Dear Diary is the Modern Stone Age Family

Dear Diary is the Modern Stone Age Family

Submitted by Seth on September 13th, 2013 at 10:49 AM

michigan-football-wallpaper-2013-notre-dame-widescreen-postgame

ppToilet’s post-game version of Monumental’s wallpaper

It’s been nearly a week and I’m not sure I’m back on a normal sleep schedule yet. I had to shake down Ace for our review copy of NCAA 14 back, change Devin’s number to 98, then go Michael Vick on computer defenses for hours because I wasn’t quite ready to stop watching that happen. This apparently is happened to bronxblue as well…aw hamburgers Brian already quoted that part. Here then’s a totally different stanza from this masterpiece:

Worst:  QB Vision Cone still in experimental mode

[Funchess and Butt] are young and should improve as the season comes along (especially Butt, who appeared to drop and/or run out of position for a couple of balls), but Gardner’s passing cone seems a bit skewed toward Dileo and Gallon and that could very well catch up to him as teams adjust or, knock on wood, one of them gets hurt.  For as much as I love the idea of this team’s leading receivers both being eligible for the Pomeroy Award, that would feel like a massive waste of talent at other positions on the field and, frankly, counter-productive to this team’s maturation this year and beyond.

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Brian is like 6’2” so H2V must be a big guy.

I disagree with both bronx and ST3 (in his weekly inside the box score) that the running game was effective at taking pressure off the passing. Brian already UFR’d what I saw: one big Gardner run that made the stats nice, and Fitz doing subtle things to screw with ND’s linebackers when they had him dead to rights. The particular brilliance of Gardner and Borges and Gallon and Dileo and Toussaint in this game was they managed to put up 41 points without the running game being something the defense had to cheat to. Borges picked his spots well because there wasn’t much to be had, Gallon hauled in catches while wearing cornerbacks who could be aggressive because there was help behind them, and Dileo threw his defender on his TD by doing a high-speed luau in the end zone.

More in ND postgame: HAIL 2 VICTORS did the Sports Power Weekends thing and wrote up his glowing review—Jared’s a client and I sat with him at the game so obvious bias here but, yeah, there’s a reason he’s our guy. Jamie Mac went through the recent history of favorites in this series. Brhino went through his favorite memories of the definitely-not-a-rivalry (why is Ismail in there?!?).

[Diarist of the Week and Best of the Board after the jump]

Dear Diary, the Weeklies are Back

Dear Diary, the Weeklies are Back

Submitted by Seth on September 6th, 2013 at 10:36 AM

TONIGHT! See you there, now with free food (enough for 50 people).

michigan-football-wallpaper-2013-notre-dame-widescreen

monuMental wallaper

The MGoBlog equivalent of college football is the Diaries. Nobody there has been drafted to write what they're told. Nobody there gets paid to do it. You'll find legends like MCalibur and ST3 and Enjoy Life and Six Zero and bronxblue frequenting the same threads you do. This is a place where TRADITION means something, man. For those who are new to the extra content I'll use this week to introduce some of the regular things you find there:

The Six, by Mathlete: Okay sometimes we pay these guys under the table—what, you prefer we lose this guy to the SEC? Michigan's 7.0 points per red zone trip is ridiculous. Stray thought: if Michigan has the most effective guy ever at scoring from three yards out, does that change the math of going for two? Mathlete also had a LOT of dumb punts of the week to pick from (including two by MSU). Enos cowardly kicking a field goal after their false start didn't make the cut because it wasn't a punt.

Turnover Analysis, by Enjoy Life: This one is always short and important; he breaks down the turnovers for and against by situation so you can see how much they're really affecting the game, e.g. the arm-punt doesn't hurt as much as giving the opponent the ball inside your five yard line.

Cloud of Dustdate, by Daniel: The newest weekly will help us sort out the running backs. Charting the runs is a really nice touch. Maybe make 3rd and short and inside the 5 yard line runs red in the charts so we know when it's bulldozer time.

[Jump]

Dear Diary Adds to the Wood Bling

Dear Diary Adds to the Wood Bling

Submitted by Seth on August 30th, 2013 at 12:07 PM

First some housekeeping things:

One: Meet the new tshirts:

Chicken_4C_T_1024x10241784_21_inch_rubber_chicken_1__96610.1375991605.400.400

The chicken one is a LIMITED EDITION we're printing just for this game, since afterwards there won't be any more of the cluckers around to show it to. We will be collecting orders and shipping out on 9/3. After 9/3 we will print limited run extra but then when we are out we are out, so get on that now. Also recommended: bringing rubber chickens to that game (we're not responsible if they get confiscated.)

Two: Reminder: Next Friday at MGoTailgate (on Berkeley across from the stadium), free beer, meet Marlin Jackson and others, learn things, be social.

On with the show.

There are just…

IMG_3915 plus-sign-md Fuller - Ross2

…and-a-half hours until Michigan football. As such the users have gone into their regular pre-season epic content production mode. Let's just get right to it starting with Diarist of the Week and personal favorite MCalibur.

Wait, first let's do Things You're Not Allowed to See. The first rule of Fall Camp is what happens in Fall Camp stays in Fall Camp, unless some dude spills the beans to his friend and he puts it in a diary and we confirm things like Garder==awesome, Fitz==awesome, Butt==feasible in a Funchess-last-year kind of way, OL looks like 1997's, DL depth charts are deep, Wilson is still learning, kicking==good.

Also the first rule of Mott Scrimmage is what happens at Mott Scrimmage stays at Mott Scrimmage (unless someone writes it up as a Diary that pretty much saw everything I saw). Speaking of scrimmages reshp1 went and UFR'd everything from the scrimmage featured in Countdown to Kickoff last week.

Also also the first rule of Camp Michigania is what happens at Michigania is really boring and I don't want to hear it. Anyway I can already see everything you did because it's on your kid's activity bling:

Michigania

Yes, Lizzie has been cited for improper logo use and will serve a three-game 'timeout'

Wait, Lloyd? Okay I'm sorry;  tell me tell me tell me tell me!!!! Now on to MCalibur.

[…after the jump. Also after the jump: Gardner footwork analysis, Dave Brandon's rape noodle, and other stuff]

Dear Diary Believes in Progressions

Dear Diary Believes in Progressions

Submitted by Seth on August 23rd, 2013 at 11:10 AM

Another reminder: first-ever MGoTailgate on the Friday night (Sept 6) before Notre Dame. We'll be at the MGoPatio on Berkeley Street (second house on the right coming from the stadium), gathering at 7pm and Marlin arriving for a Q&A at 8.

Now onto the user content, where Denard still exists, although in weird colors:

"Superman never wore black." –Lois Lane

DGDestroys put every Robinson play from the Jacksonville/NYJets preseason game into that enjoyable but sad-in-the-same-kind-of-Johnny-RBUAS-way-that-Mike_Hart's-face-on-the-Colts-was-sad video. Also weird: David Harris with a late hit on Denard. Somewhere out there is an imaginary guy I argued with a lot in 2010 who reads something into that. I still hate that guy.

It's on-topic season again. How do we know? Because the diaries section is back to producing content on a level that Brian has to usually pay us to write. All Stars making their triumphant return this week include MCalibur, Eye of the Tiger, and ClearEyesFullHart.

pachelbel 
Johnny Pachelbel, offensive coordinator
for the Nuremberg Baroques

Let's start with MCalibur because he uses all the same references I know, starting with Canon in D, a classical chord arrangement you probably know from attending weddings or, like, half of all songs ever written.* This is all a setup for his new metric, an expectation of wins based off net yards per game and turnover margins. Significantly, Ohio State was the extreme outlier, winning four+ more games than the 7.8 they should have by their yardage and turnover margins. And this happens to them a lot. Michigan was a game better, Michigan State two games worse. Notre Dame, Nebraska and Northwestern won two more games than they should have.

Thing: the seven teams in his study whose defense was their better unit last year (ND, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU, Iowa) were a net –2, while the six (OSU, Neb, NW, PSU, Purdue, Indiana) whose offense was its better unit were a net +7. Sample way too small but it doesn't say much for "Defense wins championships." I also compared special teams (by both FEI rank and field position rank) of over- vs under-performers and there was zero correlation there. Strength of schedule didn't explain it either (Michigan had the 3rd best SOS and finished +1).

Eye of the Tiger reprised his "Tea Leaves" prediction from last year. Last time it was "which Star Wars episode will we be?" This time it's "Which Song of Ice and Fire Novel?" ranging from the one where all the kings are finally waging war and surviving sieges to the one where GRRM just can't get over how useless nipples are on a breastplate.

[Jump for Diarist of the Week, Best of Board, Zen]

Dear Diary for the Positive Points Differential

Dear Diary for the Positive Points Differential

Submitted by Seth on August 16th, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Here's a photo that pretty much captures the quarterback depth chart:

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Fuller from the Media Day set

Borges is re-teaching Michigan about the magic of throwing this object. Freshman Garrett Moores (15) is utterly confounded by this. Alex Swieca (13) is thinking about how he can get this object to the turf. Cleary is represented only by a noodly arm. Bellomy and Morris stand in the background, tempting yet inaccessible. And then Gardner, who just has SO MANY ideas of what he can do with this brown oblong thing, smiling because he knows physics will only be a mild hindrance.

Reminding again of the Friday, September 6 event featuring Marlin Jackson and MGoBlog. MGoPatio is behind the 2nd house on the right on Berkley. We plan to start gathering around 7pm and Marlin will join us at 8. Still looking for one or two more co-sponsors for that. Free to come with an optional donation to Marlin's Foundation and/or the beer fund.

Leave it to LSAClassof2000 to verbosify a concept as simple as "loss." He compared 3rd down performance (o minus d) to winning and made pretty charts going back to the Year of Infinite Pain claiming he's discovered r-squared's latest favorite win correlation. Let's play…

IS IT MORE TELLING THAN YARDS PER PLAY?

Compare M's yardage differential to 3rd down differential and see when losing the 3rd down battle affected the outcome:

Opponent Off YPP Def YPP YPP Diff 3rdDwn Diff Result
Illinois 7.98 2.53 +5.45 +14 W 45-0
UMass 8.60 3.92 +4.68 +12 W 63-13
Iowa 8.27 5.15 +3.12 +6 W 42-17
Air Force 7.54 4.63 +2.91 -7 W 31-25
Minnesota 6.59 3.99 +2.6 -3 W 35-13
Purdue 5.84 3.49 +2.35 +4 W 44-13
Northwestern 6.76 5.46 +1.30 -6 W 38-31
MSU 5.26 4.68 +0.58 even W 12-10
Ohio State 5.94 5.66 +0.28 -9 L 21-26
Notre Dame 4.53 4.78 -0.25 +5 L 6-13
Alabama 4.80 6.84 -2.04 -9 L 14-41
Nebraska 2.94 5.02 -2.08 -2 L 9-23
S Carolina 4.33 8.04 -3.71 +7 L 28-33

Hey, whaddaya know: the games when Michigan averaged a half a yard per play or more better than their opponent they won. Third downs mattered in keeping the South Carolina, Northwestern and Air Force games closer than they might have been, and a –9 differential at Ohio State accounts for some but perhaps too little of the 21-26 final score. YPP is still better.

I'm giving Diarist of the Week to Six Zero for his best interview yet, though it should probably go to the interviewee, that champion of Mixed Marital Arts, CRex. The Cliff Notes:

Uh, Michigan? Never heard; not real school.

Stop Ruining a Funny Joke By Being Srsly. Njia wrote a Bleacher Report-y thing collecting crazy coaching moments; I'm only mentioning it because for the last friggin' time the Woody Hayes turtle story is a joke. It's a good joke. It's a very OLD joke. Hayes was insane and yes, Urban Meyer and the truth haven't been on speaking terms for a long time, but this story is an example of neither of those things because it is just a joke.

Etc. In the final episode of the k.o.k.Law miniseries our heroes enter The Dome in Atlanta with a hoops national title on the line. Oh. My. God, Becky, look at Jake Butt.

[Jump for Best of the Board and Zen]

Dear Diary Avoids Nasty 4th Downses

Dear Diary Avoids Nasty 4th Downses

Submitted by Seth on August 9th, 2013 at 9:43 AM

mgopatio

I meant to have a diary up on this already but SAVE THE DATE: FRIDAY, SEPT 6 at 7:00 P.M. we will be gathering logo2_03with Marlin Jackson and an assortment of his friends at the MGOPATIO across the street from the stadium. Details still being hammered out but it will at the very least include a Q&A session with Brian and Marlin and other luminaries. It'll be free to attend with a suggested donation to Marlin's Fight for Life Foundation, and an optional contribution to the food and beer.

Also reminder to New Yorkers that Brian and TomVH will be visiting you next Thursday, Aug. 15 at Professor Thom's between NYU and Stuyvesant Town.

Diaries:

It’s been a few weeks since I had cause to plop one of these on you; hopefully with the “There Are” posts now into backfield numbers that’ll be changing.

In the quiet time LSAClassof2000 has kept up with his charting, this time getting into 3rd and 4th down conversion success rate. The first look was pretty pedestrian, except when charting he added a percent of plays that were 1st down stat to them. I don’t think I’ve seen that stat used before, but come to think of it that’s a neat way to track offensive success, yes/no? Let’s try that:

PERCENT OF PLAYS on X DOWN:

allplaysdatabase

Clickit to make it biggit.

My data are a little different than what you can pull from cfbstats or something because I left in things like plays that resulted in defensive pass interference or offsides (offensive penalties that caused a play to be wiped were removed). Anyway Michigan was sneaky good at avoiding 4th downs last year because of the high 3rd down conversion rate. The most efficient offenses in the conference were better at avoiding 3rd downs too; those were also the spread offenses.

LSA also took a second swing at the conversion stats but went the other way, tracking the differential between offensive and defensive 3rd down conversion rates, and how that tracks with win percentage and points per game. The Michigan difference:

Michigan3rdDownWin_zpsab714892

Win your 3rd downs, win more games. My suggestion is to track this game-by-game against the opponents' average points for and against—smaller sample sizes but I bet you those swings make a huge difference in performance vs. expectation.

Bronxblue had a long "best and worst" diary to kind of preview this year's storylines. Things we'll be talking about:

  • Football (as opposed to Johnny Manziel)
  • Effect of non-Denardiness on offense
  • Running back stable no longer smurf variants
  • Less spread.
  • Where's the pass rush?
  • % less RichRodiness
  • All those four/five star kids emerging into favorites

Etc. UMass Lowell preview for hoops, will revisit when it's closer. Helpful database of Michigan's assistant coaches. MGoProfiles with gifmaker Purplestuff and ex-mod Profitgoblue.

[Jump: best of the board, moment of zen]

Dear Diary Declares National Day of Jayne

Dear Diary Declares National Day of Jayne

Submitted by Seth on July 19th, 2013 at 8:47 AM

HTTVadrotating

Available from: Draft Street PromoMGoStoreMoe's Sport ShopsUnderground Printing

Football is here, and it is beautiful. Two pallets filled with boxes with 55 books apiece arrived at Underground Printing's warehouse yesterday afternoon. The people with rush orders ought to be getting them in their mailboxes today. I've moved the writeup over to the diaries for now so all those who helped can remain standing and be recognized. If you happen to run into any of our authors, production folk, photographers, etc., celebrate these people. Hold a shindig in their honor, build a statue in their commemoration, and declare the day Eric Upchurch Day or Greg Dooley Day or Courtney Fathers Day, etc. Maybe bring a cloak and scepter to work today in case you need to drape one over them. Basketball-hockey is now in production and should be out around late September.

Diaries were weak this week. LSA's thing compared turnover margin to winning over time among too small a sample and offers no conclusions. The other was k.o.k.Law remembering the Ed Martin scandal and the '98 Rose Bowl before coming back to finish his trip to the hoops championship game story. Best to head to the board.

PEOPLE WHO PROBABLY ALREADY HAVE DAYS NAMED FOR THEM

If you're looking for MGoStaff next week, try Chicago. Big Ten Media Days are next week, and Brian will be in town to participate in an alumni group Q&A with Sam Webb and Gerry Dinardo on Wednesday. Yes the book will be there.

If you're looking for former players, try…paintball?

K4k845D

That is Vincent Smith, but those are not finger guns. People who helped support the Hope for Pahokee thing got to play a round with the Pahokee guys. I prefer to remember Smith jackrabbitting around as a freshman and finger-gunning and blocking like a mountain goat, not for his role as a supporting actor in how great Clowney looks when nobody blocks him.

DEVIN GARDNER: SEC SUPERSTAR

According to Bodogblog the SEC coaches were gushing about Devin at SEC media days. Obligatory Gardner doing stuff vs. an SEC team video:

GARAGE SALE DAY

Is today. Reportedly there were about 80 people in line before 8 a.m. to get first crack at Michigan schlock. I think Fuller is over there right now. Find him and throw a shindig.

SALUTE TO MGOSENIORS

Those who've been here since the site moved from blogspot, happy 5 years of Never Forget banners, Shavodrick Beaver news. Those who've been around since the before times will remember what it was like to live through the first coaching search. Aye, before there were sailboats there was utter panic and profiles in heroism and way more Flight Tracker. There was also the Fandom Endurance Badge, which props to the Glove for framing it.

z0r9NhI FanEndurancebadge

433609-fred_o_banion_large

Let's everyone Bruce Lee kick a Buckeye in celebration.

REVERSING THE O'BANNION EFFECT

You know how Beilein likes to get those younger-than-they-should-be guys like LeVert then cackle when they turn into 6'6 wingers. The other side of that is kids who get held back a year so that they're a year larger and more athletic while trying to distinguish themselves against high school and collegiate competition. This was going on at least as long ago as when I was a kid. Some of these kids then leap back to their correct grade if they've reached the elite mark, in order to get to the NBA sooner.

RIVALS MAKES A LIST, WE CHECK IT TWICE

MGoBlue.com put up a bunch of interviews with Michigan coaches of the various sports on Wednesday and fished a Michael Spath article out of it. Read it as "Michigan has five coaches ranked higher in their sport than Brady Hoke if anything before 2012 is a dark and mystical past." Red Berenson isn't even among the five. Frankly I'm surprised it's just that many. There are a bunch of coaches in college football's ranks who've won one or more national championships, built multiple programs to prominence, and have been simply doing it much longer than Hoke has. Meanwhile Michigan is an annual competitor for the Director's Cup because the athletic department shells out for the best of the best in many sports that SEC teams don't even bother playing. If we're not tilting to the sports people care about I don't know if Beilein would be first either; he is tops on their list because Rivals is a very "What have you done for me lately" kind of outlet. But if we're being serious about his, I mean: Carol Hutchins, Red Berenson, Kurt Golder. Chaka Daley didn't even make Spath's Top 10. Wrestling just brought in the country's top recruiting class.

ETC. Yes, Sharknado. EASports announcement freakout.

Your Moment of Zen:

kick_to_the_ear[4]

Dear Diary Points at Rose Bowl

Dear Diary Points at Rose Bowl

Submitted by Seth on July 12th, 2013 at 10:46 AM

Hoke_points_at_stuff3_thumb

I didn't have the heart to remove Becky's photo from the top of the front page. Weird thing: the (presumed) student equipment manager is in shorts and a tee but Brady has both slacks and a jacket on. I clearly remember Carr was wearing just a white polo all game. Was Brady really jacketed while the other coaches remained unfettered? At 5:27 on the tape you can see long-sleeved Brady walking behind angry Lloyd trying to explain to SEC officials that hitting is allowed in football. Weird. Diaries.

Must Read: Eight Plays and Counting. eHDgIX6I'll let EGD announce his latest thing:

This series examines the probable individual matchups Michigan would face against particular 2013 opponents on one of Michigan’s key running plays and one of its key passing plays, as well as defensively against a couple of the opponent’s key plays

So for example he'll take the play at right—the base 26 Power R, a common variation of Michigan's "Power O" (2 means RB carries it, 6 means they're going in the 6-hole, ie between the T and TE, and R means right)—and go through the personnel matchups on that play to see which team has an aggregate advantage. On the above Michigan's likely wins: Lewan on Prince Shembo. Things that seem to favor ND: Braden pulling to find WLB Dan Fox, down-blocks of Jack Miller on Sheldon Day, Kalis on Louis Nix, and Schofield on Tuitt, Joe Kerridge finding Danny Spond for a kick-out block, and Funchess executing a double-team on Tuitt then moving to the 2nd level to get to ND's middle linebacker. Advantage: Notre Dame, though I should point out a down block is one of the easier to accomplish since you start with leverage.Diaristoftheweek-EGD

The Notre Dame one has three more plays: a PA pass from our offense, and then Michigan's D versus the Irish's base zone run and one of Kelly's favorite passing plays that we're guaranteed to see because it picks on Jarrod Wilson. Yesterday he posted a second one, which goes over UConn (M's power left and PA deep flood, and UConn's curls vs. Cov2 and 4-verts vs. Cov3). Again, these are things that schematically try to pick on Wilson. Part of that is there aren't many other unknowns on the defense, but I think it's becoming pretty clear where a lot of our attention is going to be early in the season. Prophesy: Wilson will look bad early in the season as offenses consistently do things that try to make him look so. In fact if he doesn't we may have something really nice there.

By the way EGD also updated his Non-Conference Recruiting Watch series a few weeks back. The guy with the Hail to the Thief avatar wins a trophy.

ESS-EEE-SEE! In people having fun with numbers you can find online, stopthewnba pulled January bowl data to show how the Big Ten has fared overall and against the SEC in all those virtual road games. It's not as bad as you might think, except when it comes to Rose Bowls (2-12 in the documented span) and times when a national championship is on the line or an erstwhile title contender dropped down into our range (USC vs. Michigan twice, MSU vs. Alabama). Something isn't right in his spreadsheet since I know for a fact that Northwestern isn't 2-and-anything in bowl games unless the data go back to the 1940s.

More interesting perhaps was maizeonblueaction's look at demographics since 1990 in Big Ten states versus SEC ones. In the comments EGD (man, that guy this week) suggested dividing the numbers by how many major conference (ACC/Big Ten/Big XII/Pac12/SEC plus Notre Dame) teams it has to support. So I did that, except I combined Indiana and Illinois since Chicago is really home territory for the Indiana schools. Result:

State Conf Big5 Teams 2012  Pop (est.) Share
Ohio BigTen Ohio State 11,544,225 11,544,225
New Jersey BigTen Rutgers 8,864,590 8,864,590
Florida SEC/ACC Florida, Miami (YTM), FSU 19,317,568 6,439,189
Pennsylvania BigTen Penn St, Pitt 12,763,536 6,381,768
Missouri SEC Mizzou 6,021,988 6,021,988
Maryland BigTen Maryland 5,884,563 5,884,563
Wisconsin BigTen Wisconsin 5,726,398 5,726,398
Minnesota BigTen Minnesota 5,379,139 5,379,139
Texas SEC/B12 Texas, A&M, TT, TCU, Baylor 26,059,203 5,211,841
Georgia SEC/ACC Georgia, GTech 9,919,945 4,959,973
Michigan BigTen Michigan, Michigan St 9,883,360 4,941,680
Louisiana SEC LSU 4,601,893 4,601,893
Illinois & Indiana B1G/Ind ND, NW, Ill, Pur, Indiana 19,412,589 3,882,518
Tennessee SEC Tennessee, Vandy 6,456,243 3,228,122
Arkansas SEC Arkansas 2,949,131 2,949,131
Alabama SEC Bama, Auburn 4,822,023 2,411,012
South Carolina SEC/ACC S.C., Clemson 4,723,723 2,361,862
Kentucky SEC/ACC Kentucky, Louisville 4,380,415 2,190,208
Nebraska BigTen Nebraska 1,855,525 1,855,525
Iowa B1G/B12 Iowa, Iowa St 3,074,186 1,537,093
Mississippi SEC Ole Miss, Miss State 2,984,926 1,492,463

The demographic shifts matter but not as much as people seem to think: the part of the population that will disproportionately devote their lives to football isn't the part that recently moved to Atlanta or Nashville to work for an insurance company or relocated to Florida because the weather's easier on their joints. Mississippi can support more and better football programs than New Jersey can because life in Mississippi is more likely to suck so hard that people are willing to do anything to their bodies to get those bodies out of there. Not so much for recent Jersey/St. Louis/Philly transplants, but Ohio State's position in Ohio is a major advantage indeed.

tateforciermsuscrambleThis is bound to change now. LSAClassof2000 looked at red zone offense in the Big Ten since 2008: Michigan is second to last in overall success rate to the Hoosiers until you add Maryland and Rutgers, both worse. Less than a quarter of Michigan's red zone trips ended with a passing touchdown in that time. Our 2009 (converting just 2/3rds of possible points) matches Indiana's 2008 for most brutal ever. However this has improved dramatically every year since, and the 2012 team was really good at converting red zone trips into points (5.28 per drive), though getting there (3.54 times per game, about 40th percentile among data points) was a problem. In the comments I resorted the data to see where Michigan's teams fell. Wisconsin had the top three red zone teams. Michigan's 2012 was 12th out of 70. Suggestion for further study: I bet you this correlates to experience of the starting quarterback.

Etc. The Big Ten meets the Big Lebowski—I didn't find the comparisons all that close. K.o.k.Law is reminiscing about going to the basketball championship game. Moderator JustinGoBlue is MGoProfiled by M-Wolverine. Solar team's new car and discussion of semiconductor theory.

[Jump: Best of the Board, Zen]

Dear Diary and the Life of Pirate Al Borges

Dear Diary and the Life of Pirate Al Borges

Submitted by Seth on June 21st, 2013 at 10:42 AM

Fuller - Borges2

Bryan Fuller

If you've missed the bumping, Ron Utah has been following Borges's coaching history up and down the Pacific coast, and through about 14,000 plays called. Time to play catch-up:

Part I: A young Albison Issaquary Pirate Borges (that isn't his name) began coaching at Salinas High School as a 19-year-old assistant. He spent a year as an assistant at Cal, then went was a tight ends/receivers coach at Diablo Valley College. Then he was OC there, then at Portland State, then was at Boise State when they were making their transition up to Division I-AA. Then it was Oregon and UCLA.

Part II: Borges's ship is attacked and he is forced to join his hometown Cal Bears for the awful pre-Tedford times. After the mistake of joining the Indiana of the Pac Ten, Borges was ready to join the Indiana of the Big Ten, which was entering its DiNardo phase. Side note: Brian is going to be on a panel with DiNardo at a Chicago alumni event in July, the week of the Big Ten meetings. Raise of hands (or hooks) for those who think Brian will start asking DiNardo about Borges, and Gerry will be like "who is this guy?" Anyway then Borges went to Auburn and that's in there too.

Part III: After getting blamed for Auburn's awful 2007 offense under Tuberville, Borges took a year off then got a call from this guy who was taking over at San Diego State.

Part IV: Finally to the data, with career run-pass numbers and his far more efficient passing offense. We also go through his quarterbacks, and a lot of receivers with gaudy YPC numbers (evidence he likes the bomb) and running backs who mostly regressed. Ron also mentions Borges isn't really a recruiter. In the comments he mentions Borges's success on opening drives. Part V?

Diarist of the week assuredly.

Conference of the Crappy QBs.

1 LEAD and large as you can- Upchurch - 8193374455_6e3fdc8fe5_o1 IMG_35453 - Fuller - 8359807586_c3d90b3a39_oUpchurch - 8172718158_62a3847db7_o

Last week we welcomed back one of the great diarists from yesteryear, MCalibur. Fed up with passer rating, which as a standalone statistic can't differentiate between Chad Henne and Tommy Rees (see end of the diary) the diarist who is not a sword turned completion %, yards per attempt, touchdown % and interception % into passer ratings, and then used standard year-to-year improvement to project How Gardner should fare this season. He followed up this week by going through all the Big Ten's quarterbacks, and then the rest of the guys on the schedule this year. Here is his data on 11 quarterbacks assembled into a table (rank among the 11 is in parentheses).

Rk Player School Comp% YPA TD% INT% AVG
1 Devin Gardner Mich 132.8 (6th) 176.3 (1st) 177 (1st) 98.3 (9th) 146.1
2 Joel Stave Wis 129.8 (7th) 168.6 (2nd) 125.9 (6th) 152.4 (3rd) 144.2
3 Braxton Miller OSU 127.3 (8th) 144.5 (3rd) 137.8 (3rd) 158.4 (2nd) 142.0
4 Taylor Martinez Neb 143.5 (3rd) 140.1 (4th) 142.6 (2nd) 124.8 (7th) 137.8
5 Kain Colter NW 169.1 (1st) 102.5 (8th) 130.4 (4th) 146.3 (4th) 137.1
6 Tommy Rees ND 158.9 (2nd) 124.4 (6th) 123.4 (7th) 119.3 (8th) 131.5
7 Cameron Coffman Ind 138 (4th) 119.2 (7th) 107.1 (8th) 145.7 (5th) 127.5
8 Andrew Maxwell MSU 101.9 (10th) 102.3 (9th) 96.4 (9th) 171.3 (1st) 118.0
9 Chandler Whitmer UConn 124.5 (9th) 132 (5th) 90.6 (10th) 94.3 (10th) 110.4
10 N. Scheelhasse Ill 137.4 (5th) 96.3 (11th) 78.6 (11th) 125.1 (6th) 109.4
11 Philip Nelson Minn 88.2 (11th) 100.4 (10th) 128.9 (5th) 81.9 (11th) 99.9

Kudos to LSAClassof2000 for algebraically finding the individual-year APRs for the rest of the conference. Since we have rivals who aren't so good at algebra here's a table of their constituent scores versus ours over the BLedPRoCIAAga_81last eight years:

Year Michigan vs MSU vs OSU
2005 941 +35 -22
2006 978 +33 +47
2007 924 -12 -58
2008 945 +8 -51
2009 897 -49 -94
2010 946 +13 -25
2011 984 +28 -10
2012 981 -1 +11

To Sparty trolls: our oldest constituent score is a major outlier. Let's high-five for being just about even this year in a metric that measures attendance and retention.

To Urban Meyer: It's true that Ohio State was trouncing Michigan since getting trounced itself in 2006…until you arrived.

LSA was also the subject of Six Zero's latest MGoProfile feature, where he explains why he's the only guy here with an adorable pony avatar other those being punished by the mods for avatar infractions. 100% percent agree on the power to delete or edit one's own posts.

Etc. And Michigan's massive endowment isn't so big when you consider other academic factors (like that we have twice as many students as comparable schools).

Best of the Boards

BEST OF THE LOOT

The thread of Michigan swag owned by the readers got huge, and makes me feel pretty crappy about my collection, which is really just a folder full of my old Michigan tickets and old copies of the Daily. Here's MgoBlueD's basement:

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And here's the guest room that Wolverine Devotee keeps for when the Buckeye relatives come to town (I'm guessing):

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One guy named Stonecoldwolv said his '97 national championship ring.

There was also a "what's your favorite joke?" thread which is long and excellent if you're short on material, and a fan license plate thread.

BIG TEN WATER WAR

You know how Alabama installed a water fountain in their locker room? And how EDSBS suggested what other schools should do? Well 1484 covered the Big Ten. Northwestern's gonna be pretty pissed when they realize Mark Huyge's on our side.

ETC. Pipelines discussion is useful—would love to see a diary on M pipelines through the years and what happened to them. Avant's Hands discusses blowout decorum in anticipation of Spain versus 11 athletic-looking tourists Tahiti kidnapped from a cruise ship that was going by. UM Solar Car Team written up on FoxNews. Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne want to play you on Call of Duty. I'm too old for that, but anyone from Team 120 wanna play Goldeneye?

Your Moment of Zen:

The recruits are grateful for the warning.

Dear Diary, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and LOVE the BOMB

Dear Diary, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and LOVE the BOMB

Submitted by Seth on June 14th, 2013 at 10:02 AM

Borgeslovesthebomb1

Where on the internet can someone say…

Aren’t we here to have fun? Isn’t it more fun to invest internet cache in a prophecy and see if you’re right? It's a simple social contract: pick a side and to the victors go the spoils while the losers eat crow.

..and then uses their self-granted rhetorical leeway to make completely data-driven conclusions? In the MGoDiaries, this happens. MCalibur made his glorious return to the diaries to back up his man Ron Utah. Together they make some interesting studies for prognosticating Devin Gardner this year and beyond.

M's method is to look at things like completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown % and interception % on a scale of passer ratings. So like if you take Denard his passer rating was 149, but for a 149 kinda guy he had standard accuracy, an extra half a yard per play, a slightly lower TD% and had way more interceptions.

So now apply that to Devin's five games last year and you get a yards and TD machine who gets his one WTF interception per game down to 0.8 WTF interceptions per game. You know, like a 5-star entering his redshirt junior season.

Also love this line:

sometimes when you suck, you really really suck and your foes all go hyuk ‘cause they hate you

And the Ron Utah thing MCalibur brought up? What that does is look at Borges's last QB at SDSU to extrapolate Gardner's five-game stats into a more throweriffic offense. He winds up with 3600 yards, 33 TDs and 15 INTs on just 28 attempts per game. That's…well that sounds crazy. That's more yards than Navarre or Henne ever threw. That's at least one interception per game. That's a lot of passes over 20 yards. That's…

Borgeslovesthebomb2

…a pretty good lead-in to Ron Utah's other diary this week, titled Who is Al Borges Part I? Now that we're transitioning to the Full Borges offense Ron is taking us on a tour of Borgesian offenses past. Round 1 goes through early UCLA. Of note: his run-pass ratio varied between 42% run and 61% run, but he never had less than 60% of his yards come from passing. That's a mark of the run setting up the other. Ron is your diarist of the week.

Talk to the Hand. Brian's linked to it in like four recruiting posts already but if you care about Da'Shawn Hand or anything you should read this first-hand account from a guy who went with Hand on his OSU trip (for The Game) and on his ensuing Michigan trip. Canzior had trouble posting his photos from Dropbox so I've uploaded them here; click on the pics to get a full-size version:

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Tvt4lc3RcHZBq3i-Nlk2GdXm6dB3OSGCPaUs-deTcOoT1Q6TPU7q71RZDsoIdQ0ydCzFYY3FSf4XKYJOH_l9ao,kmGbsmNo1H9M4ltI-eL4bSxvUiylBhCLJcNrkVar7RYV4D0ufR8oFHcf4pUNEzeLm5p82DbMq0cI4WyzrKGCSI

Items of interest:

  • Hand is a great kid
  • Urban was approached by Brandon for the Michigan job in 2011 but it got no further than interest gauged (this we kinda figured)
  • Hand was turned off by the OSU players, not so much the coaches. Not in a "they're dicks" sort of way, but didn't click with them.
  • Hand drove home from that visit with The Victors on repeat in the car.
  • Mattison used the Ray Lewis pitch.
  • Mattison knows Rihanna songs.
  • Michigan's recruiting presentation is very geared toward academics
    [After the jump: another Michigan-Band of Brothers connection, and the Best of the Board]