Hokepoints Updates RYPR

Hokepoints Updates RYPR

Submitted by Seth on May 20th, 2014 at 2:49 PM

BLF_3124

Upchurch

Bill Connelly a few years back created a new uberstat for receivers called RYPR (receiving yards/total team plays *Passing S&P+). His description:

Below, you will find a measure that attempts to answer the following questions about a given pass-catcher:

  • 1) How much do you produce?
  • 2) How important are you to your team's passing game?
  • 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important?
  • 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense?

The idea was to simply multiply the following four factors together: a player's Yards Per Target, his Target Rate, his team's Passing S&P+, and his team's pass rate. Target Rate x Yards Per Target x Passing S&P+ x Pass Rate = RYPR.

He last updated this in October. So I updated, using data made available by cfbstats.com, and Fremeau's S&P+ team rating. Here's all 1,167 guys with at least 10 targets in 2013:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rkk-xZfImYtSw-RSE2OJKatAayoPbUA_AdFsGSF9J8s/edit?usp=sharing

Let's skip right to Michigan

I went through several iterations trying to match exactly what Connelly had done, so this may not match the results I reported beforehand. Here's the breakdown of Michigan's targets with NCAA averages in parentheses:

Target # Receiver RYPR (NCAA avg) Yards/Tgt Target Rate
1 Jeremy Gallon 178.0 (102.6) 10 (8.6) 32% (23%)
2 Devin Funchess 97.0 (68.8) 8.1 (8.1) 21% (17%)
3 Drew Dileo 22.6 (49.5) 5.8 (7.8) 7% (12%)
4 Jake Butt 30.5 (36.6) 8.7 (7.7) 6% (9%)
5 Jehu Chesson 28.7 (27.0) 9.2 (7.2) 6% (7%)
6 Fitz Toussaint 26.3 (20.9) 10.2 (6.7) 5% (6%)
7 Jeremy Jackson 9.2 (17.1) 7.1 (7.0) 2% (5%)

Funchess's 97.0 was 22nd among teams' second targets though his yards per target were average for No. 2 guys. The max protect stuff in the season's third quarter (Indiana through Nebraska) bore out in the numbers, with that third receiver (Dileo) far under the typical third receiver's usage.

Best Receivers in a Bad B1G

Gallon wasn't the only long term top receiver to graduate last year, and the conference wasn't very deep on receiving talent to begin with. The result is not many wideouts left in-conference to have cracked that 100 (average for a team's best receiver) mark. In 2013 the Big Ten average RYPR for its teams' top three receivers was 69.5, last among major conferences and just ahead of the Sun Belt and Conf USA. When I removed all seniors the Big Ten was behind the MAC (Conference USA was still very worse). Here's the best among those that remain.

Receivers Team Tgt Rec Yds YPT Tgt Rt 1st Dn% RYPR
Devin Funchess Michigan #2 49 748 8.1 24.7% 36% 113.6
Christian Jones Northwestern #2 54 668 8.7 21.2% 52% 98.1
Tony Jones Northwestern #1 55 616 7.7 22.0% 39% 90.5
Shane Wynn Indiana #3 46 633 9.7 14.3% 35% 89.0
Devin Smith Ohio State #2 44 660 9.0 20.9% 34% 88.7
Levern Jacobs Maryland #1 47 633 8.8 18.2% 31% 88.1
Stefon Diggs Maryland #3 34 587 10.5 14.2% 43% 81.7
DeAngelo Yancey Purdue #1 32 546 7.8 18.2% 30% 78.9
Deon Long Maryland #5 32 489 8.9 13.9% 36% 68.0
Kenny Bell Nebraska #2 52 577 6.6 24.5% 34% 68.0

Maryland has lots of receivers. Northwestern's Joneses were pretty productive, and could be more so in a Trevor Siemian offense. The tight ends:

Tight Ends Team Tgt Rec Yds YPT Tgt Rt 1st Dn% RYPR
Tyler Kroft Rutgers #1 43 573 8.3 16.8% 45% 72.1
Jeff Heuerman Ohio State #4 26 466 12.9 10.3% 44% 62.6
Maxx Williams Minnesota #2 25 417 10.4 15.7% 50% 57.1
Dan Vitale Northwestern #3 34 382 6.7 15.7% 32% 56.1
Justin Sinz Purdue #2 41 340 6.2 14.3% 36% 49.1
Jesse James Penn State #3 25 333 8.3 10.2% 33% 39.0
Jake Butt Michigan #4 20 235 8.7 7.3% 48% 35.7

Remind me to draft Heuerman in the draft-o-snark.

Hokepoints: Removing Sacks

Hokepoints: Removing Sacks

Submitted by Seth on April 15th, 2014 at 10:57 AM

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This hurt. [Fuller]

Longtime readers will know the MGoBlog policy on sacking: sacks and sack yardage should be counted as passing, because they are pass plays, not rushing, as the NCAA and thus everybody else is wont to do. Counting sacks as passing leads to a better understanding of success and where yards come from, and prevents problems like the computer in the NCAA videogames passing every play because the sacks that generates keep making the rushing numbers look progressively more awful.

For the Hail to the Victors preview books (kickstarter coming soon) each year we put these "At-a-Glance" boxes into the opponent previews, complete with offensive and defensive stats that we've adjusted for this. Having done the calculations for that, I thought I'd share them with you.

First, the difference it makes to passing stats:

2013 Passing Unadjusted Sack-Adjusted
Team Pass Att Pass Yds YPA Rk Sacks Sack Yds YPA Rk
Indiana 470 3680 7.83 2nd 18 121 7.29 1st
Ohio State 368 2846 7.73 3rd 22 135 6.95 2nd
Penn State 409 3110 7.60 4th 22 135 6.90 3rd
Michigan 395 3221 8.15 1st 36 270 6.85 4th
Wisconsin 355 2562 7.22 6th 16 94 6.65 5th
Illinois 455 3452 7.59 5th 30 231 6.64 6th
Iowa 375 2562 6.83 10th 15 61 6.41 7th
Michigan State 430 2964 6.89 9th 17 127 6.35 8th
Nebraska 378 2557 6.76 11th 17 140 6.12 9th
Northwestern 382 2726 7.14 8th 36 198 6.05 10th
Minnesota 267 1925 7.21 7th 27 170 5.97 11th
Purdue 426 2590 6.08 12th 38 265 5.01 12th

By counting sacks as passing Michigan drops from 8.15 yards per attempt (good for the best passing team in the conference last year) to a more realistic 6.85 YPA, dropping them to fourth. Minnesota's passing game dropped from middling to awful, Iowa's climbed from the bottom to the middle.

And the difference to running stats:

2013 Rushing Unadjusted Sack-Adjusted
Team Rushes Rush Yds YPC Rk Sacks Sack Yds YPA Rk
Ohio State 635 4321 6.80 1st 22 135 7.27 1st
Wisconsin 557 3689 6.62 2nd 16 94 6.99 2nd
Indiana 458 2422 5.29 3rd 18 121 5.78 3rd
Nebraska 584 2804 4.80 4th 17 140 5.19 4th
Illinois 411 1668 4.06 10th 30 231 4.98 5th
Minnesota 586 2538 4.33 5th 27 170 4.84 6th
Northwestern 507 2069 4.08 9th 36 198 4.81 7th
Penn State 501 2088 4.17 8th 22 135 4.64 8th
Michigan State 569 2433 4.28 6th 17 127 4.64 9th
Iowa 556 2338 4.21 7th 15 61 4.43 10th
Michigan 498 1634 3.28 11th 36 270 4.12 11th
Purdue 319 805 2.52 12th 38 265 3.81 12th

Michigan's awful running game is still awful, but it no longer looks like the Scheelhaase option-running game was a disaster. Ohio State's 7.27 YPC isn't just first among the conference; OSU and Wisconsin were the #1 and #2 rushing offenses in the country. Michigan: 115th out of 125 teams.

This isn't perfect since quarterback scrambles still can't be pulled out of rushing stats, but that's not so big of a deal considering a running QB should be contributing to your rushing success.

[Jump for Devin Garder's passing season and profiles of next year's opponents]

Upon Further Review 2012: Defense vs Northwestern

Upon Further Review 2012: Defense vs Northwestern

Submitted by Brian on November 14th, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Formation notes: We've already talked about Michigan's 3-3-5 at the end of the game, which was really blue for some reason:

f-3-3-5nickel

filmed in post-apocalyptic-Denzel-Washington-vehicle-o-vision

The rest of it was as per usual. Michigan goes with an even front against spread packages and flares the LBs out to deal. This results in things like this…

5-man-box

…and is a declaration of immense faith in the DTs. Here's Ryan over the slot again:

f-pistol-fb-offset

Michigan used some super wide splits once, when they were sick of getting edged by the option:

f-4-3-spread

This was a FB dive that looked dangerous before Pipkins spatted the ballcarrier for two yards.

Finally, here's something. What? I'm not sure. THANKS DIRECTOR GUY

dumbass-director

I swear these guys who come in and think they're Football Tarantino.

Substitution notes: Secondary as it always is. The front seven saw the same rotation they have in the last couple games, with CGordon/Bolden/Ross backing up Ryan/Demens/Morgan at LB and Heitzman/Black/Pipkins/Clark backing up Roh/Campbell/Washington/Beyer. Heitzman's increased PT continued; Bolden got relatively few snaps. Ross got more, including the last drive, but maybe not as many as I expected he did going in.

[AFTER THE JUMP: getting gashed, responding, Kovacs in your grill]