tommy rees

9/16/2023 – Michigan 31, Bowling Green 6 – 3-0

Somewhere in the Michigan fandom there is a person holding a monkey's paw with two curled fingers who said at some point in the last week "I wish Michigan could run the ball like they did last year." I want to be very clear this was NOT me. I did NOT hold a monkey's paw and ask for something more interesting to write about. I was perfectly content to write another column about JJ McCarthy surgically dismembering another overmatched secondary. If circumstances required I would have done so fifteen straight times.

No, our manhunt must look elsewhere. The perpetrator is now on the lam, evading anything vaguely resembling a block M. This is a problem, because you can go to the middle of Tajikistan and the local goatherd will be mechanical engineering class of '82. The paw possessor's life is now one of furtive escapes and elaborate wigs, at least until 1) they put the paw down and walk away or 2) JJ McCarthy recovers from the worst game of his career, eviscerates Rutgers, and everyone immediately forgets about this game against… Opponent. Yes, probably Opponent. 

If you're reading this, oh Michigan fan in possession of a dire artifact, at least you can take some solace in the fact that your Sparty brother-in-law briefly stole it and said "I wish Mark Dantonio was back on the sideline." Please mail the dire artifact to Urban Meyer posthaste. Just send it to any Hooters in Ohio. Meyer will turn up eventually.

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So anyway, yes: JJ McCarthy threw three interceptions against Bowling Green and also missed a wide open Tyler Morris, bringing and end to his bravura start to the season with a thudding crisis. In times like these it can be useful to look at some stats, as a sanity check. Our pets' heads are falling off, but on a down-to-down basis, eh, it was fine:

Did We Really Get Beat That Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 3 pic.twitter.com/6na3EYkrnI

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 18, 2023

While I don't think success rates are always the best lens via which to evaluate a football game—see last year's OSU game—when you're trying to figure out how alarmed you should be after an indifferent performance in nonconference bodybag game #3 they provide a good baseline. And the baseline is more or less what you'd expect.

The only reason this game ended up like it did is because of the interceptions and a fumble by a fullback on a kickoff return. If that sounds like Ryan Day saying "it was just five plays," there's a difference. The infamous Five Plays were a natural consequence of the way Ohio State was playing Michigan. It is an established football thing that if you are playing hyper aggressive you are vulnerable to big plays. They're literally called "safeties."

The turnovers in this game are not—at least not yet—anything similar. We have an entire season of data on McCarthy in which his turnover worthy play rate is about 3%, in line with guys like Caleb Williams. We have shift our priors some after this game, but in all likelihood this is not the vanguard of a sudden regression. McCarthy's going to show up against Rutgers on Saturday, put up nice numbers en route to a comfortable win because this time Michigan's going to take the 3-0 Cable Subscribers somewhat seriously.

Yeah. That's happening. I'm not nervous and you're not nervous. Yeah. But if you see someone looking furtive, tackle them for me, would you? We cannot be sure the paw has left us until Urban Meyer is on the Spartan Stadium sideline yelling at 14 scholarship players and a frisbee dog.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

different [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Kris Jenkins. Interception, near touchdown, rescued second half from potential sphincter time. Also had a TFL, and provided his usual diet of obliterated OL that made it easy for his teammates to clean up.

#2 Blake Corum. Crested 100 yards on just 12 carries and looked a lot more like 2022 Blake Corum than he had in the first two games.

#3 Junior Colson. Not a lot statistically—seven tackles and no other box score events—but this was a game where rallying to tackle on the outside after a dink was pretty much the whole deal and Colson showed why NFL types are interested.

Honorable mention: Cornelius Johnson bailed McCarthy out on a questionable flea-flicker throw; Roman Wilson is constantly open; AJ Barner had another good day as a blocker. Mike Sainristil had a sack when he danced around a running back and would have had a PBU but for bloody fate. Cam Goode had a sack(!); Jaylen Harrell had a strip sack.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

16: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV)
13: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU)
7: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV), Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
5: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV), 
3: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU)
2: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU), Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU), Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Mike Barrett (HM UNLV), AJ Barner (HM BGSU), Mike Sainristil (HM BGSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Kris Jenkins turns the second half from an annoying and terrifying "they couldn't… could they" into a merely annoying "they cannot but we're playing like butt" by intercepting a screen pass and nearly scoring; Michigan would punch it in to make it 21-6 and more or less end the competitive portion of the game.

Honorable mention: Corum bursts off right tackle for a 54 yarder on Michigan's first snap; JJ lays in a touchdown to Wilson;

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Max Bredeson's fumble on the kickoff announces that it's One Of Those Games.

Honorable mention: McCarthy pick 1, McCarthy pick 2, McCarthy pick 3. McCarthy overthrows Morris for a sure TD.

Previously: Krushed By Stauskas (Illinois 2014), Introducing #ChaosTeam (Indiana 2009), Revenge is Terrifying (Colorado 1996), Four Games In September I (Boston College 1991), Four Games In September II (Boston College 1994), Four Games In September III (Boston College 1995), Four Games In September IV (Boston College 1996), Pac Ten After Dark Parts One and Two (UCLA 1989), Harbaugh's Grand Return Parts One and Two (Notre Dame 1985), Deceptive Speed Parts One and Two (Purdue 1999)

Week One: 1993 Washington Part One, Part Two, 2002 Washington Twitch stream

This Game: Condensed game, WH highlights, box score, MGoPreview, Denard After Dentist, Offense UFR, Defense UFR, a Notre Dame fan's live blog

Lineup Cards! Brought to you by Seth. Click the images to embiggen.

Michigan offense vs. Notre Dame defense:

Michigan defense vs. Notre Dame offense:

Michigan-Notre Dame is a sight to behold.

Yes, the rivalry has lost its national luster. The Irish's season-opening loss to USF ensures this is the third time in five games both teams enter the contest unranked; that hadn't happened in the history of the rivalry until 2007. Notre Dame is in year two under Brian Kelly after the program bottomed out under Charlie Weis. Michigan is in year one under Brady Hoke (and offensive coordinator Al Borges) after Rich Rodriguez could only field half of a good team.

The rivalry itself is still healthy, however. Despite being, well, not very good, the Wolverines have taken the last two games in the series, both last-minute triumphs featuring star-turning performances by Michigan quarterbacks—Tate Forcier in 2009 and Denard Robinson in 2010. Meanwhile, the two teams are playing in Michigan Stadium's first-ever night game.

As per usual with this game, nobody has a clue what to expect. Notre Dame turned the ball over five times in its season opener but only lost by three points. Michigan looked good against an overmatched Western Michigan squad but didn't even complete three quarters before the game was called due to lightning. How little did we know? This was in Brian's preview:

The only thing we can take from the USF game is that Notre Dame has trouble defending bubble screens. The Bulls consistently racked up 5-10 yards despite the wholesale suck of Daniels. Chalk up some free yards on the outside.

Chalk is easily erased, thankfully.

As you'd expect from a game with a name—Under The Lights—there's a lot of pregame fanfare. Michigan unveils the Legends Jersey program by honoring Desmond Howard.

[After THE JUMP: #FreeDenard]

[Bryan Fuller]

The extra slot. Max Bielfeldt could return next year if Michigan was so inclined. It does not sound like they are rushing to make this happen, though. Bielfeldt:

"I don't even know," the 6-foot-8, 240-pound forward said. "I've just been looking to see what else is out there. If this (situation did come up), I knew I'd have to take it for what it is. If I end up making a decision here in the next week or so and nothing pops up Michigan-wise, then I'll move on.

"(I haven't talked with Beilein about it) since the scholarship opened up."

It might be hard to kiss and make up here with Bielfeldt fielding serious interest from multiple Big 12 schools.

Harbaugh profilin'. Bruce Feldman on the man in khaki:

Most coaches will say they are much better at their jobs than they were a decade ago thanks to experience, but Harbaugh isn't most coaches. "I don't know that I am (a better coach)," he said. "Even though you've proved something before, that's the very nature of football playing or coaching. You could have proved something 1,000 times before. You could prove it again, but now that's all that matters.

"It's irrelevant no matter how many times you prove something. This is the only time that matters."

Well worth a read.

That this is a hard decision is a bad thing. Dylan Larkin is playing at the World Championships for the USA, an impressive accomplishment for any college player. He is still considering signing with the Wings. That would be far from unprecedented, except for the fact that his pro team doesn't seem to be pressing for it at all:

Should Larkin sign with Detroit, he would most likely spend the season in the AHL with Grand Rapids, a team that has consistently been successful recently under the stewardship of coach Jeff Blashill. …

From what I’ve been told, the Red Wings would be happy with Larkin’s decision either way. If he returns to Michigan, he gets to play that big role on a young team (the team had a dearth of juniors this season, so there will only be a handful of seniors next year) and he can learn from mistakes now rather than in a couple years when he’s in the NHL.

If Larkin signs when the Wings are saying "you will play in the AHL"—something they no doubt mean given the guys they've left in Grand Rapids well after they've ripened—that is a devastating commentary on the current state of the program.

Unfortunately, I don't think I would be at all surprised by that. Mike Spath is without question the most plugged-in hockey reporter Michigan has, and when Andrew Copp left he talked to various people in the program and came back with this:

A motivation for Andrew Copp to leave? Apparently his dad didn't like that Copp wasn't the leading scorer the past two seasons and blamed this on Michigan's failure to develop him to be the first-line center he was destined to be.

This is what society has become. Every parent thinks their kid is the next Crosby. Winnipeg apparently told the family he could one day lead their team in points. I like Andrew a lot but that is a crock.

There is only one person who would say this to Spath: Red Berenson. Spath probably should have kept that one under his hat, because it drew a response from Copp's father in which he made it clear that assertions about his character were way off base. A small portion:

Michael it is disappointing that as you have gotten to know Andrew over the last 3 years you should have a gut feeling about how he is as a person. Much has been made about it in the press and by the coaches over the years. Andrew is a very mature young man with character, conviction, and morals. I can tell you that Andrew made the decision to leave completely on his own. We do not parent like micro-managers, we have always raised our two boys to be independent and we support the decisions that they do make. Andrew consulted with our family during the process but never once asked our opinion on what he should do with his life nor did we give it, that is HIS decision. To be honest I don’t know what I would have said, I would have loved to see him play his senior year, see him a couple times a week and every Sunday for family dinner. As a parent you hope you provide your kids with the life skills to make difficult decisions and I am proud of how Andrew has navigated this process.

Red has always been lovably cantankerous about his players leaving before their time. This goes several steps beyond that. Copp was not mentioned at the post-season banquet. When bitterness gets that prominent it starts to seem like a reason for the team's recent underperformance.

Red is going to be back next year, and then he is likely to retire. I'm not particularly optimistic about that final year. That Copp would leave probably doesn't say much about Copp.

For Larkin's part, here's Larkin:

"Not 100 percent," Larkin told The Windsor Star when asked if he's made a decision. "I'm still in between and weighing the options. I wanted to wait until after the tournament to make a decision.

"I'll probably take some time. I mean, I'm not in a rush. The seasons are over. There's really no rush. I really feel like there's not a wrong choice or a bad option. Either way I'm still going to be playing hockey and doing what I love.

"We'll see what's best for me."

I have a bad feel. NCAA muckety-mucks are complaining about the graduate transfer rule, because obviously. They do not have great reasons to do so:

"I don't think it fits the core values of intercollegiate athletics," said Sun Belt Conference commissioner Karl Benson.

When asked for specifics on the conflict with core values, Benson said, "It just doesn't feel right."

The core values of intercollegiate athletics are what exactly? If it's about getting an education, these players have already acquired bachelors' degrees. If it's about a level playing field, that ship sailed, sunk, and turned into barnacles a long time ago. If it's about catering to coaches' whims… we should probably have more timeouts in basketball.

Pat Forde says that if the NCAA is actually concerned about their core values they'd look at the scourge of recruits reclassifying. It's not clear that such a thing is at all common—most kids who reclassify are in fact forgoing a prep year, not accelerating. And the ones who do always have the option of, like, not doing so. It's hard to see what the harm is there. Forde's attempt to conjure one is unconvincing:

A senior year of high school is among the priceless commodities in life. I hope giving that away in part because some coach needs you now is a good decision for Thornton. It certainly seems to be one more example of the coach controlling the athlete more than vice versa.

High school is nice and all but if you told me I could go to prom or start at point guard for Duke I think I might take the latter. Thornton could still pick any school he wants as a class of 2016 player; that Duke presented him with an option he found attractive is not a problem.

Then there are the academic questions. By all accounts, Thornton is a bright young man and he may have been planning his class load with this accelerated graduation in mind. But will he be ready – early – for the classroom challenge at Duke? It's not exactly like going to UNLV.

It is. It is exactly like going to UNLV because every school has easy classes for people not interested in requirement X. I was in some at Michigan. Forde probably doesn't know that college hockey was well ahead of the curve here, with three top-ten NHL picks (Zach Werenski, Noah Hanifin, and Hobey winner Jack Eichel) arriving after accelerating their studies. It seems likely that both Werenski and Hanifin will be back at their respective schools next year, which they could only do if they were coping academically.

Increased flexibility for players is generally a good thing. Let them accelerate cake and graduate transfer cake.

Don't mind if I schadenfreude, thanks. EDSBS's ERASE THIS GAME series strikes upon the USF-Notre Dame game that caused Brian Kelly to turn into Yosemite Sam. Notre Dame's next game was this one:

If you could get in the college football hall of fame for making fanbases other than your own happy, Rees would be a holy lock.

Now when is #M00N happening EDSBS? For pants' sake.

Scouting centers. Brendan Quinn on Austin Davis and Jon Teske:

Davis: While quiet in-person, he's not shy on the floor.

Davis is aggressive with the ball, while remaining steady and methodical, refusing to rush. He knows how to work offensively on the low blocks, utilizing good hands and a soft touch. Most importantly, Davis looks to score the ball. Points to just come to him -- he shows himself well on post-ups and gets his own points.

Teske: The shot-blocking ability is abundantly apparent. Teske is a natural with instinctual patience and timing. He's does well to go up and block shots in the air instead of lunging to get shots at the point of release. That defensive prowess translates to his movements and awareness on that end of the floor. Teske seems to anticipate without guessing, and looks to make defensive plays without leaving himself susceptible to mistakes.

Interesting that MLive is getting more into the scouting/video stuff for recruits. Davis got a bump to four stars on 247, BTW. It looks like there is going to be a severe difference of opinion between the sites on him. Brian Snow has made it clear that Scout is not going to follow suit.

Etc.: Tyus Battle will visit officially tomorrow; Duke has taken a big lead in the Crystal Ball, and this one doesn't seem like guesswork. Remember when a playoff was going to kill the bowls? Speaking of coach catering. On 2016 combo guard Bruce Brown.