pairwise ranking

Last Weekend. Michigan swept Michigan State right out of Yost. In fact, they shut Michigan State right out of Yost. Strauss Mann and the Michigan defense had another great weekend not only keeping pucks out of the net, but mostly keeping the Spartans out of high-danger areas. The Wolverines also controlled both aspect of special teams. Michigan tallied three power-play goals on eight man advantages. They also locked down Michigan State, forcing them to go oh-for-the-weekend (0/8) on their power plays.  Johnny Beecher tallied a couple of even-strength goals to lead the offensive production. For all of their efforts, Michigan Hockey has now won a semi-final trip to…Columbus. The Buckeyes massacred the Badgers on Friday, 9-1, and finished the sweep on Saturday with a 2-1 OT win. Sounds like it is time for a…Chart Table!

[After THE JUMP: a photo, actually (and then a table)]

What Is This? The Rooting Guide is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack! A couple of year ago, I wrote about the depths of college hockey and how they will impact Michigan in the stretch run to the NCAA Tournament. Since March 2018, they have mostly been irrelevant, as Michigan basically needed to win anything and everything to have a chance…UNTIL NOW! Well, kinda. They still might need to win the B10 Tournament in order to get into the NCAAs, BUT they are technically 16th in the Pairwise Ranking and if the NCAA decides to not give the AHA an auto bid (this won’t happen), then they’re technically in right now! Since the AHA will get an auto bid and Michigan is .0079 out of 12th and .001 ahead of 19th, maybe we should look at these minute details. First things first: the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan/Michigan State Corsi Table

So, what do we make of all of this? There are three 50/50 games and one MSU even-strength domination. Michigan controlled Game 1 at Yost back in November and then collapsed in the last 20-30 minutes, and the Spartans came roaring back for an improbable win. Games 2-4 were mostly multiple-score games that were never particularly close. State won at Munn in Game 2, and Michigan shredded the Spartans with great finishing in Games 3 and 4 (at Munn and LCA, respectively). Michigan has been a more consistent team in 2020, so they should be favored at home next weekend. Still, let’s check out the Eight Factors.

[After THE JUMP: Eight Factors!]

Breaking News: Herm Edwards is also Arizona State’s hockey coach* [AZCentral.com]

*He isn't, but does he know that?

Arizona State Preview

Things Michigan Should Try to Do Against Arizona State:

1.Fix the PP. Michigan's power play is a paltry 46th in the country. At some point, the Wolverines are going to face a team that limits their chances (a la OSU), and they're going to need to get man-advantage goals. This is the perfect time to work on it. The Sun Devils average 16+ minutes/game in the penalty box. They have an average kill rate. Michigan should have some power-play opportunities this weekend. They may want to try a few new wrinkles.

2. Be More Aggressive on the PK. So, also stay out of the box, but if you must take penalties, maybe use these chances to be more active in pressing the puck. Michigan has been dreadful on the penalty kill all season, and ASU has an anemic power play at 12%. Use this time to practice killing penalties instead of just surviving them.

3. Bury this team. This is not a good hockey team. Look at almost any statistic or metric and they're middling at best, bottom-end at worst. ASU's top scorer is a defenseman. They have two road wins (over Holy Cross and...Michigan Tech?). They've also been bombed by Penn State, Boston University, and Providence. Michigan has done the hard work (sweeping ND) and clawed back to an at-large bid. They need to finish off this run and set up a Big Ten Tournament where they're playing for a seed line instead of barely qualifying.

Last Thoughts. I'm excited to see ASU. They're a new team to D1 college hockey, and this is their first trip to Yost. Part of the fun of college sports is seeing a bunch of different teams in non-conference play. I'd never seen Vermont before they came to Yost this past Fall.  Hopefully, the Sun Devils can continue to build a program and become a nationally competitive team...after this weekend, of course.

[After THE JUMP: surveying the B1G landscape, who to root for around the country, and...Skip-Bo?]