How the Coach's (Basketball) Poll Reacts to B1G Results

How the Coach's (Basketball) Poll Reacts to B1G Results

Submitted by Mmmm Hmmm on January 21st, 2013 at 1:21 PM

Much to my surprise, there has been some demand to look at the relationship between basketball results and the Coach's Poll, the same way I have looked at B1G football results and the Coach's Poll. Apologies for any errors; copying results off of ESPN.com and lining it up by week was an invitation to mix a few things up (an opportunity I am sure I took).  Also, I know some of the games at tournaments are not accurately labeled--I might have to update.

How to read: The week reflects the week of the results; RESULT #XX reflects the poll ranking following those results.  This is intended to make it easier to follow a potential cause (results) with the effect (ranking).

 

INDIANA (Preseason #1)
  • Week 1:  Beat Bryant 97-54 (RESULT #1)
  • Week 2:  Beat NDSU 87-61, Beat Sam Houston St. 99-45 (RESULT #1)
  • Week 3: Won @ Georgia 66-53, Won @ Georgetown 82-72, beat Ball St. 101-53 (P.S. Brady Hoke now hates you, Tom Crean) (RESULT #1
  • Week 4: Beat UNC 83-59, beat Coppin St. 87-51 (RESULT #1)
  • Week 5: Beat Central Conn. St. 100-69  (RESULT #1)
  • Week 6: Lost @ Butler, 88-86  (RESULT #6)
  • Week 7: Beat Mt. St. Mary's, 93-54, beat Fla. Atl. 88-52  (RESULT #5)
  • Week 8: Beat Jacksonville, 93-59  (RESULT #5)
  • Week 9: Won @ Iowa 69-65  (RESULT #5)
  • Week 10: Won @ Penn St. 74-51, beat Minnesota 88-81 (RESULT #2)
 
Ohio* (Preseason #4)
  • Week 1: Beat Albany (RESULT: #4)
  • Week 2: Won @ URI 69-58, Beat Washington 77-66 (RESULT: #3)
  • Week 3: Beat UMKC 91-45 (RESULT: #4)
  • Week 4: Lost @ Duke, 73-68, beat NKU 70-43 (RESULT: #7)
  • Week 5: Beat Long Beach St. 89-55 (RESULT: #7)
  • Week 6: Beat Savannah St., 85-45, beat UNC-Asheville 90-72 (RESULT: #7)
  • Week 7: Beat Winthrop 65-55, lost to Kansas 74-66 (RESULT: #10)
  • Week 8: Beat Chicago St. 87-44 (RESULT: #8)
  • Week 9: Beat Nebraska 70-44, lost @ Illinois 74-55 (RESULT: #14)
  • Week 10: Won @ Purdue 74-64, beat Michigan 56-53 (and resolved to break referees' glasses before every home game) (RESULT: #11)
 
Michigan (Preseason #5)
  • Week 1: Beat Slippery Rock, 82-60  (RESULT: #5)
  • Week 2: Beat IUPUI 91-54, Beat Cleveland St. 77-47 (RESULT: #4)
  • Week 3: Beat Pitt at a tournament, 67-62, beat K-State at same tournament 71-57 (RESULT: #3)
  • Week 4: Beat NC State 79-72, Won @ Bradley 74-66 (RESULT: #3)
  • Week 5: Beat W. Michigan 73-41, Beat Arkansas 80-67 (RESULT: #3)
  • Week 6: Beat Binghamton 67-39, beat W. Va. 81-66 (RESULT: #2)
  • Week 7: Beat E. Michigan 93-54 (RESULT: #2)
  • Week 8: Beat C. Michigan, 88-73 (RESULT: #2)
  • Week 9: Won @ Northwestern 94-66, beat Iowa 95-67 (RESULT: #2)
  • Week 10: Beat Nebraska 62-47, lost @ Ohio* 56-53 (and purchased glasses for all of the referees) (RESULT: #5)
 
MSU (Preseason #14)
  • Week 1: Lost in Germany to UConn 66-62 (RESULT: #22)
  • Week 2: Won @ Kansas 67-64, beat TX Southern 69-41 (RESULT: #19)
  • Week 3: Beat Boise St. 74-70 (narrow win over crappy BSU team--Izzo imitating Dantonio...), Beat Oakland 70-52, Beat LA-Lafayette 63-60 (RESULT: #14)
  • Week 4: Lost @ Miami (YTM) 67-59, beat Nicholls St. 84-39 (RESULT: #17)
  • Week 5: Beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 76-44, beat Loyola (of Illinois) 73-61 (RESULT: #19)
  • Week 6: Beat Tuskegee 92-56 (RESULT: #19)
  • Week 7: Won @ Bowling Green 64-53, beat Texas 67-56 (RESULT: #19)
  • Week 8: No games (RESULT: #18)
  • Week 9: Lost @ Minnesota 76-63, beat Purude 84-61 (RESULT: #18)
  • Week 10: Won @ Iowa 62-59, beat Nebraska 66-56 (RESULT: #17)
 
Wisconsin (Preseason #21)
  • Week 1: Beat SE Louisiana 87-47 (RESULT: #20)
  • Week 2:  Loss @ Florida 74-56, beat Cornell 73-40 (RESULT: #24)
  • Week 3:  Beat Presbyterian 88-43, Lost to Creighton 84-74, Won @ Arkansas 77-70 (take that, Bret Bielema) (RESULT: NR, 7th vote getter)
  • Week 4:  Lost to Virginia 60-54, beat California 81-56 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
  • Week 5:  Beat Nebraska-Omaha 86-40, lost @ Marquette 60-50 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
  • Week 6:  Beat Wisconsin-Green Bay 65-54 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
  • Week 7: Beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 74-53 (RESULT: NR, no votes
  • Week 8: Beat Samford 87-51 (RESULT: NR, no votes)
  • Week 9: (RESULT: NR, no votes) Beat Penn St. 60-51, won @ Nebraska 47-41
  • Week 10:  Beat Illinois, 74-51, won @ Indiana 64-59 (RESULT: NR, 4th vote getter--I guess it helps to win @ Indiana. A lot.)
 
Minnesota (Preseason NR, 9th vote getter)
  • Week 1:  Beat American, 72-36 (RESULT: NR, 11th vote getter)
  • Week 2: Beat Toledo 82-56, beat Tennessee St., 72-43, beat Richmond 72-57 (RESULT: NR, 5th vote getter) 
  • Week 3: Lost to Duke, 71-89, beat Memphis 84-75, beat Stanford 66-63 (RESULT: NR, 1st vote getter)
  • Week 4:  Won @ Fla. St. 77-68, Beat N. Fla. 87-59 (RESULT: #21)
  • Week 5: Beat SDSU 88-64, won @ USC (of California) 71-57 (RESULT: #16)
  • Week 6: Beat NDSU 70-57 (RESULT: #16)
  • Week 7: Beat Lafayette, 75-50 (RESULT: #14)
  • Week 8: No games (RESULT: #13)
  • Week 9: Beat MSU 76-63, beat Northwestern 69-51 (RESULT: #10)
  • Week 10: Won @ Illinois 84-67, lost @ Indiana 88-81 (RESULT:#12)
 
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS:
  1. There seem to be fewer inexplicable jumps when looking solely at a team's results than in football (there is no equivalent to NW's incredible jump after clubbing a floundering Illinois team).  The closest I could find is MSU losing @ YTM and still going up two slots.  But other than that...
  2. It appears that if you lose, no matter how good the opponent and how highly ranked you are, the team is going to drop.  This is in contrast with football, where a team who played a very tough road game (like Indiana at Butler, or Michigan at Ohio*) and lost would not slide more than a slot or two.
  3. I do not know whether it is that there are more games, the voters play closer attention, or the box score really does tell you more (there is no bball equivalent to a fluke game-changing interception or punt return for touchdown, at least in terms of magnitude), or that the computer ranking system is more respected for basketball (RPI vs BCS), but there appears to be a higher correlation between team results and moves in the rankings despite having significantly more basketball teams.

Thoughts? Comments? Errors?