iowa state

[This article was originally published on December 15, 2020. Two years and two weeks ago Michigan was in search of a new defensive coordinator, and possibly about to be in search of a head coach. The hottest new defense for stopping the hot new spread offenses proliferating through the Big XII was that pioneered by Iowa State's Matt Campbell and his DC Jon Heacock, who were the hottest names at the time for Michigan's opening/hypothetical opening. That was enough, at the time, for your hot new football strategies-obsessed author to write a primer on the defense, what personnel it uses, and how it works.

This 3-3-5 Flyover defense has since been adopted, more or less intact, by TCU coordinator Joe Gillespie. TCU runs it with "more interchangeable" linebackers, which is to say they couldn't find a faster WLB to fulfill that role. This relative lack of athleticism in the ILBs in a system that demands it from at least one of them is the reason why, as Alex Drain identified in FFFF, TCU has struggled with receiving RBs, passes up the seam, and edge attacks when their LBs are whipped in different directions.

I am republishing this article as a companion piece to Alex's film analysis so you can understand better what they're trying to do, and how that's led to many of the things Alex observed. Plus, only 5,160 of you read that piece, which is about how many read my CMU preview yesterday, if you're wondering how the football of the last two years has affected MGoBlog traffic. ICYMI the first time, here's the Soup Defense.]

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Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell and his defensive coordinator Jon Heacock were hot names in coaching circles long before Michigan fans began to consider bringing both or one them to Ann Arbor. I don't know if that's happening—honestly I'd place the odds under 10 percent. But it's a good excuse to talk about their three-high "Cyclone" or "Flyover" defense, why it's been successful against the high-flying spreads of the Big XII, and what offenses are doing to adapt to it.

THE NATURAL HISTORY OF FOOTBALL DEFENSE

When football was young, you could barely tell which side was on offense. But the advent of the single-wing caused spacing problems, solved when Michigan center Germany Schulz moved himself off the line of scrimmage. The 6-2 defense was originally just an anti-spread weapon but gradually became the base of most teams.

Virtually every defensive evolution since has followed this same pattern of converting thicker players up front into leaner and faster players further from the line of scrimmage. The 5-3 came about when they had to move a guard back to create a third linebacker to stop the Wing-T and early passing offenses. When pocket passing became possible due to rule changes, defenses answered by using hybrid linebackers as second safeties, then bowed to inevitable and called them safeties; the 5-2 was born. When that wasn't enough speed they converted the 5-2 variants into the 3-4 (replace both DEs with LBs) or 4-3 (replace the NG with a 3rd LB). Spread football in the early 21st century replaced fullbacks and 2nd tight ends with slot receivers, forcing defenses to become every-down 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 nickels.

That's where we've been.

THE PROBLEM

The reason ISU went to this defense was the Big XII is home to the spreadiest of the spreadiest. Tom Herman at Texas, Lincoln Riley of Oklahoma, Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State, Chris Klieman of Kansas State, Matt Wells of Texas Tech, and the offense WVU's Neal Brown inherited are all state-of-the-art spreads based on 4-wide sets, and stretching you vertically and horizontally. Baylor's Dave Aranda and TCU's Gary Patterson are defensive guys at heart but their OCs run similar spreads. Only Les Miles of Kansas—figures, right?—runs an offense more predicated on Bo's principles of moving people where you want them.

[After THE JUMP: The next evolution?]

Mike Macdonald is back in the NFL after one season of genius coordination in Ann Arbor. As understandable as that is, it also puts Michigan back in the market. I don’t know whom they’re targeting, but I can produce a list of names of varying plausibility. Note that making this list in no way should be interpreted to mean Michigan is looking at him, or that he would have any interest if they did. I’m compiling this based on names the fans are throwing around.

We know the internal candidates and don’t know whom Michigan’s spoken to yet, so I’ll start with the big names, and then keep moving down the list as they fall off the table. Who knows—last time I did this they went and got the first guy.

I’m more doubtful they will this time, but let’s say his name anyways, because it frightens the children.

LARRY FOOTE, TAMPA BAY(?)

CURRENT JOB: Outside linebackers coach, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SUMMARY: 42, brilliant up-and-coming NFL position coach and former star player for Michigan. Expected to be the DC pick under Byron Leftwich (currently the Bucs OC) when Leftwich gets an HC job. That could be any day if it’s Jacksonville.

History: Foote is the most Detroit person, a Pershing graduate who named his son Trammell and whose first tattoo was a 313. Throughout his career, Foote has come back to his city, and has been instrumental in keeping the Conant Gardens community going. He was a big part of the reason the entire city was rooting for Steelers over the Seahawks when Detroit hosted Super Bowl XL. Before that of course Foote was part of the legendary Michigan recruiting class of 1998 that included Drew Henson, David Terrell, Seth Fisher, Marquise Walker, and Victor Hobson, to name a few, and was the epitome of the tiny linebacker genre before Devin Bush Jr. took the mantle and Khaleke Hudson broke Foote’s single-game TFL record.

Foote finished his brilliant NFL career with the Arizona Cardinals in 2014, following former Ravens assistant Chuck Pagano with the offer of stepping into a coaching role after the season. Pagano made good on his promise; Foote was the assistant LBs coach in 2015, then was promoted to linebackers coach under James Bettcher, and stayed on through one year of Al Holcomb. He followed Pagano again to Tampa Bay in 2019, now under DC Todd Bowles (they overlapped in Zona in 2014), and there Foote won his first Super Bowl as a coach after two as a player. His next move is expected to be to NFL defensive coordinator, with Leftwich’s rise seeming an obvious route to that.

HISTORICAL DEFENSIVE RANKINGS: Tampa Bay was 6th, 5th, and 9th out of 32 teams in Football Outsiders’ comprehensive fancystat DVOA the last three years. They were 2nd, 2nd, 20th, and 12th in Foote’s four years of coaching in Arizona.

PLAYERS: Probably don’t need to throw all the names at you. Foote’s credited with turning Chandler Jones into a 1st team all-Pro in Arizona, developed Shaquil Barrett into a regular all-pro  and Jason Pierre-Paul into a new one at Tampa Bay, and probably had a hand in developing Lavonte David and Devin White into one of the best ILB pairs in the game.

CONNECTIONS: Played here with Bellamy (who’s a year younger than us). Outside of the Lions—which is such a terrible organization Foote had to stomp out of there in disgust after asking to complete his career at home—Ann Arbor is the closest job to home, and the heart is definitely there.

PROS: Up-and-coming defensive mind, would solidify Michigan’s credibility in Detroit and would be a big draw in recruiting. Brings another Carr guy in-house, though Foote hasn’t always caucused with that faction. Linebacker coach when we need LB coaching.

CONS: Hasn’t been in college since Foote received his degree just a few spots after Fisher in December 2002. Hasn’t been a defensive coordinator. Has never recruited.

SYSTEM FIT? The Bucs’ system is not that far off from the Ravens, in that there and in Arizona Foote was a part of defenses that really leaned on the secondary. They base out of a two-high and bring a lot of pressure from the OLBs or nickels. But very much unlike the Ravens, the Bucs’ defense really shined against the most dangerous offenses, crushing the Chiefs and the Brees-led Saints. Having Ndamukong Suh helps.

WOULD HE TAKE THE JOB? Probably not. Sam says Michigan’s reached out($), and Foote’s name will be pushed by the Carr Revolt, but I think Leftwich is getting the Jacksonville job and pulling Foote up with him. If that doesn’t happen though, yeah, it’s a real possibility.

When UV bullets keep expanding you must post them as posts.

Upchurch

I hit up Crisler for the first time this season to take in Michigan's 76-66 win over Iowa State; it wasn't that close. Michigan led by 20 for a good chunk of the second half before getting sloppy and letting ISU whittle the lead down to 8 or so; I got frustrated. KenPom is always watching.

Anyway, items. First, Eric Upchurch's photoset. (Thanks to the Ann Arbor Observer.)

Photos are Creative Commons licensed.

If you want it large, there is a link that takes you there.

THJ Face Pantheon addition. This is an all-timer.

Upchurch

McLimans is pretty good, too.

Speaking of the Bird. McLimans and Akunne put up ten points in the midst of a game-opening run that took Michigan from down two to a comfortable lead and we were all like "WTF." Via UMHoop's five key plays:

McLimans came in with a rep as a big who could shoot threes but has struggled to do so; with no other discernible skills that means bench. Akunne spells Burke at "point guard," though when he's in the offense doesn't run through him. Doesn't really run through anyone. They're making shots, though, especially Akunne.

The downside of Akunne's time is that it means someone else is struggling. That would be Vogrich, who's started the year off one of ten from three. When shooters can't shoot they can't play.

Novak's addition. Novak's added a pump fake and step-in midrange jumper to his arsenal this year that he's knocking down with excellent consistency. He has some awesome shooting numbers thus far: 12 of 19 from two, 13 of 28 from three.

Not to be outdone. Jordan Morgan is 20 of 25 on the season. Hit up the Five Key Plays to see his 12 points in the second half and note that only one bucket was the undefended throwdowns that seemed to be most of his points last year. He hit a jumper from the elbow, had a couple of baby hooks in the lane, and seems like a guy who can maybe generate some of his own offense from the post.

We'll have to see if he can continue this against quality competition. I mentioned this before but he seems to be tracking like DeShawn Sims, where he can blow up crappy defensive teams (with a lot of help from the pick and roll) but doesn't have the height or athleticism to deal with guys like those at UVA. This is maybe not good news against MSU later this year—Adreian Payne is approaching the top 100 in block rate. OTOH, he did have an efficient 12 against Duke's diverse Plumlees.

Burke and Morris. Holdin' The Rope on the divergent point guards:

I miss Morris's ability to get into the lane at will using his size but Burke's outside shooting and distribution is getting to be just as fun to watch. He will surely hit a rough patch or two at some point this season, but he seems to have the perfect demeanor to weather those storms. While Morris thrived on a sort of expletive-based verve, Burke is a cool customer. Both work, but the latter is particularly surprising for a freshman. The minutes he has been logging thus far is somewhat worrisome, however. I guess I'd have to go back and see what kinds of minutes Morris was getting last year (I'd imagine they were similar if not higher), but you'd imagine that Morris's body would be more capable of handling a long season, including a TOUGH Big Ten schedule. I actually didn't realize this until looking at the box score just now but apparently he went 3/11 from three, which: a) is not good and b) only in a Beilein offense can you shoot 11 threes and be okay.

Burke was 3 of 4 at one point before finishing on an 0-for-7 skid, which does lend some credence to the idea that he might be losing his legs. Nick Baumgardner:

Entering Saturday's home game against Iowa State (noon, BTN), Burke is averaging 31.6 minutes per game, third-most on the team. However, in Michigan's last six games, its freshman point guard is averaging nearly 34 minutes.

The problem Beilein is faced with is simple: Outside of Burke, who is averaging 11 points and 4.1 assists this season, the Wolverines have no other true viable point guard option. …

"If we had a true other point guard, we wouldn't be concerned," Beilein said. "When he's on the floor, he's one of our best guys to just run our offense. But he does need to get two to three minutes of rest every half. At least that's our plan."

Or it might mean nothing. We're early enough in the season that sample sizes are laughable. Burke went from a 42% three point shooter to 31% in those seven shots. Ask again later.

Q: where does the backup point come from? Next year's recruiting class is a post and a couple of 6'6" guys. Akunne is never going to get penetration; Michigan really needs Carlton Brundidge to develop into a viable option over the next year or so.

The truly important thing. Our long local annoyance is over: no longer does Crisler have "souvenir" and "large" options for soft drinks in which "large" is the smaller size. "Large" is now "regular" and I don't have to tell the teenager behind the counter that when I say large I want the large one, not the small one, who's on first. VICTORY

Half of the new Crisler. It is a massive improvement and I'm happy to report that rumors the seats were reminiscent of flying coach turns out not to be true. Room was sufficient. The place looks a lot better, which is step one. Step two is not being able to look around and think "the empty seats do look a lot better."

This week in terrible fan-spurning ideas. Crisler is going to be re-seated next year based on priority points. Are you really going to tell the guy in the third row who's been buying tickets for a decade that because he hasn't coughed up enough dough he gets booted to crappier seats?

This is man who has endured. He deserves our respect and admiration. Instead Dave Brandon puts his hand out. His drive to undermine fan loyalty is relentless.

Why always the terrible teams? I'm looking at the schedule. Michigan's small conference opponents by Kenpom rank: #117 Oakland, #217 Bradley, #289 WIU, #316 Arkansas Pine Bluff, #327 Alabama A&M, #331 Towson.

I know they're going to fill their schedule with some creampuffs but I wonder what the impact of having so many awful opponents has on the RPI. Towson is 0-7 and projected to go 3-27. Alabama A&M just lost to South Alabama but 23; they're in the SWAC and should go 9-9 in conference because the best team in the league is ranked #292. I'd rather see more Bradleys and Oaklands on the schedule, for both entertainment and RPI-jiggering purposes.