The Freshmen Have Numbers 2014

The Freshmen Have Numbers 2014

Submitted by Seth on June 20th, 2014 at 6:46 PM

Obligatory:

The rosters are here! The rosters are here! The big news is Blake Countess will be #2 cause…

charleswoodson97

(artist: Ted Watts)

That’s got to be a new legends number, right? Nobody got 11 or 21, FWIW.

Freshmen #s

The incoming freshmen were all bequeathed their digits as well. I give them here with a few notables to have worn the digit at that position in the past. I’ve chosen to include the freshmen who were here in spring; a list of just the fall arrivals is here, courtesy Wolverine Devotee. Burn these into your memory so that it will hurt more when they’re changed to Legends numbers in a few years.

Player # Pos Ht Wt Significance
Ian Bunting 94 TE 6'7" 223 Matt Studenski was the last TE. Massey, Horn.
Juwann Bushell-Beatty 76 OL 6'5" 295 Steve Hutchinson, and Brandstatter
Freddy Canteen 17 WR 6'1" 170 Forgotten great end (1930s version of WR) Ted Petoskey. Personal fav Carl Tabb.
Mason Cole 52 OL 6'5" 275 Rod Payne. Schilling.
Michael Ferns 51 LB 6'3" 233 John Duerr and a Brackins. (Everitt on offense)
Noah Furbush 59 LB 6'4" 229 89-90 linebacker Alex Marshall. The Sarantos my friend dated.
Drake Harris 14 WR 6'4" 180 Closest I can think of to a receiver getting PT is Andy Mignery.
Lawrence Marshall 93 DE 6'4" 230 Hoban and Jackson in the '70s. I see 93 I think Sam Sword.
Bryan Mone 90 DT 6'4" 315 Norm Heuer was a DT. Feazell, Jamison, DeFelice.
Brady Pallante 54 DT 6'1" 255 Donnie Warner. Imagine if Rudy actually become a really good starter, and was real.
Jabrill Peppers 5 DB 6'1" 210 Jersey manufacturers, start your presses. Coleman Wallace is the best CB, competition is Whitley. Think Jabrill will keep it all 4 years?
Wilton Speight 19 QB 6'6" 230 The other Forcier. And Harry Newman's backup.
Jared Wangler 19 LB 6'2" 215 Early '70s "Wolf" safety Darrell Truitt
Brandon Watson 28 DB 5'11" 185 Early '90s hard-hitter Deon Johnson.
Maurice Ways 85 WR 6'3" 192 Curt Stephenson and Marcus Knight
Chase Winovich 58 LB 6'3" 216 Dave Brandon Endowed This Position With His Own Name Not Kidding Cornerbacks Coach Roy Manning. Also '80s OLB Keith Cowan

Also:

Ty Isaac 32 RB 6'3" 225 A-Train.

Please only give this number to tiny safeties and huge running backs from now on forever kthx.

Heitzman Expansion Principle

This is the corollary to the Heininger Certainty Principle: a person, once removed from Hoke’s defensive line, will apparently grow 1 or more inches in height as his body adjusts to the difference in pressure. Heitzman is now listed 6’4”, one inch taller than he was in spring.

Other changes?

Didn’t spot any. Weights haven’t been updated yet.

Class of 2013: The New Numbers

Class of 2013: The New Numbers

Submitted by Seth on July 4th, 2013 at 7:52 AM

The 2013 rosters were updated yesterday afternoon with the freshmen added little tiny bits of else. Could have used this two weeks ago for HTTV. Anyhoo, this kind of thing is what passes for a holiday around these parts. The weights weren't changed so Brian will have to wait until the football media guide comes out (usually early August) to do his WEIGHT GAIN 2000 thing but no amount of "take the day off" is going to stop me from obsessive attention to rosters. Obsessive attention! To rosters!

People from the Spring Roster Now Missing

Nobody. Wait: not nobody. Dan Gibbs is gone but he wasn't on the spring roster despite participating.

Position Changes

Just some stuff on the defensive line. Most intriguing is Brennan Beyer's move to SAM isn't reflected; he remains listed as a DE. Wormley was a DE on the spring roster, is now the nebulous "DL" which I am taking to mean could be either 3T or 5T. Preferred walk-on Ryan Glasgow got "DL" as well, changed from DT. Tom Strobel is a DE instead of DT; since I took it as a bad sign when he seemed to be listed as a DT, going back to the SDE depth chart must be seen as a good sign. These signs are huge overreactions.

Number Changes

We have some!

Name Pos. Elig. Was Now Thoughts
Ross Douglas DB Fr 7 29 Everybody else wanted to be 7.
Drake Johnson RB Fr* 29 20 Ann Arborite and program kid knows his Michigan RB numbers.
Dennis Norfleet RB So 26 23 Jourdan Lewis wanted 26 I guess--still think his DB days are done.
Bobby Henderson RB Fr* 51 37 More appropriate.
Anthony Capatina DB Jr* 95 41 95 was a weird number anyway.
Jonathan Keizer WR So* 27 89 Not the last object Derrick Green will shove out of his way.

The Freshmen Have Numbers!

A lot of these were already reported. Here you go anyway.

Name No. Pos. Ht. Wt. EE? Hometown (High School)
Kyle Bosch 65 OL 6'5 307 St. Charles, Ill. (St. Francis)
Jake Butt 88 TE 6'6 231 Pickerington, Ohio (Pickerington North)
Taco Charlton 33 DE 6'6 265 Pickerington, Ohio (Central)
Reon Dawson 20 DB 6'2 175   Trotwood, Ohio (Trotwood-Madison)
David Dawson 55 OL 6'4 282   Detroit, Mich. (Cass Technical)
Ross Douglas 29 DB 5'10 176 Avon, Ohio (Avon)
Jaron Dukes 83 WR 6'4 197   Columbus, Ohio (Marion Franklin)
Chris Fox 73 OL 6'6 297   Parker, Colo. (Ponderosa)
Ben Gedeon 42 LB 6'3 215   Hudson, Ohio (Hudson)
Derrick Green 27 RB 5'11 220   Richmond, Va. (Hermitage)
Delano Hill 44 DB 6'0 198   Detroit, Mich. (Cass Technical)
Khalid Hill 80 TE 6'2 230   Detroit, Mich. (Crockett)
Maurice Hurst Jr. 73 DT 6'2 305   Westwood, Mass. (Xaverian Brothers)
Da'Mario Jones 14 WR 6'2 185   Westland, Mich. (John Glenn)
Patrick Kugler 57 OL 6'5 280   Wexford, Penn. (North Allegheny)
Jourdan Lewis 26 DB 5'10 159   Detroit, Mich. (Cass Technical)
Mike McCray 9 LB 6'4 230   Trotwood, Ohio (Trotwood-Madison)
Shane Morris 7 QB 6'3 183   Warren, Mich. (De La Salle)
Henry Poggi 7 DT 6'4 260   Baltimore, Md. (Gilman School)
Dan Samuelson 74 OL 6'5 275   Plymouth, Mich. (Plymouth)
Wyatt Shallman 33 RB 6'3 245   Novi, Mich. (Detroit Catholic Central)
De'Veon Smith 4 RB 5'11 218   Warren, Ohio (Howland)
Channing Stribling 8 DB 6'2 170   Matthews, N.C. (Butler)
Scott Sypniewski 43 LS 6'1 230   Ottawa, Ill. (Marquette)
Dymonte Thomas 25 DB 6'2 187 Alliance, Ohio (Marlington)
Logan Tuley-Tillman 72 OL 6'7 285 Peoria, Ill. (Manual)
Csont'e York 81 WR 6'3 185   Harper Woods, Mich. (Chandler Park Academy)

The freshman heights and weights were almost certainly taken from Rivals, or perhaps the same book that Rivals uses. Other than the early enrollees, the only height or weight difference is they put Derrick Green at 5'11 instead of 6'0. The big disagreement seems to be on Shane Morris (pre-/post- mono?), who's 183 to Rivals/MGoBlue but 202 to Scout and 201 to 247Sports; ESPN split the difference at 190. Other weight disagreements I'm keeping an eye on: Scout had Gedeon, Delano Hill, Chris Fox, and Mike McCray 10-15 lbs heavier, David Dawson 8 lbs lighter.

Still Missing

The new walk-ons. Preferred guys I know of are quarterback Garrett Moores, receivers Blaise Stearns and (EDIT) Jack Wangler, guards Dan Gibbs and (left team) Greg Froelich, and kicker J.J. McGrath. DeAnthony Hardison, the nifty running back wearing 18 in the Spring Game who wasn't on the listed roster is still not on the listed roster. Wait for the media guide I guess. Happy 4th.

Hokepoints on Redshirts 2013

Hokepoints on Redshirts 2013

Submitted by Seth on July 2nd, 2013 at 11:04 AM

redshirts

I was asked the other day which of the freshmen would redshirt and I was like "ooh I'll Hokepoints that." Then I realized I wrote something on this last year,.

What it is: redshirting comes from the five-to-play-four rule. As written:

14.2.1 Five-Year Rule - A student-athlete shall complete his or her seasons of participation within five calendar years from the beginning of the semester or quarter in which the student-athlete first registered for a minimum full-time program of studies in a collegiate institution, with time spent in the armed services, on official church missions or with recognized foreign aid services of the U.S. government being excepted. For foreign students, service in the armed forces or on an official church mission of the student's home country is considered equivalent to such service in the United States.

14.2.3.5 Participation after 21st Birthday - Any participation as an individual or a team representative in organized sports competition by a student during each 12-month period after the student's 21st birthday and prior to initial full-time enrollment in a collegiate institution shall count as one year of varsity competition in that sport. Participation in organized competition during time spent in the U.S. armed services shall be excepted.

This is the 2010 version of the 1996 version of the 1986 "prop 48" that codified a rule going back to one of the NCAA's original guidelines from 1910. One of the first rules of the fledgling Big Ten was to require a year of residency at the school before competing. As the NCAA reformed through the 1930s the five-to-play-four thing was codified. Nebraska legend claims the first redshirt (they would), when Warren Alfson asked to sit out 1937, his sophomore year. The term comes from the color of the shirt scout teamers at some team wore—too many schools claim to be the origin for us to know which it was.

2012 Update: Among last year's guys, Clark, Gant, Strobel, Wormely, Godin, Henry, Ringer (no longer with team), Bars, Braden, Kalis, Magnuson, Drake Johnson, and Chesson made it through with their redshirts intact. Wilson, Pipkins, Bolden, Ross, Norfleet, Funchess, A.J. Williams, and Darboh played often, and Richardson, Ojemudia, Jenkins-Stone and Houma had theirs burned on special teams or backup duties or because Frank Clark got himself benched for a game. Gardner received his medical redshirt, and Countess put in for what will almost assuredly be his. Hagerup will have 2013 count for him.

Michigan's Redshirting History

My data goes back to 1993 because that's how far back Mike DeSimone goes and I used him to extend my database beyond my fan memory.

Class Recruits DNE RS'ed* % of class**
1993 23   17 74%
1994 22   19 86%
1995 19   14 74%
1996 20   14 70%
1997 18   10 56%
1998 19   10 53%
1999 23   19 83%
2000 19 1 13 72%
2001 21   15 (+1) 71%
2002 21 1 15 70%
2003 16   9 (+1) 56%
2004 24   18 75%
2005 24   13 (+2) 54%
2006 21 1 11 (+1) 55%
2007 23   11 (+3) 48%
2008 25 2 14 (+1) 61%
2009 23 1 14 64%
2010 27 4 12 (+1) 52%
2011 21 2 11 (+1) 58%
2012 25   13 52%
Total 434 12 271 (+12) 64%

* Those parenthetical +'s are medical hardship redshirts or mid-career transfer years, e.g. the three for 2007 are Woolfolk, Hemingway and Threet.

** % of those enrolled who redshirted as freshmen

DNE=Did not enroll

We're guessing non-qualifiers were a problem solved by the regime change and this staff's tendency to target guys who spend their weekends doing nothing but homework and helping old ladies cross the street. Anyway they happen before the redshirt decision is made so I've removed them from the numbers. We see some fluctuating, where anywhere between a half and 86% of a class is shirted. In chart form (click biggets):

chartshirting

As you figured, position matters.

Position Recruited Redshirted %
Quarterbacks 21 13 61.9%
Running Backs 33 12 36.4%
Fullbacks 19 10 52.6%
Receivers 42 22 52.4%
Tight Ends 27 21 77.8%
Off Linemen 72 69 95.8%
Def Tackles 31 17 54.8%
Def Ends 36 24 66.7%
Linebackers 55 37 67.3%
Safeties 32 18 56.3%
Corners 36 14 38.9%
Specialists 18 14 77.8%

Cornerbacks and running backs tend to play right away. Receivers, safeties, fullbacks and defensive linemen play if they're big enough. Quarterbacks, linebackers, ends and tight ends are shirted if possible while they bulk up. Offensive linemen nearly always redshirt.

Hype matters too. I only have average stars to whatever sites in my database back to the class of '97 but that'll do:

Stars Recruits RS'ed %
★★★★★ 21 6 28.6%
★★★★.5 29 19 65.5%
★★★★ 84 46 54.8%
★★★.5 89 57 64.0%
★★★ 94 60 63.8%
★★.5 24 17 70.8%
★★ 7 6 85.7%
Walk-on 10 10 100.0%

Predicting the Class of 2013

Player Pos (RS rate) Stars RS?? Reason?
Kyle Bosch OL (96%) ★★★★ yes Is OL. However early enrollee and 2nd in this class to play if needed.
Jake Butt TE (78%) ★★★★ no EE. Could use poundage but Funchess and Williams only guys ahead
Taco Charlton DE (67%) ★★★★ no Beyer's move to SAM puts Taco on the three-deep at WDE, a rotational position
David Dawson OL (96%) ★★★★ yes Is OL
Reon Dawson CB (39%) ★★★ yes One of them has to.
Ross Douglas CB (39%) ★★★.5 no EE and at least one of the young corners will play.
Jaron Dukes WR (52%) ★★★.5 yes Either he or York will probably play this year.
Chris Fox OL (96%) ★★★★ yes Is OL
Ben Gedeon LB (67%) ★★★★ yes LB depth is finally good enough we can RS these guys.
Derrick Green RB (36%) ★★★★★ no Probably #2 on depth chart right now.
Delano Hill SS (56%) ★★★.5 yes May crack the depth chart w/ M-Rob's departure but there should be enough guys ahead.
Khalid Hill TE (78%) ★★★ no They played Houma last year and Hill is a weapon Borges can't wait to deploy.
Maurice Hurst Jr. DT (55%) ★★★.5 yes If one of QWash,Pipkins or Henry may need freshman NT, otherwise RS.
Da'Mario Jones WR (52%) ★★★ yes Is the slot of the WRs; there's two seniors there now (Dileo & Jackson)
Patrick Kugler OL (96%) ★★★★.5 yes Is OL but could be in the mix; if he's not ahead of both Miller & Glasgow he should shirt. Burzynski can be 3rd guy at C.
Jourdan Lewis CB (39%) ★★★★ no Corners play early, or get wasted on punt coverage.
Mike McCray LB (67%) ★★★★ yes See Gedeon
Shane Morris QB (62%) ★★★★.5 no Death to ACLs
Henry Poggi DT (55%) ★★★★ yes Is the more 3T of the freshmen, so lots of options ahead of him.
Dan Samuelson OL (96%) ★★★.5 yes Is OL, needs to develop as a pass blocker.
Wyatt Shallman RB (36%) ★★★.5 yes Will RS while they find a position for him.
Deveon Smith RB (36%) ★★★.5 no RBs play early, will pass Rawls by end of season as #2 thumperback.
Channing Stribling CB/S (39%) ★★★ yes Skinny and positionally unsure but probably will be wasted on special teams.
Scott Sypniewski LS (96%) n/a yes Glanda still here.
Dymonte Thomas S (56%) ★★★★.5 no Already the starting nickel
Logan Tuley-Tillman OL (96%) ★★★★ yes Is OL, developmental prospect, a lock.
Csont'e York WR (52%) ★★★ no One of the receivers will have to play at least, York seems most polished.

Hokepoints: Predicting the Numbers 134

Hokepoints: Predicting the Numbers 134

Submitted by Seth on June 4th, 2013 at 11:04 AM

IMG_2347

hi bennie! /Upchurch

It's an annual rite of fan dorkiness each year to try to be the first to guess which numbers the incoming freshmen will be given by obsessively google stalking them. Sometimes I have some inside knowledge from a recruit who was promised his digit, or tweeted his preferences or something. Here's how I did last year:

Name Pos. # in HS 2012 Guess Actual
A.J. Williams TE 88 88 84
Allen Gant S 7 and 14 14 12
Amara Darboh WR 15 15 82
Ben Braden OL 51 51 71
Blake Bars OL 67 72 62
Chris Wormley DE 47 84 or 68 43
Dennis Norfleet RB/KR 21 21 if available, or 31 26
Devin Funchess TE 5 and 15 85 19
Drake Johnson RB 2 and 18 32 or 6 or 23 29
Erik Magnuson OL 77 78 78
James Ross LB 6 36 15
Jehu Chesson WR 5 82 86
Jeremy Clark S 2 29 34
Kyle Kalis OL 67 67 67
Mario Ojemudia DE 53 53 53
Matthew Godin DT 62 62 99
Ondre Pipkins NT 71 56 56
Royce Jenkins-Stone LB 10 10 52
Sione Houma FB 35 41 or 32 39
Terry Richardson CB 3 and 6 and 9 9 13
Tom Strobel DE 36 63 or 93 or 86 50
Willie Henry DT 74 74 or 68 69

Four out of 22 ain't…well yes it is. It was bad. This article is useless. Let's continue it anyway; I swear to do better.

Getting to know you. Each coach has his own tendencies with this so we'll get better at it in time. With Hoke, he seems to like having consecutive numbers in the same position group, perhaps for mentoring purposes because they sit next to each other in the locker room. It's far from a rule, but it's a trend. Carr rarely let a player share a specialist's digit, but Hoke doesn't seem to have a problem with it, for example Wormley and Hagerup share a number, and walk-on tight end Alex Mitropoulus-Rundus (I'm gonna just start calling him "Alex M-R") has the same digit as backup punter Kenny Allen. Rich Rodriguez was far more apt to share numbers, and the single digits were nearly always doubled up; Hoke has said in the past that he doesn't like doing that, and the practice has been limited—as of spring just 5, 12 and 34 had scholarship recruits in both numbers, adding 54 and 56 to those double-occupied by players on the two-deep.

The roster lies. The official MGoBlue.com roster still doesn't have DeAnthony Hardison, that nifty RB you saw in the Spring Game. He's #18. Also a practice insider told me Anthony Capatina is playing slot receiver, not "DB" as he's listed on the depth chart. Also weirdly missing from that roster is #79 right tackle Dan Gibbs (a Seaholm Mape!!!), a 2012 preferred walk-on whose twitter profile pic is him riding an oliphant:

DWVAFy5

@DJBunyan

Legends/Special #s: 1 because Braylon's scholarship killed the fun, unless Gallon gets it. It won't come as much of a surprise to you that 2 will probably be entering the Legends program this season. There will also be some push for 16, and I doubt it'll be assigned to an offensive player immediately. 11 for the Wisterts, 21 for Desmond, and 87 for Ron Kramer are currently open; it is likely they'll be assigned to veterans whose digits might then be made available if it happens before the season. Bennie's 47 and Jerry's 48 remain occupied by current players and there's no way a second guy will get them. And I've been told they're still working on the Harmon family with 98. Anyway they won't go to freshmen.

Already worn on both sides: 5 (Courtney Avery and Justice Hayes), 6 (Raymon Taylor and Brian Cleary), 12 (Gardner and Allen Gant), 13 (Terry Richardson and Alex Swieca), 15 (James Ross and Shaun Austin), 34 (Jeremy Clark and Brendan Gibbons), 43 (Chris Wormley and Will Hagerup), 54 (Richard Ash and Jareth Glanda), 56 (Ondre Pipkins and Joey Burzynski), 69 (Willie Henry and Erik Gunderson), and 95 (Anthony Capatina and Michael Jocz).

Available on offense only: 4, 7, 14, 18, 22, 24, 25, 30, 33, 35, 40, 50, 52, 53, 55, 57, 59, 66, 76, 92, 96, 97, 99

Available on defense only: 3, 8, 9, 10, 17, 19, 26, 27, 28, 29, 38, 39, 42, 45, 46, 49, 51, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 70, 71, 72, 75, 77, 78, 82, 84, 85, 86, 88, 94

1146879Walk-ons with soft claims: Every year there's a Jon Keizer on the roster who thinks his number is safe, then some top running back recruit in the country (right: from Scout) runs him over with star power (dadada, didda-da diddadidda…). Scout teamers without scholarships often have their numbers taken, for example Charlie Zeller was 19 on the 2012 spring roster and Paul Gyarmati was sitting on 99, but Devin Funchess and Matt Godin nabbed those digits last fall. This year they are 15 (Shaun Austin—note that Ross has it on D), 18 (DeAnthony Hardison—note that Countess has it on D), 27 (Jon Keizer), 36 (AJ Pearson—note that Kerridge has it on O), 42 (Dylan Esterline), 46 (Clark Grace), 49 (Brad Anlauf), 51 (Bobby Henderson), 59 (Mark Lawson), 63 (Ben Pliska), 66 (Dan Liesman), 70 (Kris Mateus), 79 (Dan Gibbs), (91 (Alex M-R, though Kenny Allen wears it too), and 95 (Anthony Capatina and Mike Jocz). The other walk-ons I didn't mention (Dever, Cleary, Glanda, Burzynski, Reynolds, Allen, Gunderson, Jocz and the Glasgows) are either on the two-deep already or in the mix.

Currently unused: 20, 23, 31, 32, 37, 41, 44, 64, 68, 73, 74, 80, 81, 83, 89, 90, 93, π

You just said Pi. We're Michigan fergodsakes. All the constants—φ, ζ(3), α and δ, Euler's e, γ, λ, K, r, and Ω—ought to be fair game, and if someone takes √-1 and uses the nickname "Impossible" he will be my favorite for ever and ever.

EVERYBODY LET'S ALL BE #7!!!

Name Pos. HS # Tea Leaves Best Guess
David Dawson OG 71 Wore 55 in Under Armour game, 33 in Army AA game. 55* - His Twitter acct is David Dawson 5⃣5⃣
Reon Dawson BCB 1 Wore 13, 24 and 1 in high school. 31 - seems to fit.
Jaron Dukes WR 8 Twitter handle is @Jaron_Dukes8 83* 80 - Is 8-like.
Chris Fox OL 73 Wore #13 (?) at Army AA game and #33 at Rivals 5-star challenge 73* - Guy likes #3
Greg Froelich OG 77 Wore that and 75 in high school (preferred walk-on) 76 - Not exactly Steve Hutchinson.
Ben Gedeon MLB 15 James Ross is already James Ross. 45 - David Harris's # but precludes punt coverage.
Derrick Green RB 27 Wore 27 in Army AA game. 27* - call it a hunch. Sorry Keizer.
Delano Hill Nk/FS 11 Looks like he's 40. 32 (Kovacs's other #) or 23
Khalid Hill FB/TE 32 Very Kevin Dudley of him. 32 or 23
Maurice Hurst NT 50 Wore #11 in Semper Fi Bowl. 68 - Mike Martin's #
Da'Mario Jones WR 11 Wore #7 in that photo of recruits in white M jerseys. #15 at MSU camp. Same school as Tony Boles, who wore 42 at Michigan but had 18 touchdowns so... 14* 18 - I admit this is thin.
Patrick Kugler OC 57 Wore 57 at UA game. Dad and bro wore 57. 57 - O'KUGLER RULES!
Jourdan Lewis CB 1 Also wore #17 at Cass Tech, #27 at Army AA game. 17 or 3 or 37.
Mike McCray SAM 9 Wore #9 at UA game. Father wore 99 at OSU 9* - He and Dileo both likely to be on special teams, but not the same groups.
J.J. McGrath K 13 preferred walk-on 35 - Or some kicker number.
Shane Morris QB 12 Gardner switched, so... 7 - he already tweeted it.
Henry Poggi 3T 7 Wore 17 at UA game. Was given #7 locker in May. Plays jazz flute. 70 - Ross Douglass already took 7.
Dan Samuelson OG 74 Photo out there of him wearing a Nebraska 74 jersey. Twitter handle is @dansamuelson74. 74 - it's available.
Wyatt Shallman FB 49 49 is available on defense. 33* for his DCC teammate who passed away. 49 - Sorry Brad Anlauf.
Deveon Smith RB 4 Is a 4-star? 4 - It's open.
Blaise Stearns WR 1 Townie: Can't find what he wore at Huron before transferred. Preferred walk-on 89 - Doesn't exactly get 1st pick.
Channing Stribling FS 8 #22 commit to the class. 8* - It's open
Scott Sypniewski LS 56 Wore #45 at his long-snapper camp. 41 - Who cares.
Jack Wangler WR 21 Dad wore #5 at Mich (preferred walk-on) 16* 25 - Like Kennedy.
Csont'e York WR 1 Was #667 at NFTC 81 - With an eye toward dropping the 8.

Go ahead and make your guesses. We'll have our answers in a few weeks.

* UPDATE: After I posted this Magnus alerted me to his post of numbers that have already been revealed. I had some good guesses. I crossed out my comments if the guess was wrong.

Class of 2012: The New Numbers

Class of 2012: The New Numbers

Submitted by Seth on August 3rd, 2012 at 8:09 AM

fbl-guide-2011fbguide2012

The 2012 Football Media Guide was released last night. Like all media guides it has lots of information reporters will Google/Bentley anyway if they ever need it. This one also comes with an extensive section on 100-yard rushers and 100-yard rushing duos in case, you know, anyone needs to write an article this year about two guys rushing for over 100 yards in a game or something. It also has a roster. A ROSTER!!! OMIGOD OMIGOD OMIGOD OMIGOD, OBSESSIVE ATTENTION TO ROSTER NUMBERS, GO!

Notable non-bullets:

NO position switches: Everybody who was a thing in spring is still that thing. sayed

Baquer Sayed not on it again. This same thing happened last year and then he turned up back on the team so this could be nothing. (UPDATE: Confirmed he has left the team.) Baquer was in the Spring Game and caught one of those passes listed as "unknown" in the box score. He was a 2010 preferred walk-on, one of those tall, loping-type receivers who look like they're hunched over until they extend to unworldly lengths. He turned down MAC offers to walk on here. Tim Sullivan interviewed him on MGo a few years ago. Yes, that Fordson.

Devin Gardner a junior, not RS soph. You shouldn't expect him to be since they won't say until he applies following the 2013 season, but I always look anyway.

WDEs the Biggest Gainers. Brennan Beyer is now 252 lbs., up 27 from the Spring roster, meaning he has gained the mass of the world's biggest lobster. Space fact: it now takes as much extra energy for Beyer to jump as it takes an astronaut in his space suit to jump from the surface of the moon. Frank Clark is up 32 lbs. for a listed 260. In other guys moving down the line, Jibreel Black is up to 276 (+16) and Roh is listed at 278 (+9).

Holy Ondre! Ondre Pipkins, at 337 pounds, is the biggest dude on the entire roster. For reference, Will Campbell arrived at 309, Richard Ash was 320, and freshman Gabe Watson was 358.* Other freshmen arriving much larger than advertised are Willie Henry (6'3-302, from 6'2-270), Ben Braden (6'6-319, from 285), Erik Magnuson (6'6-290 from 275), Amara Darboh (6'2-218 from 190), A.J. Williams (6'6-282 from 270), The Funchess (6'4-225 from 6'5-205), and James Ross (6'1-225 from 6'0-209). Only RJS arrived smaller than sites said (6'2-206 from 215).

* "That's all?" —everyone my age who ever played against Southfield

---------------------------------------

On to the fully digit-ed freshmen!

No. Name Pos. Ht Wt Note
12 Allen Gant S 6'2 196 Nice compromise btw dad (14) and cousin (2)
13 Terry Richardson CB 5'9 154 154 pounds = 11 stone, $239 U.S., "small"
15 James Ross LB 6'1 225 Much closer to LB size than as a recruit (209)
19 Devin Funchess TE 6'4 225 Much closer to TE size than as a recruit (205)
22 Jarrod Wilson S 6'2 195 Spring
26 Dennis Norfleet RB 5'7 161  
29 Drake Johnson RB 6'1 203  
34 Jeremy Clark S 6'4 191  
35 Joe Bolden LB 6'3 224 Spring
39 Sione Houma FB 6'0 221  
43 Chris Wormley DE 6'5 268  
49 Kaleb Ringer LB 6'1 230 Spring - up 11 lbs. since
50 Tom Strobel DE 6'6 250  
52 Royce Jenkins-Stone LB 6'2 206 Winner of "I'm Ray Lewis" sweepstakes among Mattison LB recruits. Guessing redshirt.
53 Mario Ojemudia DE 6'2 223 Wore 53 in high school
56 Ondre Pipkins DT 6'3 337 He asked for 56 - for Woodley
62 Blake Bars OL 6'5 282  
67 Kyle Kalis OL 6'5 292  
69 Willie Henry DT 6'3 302 How did they miss a kid that size at a program like Glenville?
71 Ben Braden OL 6'6 319 Is this OT depth is see? Size: yes. Technique: unlikely.
78 Erik Magnuson OL 6'6 290 Same as with Braden.
82 Amara Darboh WR 6'2 218 I was so sure he'd take 15
84 A.J. Williams TE 6'6 282 Is it legal to make a guy that size an eligible receiver?
86 Jehu Chesson WR 6'3 183  
99 Matthew Godin DT 6'6 270  

You are welcome to see how wrong I was at guessing. Or you can burn that. You know what, burn that.

Number Changes:

Not as many as in years previous.

Name Pos. Was Now This is not the reason
Drew Dileo WR 26 9 Step 1: Get assigned locker next to Gallon. Step 2: Steal cloaking device.
Devin Gardner QB 7 12 Bought a Gutierrez jersey in '04 before he got his Henne one. Recently discovered it in back of the closet.
Paul Gyarmati FB 99 31 Inaugural "Name Legends" jersey, will include patch honoring Herman Everhardus (1930-'33)

Meet the Walk-Ons:

The new guys. Those listed were not on the spring roster.

No Name Pos Ht Wt Elig Hometown (H.S.)
3 Bo Dever# WR 6'2 189 FR Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)
6 Brian Cleary# QB 6'3 202 FR Detroit, Mich. (Detroit Jesuit)
18 Devon Micou WR 6'0 184 RS FR Ann Arbor, Mich. (Huron)
31 Andrew Offerdahl S 5'11 192 FR Fort Lauderdale, Fl. (Cardinal Gibbons)
46 Chris Maye# DB 5'11 178 FR Union City, Mich. (Union City)
59 Mark Lawson# LB 6'2 207 FR Ada, Mich. (Forest Hills Eastern)
63 Ben Pliska OL 6'3 267 FR Kirkland, Wa. (Lake Washington)
79 Dan Gibbs# OL 6'7 311 FR Birmingham, Mich. (Seaholm)
91 Kenneth Allen# P 6'3 205 FR Fenton, Mich. (Fenton)
91 David Mitropoulos-Rundus TE 6'2 242 RS FR Ann Arbor, Mich. (Pioneer)
95 Anthony Capatina K 5'9 181 RS SO Novi, Mich. (Detroit Catholic Central)
96 Ryan Glasgow# DL 6'4 285 FR Aurora, Ill. (Marmion Academy)

# = preferred walk-on. Interesting note: Glasgow is listed at DL, though the little chatter about him on the interwebs expected him to be an interior offensive lineman.

Counting Things on Scholarship

brandonandcount

(note: Brink, Heininger and Kovacs counted as scholarship players)

31! Thirty-one scholarship players with junior (19) or senior (12) eligibility, ah ah ah! Last year was 18 juniors and 15 seniors; 2010 was 14 and 11. This year there are only 11 sophomores (since few redshirted in '10 and many did last season.

38! Thirty-eight players left from the '08-'10 classes, ah ah ah! This roster is already mostly Hoke's. Show? Show.

Class of: 2012 2011 2010 2009
2005       6
2006     8 16
2007   9 11 12
2008 8 17 17 18
2009 15 17 18 22
2010 15 18 22  
2011 15 19    
2012 25      
Total on Scholarship 78 80 76 74

7! Seven receivers on last year's August roster who are now gone. Odoms, Grady and Hemingway by graduation, Stonum by action, Stokes and Williamson by volition, Terrence Robinson by unrenewsion. AHHHH!

14! Fourteen scholarship players at defensive back, ah ah ah! As opposed to nine on the roster in 2009.

44! Forty-four of the guys pictured in the Media Guide with facial hair, ah ah ah! This has to be a new record since the '70s.

Team 133 Photo Day

THE THREE STAGES OF BEARDLINESS:

kennydemensnateallspachEliottMealer

They are Demens, Allspach, and Mealer.

TEAM DREAD-FLOW 133!:

JTFloydChrisEddinsbrendangibbonsDenardRobinsonCraigRohStephenHopkins

(EDIT: Almost forgot:

JakeRyanJoeBolden.)

They are Wolverines with lions' manes sticking out of their helmets, soaring through the air in much the same way Odre Pipkins doesn't. They are: J.T. Floyd, Chris Eddins, Gibbons U PUT IT THRU THE UPRITES, Denard with something on his upper lip that shouldn't be there, Roh's left eyebrow, Roh's right eyebrow, Hopkins, the Jake (love the Jake), and Bolden. Here's some dudes trying to get into the club:

ThomasGordonjeremygallonJarrodWilsonDennisNorfleetJusticeHayessethbroekhuizen

T-Gordon, Gallon, Jarrod Wilson, Dennis Norfleet, Justice Hayes, Seth Broekhuizen.

NO LONGER PART OF TEAM DREAD-FLOW:

JoshFurman

Josh Furman.

I KNEW THERE WAS A REASON I CHOSE HIM AS MY TOTALLY UNREASONABLE NAME ON NOBODY'S LIPS TO GET ALL EXCITED ABOUT

DelonteHollowell

Delonte Hollowell. Somebody get this man a bow-tie.

Michigan Muse(nes)day Plays Predicting the Freshman Numbers Game

Michigan Muse(nes)day Plays Predicting the Freshman Numbers Game

Submitted by Seth on April 18th, 2012 at 9:24 AM

fbl-guide-2011

All-Americans and presidents: the future of ALL our recruits.

Every year during Spring Practice, because I'm exactly that kind of geek, I start trying to predict what the jersey numbers will be of incoming freshmen. This probably started back when I was still buying annual versions of the EA Sports game that they're still labeling a year off, which meant my virtual freshmen needed to be in iconic jerseys while real freshmen were in prom suits/coed naked t-shirts/whatever they're wearing these days.

This is an exercise fraught with danger, and likely to be 80% to 90% incorrect given all of the variables like current players changing numbers, walk-ons getting shoved out of the way, numbers with special meaning, and the randomness of the universe, etc. What we have to go on are the traditions of the coaching staff (for example Rodriguez was much 01.anthony.carter higher on repeating digits between units; Hoke seems more like Carr in limiting these), high school numbers, birthdays, actuary tables, and the general availability of digits.

Let's start with what's not available. I'm guessing it's unlikely that a freshman is going to receive a "Michigan Football Legend" number (so far that is just 21). I'm also giving walk-ons the benefit of the doubt if someone from another unit is already wearing their number. (Right: from SI's best college player for each number)

Numbers they can't have: 1 (Edwards scholarship goes to current players), 4 (Steve Wilson and Cam Gordon), 5 (Justice Hayes and Courtney Avery), 7 (Gardner and Hawthorne), 8 (Bellomy and J.T. Floyd), 11 (retired for Wisterts), 14 (Jack Kennedy and Josh Furman), 27 (Jon Keizer and Mike Jones), 38 (Thomas Rawls and Al Backey), 40 (Nate Allspach and Antonio Poole), 47 (retired), 48 (retired), 57 (Elliott Mealer and Frank Clark), 87 (retired), 98 (retired).

Special Teamers' numbers: You can't have two players with the same number on the field at the same time, so very rarely will you see a special teams starter's number shared with another player, else that player might not be able to play on special teams if needed. The exception here is quarterbacks (e.g. former KOS Troy Nienberg shared 10 with Clayton Richard in 2003 and '04). Special teamers who don't start don't count (e.g. Nienberg shared 6 with Victor Hobson and Alijah Bradley in '01 and '02). This year those numbers are 34 (Gibbons), 43 (Hagerup), 45 (Wile), 46 (Broekhuizen), and 54 (Jareth Glanda, long snapper and sometime immaculate receiver).

How Do the Football Legends Work Now? 21 is open on both sides of the ball.

Available on Defense Only: These are the numbers already held by scholarship players woodleysackon offense. They are unlikely to be used because Hoke doesn't seem to like repeating numbers across units: 2, 10, 12, 16, 17, 26, 28, 33, 36, 52, 56, 58, 60, 65, 75, 77, 80, 83, 89, 94.

Available on Offense Only: 3, 6, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 30, 32, 35, 37, 41, 44, 49, 55, 67, 73, 76, 88, 90, 92, 95, 97

Just a Walk-On in the way: Walk-ons who make the two deep often change their numbers; those who don't often have a scholarship player take their numbers. There are exceptions; for example Mike Kwiatkowski is working his way into the tight end rotation and it's not like anyone desires 81 that much. I left out Burzynski who's on the projected two-deep already. The rest: 13 (Alex Swieca), 19 (Charlie Zeller) 23 (Floyd Simmons), 42 (Dylan Esterline), 61 (Graham Glasgow), 69 (Erik Gunderson), 70 (Kristian Mateus), 81 (Mike Kwiatkowski), 85 (Joe Reynolds), 93 (Chris Eddins), 96 (Baquer Sayed), 99 (Paul Gyarmati).

Currently Unused (Most Likely to be taken): 9, 15, 29, 31, 39, 50, 51, 53, 59, 62, 63, 64, 66, 68, 71, 72, 74, 78, 79, 82, 84, 86, 91

So here's the dudes who need numbers:

Name Pos. # in HS Tea Leaves Best Guess
A.J. Williams TE 88 n/a 88 – Open on offense; Roh will be gone next year.
Allen Gant S 7 and 14 Father Tony wore 14 14 – Not filled with confidence re: Furman (I don't know any more than you do)
Amara Darboh WR 15 Wore 415 at Nike Camp, favorite athlete is Carmelo Anthony who wore 15 in Denver 15 - book it.
Ben Braden OL 51 Wants to play right away 51 - it's open now so why not
Blake Bars OL 67 Wore 542 at Army game 72 - Honestly I'm just assigning OT numbers.
Chris Wormley DE 47 Wore 842 at Nike camp, 44 in hoops 84 or 68 – This one has me stumped.
Dennis Norfleet RB/KR 21 Wears 2 for hoops team, wore 80 at BoMW camp. Received his Michigan offer on 2/1. Born on 2/8 21 if available, or 31 - I don't know how they'll use Legends numbers now. If freshmen can have them it's an easy pick.
Devin Funchess TE 5 and 15 No. 5 TE according to ESPN 85 - Move over Joe Reynolds.
Drake Johnson RB 2 and 18 Was a QB at first and chose 18 for Peyton Manning, then 2 for Woodson. His college # will be someone good 32 or 6 or 23 - Drake is well versed in M RB lore
Erik Magnuson OL 77 77 in US Army game, 714 at NFTC, 74 at Nike camp, 31 in hoops 78 - See Bars
James Ross LB 6 Born 6/26. Wore 34 at Intl Bowl 36 – Going out on a limb with this one.
Jehu Chesson WR 5 Wants the 1. Wore 357 at Army Bowl, 164 at NFTC 82 - with an eye on changing one day?
Jeremy Clark S 2 Born 6/29 29 - Woolfolk-ish player, birthday, open, fits.
Kyle Kalis OL 67 67 here, 67 there, 67 everywhre. 67 - Brink has it on D so no problem
Mario Ojemudia DE 53 Twitter (when he had it) was @akaRio53 53 - Another easy fit.
Matthew Godin DT 62 Was 774 at Nike, 408 at Army Combine 62 - it's available
Ondre Pipkins NT 71 Publicly says he will wear 56 for Woodley 56 - book it
Royce Jenkins-Stone LB 10 Wore 10 at Army Game. Twitter handle has 10 in it. Wore 54 at Intl Bowl 10 - seems special to him for some reason.
Sione Houma FB 35 Is a fullback. 41 or 32 or some fullbackian number
Terry Richardson CB 3 and 6 and 9 Wore 28 in Intl Bowl., #1 at UA Bowl. One of 9 kids. 9 – pretty good guess.
Tom Strobel DE 36 40 and 52 in Basektball. 63 or 93 or 86.
Willie Henry DT 74 Not much out there on him. 74 or 68 - (YMRMFSPA Mike Martin) so why not.

Guess away. If we can be 50% correct when these things are announced in late July/early August, well, we'll be really special nerds.

Class of 2011: The New Numbers

Class of 2011: The New Numbers

Submitted by Seth on July 24th, 2011 at 2:09 AM

fbl-guide-2011

(Not these)

The 2011 Football Media Guide is out, and you know of course what that means: OBSESSIVE ATTENTION TO ROSTER NUMBERS HO!

Notable non-bullets:

Kellen Jones is not on it: There are plenty of rumors on [pick your favorite message board] as to why, but I've heard there's a high probability those rumors were made up to fill the great big "I dunno." I have a query in with Brandon's office.

Christian Pace is not on it: Medical rumors seem to be true, at least for this year. Shattered dreams of Molk 2.0.

Darryl Stonum is on it: If this means anything, horray. If not, horray.

Your Football Freshmen, Now With Digits:

No. Name Pos. Ht. Wt. State
3 Russell Bellomy QB 6'3 178 TX
5 Justice Hayes RB 5'10 175 MI
8 Blake Countess DB 5'10 175 MD
20 Tamani Carter DB 5'11 175 OH
21 Raymon Taylor DB 5'10 170 MI
24 Delonte Hollowell DB 5'9 170 MI
35 Greg Brown CB 5'10 180 OH
36 Joe Kerridge# FB 6'0 239 MI
38 Thomas Rawls RB 5'10 220 MI
40 Antonio Poole LB 6'2 210 OH
44 Desmond Morgan LB 6'1 225 MI
45 Matt Wile K 6'2 210 CA
57 Frank Clark LB 6'2 210 OH
58 Chris Bryant OL 6'4 330 IL
60 Jack Miller OL 6'4 268 OH
61 Graham Glasgow# OL 6'6 316 IL
62 Dallas Williams# OL 6'3 312 MI
71 Gary Yerden# OL 6'5 328 MI
79 Tony Posada OL 6'4 330 FL
82 Chris Barnett TE 6'5 250 TX
92 Keith Heitzman DE 6'3 237 OH
95 Chris Rock DE 6'5 250 OH
97 Brennen Beyer DE 6'3 225 MI

# = walk-on

Number Changes:

Name Pos. Was Now This is not the reason:
Josh Furman S 6 14 Stokes may line up on defense maybe?
Jack Kennedy QB 25 14 Walk-ons don't count.
J.T. Floyd CB 12 18 Secret plan to make me think we still have James Rogers next year
Thomas Gordon S 15 30 Doubled the abs
Isaiah Bell LB 26 34 Isaiah 26 is 'A Song of Praise'; Isaiah 34 is 'Judgment Against the Nations.' This is a bad sign for…someone.
Terrence Talbott CB 22 37 Weird: Jake Ryan is 37 too. Maybe there's a plot to make the DBs and LBs look interchangeable to confuse opponents or something?
Marell Evans LB 9 51 Those who stay can keep their number.
Ricky Barnum OL 56 52 Joey Burzynski (2010 walk-on OL) called it
Brandon Moore TE 88 89 Because he and Craig Roh are listed as 6'2"/250 and this was really freaking Funk out.
Teric Jones RB 14 -- Maybe you need a position first

Yes, I too was totally thinking of that Seinfeld episode after Susan died. Best as I can guess here is Lloyd and Bo liked to keep one guy to a number and some of them were repeats on the other side of the ball (RR was a proponent of that long before EA Sports let you do it). Or maybe some of the 2012 commits have been promised digits?

Counting Things on Scholarship

brandonandcount

15! Fifteen scholarship seniors on the roster, ah ah ah! Also 18 juniors, 20 sophomores, and 27 guys with freshman eligibility.

42! Forty-two scholarship players not from one of the last two ('10 or '11) classes, ah ah ah! Up from 36 last year.

80! Eighty guys on scholarship, ah ah ah, counting Kovacs, Grady and Evans but not the missing fellows. Up from 76 at this time last year.

15! Fifteen scholarship players at defensive back, ah ah ah! Five of those are redshirt sophomores or older (two each from '08 and '09, and Woolfolk). Last year was 15 guys, but 7 of them freshmen. Now we have five freshmen and five sophomores, which, better?

15! Fifteen guys on the 2010 roster not on the 2011 one. That's 9 graduations, 2 non-renewed, four transfer/booted (Forcier, Cullen, Vinopal and D.J. Williamson) and one we're guessing medical. Strangely only Vinopal, the 2-star who became a freshman starter, seems to be a coaching transition loss.

12! Twelve guys pictured in the Media Guide with dreads: Richard Ash, Chris Eddins, Josh Furman, J.T. Floyd, Jeremy Gallon, Junior (Not a Junior) Hemingway, Stephen Hopkins, Martavious Odoms, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Je'Ron Stokes.

Non-Notable Non-Bullets

DevinWillCDenard

Photo day!: From his picture I think Devin Gardner is going to end up being CEO of something. Will Campbell wins the "Fell for the old 'hey everybody let's all look like we're really tough in our photos' shtick" award. Meanwhile Klingons are attempting to steal Denard's smile because it has the power create habitable, lush new planets all by itself.

Non-renewed 5ths: Michael Williams, John Ferrara, Zac Ciullo, and Kevin Leach might have had another year of eligibility, but are gone. All were expected. Sad that Mike Williams's career ends with his pre-2010 concussion. I've been hard on his play but we'll never know if he might have put it together for his last two years.

Weight Gain 2011: The player weights are unchanged from Spring but some of the freshmen are a little off from their high school weights. Of those, Tony Posada is up 15 lbs. (to 330…um), Delonte Hollowell is up to 170 (from 162), and Thomas Rawls is listed at 220 (from 214). Standard operating procedure is to consider all weight gains and losses as good things.

Gentlemen, start your dynasties.