2010 quarterback royal rumble

[Ed.: Many excellent diaries of late that all but demand bumps. Larsonlo's Football Fundamentals 101 series is a must-read that will hit the front page at some point and the Mathlete's back, plus Misopogon is analyzing Cam Gordon in crushingly detailed fashion. Here's a quick one that hints at the QB duel winner.]

The quarterback is obviously the single most important position in Rich Rodriguez's offense, so I decided to take a look at some numbers from his time at West Virginia up until this past season at Michigan. What I found, while not exactly scientific, is pretty damn interesting.

Before I get to the summary, let's take a look at the charts... [ed: charts.]

West Virginia QB Charts

Year
Record
Player
Passing
Rushing
QB Rush%
Rush % Total
QB yds
Total Team
Offense Rush %
2001
3-8 (1-6)
Brad
Lewis
135/237
1,339yds
7TDs, 9INTs
54att,
41yds,
1 TD
18.6%
2.97%
52.4%
1,992 Rushing
1,811 Passing
2002
9-4 (6-1)
Rasheed
Marshall
139/259
1,616yds
9TDs, 5 INTs
173att,
666yds,
13 TDs
40.0%
29.2%
67.8%
3,687 Rushing
1,753 Passing
2003
8-5 (6-1)
Rasheed
Marshall
109/215
1,729yds
15 TDs, 8 INTs
101att,
303yds,
4 TDs
32.0%
14.9%
57.6%
2,762 Rushing
2,034 Passing
2004
8-4 (4-2)
Rasheed
Marshall
144/242
1,886yds
19 TDs, 9 INTs
169att,
861yds,
4 TDs
41.0%
31.3%
60.4%
3,034 Rushing
1,993 Passing
2005
11-1 (7-0)
Pat White
65/114
828yds
8 TDs, 5 INTs
131att,
952yds,
7 TDs
53.4%
53.5%
73.2%
3,269 Rushing
1,398 Passing
2006
11-2 (5-2)
Pat White
118/179
1,655yds
13 TDs, 7 INTs
165att,
1,219yds,
18 TDs
47.9%
42.4%
65.7%
3,939 Rushing
2,059 Passing
2007
11-2 (5-2)
Pat White
144/216
1,724yds
14 TDs, 4 INTs
197att,
1,335yds
14 TDs
47.7%
43.6%
65.1%
3,864 Rushing
2,067 Passing

Michigan QB Charts

Year
Record
Player
Passing
Rushing
QB Rush %
Rush % Total
QB yds
Total Team
Offense Rush %
2008
3-9 (2-6)
Steven
Sheridan
165/338
1,718yds
11 TDs, 12 INTs
118att,
293yds,
3 TDs
25.9%
14.6%
50.8%
1,771 Rushing
1,718 Passing
2009
5-7 (1-7)
Denard
Forcier
179/312
2,233yds
15 TDs, 14 INTs
187att,
591yds,
8 TDs
37.5%
21.0%
48.4%
2,234 Rushing
2,380 Passing
 
In Rodriguez's career at West Virginia there was a striking correlation between the amount of the quarterback's total yards came from rushing and the success of the team. When you sort by this statistic, from 2001-2007, this is what you get:
 
Year
Rush %
Total QB Yards
Record
2005 53.5% 11-1 (7-0)
2007 43.6% 11-2 (5-2)
2006 42.4% 11-2 (5-2)
2004 31.3% 8-4 (4-2)
2002 29.2% 9-4 (6-1)
2003 14.9% 8-5 (6-1)
2001 2.97% 3-8 (1-6)

Throwing the two seasons at Michigan into the mix wouldn't change much, either. The 2008 and 2009 campaigns would be two of the bottom four performances in terms of how many of the quarterback's yards came on the ground and two of the bottom three in terms of overall record.

Even beyond just the quarterback's performance in the offense, however, Rich Rod's offenses seem to thrive when the majority of the overall offense is primarily generated on the ground. From his last nine seasons:

Year
Total Team Offense Rush %
Record
2005
73.2%
11-1
(7-0)
2002
67.8%
9-4
(6-1)
2006
65.7%
11-2
(5-2)
2007
65.1%
11-2
(5-2)
2004
60.4%
8-4
(4-2)
2003
57.6%
8-5
(6-1)
2001
52.4%
3-8
(1-6)
2008
50.8%
3-9
(2-6)
2009
48.4%
5-7
(1-7)

And these aren't even necessarily based on the quality of the team. If this was ranked on team total rushing yards it would make sense that more yards would generally be correlated to a better record, but these are rushing percentages compared to the rest of the offense on a year-by-year basis, comparing one aspect of the team to another aspect of the same team.

Very interesting findings, if you ask me. Findings that point to Denard Robinson being the ticket to the promised land? Maybe. Clearly Rich Rodriguez's offense flourishes with a quarterback that can run, and run often. His best team had 73% of their total offense come on the ground. Its quarterback ran for 125 more yards than he passed for. Sounds like Denard to me.

Also notice that after White's first season--in which passing was sporadic and the team was heavily reliant on his rushing offense--his passing stats took off. As Denard's passing game develops, his rushing options will open up more, and as Steve Slaton got to experience, this opens the door for an unbelievable rushing attack from your running backs as well.

Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you see in these stats, or if they even matter to you at all. I look forward to hearing what you get out of these numbers. [Ed: /Ives.]

Thanks for reading,

CollegeFootball13