Behind the Sticks: Advanced Stats and Brady Hoke’s Offense

Behind the Sticks: Advanced Stats and Brady Hoke’s Offense

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on May 21st, 2015 at 10:00 AM

hoke_glanzman

[Adam Glanzman]

“Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's the Dude, in Los Angeles… But sometimes there's a man, sometimes, there's a man. Aw. I lost my train of thought here. But... aw, hell. I've done introduced him enough.” –The Stranger, The Big Lebowski

In mid-2010 I got hired by a bank to be a Customer Service Representative teller. This put me on the front lines of the never-ending war between people’s money and the financial organizations that hold it. I learned very quickly that there were two things that could turn a mild-mannered citizen into a venom-spewing troglodyte: bank fees and Rich Rodriguez.

I loved when people came into the bank wearing college gear because it meant I’d be able to easily strike up a conversation about football, and people are a little less likely to verbally assault you when you’re able to find some common ground. The operative word in that last sentence is “little,” but I digress. By the fall of 2010 people were so fixated on the abject disaster that was Michigan’s defense that they willfully ignored how incredible the offense was. This was the fuel they needed to turn the “RichRod isn’t a ‘Michigan Man’” fire into a raging inferno, and it got so out of control that I talked to people who were even criticizing Rodriguez’s wife for not being Michigan-y or Michigan-ish or something crazy like that. At one point someone complained to me about her having blonde hair.

The Microscope of Public Scrutiny was so zoomed in on Rodriguez and everything surrounding him that Dave Brandon was able to make the Free Press look stupid and then lie in wait. At some point in 2010 Brandon’s opinion aligned with the bank’s clients; to them, the Rodriguez experiment had failed. Enter: Brady Hoke.

Hoke represented everything that the anti-Rodriguez movement wanted: familiarity with the program, a defensive background, and the mixture of self-oriented humility manifest in his claim that he’d walk across the country for the job and the program-oriented bravado in the interminable fergodsakes claim.

The honeymoon phase lasted a full season, but by the end of Hoke’s fourth year the program was in a place similar to where he found it, a place all too familiar to Michigan’s fanbase. One side of the ball was above average, but the other side was in such shambles that the team collapsed under the dead weight. 

**********

 

"Once we get the power play down, then we'll go to the next phase. You know, because we're gonna run the power play."

Brady Hoke, 3/23/2011

The transition from Rich Rodriguez to Brady Hoke was like switching from cold brewed coffee to run-of-the-mill drip coffee; a move away from the newer, higher-octane movement and toward what felt more traditional, the tried and true. The fallout from this was immediately apparent in the speculation that one of the most dynamic players to every don the winged helmet might transfer to a school with an offense better suited to his talents (i.e. a school that wouldn’t put him under center and have him hand the ball off).

In what may be one of the most significant events in program history (more on that later), Denard stayed. Al Borges still tried to put Denard under center and Michigan did rep power, but there were enough zone reads incorporated to allow Denard to continue waking up opposing defensive coordinators in cold sweats. You know all of this. You watched it unfold. That also means you watched crimes perpetrated against manpanda and an offense hell-bent on skinning its forehead running against a brick wall before finally, mercifully, abandoning their MANBALL-big-boy-football-noises ideals and exploding out of the shotgun.

This piece is intended to be the counterpoint to the memory’s emphasis on the spectacular. The intent isn’t to accuse, but to take a more calculated look at what exactly happened to Michigan’s offense over the last four years and see where things went well, as well as where and how things stopped functioning.

[After THE JUMP: charts and tables]

Monday Presser 11-24-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 11-24-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 25th, 2014 at 2:03 PM

Nuss

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Doug, one more game this season. The offense…was it what you expected? Are you disappointed? Can you talk about the progress of the offense and what your expectations were at the beginning of the season and now heading into Ohio State, where you guys are 13th of 14 in total offense?

“Obviously our expectations are a lot higher than where we’re at right now. As I’ve touched on throughout the season you talk about individual improvement [and it] hasn’t necessarily led to total group improvement. Do feel good about the things that we’re progressing in. You talk about the ability to run the football. I believe in the last three we’re averaging like 207 yards a game or something like that rushing in the last three games. Really feel like that line’s starting to gel together. You talk about protection and the fact that we gave up two this week; one was an assignment error and we gave up one true sack on a zero blitz. We got caught by surprise. We’ve got to have a better plan down there as far as getting the ball out of our hands, and then a week ago we didn’t give up any sacks. The week before we had one coverage sack, so you talk about protection [and] I believe we’re substantially better there in the things that we’re doing.

“Talk about individual accomplishments and the development of Amara Darboh. I think [he’s] a guy that you look at what he’s done over the course of the season. A true left tackle, Mason Cole [and] his individual growth. We lose Derrick Green and see DeVeon step up and Drake step and what they’ve been able to [do]. Jake Butt coming off the injury has been limited a little bit in what he can and can’t do, but you go across the board you see a lot of individual accomplishments. Guys that are getting better, groups that are getting better. We still need to bring it all together and get to a complete game. We haven’t had that yet.”

What about point production, because it’s been a couple weeks since Devin’s had a touchdown pass?

“Well, I wouldn’t look at you’ve got to have a touchdown pass to say you’re successful. That, to me, is not defining success. Obviously throwing touchdown passes is a part of the game but if we’re going to run it we’re going to run it. You look at- like you said, we’d like to score more points. We need to score more points.”

 

What are the toughest venues in which you’ve ever taken a team to run an offense, because most would say Ohio State sees Michigan coming in and that’s going to be one of them?

“Well, obviously to go to the Horseshow to play in this football game is something special. Any time you play on the road and in situations where it’s going to be loud, where you know it’s going to be a hostile environment you’ve got to be prepared very well and you’ve got to be focused in and you’ve got to execute, and everybody’s got to be on the same page. There’s no margin for error.”

 

After the game Brady Hoke mentioned it was the first time Devin’s been healthy in more than a month. At this point is he still getting healthier, or in what ways can you use him differently now that you can run?

“You get to this point in the season and I don’t know that anybody gets healthier at this point in the season, and that’s one of the hardest things about playing this sport is that when you play at this level and type of conference we have here in the Big Ten and week in and week out have to go out and do it every week against the physical style of play we see it’s challenging mentally. And then like coach said Devin from the standpoint of his physical health had some ailments there, and we’ve gotten him relatively healthy. Obviously I don’t think anybody’s as fresh as they are week 1 of the season.”

[More after THE JUMP]

Monday Presser 11-17-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 11-17-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 18th, 2014 at 2:02 PM

nuss 9-15

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How does a healthier Devin [Gardner] expand the offense a little bit, and what does that give you?

"Obviously any time you have a healthy quarterback that's a good thing, and having the week off has allowed Devin to heal up a little bit and that's really good. Excited about- obviously when you have the type of guy Devin is with his ability to run the football it creates options for you."

 

Aside from his ability or inability against Northwestern to move and really create with his legs, what were the issues in having pretty good field position a lot of times but not being able to cash in?

"Yeah, disappointing. Had lots of opportunities there to score points. Didn't get it done. I think you look at a couple key statistics we talk about all the time: third downs we were 1-of-12. That's not good enough. A number of things. We turned the ball over three times. Had the two turnovers and then a turnover on downs. We put the ball on the ground one time [and] were able to recover it. Once again it goes back to consistency. Getting 11 guys doing the right thing on every play."

 

Drake Johnson gets a second chance [against Northwestern]. Saw him balancing carries with DeVeon. What would you like out of Drake and what are you looking to do with the two of them for Maryland and in the future?

"Well, obviously we've said all along we're going to play more than one back and the way the season's played out with Derrick's injury, and he continues to get more healthy as we go on here- you've got DeVeon. Drake's done a nice job. Justice Hayes has been banged up a little bit so that's limited him a little bit. Obviously we said we're going to play multiple backs and we kind of play the hot hand at the time and rotate them. Some of them are scripted by play because we feel some guys run different plays better than others. Others are by kind of possession and who has the hot hand, so to say."

[After THE JUMP: The kids are alright (according to Nuss)]

Monday Presser 11-3-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 11-3-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 4th, 2014 at 2:03 PM

nuss 9-15

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When you’re grading film on Devin Gardner how much do the near-misses, the picks that maybe should have been, factor into that and how much do you talk about that?

“A lot. I mean, that’s always part of the evaluation. You want results but you’ve got to be process-oriented when you play the position. We’ve got to be on the right side of the field and have our eyes in the right place and our feet and timing and all that factors in, so any time we look at a pass play we look at all the factors that play into it whether it was a successful or not-successful play and why.”

Do you feel like you got away with a couple on Saturday?

“Well, I think there was a couple that I’m sure they felt like they should have had and obviously we look at it as well. Why were we there? Was it timing wrong or on the wrong side of the field, did we made a poor decision? The biggest thing is that goes back to communication and we talk all the time in our room [that] you’ve got to be open in communication because if I don’t know what he’s seeing then I can’t help him, so you’ve got to tell me what you see, what happened, what played out in your mind so now we can paint the real picture of what happened and get it corrected.”

 

How much extra does game performance count in terms of evaluation as opposed to practice? I’m thinking particularly in this instance of Drake Johnson.

“Well, I think obviously any time you play a game the goal is to play well and the best players in games are the guys you want to play. Now, that being said we evaluate practice every day. Guys challenge and compete and usually it’s very rare that you have a player that does not practice well that plays well.”

Does what he did give him maybe an extra look in terms of more snaps going forward?

“Well, I think that when you talk about Drake and what he accomplished it goes back to everything we talked about in the development of players and it’s kind of similar, it is very similar- I look back at where Derrick Green was at. We talked about right before he went down he had two very good weeks of practice and really kind of started to develop, and you look at Drake, once Derrick got injured the last two weeks he had two outstanding weeks of practice. Had the opportunity this week, did some great things, and [we’re] really excited about what he brings.”

 

To piggyback on what you were talking about earlier, how did Devin grade out? How would you evaluate him in that game?

“Devin did some really good things and he did some things we need to correct. Obviously 22/29, completed some balls, did some good things, two touchdowns, obviously the one interception we’d like to have back and there were a couple other decisions but he did some good things and he did some things that we corrected.”

[After THE JUMP: Talking about Drake, Darboh, and the Devins]

Monday Presser 10-27-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 10-27-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on October 28th, 2014 at 9:01 AM

Nuss

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You were really animated in the fourth when the touchdown was scored. What were the emotions like?

“I mean, the one touchdown we scored, that’s a big play in a four quarter game. We’re always talking about competing and challenging, don’t worry about the scoreboard, play. Just excited that our guys had a positive thing happen to them. They fought and struggled and it would have been easy to throw in the towel, so I wanted to let them know that we’re going to be there, we’re going to encourage them, [and] we’re going to coach them. When we need to correct things we’re going to correct things and when they do good things we’re going to reinforce that behavior.”

 

You said after the Notre Dame game seven weeks ago that the offense was still in its infancy. We’ve seen some growing, but why is this team still struggling to find offensive consistency and what’s it going to take to get that with the window on the season closing?

“Sure. A number of reasons, and we talk about it. Same story, and I know I sound like a broken record, but when you look at what we’ve done the number one thing is turnover margin. You cannot turn the ball over three times and expect to win football games. We’ve talked about it week in and week out. At times we’ve limited that but we haven’t completely eliminated it the way we need to, so it’s a focal point every day and  we talk about it and we do drills in practice to practice it. It’s something our kids understand. We’ve just got to get better at it.

“The other thing is consistency in performance. We see week in and week out guys improve. The challenge we’ve had is getting all 11 guys at one time to be doing the right thing at the right time. You can see it compartmentalized a little bit and maybe you have one time here where this group does it right and this group doesn’t do theirs right, so it’s trying to get everybody on the same page. We’re still working to find the right answers.”

 

You played Shane Morris for a play instead of a series or not at all…

“Yeah, we were in a situation there towards the end of the game we told Devin, ‘Shane’s getting loose.’ We were in a situation where we didn’t know where the ball [would be] if we got it back at that point in time or not, so Shane went in for the play. We felt like Devin needed to finish the game being that he’s from Michigan and [it’s] his last time to play Michigan State so we put him back in the game.”

[After THE JUMP: Mind games before actual games]

Monday Presser 10-20-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 10-20-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on October 21st, 2014 at 9:02 AM

Nuss

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What’s it like seeing this rivalry from the other side? Obviously you’ve coached at Michigan State. What’s the view when you had never been a part of it before [at Michigan]?

“Well, it’s one of the classic rivalries in all of college football and I’m very excited to get the opportunity to be a part of it and I know our kids are very, very excited about the opportunity.”

When you were at Michigan State what was it like?

“Any time you play in a game, whether it be an in-state rivalry game or a conference rivalry game and some of them are out-of-conference rivalry games, the important thing is the focus on the game itself and you can get caught up and lost in the things that surround the game. Any time you’re on either side it’s about the players preparing. It’s about preparing them the best you possibly can and giving them the opportunity to be in the right situations to play well.”

Any of those games stick out to you from when you were there?

“I think any time you’re a part of these games they all stick out to you. Obviously probably the one that was played right here [Ed.- he’s referring to Braylonfest] was one that goes down as a great, great football game. Really was.”

 

They obviously play pretty good defense. Without giving away what you want to do, what are the key things that they do that you have to combat?

“Well, I think when you look at them they’re an outstanding defensive football team. They do a really good job of stopping the run and they get guys and they commit to the box and they do a really good job of tackling. They tackle well. You don’t see a lot of missed tackles. And then when you do have a play you see their ability to make an adjustment and take that play away, so I think that the biggest thing about the game is we have to understand the plan very well. We have to understand how they’re going to line up in the different blitzes and things that they’re going to try and approach us with, and then we have to execute.”

 

In the past Michigan has had a problem with Michigan State bringing linebackers through the A gap. I wonder if there’s a standard way of dealing with that or is that a pre-snap read the quarterback has to make or-

“Well, when you look at their base defense that’s one of their base blitzes that they run against everybody that they play against. One of the things it does [is] it creates obviously pressure on the interior of your line and pressure within the quarterback’s line of vision. A lot of people that run that- I don’t know their exact philosophy but it’s to create problems and pressure in the quarterback’s lap so he doesn’t feel like he has a real pocket to step up into so obviously it’s a blitz that’s part of their base package and something that we’ll prepare for.”

[After THE JUMP: Why were the MSU coaches covered in glass after the ‘04 game and some strategy talk]

Upon Further Review 2014: Offense vs Penn State

Upon Further Review 2014: Offense vs Penn State

Submitted by Brian on October 20th, 2014 at 4:23 PM

FORMATION NOTES: Another very gun-heavy outing for Michigan, with nothing particularly unusual about the way they lined up. Penn State spent most of the game in a straight 4-3 of various varieties. Late they went to an eagle front for a couple plays:

image

Note that Miller has guys to both sides of him. That erases any chance Michigan can double on the interior and exposed Miller to a DT he could not deal with physically. Michigan responded to this with a pin and pull that worked on the next play.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: No Magnuson still, so line still Cole/Glasgow/Miller/Kalis/Braden. Jake Butt seems to be getting as much time as he would have without the knee injury by now; Williams still hanging on to quite a bit of PT in Hill's absence.

At RB it was all Hayes/Smith with Green sidelined; WRs were as per usual with a little bit of Canteen.

[After THE JUMP: struggling forward.]

Monday Presser 10-6-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 10-6-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on October 7th, 2014 at 3:15 PM

nuss 9-15

file, but he had the same pullover on so not really

Can you talk about the loss of Derrick Green a little bit and how it impacts you? He looked like he had one of his best games. Two really good carries and then the clavicle injury.

“Well, obviously disappointing to lose Derrick and it was one of his better games. Felt like he was really dialed in focused, ran extremely hard. So we’ve got great expectations for the other guys. DeVeon’s done an outstanding job all season, as has Justice. Some other guys have got to step up. Drake’s got to step up and we’ll continue to move forward and we’ll feel good about those guys moving forward.”

 

When you look at Devin, what were the changes that you saw from, I guess, the benching until Saturday? Were there dramatic improvements in his play?

“The biggest thing I think, Devin- I’ve talked about it all season. His preparation has been second to none. He’s done an outstanding job each and every week of preparing himself to play, and I felt like he played extremely fast in this game. Made some really good decisions. Obviously he had the one interception, but other than that- and that was a matter of circumstance more than anything else, but he played I thought extremely fast and effective.”

 

With Drake and Justice, can you talk about- you’ve seen them a lot more than any of us. Talk about what they bring to the field when they’re on the field.

“Well, I think you’ve seen Justice has played a lot for us in third-down type situations to date. Outstanding protector. Really understands defense. Understands how to see blitzes, recognize, and does a really outstanding job in protection.

“Drake has done a really good job in practice, so it’s just been more a matter of numbers than anything for him. He’s a slashing-type back. Has really good vision, and looking forward to having an opportunity to get him out there.”

 

With DeVeon, he hasn’t ever had more than 10 carries in a game. With this opportunity, how do you see him taking that on his back. Can he be a 25, 30 carries a game guy?

“Well he’s been preparing to carry it as many times as need be all season long, and just a matter of circumstance at times. Derrick’s done a really nice job and he hasn’t gotten as many touches, but if you look at the productivity in his touches it’s been really good.”

 

I know that we talked about Devin’s health and you guys want to keep him health obviously, but at what point do you make it a priority to sort of get him more on the move and sort of let him do things with his legs? Is that something you look at here going forward?

“Well, I think I’ve said it all along. You never want to take the caliber of player that Devin is with his athletic ability and really restrict that. Tried to, from an offensive standpoint, let him let the system work for him, and then when things aren’t there make plays with his feet but obviously any time you can use the quarterback as an effective running weapon it creates another dimension the defense has to defend. On the same side of that you’ve also got to be conscious of protecting the quarterback and making sure he’s not taking undue shots.”

[After THE JUMP: the Cheshire Cat’s response to the Darboh catch]

Monday Presser 9-29-14: Doug Nussmeier

Monday Presser 9-29-14: Doug Nussmeier

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on September 30th, 2014 at 8:53 AM

nuss 9-15

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In hindsight, and this has nothing to do with an injury, should Devin Gardner have played earlier in the game on Saturday based on how Shane was playing?

“No.”

And why not?

“Well, I think you’ve got to give a guy an opportunity to play. Shane prepared very well. We talked about it for several weeks, you know, his preparation leading up to the game. He deserved that opportunity to play and we were going to let him play.”

 

Doug, what was your perspective on the Shane Morris hit that’s kind of been a question after he had the hit to the head? It looked like you kind of saw him struggling on the field. What were you saying to him and what was your take on this?

“Well, I didn’t see the hit. You can’t see- everything was lost in the field of play and the guys upstairs, you know, it was third down and it was an incompletion so I was thinking- well, they say, ‘We got a roughing penalty. We’re up.’ And I’m like, ‘Okay.’ So the first thing is okay, what are we doing now? It’s first-and-10 from a playcaller’s standpoint, and then I look up and I see Shane limping. ‘Are you okay? Are you okay?’ and he waved me off, [saying] ‘I’m fine.’ Okay. I didn’t know at that extent what had happened, really. You don’t really know because you couldn’t see from our vision on the field and Shane’s a tough, tough guy, man.”

Did you talk to him when he came off the field, and what was sort of his state of mind and clarity at that point?

“I don’t really recall having a conversation other than ‘Are you okay?’ and then you’ve got the flow of the game and everything else that was going on.”

 

Coach, is it going to be difficult for either quarterback or whatever quarterback you have in there until this offensive takes a few more steps forward in terms of pass protection and things like that?

“We’re all disappointed in our performance. We needed to perform better. We needed to play better. We needed to coach better. That’s across the board, not one position. Like I said, we’ve got to coach better and we’ve got to play better. We’ve got a lot of work to do, obviously. The only thing we can do is go back to the practice field. We went and put some pads on yesterday and worked on some things, worked on some fundamental things to try and get better at every position.”

 

Do you know who will be the starter next weekend?

“We’ll go through the week and we’ll evaluate it.”

Is it a question of- if Shane were 100% and nothing had happened injury-wise would that still be the case this week, or…?

“We’re going to challenge and compete at every position, like we say every week and see where we’re at and evaluate every guy. We’ve talked about it numerous times, [we] want to create competition at every position. Both Shane and Devin have done some really good things and we look forward to watching them compete and allow each other to be pushed and get better.”

With how, from our perspective- with how long it took for the final decision to made going into last week’s game…first of all, when was that decision made that Shane was going to be the starter?

“Well, I don’t think that when that decision’s made is really relevant. What’s relevant is that our players are pushing each other every day to get better and that we’re putting the best players at each position out there every Saturday.”

[More on Shane Morris and the hit after THE JUMP]

 

Upon Further Review 2014: Offense vs Utah

Upon Further Review 2014: Offense vs Utah

Submitted by Brian on September 25th, 2014 at 3:23 PM

FORMATION NOTES: A lot of this kind of stuff.

utah-move-

Probably 50/50 between this and gun with more gun coming late as Michigan tried to make it look like they were trying to come back without actually doing so.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Everything as per usual, with the exception of Morris's late insertion and maybe a little more playing time for Jake Butt.

AGAIN APOLOGIES: Audio on the clips is messed up this week.

[After THE JUMP: a portal to another universe where Michigan doesn't suck (I DID IT FOR THE CLIIIIIIIIIICKS)]