north dakota

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information.

What just happened (TL;DR): After a couple of periods to forget, Michigan played their best third period of the season against an elite opponent in a big time game. After a little puck luck, Michigan’s jumbled line of Garrett Schifsky, TJ Hughes, and Dylan Duke assembled the prettiest goal of the season at the most crucial time of the season in what would be the game-winner. Michigan came from behind, flipped the third period on its head, shut down their opponent, and then held the fort to close the game. Who’s breaking narratives, now?

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

Forward Notes.

-For the first two periods, Michigan couldn’t get much going. They barely had the puck during the opening half of the beginning frame. While they finally got some possession, they over-passed, and didn’t just shoot the puck on a beatable goalie. In the second period, they started doing so and got rewarded early. Once the third period started, the Wolverines were flying, dominating puck possession, shots, and attempts.They registered the first nine shots of the third period. Each period seemed to bring improvement with offensive creation. That’s what you want to see.

-Two of Michigan’s goal resulted from just throwing the puck on net. Both goals were deflections in front of the crease to open shooters at the side of the net. Steve Holtz fired the first one that Frank Nazar scooped up, beating Ludvig Persson. Tyler Duke fired the second one, hitting Garrett Schifsky on its way to TJ Hughes’s stick, giving Michigan a 3-2 lead. Another point in my previews was just getting pucks to Persson and making him make a lot of saves. Once the shot total started rising, the goals started flowing.

-Perhaps the prettiest goal of the season was the fourth and game-winner. Garrett Schifsky made a slick pass ahead to TJ Hughes, who softly sauced a pass across the low slot to Dylan Duke, who smoothly fired the puck in the net. Michigan bounced, jumbled, and blendered their lines seemingly all night. While there seemed to be a bit of discombobulation at times, it paid off watching the goal hit the back of the net.

-Michigan looked very much locked down for the first couple of periods. They overpassed a ton in the first. They also just didn’t create enough in the second. Major props to the coaching staff and players for figuring some things out and dominating the third period.

Defense Notes.

-Early in the first period, the Wolverines made the Big Mistake. For two periods it was the difference and on track to being what ended their season. On a 2v3, North Dakota made a simple scissor move, crossing their forwards upon entrance. Instead of just racing back to protect the house, Ethan Edwards chased Abram Wiebe to the boards. Marshall Warren did as well (same with Garrett Schifsky, who I don’t fault as much due to circumstances), leaving no one on Hunter Johannes streaking into the slot. Johannes fired into the top corner to open the scoring. A simple switch, an extra man back…didn’t matter. It ended with North Dakota’s best chance of the night.

-After that though, Michigan was really, really good defensively. They didn’t allow much, even less from dangerous areas, and pretty much locked down the third period, sans a play or two. Not too bad. Maybe they just needed to get one out of their system?

-Marshall Warren, again, was really good. He got back a few times to eliminate potential breakaways. He was strong and physical around the net and on the boards. He’s really developed into the player Michigan hoped they were getting last summer.

-Seamus Casey apparently took a big hit in the first period and never returned. That…is really bad news. I have no idea what the reason is, but not playing in the final two periods is not what we need to hear this time of year. The good news is that Luca Fantilli and Steve Holtz both played pretty well in his absence. It’s not often we’ve seen both of them play as much as they did tonight…but here we are. And we’re still standing!

-This will be known as the Keaton Pehrson Game. The former Michigan Wolverine registered two assists and scored a goal. I joked in the preview that he would score the overtime winner that would end Michigan’s season. Well, instead, he helped both teams. Two previous times in his career, he had a two point night. On Friday, he registered two assists for the Fighting Sioux and deflected a puck into the net for Michigan. His deflected goal came off of a play by Ludvig Persson hitting him with the puck. We’ll call it a three point night…the largest scoring night of his collegiate career.

NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional Final

Saturday, March 26, 2016

North Dakota 5, Michigan 2

1st period

Caggiula goal, North Dakota

UND 1 UM 0 EV 18:54 Assists: Stecher

Nieves notices Kile skating toward the slot but not the defender nearest him and has the puck knocked away. Stecher recovers the puck he knocked away and taps a pass ahead to Caggiula. From there, it's off to the races through the neutral zone.

Here's how Michigan's defensive zone looks as Caggiula crosses the blue line: one defenseman—Martin—back, and so only one man to beat.

Caggiula takes a fairly harmless shot from the high slot, one which Racine stops easily. The shot itself isn't that dangerous, and the only reason I can see taking it is Caggiula either assumes he can't get around Martin because he's gapped up well or he's assuming he's going to get a rebound; he's right about the rebound.

Martin tries to get a stick out and almost deflects the puck, but it does (barely) clear it. Racine's leaning back but ultimately unable to push up and back before the puck's in the net.

[After THE JUMP: the last six goals of the season]

Essentials

Yes, I found a college hockey line.

BASICS

North Dakota is a version of Michigan that plays in a much better league. They are 31-6-4 on the year, 19-4-1 in NCHC play, and have generally bombed opponents. Their top line features three guys who are all at least +38. Brock Boeser, Drake Caggiula, and Nick Schmaltz are their version of CCM, and while they aren't quite as prolific offensively they probably would have been if they got to play Michigan's schedule. Boeser is their Connor. The prolific freshman had 26-28-54 this year.

Here's a slight difference: North Dakota is really good at defense. So they're a version of Michigan that doesn't make you want to stab stabby stab stab.

COMMON OPPONENTS

North Dakota split against Wisconsin, somehow, and swept MSU 3-1 and 4-1.

OFFENSE

Boeser is also a first round pick of a Canadian NHL club

North Dakota is 7th in scoring at 3.6 goals per game. The aforementioned "CBS" line drives much of the play; there's a solid second line and then you get a number of guys who have lines like 6-4-10 and 9-6-15—scrappers.  There's a huge dropoff in +/- after the first line. If Michigan had a line that could be described as a "checking" line this would be a clear situation in which they should be deployed, but Bryan Rust ain't walking through that door.

The scoring down the roster gets even a little shallower when you consider that a guy like Luke Johnson (10-10-20) has half of his goals on the power play and is even on the season. This is not a team that should overwhelm Michigan's bottom six.

Do not sleep on the North Dakota defensemen. The impression I gathered from yesterdays game is they are not wilting flowers who pick up second assists by accident. They are supremely confident on the puck, willing to take major chances in their own defensive zone to break forechecking pressure and maintain possession. And they achieve this a shocking percentage of the time. The ice tilted towards Northeastern's goal in large part because of the D corps's ability to handle the puck. They have five different D with at least 15 points and get a bunch of goals out of the defense corps. Junior Troy Stecher leads the way with 8-19-27. He's not Werenski, but all of their guys are big and skilled.

The CBS line is very capable of the tic-tac-toe goals we've seen Michigan score big chunks of the year. Preventing the kind of odd man rushes that Notre Dame deployed to score their first goal yesterday is a major key. Can Michigan accomplish that? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

DEFENSE

Again with the defensemen: North Dakota is #3 in scoring defense at just 1.85 goals per game. They split time between Matt Hrynkiw and Cam Johnson in goal, settling on Johnson midseason. That decision has paid off; Johnson's .934 save percentage is 7th nationally.

Part of that is North Dakota's ability to prevent quality scoring chances; part of the GAA is the fact that North Dakota is massively outshooting opponents. Their even-strength Corsi of 56% is fourth nationally. (Michigan's at 52%, FWIW.) Opponents are averaging just under 25 shots a game. North Dakota plays most of their games in the attacking end.

SPECIAL TEAMS

North Dakota's surprisingly meh on the power play, just 21st of 60 teams. Their penalty kill, however, is very good—6th and that's before you factor in their 8 short-handed goals. (Those are spread relatively evenly over the roster, FWIW.)

Let's try this again: Michigan's rampant power play is #1 nationally at 32%, having scored on an amazing 17 of 29 opportunities over their last six seven games. Notre Dame, of course, did not take one single penalty during Friday's game. If Michigan wants to get chippy early, that might not be the worst idea.

A FEELING OTHER THAN TERROR?

Nope. North Dakota was extremely impressive in a 6-2 dismantling of previously red-hot Northeastern yesterday. That Northeastern team just swept Notre Dame, who Michigan struggled against for two solid periods before getting a grip on the game in the third. That line above is 2:1 in favor of North Dakota, and that feels about right.

The nature of the Northeastern win allowed the Fightin' Blanks to rotate four lines for most of the game. Meanwhile Michigan had to ditch the fourth line and heavily double-shift CCM; they also played a (mercifully brief) overtime period. UND will be fresher. That could be a pivotal difference.

This game is likely to go one of two ways: a repeat of the Northeastern game yesterday as Michigan finds out that playing a 19-4-1 NCHC team is not like playing Penn State, at all, or a relatively even battle where Michigan's speed and skill is enough to disrupt the puck-moving skills of the North Dakota defensemen. Or they could play both of those in one game, as they did yesterday.

The former is either a sad blowout or a rear-guard action like the one led by Tiny Jesus in 2011. The latter is likely to come down to which top line can put together more mindblowing goals, and whether Michigan's defense corps gives away a goal or two by doing something awful.

Either way North Dakota is an obvious favorite. But, hey, plinko is in our favor this time, especially if there are a bunch of penalties.

[Patrick Barron]