Summer 2015 Survey Results

Summer 2015 Survey Results

Submitted by Seth on August 24th, 2015 at 10:19 AM

We had a survey, 3,556 people responded to it. We learned some things about them:

1. They only get to a few games

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The average was two a year but the split is more like 26% go to no games, 36% get to one, and 38% get to more than one.

2. Most don't have season tickets

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Four in five (79%) responders don't. Also, when these were run against the previous question season, ticket holders averaged 5.05 games a year, while non-season ticket holders went to 1.11 per year. Season ticket holders were then asked if they would have renewed if Michigan had kept Hoke. Most (68 percent) would but even 32 percent "no" is ominous:

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3. There's a clear preference for ADs

Rating Brandon %RS Hackett %RS
1 (bad) 1488 42% 17 0.5%
2 (poor) 1654 47% 0 0%
3 (meh) 322 9% 28 1%
4 (okay) 33 1% 426 12%
5 (good) 19 0.5% 3040 87%
[no response] 40 - 45 -
Avg. 1.70 - 4.84 -

On overwhelming majority (almost 90%) of respondents gave Brandon a 1 or a 2. Conversely, Hackett cleaned up; among Michigan fans just 17 people who are impossible to please out of 3400 is some kind of magic. Brian demanded I combine these in a bar graph.

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Ace: "That is beautiful."

Brian: "See? Bar graphs!"

4. Harbaugh?

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Harbaugh has some catching up to do on his boss, at a still really positive approval rating of 4.27 out of 5. Then again Hackett has already reeled in a 5-star while I guess Harbaugh has yet to do so.

5. As for his predecessor

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Yes.

6. They'll pay more for better opponents, but not too much.

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What they have now is about what the market wants to bear.

7. What they want to wear

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Either the readership didn't understand that Underground Printing is our t-shirt guys and this would essentially mean MGoBlog gets to design all the uniforms, or they understood too well. Anyway UGP barely beat Under Armour, probably because they're the only company other than Nike that spells their name right.

8. Who they'd like to play

You're going to have to click this one I think:

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Notre Dame is the obvious one, and the next-most popular was Harbaugh taking a shot at his old team. Stanford makes a lot of sense in fan type, location worth visiting, old history, and a team we haven't seen much of. LSU would be great too though it probably will be less fun (and less easy) once Les and Cam are out of there. The Pac and SEC were easily the most desirable conferences. A breakdown:

Conference Votes
SEC 3587
Pac 12 3139
ACC (no ND) 1312
Notre Dame 1122
Big XII 452

The games already scheduled weren't included, otherwise I'm sure the interest in Texas and Oklahoma would shoot the Big XII back up to at least ACC levels, while Washington and Colorado could put the Pac 12 on equal footing with the SEC.

Dear Diary is the Problem With Michigan

Dear Diary is the Problem With Michigan

Submitted by Seth on October 3rd, 2014 at 12:50 PM

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I'm taking down the office now. [Fuller]

Open letters to people who don't read them isn't exactly productive, but it's useful in a snowflakey kind of way. The MGoPostal service delivered a few of note: JeepinBen gives the next coach the correct answers to the Michigan questions. A guy emailed Schlissel our complaint list about Dave Brandon. A wealthy alum says to Schlissel or whoever that hubris is the problem.

You can read a form reply from the president's office here. Brandon at least had the courtesy to provide a personal response to a lady canceling her long-held season tickets [UPDATED: this was apparently sent last December].

How to have a happy life. A few diarists looked a the qualities that seem to lead to success in a head coaching change. That first is a look at the coaching histories of Michigan, OSU, Bama, ND and USC with particular attention paid to whether guys with connections to the university had more success (they didn't).

The second starts by making a comparison of Bo to Stoops and goes on to sort out some common threads in other coaching changes. He came upon the same thing I did when trying to identify common threads in successful transitions: whatever side of the ball you don't know, just keep the coordinator from the old regime.

I would have been dead set against it at the time but in retrospect RR perhaps could have saved himself a lot of problems with the old guard by retaining Ron English. Or that could have led to an even bigger explosion when he fired English instead of Shafer for not running a 3-3-5 or getting along with Gibson. But imagine Michigan right now if Hoke had retained Calvin Magee, which we were VERY MUCH hoping for.

[After the jump, profiles of guys for Hoke's job; why head trauma is a thing and wasn't before]

One Frame At A Time: Fire Hoke

One Frame At A Time: Fire Hoke

Submitted by Ace on September 29th, 2014 at 1:33 PM

These are actual quotes from Brady Hoke's presser this afternoon. I could not make them up if I tried, because they are appalling. Click the stills to open each GIF in a lightbox.

“I know there’s been a lot of talk, speculation, innuendos, whatever.” — Brady Hoke.

"We would never, ever, put a guy on the field when there's a possibility of head trauma." — Brady Hoke.


LOOK AT THE PLAY CLOCK

THIS IS NOT MICHIGAN

THIS IS NOT MICHIGAN

Submitted by Brian on September 29th, 2014 at 9:24 AM

9/27/2014 – Michigan 14, Minnesota 30 – 2-3, 0-1 Big Ten

Brady Hoke is too incompetent to be Michigan's coach. He's too incompetent to be responsible for 85 kids who might get badly hurt at any moment. Hell, he's too incompetent to run a Hooters. Do not eat the chicken at Brady Hoke Hooters. That's not chicken.

And that's the nice way to interpret the information presented to us. It's one thing when Michigan is sending out ten guys in their dinosaur punt formation, one thing when they have the country's worst offense relative to available hyped recruits two years running. It's one thing when Michigan is pretending to try by getting Devin Funchess's ankle mangled in the waning moments of a 31-0 game. These are all fireable offenses, but year-end fireable offenses.

It's another thing when the Yakety Sax chaos that has come to symbolize the Hoke regime puts one of Hoke's "115 sons" in danger, as it did Saturday.

Shane Morris had just taken a headshot from a defensive end. He momentarily lost the ability to use his limbs. There was no real reason for him to be in the game anyway, what with his 49 passing yards and air of being totally overwhelmed. And Hoke threw him out there, because he "didn't see" his quarterback stagger onto one of his offensive linemen.

Even if that implausible excuse is true, somebody did. The announcers did. Doug Nussmeier—who was desperately trying to get his quarterback to fall on the ground—did. There were 80,000 people still in the stadium looking at the quarterback, and

EVERY

GODDAMNED

ONE

OF

THEM

knew Shane Morris had just had a very bad thing happen to his brain. When he was left in, they booed vociferously. This is where we're at: the guys booing in the stands are doing so because they fear for the players' health.

This is a long, long way from the "they ain't got no heart" guys from the Rodriguez era. Booing is now the only agency you have when something reprehensible is going on in front of your face. It's gone from childish to necessary.

Brady Hoke had no idea, and even more damningly nobody on his sideline had the sense to overrule the guy who purports to be the head coach. Some guys started yelling at Russell Bellomy to get his helmet on when Gardner lost his a couple plays after entering; Bellomy tried about 50 because he never dreamed he'd go in a game again. Morris re-entered the game. Did he have a concussion?

"Shane's a pretty competitive, tough kid. Shane wanted to be the quarterback. Believe me, if he didn't want to be, he would've come to the sideline, or stayed down."

That is unacceptable. Brady Hoke should have been fired walking off the field.

-------------------------------------

Dave Brandon is too stupid to be Michigan's athletic director. After a day-long lambasting culminating in ABC's World News Tonight slamming the program, they released a breathtakingly tone-deaf statement that is a flat-out lie.

We generally never discuss the specifics of a student-athlete's medical care, but Shane Morris was removed from yesterday's game against Minnesota after further aggravating an injury to his leg that he sustained earlier in the contest

This is how Shane Morris aggravated his leg injury.

Who are you going to believe, Dave Brandon and his lawyers or your lying eyes?

It does not matter whether Morris was concussed or not. What matters is that Shane Morris showed obvious signs of a concussion immediately after taking a wicked head shot and was permitted to stay in the game, then re-entered some 90 seconds after departing, well before any serious concussion check could be completed. The NFL's process takes 8-12 minutes. The NHL requires players suspected to have sustained a concussion to be removed from the ice and taken to a quiet place for evaluation.

Michigan was flagrantly negligent about Shane Morris's safety. Period.

And then they lied about it. To your face. Because they think you're too fucking dumb to do anything about it.

Michigan's athletic department has been insulting the intelligence of their fans for years with offended statements about how they weren't really going to do the thing they said they were going to do and the thing you're mad about definitely is your fault, not theirs. That was bad enough for petty things like noodles; this is the athletic department lying to the nation about a matter of real import.

This opinion is universal outside a small corps of true believers who have inexplicable faith in the people who are just in charge of the Michigan athletic department.  Hoke has been condemned by the ESPN announcers, Deadspin, Business Insider, Yahoo, Andy Staples, Nick Baumgardner, Wojo, Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel, USA Today's Nicole Auerbach, CBS, CBS again, USA Today's George Schroeder and virtually every other person to offer an opinion about college football this year. Hell, a news program aimed at olds did a segment on it, just after they talked about ISIS.

The die has been cast. Until Brady Hoke and Dave Brandon are removed from this program, This Is Michigan: incompetent liars.

I can't stand by and watch this anymore.

----------------------------

This program is broken. The coach is too dumb to be in charge of other people. The athletic director is so loathed that when the remainder of the student section started to chant something after the concussion fiasco, they went with "FIRE BRANDON." Tickets go for two cokes, and that's too expensive.

Stephen Ross is defending Brandon, and I feel helpless. The thing I love most in the world has been held hostage by unacceptable people. So I'm going to do two things.

I'M NOT GOING TO THE MARYLAND GAME. (Unless Hoke and Brandon are gone.) This is going to break a home attendance streak dating back to the 1997 opener, when I was a freshman, but it's the only thing I can do to show my disgust at the state of the program. I'm not selling my ticket—not that I could sell it for anything. I am eating it. I urge you to do the same. Yeah, it sucks for the players. I am more concerned about sending a message about the program as a whole than making anyone feel bad.

#boycottmaryland

Do it for all of us. I hate it with the fury of a thousand suns, but this is the only thing we have left.

I'M RUNNING FOR REGENT IN 2016. I don't know how or with who yet, but the  board of regents is a broken institution that privately conspires to vote unanimously in favor of everything, in violation of the law. They accepted the presence of Dave Brandon; they run the worst FOIA office in the country; they are supposed to be the check on an increasingly overpaid and unaccountable administrative class at Michigan. They are failures.

Leaders and best. I still believe that. Goddammit, I do. I started the Every Three Weekly with Amol Parulekar and Mike Chu and Paul Malewitz and Michigan allowed that to happen despite it being an obviously not-great idea for them. I learned how to code; I didn't go to my discrete math class for the entire semester and that was cool; I got my brain rearranged by Stephen Kaplan in an immensely productive way. Michigan is awesome. It is awesome in spite of the people in charge of the university's front door.

I love this place, which gave me my education, livelihood, and wife. I am going to do the thing I can to try to help it.

morris-cart

Because this is not Michigan.

[After THE JUMP: more reasons to fire Brady Hoke.]

Hokepoints PSA: Always MIKE Before You Hike

Hokepoints PSA: Always MIKE Before You Hike

Submitted by Seth on August 21st, 2014 at 11:02 AM

tom brady pointing

Tom always MIKEs before he hikes.

We here at MGoheadquarters recently received some disturbing news about today's youth:

Kids these days are running around playing three or four years of Division I FBS major conference Block-M-Michigan football without ever identifying the MIKE. !. This sudden revelation has caused widespread histeria. Al Borges has been fired 180 times in the last several hours, and right now Dave Brandon and key personnel are closed off with Rich Rodriguez, deciding whether he needs to get a superfluous extra axe as well. This is calamitous. Catastrophic. Grievous. Pernicious. Regrettable. And avoidable.

What in the name of Double-Pointing Brady Hoke are you people talking about?

MIKE (v.): The act of identifying the middle defender inside the box on the 2nd level for purposes of establishing protection assignments.

It's basically calling out the defense's alignment, using a very simple mechanism: declare one linebacker—the one in the middle of the defense—to be a fifth guy that the five linemen are responsible for blocking.

HENNE POINT UM OSU fbc lew
Chad always MIKEs before he hikes.

This is often, but by no means always, the middle linebacker, which many defenses call a "Mike," which is where the term comes from. This is important: the [guy playing the defensive position called] Mike doesn't get to be all-time MIKE. In fact the very reason we MIKE is because Mike the Mike might not be the MIKE, and not knowing this might get your quarterback very badded.

Why is MIKEing important to my children?

Because if the MIKE blitzes there's no way for outside protection to pick him up, so the offensive line has to assign everybody's blocking with that guy accounted for somehow. Defenses LOOOOOOOOVE to screw with this because that's how you get unblocked blitzers, and unblocked blitzers right through the heart of the OL are the best!

When the defense screws with you, you don't have time to point at everybody and say "you block him; you block him." So ONE guy calls out the MIKE and everyone else in the blocking scheme already knows what that means. Usually they call out what sounds like a playcall—it's just a blocking call. "Tango!" "Lightning!" "Red!" "Green!"  "Taupe Carpet!"*

hi-res-c2d55737f7ea6824fe33d1306bd7b887_crop_exact
Brian always MIKEs before he hikes. [James Squire|Getty]

Like in running, pass pro can be man or zone (slide protection). Man makes sure every defender who could be blitzing has a guy assigned to block him (or as is often the case, a man who checks one guy then looks to another). In zone they're blocking gaps: A gap, B gap, C gap, etc. Whatever protection scheme, they have to "declare the MIKE." What they do from there depends on the scheme.

----------------------

* My dad used colors/nonsense words for playcalls: Blue Jumbo, Yellow Turbo, Purple Eskimo etc. Since he didn't like to use the same "play" twice he got pretty deep into the crayola box before parents' complaints in re: his Lombardi cigar ended his coaching career.

----------------------

[After the jump, Y U NO MIKE, DG?, and you learn to MIKE]

Upon Further Review 2010: Defense vs Illinois

Upon Further Review 2010: Defense vs Illinois

Submitted by Brian on November 10th, 2010 at 5:23 PM

Formation notes: More of the same mad scientist business, with Michigan rolling out a 3-4, a 4-3, and a 3-3-5 on various occasions. With Roh's move to the defensive line the fourth "defensive lineman" in the 4-3 was either Obi Ezeh or JB Fitzgerald, which had predictable results. Michigan seemed to save the stack mostly for spread alignments and used the other two in more traditional situations.

Substitution notes: The secondary was Vinopal, Rogers, Avery, and Kovacs the whole way. Fitz and Ezeh seemed to get equal time at the OLB/DE spot, with Cam Gordon getting maybe 80% of the time at spur. Thomas got some snaps. Demens and Mouton went the whole way at MLB. On the line Martin, RVB, and Roh started; Patterson, Black, and Banks spotted them periodically.

Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O33 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-3 Light Run Triple option pitch N/A 11
So Michigan comes out in a four man line with Fitzgerald as a standup DE, Mouton and Demens behind them, and Gordon flexed out over the slot receiver. Kovacs is rolled up a bit so it's like 6.5 guys in the box. Avery is at FS with Vinopal over the slot. Illinois goes to their bread and butter and Michigan is badly outflanked. The way they've lined up against it I don't think they can stop either the dive or the pitch (RPS -2). Kovacs is taking off for the backside of the play; Mouton is sitting on the dive because I think he has to, and Cam Gordon's on the edge with a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. He crashes on Scheelhaase; pitch back wide open. I'm not sure who to minus, so the RPS just has to stand. I guess I do think Rogers could have kept LeShoure from getting outside of him and held this under a first down so -0.5.
O44 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide tight 4-3 Light Pass Cross Demens 4
RVB(+0.5, pressure +1) swims through a double team and comes up the middle of the field, forcing Scheelhaase to dump it. Jenkins is a dangerous YAC guy that Demens(+0.5) is tracking through the zone; he makes a diving tackle after two. Jenkins can fall forward but that's a pretty good play in space.
O48 2 6 Pistol FB twins 4-3 Light Run Power dive Mouton 4
FB charges through a hole that's massive as Fitz(-0.5) gets kicked out and Martin slants outside. A guard pulls around to get a hat on Demens, which happens somewhat close to the LOS. That block is not tested as Mouton(+0.5) takes on the FB about a yard downfield, giving the RB the impression he should hit it outside. Mouton fights through the block and gets help from a filling Kovacs(+0.5); the pair tackles.
M48 3 2 I-form big 4-3 Light Run Down G Fitzgerald 5
No chance of stopping this power formation with this set of personnel on the field; they run right at Fitz(-1), who comes inside as a guard pulls around and gets plowed. He actually does a good job to get off the block and force the play back inside, where Kovacs and some linemen tackle. Michigan got caught shooting both linebackers up the middle of the field and left an obvious vulnerability open. RPS -1.
M43 1 10 Ace 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Roh 1
3-4 look is less goofy in terms of personnel. Illinois runs an inside zone; Roh(+1) flows down the line to shut off the hole and Martin(+1) reads the direction of the RB, slowing up and cutting inside his blocker instead of getting pulled down the line as if it's a stretch. The two converge to tackle at the LOS.
M42 2 9 Shotgun trips Base 3-4 Pass 4 Hitch Mouton 11
Gordon blitzes off the edge for a fourth rusher. Everyone's picked up, massive pocket (pressure -1); Scheelhaase finds a receiver in between three guys in the zone (cover -1). I think this is a bad drop from Mouton(-0.5), as Demens is going with one receiver on his little cross and Fitz is moving out to get the flat.
M31 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-3 Light Run Triple option dive Black 4
Black in. Black(-0.5) shoots upfield and opens up the dive but at least recovers enough to force the RB inside a bit, where Demens(+0.5) can fight through the free release of the playside tackle to hit the tailback after a few yards; help arrives.
M27 2 6 Shotgun trips Base 3-4 Pass 4 Scramble Patterson 10
Michigan covers(+1) a series of short hitches perfectly; Patterson(-2, pressure -2) gets way out of his rush lane, ending up next to Black, and gives Scheelhaase a wide open lane he exploits for the first.
M17 1 10 Shotgun 2TE Base 4-4 Pass 4 Throwaway Van Bergen Inc
Kovacs rolls up. Illinois runs mesh and both linebackers cover it(+1) so Scheelhaase doesn't have his first read. He can't get his second because Van Bergen(+0.5) drove into the backfield and got a hand up, causing a scramble and eventually a throwaway.
M17 2 10 Pistol FB twins Base 4-4 Run Triple option pitch Demens 0
Michigan stunting here, sending Roh inside of the DTs, which causes Scheelhaase to keep and sends Roh right into the hypothetical dive. Gordon(+1) gets out on Scheelhaase immediately, forcing a very quick pitch that Demens(+1) is assigned. In space with a good back, Demens comes up quickly but under control, forms up, doesn't bite on two different fakes, and delays LeShoure until he has to take off and get what he can. Rogers(+0.5) came in after a while to tackle but this is Demens making a play in space. (Tackling +1, RPS +1)
M17 3 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass Scramble Roh 9 (Pen -10)
Roh(+2) smokes the Illini RT to the inside and forces Scheelhaase to scramble; would have been worse for UI if the RT hadn't held Roh up, drawing a flag. Scheelhaase scrambles for near first down yardage because Demens(-0.5) overran the scramble by getting too aggressive on an underneath WR. (Pressure +2)
M27 3 20 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass FB screen Martin Inc
Martin(+1) comes through the line even faster than they want on a screen, nailing the fullback in the backfield and eventually sending him to the ground. Scheelhaase has no one to throw to and just gets rid of it. (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: FG(44), 7-3, 9 min 1st Q. This isn't awful, really. Only the first play was a groaner. Everything else is understandable or actually good.
M47 1 10 Pistol FB twins 3-3-5 stack Pass PA corner Rogers 34
Triple option fake with McGee at QB and he pulls up to throw. We never get a good replay but Michigan is in cover three here and Rogers is going with the outside guy on a post instead of coming off on a guy running a corner route 25 yards downfield, so I think this is on him (cover -3, -2). McGee got plowed by Martin as he threw so no pressure minus.
M13 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run Zone read keeper Ezeh 4
Ezeh in for Fitz at OLB. Mouton actually in the middle on this play. Roh comes down so Scheelhaase pulls it, but he's to the short side and he's got two WRs out there so Ezeh(+0.5) and Avery(+0.5) don't have a ton of room to close down once they come off their blocks, which they both do ably. With not much room and two guys coming at him Scheelhaase can't get much more than three.
M19 2 6 I-form 4-3 light Run Down G -5
Again going right at Fitz/Obi; here Obi gets blown off the ball. I can't tell if this is going to be nothing or a touchdown; Mouton(+0.5) gets outside of the pulling T and is either going to tackle for nothing or the RB is going to run right by him because Kovacs(-1) went way too far upfield and created a huge hole. We'll never know because the RB drops the ball and Michigan recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-3, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M33 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Run Zone read keeper Mouton 4
Roh(+0.5) is shuffling down the line and should have a handoff dead to rights if it's actually made but pulls off when he sees the RB doesn't have the ball. I think Mouton(-1) is supposed to be scraping outside but he doesn't read the play quickly and gets blocked by the RT, leaving Kovacs to fill quickly and cut off the outside; Mouton is flowing down the line and when Scheelhaase cuts back he bangs into the LT, allowing Roh to tackle from behind.
M29 2 6 I-form twins 4-3 Light Run Down G Kovacs 3
Again going at the LB/DE substance. Illinois gets everyone blocked but Avery and Mouton take on their blocks appropriately and Kovacs(+0.5) is in overhang mode, so he crashes down in the relatively small gap to make a solid tackle after a meh gain.
M26 3 3 Shotgun trips bunch 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Flare Kovacs 0
Illinois slides their protection away from the spur and Gordon blitzes, getting in free immediately(RPS +1, pressure +1); dumpoff on the swing route as Kovacs is undercutting the slant. Kovacs moves to the swing and attacks. He whiffs but he whiffs to the outside and forces the RB to come to a near-complete stop. Mouton whiffs, Avery whiffs, Roh and Demens come in to clean up.  Kovacs +1 for an angle that allowed the gang tackle. BWS picture-paged this.
Drive Notes: FG(43), 7-6, 3 min 2nd Q. Gallon fumbles the ensuing kickoff.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M32 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-3 Light Run Power dive Mouton 3
Mouton(+1) attacks the leading fullback at the line, shedding him to the outside and forcing the RB back to his help. Still a big hole because Patterson(-1) got blown up; Demens(+0.5) scrapes to tackle without getting a blocker; it's clear the pulling guard did not expect Mouton to do this and had to improvise in space; he ends up blocking no one.
M29 2 7 Ace 4-wide tight 3-3-5 stack Pass N/A PA rollout cross Kovacs 13
Fake pitch with Scheelhaase rolling out. Kovacs is attacking but then pulls off, which is smart because there's a guy coming to the sideline right behind him. Unfortunately, as Scheelhaase nears the LOS Kovacs(-1, cover -1) blows his earlier good work by coming up and opening up a little flip pass at the sideline. This was going to gain yards either way but Mouton was coming, too, and it would have been less damaging to allow the scramble.
M16 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Black 9
Zone read look; Ezeh is the contain and forces a handoff. Major problem here is Black(-1) flowing way too fast down the line of scrimmage on the backside, giving the RB a cavernous cutback lane behind him and away from any of the linebackers. I think Ezeh(-0.5) does come up too hot and makes the read and cutback easy, but there's a lot of room.
M7 2 1 I-form big Base 3-4 Run Down G Ezeh 4
3-4 look but the same idea from Illinois: run at the guy out of position, which is still Ezeh(+1). This time he's not getting blocked at the line because of the alignment and gets into the pulling G in the backfield, which cuts off the interior hole. Black(+0.5) helped by not getting blown out this time. Ezeh then pops out to rub the FB, making it a tough bounce for the tailback and hypothetically a no gain. Kovacs(-1) is caught off guard by this development and takes an angle inside, then overruns it; he does tackle but this was set up to be a better play by Ezeh.
M3 1 G I-form big Base 3-4 Run Iso Martin 1
Nothing in the middle with Martin(+2) shucking the C, moving past a G trying to block him, and absorbing the lead block. RB cuts back, where three separate M players are with just one guy to block; they do an adequate job of getting him down. The cutback does gain a yard.
M2 2 G Goal line Goal line Pass N/A PA rollout scramble Demens 0
This is more run than pass here, I think, with just one option in the endzone, and that one decently covered by Mouton(+0.5, cover +1), though I think a more confident QB tries this. Scheelhaase is on the edge; Gordon(+0.5) bumps the underneath receiver and gets outside, cutting off the corner. This allows Demens(+1, tackling +1) to flow hard from the interior, grabbing the QB at the LOS and allowing Gordon to pound him for no gain. Gordon brings a physical intimidation factor the other two spurs don't.
M2 3 G Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run QB draw Kovacs 2
Ezeh(+1) blitzes right into the play, taking out the RB and the pulling guard and hypothetically giving Kovacs(-2) a free shot on Scheelhaase on an obvious playcall here, but Kovacs is wandering out towards the tight end for some reason and instead of a thumping TFL and a field goal Michigan gets scored on.
M3 2pt 2pt Shotgun twins 2TE Base 4-3 Pass 6 Cross Vinopal 3
A rubtastic rub route with rubbing rubs, although Illinois does it so that it's all on the up and up. Vinopal is in man over the slot guy and has to take slight deviations around one of his own men and an Illinois receiver, which is just enough for the Illini receiver to get into the endzone; Michigan sent six and was closing in with two guys just as Scheelhaase, who's had to back ten yards off the LOS,throws. Good coverage, good pressure, good play from Illinois. Nothing to get despondent about here.
Drive Notes: Touchdown(2PT), 7-14, 14 min 2nd Q. Comin' up: despondency!
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O46 1 10 I-form twins 4-3 Light Run Inside zone Kovacs 6 (Pen -10)
Martin(+1) beats his man to the inside and is tackled, drawing a holding call. Play goes outside anyway, where there's no one blocking Kovacs after Fitzgerald does a mediocre job and Avery gets kicked out. Kovacs(-1) takes a crappy angle and can only make a desperate ankle tackle(-1) after two yards, giving the RB another four.
O36 1 20 Pistol FB 3-wide 4-3 Light Run Triple option pitch Mouton 64
Martin limps off the field after the last play. Determining blame on this one is difficult because it's hard to tell whose assignment is whose.If Kovacs is blitzing the dive he's fine. If he's blitzing the QB he makes a fatal mistake by getting sucked inside by the slot blocker and removing himself from contain. If he's blitzing the dive Mouton is at fault for not scraping over the top. Vinopal comes up and forces a pitch. He should be taking the pitch guy, who's most dangerous; Mouton is flowing from the inside after sucking in and has an angle to tackle after about 15 yards but inexplicably slows up and allows the RB to run past him, turning a frustrating gain into an enormous touchdown. Kovacs –3, as later we'll see these blitzes are to contain the QB; Mouton –3 for a really poor missed tackle(-2) that doesn't even slow the RB and turns a gain into a TD.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-21, 11 min 2nd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O30 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Triple option pitch ??? 14
This one is just broken. Kovacs rolls up to the line and blitzes, forcing an immediate pitch from Scheelhaase, and then there's no one on the pitch. Mouton is again the closest linebacker to the pitch and is not getting out on it. (RPS -2)
O44 1 10 I-form twins 4-4 Light Run Off tackle Demens 5
Ezeh(-1) single blocked and buried as a DE, but that's not really his fault. This allows Illinois to downblock Martin and get a free release on Mouton. Avery has to contain against a lead blocker. Demens(+1) is about to take a cut block when he takes a step back, dodging it, and flows down the line past the Mouton blowup to tackle after on a play where everyone on offense had an easy play because Ezeh is not a DE. (RPS -1)
O49 2 5 Shotgun 2-back 4-3 Light Pass 4 Dumpoff Gordon 1
McGee at QB. His first read is covered(+1) and then Black comes around on a stunt up the middle and he has to dump it. Gordon(+1, tackling +1) is there as the ball is brought in and cuts the RBs legs out as he turns upfield.
50 3 4 Shotgun trips bunch 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Hitch Demens Inc
Demens passes one hitch route off and is caught a little inside but reads Scheelhaase and recovers to make a leaping PBU on a five-yard hitch. Demens! (+2, cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-21, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O29 1 10 Pistol FB 3-wide 4-3 Light Run Triple option keeper Banks 4
Somewhat bizarre as it looks like the pitch is again wide open but Scheelhaase decides to keep it and follow the dive play he just decided against instead of toss it. Patterson(+1) actually gets into his blocker and shoves him back, then sets up so he can come off on either side. He does so as Scheelhaase passes, tackling after a few yards. Banks(-1), in for RVB, got crushed, though, and it's five yards. Still fortunate, IME, but can't tell for sure.
O33 2 6 I-form twins 4-3 Light Run Off tackle Mouton 4
Virtual replay of the off tackle play on the last drive. Fitzgerald(-1) proves he's not a DE, going down to single blocking. This time Mouton(+2) evades a free release from the TE and pounds the RB as he crease the LOS; no YAC(tackling +1).
O37 3 2 Shotgun trips 4-3 Light Pass 4 Corner Vinopal Inc
Incredibly depressing as RVB(+1) has beaten the RT to the outside and slid inside the RB, coming up on the rollout to force a throw… to a vastly wide open receiver on a corner route for another 25 yards… which is dropped. Salutations! Vinopal the nearest guy but none of these replays are providing actual information. (Cover -3, pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-21, 5 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O40 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Vinopal 16
Vinopal rolls down into the box on the snap. This is an inside zone; Patterson and RVB get doubled and don't go anywhere but don't penetrate. With nowhere to go on the inside LeShoure cuts it out, where there's a major gap because Gordon(-1) got way too far upfield. Demens has to scrape through a blocker to get outside but Vinopal is there as a free hitter... and whiffs(-2, tackling -2) entirely. Compounding matters is that he let LeShoure outside of him and did not funnel to help. He's into the secondary, where Rogers dives at his legs to tackle after 15.
M44 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Power dive Van Bergen 1
Michigan slants the line and sends Gordon from the edge, which gets RVB(+1) past a down block attempt and into the intended running lane, where he absorbs the pulling G. Gordon(+0.5) keeps under control and tackles on the slow cutback. (RPS +1)
M43 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 Scramble Ezeh? 8
Michigan sends Ezeh off the edge and slants the other way, which gets good pressure except for the fact that Roh and Ezeh split like the Red Sea and there's a huge lane for Scheelhaase to scramble into. I think this minus goes to Ezeh(-1) since he got way upfield; Roh was coming right up the middle and if he got out of a lane it wasn't by much. Downfield Mouton(-0.5) makes a dodgy tackle that gives more yards.
M35 3 1 Ace 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Ezeh 2
Kovacs comes down into the box and Gordon backs off to cover the slot. Patterson(+0.5 and Roh(+0.5) slant past OL and cut off any hope on the frontside. Ezeh(-0.5) is blitzing on the backside and can't quite get there to close off the cutback lane. He tackles but the RB's momentum takes him forward.
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 Batted Gordon Inc
MOTS, with one of the OLBs coming off the edge. This time it's Gordon(+1, pressure +1) coming around the outside to hit Scheelhaase's arm as the throws. The resulting duck hits the ground harmlessly.
M33 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 Fly Avery 33
Same blitz, but picked up better this time. No one bothers Scheelhaase (pressure -1) and he launches a deep fly route to a well-covered receiver that juuuuust evades the fingertips of Courtney Avery and is brought in for a touchdown. This is actually a +1, cover +1 that just got beat by a perfect throw.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-28, 1 min 2nd Q. Swanky kick return follows.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O35 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Cross Fitzgerald 6
Roh(+1) smokes the left tackle with a sweet move, heading inside and then spinning out to get quick pressure(+1) on Scheelhaase. He's forced to dump it to Fayson on a zero yard route; Fitzgerald(-1, tackling -1) comes up hard and misses a tackle, allowing Fayson to the outside for decent yardage.
O41 2 4 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Improve Mouton? 25
Roh(+0.5) does the exact inverse, this time threatening outside and spinning inside of the other tackle. He slips as he gets free but he does cause a scramble (pressure +1). Unfortunately there's a guy wide freaking open. Michigan moved to a three-deep late with Avery rolled up and the linebackers and Gordon underneath; at the end of the play Avery, Mouton, and Demens are all near a guy on a short out and no one is dealing with the slot guy's seam route. This is either on Vinopal or Mouton, the LB who was over the slot receiver and did not go vertical with him. Minus two for both? Sure. (Cover -3) I think Illinois was running four verts, BTW.
M34 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Scramble Roh? 8
A carbon copy of the scramble earlier on the drive where a gap opens up between Roh and Ezeh. This time Roh gets the minus; Ezeh was a lot less irresponsibly upfield and Roh seemed to be the one opening it up. (Pressure -1)
M26 2 2 Shotgun 4-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 Fly Rogers Inc
Rogers(+1, cover +1) in excellent position and the ball's overthrown anyway. Not +2 here because this was pretty obviously endzone or bust.
Drive Notes: FG(43), 31-31, EOH.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O43 1 10 Pistol FB ? Run Triple option dive Ezeh 3
Probably. We get to the play late. No idea what happens; Ezeh tackles after three so let's call it even.
O46 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Roh 1
Roh(+1) slants past the tackle and into the running lane. He gets pushed past the play and the RB can cut back but he must slow considerably, and then Roh gets an arm on him. Demens(+0.5) scrapes from the inside to get there at about the LOS and prevent the RB from falling forward.
O47 3 6 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 2 Improv Rogers 5
Starts out as a 3-4 then Michigan checks into the stack when Illinois audibles. Michigan rushes two(!), with Martin dropping off to act as a screen/QB spy. Coverage(+1) is good and then Scheelhaase's timer goes bing and he starts scrambling to the sideline. Martin runs at him. Gordon escorts the RB deep, leaving Scheelhaase an improv dumpoff for five yards. Rogers(+0.5) and Ezeh(+0.5) are there to tackle(+1) short of the sticks. RPS+1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 31-31, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M31 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass N/A Waggle out Van Bergen Inc
Cameraman fooled, and so is Michigan. RVB(-1) is tasked with edge contain and gets beaten outside. The coverage(-1) is not so good as Scheelhaase has a wide open guy for a first down with linebackers chasing way out of position, and at the very least he's a fast guy on the edge against Thomas Gordon he can pick up some yards. Instead he chucks a ball at the sideline, which goes out of bounds and would have been very tough for the receiver anyway.
M31 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run QB draw Martin 4
Martin back in, woo. He shoves his man back into the pulling guard(+1) and causes him to be very late. Van Bergen(-0.5) gets blocked well out of the play on his slant. Demens takes on a blocker, funneling it back, and Mouton(+0.5) can tackle relatively clean since Martin delayed the guard. Martin also comes from behind to make sure.
M27 2 6 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 Scramble Van Bergen 5
Van Bergen(+2) swims through an Illinois OG like he is not there, but Roh(-1) got blasted inside and opened up another scrambling lane for Scheelhaase. It looks like he's going to get the first down easily when Avery(!!!, +1, tackling +1) sets up in just the right spot and '>'>takes out Scheelhaase's legs as he tries to cut outside.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(39), 31-31, 10 min 3rd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M42 1 10 Shotgun H-back twins Base 4-4 Run Zone read keeper Demens 1
Black(-1) crashes in on something or another as the pulling FB bypasses him—this is a called keeper, not a read. He's gone. Demens(+2) starts scraping outside, taking on the FB block low and coming through it without damage. Gordon(+0.5) has set up outside so there's nowhere to go; Demens tackles(+1) in space.
M41 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 Hitch Ezeh Inc
Four guys don't get there right away and Ezeh(-1) faked towards the LOS then dropped straight back, so he's about two yards from Mouton and this hitch is wide open. Receiver juggles and drops the ball; Avery(-0.5) was also late-ish and though he's there to tackle he doesn't jar the ball free, it just comes out by itself. (Cover -1)
M41 3 9 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Improv Van Bergen Inc
RVB(+1) beats the tackle clean ot the inside and forces Scheelhaase to scramble (pressure +1). There's a ton of guys in the area; Ezeh does some chasing and Scheelhaase launches an ill-advised pass off his back foot; Mouton(+1, cover +1) is there to knock it away. Actually not the world's worst decision in the situation. INT here is almost as good as punt.
Drive Notes: Punt, 38-31, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O22 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Triple option dive Banks 3
Patterson takes a momentary double and does okay; Demens(+0.5) pops up and takes the peeling C at the LOS and there's no hole for the dive. Banks(+0.5) reads the cutback and comes off the now wrong-side block to tackle.
O25 2 7 Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Counter Banks 20
Kovacs rolls up late to make this an eight man front and blitzes; TE kicks him out. Fitz(-1.5) gets crushed by the tackle. Banks(-1.5) gets crushed out of the hole by the guard, and Mouton(-1.5) attacks the wrong shoulder of the first guy through, so LeShoure is through a massive hole without being touched. Vinopal and Avery manage to prevent a TD.
O45 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Power dive Mouton 4
Virtual replay of the last play without the counter step from the RB. Fitz(-1) kicked out wide, Mouton(-1) sits and eats a block two yards downfield. Patterson(+0.5) did a little better this time and the pulling G bumps his linemate, allowing Demens(+0.5) to run in to the hole and plug him at the LOS. Wad of bodies moves forward because Mouton got blowed up so good.
O49 2 6 Pistol 3-wide 4-4 Light Run Triple option pitch Kovacs -8
Kovacs(+1, RPS +2) again blitzes off the edge, but there's no TE this time to stop him and he smashes Scheelhaase almost before the dive fake. Scheelhaase still tries to pitch and chucks it over the RB's head. Mouton(-2) had again sucked in on the dive fake, leaving the pitch wide freaking open, but gets bailed out.
O41 3 14 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Post Fitzgerald 21
Three man rush on third and fourteen and a wide open guy in the middle of the field because Fitzgerald(-2, cover -2) did not get enough depth on his drop and opened up a post. Van Bergen(+0.5) was getting there to tackle Scheelhaase just as he released; time but not a ton of time. One more moment.
M38 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Read option keeper Vinopal 3
Scheelhaase pulls as it looks like T. Gordon(-1) gets too aggressive, but Vinopal(+2) comes up, avoids a block, and makes an excellent open field tackle(+1) to hold it down.
M35 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide Nickel 4-3 Run QB draw Martin 8
This is so bizarre that I think it must be a stunt or something but Martin(-1) kind of sets up instead of attacking and then gets blown out of the hole. With Black slanting hard this seems like Martin's supposed to pull around him. Instead he just gets crushed. Mouton(-1) doesn't read the guard right over him pulling and sits in an area with no holes and a backside pursuit guy. Demens(-1) is outside and it seems like that's his assignment but then he engages a guy and goes further outside when it's clear where the ball is going. Van Bergen and Black reach out arms, slowing Scheelhaase, and Kovacs cleans up from behind.
M27 1 10 Shotgun 2-back twins 4-3 Light Pass 5 Wheel of doom T. Gordon? 27
New formation for Illinois and Michigan is confused before the snap. Also after. Illinois runs a weak stretch fake and rolls out; both outside receivers run posts that drag Avery and Vinopal with them, and LeShoure runs wheel route with nothing but grass around him. Who's responsibility is this? I'm not sure anyone's except GERG. T. Gordon does not know to carry the running back vertical. If he does the other running back will be vastly open in the flat because Demens is bugging out for the deep middle. Avery's going with the post, as is Vinopal, and Rogers is covering no one on the far side of the field. So... who and what can Michigan do to make no obvious touchdowns on this play? Don't know. T. Gordon -2, Cover -3, RPS -3.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 38-31, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M28 1 10 Pistol FB 3-wide 4-3 Light Pass 4 Triple option pitch Gordon 11
Scheelhaase pulls and now has Demens and Roh chasing at him from the inside, so he pitches. Cam Gordon's(-2) on the edge against a WR, gets too close to the LOS, gets blocked, gets held a little, and gives up the corner.
M17 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Off tackle Mouton -2
Michigan slanting their DL, including Ezeh, and this is still not a super idea since it just gives Illinois a hole and Mouton has to deal with a free releasing tackle. Kovacs(+0.5) comes up to the outside well, forcing a cutback the RB apparently did not expect. Mouton(+3) gives the TE an ole job and fills in the hole, tackling for no gain. (RPS -1)
M18 2 11 Shotgun 4-wide Base 3-4 Run Zone read keeper Kovacs 17 (Pen -10)
Michigan gets lucky here, picking up a holding call on what looks like the Illinois LT just tossing Ezeh to the ground like a rag doll. I guess he grabbed him outside the shoulder pads but I've seen a thousand worse things let go every week. Zone read from Scheelhaase and he makes a questionable decision to pull with Demens scraping over. He has to cut inside, where Mouton(+0.5) is scraping to the play, and then he has to cut all the way to the backside, which is possible because Roh(-1) got way upfield and Kovacs(-2) started running to the frontside of the play instead of attacking the cutback lane. Vinopal has to scrape past the umpire and can only make a diving tackle at the sticks. The bad hold call brings it back.
M29 2 22 Shotgun 4-wide Base 3-4 Pass 3 Slot seam Mouton 23
Strange to have seven guys at nor near the LOS in this position. Slot guy runs right by Mouton(-2, cover -3), who stops his drop at ten yards for some reason, leaving an absolute cavern between the linebackers and the three-deep. Again, Michigan DL are getting to Scheelhaase--Roh this time--but because of crap like this it's always irrelevant.
M6 1 G Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Speed option Roh -1
Roh(+1) reads the play and hops out past the tackle before he can react. This forces a quick pitch. Gordon(+1) has to deal with the FB. He gets outside and strings it out perfectly; Rogers (+0.5) comes up to help tackle once the RB finally decides he has to go inside Gordon.
M7 2 G Pistol FB twins 4-4 Light Run Power dive Van Bergen 6
RVB(-2) gets doubled and crushed backwards as LBs ably fill the gaps on both sides of him. RVB can't anchor and ends up five yards downfield with his back to the football; LeShoure just has to run up those OLs' backs to get to the one.
M1 3 G Goal line Goal line Run Iso 1
LeShoure manages to burrow in, but it's not easy.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 38-45, 11 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O11 1 10 I-Form 4-3 Light Run Off tackle Black 7
Black(-0.5) gets a little push but not much and gets sealed inside by a single guy; TE gets a free release on Demens and seals him. FB kicks out Gordon; Vinopal(-0.5, tackling -1) fills after about three but has to hang on for dear life, giving up a chunk afterwards.
O18 2 3 I-form twins 4-4 Light Run Off tackle Van Bergen 2
Van Bergen(+2) crushes the C into the backfield, picking off a pulling guard and forcing LeShoure to dance outside the mess. This gives Martin(+1) time to flow down the line after beating his guy and tackle at the LOS. Could have been a no gainer or loss but for Banks(-1) getting blown off the ball.
O20 3 1 I-form big Base 3-4 Run Power off tackle Martin 1
Both safeties move down into the box and Avery sets up deep. Fitz(+0.5) blitzes off the edge and gets into the pulling G in a good spot, occupying both him and the FB and giving no creases for the RB. Martin(+1) flows into the gap behind him, beating an OL, and it's the two LBs versus the backside G and LeShoure. They've got him short until a second effort just gets him over the line. I'm fine with this, really.
O21 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Run Zone read keeper Fitzgerald? 12
Not sure if this is on RVB or Fitz, but no one goes with the QB and this is easy. (RPS -2)
O33 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Run QB power dive Fitzgerald 6
Martin absorbs two and does okay. Demens reads it and moves up to hit the pulling G at the LOS. Fitzgerald(-1) started running outside, read the play late, and is easily popped out of the hole by the RB, giving the QB an avenue for a nice gain.
O39 2 4 I-form 4-4 light Run Off tackle Roh -1
Vinopal rolled up too so this is nine in the box. Michigan stunts. RVB(+1) slants past the playside G, cutting off the intended hole and forcing a cutback. Roh(+2) splits two OL not expecting him on his stunt and comes through to TFL by himself. RPS+1.
O38 3 5 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Quick out Kovacs 4
Quick out thrown a yard short of the sticks and since it's not precise Kovacs(+0.5) can escort a leaping WR out of bounds short of the first.
Drive Notes: Punt, 38-45, 6 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O18 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Improv Demens Inc
Demens(+0.5, cover +1) drops into the hitch that is Scheelhaase's first read, and then Martin comes around to get pressure on a stunt. No rush lanes this time and Scheelhaase has to roll outside, where everyone is still covered(+1, with Vinopal(+1) tipping a dangerous pass away.
O18 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Mouton 9
Michigan seems to expect pass here, which is frustrating since given the down and distance and time Illinois almost has to run lest they give M another possession on an incomplete pass. Line slants down but there's no one filling the cutback lane after Roh gets past the tackle. This is either on Roh for slanting down the line too hard or Mouton for sitting back and eating a block--one or the other has to stay outside. Ezeh sits outside to dissuade the keeper then crashes down after the handoff, but he's too far away to help with Mouton getting blocked to the outside; Demens was dropping into a short zone to take away a slant, allowing Gordon to blitz from the frontside. Roh -1, Mouton -1, but I lean towards Mouton being the responsible party here for the usual reason: if you're a linebacker getting blocked flat-footed four yards downfield you're doomed.
O27 3 1 Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Vinopal 0
Vinopal rolls up late for another guy in the box. RVB(+1) gets under his blocker and into the intended running lane; Mouton(+0.5) fills a frontside gap hard, leaving Vinopal(+1, tackling +1) a free hitter in a constricted area. He brings enough wood to stand LeShoure up and the cavalry arrives.
Drive Notes: Punt, 45-45, 1 min 4th Q. Illinois' final drive of regulation is not charted because it's an extreme outlier. On to OT.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 I-form 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 4 PA Scramble 6
PA is covered all over (cover +2) but Scheelhaase has epic time (pressure -3) and a rushing lane he takes for six.
M19 2 4 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Run Zone read keeper Roh 15
Another instance where the DE shuffles down the line and no scrape from the LB. Mouton is blocked, Roh out of the play, and a big gainer happens. RPS –1.
M4 1 G Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run QB draw Mouton 2
Mouton(+1) recognizes the pull this time and slams into the guard at the LOS. He takes a hit from a tailback too, and gives ground. Demens comes up slightly tardy; Scheelhaase has to burrow behind the double on Mouton, allowing Michigan players to converge.
M2 2 G Goal line Goal line Pass 4 Waggle cross Inc
Michigan bites, with Gordon(-0.5) getting out way late on the corner and Mouton(-0.5) losing the TE(cover -1); Scheelhaase tries the more covered TE and ends up throwing it well behind him.
M2 3 G Shotgun 3-wide Base 3-4 Run QB draw Mouton 1
Demens(-1) reads this too slowly and gets hit a yard downfield, so there's a gap. Mouton(+2) jukes the RT, sliding inside of him and tackling at the LOS. Scheelhaase dives to about the inch line.
M1 4 G Goal line Goal line Run Down G Mouton 1
They block down on RVB and shoot the FB right at Mouton, who can't make a great play this time. LeShoure finds the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 52-52, OT
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 2-back twins Base 4-4 Pass Wheel of doom ??? 25
Literally the exact same thing happens, though they're thrown at Mouton and Ezeh as the linebackers this time. RPS -4.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 52-59, OT2
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Pistol FB twins 4-3 Light Run Triple option pitch Avery 1
This is different than the other pitches since they run it away from the twins side of the field instead of to it. So. Fitzgerald comes down on the dive; a pull. Mouton(+0.5) gets outside his blocker and starts flowing; Kovacs(+0.5) comes up to take away the QB run. Avery(+1, tackling +1) was on the TE and got outside, shutting off the corner. He comes off to tackle, and Michigan finally stops an option pitch.
M24 2 9 Ace twins Base 3-4 Pass 4 PA TE throwback Fitzgerald 14
Really delayed this time as the TE gets caught up on Van Bergen before releasing. Kovacs has to go vertical with one tight end and Fitzgerald(-2, cover -2) starts running playside, getting way out of position and opening this up vastly. (RPS -2, because at least on this play I can tell who probably should have had the play.
M10 1 G Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Run Zone read keeper Roh 7
Same fricking thing, with Roh shuffling down the line and Mouton(-1) not getting in position to do anything on either the dive or the keeper; Scheelhaase pulls it and gets down to the three. RPS-2. They've had 100 plays to fix this.
M3 2 G Shotgun 4-wide Base 3-4 Run Zone read handoff Roh 3
Fitz blitzes off the edge for contain and M slants; Roh(-1) gets pushed too far down the line and opens up a cutback lane; Mouton was moving inside his blocker and cannot adjust once the bounce happens, though he tries.
M3 2pt 2pt Shotgun 2TE twins 4-3 light Pass 6 Sack Mouton -7
Same play as the previous one and Michigan is caught in man but Mouton(+2) leaps over a cut attempt from the LT and Roh(+1) stunts inside, coming free. Scheehaase has to try to get around Mouton but can't, getting ankle-tackled as he rolls out and going down to end the game. (Pressure +2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown(2PT failed), 67-65, EOG.

 So this sounds insane after a 67-65 game but that was… less depressing?

Yeah? Penn State had nine drives on which they tried to score. On those drives their average field position was their 32. They scored 4.6 points per drive. They were the worst offense in the Big Ten before the game. Illinois was not a good offense, but they had 19(!!!) drives with an average starting position of their own 48 and scored 3.4 points per drive. Michigan forced six punts and had two other three-and-outs that Illinois got field goal attempts on because they started around the Michigan 30. Two of Illinois's touchdown drives also started around the Michigan 30.

By the Mathlete's reckoning, an average offense would expect to score 40 points given the 16 drives with great field position Illinois had in regulation; Michigan gave up 45. That is almost not awful.

But still pretty depressing?

Also yeah. "Almost not awful" does not include the three consecutive TDs Illinois scored in overtime. Also, an average defense going up against an average offense would expect to put up 40. Illinois does not have an average offense. Even after Saturday they're 71st in total offense; before it they were 85th. Illinois put up 43 on Indiana and 44 on Purdue. Multiple breakdowns were plays Illinois ran over and over again (triple option, wheel of doom, a simple zone read keeper) on which there was no Michigan defender with even a plausible chance of defending. The sheer number of wide open guys on passes, option pitches, and zone read keepers caused me to burble in disgust as I saw carbon copies of previous errors made deep into the game.

In addition, a number of the stops were of the Illinois-stops-self variety. UI receivers dropped two third down conversions, one of them a very long gainer, and their fumble was just a guy dropping the ball. Michigan had some fortunate breaks go their way to get the not-awful-by-the numbers performance.

I think there's some hope from individual players, but when some of that hope comes from Craig Roh checking in with a positive number because he's at DE after he was moved to LB in the fall, did poorly, played DE against Iowa and MSU, did well, and then was put back at a linebacker against Penn State and Michigan puts Obi Ezeh and JB Fitzgerald at defensive end for big chunks of the game, your coaching sucks.

I keep talking like this? Inflecting my sentences to make them questions?

You do. I wasn't going to say anything but you brought it up.

Chart?

oic. Chart. Remember that these are going to be high amplitude because of the sheer number of plays and that you should turn the volume down by a third or so.

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Van Bergen 10.5 3.5 7 Developing into a fine player. Now consistently putting up points.
Martin 8 1 7 Was more back than it looked live, but still out a lot more than usual.
Banks 0.5 3.5 -3 Little PT with the move.
Sagesse - - - DNP?
Patterson 2 3 -1 The usual dropoff but held his ground a bit better.
Black 1.5 2 -0.5 Off day.
Roh 10.5 8 2.5 Eventful; some minuses may be someone else's fault.
TOTAL 33 21 12 Not great; no production from the backups and too much time for them.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Ezeh 3 4 -1 Didn't do anything outlandish, a lot of minuses not really his fault.
Mouton 15.5 16 -0.5 The most Mouton day ever.
C. Gordon 5 3.5 1.5 Far more clueful this week but also a lot more blitzy.
T. Gordon - 3 -3 Had the misfortune of being only plausible coverage guy on Wheel of Doom 1.
Leach - - - Did get in at least one play.
Moundros - - - DNP
Demens 10.5 2.5 8 Can play, yo.
Herron - - - DNP
Fitzgerald 0.5 11 -10.5 Um… not so good.
TOTAL 34.5 40 -5.5 Let's have linebackers play DE.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Floyd - - - DNP
Rogers 2.5 2.5 0 I'll take it!
Kovacs 4.5 11 -6.5 Very bad day early.
Johnson - - - DNP.
Talbott - - - DNP.
Christian - - - DNP.
Avery 3.5 0.5 3 Two key tackles.
Ray Vinopal 4 4.5 -0.5 Some great tackles, a couple ugly whiffs.
TOTAL 15.5 18.5 -3 I'll take this, too.
Metrics
Pressure 12 8 4 If only they covered anyone…
Coverage 13 24 -11 But they don't.
Tackling 9 7 2 Meh.
RPS 7 21 -14 Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[RPS is "rock, paper, scissors." Michigan gets a + when they call a play that makes it very easy for them to defend the opponent, like getting a free blitzer. They get a – when they call a play that makes it very difficult for them to defend the opponent, like showing a seven-man blitz and having Penn State get easy touchdowns twice.]

Shave about a third off all of those and you get approximately a normal game. The defensive line did decently. The linebackers were slightly below par, the secondary was all right individually but as a whole there were vast openings in the zone that probably fall more on the LB's heads than anything else, and everything that's ever happened good or bad is because of Jonas Mouton.

Isn't Mouton supposed to be one of our better players?

Yes, I guess. I have been complaining about him all year, so not to sound like a broken record but man, whenever something awful happened to Michigan it seemed like the linebacker running his ass off in a vain attempt to get back in position was Mouton. Sometimes it's tough to tell exactly who has what assignment when Michigan is defending the option but 1) almost all of Illinois's successful option pitches came to Mouton's side of the field*, 2) on most of them they were playing three deep and blitzing a rolled up safety into the QB, and 3) Mouton was hanging out on the inside when a DE was crashing the dive.

This was the most blatant example—watch Mouton as Kovacs screams in on Scheelhaase:

There is absolutely no reason for Mouton to be anywhere near the interior of the play. Kovacs has the QB. The line/DE/Demens has the dive. The secondary is in a three deep. He should be the force defender and is so far out of position that if Scheelhaase manages to make an accurate pitch this is at least ten yards and possibly another touchdown. Either this is his responsibility or GERG's scheme to defend the option literally cannot work. I'm honestly not sure which it is.

On the 64-yard TD Mouton probably was supposed to be inside and Kovacs got blocked out of his blitz but man this is ugly when he tries to tackle:

 

Vinopal comes up and lets the play outside of him but either way Michigan's giving up lots of yards here since Kovacs blitzed inside the tackle and Mouton never scraped.

But wait! There's more! I'm not exactly sure who this was on, but Roh kept shuffling down on Illinois's inside zone keepers and Scheelhaase pulled, finding tons of open space because Mouton was sitting on the interior again. Since Roh is younger and just moved back to DE I thought it was on him, but I'm not sure if Mouton should get the benefit of the doubt. He gives up contain a lot. Roh shuffled on the third drive of the game and led to a keeper that Kovacs had to deal with, and kept shuffling, and Mouton never, ever scraped. One of these two people must be told to do something differently.

The most frustrating part of all of this is that these things kept happening. Michigan did not change their scheme at all and the option pitch was still open and Scheelhaase could pull in overtime just like he did before. No Michigan player altered their play, which makes it difficult for me to tell who was at fault because no one changed their behavior.

In Mouton's defense, he also made his usual array of flat-out great plays. The most obvious was the final one where he leapt an offensive lineman and shot in on Scheelhaase before he could force a fourth overtime, but scattered in between all that contain business was a guy who took on a lot of blocks, made a lot of tackles, and displayed the athleticism that made him a hot recruit and will probably get some NFL team to take a flier on him. So he's not all bad.

*(The one that worked and didn't featured Cam Gordon failing to maintain leverage on the RB as he was getting blocked by a slot, but at least in that instance there was a player in the vicinity who just made a mistake; there was not an obviously blown assignment.)

This will be a good segue: how intense does your GERG hatred run this week?

I'm keeping steady at a thousand suns. The inability to adjust to the option—the one time Michigan stopped it late they ran away from the twins side into Kovacs and Avery, who was in overhang mode and could get outside the TE easily to contain—or the wheel of death or a simple zone read keeper led to another monster negative RPS day. Whenever I'm not sure which Michigan player is making errors on a dozen different massive gains the defensive coordinator is going to get a huge negative RPS.

Meanwhile, Michigan finally put Roh where he should be but we're addicted to playing guys out of position so for long stretches of the game we had the privilege of watching two linebackers try to play defensive end, which they did not. They got no pressure and were blown up in the run game. They were better as 3-4 OLBs but Michigan had a gameplan and stuck with it, putting four men on the line in power situations much of the day and paying for it. I know Greg Banks isn't spectacular but he does make the occasional good play, unlike Fitz and Ezeh when they're shoehorned into playing defensive end. Fitz was particularly woeful. I'm not sure how he even got that massive minus but there it is. He only had one tackle, so there's some circumstantial backup.

This game provides no evidence Greg Robinson should be kept. Not that I have to tell you that.

Heroes?

Demens was again consistent on anything that got pushed to him, making a couple impressive tackles in space and making a breakup on a short third down attempt. Avery didn't seem victimized on anything and made a couple big tackles

Goats?

Greg Robinson, for putting Ezeh and Fitzgerald in a position they'd never played before, and for moving Roh to linebacker in the spring, and for moving Cam Gordon to safety, and for never ever adjusting to 1) simple zone read keepers, 2) the basic triple option play that is Illinois's offensive staple, and 3) the wheel of death. I'm not even sure he knew what was going wrong. On film it's instantly obvious that either the DE or LB is not containing and something must be changed, but in the third overtime Roh was still shuffling and Mouton not scraping as Scheelhaase ran down to the three.

The alpha and omega, beginning and end of all things, the snake that eats its own tail, the world tree, the ever-expanding universe itself, the very Big Bang that brought matter into existence?

Jonas Mouton.

What does it mean for Purdue and beyond?

Michigan should either scrap the four man line or play an actual lineman on it. The 3-4 seemed to work much better, but what I really want to see is a personnel package that is simple and makes sense instead of Michigan trying to shoehorn every front they can think of into the same personnel. Be one thing and be good at it. I was so wrong about this in the preseason.

Long term, Demens now has three games to his name and is on the verge of establishing himself a guy Michigan can expect somewhat big things out of next year. Van Bergen is becoming a guy with some impact, Roh (surprise!) can rush the passer and is a much more effective DE than LB, and the guys moving around in the secondary seem less bewildered; Cam Gordon brings some pop and potential to spur if he can just get settled.

I'm not sure what to expect against Purdue. Maybe they'll play Denard at nose tackle. More likely they'll stick with the 3-4 that was the default against spread sets against IU and try to corral the Purdue running game. I hope to see a coherent defense next week, but don't expect one.

Unverified Voracity Fills The Flag

Unverified Voracity Fills The Flag

Submitted by Brian on November 5th, 2010 at 12:12 PM

Newsbits of importance from Tom. Dark I'm-not-saying-I'm-just-saying rumors about Craig Roh and Demetrius Hart have been flying around the internets this week. Tom clarifies. On Craig Roh:

My source told me that Craig has been concerned with his position switch to linebacker, and believes he is much more effective as a defensive end.

Craig actually vocalized his concern about his position to the coaches after the Penn State game, and my source says that he has been playing much more on the defensive line during practice this week.

Roh's apparently been handed to Bruce Tall and will no longer be mostly a linebacker. This is both good and another instance of players coaching themselves. Meanwhile, Demetrius Hart decommit rumors are false:

There was a slight mix up with Demetrius' enrollment with Michigan, but it has been cleared up. That was the issue, it wasn't that anyone was recruiting him harder, or anything along those lines. Everything has been straightened out, and his mom says Demetrius will be at Michigan in January.

Insert the usual CYA boilerplate about how anything can happen, but you can focus your panic elsewhere.

Crowded. JT Floyd is officially out for the year with "freak" ligament damage in his ankle. Hooray.

The Never Forget banner guy has updated it, and if any further members of the secondary wish to make themselves unavailable they'd advised to do it quickly because we're running out of room:

never-forget-updated

New additions are Michael Williams (concussions), JT Floyd (ligament damage), Jared Van Slyke (leg injury), and Vlad Emilien (transfer). Available locations are limited to that patch of maize underneath the crying wolverine. Given the state of the secondary this is getting considerably more RR-fault-ridden as the year goes along. Justin Turner and Vlad Emilien's transfers are big deals with the free safety depth chart reading "Ray Vinopal" and the corner depth chart reading "Random Three Star Freshman Projects and James Rogers."

At least the Floyd injury has been a productive one for the legions of Michigan photoshoppers:

jt-floyd-raiders

So we've got that going for us. Courtney Avery will draw into the lineup for Floyd.

Okay, a final final final word or two. It's unfortunate that Anchorman references are vastly overused because sometimes there's nothing you can say except

freep-amended-charge

…I'm not even mad, I'm impressed. That is amazing. I'm sitting on this pile of ninja corpses, covered in blood. As the sun rises over a scene of indescribable gore I laugh, because what else is there to do?

Probably not in the special section about how naughty Michigan's been:

the committee wrote that "though serious," the overage was "far less extensive than originally reported and that no student-athletes were substantially harmed."

Though this was obvious as soon as the smoke cleared last August because the piece was so shoddily written, it is now official. Hurrah for pyrrhic victories.

Watch this. The House Rock Built's "Stuffing The Passer" series is the best thing going in the CFB blogosphere right now:

If "Shit My Dad Says" is being made into a sitcom, Stuffing The Passer can't be far behind.

Elsewhere in coach grumbling. You've probably seen this but Brandon Graham has some depressing quotes that point towards the Those Meddling Kids theory:

I’m surprised they didn’t stick with what Coach Robinson was running,” Graham said of the 3-4 the team deployed in 2009, its first year under Robinson. … “Let Coach Robinson play his defense,” Graham said. “Let him do what he knows. He was thrown off, I would say. I know the 3-3-5 is what he (Rodriguez) has been doing for so long. He’s just got to adjust to the Big Ten.”

Michigan ran a 4-3 under last year but that's beside the point. Those quotes from a guy who was in the program last year indicate that no one who doesn't know a 3-3-5 like the back of his hand is ever going to be comfortable as a defensive coordinator at Michigan as long as the WVU guys are around saying things like "hey it's a bye week, I've got this great idea."

While everyone says "scheme is overrated," Michigan's offense puts the lie to that. It's not necessarily the 3-3-5 itself—this is not a BLANK can't work in the Big Ten argument—but attempting to run an exotic niche defense with a guy who doesn't know it (and evidence suggests is a terrible coach anyway).

I'm pretty sure this is as close as we'll get to an opinion from Angelique Chengelis, if that's actually what it is:

Hope for next year?

Much has been made about Michigan's defense, which is near the bottom of several national categories, including total defense. Illinois was in a similar spot last year, but has made strides under new defensive coordinator Vic Koenning:

Scoring defense: 30.2 (96th) in 2009, 16.8 (12th) in 2010

Total defense: 403.3 (91st) in 2009, 301.4 (15th) in 2010

Pass defense: 248.8 (100th) in 2009, 183.9 (19th) in 2010

Rush defense: 154.4 (76th) in 2009, 117.5 (26th) in 2010

That certainly reads like a "hint, hint."

Defensive antidote. Via Wolverine Historian:

Penn State jerkos. As an internet fanbase, Penn State has a remarkable knack for accusing others of pathologies they're displaying literally within the accusation itself. The latest example is a piece at Black Shoe Diaries the author probably thinks is Swiftian satire that takes a sentence from the game recap, some random comment I don't recognize and didn't make about the Terrence Talbott whiffed PBU that turned into 40 yards, a somewhat maudlin paragraph from Maize and Brew supporting Rodriguez, and a random quote from pissed off David Molk. It combines these to show how self-centered Michigan fans are… in a post whining that Michigan fans didn't give Penn State its proper respect.

BSD can talk about self-centered behavior when they do this:

Indiana has a legitimately very good pass offense. They had 41 opportunities to make catches and made 40. Chappell almost never went to the wrong guy and missed on maybe five of his 65 attempts. Their receivers are tall and fast and shifty. One dollar they're the most productive pass offense in the conference at the end of the year.

And this:

Michigan State has somehow acquired the without-question best stable of tailbacks in the league; Iowa's Adam Robinson isn't bad but he's not the equivalent of Baker/Bell/Caper, and there's only one of him.

Indiana imploded and Michigan State's run game is pretty mediocre. We tried the credit-the-opponent bit and then all of the opponents turned out to be much worse on offense than Michigan made them look. Doing it now against your gritty moxie ginger neckbeard quarterback would be delusional. Penn State sucks and Michigan is worse. But I said Ogbu is a beast, so your pathetic insecurities can be a tiny bit less pathetic. Let's hold hands.

Now go talk about how arrogant we are as you caress each other's soft places while whispering "what if Michigan never comes back" and we discuss whether we should keep Rich Rodriguez and worry about falling into a Notre Dame-like fallow period. Tim was right to describe BSD as a place utterly incapable of recognizing irony.

Etc.: Craig Roh's eyebrows, and the rest of Craig Roh, are attractive to some guy who ranks him the #13 "hottie" of the year in CFB. Yost Built has ten things to know about Alaska. Amani Toomer is running marathons now.

Upon Further Review 2010: Defense vs Penn State

Upon Further Review 2010: Defense vs Penn State

Submitted by Brian on November 4th, 2010 at 1:11 PM

Formation notes: After two games in which Michigan deployed a lot of 4 man fronts and mixed in some 3-4 and 3-3-5 looks Michigan was almost exclusively stack against Penn State. They did move Demens (and Roh/Fitzgerald) back at halftime. First half:

kovacs-1

Second half:

3-3-5-second-half

Substitution notes: Martin played maybe the first two series before coming out, and didn't do anything in that time. He was replaced by a combination of Sagesse and Patterson. Black and Banks are now platooning regularly, with Banks still getting most of the snaps. RVB is the line's ironman. He never comes out.

At linebacker it was Demens and Mouton the whole way with Fitzerald getting a drive or three when Michigan thought Roh wasn't playing well. Cam Gordon and Thomas Gordon split time at spur. Rogers was replaced by Talbott for much of the game. Vinopal went the distance at FS.

On with it:

Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O29 1 10 Ace trips 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 PA Fly Floyd Inc
Play action bomb against three deep; McGloin sets up and throws deep to his tiny guy Smith. Ball is underthrown and Floyd is in decent position, though a long enough throw beats him. Floyd has a chance to intercept but doesn't look for the ball quickly enough and a throw that looks like it was to him hits the turf. Um. I have to: Floyd +1, cover +1, pressure -1.
O29 2 10 I-form twins Base 4-3 Run   Off tackle Banks 0
Banks(+2) gets immediately playside of the PSU RT and drives him into the backfield. Michigan's running some sort of stunt on the backside that looks pretty unsound and as a result Demens was swallowed by two OL; Mouton is walled off by another—none of this matters because Banks has driven into the path of the RB and tackled him at the LOS by himself. Bad omen for the future.
O29 3 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass 3 Scramble Demens 11
One DT drops off to chuck the RB, looking for a screen. Martin(-1) comes through to flush McGloin, but with only three guys rushing there's a gap to the other side of him and McGloin steps up, sees no one, and runs. Demens(-1) is the guy nearest to him and gave up the corner because he drifted too far inside on a TE crossing route. This is definitely his fault: C. Gordon is going with his guy all the way downfield. Martin gets the -1 for coming up the wrong side and giving up the lane.
O40 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass N/A PA Throwaway Van Bergen Inc
RVB(+1, pressure +1) gets upfield of his blocker and immediately releases into McGloin, forcing him to toss it away.
O40 2 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 5 Slant Floyd 16
Michigan shifts late to man coverage and Floyd(-2, cover -2) isn't even in the same zip code as Smith on a simple slant. He can't even make a tackle, giving up another eight yards after the catch.
M44 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Kovacs 4
Michigan moves late to a one-high by, sending Kovacs into the box, and the shift gets PSU in a bad playcall. Seems like a designed cutback and a really bizarre scheme: Demens is like a yard from Martin and gets hit by a tackle; Mouton is way back and is scraping to the nominal frontside of the play only to get blown up by the FB as he drags himself out of position. Kovacs(+0.5) is there in the hole as a result of the late move to tackle near the LOS but he grabs ankles and allows Royster to spin forward for a decent gain. I'm guessing I'm going to neg a lot of guys because of this weird setup but not yet. This was the "This Is Not A Stack" play.
M40 2 6 Shotgun 2-back TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Pin and pull zone C. Gordon 3
Completely bizarre play from C. Gordon(-0.5) here, who is the contain guy to this side. Instead of flowing down the line and keeping outside leverage somewhere near the LOS he takes a weird looping downfield angle that sees him five yards downfield by the time the RB gets outside; he also impeded Roh with his weird delayed move outside. RVB(+1) had driven his guy well upfield and forced an outside angle by the RB, which allowed Gordon time to recover and hold the gain down.
M37 3 3 I-form Stack two deep Pass 3 FB screen Mouton 8
Three guys and still no one to sniff out the screen. Mouton(-1, cover -1) failed to read it and dropped very deep when he should have been staring right at it. Demens had a guy coming across his zone to drop into and then flows to tackle—without that this will go for a lot more. (RPS -1)
M29 1 10 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Run   Power off tackle Banks 5
Banks(-1) crushed two yards downfield by a double. Mouton comes up to hit a pulling guard and restricts the hole but there's nothing anyone can do to prevent Royster from burrowing behind his linemen for a decent gain.
M24 2 5 Ace trips 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Quick out Banks Inc
Banks(+1, pressure +1) knocks down the quick out at the LOS. Probably open for the first if not batted.
M24 3 5 Ace trips Stack two deep Pass 5 Flare Roh? 7
Michigan sends five and RVB(+0.5) swims through an OG to get to McGloin, forcing a dumpoff that is so open I have no idea who I should even blame. Roh(-1) is the most likely suspect (cover -2, RPS -1)
M17 1 10 Ace 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Throwaway Black Inc
Michigan covers(+1) McGloin's first read and then Black(+1) is one-on-one with the RB as PSU slides their protection. He gets cut but manages to stay up and threatening, forcing a rollout and a throwaway (pressure +1)
M17 2 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Counter Mouton 14
Double shoves Martin out of the hole; he shoots up under it but to no avail. Demens takes a step to the playside and is then engulfed by two OL because he's too damn close to the LOS to do anything about it. There's a hole and one blocker for Mouton to deal with; he shoots past the guy and is on the verge of a +3 for a monster play when he lets Royster through his tackle(-1 Mouton, -1) and pick up a huge gain thanks to a missed tackle(-1) from Vinopal(-2). RPS -1.
M3 1 G I-form big 3-3-5 stack Run   Power off tackle Banks 3
Banks(-1) destroyed by a single block and pancaked, giving the edge. Kovacs(-1) blocked and does not keep contain, giving up the edge for Royster as well.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 0-7, 7 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O44 1 10 Ace 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone C. Gordon 20
Another huge cutback lane. I'm not entirely sure who this is on because depending on assignment it could be any of Roh, Cam Gordon, and Van Bergen. Van Bergen is upfield as the unblocked backside guy and is cut by a TE pulling to the backside. Roh is flowing to the frontside and seems too close to Demens for that to be a good idea; Cam Gordon is either way too far outside or properly setting up to catch any bounces outside. -2 Roh for filling the same hole as Demens and -1 Gordon for being the guy shot past. Mouton actually made a nice read and flowed from the frontside of the play but for naught; Vinopal comes up and forces Royster to cut outside, where Rogers tackles. (RPS –1)
M36 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   Sack Mouton -11
An end around pass ends badly as Michigan covers(+2) both available receivers well and Mouton(+2) reads the end-around, gets out on the edge, and attacks. He'd sack but the guy's falling to the ground as he gets there anyway. Pressure +1.
M47 2 21 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   Corner Floyd 27
The underneath coverage on this is indeed a debacle but the super debacle is JT Floyd(-4, cover -4) getting so completely lost in three deep coverage on a guy in his zone that he's not even the tackler on an underthrown, softly-tossed lob thirty yards downfield. What the hell is Floyd doing on a hashmark, facing inside, in a three deep, on second and twenty one? YOU HAVE HELP INSIDE. BWS picture-paged this if you hate yourself.
M20 1 10 Ace twin TE Stack two deep Run   Inside zone Demens 19
Michigan horrendously misaligned as Penn State motions a TE over to give them two to the short side of the field. Michigan hardly reacts at all. So there's five PSU blockers to the short side and three Michigan defenders. Compounding this, Michigan just screws up. Demens(-2) runs to the backside when he's got Vinopal walking down and Mouton filling a backside lane, leaving no one to fill the frontside gap that he should have; there's not even a counter here, he just runs to the wrong side of the line. Banks kicked out and Roh(-1) blown up by the inline TE, Roytser into the secondary like that. (RPS -1)
M1 1 G Goal line 3-3-5 stack Run   Dive ? 1
Whatever. This isn't even M's to-date successful goal line package. RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-14, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O20 1 10 Ace twin TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Counter T. Gordon 3
Cam pulled for Thomas as SURPRISE, moving a deep safety to linebacker makes him confused. M adjusts to the motion this time, and Penn State runs a counter at it expecting an overreaction. Demens, who's still a yard behind his NT, gets caught with a step and sealed as the NT is Patterson and he does the usual.. Michigan does have two guys in the hole versus one blocker thanks to good reads by the backside folk. Blocker runs by Gordon to get Roh(+0.5) so T. Gordon(+0.5) hits at the LOS; they fall forward because there's no help.
O23 2 7 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Pass   Out T. Gordon Inc
McGloin throws a decently open out well wide of his receiver. Third and short in all likelihood if accurate.
O23 3 7 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   Middle screen Demens 5
They throw another screen; this time Demens(+0.5) is tasked with the tailback. He doesn't tackle but he does get into the play enough to delay the guy as he has to cut back behind Demens and the guy blocking him. RVB(+0.5) takes this opportunity to peel back and make a diving tackle attempt that's spun through but does slow Redd; Mouton(+0.5) and Demens converge to tackle short of the sticks.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-14, 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O26 1 10 Ace 3-3-5 stack Pass   PA TE flat C. Gordon 20
Cam Gordon(-2, cover -2) sucks in way too far, not only giving up the pass on the corner but not being anywhere near enough to tackle after the catch. Why on earth did they pull Thomas off for this?
O46 1 10 Ace twins twin TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Power off tackle Kovacs 9
Michigan again hugely, vastly misaligned as PSU brings in their WR/TE guy to be a second TE to the short side of the field, where be Kovacs; said Kovacs(-1) is blasted five yards downfield and JT Floyd(-1), the overhang guy, is met and blocked seven yards downfield. When Royster has to bounce because Mouton and Demens have cut off the inside there's no one out there. Banks(-1) was also single blocked and couldn't even slow Royster as he broke outside. (RPS -1)
M45 2 1 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Banks 7
Another cutback opened up by Banks(-1) getting washed down the line. I think. We come to this play late and I'm not entirely sure what's going on.
M38 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   PA TE flat Mouton 10
Another play where I can't tell who's screwing up on a wide open pass in the flat. It's either Mouton or Kovacs. Minuses for both. Cover -2.
M28 1 10 I-form 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Van Bergen 3
Roh has been pulled for Fitzgerald. Woo 3-3-5. Here RVB(+0.5) beats a guy, forcing another cutback; Black(+0.5) has slanted under his guy to the point where it has to go behind him, giving Kovacs(+0.5) the ability to read the cutback and make a weak ankle tackle at the LOS that could be run through but for Sagesse(+0.5) fighting to the ball and finishing it.
M25 2 7 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   PA throwaway Kovacs Inc
No one open (cover +1) as I think they were looking to go to the FB on the throwback but Kovacs(+1) reads the play and sits back on it, causing McGloin to chuck it OOB. Decent but not immense time.
M25 3 7 Ace trips 3-3-5 stack Pass   Cross Demens 6
Completely mistimed blitz from Floyd(-1) on the overhang sees him both tip it and leave late, so it's easily picked up. No one anywhere near McGloin (pressure -2) and he has plenty of time to find a crossing route as it nears the sticks. Demens is in the area in pursuit and tackles short of the first down, but only a yard short.
M19 4 1 I-form big 3-3-5 stack Run   Power off tackle C. Gordon 2
Demens(+3) shoots the gap between the NT and DE at the snap, blasting into the guard pulling around to provide a lead block, shucking him, and meeting Royster a yard in the backfield. Monster play, and a dead drive if he can get some help. Marvin Robinson(-1) comes up and wraps up Royster's shoulders; Cam Gordon(-2) takes an angle upfield and comes too far inside, running himself out of the play when Royster spins free. This is an amazing play by Royster, but Michigan should never have let this happen.
M17 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Counter Sagesse 13
Sagesse(-2) crumbles to the ground against single blocking before the handoff. Doom. Demens is again too close to the LOS to have any hope of scraping past releasing OL (RPS -2) and Roh can take the outside shoulder of the leading guard all he wants but that doesn't mean there's anyone coming to help.
M4 1 G I-form big 3-3-5 stack Run   Power off tackle Banks 3
Banks(-1) easily sealed by a single block, which allows another OL to pop out on Mouton without delay; everyone plays this right but this is an I form big against something other than a goal line package from the 3 (RPS -1).
M1 2 G Goal line Goal line Run   QB sneak ? 1
They get it.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-21, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M37 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 PA FB screen Mouton 17
PSU just killing this coverage where Kovacs runs his ass off into a hole at the sideline 10-15 yards downfield. Michigan again rushes three and no one reads the screen, with Mouton(-1) the guy who's zone is closest; he compounds a deep drop by getting cut to the ground. Demens(-1) didn't read the direction of the releasing linemen and steps towards Royster, making certain he won't be able to track this down. Fitzgerald(-0.5, tackling -1) whiffs a tackle just past the sticks and gives up another six. (Cover -2, RPS -1)
M20 1 10 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Run   Power off tackle Banks 0
Banks(+1) takes on a double and holds at the LOS, eventually driving the OT over him back a bit and causing Royster to trip. Fitzgerald(+0.5) came down at a good angle to squeeze the hole tight. Royster seems to trip over legs that are there because Banks made a good play and Demens(+0.5) flows to the hole to finish the play at the LOS.
M20 2 10 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Pass 3 Post C. Gordon Inc
Talbott now in at field corner, PSU goes after him and it does seem like he's got position—Talbott's at least on his back unlike certain other corners. Cam Gordon(+1, cover +1) gets a good drop and tips the pass, causing an incompletion.
M20 3 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass 5 Corner Vinopal 20
Guh. Michigan blitzes and C. Gordon(+1) sets up a blocker on the edge to the inside, juking by him to get a free run at McGloin, who tosses up a punt off his back foot. This punt is a slightly underthrown corner route. Ray Vinopal(-2, cover -2) is too far away from the receiver to make the slightly underthrown bit matter and waves helplessly at the ball as the receiver brings it in; they fall into the endzone. While McGloin's basically been handed scads of yardage by Michigan, he deserves some props here: his ridiculous back foot just having fun Wrangler Favre throw that should be easily intercepted is a fairly well thrown touchdown. FML.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-28, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O24 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 PA Deep Hitch Van Bergen Inc
Roh blitzes into the interior and doesn't really get anywhere. Talbott(-2, cover -2) is beyond way off on this 15-yard deep hitch and this will be complete but RVB(+1, pressure +1) reads the play and closes in on McGloin, deflecting the ball and causing it to come up well short. Fortunate.
O24 2 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Patterson 1
Same play from PSU that was picture paged; here Michigan is again using Roh as an interior blitzer; his attack draws two blockers and allows Patterson(+0.5) the luxury of just one; he slants past that guy and forces a cutback from Royster. Mouton(+0.5) is now playing a regular linebacker thing, not whatever he was doing in the first half, and reads, meeting the FB at the LOS. He's cut to the ground but his body is in the right spot and Royster slows, at which point Kovacs(+0.5) grabs him and gang tackling happens.
O25 3 9 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass 4 Deep hitch Talbott 40
Michigan drops back into a zone coverage with C. Gordon escorting the slot guy deep. (I now agree with BWS totally: it was Demens responsible for the Iowa TD). Talbott's on Moye on the outside and is in great position to break up the pass or even intercept but he screws it all up, letting the ball through for the completion and missing a tackle, turning a three and out into many yards. Talbott -3, cover +1, pressure -2. Srs.
M35 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   Stop and go Floyd Inc
Roh out, Fitz in and they do the same thing again; this version of the 3-3-5 is mostly a 4-3 with one tiny DT. PSU runs a slant and go and Michigan is in three deep with Floyd(-3, cover +1) in what should be great position to make a play on the ball, but he again gets totally lost. He's running a yard away from the sideline, facing it, in a spot that no one would ever think useful. So instead of being in a spot to intercept on a bad decision he can only watch a receiver almost catch a poorly thrown ball he should be all over.
M35 2 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run   Power off tackle Patterson 5
Patterson(-1) is doubled and gives a lot of ground quickly, eventually getting pancaked five yards downfield. However, the playside is jammed up because RVB(+1) drove his guy back and fought inside, closing off the running lane and forcing a cutback. Mouton responds as quickly as possible but with Patterson getting hammered like he does all he can do is hold the gain down.
M30 3 5 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Pass 4 Rollout out C. Gordon 7
Vastly too easy as C. Gordon(-1) does not react to the out fast enough and this is an easy pitch and catch (cover -1)
M23 1 10 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Run   Down G Floyd 4
Headed outside with the playside TE blocking down and the two guys inside of him pulling around. There's a WR/TE to that side, too. Kovacs(+0.5) is momentarily doubled and gets shoved out of the play, but does at least close off an interior cutback. Mouton charges up and gets cut but creates a pile; Floyd(+0.5) comes up hard to make a tackle. Royster tries to leap through it but doesn't make it.
M19 2 6 Ace 4-wide Stack two deep Pass 5 Out Floyd 5
Floyd beaten on a quick out (cover -1) but is at least there to tackle.
M14 3 1 I-form big Base 4-4 Run   Power off tackle   0
Michigan slants the line right and sends two linebackers into the gap right, which is exactly where PSU is going with the ball. DL get crushed out of the hole but that's what you expect; Mouton(+1) roars up into the hole to take on the outside shoulder of the pulling guard, which funnels the tailback to Demens(+0.5). Demens engages to tackle but it's 50-50 whether it's a first down or not until RVB(+1) comes in. RVB was well to the backside, shoved his blocker back, and shot through the same hole the linebackers hit to help. Nice job. (RPS +1)
Drive Notes: FG(31), 10-31, 10 min 3rd Q. This drive is basically good play and one 40-yard mistake by a freshman. If this is what was going on consistently I could live with it.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O20 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Power off tackle Van Bergen 3
Trying to go outside it seems. Line blocks down on the two DL, leaving RVB(+1) alone. He reads the play and heads upfield at the back, absorbing the pulling G and lead FB, and forcing the RB inside. There the RB meets a heap of bodies; Demens(+0.5) was responsible for creating the lack of gaps in the line. The delay allows a bunch of players to tackle.
O23 2 7 I-form 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass N/A PA FB screen Demens 7
This again. Another very slow read by the LBs; this time Mouton is up to take a cut near the LOS and forces the ball inside but Demens(-1, cover -1) is nowhere to be found and there's a lane the FB hits for first down yardage.
O30 1 10 I-form twins Base 4-3 Run   Down G Black 12
It looks like M is trying a similar slant to the one that got them the third and one stop on the previous drive but then Demens runs right into the middle of the line and Black runs upfield so I guess it can't be. It's pretty weird, though. Black(-1) heads upfield and is not blocked but does not sit down in an effort to combat the run, he just runs upfield, takes a shove from some OL, and is gone. Big gap. Mouton(-1) needs to get outside the pulling tackle but does not. Kovacs does what he can to funnel it inside against a blocker, and then RVB(-1), who stunted and flowed down the line the whole way, overruns Royster and turns this from like six into 11.
O42 1 10 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Down G Floyd 6 (Pen +10)
So Floyd is rolled up to the LOS and Kovacs is overhang. Banks and Floyd to one side of the field? Let's run right at it. Floyd(-1) starts executing a pass drop before the handoff and gives up the corner on a play that otherwise could have been stopped near the LOS. Umpire calls Sagesse(-1) for grabbing the C and preventing him from getting out on a linebacker. Need to be more subtle about it, eh?
M48 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass N/A PA rollout wheel Christian? 34
PA gets McGloin a billion years as RVB(-2, pressure -3) sucks into the playfake and removes any and all pressure. McGloin has forever. PSU runs a post-wheel combo against Christian, Gordon, and Johnson, IE three freshman, two of whom are playing their positions for the first time ever. Gordon gets beat but I don't really blame him; Christian(-1, cover -3) was late getting over. (RPS -2)
M14 1 10 Ace twins twin TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Sagesse 4
RVB(+0.5) squeezes down on the pulling TE and there should not be much in the way of holes, but Sagesse(-0.5) gets booted out of the center, opening up a small crease that creates a decent positive gain.
M10 2 6 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run   Off tackle Roh 5
Roh(-2) gets hooked and gives up the corner easily. Michigan seems misaligned, too, as PSU OL have incredibly easy angles to block Michigan LBs. (RPS -1) Floyd comes off a guy to tackle at the sticks.
M5 3 1 I-form big 3-3-5 stack Run   FB dive Sagesse 5
Sagesee(-2) is crushed, erasing the MLB; Banks(-1) slants inside a TE but takes a way upfield angle and can't close down the resulting hole. Kovacs is pulled outside by a pitch fake and Mouton eats a free release from a tackle.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-38, 4 min 3rd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Run   Down G Roh 5
Black(+0.5) does get sealed off but gives no ground and absorbs two blockers, leaving two on the edge against just one PSU guy. Roh(-1) is the outside guy and goes a little too far upfield, then gets chopped to the ground by the pulling guard. Demens is flowing from the inside and can't quite run Redd down as he breaks outside. Redd runs OOB after about five.
O30 2 5 I-form 3-wide Stack two deep Run   Inside zone Black 1
Black(+2) comes underneath the RT and into the running lane. He forces the RB away from the gaping lane behind him caused by Patterson(-1) getting blown back three yards and forces Redd to leap into a cluster of bodies in an attempt to avoid Black's tackle. RVB(+0.5), who's shooting inside when unblocked now, helped knock him off balance.
O31 3 4 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Pass 3 Rollout out Talbott 5
Way too easy. No one within miles of McGloin (pressure -2) and the little out is open in front of Talbott(-1, cover -1)
O36 1 10 Ace twin TE Base 3-4 Pass   PA sack T. Gordon -10
Michigan PA blitzing all the way with Thomas Gordon(+2, RPS +2) sent off the corner on a McGloin search and destroy mission. He gets upfield too quickly for McGloin to adjust and tackles solidly for a huge sack. (Pressure +3)
O26 2 20 I-form twins Stack two deep Run   Down G Sagesse 6
Banks slants under his blocker and it takes a good adjustment from the pulling guard to wall him off. Sagesse(-1) is blown downfield immediately by the backside guard after getting scooped and the linebackers have to deal with a ton of blockers. Demens actually gets doubled, so he's doing well just to stand his ground. Fitzgerald(-0.5) overruns it, leaving Sagessse to come off his block seven yards downfield and tackle, which good for you but really the whole issue is that you're seven yards downfield.
O32 3 14 Ace 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass 5 Corner Floyd Inc
Michigan sends blitzers and then sends a delayed LB once it's clear the TE is staying in. No one gets there (pressure -2). McGloin can throw a corner route; this one is well covered by Floyd(+1, cover +1) and the resulting throw is well high. Floyd was grabbing, but these days PI isn't PI unless it's called, same for holding. Rubbin's racin'.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-38, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M49 1 10 I-form 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Zone stretch Van Bergen 2
They run at RVB for the first time in what seems like forever; he gets a push on the two OL over him(+0.5) that allows Fitzgerald(+0.5) to flow hard to the outside, absorbing the playside tackle and leading FB, and cutting off the outside. Cutback forced. This time Banks(+0.5) is flowing properly and is there to tackle with help from Mouton(+0.5)
M47 2 8 I-form 3-wide Stack two deep Run   Counter Fitzgerald 3
Michigan blitzing here; Fitz and C. Gordon come from the outside. RVB(+1) gets inside a tackle and takes out the pulling guard as this is supposed to go right up the middle of the field. Royster takes it a gap outside into the B where Fitzgerald(-1) is supposed to be; he runs too far upfield and gives up a gap between himself and the RVB mess. Demens(+1) was dropping into a zone to prevent any quick slants behind the blitz. When he reads run he comes up quickly and makes a solid tackle(+1) two yards downfield; Royster falls forward for two more. Plus for the Demens drop because I believe his pass pro responsibilities came first because of the Gordon blitz and he did react quickly enough to hold this down to 3.
M44 3 5 Ace 3-wide Stack two deep Pass 4 Rollout hitch Kovacs 14
Michigan finally covers the out but in doing so they open up the hitch inside of it. Kovacs(-1) is nowhere to be seen on a play with no deep routes and a rollout in a situation where a first down is a serious threat of game over (cover -2). I'm not sure if Demens is doing the right thing here since he seems to have the tailback and moves up towards the LOS. If he stayed back that's where he'd be. Also this could be Floyd or Mouton since they both end up covering the out. Any of these folks could be at fault. Just don't know. Do know that this is a pretty insane call for the situation. Let's have two deep safeties twenty yards downfield.
M30 1 10 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Down G Mouton 0
Mouton(+1) flows, hits the pulling G at the LOS, gets outside of him, and stands there, eventually drawing the affections of the FB. Floyd(+0.5) comes up to hit the FB, too, cutting off all holes; Demens(+0.5) has scraped from the inside and delivers the tackle, though there's a bunch of bodies and a lot of falling so it wasn't a difficult one.
M30 2 10 Shotgun trips TE Stack two deep Pass 4 Scramble Black 4
PSU slides its protection and lets Black(+0.5) in on a tailback; he gets cut but does convince McGloin to start scrambling around; no one open (cover +1), McGloin decides to take off. Four Wolverines converge after a few yards.
M26 3 6 Shotgun 3-wide Stack two deep Pass 3 Flare ? Inc
No one open (cover +1) and McGloin does something I don't think we've seen all day: checks down. Sad face. This is dead meat if caught and is poorly thrown anyway.
Drive Notes: FG(42), 31-41, 5 min 4th Q. PSU's last drive is academic and not charted.

Chart.

Chart.

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Van Bergen 10 3 7 The solitary player to have a good day.
Martin - 1 -1 I'm going to throw myself off a bridge.
Banks 5 6 -1 I'm picking it out right now.
Sagesse 0.5 6.5 -6 Not high enough.
Patterson 0.5 2 -1.5 Too high.
Black 6.5 1 5.5 Hey… wait, what? I guess so.
Washington - - - DNP
TOTAL 22.5 19.5 3 Lost out to a terrible OL.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Ezeh - - - DNP
Mouton 6 5 1 Very difficult day; made that one awful missed tackle on Royster.
Roh 0.5 7 -6.5 Is not a linebacker. Is not a linebacker. Is not a linebacker.
C. Gordon 2 6.5 -4.5 Doesn't know WTF he's doing. Clearly inferior to…
T. Gordon 2.5 - 2.5 …but Cam played more than a guy who'd established himself as decent.
Leach - - - DNP
Moundros - - - DNP
Demens 6.5 5 1.5 Still picking guard out from his teeth.
Herron - - - DNP
Fitzgerald 1 2 -1 More PT because Roh is not a linebacker.
TOTAL 18.5 25.5 -7 Position moves a disaster.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Floyd 3 12 -9 Awful, awful, awful.
Rogers - - - Did he play at all?
Kovacs 3 4 -1 At least he's around zero.
Johnson - - - Did play a little but did not make an impact.
Talbott - 6 -6 Played in place of Rogers.
Christian - 1 -1 One exploitable play.
Avery - - - DNP, I think.
Ray Vinopal - 4 -4 Obviously tiny.
TOTAL 6 27 -21 Worst ever.
Metrics
Pressure 7 11 -4 No pressure on PA.
Coverage 11 27 -16 An utter debacle.
Tackling 1 3 -2 This counts as good.
RPS 3 13 -10 Let's align our MLB two inches from the nose tackle.

[RPS is "rock, paper, scissors." Michigan gets a + when they call a play that makes it very easy for them to defend the opponent, like getting a free blitzer. They get a – when they call a play that makes it very difficult for them to defend the opponent, like showing a seven-man blitz and having Penn State get easy touchdowns twice.]

I'm going to dispense with the cute. This was a debacle. Michigan abandoned a defensive philosophy that hadn't exactly shone against Iowa but did put Michigan in a position where better play here or there from one player would have gotten redzone stops. They forced five three-and-outs and endured an avalanche of short fields and turnovers, looking sort of respectable against a veteran offense with solidly above average numbers. The Mathlete had their performance about three points worse than an average defense. They did this without Mike Martin.

Michigan gets a bye week. They play a team without a mobile quarterback running the same assortment of conventional power and inside zone plays they've faced. They:

  1. Install Ray Vinopal at FS.
  2. Move Cam Gordon to spur and displace the Johnson/Gordon combo.
  3. Install a bizarre three-man line package that's somewhat like a stack but not really a stack.

All of these moves fail. Cam is the worst spur we've had all year because he's been playing it for a week and a half. Vinopal is clearly overmatched whenever called upon. And the 3-3-5 sees Michigan give up 41 points to a team that was 82nd in yardage, 99th in scoring, and starting a backup walk-on quarterback. Penn State scores on all but two of nine real drives. 41 points on nine real drives. Without a single turnover.

Every single move made in the bye week is a detriment, and two people have now told me that at half time the adjustment made to Kenny Demens's alignment was a result of Demens himself asking for it. Michigan badly regressed after a panicked bye week adjustment that saw them slide to the 3-3-5 and fail at it, which is exactly what happened in 2008. This doesn't even cover it

mathlete-psu

…because the chart doesn't know Robert Bolden was out.

Michigan needs to pick one thing and do it. Right now what are they? Are they a stack? Are they a 4-3? Are they a 3-4? The answer to all of these questions is "no."

You know who did this? You know what is going on here? Do you know the thing that is happening to Michigan's defense?

"They're going to have to learn about us, OK? Let them try to stop a pro-style [defense], which has multiple personnel groups and multiple formations. Let's see how they are going to do. They've had their advantage because I've come into recruiting late. Well, now it's Xs and Os time. Let's see who has the advantage now."

weis-e-coyote

We've been Weis-ed. This is the equivalent of running a spread option against Georgia Tech and then abandoning it a quarter into the season. Michigan is running around with ten freshmen playing meaningful time and not one of them has any idea what they're supposed to be doing down to down. Greg Robinson has never had a successful college defense except for his one year at Texas where he just went with the flow before moving on, and his pedigree comes from the NFL. GERG E. Coyote, man.

So… your firing stance after the review of the game?

Even stronger. Michigan needs to get a proven collegiate defensive coordinator by paying ridiculous money and boot at least two and probably all of the other defensive assistants so he can bring in whoever he wants, and he needs an iron fist. There are two possibilities here: either GERG thought this stack was a good idea and needs to be fired, or GERG cannot maintain control over the gameplanning despite what happened in 2008 and needs to be fired along with everyone else.

GTFO.

Got a better example of the stack incoherence that got Kenny Demens eaten?

Yeah:

One step, he reads it, he tries to get back, he's way too close to the LOS and any release from an OL eats him.

How much brunt do the players bear?

Quite a bit, obviously. I mean:

death6.2

JT Floyd had three instances of the worst coverage I've seen in my life. The one where he correctly read a stop-and-go only to run himself to the sideline five yards in front of the WR is even worse than this one, which is heroagagdddgsagasfying as is. In its glory:

McGloin threw about four terrible passes that a secondary with "players" "somewhat near" the "opponent" coulda/shoulda intercepted. On zero of them was the coverage within yards. Floyd's regressed badly and while Michigan's secondary was horrible with him they're not going to be much more horrible without him.

I won't get on anyone else too badly since we all knew the NT was death minus Martin and the other guys with big shiny negatives are freshmen who shouldn't see the field until they're redshirt juniors (Vinopal, Talbott) or second year players who've been jerked around into positions they aren't suited to and don't know very well (Roh, Cam Gordon). It's obvious why they're bad. This is Floyd's third year and he's not good.

It's symbolic that this is the play where it all went to hell:

Demens has that dead to rights if he can just get some gang tackling help. Marvin Robinson whiffs, Cam Gordon vacates the only area Royster can go, and Royster makes a terrific play to spin outside for the first down. Great play, but you can't spin past three guys without something having gone horribly wrong. That's a true freshman and a redshirt freshman who was a wide receiver last year and a safety last week. FFFUUUUUUUU.

Heroes?

Ryan Van Bergen.

Goats?

Greg Robinson, everyone in the secondary, Not Mike Martin, and whoever decided Craig Roh should play linebacker.

What does it mean for blah blah blah?

Everyone will score every time they touch the ball this year and when Greg Robinson is fired after the season Michigan will hire a Tecmo Super Bowl cartridge to run their defense.

Lehman Brothers

Lehman Brothers

Submitted by Brian on November 1st, 2010 at 12:52 PM

10/30/2010 – Michigan 31, Penn State 41 – 5-3, 1-3 Big Ten

greg-robinson-failgreg-robinson-fail2greg-robinson-fail3
these were the same pictures used in the very first Greg Robinson post and were named –fail1, –fail2, –fail3.

A few years back my fiancée (then girlfriend) and I had one of those conversations that draw out over two weeks. You have them when the other person's position is so bizarre and unbelievable that unlocking the reasoning behind it is important if you're going to hang around this person for a long time—because it's possible the reasoning goes something like "I'm a stabby person who stabs you in the stab places."

The argument was about the narrative of overarching, capital-P Progress that the world is or is not making. I, the engineer, pointed to various statistics that all point in the right direction. She regarded all of it as different paths to the same thing: misery for all but a few. A Foxconn factory is just a handy place to jump off, and they take even that away from you.

I don't think we ever came to a satisfactory conclusion despite the lingering threat of stabbing, but I don't think we have to anymore. Since that conversation the world's financial system exploded, the economy fell into a deep and lingering malaise that figures to last most of a decade, and Greg Robinson was hired to coordinate Michigan's defense.

-------------------------------------

The worst part has been the illusion. Actually, the worst part has been the actual progress. The worst part has been a combination of the illusion and the progress. The worst part has been a combination of the illusion and the progress and the relentless losing.

The illusion: two straight years Michigan has leapt out to a hot start only to see all the supposedly quality wins evaporate. A thrilling win over Notre Dame devalued as the Irish collapse into a heap of laughable crap. UConn goes from team on the verge of a Big East championship to a team that can't even keep its head above water in a horrible conference. Indiana is still not a surprisingly good, competitive version of Indiana. It's just Indiana. Then there is losing, and not competitively.

The actual progress: Michigan has the #1 yardage offense in the Big Ten by a huge margin. The gap between Michigan and #2 Ohio State is considerably bigger than the gap between Ohio State and #7 Iowa. The prophesied Rodriguez Leap, which did happen last year, happened again this year. Rodriguez is what he was sold as.

That progress looked like enough to get Rodriguez through 2010 into a prove-it 2011 until some walk-on shredded Michigan for 28 first-half points. If Progress means not being Minnesota, Michigan is failing. At some point last night the extremely depressing score was 31-10 and the ticker scrolled to the OSU-Minnesota game, which was also 31-10. The Gophers managed to hold Penn State to a mere 33 points and caused them to punt an astounding six times. Michigan did it twice. A comprehensive description of the ways in which Michigan's defense failed last night is impossible, but here's an attempt: Penn State scored 24 points against Kent State, 22 against Temple, 13 against Illinois, and 44 against Youngstown State… with their starting quarterback.

Youngstown State is a 3-6 I-AA team ranked 94th in total defense. They are the closest comparison to Michigan's D amongst Penn State's opponents to date.

So.

Greg Robinson should be fired. Tomorrow, yesterday, bring in Gary Moeller, bring in anyone, don't care. He should never have been hired, just like Jay Hopson and apparently Scott Shafer. At the time of his hiring he was a decade removed from his last sustained success, fresh off driving a respectable Syracuse program into Washington State territory. As a head coach, he sounded like an idiot. His team played like he was an idiot. Michigan hired him and has gotten exactly what they deserved.

The worst part other than the illusion and the actual progress and the relentless losing is that this was obvious at the time:

Anyway: being a stunningly incompetent head coach does not necessarily mean one is a stunningly incompetent coordinator. Numbers will have to make that case. Go, numbers, go!

Year Team PassEff Rush Scoring Total
2008 Syracuse 101 101 101 101
2007 Syracuse 109 108 104 111
2006 Syracuse 81 110 72 107
2005 Syracuse 37 97 67 57
2004 Texas 31 16 18 23

Er.

tweek-aargh_1440

I'm a little stressed out by that. Robinson walked into a good situation at Texas* and managed not to screw that up, then went to Syracuse, where he had an average defense on a horrid team (1-10), which he then proceeded to crater for the next three years. Before his brief, star-making turn at Texas—again, for doing nothing more than treading water—he presided over one of the worst defenses in the NFL, getting fired after three years. The last actual success you can plausibly attribute to Greg Robinson came during his tenure as the Denver Broncos' DC, when his defenses were top ten in the NFL and a significant aid in Denver's back-to-back championships. Since then it's been abject failure save the one year in Texas.

Now it's even more blitheringly obvious. Syracuse is 6-2 despite Doug Marrone having R-U-N-N-O-F-T huge swathes of Robinson's leftover pack of unmotivated jackaninnies and while Scott Shafer's defense has gotten bombed in a couple games and is severely overrated because of games against two terrible I-AA schools and the worst I-A school (0-9 Akron, 56-10 losers to WMU and everyone else), the last two weeks they've allowed 7 and 14 points in road games against West Virginia and Cincinnati. Neither of those teams is good at offense, but neither is Penn State.

Greg Robinson is a terrible football coach. Hiring him was literally the dumbest thing Rich Rodriguez could have done, and he did it. Hiring Jay Hopson to see him leave two years later was a terrible decision, as was whatever the fiasco was with Shafer. The rot on defense goes deeper than Robinson, though—Michigan has insisted on being "multiple" this year, to what purpose is unknown. Week after week Michigan plays teams that sit in a 4-3 with a two-deep shell and play defense adequately enough for this Michigan team to be headed for a New Year's Day Bowl; Michigan has not maintained the same system year-to-year during the Rodriguez era, largely because the leftover guys on the staff are all 3-3-5 guys and they keep insisting that these DCs who have never run the system become One of Us. Braves and Birds nailed this problem when he compared it to Tommy Tuberville's zombie offensive assistants submarining Tony Franklin and eventually Tuberville himself.

Michigan's addiction to the 3-3-5 is causing them to do the exact same thing Rodriguez rejected as dumb his first year when he installed the spread because that's what he knew how to coach—they're shoehorning a coach into a system when that coach doesn't even know how to properly align his middle linebacker. At left, Michigan's horrible defense. At right, West Virginia's excellent 2007 D:

ezeh-nt-right-1wvu-2007-inside-zone

Kenny Demens finally moved further from the LOS in the second half of the Penn State game. The supposedly attacking, slanting, different-front-making defense has been a passive heap of quivering goo coached by someone who clearly doesn't understand what the system he is running is supposed to accomplish. Robinson's been put in a terrible position, but he has no track record save blithering idiocy and there is no reason to retain him.

As for Rodriguez, well, hell. The are four games left, for one. Michigan is #4 in total yardage nationally and isn't scoring at an insane pace only because the special teams and defense have been beyond terrible. The special teams were not a problem before this year and really the only problem this year has been the kicker*, which is a thing that just happens sometimes in college. If they overhaul the defensive coaching by either bringing in an actual 3-3-5 guy like Jeff Casteel—who may be in need of a job after the season—or toss the Tuberville saboteurs overboard and bring in a Serious Man, I'd be willing to see where the Denard Robinson era ends up.

*(Willing to bet that by year's end Michigan isn't giving up any yards on an average exchange of punts; kickoff returns have been bad but that's an incredibly minor facet of the game—an average team is gaining one more yard per attempt than M.)

Bullets

Change please. How many terrible decisions does Jeremy Gallon have to make before he loses his job at returning things?

Also: gararagagagargh Vincent Smith third and two. Hopkins's fumble was not his fault; Robinson put the ball in his shoulder. (I'm surprised he handed the ball off high—if Smith was in the game Robinson's handoff would have been in Smith's facemask.) Shaw can't be healthy, Cox is not healthy, Toussaint is not healthy… it's actually possible that Angry Michigan Running Back Hating God has been more wroth than Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God this year. The tailback situation is so bad that even Fred Jackson has gone no sugarcoat:

“We have to play better,” Jackson said. “Let’s call a spade a spade. We’ve got to play better. We’ve got plays there to be made and we’re not making them, I’m talking from the running back position.

“We have to play better.”

This is different from Jackson's usual approach of calling a spade a fantastical thousand-story casino in the clouds.

DerpBord. The circumstances behind hiring Greg Robinson are eerily similar to those behind the re-hire of Mike DeBord after his "no mas" faceplant at Central Michigan, down to the seemingly more competent guy being pushed out due to unconfirmed but widely speculated conflict. One dollar Robinson is assistant (to the) linebackers coach in the NFL next year.

The Ron English Effect. The next defensive coordinator (or next head coach, depending) is in line for a mega Ron English Effect, wherein some guy takes over a crew of players returning a ton of starters and looks like a genius for improving them when all he really did is not prevent his players from aging normally. In 2006, Ron English inherited Alan Branch, Lamarr Woodley, David Harris, Prescott Burgess, Shawn Crable, and Leon Hall and looked like a genius. The next year absent all those guys save Crable he was bombed into oblivion during The Horror and Post-Apocalyptic Oregon Game.

Anyway, next year's DC gets every starter back save Mouton, Rogers, and Banks, adds Troy Woolfolk, and should have a healthy Mike Martin. He could pick his teeth and look SMRT.

Martin doom. It's clear by now that Martin's injury is the dreaded high ankle sprain and we probably won't see him play effectively the rest of the season. Hurray.

Elsewhere

Aw, hell, it's just variations of this with either equal or slightly less tolerance for Rodriguez's terrible choices on the defensive side of the ball. I do like the Hoover Street Rag saying the "shields are down." That's about right. Zook is loading his photon torpedoes.

Unverified Voracity Needs A Posse

Unverified Voracity Needs A Posse

Submitted by Brian on November 24th, 2009 at 2:47 PM

Site note: remember how I said the blog would be off Thursday and Friday? Psyche. Tim will be around posting up basketball content. I'm taking a couple days off, but the Old Spice Classic will get its due around here.

Hey, thanks for the timely assist. The AP follows up the UV from yesterday that mocked Terry Foster's baseless blog post about Rodriguez's lack job security—the theory being that big money donors would wake up two weeks from now, find out Michigan is 5-7, and revolt—with a few timely quotes from uber-donor Stephen Ross:

"If he has a bad year next year, he'll have a lot more pressure," Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross told The Associated Press, standing near midfield before the Wolverines lost to Ohio State on Saturday to finish 5-7. "I don't think he has anything to worry about right now in my mind." …

"People take shots at him for whatever reason," Ross said. "Some people like to beat people when they're down. I think he's a great man and he's been a winner wherever he's been.

"It's just that a lot of people don't like change. I think it will all work out."

Dollars to donuts some hack picks up on "doesn't have anything to worry about right now" and spins it into  a grim tale of a pre-2010 firing. Hell, this very article manages to quote Mary Sue Coleman's explicit statement of support for not just this year but next…

"I don't think it's fair to coaches to bring them in and say, `We're going to give you three years,'" Coleman told The Journal early this month. "When Tommy Amaker came in, we stuck with him for six years. It just wasn't going to work; it wasn't the right fit. But it wasn't a rushed decision."

…and deploy this sentence:

One person can end the speculation about Rodriguez's future and she has declined to do it.

IT'S IN YOUR ARTICLE. AAAARGH. LOOK AT THIS HEADLINE

lolmsm-fire-rod AAARGH

An annual tradition, now with glass houses.

posse_officers Michigan State's now-annual Posse Roundup & Engineer/Woman Beatdown was moved up this year:

Witnesses and students involved in the incident said a group of 15 to 20 men, who some described as MSU football players, stormed into the dormitory and hit and injured about seven students, some of them women.

Brent Mitchell, a communication junior who said he was sent to Lansing’s Sparrow Hospital after being punched in the face, said some of the men wore ski masks, but others were recognized as football team members.

“I walked up and said, ‘It isn’t worth it.’ A guy with dreadlocks hit me and in the scuffle slapped, hit females to get them out of the way,” Mitchell said.

It'll be interesting to see the reaction of the Detroit media to this since it seems explicitly caused by Dantonio's limp-wristed response to last year's PREWB. There is a straight line drawn from last year's incident to Dantonio's refusal to levy any serious sanctions, including on the guy who spent the summer in jail and became the starting running back, to mechanical engineering students being terrorized:

Mechanical engineering sophomore Andrew Green said he saw one of the men hit another student on his way out. “He was coming downstairs and looked at him and punched him in the jaw,” Green said.

“There was some medic treating this kid sitting in lounge area,” [journalism freshman Mitch Lex] said. “It looked like he had a baseball in his cheek.”

Even better: none of these kids had done anything to the football team. Like the Saint Patrick's Day Nerd Massacre, the target was not in the area of the violence. Posse fail.

Say what you want about Justin Feagin, but Feagin was not on the Michigan roster for a millisecond after Rodriguez found out about his cocaine blues, and if the sexual assault case against anonymous 18-year-old proves founded he won't be on the team either. If Dantonio doesn't come down on another incident where a quarter of his team roams around beating up innocent students, we'll get to see the power of public relations in full bloom. What will it take for reality to overcome preconceived notions of Rodriguez as an outlaw and Dantonio a saint?

And now for the best reason to mention this, via the comments of the above article:

If you ever find yourself being attacked by an MSU football player, just yell “Wheel Route” and you’ll quickly find yourself being left all alone.

The RCMB has been here.

Grist. Notre Dame is about to undertake a coaching search and some guy who wrote some book also wrote a letter to some newspaper about what sort of coach Notre Dame should hire next. It might be of interest given Michigan's current situation:

When Notre Dame hires an experienced, successful, major college football head coach, the success rate in turning the Irish into national champions is 100 percent. When Notre Dame hires anybody else, the success rate is 14 percent.

You read that correctly. Since 1940, every single time Notre Dame has hired a college football head coach who has taken multiple teams to major bowls and achieved Top 10 national rankings, he has coached the Irish to at least one national championship and has posted regular Top 10 finishes in the national rankings. Every single time.

This neatly excludes Willingham and is kind of a weird, hacky metric. Lou Holtz hadn't taken multiple teams to major bowls unless my perception of mid-70s bowl games is way off and the Peach, Liberty, and/or Bluebonnet bowls were big deals. So the "multiple teams" metric is kind of weird. Please note that Brian Kelly does not meet this standard and should be avoided at all costs, kthx.

Relevant for Michigan is that coaches who have established major successful programs have been successful at Notre Dame, and this is likely to hold true at Michigan given enough time.

Etc.: Jimmah! No! I agree with the WLA: if you make a list of "things Notre Dame has going for it" Clausen is in the top three with Floyd and Tate; you should probably start your guys to punch list at #4. The Big Ten basketball resume picks up a couple of nice wins with Purdue beating Tennessee and Wisconsin taking out Illinois; does Iowa get half a win for being tied with Texas at halftime? Yes? No. UMHoops gets Creighton's pulse. Henri, anglicized, is in a movie.