Hoops Opponent Watch: Closing In Edition

Hoops Opponent Watch: Closing In Edition Comment Count

BiSB February 27th, 2014 at 10:32 AM

Non-Conference Opponents

GeorgesGordonparker

RPI Effect Only Teams

RPI is dumb. It is overly simplistic, dumb, unhinged from reality, and stupid. But because the Committee looks at RPI, and this section is called “RPI Effect Only Teams,” We may as well look at RPI. Ugh.

Two teams are as bad in the RPI as they are in the bouncy shooty areas. Out of 351 teams, Houston Baptist (6-22) is #344, and South Carolina State (9-17) is #334. These are terrible teams in hindsight, and they were terrible when they were scheduled. UMass-Lowell (9-18) at #286 and Coppin State (9-18) at #254 are mildly ahead of their KenPom rankings, but is also remain very very bad.  On the other hand, Long Beach State (12-14) at #150 is behind their KenPom ranking (110). Charlotte (14-12) is at #163, which you’ll probably see several times in the coming weeks because DAMN YOU, PUERTO RICOOOOOOOO.

Big Sorts of Teams

Iowa State (22-5, 10-5 Big 12)

This week: Won @ TCU (71-60), Beat West Virginia (83-66)

Michigan and Iowa State continue their bracketology pas de deux, duking it out for one of the final 3-seeds. Iowa State is still projected to lose two more games (trips to Kansas State and Baylor).

Florida State (16-11, 7-8 ACC)

This week: Won @ Pitt (71-66)

The Seminoles are going to be a bubble team right to the end here. A win over Pitt puts them back in the picture, but they probably need at least four more wins. They have Georgia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, and the ACC tournament left, so the clock is not their friend.

#6 Dook (23-6, 12-4 ACC)

This week: Beat Virginia Tech (66-48)

We ran into a serious glitch in the Matrix this week, when someone dared to pick against KenPom:

I feared this would be one of those space-time continuum things, but just like in Back to the Future, those rules apparently don’t apply. Then again, I’m not sure there was much, even a KenPom-initiated KenPom jinx, that could have affected the outcome of a game between Duke (who is good at basketball) and Virginia Tech (who is okay at football). The lowest win probability Duke had all night was 97.5% when VaTech closed the gap to 3-2 about 90 seconds into the game.

#3 Arizona (26-2, 13-2 PAC 12)

This week: Won @ Colorado (88-61), Beat Cal (87-59)

Okay, so maybe I was a little quick on the "Arizona is dead" trigger. They plowed a couple of decent (like Minnesota/Nebraska-level) teams in Colorado and Cal. It appears they finally found a tactical solution to the absence of Brandon Ashley, and that solution is "have Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon and let them do things."

Stanford (18-9, 9-6 PAC 12)

This week: Beat UCLA (83-74) [EDIT: and lost to Arizona State in the middle of the night, (76-64)]

Bracket folks seem to have Stanford around an 8-seed right now, which probably means they’re going dancing barring an epic collapse.

[AFTER THE JUMP: The Big Ten picture becomes clearer]

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