mike debord

Resources: My charting, IU game notes, IU roster, Bill C profile, CFBstats

I respect Indiana. When we talk about the vast ethical shortcomings of our division rivals, Indiana is our version of nisi Vanderbiltum. Kevin Wilson, their best hire since Mallory, built a modern, terrifying stretch zone & bomb machine that tore up Michigan's 2015 defense on the ground. And IU fired him immediately when concerns surfaced about player safety in Wilson's tough-guy program culture, despite what that would mean from a competitive standpoint.

Indiana also took the extra, and unnecessary, step of hiring Mike DeBord to run their offense.

Tell me that's not how every college football program ought to act?

The film: I tried to choose another defense with linebackers athletic enough to try to man up IU's slot receivers and pressure the quarterback, since so many IU opponents this year were content to sit back and let sophomore QB Peyton Ramsey pick away. I had to go back to early October, but I found a ranked Big Ten East matchup with some team Michigan hasn't played. This game ended 26-49 but competitive until well into the 4th quarter. In fact IU's kicker missed a 50-yard field goal at the end of the 3rd that would have put the Hoosiers within 6 points, ground that might have been covered by any of several wide open bombs that Ramsey overthrew. It got away from them in the end, but still, IU got to run their offense in a hostile environment against a team that likes to blitz, and that's why I chose this game. Why, what reason did you think?

Personnel: Bad news guys: No Whop.

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The roster is very spread and features the slot receivers in hopes of running them into space for YAC. Slot Luke Timian, the multi-transfer walk-on, missed this game, however he was legitimately ahead of name-fave Whop Philyor before the latter lost most of this year to a high ankle sprain. Whop's role has been filled by J-Shun Harris, the exciting little bugger who's spent most of the last four years recovering from his own ailments, plus freshman ATH Taylor Reese, and the rest of the RB depth chart he's shared with. All of these guys have more targets than Grant Perry.

The OL are mostly Frey recruits who barely crested 300; C Nick Linder grad transferred from Miami (yes THAT Miami) and took over midseason from (and still cedes snaps to) last year's starting C Hunter Littlejohn. Littlejohn is vastly more likely to screw up his assignment, but Linder seems much more likely to screw up everyone else's. RT Brandon Knight and LG Wes Martin are good pass blockers. RG Simon Stepaniak is more volatile. LT Coy Cronk has been starting since he was a true freshman, and got worked like one even with plenty of RB and TE help. That may have been a result of going against an excellent young DE the announcers liked whose name was Chase, but if Cronk's weakness is all-conference-ish edge rushers named Chase I've got bad news for him this week. Cronk's also had a hard time staying healthy. IU tried Stepaniak, then a backup guard, then a 6-8 freshman when Cronk has to step out. A quick review of the last box score shows this still happens.

WR Nick Westbrook is a major threat because he can adjust so well to deep balls; fellow experienced WR Donavan Hale does not, and is in the process of getting passed by the kid, WR Ty Fryfogle, an underrated athlete and ultra-rare escapee from the black hole of Mississippi. Tight ends are non-blocking, bigged-up WR types; freshman Peyton Hendershot will chunk you on a seam route once a game but TE Austin Dorris is just a short range guy. The slots are the main method of moving the ball.

Nominal running backs are just that, except the 20% of the time that they're slot receivers. With Morgan Ellison out all year large freshman RB Stevie Scott gets most of their carries; top backup RB Mike Majette is a 3rd down specialist with more receptions than handoffs. 3rd stringer RB Ronnie Walker, another freshman, has just 12 touches in the last five weeks.

[the rest of the breakdown, after THE JUMP]

10/14/2017 – Michigan 27, Indiana 20 (OT) – 5-1, 2-1 Big Ten

[Bryan Fuller]

I am at stage five. I have passed through denial, anger, bargaining, and depression. And here we are: acceptance. Michigan is not very good this year. I accept that they are rebuilding.

Well... wait. Let me rephrase that. 60% of Michigan is righteous. 20% is questionable but encouraging. 20% is a deep, black pit of infinite depth that you fall through for hours at a time. The walls murmur foul, unspeakable red-zone stats. You yell "I DON'T BELIEVE RED ZONE OFFENSE IS MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT FROM OVERALL OFFENSE"; the walls ignore you. Occasionally a gust of wind buffets you from below, braking your descent. It doesn't really matter, though. Terminal velocity or soon-to-reach terminal velocity are functionally identical when you are dropping forever in an inky expanse of nothing, waiting for the sickening crunch that will never come except when it does about every 365 days.

Woe! Woe! Fire and flame, death and brimstone! Woe. Dolorous woe.

...is what you might have said like 15 years ago when this stuff still had the capacity to hurt you. Now? Nah. Some Indiana fan sent me a picture of scoreboard from The Horror on Saturday and I just snorted. This is no longer a fanbase that considers 7-5 the "Year of Infinite Pain," as this site did way back in the ancient past. Michigan's going to lose some more games this year and end up in Florida on New Year's Day.

That's more or less fine. They return something like 21 starters next year, give or take QB. This depends on whether or not Brandon Peters can humorously conk John O'Korn in the head and sneakily don his jersey at some point in the next few weeks.

-------------------------------

You've probably figured it out already but the righteous bits are the run defense,  the pass defense, and special teams. The questionable-but-encouraging bit is a ground game that appears to be waking up and putting things together. And the black, infinite, inky pit is the passing offense.

O'Korn's 10-for-20, 58 yard performance was actually worse than last year's Indiana game, when he managed 59 yards on 16 throws. Michigan completed three passes for four yards in the second half—two of them screens—and did not even think about involving O'Korn in their attempts to put away the game. It got so bad that on one of Michigan's few downfield attempts of the fourth quarter that Official Journalists were barely concealing their bewilderment:

Zach Gentry was open. O'Korn threw into double coverage. Gentry tossed his arms up in the air at the end of his route.

— Dan Murphy (@DanMurphyESPN) October 14, 2017

Very same, Zach Gentry. A quick glance at the photo that leads this column will confirm how very, very covered Kekoa Crawford was. And yet.

Meanwhile Harbaugh almost lost his mind on the sideline when Michigan pulled out a shovel pass they hadn't put on film, saw it break for a first down and more, and then had it called back because O'Korn didn't get the snap off in time. Harbaugh's clearly toning down his sideline behavior this year after the PF in Columbus and the supposed extra focus on coach behavior; that was a moment where he just about relapsed. But did not!

Also this:

somehow not an INT [Fuller]

So here we are. That's three of four O'Korn games with extended playing time where he's been horrible. I have no idea what happened against Purdue, but if you're asking me to project future performance it's more in line with the last two weeks than the outlier. Teams are now preparing for a guy who's only good when he breaks the pocket, and there goes the efficiency of that gambit.

It's bad, man. It's so bad that Michigan spent half of its dropbacks presenting O'Korn with just two guys—or even one—in a downfield pattern. The interception he threw at a dominated Eddie McDoom was third and seven; Michigan had outside receivers run fades. Nobody else was in a pattern. O'Korn somehow still threw the wrong fade, choosing the 5'11" guy being checked by Indiana's best cornerback. Michigan dumbed down their passing offense to an extraordinary extent in this game, and their quarterback still couldn't keep up.

Game over, man. Game over.

It turns out there is a difficulty level too hard on the Jim Harbaugh Quarterback Constructor video game, and it's "Houston transfer who lost his job as a sophomore." Noted, and forgiven. Michigan's desperate scramble for quarterbacks upon Harbaugh's arrival turned up a strike in Jake Rudock, and a... not strike in O'Korn.

Michigan still has their goals in front of them, and maybe O'Korn has another Purdue game in him somewhere. I doubt it, personally, but we'd all written off the Brown Jug in 2008 just in time for Nick Sheridan to put up 200 passing yards in a 29-6 win. You can just barely cobble together a justification for continuing with O'Korn for another week, because a road night game at Penn State is next and we don't want to send our baby lamb to slaughter.

But win or lose against PSU, it's hard to imagine Michigan not taking Brandon Peters out for a test drive against Rutgers. Because Michigan's future is extraordinarily bright if they can find a QB. Even if O'Korn turns it around he's not going to be part of that future. Meanwhile it's hard to imagine production worse than what they've currently got. Here is where people say "it can always be worse": I submit that it cannot. Two point nine yard an attempt and two shoulda-been interceptions, people.

Game over. Insert freshman to continue.

AWARDS

go go go go [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

you're the man now, dog

#1 Karan Higdon. Yeah, maybe several defensive players had better individual games in chart-world. All of those guys reinforce each other, though. Higdon's efforts were emphatically not reinforced by Michigan's passing game and he still put up Michigan's first 200 yard RB game since Mike freakin' Hart. He earned all 25 of Michigan's overtime yards, showed legit deep speed on his long touchdown, and ground out countless YAC without much, if anything, in the way of a missed read.

#2(t) Rashan Gary and Mo Hurst. Gary's 2.5 TFLs coulda shoulda been 4.5; he was robbed of a couple more sack by bloody circumstance but for the first time felt like an omnipresent terror. Meanwhile Hurst continued being Hurst, repeatedly whipping guys and getting pressure directly up the middle. The downgrade when both gents were out on the first IU touchdown drive was obvious. Both guys get two points, because I want them to have these points.

#3 Lavert Hill, Brandon Watson, and David Long. Michgian's CB crew all but erased Simmie Cobbs, and Hill turned in a Jourdan Lewis-esque INT. Most completions were to guys they were not in coverage on. Also: I mean, 40 yards for Cobbs. Get it.

Honorable mention: Chase Winovich wasn't far off his DL mates. Devin Bush turned in another very good outing, albeit one without fireworks. Ty Isaac chipped in eight productive carries. The OL was excellent on the ground and gave up zero sacks... narrowly.

KFaTAotW Standings.

8: Devin Bush (#1 Florida, T2 Cincinnati, T2 Air Force, #1 Purdue)
5: Chase Winovich(#1 Air Force, #2a Purdue), Mo Hurst (#1 MSU, #2(T), Indiana) 
3: Mason Cole (#1, Cincinnati), Ty Isaac (#2, Florida, #3 Cincinnati), Lavert Hill(#2 MSU, T3 Indiana), Karan Higdon (#1 Indiana)
2: Quinn Nordin (#3 Florida, #3 Air Force), John O'Korn (#2 Purdue), Rashan Gary(T2 Indiana).   
1: Khaleke Hudson (T2 Cincinnati), Tyree Kinnel (T2 Cincinnati), Mike McCray(T2 Air Force), Sean McKeon(T3 Purdue), Zach Gentry (T3 Purdue), Brad Robbins(#3 MSU), Brandon Watson (T3 Indiana), David Long (T3 Indiana).

Who's Got It Better Than Us Of The Week

Michigan busts out a new counter look on a fourth-quarter drive, running it three times on a five-play drive that ended with a 59-yard Higdon touchdown. Don't stop:

Karan Higdon up the middle and ... Karan Higdon is gone. @UMichFootball makes it 20-10. pic.twitter.com/bx99KX2D3u

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 14, 2017

Honorable mention: Michigan wins the game with a goal-line stand from the two. Higdon bounces outside for an OT touchdown. Higdon bounces outside for a first-half touchdown.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

John O'Korn throws to a double-covered Kekoa Crawford instead of finding the other guy on a two man route. That guy, Zach Gentry, was open for a 40-yard catch and run touchdown. Also he was the only other guy in a route.

Honorable mention: Indiana breaks off a punt return that gets them to overtime; various absurd calls after the mean man yelled at the refs but especially the Cam Cheesman "hold" that was critical for IU's tying FG drive; Michigan picks up a bunch of legitimate penalties, including PFs against Kekoa Crawford and Josh Metellus (unless Drake Harris is on the punt return team).

[After THE JUMP: How can Peters be behind this guy?]

Previously: Indiana Defense

I know yesterday's post was a little grim, so here's some uplifting news. Guess who Tom Allen hired to effectively replace Kevin Wilson as the man in charge of Indiana's offense? Surely an up-tempo spread guru, right? Someone who could keep the chaos alive, right? At least a creative young mind to continue giving the Hoosiers an edge against more talented teams, right?

Wrong. They hired Mike DeBord. Yes, the guy who called zone left on the first play of every damn game, eked out a half-decent offense at Michigan despite NFL talent everywhere, and was nearly involved in not one but two top-ten upset losses to Appalachian State. You know, the guy Tennessee cast off because he wasn't good enough to be on this year's coaching staff. That Mike DeBord.

For all of Michigan's issues, Indiana ranks seven spots behind them in the S&P+ offense rankings. While Indiana's defense is solid, Michigan's is a rampaging hellbeast. Even on the road, even after last week's sludgefart, even after losing their starting quarterback, Michigan should still have the edge in this game because the matchup on this side of the ball is going to skew heavily in their favor.

Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

While there are no changes to Michigan's side, there are a number of notes on Indiana's lineup. The Hoosiers finally decided to bench erratic quarterback Richard Lagow in favor of redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey last week after flipping between the two for four games. True freshman running back Morgan Ellison has taken command of an underwhelming backfield-by-committee situation even though glorified third-down back Mike Majette is still listed atop the depth chart. Wideout Donavan Hale, who's already replacing an injured player in Nick Westbrook, is questionable with an injury; if he can't go he'll be replaced by redshirt freshman Taysir Mack.

Right tackle Brandon Knight is back in the lineup; he entered the season at less than 100% and rested for last week's blowout of Charleston Southern. The right guard spot has flipped between Simon Stepaniak and Mackenzie Nworah and that situation is clearly unsettled; Delroy Baker, who'd rather ineffectively replaced Knight in the lineup early in the season, got snaps at both guard spots in addition to right tackle last week. There's also been rotation at center, where redshirt sophomore Hunter Littlejohn has ceded in-game snaps to true freshman Harry Crider, though he's yet to miss a start.

If you're getting the impression Indiana has had some offensive line problems, you're onto something.

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Let's see if this is a spread...

...yup, can confirm.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? IU hasn't changed their zone-heavy approach from when Greg Frey was in charge of the linemen. They'll mix in the occasional power; they tried one or two against PSU, got stuffed, and shelved it.

Hurry it up or grind it out? I don't think I was alone in expecting IU to slow down from their ludicrous speed Wilson-led offenses. Instead, DeBord has kept up the tempo; the Hoosiers are fourth in adjusted tempo. In the Penn State game, the BTN had to cut multiple replays short and still missed the beginning of several plays.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]