One Frame At A Time: BTT, Part One

One Frame At A Time: BTT, Part One

Submitted by Ace on March 13th, 2017 at 4:59 PM

There's too much from this tournament run to cram into one GIFs post, so I'm splitting it into two parts; today's covers the Illinois and Purdue games. The glut of quality GIFs is due in no small part to Fred Wright-Jones, who emerged over the tournament as the heir apparent to Andrew Dakich's role as King of the Bench Mob. You can see him above mirroring Zak Irvin's dunk from the end of the bench. There's much more where that came from.

[Hit THE JUMP for the best moments from the Illinois and Purdue wins.]

Beilein Extended

Beilein Extended

Submitted by Seth on November 4th, 2015 at 10:48 AM

Via the mothership:

11456070

And the relevant bits from the release:

The terms of Beilein's extension call for him to earn a base salary of $400,000 with additional compensation of $1,470,000 per year for TV, radio, internet, shoe/apparel sponsorships, consulting, promotion and other services. In separate deferred payments, Beilein will receive an additional $1.5 million annually through the University's Supplemental Defined Contributions Retirement Plan.

The contract also provides opportunities for supplemental pay based on a range of performance measures from winning the Big Ten regular-season title and tournament championships as well as selection to and victories in the NCAA Tournament.

The perception already was that he was here through retirement—Michigan would be insane to let him go—but it was time to do this again because his last contract, signed in 2013, would have expired when this year's freshmen are seniors. When this one runs out he'll be 68.

Hokepoints: Beilein vs. All-Time (Recent Guys)

Hokepoints: Beilein vs. All-Time (Recent Guys)

Submitted by Seth on April 1st, 2014 at 4:45 PM

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USATSI/Fuller/Opie Otterstad

Where does John Beilein rank among Michigan's all-time basketball coaches? This was a board question I began answering there until I realized I had written half a column and not written my Tuesday column. Part I explains my subjective criteria and covers Mather, Oosterbaan, Strack and Orr.

So without further ado..

Ado!

Huh?

Show the candidates chart again.

Candidates:

Coach Seasons Wins Avg 30* B10 NCAA** AAs NBA
John Beilein 2008-'14 150 18-12 2 2.14 2 3-8†
Steve Fisher 1989-'97 185 21-9 - 3.00 3 7
Bill Frieder 1981-'89 189 20-10 2 1.13 2 10
Johnny Orr 1969-'80 209 19-11 2 1.25 4 7
Dave Strack 1961-'68 113 17-13 3 1.88 4 7
Bennie Oosterbaan 1939-'46 81 16-14 - - - 2
E.J. Mather 1920-'28 108 20-10 3 - 4 -

Chart things:

  • Wherever I list a year it means the season that began the fall in the year previous, e.g. 1969 = 1968-'69 seasion
  • * Rather than winning % I showed their average record over a 30-game season.
  • ** Average number of tournament games his teams would play in. A 1.00 means his team will make the tourney and go out in the 1st round. I took out the play-in rounds.
  • † Manny Harris was recruited by Amaker but played his entire career for Beilein. Stauskas, GRIII, LeVert, and McGary at least can be counted as future NBA players. It's too early to say the same for Walton/Irvin but it's not a bad bet either.

Here's Part II. These got longer because now we're into my personal recollection period.

---------------------------------------

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Maloof is a skateboarding cup.

Bill Frieder (1981-'89)

Career at M: 9 seasons, 189 wins (68%), 2 Big Ten titles

All-Americans: Gary Grant (1988), Glen Rice (1989)

Avg NCAA Tourney: 1.13

Pros he recruited (NBA games): Glen Rice (1,000), Loy Vaught (689), Terry Mills (678), Gary Grant (552), Tim McComick (483), Rumeal Robinson (336), Roy Tarpley (280), Sean Higgins (220), Demetrius Calip (7), and Richard Rellford. [EDIT: Eric Riley (186)] That's 10 11 guys and 4,249 4,435 games.

[Continued after the jump]

Hokepoints: Beilein vs. All-Time, the Old Guys

Hokepoints: Beilein vs. All-Time, the Old Guys

Submitted by Seth on April 1st, 2014 at 11:16 AM

08 bl01240913033805005_4bbce616dd_b220px-Ben_Oosterbaan

Beilein by Fuller, Orr and Ooster via Bentley.

I got this question from PeteM on the board: Where does John Beilein rank among Michigan's all-time basketball coaches?

The question is subjective since everyone has their own criteria. Mine: wins (total), winning percentage, Big Ten regular season titles, tournament success, All-Americans/NBA prospects, and general good guy-itude.

The Candidates:

Coach Seasons Wins Avg 30* B10 NCAA** AAs NBA
John Beilein 2008-'14 150 18-12 2 2.14 2 3†
Steve Fisher 1989-'97 185 21-9 - 3.00 3 7
Bill Frieder 1981-'89 189 20-10 2 1.13 2 10
Johnny Orr 1969-'80 209 19-11 2 1.25 4 7
Dave Strack 1961-'68 113 17-13 3 1.88 4 7
Bennie Oosterbaan 1939-'46 81 16-14 - - - 2
E.J. Mather 1920-'28 108 20-10 3 - 4 -

Non-candidates for completeness:

Coach Seasons Wins Avg 30* B10 NCAA** AAs NBA
Tommy Amaker 2002-'07 108 17-13 - - - 4
Brian Ellerbe 1998-'01 62 15-15 - 0.50 - 2
Bill Perigo 1953-'60 78 13-17 - - - 1
Ernie McCoy 1949-'52 40 14-16 - - - -
Ozzie Cowles 1947-'48 28 20-10 1 1.50 - -
Cappy Cappon 1932-'38 78 17-13 - - - -
George Veenker 1929-'31 35 22-8 1 - - -
Elmer Mitchell 1918-'19 24 17-13 - - - -

I kept Cowles out of it since this was getting long and he only coached for a few (wild) seasons, wherein he dragooned football stars and developed the pick and roll.

Chartnotes:

For ease, I call the 2013-'14 season "2014" etc.

* Rather than winning % I showed their average record over a 30-game season.

** NCAA tournament factor, equivalent to average number of tournament games his teams would play in. A 1.00 means his average team will make the tourney and go out in the 1st round. I took out the play-in rounds.

† This could as well be 7 or 8: Manny Harris was recruited by Amaker but played his entire career for Beilein. Stauskas, GRIII, LeVert, and McGary at least can be counted as future NBA players. It's too early to say the same for Walton/Irvin but it's not a bad bet either.

I ended up breaking this up into two posts because it was getting long, so here's the candidates chronologically through Johnny Orr:

---------------------------------------

220px-EdwinJMather
Mather [via Wikipedia]

E.J. Mather (1920-'28)

Career at M: 9 seasons, 108 wins (67%), 3 Big Ten titles (1 outright)

All-Americans: Bennie Oosterbaan (1927 & '28), Richard Doyle (1926), Harry Kipke (1924)

Pros: Kind of pre-dates that.

Story: Took over a young program and went 3-9 his first year, then tied for the Big Ten championship his second, winning his last 8 games of the season to tie Purdue and Wisconsin at the end. The 1926-'27 season, when Bennie Oosterbaan lent his talents, was the best; Michigan went 10-2 in-conference and 14-3 overall. Soon after that season Mather had major surgery for cancer, and wasn't the same after that. Yost coached the 1927-'28 team in Mather's name; the cancer claimed his life that August.

Thing: Mather was also a Yost football assistant, and two of his players later became football coaches.

Better than a Beilein: It's tough to judge that far back or guess what the future might have held, but he didn't have a nationally competitive team until his 8th year so I'm comfortable putting him behind.

[After the jump it gets tougher]

Dear Diary Watches Scoreboard

Dear Diary Watches Scoreboard

Submitted by Seth on March 28th, 2014 at 11:03 AM

Site note: Be here for the Liveblog tonight. Mods to your stations at 6:45; we'll get started at 7.

Vintage_SWEET_16_1920x1080

jonvalk (1/2)

I'll make this one quick.

Things to know about basketball

1. The defense has maybe taken a small step forward, and other observations about how basketball is like pro wrestling, from who else?

2. Michigan's offensive deviation isn't very large says LSA; they generally manage to keep their pace and score with relatively stable frequency. Score one against "defense wins championships because it's more consistent."

3. John Beilein is good at coaching it, whether he has 4-7 days to prepare for you, or you have only a couple of days to prep for him, via Mercury Hayes.

4. Purdue and Rutgers are not going to be good at it next year. Padog has begun a preview series for next year's conference teams, starting from the bottom. Northwestern is probably next followed by Penn State, but I'm looking forward to an Indiana preview sooner rather than later.

Best of the Board

QB BATTLE: THIS IS KNOWN

For those not still hitting snooze on football right now, BlueMooner went to the private dinner last week with Nussmeier and came back with generalities that amount to Gardner/Morris/Speight are who we thought they were. Also this:

Audience members posed questions about the comparison of recruiting in the SEC versus the B1G; Coach Saban compared to Hoke; and his intent to stay at UM over the long haul.  He adroitly dodged those with a splendid sense of humor.  The crowd was really enthusiastic about Coach Nussmeier in control of our offense.

You are welcome to read this as "Nussmeier wants to be a head coach someday" and "the SEC cheats more in recruiting." This too is known.

ATTENTION WAL-MART SHOPPERS

walmart

There are 394 items on walmart.com licensed from Michigan Wolverines and 369 for Michigan State Spartans. This should be a thing.

This is more of a link but Bacon addressed "Walmart Wolverines" on his blog this week. If you are an alumnus who has a problem with non-alumni rooting for your alma mater then you should read it.

My sense is that is next to none of you, and "Walverines" is a thing mostly generated by Sparties who don't like how people who didn't get into MSU bring up Michigan's marginal academic superiority. So Bacon is addressing the wrong crowd; on the other hand I'm not sure I want to advocate speaking sense to Spartans, because that totally works.

THE END OF COLLEGE SPORTS AND EVERYTHING

The CAPA decision touched off heated debate on the board, so heated that a second thread was warranted to exclude the money part that the Northwestern players aren't talking about. The debate came down to "better helmets and covering medical expenses down the road for athletes is good" versus "but schools that pretend to be D-I won't be able to live that way."

HAIL JUSTIN

Congrats are due to Justin Dickens, the guy who granted Heiko that interview with Borges and oversaw a dramatic shift in how bloggers are treated relative to other football media. He's not only an MGoBlog reader; he's now Director of Football Operations. This site's had a lot of criticism for Fort Schembechler but I have zero for Justin, who was given the impossible job of keeping both Dave Brandon and Brian Cook happy, and who despite that always made protecting the players his highest priority. I expect he'll succeed; I'm more anxious about who will succeed him.

Your Moment of Zen:

woodzen

Hokepoints States the Principle of B

Hokepoints States the Principle of B

Submitted by Seth on March 25th, 2014 at 10:09 AM

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Tourney face. [Fuller]

Beilein teams go further in the tournament than their seeds. This is known. We've repeated it so often that smart bracketeers even calculate it into their expectations. I've saved the "why" and "wherefore" of this effect for a roundtable question since that gets into the basketball strategy stuff that I'm weak in.

What I can do is build a pivot table out of multiple bits of data; in this case it was lots of schmearing and pasting, column breaks, and vlookups from sports-reference.com's bracket history and annual coaches records. The important lesson here is you're supposed to know it was hard.

UPDATE: Here's the raw data.

The first thing I tried was straight-up expectations by seed: top seeds are expected to get to the Final Four, 2-seeds to the Elite Eight; 3- and 4-seeds to the Sweet Sixteen; 5-, 6-, 7- and 8-seeds to the round of 32. The results had Beilein #5 after Brad Stevens of Butler, Sean Miller, and some Mizzou coaches who often had 9 seeds. That suggested there's a problem with my figuring:

wins over exp

I'm expecting 9 and 10 seeds to never advance so they're always in the positive; every time an 8 loses to a 9 it's a hit. The actual distribution is, unsurprisingly, progressive:

seed distribution

With over 1300 teams in my study there's very little deviation from the logarithm. It suggests, for all our complaining, that the committee does a pretty good job.

Seed Exp Wins Seed Exp Wins
1 3.21 9 0.66
2 2.41 10 0.53
3 1.94 11 0.42
4 1.60 12 0.32
5 1.34 13 0.23
6 1.13 14 0.14
7 0.95 15 0.06
8 0.79 16 0.00

Since I'm a history major who had to re-teach himself exponential functions this morning (if predicting basketball games required encyclopedic knowledge of Plantagenets I'd have Ken Pomeroy's job) please go easy on me if I dispense with the other stuff and just use the values Excel returned as a base expectation of tournament victories for each seed (at right). The formula according to Excel:

y= 1.1634Ln(x) + 3.2127

With an expectation for victories now I can get a reasonable comparison versus that, for example a 2-seed that advances to the Sweet 16 has 2 victories minus 2.41 expected = 0.41 fewer wins than they should have. The last thing was to remove coaches who've been to fewer than five tournaments. We're ready to rename March after a coach. But which one?

[Don't act all surprised; you knew I'd make you jump for it.]