kenny johnson

See also: 2017.

As we push further out with hockey recruiting things get fuzzier, and since a lot of these guys are at or near the top of their field now the only direction to go is down. Current projections, taken collectively, will almost certainly be optimistic as certain guys fail to keep pace with their competition.

2018

i must break you

NTDP defenseman Mattias Samuelsson is the headliner. Mattias is the son of former NHL defenseman Kjell Samuelsson, and like his dad (6'7"), he's a big dude at 6'5". He was ranked 7th and 3rd amongst available players for last year's OHL draft by HockeyProspect and The Scout.ca, respectively; a year later he's projected as a first round pick in the upcoming NHL draft. As of about a year ago, ISS had him in the top ten:

6. Mattias Samuelsson (RD) – USNTDP - USHL
The son of former NHL defenseman Kjell Samuelsson, Mattias is a tall, aggressive defenceman with a heavy shot and immense athletic ability. Standing at 6’5” and 228 lbs, he has a pro-ready frame and looks capable of stepping in immediately at the NHL level. Very difficult to play against when he is on his game; skates around with ease for such a big man and has shown the ability to simply take over games physically in the USHL. Plays with a real edge to his game and is happy to finish his checks hard, whilst still maintaining good reads and positioning in the D-zone.

One of The Scout's, er, scouts:

A defensive stalwart who is a lock for USA’s NTDP Under-17 program, Mattias Samuelsson is the top shutdown defenceman in the [OHL] draft. While Samuelsson displays good talent with the puck, he’s especially impressive with his rangy challenges – poking away pucks and getting in the shooting lanes of almost every opposing attack.

He's more or less maintained that status through the last year thanks to an impressive season with the U17s; he was called up to the U18s for ten games, more than any of his fellow defenders, and his PPG led U17 defensemen. With a full year of development in front of him he should arrive ready to step in as a top four D for M:

“I came in at 195 and I’m 215 now. I was skin and bones when I came in,” he explained. “Every day you are doing something. Your only day off is Sunday and it is much needed. Every day you are getting better, whether you are improving something or getting stronger. When you are on the ice, you are willing to do the little things, competing with the best players of your age every day. I don’t know where else you can get that, especially in the offseason.”

Samuelsson is a candidate to be the top D picked in the next draft.

[Side note: At one point Samuelsson's brother Lukas was also committed to Michigan for 2017 but he has not been announced as a signee. He could be a walk-on or plans may have changed. Hopefully his name does pop up on the roster; Samuelsson is the kind of guy OHL teams will be pursuing heavily after his NTDP tenure expires. Any little bit helps keep 'em down on the farm.]

Nobody else in the class looks like a surefire star, but they are tracking well.

Calen Kiefiuk's backhander has #WhosNext pic.twitter.com/m1TUL83fg8

— USHL (@USHL) February 5, 2017

Calen Kiefiuk signed a USHL tender with Bloomington and joined the league as a 16 year old. He struggled, putting up 11 points in 52 games, but that's what USHL tenders almost exclusively do—it's a brutal league for that age group. Kiefiuk is in fact the youngest player to ever suit up for Bloomington, and acquiring him through the tender system means they had to play him in at least 55% of their games—it's a major commitment. He had no problem scoring in his last year in midget, with a 36-44-80 line in 64 games.

Kiefiuk is a throwback to the Berenson teams of the 90s and aughts:

Calen Kiefiuk, #12 Grey/ Honeybaked, 5-7/181 – A ball of skill and energy. Constantly makes plays in all three zones. Hard on the puck, and relentless on the forecheck. Created passing options with little time and space. Protects the puck well. Mans the point on the PP. Scored two even-strength goals within three minutes in Sunday’s game. Left shot from Macomb, Michigan. (4-4-8)

He's a little dude who turns guys who check him into balls of hate. Jeff Cox:

He's an aggressive winger who plays hard. He's fast on pucks, gets after the points while killing penalties and disrupts opponents' flow. He had three shots on goal during one penalty kill against Red after stealing the puck away from one of Red's top defenders. He wins battles below the goal line. He sent out a nice pass into the slot from down low for a power play goal. His speed helped him blow by a defender in Tuesday's game against Gold.

Bloomington head coach Dennis Williams:

“…not only does he have a great knack for scoring goals and making plays but he plays the game right. He is a 200-foot player and has an edge. He competes every shift he’s out there and that’s what we look for. We want a great all-around player with high-end skill and that’s what Calen brings us."

Kiefiuk's size is likely to knock him down NHL draft boards—Chris Dilks put him in the "C" category for 2018—but that might be a positive for Michigan since a guy like Kiefiuk projects as a very useful college player. He could be a smaller, more ornery version of Andrew Cogliano.

Forward Jack Randl also signed a USHL tender, his with the Omaha Lancers. Like Kiefiuk he scuffled a bit last year with 9-10-19 in 59 games. He's also touted as a guy who flies around the ice doin' things:

“He’s a big, strong forward who skates well and has the ability to make plays with the puck. Every time our staff watched him he had a big impact on the game with and without the puck. His competitiveness and his desire to win are characteristics that we look for and want in our players.”

Cox had him second amongst forwards at the Select 16 camp:

He's a good skater who showed the ability to create offense from anywhere. He slows the game down and has excellent vision. He's strong on his feet and is hard to knock off pucks.

Like Kiefiuk, Randl is probably a mid-to-late round draft pick and long term productive college player.

Three more defensemen fill out the class… probably. Kenny Johnson, Jack's younger brother, has been on Michigan's commit list for three years already and is apparently set to take a second post-grad year, this one in the BCHL. That is highly unusual. 20 year olds who enter NCAA hockey generally emerge during their final season of junior and commit less than a year before they enroll. Sometimes kids know they may delay a year depending on how their team's roster shakes out; delaying two years can be a sign that the player in question isn't going to make it to campus for whatever reason.

Compounding my suspicion here: there are three other D in this class. Is Michigan really going to take four in one year? Maybe, if one of them is a healthy scratch PWO sort. Are they going to take four in a year when they lose just one guy to graduation? Is Johnson really down at that level now? I don't know. I  did see Kenny and his father at Yost once this year, so there's clearly still contact between Johnson and the program.

Anyway: the outlines of his recruitment are weird and point towards Johnson as a bottom pairing sort. FWIW, he had ten points in 49 games in the BCHL last year, but he's always been regarded as a defensive defenseman.

Two other D are more certain to arrive.

Like Randl and Kiefiuk, Jacob Semik is coming off his first year in the USHL. He went 14th overall to Dubuque and played well enough to draw USA attention. Semik got called up to the U17s for the World U17 challenge to replace Samuelsson, who was injured, and put up a PPG over the five games of the tournament.

Semik is somewhere between Hughes and Samuelsson: he's a mid-sized puck mover who isn't quite the offensive dynamo Hughes is. He put up 33 points in 48 games in his last year of midget but slid to ten in his first USHL season. But he's definitely got offensive defenseman potential:

Jacob Semik finally off the board, a bona fide first-round talent, highly mobile, highly competent future Wolverine D goes to Dubuque.

— Over The Boards (@OverTheBoards) May 2, 2016

Michigan commit Jacob Semik was strong for Red. Good, active footwork, moves fluid in and out of possession. Smart outlets/saucer passes

— Sean Lafortune (@SeanLafortune) July 18, 2015

Jacob Semik is interesting. Slick two way defender with good feet, a powerful frame and smart positioning. He’s a player to watch next year.

— Sean Lafortune (@SeanLafortune) March 28, 2015

USHR ranked him just behind Samuelsson and fellow NTDP big timer Bode Wilde at the select 15s:

Poised, two-way defender. Excellent skater, plus shot, could be a powerplay QB at the next level.

Cox likes him as well, naming him the third best defender at the Select 16. One more difference between Semik and Hughes:

His athletic ability is his biggest asset at the moment. He has good feet and mobility, can get shots through from the point and can join the offense. He moves the puck well. If he can learn to think the game a little better, the Wolverines could have an elite college blue liner coming to Ann Arbor.

Hughes is reputed to think the game better than aonyone in his age group, and Semik isn't on that level yet. I've seen the odd assertion from randos on the Hockey's Future boards that Semik could sneak into the tail end of the first round; it seems more likely he'd be a second or third rounder.

Finally, Alec Regula is a rarity: a kid who emerged from Michigan high school hockey to be a major prospect. He moved to the USHL last year after being a second round pick and at 16 was a regular for the USHL champs. The Chicago Steel finished third in goals allowed; Regula had just five points in 53 games. He's very much a defensive defenseman.

Other indicators of his talent level: he was a fourth round pick by London in the OHL draft despite the fact that he attended Cranbrook (that's a private school!) before his USHL move. The idea he was going to skip out on college was fanciful at best:

“The OHL Draft happened so quickly. I hadn’t talked to a team all year then right before the draft I played in the OHL cup with TPH and played pretty well. After that tons of teams were calling seeing if I’d be interested in the OHL route. I told the teams I wanted to play college, but London really liked me and decided to take me early. It was a great feeling seeing my name called; I’ll never forget it.”

Regula is the most boom-or-bust of Michigan's 2018 recruits, but he appears to be leaning towards the boom end:

"He's a player who's still a little raw in his development, but he has big time potential, especially with his size. He's mobile for such a big guy. He has good reach and length to his game in his own zone. He got caught flat footed a couple of times, but once he learns the position more, he could be a legit pro prospect. The Wolverines scooped him up following camp.

USHR thought he was "big" and "raw" but similarly promising. The Scout:

…high-upside defender who landed firmly in our Top 75 after impressing with his high-impact game. He moves extremely well in a sturdy frame and shows the ability to distribute at an advanced level. He’s a name that isn’t receiving as much traction as he should but he should turn heads at the OHL Cup. Just remember that you heard his name here first.

His development over the next year will be more interesting than any of the other 2018s. Have to imagine he might get pushed back to 2019 given the roster.

Upshot

Unless there's attrition that looks somewhat unlikely this class should slot in comfortably with Michigan's needs. The only forwards Michigan loses after this year are two healthy scratch sorts (Talcott and Porikos), Cutler Martin, Dexter Dancs, and Tony Calderone. Kiefiuk and Randl look to be long term college players and upgrades on the departures. They can fill in other holes with the kind of guys Pearson was picking up at Tech.

The D class is excellent. Michigan's certain attrition next year consists of just Sam Piazza, and there aren't any surefire early departures. Luke Martin and Joe Cecconi are both possibilities, I guess. Even if both go Michigan has plenty of cover. Unless there's the Michigan Hockey Summer to end all Michigan Hockey Summers the blueline is going to be capital-L Loaded in the near future.

it was one or the other this weekend for Michigan's 18-to-20-year-old hockey prospects

An eight-man recruiting class will enter Michigan this fall ready to patch some of the holes left by this spring's exodus. Though there are no players the caliber of Kyle Connor or Dylan Larkin in this class, it seemed almost certain that five of the eight would be drafted in this past weekend's NHL Draft.

Almost, but not quite. Only three of Michigan's eight incoming freshmen (and an addition 2017 prospect) were selected in the draft despite projections that had the two who went undrafted, Griffin Luce and James Sanchez, safely above the bottom of the draft.

Scouting reports for hockey prospects are typically short and published irregularly, so I thought I'd use the boom in available scouting materials to look at what you can expect from Michigan's newest draftees' games, as well as where they're likely to fit when they suit up for their first game in a Michigan sweater this fall.

Will Lockwood, RW

Third round, 64th overall- Vancouver Canucks

[Rena Laverty/USNTDP]

Scouting:

Lockwood's 13-20-33 scoring line in 59 games with the USNTDP is fine, I suppose. He's not going to be a revelation, but he should put up a fair but not-at-all sterling stat line in his first season. SB Nation College Hockey's Chris Dilks hints at that toward the end of his scouting report while also making him sound a lot like a third- or fourth-liner:

What I Like:

-High Motor

Lockwood plays with a lot of energy and effort. He's a very consistent player that always gives 100%. He creates opportunities for himself by taking away time and space from the opposition and forcing mistakes

-Good Skater

Speed is Lockwood's best asset. He's got light feet which gives him a very quick first step  and above average straight-line speed. He doesn't always use that speed to his greatest advantage, but it could be a pro-level tool if he learns how to use it better.

-Finishing Ability

Lockwood wasn't a huge scorer for the NTDP this year, but when he got opportunities, he showed a nice ability to finish off plays. He'll have to show he can do that more consistently, but matched with the right linemate that can set him up, he could be a much bigger scorer.

Dilks goes on to mention Lockwood's inability to create with his hands and win puck battles; you can work on winning puck battles, but relying completely on speed is a bit of a red flag in terms of NCAA point production.

Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst agrees with Dilks' assessment while also noting that Lockwood played against good competition and shouldn't have much of a learning curve at Michigan:

Lockwood is near the top of a decent list of draft-eligible sandpaper forwards thanks to excellent straight-line speed and a fearless mindset when engaging opposing skaters. He gets most of his points from a crash-and-bang style that would normally compliment line mates of the finesse variety. Lockwood, however, played most of the season with similar players, yet he was easily one of the NTDP’s most reliable and consistent in that regard.

Hockey Prospectus' Ryan Wagman sees something in Lockwood's physical game that other scouts did not and has a generally less optimistic take:

He is a good penalty killer with a decent wall game. Although well undersized, he is generally a pretty physical player and a frequent hitter. Committed to the University of Michigan, he has low upside, but plays a coach friendly game.

Elite Prospects does a nice job collecting player rankings from around the internet, and you can see Lockwood's all over the place. A few sites had him in the 70s, but others had him as low as #197. Most sites that don't rank expected him to be a mid-fourth round pick; no matter which site's rankings you prefer, he was taken higher than expected.

At Michigan:

There's going to be plenty of room to move up with Michigan losing five of their top six forwards. I'd keep the Warren-Marody-Calderone line intact and make that the top line; Lockwood could play on the second line with Alex Kile on the opposite wing and centered by…uh, someone's going to have to learn how to play center in a hurry. Lockwood plays a similar style to Warren and could hit 15-20 points as a freshman.

[After THE JUMP: two more commits get picked]

FIRE EVERYONE! Naw man this ain't relevant to your interests. I but I mean cumong man.

Cumong woman, I guess. Either way, y'all shouldn't have laid off the common sense editor a couple years back. "Picks Barbour" instead of "Selects Woman" would have fit and passed the "will people be irate on twitter about this?" test.

I WILL LAY A PATH OF DESTRUCTION ACROSS THE LAND. CBS Sports scouts Michigan's upcoming team for the next NFL draft, starting with one Devin Funchess:

He has excellent initial burst off the line to get vertical in a hurry with long, full strides, flashing flexible and easy movement skills rare for a player his size. Funchess tracks well with smooth body control to make natural adjustments on the ball, but has WAY too many drops on his resume and needs to improve his reliability and finishing ability through the catch point. The effort is there for him as a blocker, but his technique needs work as he's often caught off guard with his blocking assignments. Funchess is a mismatch nightmare against linebackers and smaller defensive backs and with improved consistency, he has all the makings of a future first round pick, reminiscent of a younger Jermichael Finley at Texas.

I'm not entirely sure the effort is there as a blocker after watching him opposite Jeremy Gallon, but he should be at least adequate as a wide option. The drops were a bit unfortunate but he's not in the Braylon category, at least not yet, and his ability to reach up and pluck things out of the air with one hand gives him a circus catch upside that few players have.

Also featured are Ryan ("possible top-50 draft pick"), Clark ("One of the more underrated pass rushers for the 2015 class"), Gardner("upper and lower body mechanics are a mess and he often releases while off-balance," thanks Mr. Borges and your hatred of QB coaches), and various others. Special nod to Raymon Taylor for being average at everything:

His size, speed and strength are all considered average, but he has the competitive mentality and awareness needed for the position.

The center of the bell curve, that Raymon Taylor.

OKAY YOU HAVE MY ATTENTION. Patrick Beilein is doing something his old man never did: becoming an assistant coach.

Patrick Beilein is leaving West Virginia Wesleyan to take a job on coach Quin Snyder's staff with the Utah Jazz, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

That is a 29-year-old NBA assistant coach whose dad is John Beilein, just kinda hanging out. At this point it would be an upset if LaVall Jordan didn't get the job when it is time for Beilein to hang it up, but things change and it's nice to have attractive options.

Meanwhile: wait, Quin Snyder is now an NBA coach? Specifically Trey Burke's NBA coach? When do I get a job?

WELL THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS PROBABLY SHOULDN'T BE ALL CAPS. Michigan picked third the East in a poll of 29 media voters that somehow came up with 33 first place votes:

Big Ten East

1. Ohio State, 195 points (23 first-place votes)
2. Michigan State, 180 points (10)
3. Michigan, 136 points
4. Penn State, 105.5 points
5. Maryland, 84 points
6. Indiana, 78.5 points
7. Rutgers, 33 points

That is zero votes that have anything other than Rutgers dead last.

I AM TERRIBLY OLD AND HAVE CHOSEN POORLY. Defensman Kenny Johnson, who I remember wandering around Yost as, like, a zero-year-old, has committed to Michigan. Kenny is of course Jack Johnson's little brother. 

“It wasn’t very hard to make a choice, I’ve always wanted to go there since I was a little kid,” the ’98 birth-year defenseman said. “I went to every game of my brother’s, I was always running around the rink. I guess the hardest part was making the call and going to do it because I couldn’t believe it was real.”

I in fact remember a nine-or-ten year old Kenny wearing a "JMFJ" shirt at the Joe during Jack's sophomore year. I hoped he had no idea why he was wearing that shirt. Now he's KMFJ, which is an amazing abbreviation right there.

Kenny isn't the incredible prospect his brother was—he's more of a stay-at-home guy—but he's no slouch.

Newest Michigan 98 D recruit Kenny Johnson, 19 pts, 171 PIMs, 47 games. Made that SSM team hard to play with a few other huge D on back end.

— Over The Boards (@OTBPuckWatch) July 24, 2014

While we're talking about hockey recruiting, further evidence that recent commit Mike Pastujov is currently a big deal comes from the recent U15 select camp at which he was named the best forward:

1. Michael Pastujov (#11 Black) 6-0/186 Honeybaked U16 (Michigan) - A strong and powerful skater who committed to the Wolverines along with his brother Nick, a '98, less than a week after the camp ended. He's a flight risk to the OHL, but he's a strong skater who drives the net well. He made plays happen from all over the ice, really dishes the puck well to his linemates and he wins one-on-one battles. He's a complete package offensively.

When you're so far away from matriculating these evaluations are shaky, but there's no better place to start than from the top.

HOW WOULD YOU LIKE A TRIP TO BIG RAPIDS. Hockey's released their schedule and it is bizarre. They go to Ferris State to open the season—like before the Canadian exhibition game—and then they have a brutal nonconference road schedule after that test: Lowell, BU, BC, two against Tech. They do get UNH at Yost for what should be an entertaining series.

Unfortunately they again do that bit where they have a ton of home games during the meat of the football schedule and then a massive gap when people really want to go to hockey games. Michigan will go 41 days between home games after a home series against Minnesota on January 10th. The TBA MSU games will be at Munn and the Joe, so the next time you'll have a ticket at Yost is February 21st.

Meanwhile four straight weeks from Friday November 14th to December 5th feature Michigan hockey, and that's after another month-long break, one that features a bye week November 6th and 7th. The planning is not so good. This is the second straight year the second half of the home schedule has been really sparse.

The other thing of note is that there's a bunch of games with "possible" next to them as the Big Ten moves towards Sunday games in an effort to get more of them on the BTN. Hopefully they get that settled before tickets are issued. Moving a game time is one thing; moving entire days is not reasonable.

ENGULFED BY BLACKNESS. A sixth grade girl was at Michigan's football camp, which I guess is cute.

The Detroit News:

Ann Arbor hasn’t seen a burst of speed like this since Denard Robinson wore the Maize and Blue

Ha ha! That's not true.

[reminds self of last year's running game]

Blackness is everything.

[exits slowly]

[fades to nothing made of sadness]

[Death Cab For Cutie writes song about this experience]

ENTER THE LUMBERG. Man Dave Brandon I really don't want to talk about you constantly but then you're just like

Organizations that have a strong and healthy culture make sure the guiding principles and aspirational vision are integrated into everything that is done -- hiring decisions, communication, recognition, celebration, and the way they create positive energy.

and I'm just like why don't you speak English like a human does and then you're just like

To further our guiding principle of being a "great place to work," an important -- and descriptive -- Smile Committee was created. The committee's job is to draw on the skills and interests of a broad cross-section of the U-M Athletic Department to create activities of fun and importance.

and I'm just like oh that's because you ceased being a part of our species some time ago and you're now homo executivus. Which is fine and all that but I'm just saying that I would go watch RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE EXECUTIVES in a hot second.

"War or war-related activities integral to our aspirational vision… has or have, depending on which antecedent you prefer in the previous phrase, and by "has or have" I mean 'is occurring in a timeframe consistent with that commonly referred to as "now"'… been initiated after consulting with a diverse array of focus groups, consultants, and best-in-class operational specialists including but not limited to—"

/executive shot in face

That's Oscar stuff right there. Hollywood, get on it.

I mean.

To further our guiding principle of being a "great place to work"

I'M ON THE COMMITTEE FORMING COMMITTEE. Instead of just working with the student government, which did great work surveying students and getting the athletic department to change their seating policy to something they would actually enjoy—#MikeProppeforAD—the athletic department is assembling a student advisory committee. We'll see how that works out; I am skeptical it'll be anything nearly as useful as what the unconnected student government managed last year.

Michigan is also confident they'll get past the 100k attendance number, because they just make those up anyway.

"(Some numbers may) potentially be lower than normal in the past, sure," Lochmann said. "I know there's a lot of eyeballs talking about the 100,000 -- we're not going to go below 100,000."

There could be no one in the stadium except the teams and they would announce 102,309. Ask anyone who was at the '95 Purdue doom-weather game if there were 100k in attendance.

Etc.: Stephen A Smith is just in charge of saying things for no reason. Ray Rice's suspension is ridiculous. Terrell Pryor got five games for tatgate! Rice got two for knocking his wife unconscious. Okay.

In lighter news, Detnews really excited about Alex Cook's tweetin'. Bacon on fireworks fireworks. It's probably not a coincidence that right after fireworks fireworks, Brandon gave an interview to Wojo.

ATTENTION TENNESSEE BIGS: stay away from Rome.