Draftageddon 2018: Quarterbacks and Running Backs

Draftageddon 2018: Quarterbacks and Running Backs

Submitted by Seth on July 18th, 2018 at 2:00 PM

The horses will ride once more

Seth: WHO'S UP FOR SOME DRAFTAGEDDON?

BiSB: THE PEOPLE DEMAND IT

Brian: We only have seven weeks until the season so it's got to be wall to wall.

Ace: Let the torches light the way. Try to avoid the pitchforks.

Seth: So, uh, maybe we just do an All Big Ten thing this year? I know the people won't like it.

Ace: BLASPHEMY

BiSB: Like, we jointly draft together? The hell good would that do?

Seth: Brian would finally win?

BiSB: /waves tiny "Venric Mark" flag

Brian: Kemoko Turay is out of the league so what's the point of even Draftageddoning

Ace: It’s 2018, most things are terrible, let’s do this like normal people, I guess.

QUARTERBAAAACK

image
The one. [Patrick Barron]

Seth: Duh.

Ace: So, uh, yeah, it’s Trace McSorley.

Brian: Is it though?

Seth: He is. Penn State.

BiSB: Yes.

Brian: Okay but what happens with Moorhead gone and Barkley gone and surely at some point he's not going to hit 95% of balls downfield?

Ace: We said that when Godwin left.

Brian: It could happen this time!

Ace: Some of us more than others sorry I took him in ’geddon last year. He’s a slightly poor man’s version of Baker Mayfield and that’ll do in this conference.

Brian: Fine.

Seth: There's always a momentum that carries over. McSorley can still run the same RPO offense this year that negates his bad pass protection and keeps things open.

Ace: I mean, who’s next? Are we unbroken enough to fully jump on the Shea train?

[After THE JUMP: Lewerke for Heisman, Higdon vs Weber]

Unverified Voracity Bangs Nonexistent Pads

Unverified Voracity Bangs Nonexistent Pads

Submitted by Brian on May 16th, 2018 at 3:57 PM

I'd probably ask for this at my wedding, too. It just makes sense.

FIRED UP NOW LET'S HAVE A 45 MINUTE SPEECH FROM THE FATHER OF THE BRIDE

You might have to watch the Nets? Jonathan Givony's post-lottery mock draft includes one Moe Wagner at #29:

The Nets don't have much in the way of shooting in the frontcourt and aren't really committed to any 4s or 5s long term besides promising rookie Jarrett Allen and the dead-weight contract of Timofey Mozgov.

Wagner brings floor spacing and a high-energy style of play. He was one of the breakout players of March, leading Michigan to a Big Ten title and a surprise run to the NCAA championship game.

The Raptors have traded that pick to the Nets, so that would mean Caris Levert, Nik Stauskas, and Wagner were all… uh… Nets. Since mock drafts are deadly accurate, NY-based Michigan grads should buy their season tickets now.

This is not a layup-focused point guard. IA PG DJ Carton's latest highlight video is mostly nasty contested dunks.

Michigan hasn't had a PG who dunked regularly since… Darius Morris? Except he couldn't really get to the rim?

Who needs long twos? Bart Torvik tracks a remarkable drop in non-rim twos over just a few years:

I preferred our previous ignorance about Crisler's scorer, because back in those innocent days I could point out that Michigan's defensive renassaince was in no small part because they were elite at forcing non-rim twos. Now I can only suspect that. Now I know that some part of that is a home scorer who thinks only uncontested dunks or layups are "at the rim."

Well, yeah. A slice of life from All Or Nothing:

One of the more telling sequences from Amazon’s behind-the-scenes look at Michigan’s 2017 season came during the Wolverines’ 42–13 loss at Penn State. After another failed drive, Michigan quarterback John O’Korn came to the sideline. “No blocking,” O’Korn told Harbaugh. “There’s no blocking.”

Andy Staples inserts that into a piece about Shea Patterson's attempt to save Michigan's offense. I do have an issue with Staples citing raw yards per carry numbers from Michigan's less successful outings on the ground:

Last season, they averaged 2.6 yards a carry against Michigan State, 2.5 yards a carry against Penn State, 1.5 yards a carry against Wisconsin, 2.8 yards a carry against Ohio State and 2.2 yards a carry against South Carolina. That places even more pressure on the quarterback, figuratively (because he’s expected to do it all) and literally (because blocking poorly leads to large humans in the quarterback’s face and the lack of a run game means defenses can dedicate more bodies to covering potential targets).

Once you move sacks to the correct bin, Michigan averaged 3.9, 4.3, 2.2, 4.6, and 2.9 YPC in those games, which is not good but is a considerably more accurate evaluation than sack-included numbers for the #117 pass pro team in the country.

And Staples gets the causation backwards in his final hypothetical. To pick one example from many, here's this site's take after Penn State:

Another thing to note on this one is the safety who eventually tackled Evans: he is rotated back by the motion and spends a second or two reading the play out before barreling downfield. That makes for a good gain instead of good blocks and three yards. The difference between that nine yard gain and this three yard one is evident:

PSU safety to top of screen

PSU also got a DT out there on a stunt, but that's just a thing that happened. It's not a trend. The trend is the safeties firing at Michigan's ground game with impunity. PSU's safety froze on the first one because he didn't know what he was looking at. Once he saw the play once he was able to fire because nobody cares about Michigan's passing game. That's a version of what happened to early Rodriguez offenses where the new stuff would work for a bit and then when the defense had seen it they curled up and died, because they could only do one thing.

Michigan's lack of a passing game stifled their run game, not vice versa. Patterson's worst case scenario is a thousand times better than what Michigan got from the spot a year ago. It'll all go to hell if Michigan can't pass protect better, but Patterson really does solve a swath of Michigan's issues just by being a proven P5 quarteback.

Speaking of. If you can stomach it, James Light highlighted a couple of Michigan's many, many missed opportnities against Ohio State:

Patterson certainly would have won that game, for one.

Can anyone catch up? A Jalen Wilson post-visit interview($) is mostly unrevealing, but he does omit UCLA as a contender and say he's going to commit before his school year starts.  Wilson's visit generated a big Michigan run on the crystal ball, with both Steve Lorenz and Josh Henschke joining various others.

Wilson has as-of-yet unscheduled visits he wants to take to Baylor, Marquette, Oklahoma State, and Kansas. Hopefully those remain vague.

Pitino flips! In the media! The Washington Post has an extensive story on new IU recruit Romeo Langford's college decision featuring one Rick Pitino:

In January 2017, Pitino said, two Adidas officials met with him to discuss their efforts to keep Nike and Under Armour from landing Langford, whom Pitino was recruiting. Pitino’s account was supported by text messages he shared with The Washington Post for a previous story.

“The way they phrased it, it was [whichever shoe company] was going to pay the dad’s AAU program the most money, gets it,” Pitino said in a recent phone interview. A few days later, Adidas’s league added a new team: Twenty Two Vision, featuring Romeo Langford on the court and Tim Langford as team director. Shoe company sponsorships can reach $100,000 to $150,000, and team directors who limit expenses can pay themselves salaries from those amounts.

“That’s the way that world works,” Pitino said. “Which is completely legal, by the way.”

This space is in full heighten the contradictions mode about college basketball and welcomes any and all revelations about how ineffectual the NCAA's attempts to prevent money from flowing to folks with marketable skills are. A pissed-off Rick Pitino napalming everyone he can in the Washington Post is a boon for everyone.

Etc.: A Villanova rematch looms.

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Alabama

Submitted by Brian on May 10th, 2018 at 1:15 PM

37907506721_576725da5c_z

[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: This went a little less well than the Vandy game. It was a blowout from the drop and finished 66-3. FWIW, Bama was the #5 pass defense last year and was #29 in adjusted sack rate. Neither of those numbers do this outing justice.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: lol nope

Oh, there is one thing of note: Ole Miss ran a lot of max pro even on things like all slants, so if those were covered Patterson did not have checkdown options. Also some of their plays didn't look like passing concepts so much as presnap read sorts of plays where you've got a screen on one side but can decide to hand off or take a shot at a downfield fade. On these plays Patterson was locked into one guy in a route if he chose the fade, even if that fade got wrecked by a DB.

As a result of these two tendencies, Patterson ended up throwing into tight coverage a ton. Only rarely was this a bad decision; most of the time he either literally had no choice or the guy he was throwing at was the least bad option.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass TE flare screen Knox 5
I have nothing QB related to say about this. (CA, 3, screen)
M18 3 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Everyone jammed into the boundary again as Miss wants that space for their solo WR. Fake flare screen, fake handoff, none of this impacts the decision here to go solo backside. Presnap read with the flare option? I don’t know. Post-snap result is that there's one guy in a route and Patterson has to throw it. Metcalf gets destroyed by the CB and Patterson’s accurate-seeming fade ends up yards too long because of the CB jam. (not charted, 0, protection 1/1)
M15 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
7 man slide protection as OM tries to go deep; slightly delayed blitz gets through clean and Patterson has to bug out before it seems like any of his routes develop. He tosses it away as he gets to the sideline. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M15 3 8 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 Dime split 5 Pass Comeback Metcalf Inc
Time for one quick read and then RT gets run over so another bug out. Patterson finds Metcalf for a first down but Metcalf leaps to catch a ball that hits him in the chest and doesn’t get a foot down on a sideline catch he should really make. (CA+, 2, protection ½)
M24 1 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Dime even 4 Run QB draw Patterson 6
Draw ends up wide open as the closest thing to a LB in the box here is a safety at ten yards. Patterson again slides down before contact when he could probably get the first down here if he’s more aggressive. RPS +1.
M30 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Lodge Inc
LB shows blitz and comes, getting through untouched up the gut. Patterson chucks up a fade in response. That fade is too far inside but the DB is focused on the WR and the ball hits the turf harmlessly. PR? IN? MA? I punt. (MA, 0, protection 0/2)
M30 3 4 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Lodge INT
Multiple issues here as Patterson doesn’t see that his slot WR is much more open here than the outside guy, Lodge. Lodge then gets beat up on the route by the CB a bit and Patterson wings the pass a yard wide. CB deflects and then INTs; Lodge thinks it’s incomplete and stops, TD results. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 ? 7 Pass Skinny post Metcalf 17
Miss part of this play, come back with PA fake and Patterson setting up. Metcalf breaks inside of the DB and runs a skinny post; Patterson throws a lovely soft toss directly to his hands that arcs over the DB for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O45 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Stop and go Lodge Inc
Delayed release from Lodge; he gets inside of the CB and jets past him. S to this side busts, probably because of the delayed release, and Patterson has a wide open guy for a 45 yard TD… who he misses. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O45 3 5 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A 0
Another untouched rusher up the gut. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Metcalf 25
Quick hitch turns into a big gain because of a missed tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
50 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Improv Lodge 35
Orbit motion for Brown from the slot discombobulates Bama D, with the FS running to cover Brown on a flare route. Nobody replaces him. Patterson has time to see that and hit the should-be-open post route but hesitates, and then an unblocked edge rusher has him in his sights. Patterson breaks the pocket and finds a receiver for a deep gain… the same guy he should have thrown it to in the first place. (CA+, 3, protection ½, RPS +2)
O15 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 6
Another dink throw that the WR turns into something. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O9 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3 stack 7 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Similar to the INT except Brown is very not open and the throw is on target. CB wins route and gets a PBU. Nobody is open so this was the best option despite the low probability of success. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O14 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop and go RB -5
RB out of the backfield, flare screen pump fake and then Patterson wants to hit the one dude in a route over the top. He’s blanketed. Patterson throws the flare screen now, way too late for anything but doom. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -3)
O9 3 14 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Dig Jefferson 10
Solid protection for a while until a big guy gets through on a stunt; Patterson can still hang in the pocket and step into a dart across the middle for Jefferson, who is a few yards short. Down 21-0, OM kicks a field goal. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 6
Edge is open as the playside DE sucks inside too far. LB does a good job to beat a block and scrape out to help cut it down. Patterson’s part in this is to run reasonably fast and get cut down by the LB from behind. RPS +1.
M32 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Slant Lodge Inc (Pen)
Patterson again gets an unblocked edge rusher; he stands in and fires an accurate ball to Lodge, who has the CB draped all over him. Dude gets a fairly iffy PI, but the throw was the only place it could be and was made with a dude bearing down on Patterson. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Seven man protection against a four man rush; one very covered short route and two deep guys who looks bracketed. Patterson should probably LIVE MAS at this point down 28-3 and take a shot but it’s more prudent to bail out when the pressure comes, which is way too early, and then throw it away. (TA, 0, protection ½
O39 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
Another completely unblocked guy off the edge as nobody bothers to block the backside DE on a PA. Ole Miss is again using this fake screen action that Bama isn’t falling for and they absolutely do not have the blocking for so there’s again one guy in a realistic route, the backside fade dude. CB is over the top of this and the ball is way long and OOB. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
O39 3 6 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
This time two guys come scot free as OM tries to set up a screen and Bama engulfs the back in the backfield. Nowhere to go but down. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, RPS -2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M13 1 20 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -2
Not as bad as some other pressure events as pocket mostly holds, but Patterson has happy feet by now. He tries to run up in the pocket and gets tripped up by his own man, who got driven back in the pocket. (TA, 0, protection ½)
M11 2 22 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under 7 Pass Sack N/A -1
PA, trying to go deep, DT gets around his man to flush Patterson. A second guy is coming from the outside so Patterson can’t step and fire; a third contains and #2 sacks. Patterson’s got the ball out like the proverbial loaf of bread(?) and fumbles(-3). (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M12 3 21 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Flare screen RB 3
Meh (CA, 3, screen)
M37 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB 4
More jogging off the line by the OM WRs; free rusher and Patterson just dumps it to the RB for a few. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
M41 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 5.5 Pass In Metcalf Inc
Metcalf gets zero separation and this is going to be a dink at best; Patterson throws it well behind his guy and it gets PBU’d. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M41 3 6 Shotgun empty 1 1 3 Okie one 7 Pass Sack N/A -11
Yet another unblocked guy right up the gut. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M16 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -6
PA, unblocked guy unthreatened by run, cover-2 corner on the quick out, Patterson hesitates and is sacked. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -2)
M10 3 16 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Flare RB Inc
DE instantly through the line, Patterson checks down and misses but really at this point it’s 38-3 and he’s about to get killed on every snap. (MA, 1, protection 0/2)
M28 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even 7 Pass PA TE wheel Knox 23
Virtually unblocked guy up the gut, VUGUG. Patterson drifts away from him to buy time and the TE actually gets open as he sells an out and then breaks upfield. Patterson puts it right on him. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O35 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Time! Patterson actually has a lot of it here. I can’t see if anyone’s open. One guy on a fade really isn’t. Patterson gets pressure eventually, rolls, keeps looking, and finally dumps it. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O35 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass In Metcalf 4
Patterson checks down on third and long because a three man rush gets through clean and he can’t let it develop. Immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O31 3 5 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Jefferson Inc
Patterson probably bugs out too early here and just needs a little patience to let it develop, but how could you have patience at this point? He breaks forward, gets a spy in his face, and misses Jefferson at the sticks on a flick because he’s getting tackled as he throws it. (BA, 0, protection 2/2)
O32 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass In Metcalf Inc
It’s 52-3 so grain of salt on decisions here as Patterson tries not to get killed. FWIW, this is another zero-good-options throw; he throws an in to a FR WR who’s lost the route and DB PBUs. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O32 3 12 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 DIme even 5 Pass Hitch Brown Inc
Reasonably good protection; Brown open a few yards short of the sticks as Bama is playing soft; good throw, dropped. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O32 4 12 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3 stack 6 Pass Improv N/A INT
VUGUG. This time RG ole blocks the NT. Patterson drifts back and just chucks it in the direction of a guy; S undercuts for the INT. This isn’t even a bad decision given the situation. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
M23 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Fade Lodge 37
Three man rush by Bama’s second unit just gives Patterson enough time to chuck a fade down the sideline that is very well covered and dead on the money; Lodge goes up to make a tough catch. (DO, 2, protection ½)
O44 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over 7 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
VUGUG. Patterson does a good job to avoid the guy and finds his RB wide open on the sideline but wings it over his head. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
O44 3 14 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Out Jefferson 4
Decent protection; at this point whatevs. Ball is high and forces a good catch. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)

Probably a lot of useful information from this game against one of the nation's top defenses, right?

nooooooooope

Why not?

Imagine last year's Michigan OL playing Bama.

No.

Fair enough. Since we're not imagining things, here's Patterson's night in a nutshell:

During one stretch Patterson was sacked on five of eight dropbacks. If you're not a chart-reader, about halfway through the game (but most of the way through the chart since the 4th was irrelevant) I got frustrated by typing the same thing about a Virtually Unblocked Guy Up the Gut and started typing VUGUG when that happened.

This was a debacle from the start, out of hand by the end of the first quarter, and very little of it had anything to do with Patterson. He did show some happy feet and miss some throws after moving around in the pocket, but the environment was such that it would have been a shock if he did not.

But enough about Michigan's pass protection.

Yes, the flashbacks to various Michigan QBs laying crumpled under a pile of bodies were persistent and severe here. For the record, I had Ole Miss's pass protection at 22/55, probably a UFR record low 40%, and on many Ole Miss dorfs I thought about a third protection negative because the pressure was coming directly up the middle of the field.

This wasn't a guy coming around the edge and sacking the QB after he maybe had time to get the ball out. This was someone running inside the tackle, usually untouched. Patterson frequently had to start moving before he'd even set up to throw.

Did this exercise produce anything at all?

One hell of a Poor Damn Shea Patterson passing chart, for one:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Alabama   2 15(3)+++     8   3   1 3 3 1   64% -
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

These pressure-heavy games become hard to chart as I try to suss out what is a reasonable grade for any particular throw when you have the dread certainty someone's about to take your head off. FWIW, one interception—a fourth and twelve heave after VUGUG—got marked a "marginal" throw because the right thing to do was fling the ball in the general direction of one of your guys. The other one could have been either an IN or a BR; I went with the more judgy BR. This is bad but it's not throwing it to a linebacker's chest:

Given the situation, Patterson's part in this debacle is at worst neutral for Michigan's prospects. And it might be positive? He was put in a number of no-win scenarios, like this incomplete slant on Ole Miss's best drive.

image

That's destined for a PBU, but all options are bad here. It's a seven man protection with only three guys in the route. The slot's covered, the solo WR to the bottom of the screen is getting jammed to oblivion, and the targeted Van Jefferson has lost his route badly. At least this time Patterson wasn't running for his life.

Patterson duly threw these passes even if it was clear the WR—frequently for some reason true freshman DK Metcalf—was getting his face pressed off.

He had no other choice unless being buried under 500 pounds of Bama lineman counts. Metcalf in particular had a rough game, unable to get off the line of scrimmage with any consistency and poor when given an opportunity to catch a ball.

For Patterson to (mostly) maintain his accuracy and not do anything truly egregious is impressive. Probably the worst thing he did was miss Lodge when he busted open for a 45-yard TD, and he did pepper in a couple pretty throws:

And while he had this without rolling out, this escapability and ability to put the ball on the money 30 yards downfield while on the move is impressive:

Lord knows Michigan's going to need that next year.

So… punt?

More or less. Patterson had very few opportunities to do anything and was being chased all night. I don't think any QB could have been effective given the chaos around him; this is no more meaningful than Patterson torching UT-Martin.

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Vanderbilt

Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Vanderbilt

Submitted by Brian on May 7th, 2018 at 1:30 PM

23970305497_4ba12745be_z

[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: Patterson had five games against P5 competition before getting knocked out for the year after the LSU game. Two were grim hammerings at the hands of LSU and Alabama where he threw 5 INTs against zero touchdowns and failed to hit 50% completions. Games against Cal, Auburn, and Vandy were much better. This is the Vandy game, chosen first because there's a handy Shea-only reel on the Youtubes.

Now, you hear "Vandy" and expect the Keystone Kops but they were a respectable-ish 5-7 last year and were 17th nationally in pass D S&P+. Their sack rate was almost exactly average, which helped a lot. Initial reviews of the Bama and LSU indicate that the Ole Miss OL fell apart against top-end rushers and Patterson spent a lot of time running for his life.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: The Rebels ran a standard modern passing spread reminiscent of Penn State minus Saquon Barkley. All plays are from the gun; most are three-wide with a flex TE off the line of scrimmage or in the slot.

Their receiving core was stacked back to front, with DK Metcalf, DaMarkus Lodge, Van Jefferson, and AJ Brown all getting 50+ targets. Brown, a potential first round pick next year, is the shortest of those guys at 6'1", 225; he got put in the slot frequently in an effort to get him matched up against nickel corners and safeties.

The Ole Miss OL was also almost dead average in allowing sacks.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M28 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Pass PA hitch Metcalf 3
Quick pitch and catch, CB rallies to tackle ably. (CA, 3)
M26 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -8
LT smoked immediately. He gets a push in; Patterson can step up but has to break a tackle and gets delayed. Vandy rallies to finish. (PR, N/A)
M39 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
An attempt at a bomb on which Metcalf does get over the top of the CB but gets no separation. CB gets an arm grab in and Metcalf can only spear at it with one hand. Throw is perfect. (DO, 2, route-)
M46 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Brown 19
Good pocket, ton of time. Patterson can’t find anyone and his timer goes off; he rolls out. He points his dude to the sideline and then nails him in stride right at the line . Tough call: want him to find someone given the time but he made it work for a chunk. Results-based charting. (DO, 2)
O35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 8
(Probably) a clever counter to an Ole Miss staple as this looks like double slants to the field and Patterson pumps it; outside WR breaks deep but is covered. Backup plan is the slot converting his slant into a circle route in the vacated area. Open for a chunk. (CA, 3)
O27 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Dorf N/A Inc
Outside WR runs a go. Patterson throws a hitch. (NC, N/A)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6.5 Pass RPO slant Metcalf 58
Basic RPO on which the MLB sucks up to the run fake and an OLB who should absolutely be dropping into this sits and watches the ball. That’s a first down, and then Metcalf and some comical S play turn it into a TD. (CA, 3)
O42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Improv N/A Inc
PA and some Vandy hijinks confuse a G and get a DT through clean. DT gets tackled, holding call. Patterson bugs out. He avoids the DE, gets to the sideline, and throws it OOB. (PR, N/A)
M43 1 25 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Jefferson 2
I guess Ole Miss is expecting softer coverage? Or this is a busted screen? I don’t know. Two yard hitch, immediate tackle. This is more or less a screen. (CA, 3, screen)
M45 2 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 10
A good gain but a bit of a woof by Patterson, as the TE arc blocking from him has nobody to block since the entire front ignores Patterson. He gets forced inside by the slot LB and bursts up a seam. Patterson(-2) then slides down after ten yards when ten more beckon.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O45 3 13 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Dig Jefferson Inc
Decent pocket but Patterson has to step up as DEs get around the edge. He can, but he’s boxed in. He fires a dig route that’s debatably open; it’s batted at the LOS. Still gets to the WR but just past his hands. (BA, N/A)
M9 1 26 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Flare screen RB -5
This is dangerous, behind the RB and backwards. RB manages to spear it, and then gets blown up as a WR badly misses a block. (IN, 1, screen)
M4 2 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Well behind Jefferson and a tough out of frame catch attempt fails. (IN, 1)
M4 3 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Flare screen RB 12
Give up and punt. (CA, 3, screen)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 5-1 LB split 6 Pass PA fade Lodge Inc
Patterson misses another fade where his WR gets over the top without separation. Ball Is right at the sideline and only a yard or two off. (IN, 0)
M25 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Cross Brown 27
Blitz sees a standup DE slash inside the RT. Patterson resets outside that guy and fires an impressive crossing route that takes his WR away from the coverage and hits him right in stride. Brown breaks a tackle for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 0/2)
O33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run Zone read keeper Patterson -2
All six guys in the box attack the RB so Patterson pulls. This is a bad idea as Vandy has a clever trap on, converting from a two high look to a one high at the snap by shooting the field-side safety down. He contains, and Brown appears to be running an RPO slant so he’s not thinking about blocking. RPS -2.
O35 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass PA Post Lodge 35
Massive coverage bust is free TD. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O27 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA fade Metcalf Inc
Probably a quick-strike attempt after a TO. Ole Miss crams the boundary with players and gets one on on coverage with Metcalf barely outside a hash. He’s got a ton of room to the sideline; Patterson tries to hit him in stride as if that room doesn’t exist. He barely misses; ball deflects off Metcalf’s fingertips. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O27 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv RB 25
Patterson flushed as a blitz gets through. Poor contain allows him to get out relatively quickly, and the RB pops wide open after converting a dumpoff into something deeper. Patterson finds it and hits him in stride for a big chunk. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O4 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Goal line 7 Run Zone read keeper Patterson 4
Odd triple option-ish play as the TE runs what looks like an arc block for a second and then converts it to a flat route. CB covers it. WR to this side is blocking, though. Patterson(+1) is able to dodge as safety and impressively runs over a corner to score.
M35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 7
Vandy again appears to leave the edge open but fills with a safety. This time the arc TE cuts off a linebacker to the inside; Patterson(+1) is one on one on the edge and gives that S the Forcier with a decisive upfield cut to get a solid gain.
M48 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf 34
Another jammed boundary and one vs one in a lot of space. Metcalf loses the route pretty definitively; Patterson should be using the space to the outside—they’re running on the numbers—but instead just throws it like usual. Metcalf makes a Prothro catch to make up for it. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O18 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway Metcalf Inc
Only get a portion of this play. When we come back an OL is five yards downfield on some sort of RPO, Patterson is rolling out, an attempted double move gets crushed, and Patterson dumps it. (not charted, 0)
O30 1 10 Shotgun quad 1 1 3 Dime over 5 Pass Slant Brown 11
Fake the screen everyone runs out of quad into some routes; this time Patterson throws it a bit behind Brown because a linebacker is about to run under him; he keeps the ball away from him and turns a potentially dangerous play into a reception. (DO, 2, protection 1/1)
O19 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
All day in the pocket. Patterson can’t find anyone and dumps it down to the back, turfing a short throw. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
O19 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB draw Patterson 5
RG gets pushed back in Patterson’s lap in an uncomfortable way so he has a choice and bounces out; he’s able to beat a DE to the corner and get a few(+0.5). Weak late hit flag after.
O6 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie zero 7 Pass BSF Lodge 6
The perfect, unstoppable back shoulder fade. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
M48 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Comeback Lodge 14
23 seconds left in the half, 2 TOs, Vandy rushes three and leaves a LB in a two-yard zone. Woof. All day, Patterson throws a rope to Lodge for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O38 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Deep out Metcalf Inc
Blitz gets a guy through up the gut. Patterson backs off and throws off his back foot; the resulting soft 15 yard out is in the perfect spot but the CB has time to rally because of the velocity and can get a PBU. Pretty good throw all the same since it was either his guy or no one. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O38 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Improv N/A Inc
This is pretty weird as Patterson takes a drop after getting the snap and ends up ten yards behind the LOS. Maybe for the best as line lets a DE through untouched. Patterson has time to survey because of the drop but then has to start moving around. He tries a late sideline throw that doesn’t come off. Think you have ot take your shot here even if it’s a bad idea throw in a normal circumstance. This play starts with 9 on the clock. (BR, 0, protection 0/2)
O38 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Hail Mary N/A Inc
Hail Mary is incomplete.
O29 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slot seam Brown 29
PA and the safety turns his back to the slot receiver? And settles down on the boundary hash? No redirect from slot corner. This leaves a slot seam for Brown open and Patterson calmly nails it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M21 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 NIckel even 6 Pass Dig Brown 14
Lot of time and a clean pocket; Patterson surveys and throws a bit high but not too bad to Brown, who converted a very covered hitch into a dig route and got open. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, Brown route +)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 NIckel under 6 Pass Bubble screen Brown 8
Very very soft coverage on the outside; S can’t make a one on one play on Brown. (CA, 3, screen)
M43 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA hitch Jefferson 11
CB blitz might be telegraphed as both WR and QB are prepped for it. Quick hitch before the S can get over for a solid gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
All day, nobody on the screen, no throw, eventual rollout and throwaway. (TA, N/A, protection 3/3)
O46 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 NIckel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
Patterson’s first read is not there and then he’s buried. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M47 3 17 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Comeback Lodge 11
Good protection; second or third read from Patterson finds Lodge coming open on a comeback route well short of the sticks. Patterson pulls Lodge off his feet with a slightly low throw. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)
O14 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop Lodge 9
Another CB blitz that converts a route, it looks like, as Lodge just stops when his guy goes in. Patterson sees it and throws it; Lodge runs over the filling S to near a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Flare screen RB Inc
LT fails to cut the playside DE and he bats the ball down. This is not a BA because it’s a screen he has to throw. (not charted, screen, protection 0/1)
M35 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Screen RB 12
Wide open and an easy conversion. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +2)
O49 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 8 Pass Fade WR Inc (Pen +15)
Strange all around here as Vandy goes zero on second and five; instead of running a post or something that would take advantage of it it’s another fade route. This one is way long but probably because the CB latched onto the WR and slowed him, drawing a flag. (not charted, N/A, protection 1/1)
M25 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Hitch Brown 10
Easy conversion as the CB lined up over Brown slides down into the box and then tries to recover. Expecting a run, I guess. Easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

WELL I CERTAINLY FEEL REFRESHED

welcome back

LET'S TALK ABOUT OUR LORD AND SAVIOR SHEA PATTERSON

Sacrelicious as always, I see.

GIVE ME THE GOOD STUFF NOW

This game was sort of muted? Three of Patterson's touchdowns were gifts from Vanderbilt safeties, another long completion was a WR bailout, and aside from one drive that started off in first and 26 somehow, Patterson was almost always operating near midfield or closer to Vandy's goal line. When you get 58 yards on a basic RPO slant…

…you're gonna have a good time. Also when the one-high safety turns his back on the slot receiver and goes to the wrong hash.

The other long TD was so open it wasn't worth clipping.

Despite the ease of the big plays, add it up and it's another level than Michigan's QB play from a year ago:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

What's more, those negative events were almost all of the benign variety: inaccurate balls on tough downfield sideline routes, a ball thrown away despite a lot of time, a failure to understand that the half was about to end. Other than a couple of passes batted at the line (one did not get charted because it was a screen), no Vandy defender touched the ball. There are no starred ohshit throws. The worst thing he did was throw a flare screen behind his running back on the one drive Ole Miss was backed up.

And while he was provided some easy long TD he hit every one of those throws with precision. Patterson's accuracy in this game was impressive. He wasn't just hitting guys, he was hitting them in the facemask. This qualified as one of his less precise throws.

I mentioned it in the table, and then thought "why am I mentioning this completely standard throw?" Because it wasn't in a guy's facemask.

Five DO throws? Are we grading on a hope curve?

Well, I never. While Patterson's TDs were mostly routine throws there were a selection of eye-openers. Ole Miss threw a lot of fades last season—I'm betting that that's one reason they got crushed vs LSU and Alabama—and Patterson displayed excellent, consistent touch on them. Ole Miss's crew of burly WRs is capable with the ball in the air, but they're not exactly blazers. This was a fairly typical outcome of the many fades:

There's not a lot of window there and Patterson hits it. When he missed it was usually a narrow thing. One glanced off DK Metcalf's fingertips…

…others were very good, accurate throws to blanketed receivers, like this Prothro catch:

This is a perfect throw if the WR didn't get beat up on his route. Since he did and your formation—everyone in the boundary, solo WR to field on the hash—is designed to give your WR a ton of room to the sideline on a fade route, I assume the back shoulder is option 1B and should be thrown. There were a couple of these.

OTOH, the back shoulder is in his toolbox and was the throw on Patterson's most impressive TD:

He looked the part of the five-star in this game.

Are you still on this Tate Forcier comparison?

Tate Forcier is a nice comparison! The guy failed out shortly after declaring it was impossible to fail out, yeah. While on the field, he was really promising as a pass-first run-second spread QB. Patterson is also that. Here's his best Tate vs ND impression:

He's not exactly dynamic. He's going to lose in space against a DB or linebacker most of the time, and when Ole Miss did pop him open for a chunk play he slid way too early.

We talked about this a ton last year, but sliding like that is probably more dangerous than just getting tackled.

The other point of comparison with Forcier is Patterson's ability to slide around the pocket, or break outside, and make a play out of busted protections. This incompletion might be Patterson's most impressive pass on the day, as it's a pinpoint back-foot throw that nearly results in a 15-yard out despite the pressure:

Here he's able to re-set in the pocket and find Lodge for a chunk:

He's extremely comfortable on the move, even when rolling left as a right-handed QB.

Patterson's ability to keep plays alive and then strike downfield is very Tate-like… and by God if there's any team configuration that cries out for a Tate-alike, "this team is awesome except for the worst pass protection in the country last year" is it.

What does it mean for the future?

Judgment is withheld until I can get handle on the dual LSU/Alabama debacles, but Patterson's extremely consistent fade delivery leapt out in this game, as did his comfort when throwing from non-standard-pocket-statue body positions.

I think I phrased some of my talk about Patterson poorly, causing folks to think I'm relatively down on him. When I said he doesn't look like a typical five star, what I meant was he didn't look like your typical pro-style lumber-cannon, like Stanford's endless procession of five-star guys who don't quite work out. He looks like a scrappy underdog sort who gets ranked #159th. Then he uncorks those fades.

Unverified Voracity Says Throw-God, No

Unverified Voracity Says Throw-God, No

Submitted by Brian on May 1st, 2018 at 12:29 PM

Recruiting rankings matter, and also have a systemic bias. NFL players versus blue chip recruits, mapped:

image

Blue states have more NFL players than blue chip recruits; red states have fewer. That's part of a thorough Football Study Hall article on recruiting rankings and the draft, and is about as conclusive as possible that the recruiting industry is systematically underrating the Midwest and overrating the south. The south does have more players—only an idiot would dispute that—but the gap isn't as big as the rankings suggest.

UPDATE: Related event:

Barkley was not composite top 100.

"I'm in Paris, better justify my existence." Kyle Rowland of the Blade unearths a cool Michigan story:

image


PARIS — Less than 10 miles from the Michigan football team’s palatial hotel in the heart of Paris sits Stade Olympique de Colombes, the host of the 1924 Olympic Games.

The old stadium, now 111 years old, is rickety and considerably smaller than its heyday when it entertained the world’s best athletes. Inside the concrete walls, DeHart Hubbard, one of the University of Michigan’s greatest sportsmen, became the first African-American to win an Olympic gold medal in an individual event, with a leap of 24 feet, 5 inches in the long jump on his sixth and final jump with a bruised heel.

“When I was a student, I came in 1976, and I looked at the school records because I was a long jumper, and that’s when I found out the first notion of who he was,” said James Henry, now the co-head coach of the UM women’s track and field team. “Then I found out he was the first African-American Olympic gold medalist. I was enthralled by him. He was my role model.

“He was at the University of Michigan at a time in which blacks couldn't do very much anywhere. I just felt that if this man can make it, I can make it. Making a name for myself by beating his records meant everything to me. That was my drive as a student-athlete to participate at a high level.”

Much more at the link. Now Rowland can file that expense report with a clear conscience.

Paging Mitch Leidner to the Department of Inexplicably Overrated Big Ten Quarterbacks. One mock draft was a hilarious oversight by an overworked intern. Two was worrisome. But now that it appears the NFL draft people are unanimous in asserting this person is a first round pick

    The Pick: Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern

    The New York Giants passed on the chance to draft a quarterback of the future with the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft, but is that a decision they'll regret? Or will fourth-rounder Kyle Lauletta be the answer?

    If after a season of watching Lauletta and 2017 third-rounder Davis Webb, the Giants feel like the long-term answer at starter isn't on the roster, the team could be in good shape to draft a quarterback in 2019. Northwestern's Clayton Thorson nearly declared for this year's draft before surveying the deep group of passers and deciding to return to school. He has the arm, accuracy and intangibles to be considered a first-rounder one year from now.

…it's time to lay very still and sweat profusely, hoping this is a crazy dream.

Clayton Thorson! Sir, I have seen an unstoppable throw-god in purple. You, sir, are no Trevor Siemian. Thorson averaged 6.6 YPA with a 15-12 TD-INT ratio last year. But he's 6'4" and superficially looks like an NFL quarterback, so on the list he goes.

Making this take even nuttier: Thorson tore his ACL in the bowl game and is questionable for the upcoming season.

Meanwhile, Michigan prospects for 2019. Only two Wolverines show up on Athlon's top 50: #2 Rashan Gary and #22 Shea Patterson. Zach Shaw rounded up all the Way Too Early Mock Drafts and those two are the only guys on any of them. This is odd to me since Michigan's cornerback duo was probably the best in the country, at least in terms of passer rating allowed. You'd think one of the two would be a consideration for the end of the first round.

A flip. A development in the slightly less important FBI investigation:

The director of an amateur Massachusetts basketball team affiliated with Adidas AG agreed to plead guilty and cooperate with prosecutors investigating an NCAA bribery scandal, according to a copy of the agreement made public Friday.

Thomas "T.J." Gassnola entered the plea on March 30 to federal charges that he made payments to families of high school student-athletes in exchange for their commitment to play for certain universities, according to the filing.

NC State seems to be the main school linked with Gassnola, but, uh… Notre Dame(!) is an Adidas[correction: they switched to UA] school that just picked up two players from Gassnola's AAU team. I will give the FBI one dollar if they sweep the Irish into this. Think of the ND Nation takes.

Wilde take. Quinn Hughes is #5 on this NHL mock draft. Bode Wilde is #17:

17. New Jersey Devils: Bode Wilde, D, U.S. U18 (NTDP)

There are few prospects in this draft who can provide GMs with a skill set as tantalizing as Wilde’s. The big, mobile defender was a minute muncher for a deep NTDP blue line and his explosive first step is drool inducing. You don’t find many 6-2 defensemen with dynamic speed and a blistering shot, which is why GM Ray Shero should add this thoroughbred to his already-dangerous Devils’ attack

He'll be an acid test for the new staff's ability to mold guys, because he's a boom or bust guy on the NHL level because of his tendency to get out of position and cede odd man rushes.

FWIW, Hughes is the only draft-eligible and only college player on this year's IIHF World Championship team.

Etc.: John Infante on the NCAA resurrecting the transfer waiver, which may have been relevant for Patterson. WCBN profiles Hughes. The era in which Orson launches entirely warranted bombs at a Michigan assistant coach is going to be brutal. Wagner and Matthews invited to the draft combine.

Report: Shea Patterson to Be Ruled Eligible for 2018

Report: Shea Patterson to Be Ruled Eligible for 2018

Submitted by Seth on April 26th, 2018 at 5:59 PM

image

the same five photos will continue this summer [Bryan Fuller]

Good newwwws everyone! As first reported by Chris Balas of The Wolverine and confirmed by Josh Henschke of The Michigan Insider/247, word out of Schembechler Hall this evening is that the NCAA is expected to rule Shea Patterson immediately eligible for this year, though even now 247’s report was a bit measured:

The Michigan Insider is able to confirm published reports that Patterson is expected to be granted immediate eligibility by the NCAA with the news coming as soon as Friday. As of a week ago, the U-M programs confidence was at about 90%. On Thursday, TMI can also confirm that the confidence level has risen.

Ole Miss submitted its last response to Shea’s appeal two weeks ago and a resolution was expected tomorrow-ish. Michigan sources have maintained a high level of confidence during this process, and given the relative strength of Shea’s case versus his former school’s, this outcome was favored, but with the NCAA nothing’s ever certain.

Jimmystats: Projecting Patterson and Peters

Jimmystats: Projecting Patterson and Peters

Submitted by Seth on April 25th, 2018 at 12:27 PM

imageimage

How up is up? [Bryan Fuller/Patrick Barron]

In the last spring football bits, and then in the podcast, I mentioned that I’d pulled the sophomore/redshirt freshman stats of a couple decades of quarterbacks we know in order to put our two 2016 signal-callers’ 2017s in perspective. I figure I should show that work.

I was trying to answer two questions: where did Peters/Patterson rank among other QBs their age, and what’s a standard progression for a guy who started his second year upon entering his third?

1. Shea and Brandon vs Other 2nd year QBs

Bless Foxsports.com for keeping sack stats with quarterbacks. I wish I’d taken rushing stats too but alas I only grabbed the passing stuff.

There’s going to be a lot of noise in here so a few things as you peruse:

  1. Some of the weirder results were low sample sizes. I only counted 100 or more attempts, so like Tate Forcier 2010 didn’t make the cut and Peters just did barely. Still I shaded in red a few to beware.
  2. I have them ranked by “Efficiency Percentile,” a junk stat I made up that’s 49% sack-adjusted yards per attempt, 23% each touchdown and interception rate, and 5% completion rating, normalized as a percentile among all the QB seasons (about 500 of them) I grabbed. The QBs are Big Ten mostly plus ND and Stanford guys Harbaugh coached. Kenpom Christmas colors apply: green is good, red is bad.
  3. I also showed completion %, sack rate, and college quarterback ratings, though they’re not included in the rankings.

The Kizer comp for Patterson is pretty close—I’m hesitant to give him Russell Wilson because Wilson had an extremely low interception rate, a trait which seems to presage NFL success. Shea…does not. The good news is the sack rate is correlated with so many things it’s impossible to say if Shea’s higher than normal rate of going down behind the line was indicative of anything. Sometimes it’s just a bad OL.

It was very possible for two QBs on the same team to have dramatically different sack rates. But the stat doesn’t give the reason. Sometimes that really was about poise:

image

Sometimes however it’s about which part of the schedule you got:

image

And sometimes it’s completely counter-intuitive:

image

Other than Denard most running QBs had high sack rates like Shea’s. I can’t tell you why—maybe those guys try escaping instead of throwing it away when under pressure, or maybe being part of the run game gets them sacked because of play-action. The highest sack rating I tracked was Braxton Miller in 2011. Two of the top four are notoriously stoic T.J. Ostrander seasons, and two more in the  top ten are 2007 Notre Dame (bad OL). It’s too much to unpack.

[Hit THE JUMP for the Peters projection]

Spring Practice Presser 4-22-18: Pep Hamilton

Spring Practice Presser 4-22-18: Pep Hamilton

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on April 23rd, 2018 at 10:01 AM

38455820066_48ea09f518_z

[Fuller]

[Ed. A—Thanks to Orion Sang and The Michigan Daily crew for passing along audio]

“Well, I think we’re a tough group. I think we’re a tough group. Without a doubt, we’re still a work in progress. I think when you look at the group as a whole, we have some guys that actually have some game experience, and I feel good, really good about just the overall continuity of our staff and all the experience that we have and all the different ideas and how we were able to input the things that we feel like are going to be necessary for us to be a good offense next year.”

Tough how? More physical?

“I mea, physically tough, but a coach Harbaugh team, a Jim Harbaugh team, is always mentally tough as well. He likes to grind on guys. He likes to challenge guys to push past their threshold of comfort, and so we will be a tough group.”

With no designated offensive coordinator, how is the playcalling going to work?

“Coach Harbaugh, it’s his offense. Everything goes through Coach and it starts and ends with coach Harbaugh.”

Has your role in the offense changed? Are you taking on more responsibilities than last year?

“No. No, not at all.”

How do you and Jim McElwain process things together? Do you get some input from him?

“Yeah, we all work hard together. We all process things together, so to say coach McElwain, coach Warinner, Ron Prince, Ben McDaniels, along with Jay Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore, we work well together and it’s all a collaborative effort to present coach Harbaugh with some ideas of things that we like and he gives us the yes or no.”

So on gameday will there be somebody or will there be more than one person? Have you talked about that yet, who’s going to be talking to Coach?

“It’s always been that way.”

[Hit THE JUMP for impressions of each QB]

Spring Football Bits: Prove to Me that You’re Divine

Spring Football Bits: Prove to Me that You’re Divine

Submitted by Seth on April 10th, 2018 at 4:33 PM

image

you can’t throw a rock at Schembechler Hall without hitting someone talking up Bush and Dwumfour [Patrick Barron]

We got a lot of good stuff from over the weekend so let’s do another one of these. Depending on what’s leaking the rest of the week I may or may not get another out before the spring game, so I’ll try to make this one pretty comprehensive.

--------------------

Quarterback

image

Do you know what people say you are? [Bryan Fuller]

What we want to hear: Hosanna, hey-sanna, sanna sanna ho, sanna hey, sanna ho, sanna!

What we’re hearing: Multiple practice observers believe Patterson is well ahead of the other two, and the gap between him and Peters/McCaffrey is about equal to the gap between those two right now and where they were last year.

First the scouting. Harbaugh on his podcast said Shea Patterson has the best release and that he really shines when going off-script. Insiders are spitting out super-foobally platitudes: He’s “a leader.” He “makes plays.” That jives with his seat-of-the-pants film at Ole Miss and the general “Tate Forcier Except Goes to Class” impression we got from that. The insiders are way more bullish. The “he’s a leader” thing got emphasized by all three of my “SOURCES”, with one saying he’s probably the best offensive juice guy Michigan’s had since Harbaugh got here.

Brandon Peters throws the best ball, which is again something we knew. The biggest mover is Dylan McCaffrey, last year’s scout team player of the year, who benefited the most from Herbert in the offseason, and who gets rave reviews about his pocket command.

As for eligibility, Brian discussed it depth earlier this afternoon. The short version is it’s no surprise that Ole Miss opposed these waivers because the only way to avoid significant sanctions is casting Ohio State* and beating the NCAA’s wisdom throw.

*image

What it means: The first episode of the Amazon thing was a good reminder that nobody outside of the quarterback room knows the real status of the quarterback battle, so this is guesswork based on lay observations. But nothing can be done to stop the shouting; if every tongue were stilled the noise would still continue—the rocks and stone themselves would start to sing. Unless the NCAA (and again, we’re talking about the NCAA, not some group of responsible, potty-trained adults) buys Ole Miss’s innocence act, Patterson is your presumptive starter. For now.

There’s another clue that this is where the coaches are leaning: one of the points insiders made about is Pep is putting more emphasis on scramble drills. We all noticed last year how, with the notable exception of Grant Perry, Michigan’s receivers would end up standing around after running their routes instead of working back to the QB. If there’s a greater emphasis for the QBs on checking down and improvisation, and a greater emphasis for the WRs on providing those outlets, that kinda sounds like they’re shaping the offense to Shea’s strengths.

--------------------

[After THE JUMP: My two offensive lines theory, did you hear about Dwumfour?]