Preview 2014: Defensive End

Preview 2014: Defensive End

Submitted by Brian on August 27th, 2014 at 12:00 PM

Podcast 6.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line.

A note before we start: this preview relies heavily on the defensive UFRs of last year because there’s a convenient numerical system that does a decent job of summing up a defensive player’s contributions. One caveat: the system is generous to defensive linemen and harsh to defensive backs, especially cornerbacks. A +4 for a defensive end is just okay; for a cornerback it’s outstanding.

Depth Chart
STRONG DE Yr. NOSE TACKLE Yr. 3-TECH Yr. WEAK DE Yr.
Brennen Beyer Sr. Ryan Glasgow So.*# Willie Henry So.* Frank Clark Sr.
Taco Charlton So. Ondre Pipkins Jr. Chris Wormley So.* Mario Ojemudia Jr.
Henry Poggi Fr.* Bryan Mone Fr. Maurice Hurst Fr.* Lawrence Marshall Fr.

It is time for Michigan to kick some ass on defense, and if they are going to do so it starts here: Michigan has two veteran, quality seniors playing defensive end spots they can hack this year. Both can really play; neither has broken through such that many people believe this.

It is go time for these gentlemen. Victory or death!

WEAKSIDE DEFENSIVE END

Rating: 5

BEFORE PSU                                                          AFTER

tom-brady-combine[1]          image

hell yes I'm recycling this joke, because it was also Frank Clark's season

One of the more broadly correct bits of last year's preview was this section, which asked everyone to pump the breaks on the FRANK CLARK hype train:

The distance from Frank Clark 2012 to what he's supposed to be this year is immense. Too immense. I have to concede significant improvement to the chatter, but something along the lines of Tim Jamison (as a junior: 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks) would be a massive step forward.

Clark racked up 12 TFLs and 4.5 sacks. Self high five. I was broadly correct.

But though the stats and overall Tim Jamison-esque B+ season were accurate, the shape of that season is really promising. Clark started the year making little impact against MAC teams; he ended it by straight-up whipping Brandon Scherff and CJ Fiedorowicz en route to his second career game with a double-digit positive UFR score. He was a C at best to start; by the end he was an A-.

[After the JUMP: Frank Clark beasts up, fitting Beyer into the front, DEATH STARE 2014]

Preview 2013: Defensive End

Preview 2013: Defensive End

Submitted by Brian on August 28th, 2013 at 2:39 PM

Previously: Podcast 5.0, The Story, Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End and Friends, Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle.

A note before we start: this preview relies heavily on the defensive UFRs of last year because there’s a convenient numerical system that does a decent job of summing up a defensive player’s contributions. One caveat: the system is generous to defensive linemen and harsh to defensive backs, especially cornerbacks. A +4 for a defensive end is just okay; for a cornerback it’s outstanding.

Depth Chart
STRONG DE Yr. NOSE TACKLE Yr. 3-TECH Yr. WEAK DE Yr.
Keith Heitzman So.* Quinton Washington Sr.* Jibreel Black Sr. Frank Clark Jr.
Chris Wormley Fr.* Ondre Pipkins So. Willie Henry Fr.* Mario Ojemudia So.
Matt Godin Fr.* Richard Ash Jr.* Ryan Glasgow Fr.*# Taco Charlton Fr.

Strongside Defensive End

Rating: 2

um151_thumb[1]

This is a two-or-three-way battle that will last into the season. The tentative guy at the top of the depth chart is redshirt sophomore KEITH HEITZMAN [recruiting profile], who backed up Craig Roh last year and was… well, pretty blah. He got crushed inside too often to have done well, and did freshman things like blow up the QB on speed options instead of stringing out to make the quarterback make a tough decision. I didn't actually grab a positive highlight from him last year, and I usually make a point to clip out something from a player I haven't seen do thing X before. His only good game in UFR was against Minnesota; most of the rest of the year he was around –1.

That's not to write him off. Heitzman was a low-rated recruit (actually a Vandy decommit) scooped up in the first-year Hoke blitz who needed to bulk up from the 240 pounds he was listed at as a recruit. Those guys usually take time. Now at 280, Heitzman is better equipped to hold up against the pounding.

Now that he's older and larger, expect plugging. He is the platonic opposite of Jake Ryan. Hoke:

Tell us about Heitzman.

"Keith doesn't do anything flashy. He just gets his job done. He's just truly one of those lunch pail guys who goes to work every day. Doesn't say much. Doesn't talk much. Just goes out and plays."

I… I've got nothing else here. I scoured the site for something interesting someone might have said about him, came up with that quote and a couple near-identical ones from last season (Q: What is Heitzman doing to get more playing time? A: Getting better). Now I'm out. Heitzman remains something of a mystery.

The bet here is an unremarkable season with a lot of platooning. Heitzman will play a lot of running downs, get pulled on passing downs (Black will take over as another WDE moves into the lineup), hold up decently, and get a lot of half-points in UFR for constricting holes. The upside here is low—at least for this year.

imageimageimage

HAIR ZOOM 2013

Heitzman's main competition is CHRIS WORMLEY [recruiting profile], who was in line to receive snaps at three-tech last year when he blew out his ACL in fall camp. A year removed from that, Wormley is still shedding the injury tentativeness that comes with the territory. He is also growing out a ferociously ragged afro, because someone has to take over for Elliott Mealer's interesting hair. A salute to Chris Wormley!

What Wormley brings is hugeness. Ask Hoke:

"Number one, he's huge. He's a big guy," Hoke said. "He's done a nice job coming back from rehab, and probably a better job from the mental side of it. Chris has that potential to be an awfully good football player for us."

He has excellent athleticism attached to said hugeness. He's listed at 6'4", 289, and that looks to be almost all muscle. There was a lot of debate about him as a recruit, with a lack of high school production attributed to motor causing a split between "he's a top 100 kid" (24/7) to "he's a three-star" (Rivals). Ace was actually on the negative side of things:

Wormley's best way to get penetration was to simply run right around his blocker, and while this was nice to see in terms of evaluating his quickness, it brings up another point of concern—how is a 6'6", 270-pound Michigan-bound DE not completely flattening the 6'2", 225-pound offensive tackle across from him with malicious regularity? Again, motor wasn't the issue, but instead pad level; Wormley can get low on occasion, but several times he stood right up off the snap and let the tackle get right into him, turning him into a non-factor.

The fact that he was going to play early at a spot where Michigan had a couple of quality veterans in Black and Campbell is a step towards the top end of his evaluations. Mattison said he was "very talented" and "very smart" and is shedding the tentativeness brought on by the injury:

The thing that he's now showing that he didn't show in the spring is complete trust that he's 100%. So now he's back to turning it loose at different phases. He's got to do it every day. He's got to do it every play. But I don't think there's ever any thought in his mind anymore of, 'Oh, my knee.' "

Assuming Wormley's had a year to work out the kinks in his technique (Certainty Principle), he should be essentially a co-starter with Heitzman quickly. From there, performance will dictate playing time. You are rooting for Wormley to grab the job strongly, as he's the guy with large upside.

[After THE JUMP: Omar comin'? Depth! DEATH STARE 2013. TACO JUMPS OVER THINGS 2013]

Dear Diary Rolls Old School

Dear Diary Rolls Old School

Submitted by Seth on March 8th, 2013 at 9:52 AM

burkeskate 426419_2865209485213_1912395564_n

Fruits of the photoshop thread

The weekend respite from blasé hockey brought back a sorely missed tradition: goal-by-goal analysis. MGoBlueline picked up where Center Ice left off, and collects the Diarist of the Week; 200 points to Gryffindor. A sampling:

3213MichiganvsFerrisStateHighlights1-3_zpsb3b7f230

Copp makes a truly spectacular pass through Guptill that ends up right on the tape of Lynch's stick. Lynch is now all alone in the high slot facing a goaltender who is going to have to move side-to-side to stop a shot.

3213MichiganvsFerrisStateHighlights1-4_zpsb3131ac0

Lynch doesn't hesitate, roofing a shot over the goaltender's glove that makes his Gatorade bottle jump.

By now, yes, everybody knows that Ferris got a free breakaway when they put a 7th man on the ice and nobody noticed. I remind you that the Penguins once spent over 90 important seconds of an NHL Finals elimination game with too many men on the ice and didn't get flagged. I can only surmise that this is legal to do against teams I root for.

LSAClassof2000 has continued to put together short stats-based diaries with cats at the bottom. This week he went into Big Ten scoring offense since 2000. Since so many different coaches and systems have come through during this time, I'm not sure what aggregating by school really does—scoring offense is probably the most 'duh' statistic available to fans, and having Nebraska in a percent of total calculation is just fruitless. Break it up by seasons and tempo-free stats and we're talking—I'd like to know how good, say, 2010 was compared to 2012 Ohio State.

The Blockhams this week tried a little genetic experiment, which as an amateur evolutionary biologist I should warn you that you'd better isolate a lot of genes or else you're as likely to get a too-small, powerless, nerve-pinch-susceptible swimmer with the power to make Tennessee fans deranged by mere mention of his name.

Etc. A sense of entitlement fails you at Penn State and undersells beating MSU, however I caution not to underrate the benefits of that feeling like you can just trust your team will win because that is a low simmering awesome feeling that can make entire weeks happy, and expecting too little will just make you numb. THE LAST FINAL REMAINING SCHEDULES FINAL FINAL by GOLBOGM. Wallpaper by jonvalk.

Best of the Board

IT’S ALMOST LIKE THE SEC CAN ONLY WIN WHEN THEY BLATANTLY CHEAT

A decade ago ESPN realized the power of fan polls to drive passions and traffic when its Page 2 ran a sports-wide uniform contest. One by one the greats—Red Wings red, Tigers white, and finally the maize and blue went down to the ugliest Broncos uniform in history. How? Some fans found a way to game the system. Now a guy whose claim to fame is he’s the Heisman winner’s favorite receiver is doing the same through the college ranks, and again Michigan ends up the finalist they’re trying to screw. Video of how they do it? Actually yeah.

Credit mgouser dmoo4u for uncovering the plot in time. It seems if you create a new group that group gets to vote again. Much of this was going on in the wee hours of last night. I suspect they’ve been doing this all the way up the ranks.

FOOTBAWWWWWWWWW?

Spring football at least but we are starving fans and we’ll take that. Before there was the Brian article on things to look for this spring, there was the thread of things to look for this spring. Eyes are on, in order, the offensive line, the receivers after Gallon, and the young defensive ends. Ojemudia gif appears:

ojemudiasmile

While on the subject of the foosballs YoBoMoLloRoHo (name complaint: I get that Kipke, Crisler and Bump don’t have easily accessible o’s but what’s your excuse for leaving out Oosterbaan?) takes us down to Georgia to see how they’re developing football talent. I appreciate the effort but having followed high school football in the State of Michigan for some time, I think you’re overrating the difference. I felt that certain schools in the past didn’t do what they could to get their players into BCS programs, but year-long S&C training happens here and on better equipment. Take a tour of Farmington Hills Harrison’s program sometime. The biggest difference between the north and the south in the programs themselves is coach longevity, and I don’t see how that’s a bonus. The biggest difference between Midwest HS football and the South is they have more talent there.

STAUSKAS VS LEVERT:

8534878287_7fd3a66463_o

Bryan Fuller | MGoBlog

Following the Penn State disaster the board starting asking whether a Stauskas who isn’t shooting 80% from behind the arc (and wasn’t defending so well) really ought to be starting over the LeVert sensation. Then we immediately got a chance to put this theory to the test when Stauskas was knocked out against MSU. Minutes in the last five games:

Game Stauskas LeVert
PSU 34 9
Illinois 26 16
@PSU 29 12
MSU 4 30
@Purdue 31 10

LeVert played well, Michigan beat its rival at home, and successful message recipient Stauskas’s defense was much better against Purdue. He drew Byrd and I don’t think that guy made a field goal until finally getting in on the parade of preposterous treys late. Competition is good. If LeVert establishes himself as a guy worth 15 minutes a game and the sum effect is to get Stauskas to play better I take. We’ll be watching what they do against Oladipo and Indiana.

The other question being mulled is whether B1G teams other than Michigan might struggle in the NCAAs when they don’t have Valentine et al. and the conference’s notoriously poop-flavored whistles protecting them. The theory goes that when Aaron Craft can’t mug people and MSU can’t send man-beasts with active elbows into the paint and Wisconsin can’t Wisconsin that those teams will lose a big part of their winning strategies. Answer 1: The rest of the NCAA isn’t the NBA. Answer 2: I don’t give a damn, because B1G officiating is a huge disadvantage for a team like Michigan, which hardly ever fouls and which often has a quicker undersized guy taking non-called charges. Michigan State has been going to Final Fours for over a decade with teams just like the one they have this year. Getting away from awful Big Ten refs won’t matter nearly as much as getting away from ridiculous Big Ten home court advantages.

BASKETBALL RECRUITING: LADIES EDITION

This would be a diary if it wasn’t for a demand by the OP that it remain on the board. Raoul put together an epic review of current recruiting targets for women’s basketball in the 2014, 2015, and yes even 2016. As in current high school freshmen. I’ve mentioned before that it’s quite common for the non-main sports to fill their classes years in advance (they have full and partial scholarships to give out so the athletes race to grab the few full rides available), so there’s a lot of pressure on the kids to commit before they can, you know, drive cars.

META: HELLO NEW MODS, NOT LIKE THE OLD MODS

Profitgoblue is stepping down from his longtime moderator chair in order to pursue his lifelong dream of getting a newborn to sleep through the night. Stepping into his place is LSAClassof2000. Better have some good, minable data in your posts from now on.

YOU MIGHT BE A THING IF YOU GET TAKEN IN BY THAT THING’S YOU MIGHT BE… LISTS

Buzzfeed is to Reddit as Flounder is to a group of fraternity brothers playing cards. That said, when Michigan fandom comes in for the “You might be a _____ if…” treatment anywhere, we bite. Here’s all the things from the Buzzfeed list you need to care about:

  • Chipatis. Pizza House takes all the credit but Pizza Bob invented the thing, which makes sense when you consider the whole trick is to make the salad on a paper plate first and then stuff it into a pita, and Bob’s is the place that 1) serves everything on paper plates, and 2) uses pita dough for its pizzas because it’s cheaper.
  • Not a Blimpy virgin. If you haven’t heard, it’s not going to be there much longer.
  • “Constant Buzz” and Casa Dominicks.

I guess you need to at least have taken the orientation tour to know not to step on the M on the Diag, that the UGLI exists, and the stacks are for scandalous trysts (I only ever went there to do research and found other people doing research). The other 29 things are generic, stupid, or things you would discover if you’re from Los Angeles and Googled “Things to do in Ann Arbor.” DON’T BE TAKEN IN BY STUPID BUZZFEED LISTS.

The comments at least mentioned the first day of spring, when the North Face jackets disappear and everyone is outside in shorts throwing frisbees because it’s blessedly 49 degrees. And while the Fishbowl is known to all, the c. 2001 Fishbowl RIsing movement and the Brabbs for Heisman campaign that originated there shall ne’er be forgot.

ETC. Softball has Wagner back. Also back: mercies. Possibly leaked Illinois alternate helmet that doesn’t seem to jive with the school’s attempts to get away from 1950s-‘how, white man’ Native American imagery [insert my usual spiel about how this is peanuts when there’s pro teams called Redskins and Indians].

Your Moment of Zen:

Vote Denard!

Preview 2012: Defensive Line

Preview 2012: Defensive Line

Submitted by Brian on August 29th, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Previously: Podcast 4.0, the story, quarterback, running back, wide receivers, offensive line.

A note before we start: this preview relies heavily on the defensive UFRs of last year because there’s a convenient numerical system that does a decent job of summing up a defensive player’s contributions. One caveat: the system is generous to defensive linemen and harsh to defensive backs, especially cornerbacks. A +4 for a defensive end is just okay; for a cornerback it’s outstanding.

campbell-iowa

Depth Chart
STRONG DE Yr. NOSE TACKLE Yr. THREE-TECH Yr. WEAK DE Yr.
Craig Roh Sr. Quinton Washington Jr.* Will Campbell Sr. Jibreel Black Jr.
Nate Brink Jr.*# Richard Ash So.* Ryan Glasgow Fr.# Brennen Beyer So.
Keith Heitzman Fr.* Ondre Pipkins Fr. Matt Godin Fr. Frank Clark So.

Okay okay okay. Breathe. Breathe in. Breathe out. Feel the lung expand and contract, and feel a calmness wash over you. Yeah. Calm. Calm.

Michigan lost three starters, may be starting a 280-pound three-tech, moved the only returning starter, and has a walk-on seriously pressing for playing time. If they're not starting a 280-pound three-tech, they're starting a 280-pound WDE. Will Campbell inherits a starting spot essentially by default.

No no no no. Calm. Callllm.

Defensive Tackle

Rating: 2.5

The big piece of news that hit when the Big Ten Network was let inside the velvet rope at Michigan practice was Jerry Montgomery naming Quinton Washington one of his starters instead of Brennen Beyer. This was followed up by a depth chart confirming this fact.

Clarity came Monday when Hoke made an appearance at the UM Club of Greater Detroit's kickoff dinner that I was at, waiting for the Q&A session with Greg Dooley and Angelique Chengelis. Hoke took questions, someone asked him about the defensive line, and Hoke gave a straight answer. To paraphrase: Michigan is planning on rotating six guys. Washington will be the nose in certain packages with Campbell at three tech and Black at WDE. In other packages they'll remove Washington and slide everyone down, inserting Beyer at WDE and going with Roh-Campbell-Black-Beyer.

Who's the sixth guy? You got me. I'd guess it's Nate Brink, but it didn't come up.

Anyway…

William-Campbellworld_thumb[1]

this year he'll totally live up to this image. really! (probably not really.)

This time we mean it, Will Campbell: it's now or never. The one-time five-star recruit is now a senior. He's been handed a starting spot by the graduation of three DL starters and Rodriguez's crappy recruiting. This makes everyone nervous because obviously.

There is some good news on this front. After a couple years in which Campbell appearances were all but guaranteed to draw this sort of commentary…

I'm not at the point where I can tell you the ten different things Campbell did to get blown four yards downfield, but I can blather on about pad level: man, pad level. Am I right?

…his cameos were fairly effective last year. He got limited snaps, of course, but only ended up negative against Iowa, when he got cut twice on big Coker runs. He had a +5 against ND, a +3.5 against SDSU, a +4 against Minnesota, and a +4 against Illinois, three of which came when he blew up a third and one by himself:

You can also watch him annihilate another Illinois OL to set up a Desmond Morgan decleater and flatten Max Shortell.

Unfortunately, these positives and highlights are all against the worst offensive lines on the schedule (and ND, oddly). Michigan didn't put him out there much against tougher competition; now they've got no choice.

Campbell's giving it a go. He's taken to showing off his chest after shedding 20 pounds in the past couple years. Taylor Lewan:

"The most dramatic change I've seen in a body on our team is Will Campbell," said left tackle Taylor Lewan. "His body is transformed. He was a sloppy 350 and now he's a toned down 308 kind of guy. He looks real good. His conditioning shows it. You should see him run. He's like a gazelle. It's unreal. I think Will is going to do some special things this year."

Come on, baby. He's getting the full-court press from Michigan's three-headed DL coaching staff, and I wished and hoped my way to thinking he was a lot better this spring:

Last spring game guy was a lump who managed to not get blown off the ball most of the time and just about never did anything. During the year he was largely that with some nice plays mixed in, but too infrequently to be encouraging. In the spring game he had clearly progressed enough to actually beat his man to the gap more than once.

You know all those runs Rawls had where he had to abort mission and find another hole? Most of those were headed at Campbell. Since we got a baseline for Ricky Barnum in the time he got before his ankle injury last year—decent Big Ten player even then—that's a hopeful sign.

While that hasn't kept the coaches from grousing about things, their expectations are not my expectations.

Finding out that Campbell will flip between three tech and the nose is probably a positive tea leaf. Leverage has always been a problem, and at 6'5" he's never going to be a great burrower. Get him one on one and he can deposit folks on their butts. That is what he'll generally be allowed to do at the three. His ability to do that on passing downs is going to be a huge factor in how effective that line configuration is—three techs can get good rush, and Michigan's ability to get pressure out of the WDE spot is very much in doubt.

What to expect here is a mystery. My WAG: adequate play that's on average a few points to the good on UFR charts (which is average for DL, as it measures MAKING PLAYS more than not doing so). Maybe a fringe draft pick if Michigan is pretty lucky. I don't think he'll be worse than Heininger, and he was pretty decent by the end of the year.

[hit THE JUMP for the GREAT MYSTERY beyond the KEN OF MAN (and Craig Roh)]

Mailbag: Ojemudia Redshirt, Triple Option, Rodriguez At Alabama Alternate Universe

Mailbag: Ojemudia Redshirt, Triple Option, Rodriguez At Alabama Alternate Universe

Submitted by Brian on August 8th, 2012 at 4:35 PM

MARIOOJEMUDIA10MP150[1]t1_johnson[1]image

1: pew pew pew  2: a man Al Borges isn't 3: an alternate universe

Ojemudia redshirt?

I think there is no way Mario O plays.  A ton of guys could be put on field before him.  Several combos could fill the WDE spot better, eg Ryan-Cam Gordon combo puts our best, or at least most experienced, backup on the field, Ryan-Avery is similar, or how about flip back Roh for a Roh-Brink/Heitzman/Wormley/Black(?) replacement.  Given how important a redshirt could be to Mario, I would think coaches will be creative.  

-Dirk

I agree with you philosophically. Ojemudia should get a redshirt. I get frustrated when certain players have theirs burned for what seems like no reason. I'm with you, man. But… I don't see how he doesn't get on the field if Clark's issues are severe.

The problem with the above scenarios is that they reduce Michigan's specialization by flipping guys around and they still leave Michigan an injury from putting Ojemudia on the field. Is that injury reasonably likely? Yeah. So it seems to make more sense to leave Ryan at SLB full time, where he is still getting a grasp on all the particulars, and Roh at SDE, where he needs every snap he can get to figure out how to deal with his size limitations. The immediate payoff here seems real, and given the way Michigan is recruiting they figure they will be able to insert a Taco Charlton or 2014 kid into the lineup when Ojemudia graduates without losing too much. Of course, Mattison just told everyone that he was comfortable with the idea of Ryan at WDE in practice and proclaimed his faith in Cam Gordon's ability, so what do I know?

But even with that move, you're still juggling just three players between two positions. That's not tenable. If the coaches know Clark is going to be back relatively promptly, then I can see holding Ojemudia out the first couple games and getting him the redshirt. If Clark's out until Notre Dame or later, I think you have to blood Ojemudia and worry about the consequences in the distant future.

Triple option?

Brian,

This may be a non feasible idea, but why not kill two birds with one stone by creating a triple option package for Denard and company? Everyone says its really hard to prepare for Air Force, and we could prepare our defense while surprising the crap out of Alabama. Think about it, our RB, FB, QB combo are familiar with zone reads and are a lot better than any combo air force will ever have. We surprised Ohio with the inverted veer last year, and Bama's young defense won't know what hit 'em.

In addition, I can't help but think kicking and coverage teams, plus Denard's (hopefully) reduction in interceptions will make up for the fortunate 80% fumble recovery rate. The special teams will likely improve with the influx of talent and depth we are getting, or negated by rule changes. Either way its a net gain for Michigan in special teams.

Jim

Unfortunately I think we have to file that under "not feasible." Triple option is not something you can go into halfway. Hell, Michigan's speed option last year was mostly a Denard run off-tackle that had little if any chance of getting to the tailback. The one time Denard pitched it was a fumble caused when a blitzing linebacker met him after he'd taken one step playside. While it had the excellent benefit of keeping defenses honest and shooting Denard into secondaries, calling it an "option" is being generous.

Adding a true triple option and trying to get him to better understand Borges's West Coast passing attack is way too much to bite off in one fall camp. Since Borges is what he is, he's going to do what he does, and that's get Denard to throw more accurate balls that are less frequently intercepted.

The inverted veer is a different business because it's a handoff. The worst thing that happens there is you make the wrong decision and you eat some yardage. We almost saw the worst thing with the option last year, and that's the last thing an offense trying to cut down on turnovers needs.

IN RE: making up for fewer fumbles recovered. I'm not sure the special teams will be much better than last year except in the realm of punting. Gibbons is still Gibbons, kick returns just got nerfed, and it's damn hard to have an impact punt return game these days what with everyone spread-punting their way to seven gunners. Punting should be better because Hagerup will either get his foot on straight or a quick hook for the steady Wile, but we're talking a few yards a game.

The interceptions, sure. Denard's interception rate dropped over the tougher second half of the year and he should improve somewhere between noticeably and spectacularly in year two with Borges. That still leaves Michigan treading water even in the most optimistic turnover scenario, and the schedule has taken a turn for the bear-like.

brian,

pre-bama thought experiment. in december of 2006, alabama offers rich rodriguez their head coaching job. he accepts. what happens to both alabama and michigan from then on?

trippwelborneID

images[1]

Well, let's start with Alabama. They struggle through an RR-at-WVU transition year probably a little bit worse than their initial 6-6 Saban year, with Star Jackson taking over for the Bama bangs QBs midseason. Jackson doesn't end up transferring to nowheresville and becomes something like Pat White but probably not as good. No one gives six hundredths of a crap about the academics of RR's incoming recruits or Rita's jaguar pants, but RR probably still makes his fatal "I don't need Casteel that badly" error. With a somewhat more secure powerbase and money-providing demons, he does not hire GERG on try #2 and cycles through one of the then-available proven SEC DCs (Jon Chavis, for example).

This plus the better fit with his recruiting makes his defense not the worst ever assembled at the school he's coaching. He gets his QB a year earlier and has considerably better talent than he inherited at Michigan. He's replacing a total loser, one of many such since Bear. He does at least okay, probably pulls off an SEC title game or two, maybe wins it once, and sees a BCS bid or two.

He's probably still at Alabama in a Pelini-esque state: decent success, the fanbase is relatively happy with him, but they'll start to sour after a subpar year and two means you're out, buddy.

Meanwhile, Michigan finds itself adrift in the middle of the Les Miles/Bill Martin boat thing without a seemingly A-list candidate willing to jump. At that point I have no idea what they do. At the time I was muttering about how Jim Grobe mutterings were just the worst. Ferentz was out, Schiano was out, Miles was out, and Tedford was seemingly uninterested. Michigan clearly had no idea where to go, whereupon Rodriguez fell into their lap.

large_826umqbs[1]If Rodriguez is not there… does it matter? I'm not sure it matters. Lloyd was not Bo but he did have an impressive winning percentage, a national title, and the continuation of a record bowl streak. Would a pro-style coach have been able to turn Threet/Sheridan/no OL/nobody at all into a bowl appearance? I don't think so. At that point you're working from behind the eight ball and you have to be really fantastic to pull yourself out of that tailspin. Would Hoke have survived that? I doubt it; at that point his resume was a bunch of .500 seasons at Ball State. Would any outsider Michigan could have acquired have managed to hang on? Maybe by another year or two.

Even if we have no clue about who takes the reins in RR's absence in 2008, we can hazard a guess at their fate: similar hammering by OSU, flameout in 3-5 years, replacement. That's the way of things whenever you replace a legend, and if Carr wasn't a legend (debatable) he was definitely the continuation of Bo. It would have taken a truly A-level coach to not bomb out with no quarterbacks and no safeties and no offensive line, and it didn't look like any were available.

In the end, both programs are probably happy with the way things turned out. Alabama's case: duh. Michigan's: Rodriguez was such a terrible fit that Michigan rejected it in three years, at which point Hoke was just plausible enough to show up and shock everyone by doing everything right for going on 18 months.

2012 Recruiting: Mario Ojemudia

2012 Recruiting: Mario Ojemudia

Submitted by Brian on August 6th, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Previously: S Jeremy Clark, S Allen Gant, S Jarrod Wilson, CB Terry Richardson, LB James Ross, LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, LB Kaleb Ringer, LB Joe Bolden, DE Chris Wormley, and DE Tom Strobel.

       
Farmington Hills, MI – 6'2", 220
       

9765118-large[1]

Scout 4*, #20 DE, #162 overall
Rivals 3*, #30 WDE, #12 MI
ESPN 4*, #23 DE, #5 MI
24/7 3*, #28 WDE, #9 MI
Other Suitors Michigan State, Stanford, Missouri, Illinois
YMRMFSPA Shantee Orr
Previously On MGoBlog Hello post from Tim. Ace checks out Harrison games against Cass Tech and Brother Rice.
Notes Enrolled sort of early, in April.

Film

Senior highlights:

He's also got a junior reel and you can see him run a bunch of drills. One on ones start at three minutes.

Children under 17, pregnant women, and men with heart conditions should stop reading this post now. It's about to get real.

INCOMING: MARIO OJEMUDIA DEATH STARE

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For the record, he has smiled. On camera and everything. Don't tell opposing quarterbacks, please. It would be best for everyone if they only think of the eyes. The eyes.

When not staring a borehole through a camera lens, Ojemudia has two hobbies: making opposing offensive linemen say "where the hell did he go?" and heralding a sea change in in-state recruiting by going from Michigan State lock to Michigan signee. Even if you're not the kind of person who watches recruiting videos, I suggest taking a gander at Ojemudia's. It's kind of like watching a 215 pound version of Mike Martin in high school. He is there, and then he is not, because he's in the backfield.

That's why he's a D-I prospect and the kind of ultra-productive high school player—127 tackles as a junior lineman! 104 as a senior! A total of 26 sacks!—who gets ranked the top player in the state by newspapers more focused on high school production than college potential. He makes things happen. Those are tackles, and they are often of the screaming Viking incursion sort.

He does this with BGO($):

An acronym often used in the coaching world when describing defensive lineman is their BGO (ball get off). Mario Ojemudia is a defensive end with big-time BGO. Ojemudia is a fast twitch athlete at defensive end that can beat the offensive tackle out of his stance with his BGO.

Ojemudia has a large arsenal of moves to keep his opposing offensive tackle off balance whether it is the swim move, spin move, speed rush, or even the bull rush as he shows great strength for an undersized, 6-foot-2, 215-pound defensive end.

This has gotten him to Michigan. To get on the field he's got to add 30 pounds and retain that, which is always an open question. Some kids can, some can't.

If he can, things look good what with the stats and the highlight films and such. Ask his coach:

"Mario just has a motor that is unbelievable," Herrington said. "…He's about 215-218. If he gets up to college and he gets up to 245, he'll just be amazing. He could be a hybrid. We've never played him (standing) up, but he's fast and he could play an outside linebacker. I think he is better down, but he's always wanted to play up as a linebacker, so we'll see."

One of the games Ace caught featured Ojemudia's suspension for wearing pads at the Opening and Brother Rice running clock after racking up a big lead and was not of much use, but the season opener against Cass Tech was more productive:

Mario Ojemudia: The good news for Michigan fans is that if there was one player who impressed as much as Burbridge, it was defensive end Mario Ojemudia. … Cass Tech simply couldn't stop him on the pass rush, and he brought it on every play, showing an excellent motor and a great nose for the football.

Ojemudia stood up well to double-teams, flashed a nice swim move a couple times, and made sure to finish every play, including chasing down Cass's running back from behind on one occasion. To me, Ojemudia looks like a perfect fit for rush end, and he appears to have the frame to add some pounds without losing athleticism.

That star-laden game was loaded with scouts and both Scout's Allen Trieu and 247's Steve Wiltfong reported back similarly. Trieu:

Trieu on the Cass Game:

Ojemudia goes inside-outside for the Hawks, often playing inside of the right tackle, but will be converted to more of a true edge guy or potentially a stand up rush backer in college. He is very quick off the ball, plays with excellent pad level and motor. He was in the Cass Tech backfield quite a bit and laid a big hit on their quarterback in addition to a sack. He's relentless and looked like he was playing at a different speed than the Cass offensive line.

And Wiltfong:

…had his way with the Cass Tech offensive line, registering a couple sacks, a few more tackles for loss and several quarterback hurries. … His explosiveness off the snap was evident. It almost appeared like he knew the Cass Tech snap count as he was so quick to get penetration into the backfield.

Rivals's Josh Hemholdt saw in Harrison's second game($):

…picked up where he left off last week by registering two tackles for loss on the game's first two plays. He would later add two sacks to his stat line. Ojemudia is much more effective when he is lined up outside the tight end and has room to work. When he is moved down over the tackle he tends to get bottled up, but as an outside rusher he is nearly unstoppable.

Won't it be nice if someone's saying that the snap count must be known when Michigan's defense is on the field? If the results are anything like those Jerel Worthy turned in during his three years of torment, yes. I digress.

Anyway, you get the idea. Ojemudia is undersized and has to make a transition to defensive end in college, which makes him a risk, but his production is such that people throw out names like Freeney, Suggs, and a guy you may be familiar with:

"Defensively, the only player in my 50 years of coaching I'd compare him to is LaMarr Woodley (Saginaw High)," Herrington said. "We played Saginaw in the playoffs (in 2001, Harrison defeated Saginaw 31-14 in Division 3 semifinals) and Woodley was pretty good. Mario can't be blocked. He burst onto the scene his junior year." …

"It was like coaching a back, he's so agile," Herstein said. "He has powerful hands and had that explosiveness."

For his part, Tom Lemming called him "the best in the state." Hype: feel it run through you.

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He's got the death stare, he's got the BGO, he's… thirty pounds lighter than Michigan's smallest starting linebacker. That is why he is not Woodley to the ranking services, and why he's the biggest X-factor in the class. A small subset of Ojemudia-like players have the speed and ability to maintain their production at higher levels; most end up not making it. Only time will tell here.

The nice thing for Ojemudia—but maybe not the team—is that if he doesn't get big enough to fend of tight ends effectively there is a hole at SAM he would fit into nicely. Either way, he'll be an edge rusher. Michigan has discussed both with him…

Coach Mattison was told me that he was having me come in as a standup defensive end or outside linebacker," Ojemudia said. "My role would be just blitzing from both spots."

…and chances are wherever Ojemudia ends up his instructions will be simple: see that guy? He's the quarterback. Use your eye lasers.

Etc.: Note Stanford offer, check "academics" off. Picked up laughable MHSAA suspension for wearing pads at the Opening. Interview from last September. Tremendous interview.

Ojemudia early in the process:

"I've been (a Michigan State) fan. Michigan State has been one of the only schools that has really been talking to me that much -- actually physically talking with me. That's got my interest in (Michigan State) up there."

A couple months later, he and Harrison teammate Devin Funchess were commits and Aaron Burbridge was banging down the door but had to be turned away because Michigan couldn't take a gamble on the sort of academics that become a will-he-or-won't he offseason subplot in the aftermath of Rodriguez attrition.

Why Shantee Orr? Orr was the last truly short linebacker-type substance to man the rush LB (as it was called then)/WDE (as it's called now) spot. Orr was 6'1" and ended up 246 by the time he hit the NFL, which is about Ojemudia's ceiling. He was never a star but he was productive and could have gotten there as a senior had he not made a financially-motivated decision to enter the NFL draft.

And, hey, if you want to get super-optimistic, here's Tyrone Wheatley's recruiting pitch($):

“He compared my film to Dwight Freeney's,” Ojemudia said. “He said they’re identical and I liked that. He really wants me to go there. He talks to me once a week about life and everything.”

I'll take it! Freeney is also 6'1" but managed to near 270 pounds. For Mattison's part, he said Terrell Suggs. I mean, like… okay. If that's all.

Guru Reliability: Moderate-plus. Yeah, there's a big discrepancy between the two positive services and the two negative ones, but shouldn't there be? Ojemudia's the kind of player who should draw radically contrasting views on his talent.

Variance: Very high. Ojemudia could end up anything from a special teams player too small to see the field on D to that Freeney guy.

Ceiling: High. This is not "very" high because of size limitations. If those don't prove a huge problem, he can be that edge threat 4-3 unders look for.

General Excitement Level: Moderate. Boom-or-bust prospects default to "moderate."

Projection: You'd imagine a 220 pound defensive lineman would be a lock to redshirt, but Michigan's lack of depth everywhere along the line and Frank Clark's uncertain status may prevent that from happening. He will likely be pressed into service unless Clark's charges are dismissed—that is a suspension-level event and the only other WDE available is starter Brennen Beyer.

When pressed into service, Ojemudia will fill Clark's role from last year as a situational pass rusher only. There is no way he can hold up on the edge against any team with a pulse that wants to run the ball. Down the road he'll get more of the same, backing up or rotating with Beyer and/or Clark until such time as there's sufficient depth at WDE to yank one of them over to SLB, likely Ojemudia.