hoops opponent watch

[Sponsor Note (via Seth): You guys remember Larry Axelband, my IU fan friend who used to sponsor stuff? Well he’s helping to start a new daily fantasy sports and e-sports app for player props called ThriveFantasy, and offered to sponsor an MLB Opening Day freeroll for MGoBlog readers who want to try it. They’re also willing to match up to $50 of your first deposit if you choose to make one.

Of course, this came with a condition: Larry said he wants to read a new Opponent Watch. So this being the end of the basketball line for 14/14 Big Ten teams, I’ve drafted BiSB into a serious and thoroughly informative overview of the misery beyond our borders.

But first you should go draft! Or more specifically, choose 10 out of the 20 available prop bets (plus two in case of emergency props).

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Take the link, hit “Play Now” and jump in the $1,000 Freeroll. You have until 1:05 PM ET tomorrow (4/1) to get in, with a 100% deposit bonus up to $50 plus free entry in the $10k MLB Opening Day contest. We’ll also track anyone who entered from MGoBlog so we can see how you did against me. Download ThriveFantasy on your App Store or Play Store, or visit www.thrivefantasy.com. Sign up, PropUp, and Eat ‘Em Up!]

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/a door swings open. The author cautiously pokes his head around the corner. Many wise, serious people are in the room. They are somberly discussing important matters of state. Many large notepads and VHS tapes are being placed into boxes. A pot of coffee percolates on a small table. Everyone looks up.

“Hi guys.”

/the assembled brain trust seems confused, but only slightly annoyed. They return to their packing.

“Y’all want to hear a joke?”

/much scowling. A tomato is hurled from the back of the room.

About Last Night

Not yet.

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Texas Southern (17-9, 10-3 SWAC)

What Happened: ‘Twas a stupid game. Hunter Dickinson got a Sixth Grader Playing With The Third Graders whistle. Michael Weathers shorts were too short.

Like every #1-#16 game other than that one #1-#16 game, it will be forgotten. But let the record show that there were points in the second half of this game where Michigan fans were nervous. Because we are always nervous. clip_image002

LOOK, THINGS GOT TIGHT, OKAY???

LSU (19-10, 11-6 SEC)

What Happened: Will Wade, master of five-dimensional chess, came up with a brilliant game plan: tall springy man get buckets.

And for the first five minutes, this was effective. But eventually Michigan’s stubborn insistence on doin’ stuff won out.

Florida State (18-7, 11-4 ACC)

What Happened: Is “Trogdor’d” a verb? Because Michigan Trogdor’d Florida State. Michigan jumped out to a 19-8 lead, which never got tighter than 5 the rest of the way.

That was the end of Michigan’s tournament run, after the rest was cancelled. Because it was haunted.

[After THE JUMP: Big Ten Tournament teams versus the cast of Super Troopers.]

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Non-Conference Opponents

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Iowa State - #3 Seed, East

Other than the Raiders of the Lost Ark-style rolling boulder of death that is Michigan State, it’s a pretty favorable draw for Iowa State. They get North Carolina Central, North Carolina Classic, and Villanova (which is probably in North Carolina, but I don’t feel like checking). They have the horses to run with anyone (Melvin Ejim was the Big 12 player of the year over Andrew Wiggins). I’ve got them in the Final Four, despite none of these games being played at Hilton.

Dook - #3 Seed, Midwest

Enter video caption here

If both survive, Michigan will meet Duke in the Sweet 16. This one will be in Indianapolis, which is a long way from Cameron. That should help. But Jabari Parker will be there. So that won’t help.

Arizona - #1 Seed, West

The tournament’s second overall seed, they might kind of have a cakewalk through their region. Wisconsin hasn’t been past the Sweet 16 in a decade. Neither San Diego State nor Oklahoma is particularly scary. Creighton has the potential to be an aerial death-bringer, but if Doug McDermott doesn’t have four good nights in a row it’s hard to see Creighton in the Final Four, and four good nights in a row is asking a lot.

I wouldn’t worry too much about late season losses to Oregon and to UCLA in the PAC 12 tournament; this is a team that seems to have found some balance and returned to form.

Stanford - #10 Seed, South

Stanford returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time in six seasons, ensuring in the process that Michigan DID beat a tournament team in the non-conference schedule. Their opening round matchup with New Mexico features two of the biggest teams in the country. If they survive that matchup, they get also-tall (though Embiid-less) Kansas. Tough to see them making it to the Sweet 16, but they probably accomplished their goal for the season, so it’s house money from here on in.

Florida State #1-seed, NIT

Womp womp.

In Which We Look At Brackets

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To clarify, this is NOT A RANKING, and should not be deemed an attempt to supplant the wisdom of Angry Michigan KenPom Defiance Hating God. It is simply a rundown of tournament teams, and the natural way to list such teams is by seed order.

Again, for the avoidance of doubt: not a ranking. Just a list. Organized by seed.

Michigan - #2 Seed, Midwest

Opening Round: vs. #15 Wofford. The Terriers were 20-12 in the Southern Conference. They have one KenPom top-200 win this year… against #200 Elon. Ace has you covered with a preview, but sufficed to say that this one is not scary, which should scare you, because it is March.

The Draw: Gets the winner of Texas/Kansas Arizona State [ED: Must avenge bowl game...] in the second round, probably #3 Duke in the Sweet 16, and probably the winner of #1 Wichita State and #4 Louisville in the Elite 8.

Thing: It’s a rough draw to after the opening weekend, that’s for damn sure. My theory is that the Committee basically said that if they HAD to give Wichita State a 1-seed, they would. And they threw them in a region with their second highest 2 seed (a team that was in the running for a 1-seed like an hour before the brackets came out), and their highest-rated 3, 4, 7, 8, and 9 seeds. Subtle, that.

Thing They Are Like: A team with some unfinished business.

Burke Siva_thumb[1]

[AFTER THE JUMP: More teams playing in various tournaments. Also Indiana]

Non-Conference Schedule

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RPI Effect Only Teams

UMass-Lowell lost to… aw, screw it. GRIII things.

 

Big Sorts of Teams

Iowa State (23-7, 11-7 Big 12)

This week: Beat Oklahoma State (85-81 OT)

Based on a the interweb mock brackets, there’s a fair-to-moderate chance that Michigan might get another shot at Iowa State, this time outside the friendly magical confines of the Hilton Arena Convention Center thingy. The Committee generally dislikes rematches, but right now Michigan is a high 2-seed and Iowa State is a low 3 seed, so it could happen.

If they DO end up as a 3-seed, they can thank Oklahoma State’s failure to come over to #TeamFoul. OSU was up 3 when they missed a free throw with five seconds left. So, instead of fouling, they gave a 39% three-point shooter (Naz Long) an open look. He promptly tied the game. If you were curious, Long is a 62.5% free throw shooter.  FOUL, MAN. FOUL

Florida State (18-12, 9-9 ACC)

This week: Lost to Syracuse (74-58)

Buh-bye.

#7 Dook (24-7, 13-5 ACC)

This week: Beat North Carolina (93-81)

Like Iowa State, Duke is another possible Sweet 16 matchup for Michigan (they’re currently projected at around a 3 seed). Like Iowa State, a hypothetical rematch would be on neutral turf instead of a very hostile road venue. Unlike Iowa State, please don’t make us play these bastards again.

#4 Arizona (28-3, 15-3 PAC 12)

This week: Lost at Oregon (64-57)

Yeah, they lost to Oregon, but unless they lose their quarterfinal matchup to Utah, they’re a lock for a 1-seed. KenPom has them as 7 point favorites to get there, though Utah did play them close twice (including an OT game in February). And even if they lose that game they’re probably STILL a 1-seed.

Stanford (19-11, 10-8 PAC 12)

This week: Beat Utah (61-60)

They’re probably in. But I’m more concerned about KenPom’s description of their defense:

Stanford

“Coach, can you explain your defensive philosophy in the second half?”

“Well, we didn’t think we were very effective in man-to-man, so we went with what we call our ‘shiny object’ set, which is sort of a hybrid man/zone concept where everyone just kinda guards the person near them until they see someone else open and then they guard that person for a while. Or if they get bored or want to be on the other side of the court for a while, they can do that too. The closest traditional comparison would be a triangle and one with a single-high safety.”

[Jump]