more time for this group to become stars, but this smaller class (27 commitments) still produced 10 players (same number as the 2008 class) who earned a “3” IMPACT rating:

  • DJ Fluker
  • Nico Johnson
  • Dre Kirkpatrick
  • Trent Richardson
  • Eddie Lacy
  • AJ McCarron
  • James Carpenter
  • Ed Stinson
  • Anthony Steen
  • Chance Warmack

Only two of that group were 3-star players: O-linemen Steen and Warmack. All of those guys will almost certainly be drafted—Richardson, Kirkpatrick, and Carpenter are already in the league.

Conclusions

It took Saban three years to build a championship team, but the machine wasn't really in full gear until 2011. The 2010 Tide squad lost three regular season match-ups (South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn) before thumping STAEE in the Capital One Bowl. There is no doubt that his first three classes—especially his second and third—were the foundation of the '11 and '12 championship teams. What is interesting is how much those early classes got to contribute compared to his recent, even better classes. Even with a consistent exodus of talent—many of those drafted players left early—'Bama is fielding fewer freshmen now than it did in 2009. That '08 class really had the best opportunity to start early—since then only a handful of freshmen have seen significant playing time.

Below are the charts for 2010-2013. The IMPACT ratings are obviously incomplete, since most of those guys still have a chance to contribute. What you will notice is that the quality of Saban's classes has improved (though I'm not sure it can get much better than a 5.87 average rating). The Alabama Juggernaut has become and unstoppable force, and it's likely that only scandal or Saban's exit will stop it.

2010

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg IMPACT
DeMarcus Milliner DB 6'2" 180 4.5 5 stars 6.1 3
Dequan Menzie DB 5'11" 200   4 stars 5.9 3
C.J. Mosley LB 6'2" 212 4.5 4 stars 5.9 3
Deion Belue DB 6'0" 175 4.5 3 stars 5.6 3
John Fulton DB 6'1" 180 4.4 4 stars 5.9 2
Jalston Fowler RB 6'0" 240 4.8 4 stars 5.8 2
Adrian Hubbard DE 6'7" 227   4 stars 5.8 2
Nick Perry DB 6'2" 195 4.5 4 stars 5.8 2
Blake Sims ATH 6'0" 180 4.5 4 stars 5.8 2
Brandon Ivory DT 6'3" 330   3 stars 5.6 2
Cade Foster K 6'1" 215   3 stars 5.5 2
Alfy Hill DE 6'4" 222 4.6 4 stars 5.9 1
Arie Kouandjio OL 6'6" 314 5.2 4 stars 5.9 1
Phillip Sims QB 6'2" 209 4.8 4 stars 5.9 1
DeAndrew White WR 6'0" 170 4.4 4 stars 5.9 1
Jarrick Williams DB 6'2" 205 4.6 4 stars 5.9 1
Corey Grant RB 5'10" 186 4.4 4 stars 5.8 1
Keiwone Malone WR 6'1" 165 4.4 4 stars 5.8 1
Brian Vogler TE 6'7" 248 4.7 4 stars 5.8 1
Ronald Carswell WR 6'0" 180 4.5 3 stars 5.7 1
Harrison Jones TE 6'4" 230 4.8 3 stars 5.7 1
Brandon Lewis DT 6'3" 275   3 stars 5.7 1
Chad Lindsay OL 6'3" 307 5.4 3 stars 5.7 1
Austin Shepherd OL 6'5" 316 5.5 3 stars 5.7 1
Wilson Love DE 6'4" 235 4.8 3 stars 5.6 1
Jay Williams K 6'4" 220   2 stars 5.3 1
          avg 5.77  

2011

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg IMPACT
Hasean Clinton-Dix DB 6'2" 190   5 stars 6.1 3
Cyrus Kouandjio OL 6'7" 322 5 5 stars 6.1 3
Quinton Dial DE 6'6" 315   4 stars 5.8 3
Vinnie Sunseri LB 5'11" 193 4.6 3 stars 5.6 3
Jeoffrey Pagan DE 6'4" 272 4.6 4 stars 6 2
Jesse Williams DT 6'4" 330   4 stars 6 2
Xzavier Dickson DE 6'3" 238 4.8 4 stars 5.9 2
Trey DePriest LB 6'2" 231 4.6 4 stars 5.8 2
Chris Jones DB 6'0" 185 4.5 4 stars 5.8 2
D.J. Pettway DE 6'3" 255   4 stars 5.8 2
Demetrius Hart RB 5'8" 190 4.4 5 stars 6.1 1
Brent Calloway LB 6'1" 210 4.6 4 stars 6 1
Marvin Shinn WR 6'3" 177 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Aaron Douglas OL 6'6" 280   4 stars 5.8 1
Malcolm Faciane TE 6'6" 265   4 stars 5.8 1
LaMichael Fanning DT 6'6" 285   4 stars 5.8 1
Bradley Sylve WR 5'11" 175 4.4 4 stars 5.8 1
Danny Woodson WR 6'2" 200 4.5 4 stars 5.8 1
Phillip Ely QB 6'1" 186 4.6 3 stars 5.7 1
Ryan Kelly OL 6'5" 270 5 3 stars 5.7 1
Isaac Luatua OL 6'2" 299 5 3 stars 5.7 1
Jabriel Washington ATH 5'11" 165   3 stars 5.7 1
Duron Carter WR 6'2" 195   3 stars 5.6 1
          avg 5.84  

2012

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg IMPACT
T.J. Yeldon RB 6'2" 205 4.4 5 stars 6.1 3
Amari Cooper WR 6'1" 175   4 stars 6 3
Kenyan Drake RB 6'1" 195 4.4 4 stars 5.8 2
Deion Belue DB 6'0" 170   3 stars 5.6 2
Landon Collins DB 6'0" 199 4.4 5 stars 6.1 1
Eddie Williams ATH 6'4" 204   5 stars 6.1 1
Chris Black WR 5'11" 170   4 stars 6 1
Travell Dixon DB 6'2" 200 4.5 4 stars 6 1
Reggie Ragland LB 6'4" 245   4 stars 6 1
Ryan Anderson LB 6'3" 250   4 stars 5.9 1
Cyrus Jones ATH 5'11" 183 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Dillon Lee LB 6'4" 220   4 stars 5.9 1
Geno Smith DB 5'11" 180 4.5 4 stars 5.9 1
Denzel Devall LB 6'2" 236 4.6 4 stars 5.8 1
Brandon Greene OL 6'6" 280   4 stars 5.8 1
Tyler Hayes LB 6'3" 215   4 stars 5.8 1
Korren Kirven DT 6'4" 272 5.2 4 stars 5.8 1
Dalvin Tomlinson DT 6'2" 270 4.9 4 stars 5.8 1
Dakota Ball DT 6'2" 292 5.2 3 stars 5.7 1
Kurt Freitag TE 6'3" 245   3 stars 5.7 1
Brandon Hill OL 6'6" 352   3 stars 5.7 1
Alphonse Taylor DT 6'6" 340   3 stars 5.7 1
Caleb Gulledge OL 6'4" 255   3 stars 5.6 1
Darren Lake DT 6'3" 330   3 stars 5.6 1
Alec Morris QB 6'3" 235   3 stars 5.6 1
Adam Griffith K 5'11" 175   3 stars 5.5 1
          avg 5.82  

2013

 

Name Pos Ht Wt 40 Stars Rivals Rtg
Jonathan Allen DE 6'3" 263 4.5 5 stars 6.1
Reuben Foster LB 6'1" 244   5 stars 6.1
O.J. Howard TE 6'6" 235 4.5 5 stars 6.1
A'Shawn Robinson DT 6'4" 320 5.1 5 stars 6.1
Robert Foster WR 6'3" 187   4 stars 6.0
Derrick Henry RB 6'3" 243 4.5 4 stars 6.0
Grant Hill OL 6'6" 301   4 stars 6.0
Tyren Jones RB 5'9" 215   4 stars 6.0
Alvin Kamara RB 5'10" 197 4.5 4 stars 6.0
Dee Liner DE 6'3" 281   4 stars 6.0
ArDarius Stewart ATH 6'1" 190   4 stars 6.0
Altee Tenpenny RB 6'0" 212 4.5 4 stars 6.0
Maurice Smith DB 6'0" 180 4.5 4 stars 5.9
Tim Williams DE 6'3" 235   4 stars 5.9
Cooper Bateman QB 6'3" 215 4.8 4 stars 5.8
Raheem Falkins WR 6'4" 195 4.5 4 stars 5.8
Darius Paige DT 6'4" 314   4 stars 5.8
Jonathan Cook DB 6'0" 185 4.5 3 stars 5.7
Brandon Hill OL 6'7" 390   3 stars 5.7
Eddie Jackson WR 6'0" 175   3 stars 5.7
Walker Jones LB 6'2" 234 4.6 3 stars 5.7
Leon Brown OL 6'6" 300   3 stars 5.6
Cole Mazza OL 6'1" 240   3 stars 5.6
Parker McLeod QB 6'3" 190   3 stars 5.6
Anthony Averett ATH 6'0" 170 4.4 3 stars 5.5
          avg 5.87

 

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 2-11-13

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 2-11-13

Submitted by Ace on February 11th, 2013 at 7:06 PM

Note: I know these rankings are a little simple, so if you want to know how I'd personally rank these classes, my favorite method is The Mathlete's

It was a relatively quiet Signing Day, but there was still some movement in the B1G rankings, especially at the bottom of the board. While the top five remained steady, Purdue leaped from 10th up to 5th and Indiana jumped to 9th, leaving a couple big names (and Minnesota) to bring up the rear. Changes since last rankings:

2-3-13: Purdue picks up Keith Byars II.
2-4-13: Ohio State picks up Dontre Wilson. Purdue picks up Dalyn Dawkins. Wisconsin picks up Tanner McEvoy. Minnesota picks up Daletavious McGhee.
2-5-13: Nebraska picks up Dwayne Johnson. Purdue picks up TyVel Jemison. Iowa picks up Reggie Spearman. Wisconsin picks up Donnell Vercher. Minnesota picks up Donovahn Jones.
2-6-13: Notre Dame picks up Eddie Vanderdoes. Ohio State picks up Vonn Bell and James Clark. Taivon Jacobs decommits from Ohio State (Maryland). Maryland picks up Taivon Jacobs and Jacquille Veii. Purdue picks up Da'Wan Hunte. Iowa picks up Jonathan Parker. Indiana picks up Maurice Swain, Laray Smith, and Chris Cormier. Nigel Tribune decommits from Indiana (Iowa State). Minnesota picks up De'Vondre Campbell.
2-7-13: Johnny Townsend decommits from Ohio State (Florida).

Chart? Chart:

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # Commits Rivals Avg Scout Avg 24/7 Avg ESPN Avg Avg Avg^ POINTS*
1 Michigan 27 3.63 3.81 3.63 3.59 3.67 99.00
2 Notre Dame 24 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 94.00
3 Ohio State 24 3.83 4.00 3.95 3.83 3.91 93.75
4 Nebraska 26 3.15 3.31 3.27 3.31 3.26 84.75
5 Illinois 26 2.73 2.77 2.73 2.96 2.80 72.75
6 Purdue 24 2.71 2.58 2.67 2.96 2.73 65.50
7 Rutgers 22 2.82 2.91 2.82 3.14 2.92 64.25
8 Maryland 22 2.86 2.73 2.86 3.09 2.89 63.50
9 Indiana 22 2.95 2.82 2.50 2.77 2.76 60.75
10 Iowa 21 2.81 2.71 2.90 2.81 2.81 59.00
11 Michigan State 18 3.11 3.06 3.11 3.22 3.13 56.25
12 Northwestern 19 2.89 3.00 2.84 3.00 2.93 55.75
13 Wisconsin 16 2.94 3.00 2.89 3.17 3.00 54.00
14 Penn State 17 3.00 3.00 3.29 3.18 3.12 53.00
15 Minnesota 19 2.74 2.42 2.79 2.89 2.71 51.50

^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

*The product of number of Commits and Average Average

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.

On to the full data after the jump.

OT - Ole Miss Recruiting....pee in the cup

OT - Ole Miss Recruiting....pee in the cup

Submitted by AC1997 on February 7th, 2013 at 1:30 AM

Since it was a slow (but happy) National Signing Day for Michigan fans, I thought I'd take on a related topic today regarding recruiting and our friends in SEC land. 

As Brian briefly touched on during his NSD piece, Bill Simmons’ latest column dealt with the subject of steroids and how the media avoids speculation about who might be juicing.  It is a really good piece that you should read.  The message is this – we all have a mental list of players who we want to see pee in a cup to prove their innocence…..why not openly talk about those lists? 

Many of us feel like NCAA corruption is a similar topic – taboo to the main stream media.  Much like how the baseball writers looked the other way when McGwire and Sosa were “saving the sport” we see college media look the other way as Saban hands out medical redshirts like candy, Reggie Bush lives in free housing, Oregon pays a pseudo agent, or OSU lets players trade equipment for benefits around town.  Why has there never been a “deep throat source” willing to blow up recruiting violations?  John Bacon even touches on the subject in “Three And Out” when interviewing the quarterbacks, but doesn’t dig deeper. 

In 2013 the obvious “pee in the cup” list for recruiting corruption starts with Ole Miss.  This is a team with a mediocre recent past if we’re being  generous.  They haven’t won the SEC since the 1960’s and haven’t been relevant nationally except for their #20 finish in 2009.  Yet this season they bring in a consensus top ten recruiting class and some of the nation’s best players.  What gives?

It is easy to speculate about potential corruption but aside from a picture on LaQuan Treadwell’s twitter account of him holding several hundred dollars, there’s no way for us to have any evidence.  So we could sit here and rant about it while sounding like Skip Bayliss debating the wonders of Tim Tebow, but then the message is lost.  Can we find statistical evidence that something is deviating from the norm with Ole Miss? 

I contend that there are several ways we can do this, and I’m going to start such a conversation.  However, I have neither the time nor the skill to finish this scavenger hunt so I wanted to post this primer and then let the power of the Michigan blog sphere potentially dig further if there’s interest.

Below is a table summarizing Mississippi’s recruiting classes from the past several years along with their final record and rank:

Season

Final

Record

Class

Rank

Total # of

Recruits

5* Recruits

(# from MS)

4* Recruits

(# from MS)

4-5* NOT

from MS

2013

n/a 7 27 3 (0) 9 (5) 7
2012 7-6 40 19 0 (-) 2 (1) 1
2011 2-10 19 27 1 (1) 5 (5) 0
2010 4-8 18 25 0 (-) 7 (6) 1
2009 9-4 18 37 1 (0) 8 (2) 7
2008 9-4 29 31 1 (0) 2 (0) 3
2007 3-9 27 22 0 (-) 6 (1) 5
2006 4-8 15 30 2 (0) 7 (4) 5
2005 3-8 30 28 1 (1) 2 (0) 2
2004 4-7 45 25 0 (-) 3 (3) 0
2003 10-3 38 21 0 (-) 2 (1) 1
2002 7-6 33 18 1 (1) 8 (7) 1

 

Without running any data through statistical analysis, here are some observations:

  • There were several good recruits in the state of Mississippi this season and historically players from that state stay home to play football.  The Rebels deserve credit for signing those guys and that helps to tone down suspicion perhaps. 
  • Coach Hugh Freeze was hired before last season and did enact somewhat of a turn-around with a 7-6 record that included a bowl win.  New coaches can sometimes lead to a bump in recruiting prowess.  However, prior to this season he had a total of ONE YEAR of college head coaching experience…..at Arkansas State. 
  • But there’s still something out of the ordinary going on here:

    • Ole Miss has never had a class ranked higher than 15th….but this year they are 7th.  It would also seem that their higher ranked classes from past years were based as much on quantity (37 recruits in 2009???) as quality. 
    • In the four previous seasons Ole Miss got a TOTAL of eight players ranked 4-star or higher to commit from out of state.  In 2013 they have seven
    • Only one five-star recruit in four seasons has attended from out of state….three are coming this year. 
    • From 2010-2012 the Rebels had a record of 13-24 and pulled in a total of one 5-star and fourteen 4-star recruits, all but one of whom were from the state of Mississippi.  This season they have signed twelve top recruits and just five are from the state.

It is very possible that Hugh Freeze is a great recruiter and has found a new method that is within the rules to attract this talent.  It is also possible that this recruiting class had somewhat of a snowball effect and talent attracted talent.  But there’s enough circumstantial evidence here for further investigation.  This is where I turn it over to the talent on this blog.  Here are some ideas for further analysis:

  • Have other teams out-performed their historical trends by this much in the recent past?
  • Based on the presumed correlation between record and recruiting success (probably 2-year record) has any other team out-performed their on-field success this abnormally before? 
  • Can we quantify the typical recruiting improvement a coach sees after his first year and compare it to what Freeze is doing? 
  • Has anyone on the blog been recruited and witnessed corruption first hand?
  • Are there any theories on why this seemingly obvious corruption hasn't come out in the open at any school despite the large number of people involved and the fact that many of these people are teenage kids not being recruited for their ACT scores? 

Maybe I'm alone in my frustration on this topic, but when you hear ESPN go on and on about the SEC and even Ole Miss specifically on signing day I'd like to hear someone at least ask the question - how are they doing this? 

 

 

 

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 2-4-13

Big Ten Recruiting Rankings 2-4-13

Submitted by Ace on February 4th, 2013 at 6:35 PM

As promised, here is where the recruiting rankings stand with two days until Signing Day 2013. Michigan still has command of the board, and a few of the Big Ten's best programs still languish in the bottom half of the rankings. Link to last rankings (too many changes to list).

Chart? Chart:

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # Commits Rivals Avg Scout Avg 24/7 Avg ESPN Avg Avg Avg^ POINTS*
1 Michigan 27 3.63 3.81 3.63 3.59 3.67 99.00
2 Notre Dame 23 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 89.00
3 Ohio State 23 3.65 3.87 3.78 3.78 3.77 86.75
4 Nebraska 25 3.16 3.32 3.28 3.32 3.27 81.75
5 Illinois 26 2.73 2.77 2.73 2.96 2.80 72.75
6 Rutgers 22 2.82 2.91 2.82 3.14 2.92 64.25
7 Maryland 20 2.90 2.75 2.90 3.05 2.90 58.00
8 Michigan State 18 3.11 3.06 3.11 3.22 3.13 56.25
9 Northwestern 19 2.89 3.00 2.84 3.00 2.93 55.75
10 Purdue 20 2.70 2.55 2.65 3.00 2.73 54.50
11 Iowa 19 2.84 2.74 2.89 2.84 2.83 53.75
12 Penn State 17 3.00 3.00 3.29 3.18 3.12 53.00
13 Indiana 19 2.95 2.79 2.37 2.79 2.72 51.75
14 Wisconsin 16 2.94 3.06 2.81 3.19 3.00 48.00
15 Minnesota 16 2.75 2.44 2.81 2.88 2.72 43.50

^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

*The product of number of Commits and Average Average

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.

On to the full data after the jump.

Hello: Jack Wangler (Walk-On)

Hello: Jack Wangler (Walk-On)

Submitted by Leaders And Best on February 2nd, 2013 at 7:14 PM

WR Jack Wangler, son of former QB John Wangler, has accepted a preferred walk-on position at Michigan. Nice to see the bloodline continue.

jack wangler @J_Wangler21

I have decided to commit as a preferred walk on at the University of Michigan.Thank you to everyone who has helped me along the way. GO BLUE

5* DT A'Shawn Robinson flips to Alabama

5* DT A'Shawn Robinson flips to Alabama

Submitted by Leaders And Best on February 2nd, 2013 at 5:27 PM

5 star DT A'Shawn Robinson, the prized recruit in Texas' class, has flipped to Alabama after being committed for over a year. This should probably end all speculation on Henry Poggi. On another note, Texas probably picked the worst time to turn into a dumpster fire. A&M leaves for the SEC and Manziel wins the Heisman, and now Texas is losing its grip on in-state recruiting.

At least Texas fans have the Longhorn Network. Hope it was worth it.

Geoff Ketchum @gkketch

OB has confirmed that A'Shawn Robinson has informed the Texas coaches in an in-home visit that he will sign with Alabama on Wednesday.

On IPCs and Football Scholarships

On IPCs and Football Scholarships

Submitted by EGD on January 29th, 2013 at 3:32 AM

 

As any chess master will tell you, allowing one’s pieces to languish on the back rank is a certain invitation to humiliating defeat.   Or, as anyone who has ever played Axis & Allies well knows, a general who hordes his Industrial Production Certificates will quickly fall to the opponent who transforms hers into military units and strategically deploys them as rapidly as possible.  So I was quite surprised the other day when several posters suggested that Michigan ought to “bank” its last remaining scholarship for the 2013 class, rather than sign a player who might not arrive in Ann Arbor with the highest of expectations.  Like chessmen or IPCs, I have always felt that a football coach must aggressively leverage production from his full complement of 85 scholarships—or as many of that number as possible—if he hopes to outcompete the other 120 programs in the country. 

Scholarships are not chessmen, of course, nor are they IPCs—and the calculus that goes into offering and signing a collegiate student-athlete is quite a bit different than the evaluation of choices in a board game.  So, although the idea of purposefully letting a scholarship go unfilled struck me as intuitively unwise, the suggestion did not seem entirely without merit.  After all—if by passing on a probable depth player in 2013, Michigan could sign a likely frontline contributor in 2014, then the payoff might be worth the investment.  The overarching strategic principles remain sound and generally applicable, I felt, but is this case the exception?  I decided to take a closer look. 

Most estimates place the expected size of Michigan’s 2014 class at around 17 scholarships.  This projection appears based on fifteen players exhausting their eligibility in 2013, and two redshirt juniors not being offered fifth years.  With usual attrition, UM would more realistically expect to have about 20 scholarships available.  But for purposes of this analysis, I will presume the 17 figure holds true.

Banking a 2013 scholarship would enable UM to sign an 18th player in the 2014 class.  Therefore one part of the “to-bank-or-not-to-bank” equation seems to be the reasonably anticipated quality of the eighteenth recruit in UM’s 2014 class.

In 2012, Michigan had twelve recruits who received four or five stars on Rivals; the 18th-highest recruit would have been a 3-star with a 5.7 grade (Ben Braden, Jeremy Clark, Devin Funchess, Matt Godin, Mario Ojemudia, Kaleb Ringer, AJ Williams, and Chris Wormley fit that description, according to Rivals).  In 2013, Michigan has seventeen recruits with at least four stars and a 5.8 grade, though the 18th-best recruit again checks in with 3 stars and a 5.7 grade.  Therefore, Michigan’s performance in the last two recruiting cycles would seem to suggest that banking a 2013 scholarship would most likely produce a high (5.7) 3-star recruit to Rivals. 

A slightly improved performance in 2014 could realistically land a low (5.8) 4-star recruit.  However, between 2005 and 2012 only twelve recruiting classes have featured at least 18 players rated four stars or higher on Rivals.  And, of those twelve classes, all but two (2006 FSU and 2008 ND) belonged to teams that had won (mythical) national titles within the preceding decade.  Michigan, which hasn’t won the MNC since 1997 and hasn’t seriously contended for one since 2006, and which doesn’t happen to be in a talent-abundant state like Florida or have a Catholic pipeline like ND, would not seem especially well-positioned to defy this pattern.  On the other hand, Scout.com (which is a bit more generous with their star rankings) lists fifteen classes with eighteen or more 4+stars from 2005-12, and is already projecting two more for 2013: one of which belongs to Michigan.

We can thus assume that a hypothetical 18th recruit for 2014 would likely be a player on the 3-4 star borderline, with a Rivals grade of 5.7 or 5.8.  Maybe not a heavy bomber, but still a pretty high-quality recruit either way.  The drawback, of course, is that player would not join the team until the 2014 season. 

While landing eighteen or more 4-stars is uncommon—and almost unheard-of for non-MNC contenders—landing twenty-seven or more 3-stars ain’t no thang.  Between 2005 and 2012, there were 32 recruiting classes of 27 or more players that finished with a top-15 ranking on Rivals.  Of those classes, 18 (or 56.25%) had at least 27 players rated 3-stars or higher.  Now, if we were at the beginning of the 2013 recruiting cycle and were trying to predict Michigan’s chances of signing at least 27 three-stars, this percentage would already suggest Michigan has pretty good odds of pulling it off.  But with UM having already obtained verbals from 27 players, of whom 26 are rated 3+ stars (the 27th recruit is LS Scott Sypniewski)—and needing only to fill the one remaining spot, the chances of Michigan being able to find one more 3-star recruit for that final spot would appear to approach 100%. 

So, let’s assume for purposes of the remaining discussion that the final spot would to go a (mid) three-star player with a Rivals grade of 5.6.  This player would be a tad less talented than the hypothetical 2014 signee, but would have one more year of experience in the program.  Assuming one year of collegiate coaching and strength & conditioning is equal to or greater than the value of a .15 upgrade on the Rivals grading scale, recruiting a slightly less-talented player in 2013 is at worst equivalent to signing a more talented player in 2014 (as the 2013 player’s redshirt season cancels out the banked-scholarship season for a recruit who plays as a true freshman).  But, assuming both players would redshirt their first years in the program, UM would sacrifice an entire season of production from one scholarship position.  It is doubtful that the slightly greater overall production one might expect from a 2014 player over the course of his career would sufficiently off-set this high immediate cost.

 

Player #28 of 2013 Class

Player #18 of 2014 Class

2013

Redshirt (no production)  or 5.6

X – No Production

2014

5.6 + 1 year

Redshirt (no production) or 5.7

2015

5.6 + 2 years

5.75 + 1 year

2016

5.6 + 3 years

5.75 + 2 years

2017

5.6 + 4 years or new recruit

5.75 + 3 years

2018

New recruit

5.75 + 4 years or new recruit

Conclusion

In the end, while there appears to be a stronger case for banking the last scholarship than I expected, I still think UM ought to take another player if they can find a Willie Henry or Dennis Norfleet type of player to come on board.  The potential benefits of saving the scholarship for 2014 are tenuous and distant, while the costs are immediate and certain.  Moreover, any attrition that occurs between now and 2014 will further diminish the expected returns from the hypothetical 2014 player, as a 19th recruit taken in 2014 is presumably less likely to be of four-star quality than the 18th, a 20th player even less, and so on.  Then, of course, some of the most likely targets for that final spot are defensive tackles, who would become subject to the Heininger Certainty Principle (which, frankly, is better than super submarines, long-range aircraft, or even V-2 rockets!).  

[Edit: Nerd that I am, I suppose I subconsciously view Axis & Allies as essentially a gen-X Monopoly or Clue—that is, a board game title with which anyone within, say, ten years of my (37 year-old) vintage ought to be reasonably familiar.  Thus, as I was trying to finish this diary in the wee hours last night, I evidently didn’t think it necessary to include a brief primer on what A&A actually is, or the basic strategy underlying the game-play.  Having thought better of the matter this morning, I offer the following supplement.

A&A is a famously-imbalanced, turn-based World War II strategy game that involves five players on two de facto teams: the Axis (with one player controlling Germany and the other Japan) and the Allies (comprised of players for the USA, UK, and Russia).  Each turn follows a pre-set sequence: Russia plays first, followed by Germany, then UK, then Japan, then USA.  Within each turn, a player first “purchases” military units using the currency of the game, Industrial Production Certificates (or “IPCs”).  A player receives IPCs by controlling territories on the game board (generally speaking, the more heavily industrialized the territory is, the more IPCs it is worth).  Once the units are purchased, however, they may not be deployed until the end of the player’s turn.  In the meantime, the player may maneuver his units and attack opponents—but only using his or her pre-existing units. 

Industrial Production Certificates are collected at the very end of a player’s turn, after all movement and combat has taken place.  And the amount of IPCs a player has to spend at the beginning of his or her next turn may be reduced through bombing raids or rocket attacks that other players launch in the meantime.  Furthermore, new units may only be deployed in spaces where a player has an “industrial complex”—often the only such space is a player’s home country—so it may take one or more future turns for a newly-deployed unit to travel to a forward area of the board where it can make a meaningful contribution to the game.  Therefore, it behooves any player to spend his or her entire allotment of IPCs at every opportunity—thus converting them into actual units that can occupy, defend, or invade territories (thus preserving or increasing a player’s future IPC stream).]

Commence speculation-meltdown-Green watch...

Commence speculation-meltdown-Green watch...

Submitted by HarBooYa on January 25th, 2013 at 4:56 PM

 

I promised myself not to get to worked up about one recruit or another...but while looking at the ESPN UofM twitter stream I saw this....and got sucked back in...dangit....
 

Imma shock the world tomorrow lol!! You just dont no!!

Retweeted by Maurice Hurst Jr✊
 
Commence speculation as to what this means for the next 24 hours or so...ugh.