quinn hughes artisinal ankle jelly

Quinn Hughes carries the puck up ice against Minnesota
A defenseman who draws this much attention opens up ice for the rest of the offense [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Tuesday’s loss to Notre Dame wasn’t the final nail in the coffin for Michigan’s tournament chances, but things aren’t super great when a college hockey site’s models have to be consulted to make sure the pre-comma clause isn’t mathematically impossible. Conference tournament games are treated like regular season games as far as Pairwise is concerned, and while that leaves a little room for Michigan to bolster its resume, we can get an idea how much that will matter (read: do they need to win the tournament outright) thanks to the excellent charts at College Hockey Ranked. Michigan has four remaining regular-season contests, and the most likely outcome (28.0%) derived from four straight wins is the #19 Pairwise spot. The top 16 teams get into the tournament; Michigan has a 3.6% chance of finishing the regular season #16, 0.7% chance of finishing #15, and 0.1% chance of finishing #14. In other words, it’s exceeding unlikely they’ll play their way into a position to be heartbroken by some other team that’s out of it winning their conference tournament and stealing a bid (and even that assumes Michigan wins some but not all of their conference tournament games.)

With just six points separating the teams in second (Michigan) and sixth (Michigan State) place in the conference standings and four conference games left to play, projecting Michigan’s Big Ten Tournament opponent is an exercise in futility. We do have four games from earlier this season that could help us in analyzing how Michigan might be able to go about sweeping Ohio State and Wisconsin, their next two opponents, so we’ll turn to those for insight. Sweeping two opponents consecutively will be a big task for a team that went over three months between sweeps, but we can look at a few smaller components of quality play that make it possible. It’s not entirely unlike when my ten-month-old is in his high chair and flings himself forward to grab something I definitely didn’t think he could reach on the table and I’m like, hey, that would have been fine if I ripped it into pieces but as it stands you shoving it into your mouth whole just makes me look like a shitty dad. I mean, it’s not entirely like that but it’s not entirely unlike that, either.

[Hit THE JUMP for GIFs and such]

Garrett Van Wyhe skates against Michigan State in the Great Lakes Invitational
Van Whye was excellent on faceoffs Friday night, helping Michigan play their possession-oriented game [James Coller]

What Happened? Michigan ground out a 2-1 win against #4 Ohio State in Columbus Friday night, then fell 4-2 to the Buckeyes (one goal was an empty-netter, so meh) on Saturday.

*Blank stare* Okay, yeah, context. Michigan beat Notre Dame in an outdoor game at Notre Dame Stadium January 5th for what appeared to be a win that could propel them to a second half akin to last season’s, then looked like a completely disinterested team during a rare Tuesday night game against Merrimack (the team, not the boat). Friday night’s win again left some hope for a second-half run, then Saturday night’s game… actually, Michigan didn’t look that bad Saturday night, either. There’s hope yet.

Things don’t look great from a Pairwise perspective, though. A cursory glance at the comparisons chart doesn’t reveal one big thing Michigan could do to make a move. They only have 11 games remaining and have to come as close to running the table as possible to steal some comparison points back. That would help, at least as long as the general volatility of the conference continues unabated; the top two teams, Ohio State and Minnesota, are 6-3-3 in conference play and third-place Michigan is 4-5-4. Beating Penn State in their next series (this weekend is a bye) would be a nice start, as Michigan is currently tied for the head-to-head comparison point. (If you’re looking for a Pairwise explainer, USCHO has a good one here.)

So this is another one of those years where Michigan has to win the conference tournament to earn a bid and gets matched up with Penn State, isn’t it? Sort of looks that way.

Anything to take from last weekend that might give us insight into what could happen during the stretch run? Seems like the kind of thing we should put after THE JUMP, no?

[Hit THE JUMP for weekend takeaways that might give insight into the stretch run]

The Hosts: MGoHockey Correspondent David Nasternak and Person of Great Hockey Substance Anthony Ciatti

This Podcast Has a Sponsor (but he doesn't realize it): Michigan Law Grad, check your email. Also if you're in the penalty box and need a captain to argue your case, talk to Jonathan Paul.

1. Recapping the Last Weeks

starts at 1:00

Michigan has played seven regular season games and two exhibitions, how are they doing? What have we seen when we have been able to see the games? Speaking of, we would like to be able to see more of the games, please fix this.

2. The State of the Team

starts at 21:03

We run down each group on the team and discuss while wondering if they are ahead or behind where we thought they would be. Top line and power play are looking great. Other parts have room to improve. Anthony the goalie makes the case the goalies are being scapegoated to an extent. (of course he does)

3. Sieves and the People Who Associate With Them

starts at 45:15

We talk about the Big Ten as league play kicks off! This league will be awesome this season. ND is up first, and along with OSU they don't look like they have missed a beat. Minnesota is working some things out. PSU and Wisconsin look like they might have found some goaltending, which will raise their ceilings significantly. MSU is competent once again, Danton Cole is turning things around there. Preseason prediction of all B1G teams in the top half of the NCAA is looking good.

4. We talk predictions!

starts at 1:00:06

Where will Michigan finish in the B1G? Can they make the tournament?

MUSIC

  • NHL on ESPN Theme
  • NHL 94 (Genesis) Intro Theme
  • Blades of Steel Theme
  • "Brass Bonanza!"—The Hartford Whalers
  • Ice Hockey (NES) theme

THE USUAL LINKS

You need a Predator on your defense. Man, I'd take a Red Wing.