Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Ohio State, Big Ten Tournament

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Ohio State, Big Ten Tournament

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 13th, 2018 at 2:01 PM

24794236258_c4c8eb9a2e_z

[JD Scott]

Saturday, March 10, 2018

#6 Ohio State 3, #11 Michigan 2 (OT)

1st period

Myer goal

OSU 1 UM 0 PPG 16:02 Assists: Miller & Joshua

One theoretical advantage to Michigan’s propensity for crowding below the top of the faceoff circle on the penalty kill is an increased likelihood of blocked shots, and that’s what happens here. Miller gets his shot stopped but the puck pops up and back to him. He gloves it, drops it, and retreats to the blue line. He has Myer open in the opposite corner and swings it to him.

m osu btt 1-1

Myer starts skating toward the faceoff dot and Winborg, who’s stationed between the two faceoff circles, responds by getting his stick out and taking away the passing lane to the skater cutting through the slot to the front of the net. That leaves Luke Martin to step up on Myer—mostly, at least. He doesn’t want to come all the way to wall and get walked or have Myer fire a pass behind him to an open skater down low, so he tries to split the difference and take away the pass while being in position to block the shot. Problem is he’s a hair too far to Myer’s right. Martin tries to block it by dropping to a knee and pushing to his right once he sees that Myer is really going to take the shot, but the puck gets through.

m osu btt 1-2

Lavigne can see the shot the whole way, so it’s bad in the sense that he probably should have been able to track this better. On the other hand, it’s a puck that’s on Lavigne in an instant and Joshua is right next to him; as David pointed out when I asked him about this one, Lavigne was probably expecting it to be deflected off of Joshua, who somehow turned and leapt out of the way.

m osu btt 1-3

[After THE JUMP: Cooper Mar-whoa-dy (I’m sorry I’ll see myself out)]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 7th, 2018 at 10:41 AM

40616529561_137fa6571a_z

[Bill Rapai]

Friday, March 2, 2018

#3 Michigan 6, #6 Wisconsin 5

[Note: numbers refer to BTT seeding]

1st period

CALDERONE GOAL

UM 1 UW 0 EV 1:40 Assists: Marody & Cecconi

Cecconi puts some mustard on a backhanded clearing attempt and gets the puck out of Michigan’s defensive zone.

mich wisc btt fri 1-1

The puck stays more or less on the wall and looks like it’s about to be stopped by Tischke’s skates.

mich wisc btt fri 1-2

until it somehow gets through. You can see Marody locked onto the puck in the screencap above, and he’s in perfect position to pick it up and go once it gets past the UW skater. To Tischke’s credit, he makes the right move once the split second he realizes the puck is past him. He turns and moves to get into a position where he can take away Marody’s passing lane to his right.

mich wisc btt fri 1-3

That doesn’t mean Tischke’s actually able to take away said lane, though. Marody gets the pass through to Calderone, who’s perfectly aligned. This is extra dangerous for Wisconsin because Calderone is a right-handed shot, so he’s going to get the puck on his on hand.

mich wisc btt fri 1-4

It’s also extra dangerous because there aren’t many skaters at this level who can lift a puck from in tight like Calderone. This isn’t the closest to the net that I’ve seen him go top shelf this season, but it’s still impressive because he does it at full speed while allowing the puck to slide past the midpoint of his body to where he wants to shoot, slightly outside his frame to his right.

mich wisc btt fri 1-5

[Analysis of the other 743 goals after THE JUMP]

Michigan Hockey Rooting Guide: Week 22

Michigan Hockey Rooting Guide: Week 22

Submitted by NastyIsland on February 23rd, 2018 at 10:00 AM

ASUPresser

Breaking News: Herm Edwards is also Arizona State’s hockey coach* [AZCentral.com]

*He isn't, but does he know that?

Arizona State Preview

 

PWR

Corsi

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 PPG

GAA

Save%

Michigan

11th

17th

15%

77%

7

2: Marody, Calderone

2.61 (Lavigne)

.912 (Lavigne)

Arizona State

55th

56th

12%

82%

0

1: Pasichnuk (.75)

3.44 (Daccord)

.910 (Daccord)

Things Michigan Should Try to Do Against Arizona State:

1.Fix the PP. Michigan's power play is a paltry 46th in the country. At some point, the Wolverines are going to face a team that limits their chances (a la OSU), and they're going to need to get man-advantage goals. This is the perfect time to work on it. The Sun Devils average 16+ minutes/game in the penalty box. They have an average kill rate. Michigan should have some power-play opportunities this weekend. They may want to try a few new wrinkles.

2. Be More Aggressive on the PK. So, also stay out of the box, but if you must take penalties, maybe use these chances to be more active in pressing the puck. Michigan has been dreadful on the penalty kill all season, and ASU has an anemic power play at 12%. Use this time to practice killing penalties instead of just surviving them.

3. Bury this team. This is not a good hockey team. Look at almost any statistic or metric and they're middling at best, bottom-end at worst. ASU's top scorer is a defenseman. They have two road wins (over Holy Cross and...Michigan Tech?). They've also been bombed by Penn State, Boston University, and Providence. Michigan has done the hard work (sweeping ND) and clawed back to an at-large bid. They need to finish off this run and set up a Big Ten Tournament where they're playing for a seed line instead of barely qualifying.

Last Thoughts. I'm excited to see ASU. They're a new team to D1 college hockey, and this is their first trip to Yost. Part of the fun of college sports is seeing a bunch of different teams in non-conference play. I'd never seen Vermont before they came to Yost this past Fall.  Hopefully, the Sun Devils can continue to build a program and become a nationally competitive team...after this weekend, of course.

[After THE JUMP: surveying the B1G landscape, who to root for around the country, and...Skip-Bo?]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament Final

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament Final

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 22nd, 2016 at 2:59 PM

Saturday, March 19, 2016

#20 Minnesota 3, #7 Michigan 5

1st period

MOTTE GOAL, MICHIGAN

MINN 0 MICH 1 PPG 09:33 Assists: Connor & Werenski

Werenski moves the puck to Connor as the rest of Michigan's power play works to establish position.

bttf 1-1

Connor holds the puck and the defenders all look like they're infested with lice, moving and twitching and adjusting and readjusting while Connor just holds and holds and holds a little longer. The defenders, especially the one nearest Connor in the faceoff circle, seem very worried about the cross-ice one timer to the opposite wing.

bttf 1-2

That works to Michigan's advantage, as everybody just forgot about Motte in front of the net. Connor passes and Motte spins in a circle and shoots. Schierhorn stops the first shot, but Motte flips his own rebound into the top corner; he regularly puts the puck top shelf from angles that seem like it should be impossible to lift the puck.

bttf 1-3

2nd period

COMPHER GOAL, MICHIGAN

MINN 0 MICH 2 PPG 01:31 Assists: Werenski & Connor

Werenski's pass for Connor hops over his stick and goes to the corner, but the puck's eventually reversed back to Werenski. He sees how bunched up and shifted the defense is and how open Compher is on the other side of the ice and makes the easy pass.

bttf 2-1

When Compher receives the pass he has a wide open half of the net, but he can't settle it and doesn't regain control until where he is in the screen shot below. He throws a backhander on net that Schierhorn stops.

bttf 2-2

Compher manages to stop quickly and chop at the puck, which is sitting in front of Schierhorn's pad. One of Compher's hacks lifts the puck up enough to get over his pad.

bttf 2-3

[After THE JUMP: a comeback, an undressing, a tournament championship]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 21st, 2016 at 5:02 PM

Friday, March 18, 2016

#7 Michigan 7, #19 Penn State 2

1st period

SHUART GOAL, MICHIGAN

UM 1 PSU 0 EV 10:35 Assists: Downing & Dancs

Dancs knocks the puck away from a Penn State player trying to clear and then bobbles it as he heads toward the corner; he’s only facing the blue line because he whiffed on the puck a second before. He sees Downing at the point, though, and passes before getting hit.

btts 1-1

Downing steps up and snaps a shot on net that Glen tries to pick off, but the puck goes hits his stick and then hits McAdam, who pushes the rebound aside.

btts 1-2

Shuart tries to push the puck under McAdam, but he makes the save. The rebound stays right in front of the net, and Shuart has a second-chance opportunity with a defenseman and the goaltender falling down.

btts 1-3

Shuart gets flips the puck over two fallen PSU players unimpeded. I’m a little surprised that Glen didn’t make any effort to get across and try to engage Shuart. A tenuous argument can be made that he was trying to cut off the path from the backside and make sure no one could cut directly to the front of the net in case there was a rebound, but I’d think he would slide across when it was clear that both his help was falling over and the puck was loose in front.

btts 1-4

[After THE JUMP: Kyle Connor gif after Kyle Connor gif after Kyle Connor gif. That’s not an exaggeration, he had a natural hat trick.]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 24th, 2015 at 9:05 AM

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[Paul Sherman]

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Michigan 5, Wisconsin 1

1st period

Michigan 1 Wisconsin 0 PPG 14:45 Hyman (20) from Larkin (30) and Werenski (16)

The puck rims around the boards off of an errant shot and is picked up by Boo Nieves. He passes to Zach Werenski at the point, who holds it just long enough to get the high defender moving before passing to Dylan Larkin on the wing.

btt wis 1-1

Larkin somehow sneaks a shot underneath a charging defender. Zach Hyman is doing an excellent job screening in front, safely tucked underneath the defense and in front of Joel Rumpel. Larkin’s shot is deflects off of Hyman’s stick and under Rumpel’s pads.

btt wis 1-2

The puck hits the bar in the back of the net and bounces out. Hyman slides to his right and backhands it in for good measure; after all, it’d be hard to disallow a goal on review if it goes in twice. Unless the ref meant to blow the whistle. I rescind my earlier comment.

btt wis 1-3

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the tournament]

Dear Diary is Like a Kind of Torture

Dear Diary is Like a Kind of Torture

Submitted by Seth on March 14th, 2014 at 10:46 AM

Image0053

Start March.

Bah di-dah di-dah, bah di-dah di-dah, bah di-dah di-dah dah!

Bah di-dah di-dah, bah di-dah di-dah, dah-dah dah-dah-dah-dah [sax]

--------------

muppets-cast-240-bvhepub:It's time to play the music. It's time to light the lights. It's time to get things started on the Muppet Show tonight!

--------------

Michiganman14: It's time to unleash Stauskas.

B-Nut-GoBlue: It's time to seed B1G right.

muppets-cast-240-bvhepub:It's time for photoshopping and Tom Crean memes tonight!

--------------

LSAClassof2000: How did we ever come here? I guess we hit hit field goals!

Jonvalk: Imagine life with Horford, if Morgan chose to go?


muppet-animal

: [buh-dum dum dum-dee-dum-dee-dum dum dum]

--------------

Bah di-dah di-dah, bah di-dah di-dah, bah di-dah di-dah dah!

L'Carpetron Dookmariot: It's time lacrosse got started.

MGoBlueline: When will hockey get started?

muppets-cast-240-bvhepub

:It's time to get things started on the most sensational, invitational,  eliminational, kenpomational…this is what we call the Muppet Show!

hqdefault

[Jump: a board full of grouchy old hecklers]

muppets-kermit: Yaaayyyyyyy!

Hoops Opponent Watch: Waiting Edition

Hoops Opponent Watch: Waiting Edition

Submitted by BiSB on March 13th, 2014 at 10:23 AM

Non-Conference Schedule

GeorgesGordonparker

RPI Effect Only Teams

UMass-Lowell lost to… aw, screw it. GRIII things.

 

Big Sorts of Teams

Iowa State (23-7, 11-7 Big 12)

This week: Beat Oklahoma State (85-81 OT)

Based on a the interweb mock brackets, there’s a fair-to-moderate chance that Michigan might get another shot at Iowa State, this time outside the friendly magical confines of the Hilton Arena Convention Center thingy. The Committee generally dislikes rematches, but right now Michigan is a high 2-seed and Iowa State is a low 3 seed, so it could happen.

If they DO end up as a 3-seed, they can thank Oklahoma State’s failure to come over to #TeamFoul. OSU was up 3 when they missed a free throw with five seconds left. So, instead of fouling, they gave a 39% three-point shooter (Naz Long) an open look. He promptly tied the game. If you were curious, Long is a 62.5% free throw shooter.  FOUL, MAN. FOUL

Florida State (18-12, 9-9 ACC)

This week: Lost to Syracuse (74-58)

Buh-bye.

#7 Dook (24-7, 13-5 ACC)

This week: Beat North Carolina (93-81)

Like Iowa State, Duke is another possible Sweet 16 matchup for Michigan (they’re currently projected at around a 3 seed). Like Iowa State, a hypothetical rematch would be on neutral turf instead of a very hostile road venue. Unlike Iowa State, please don’t make us play these bastards again.

#4 Arizona (28-3, 15-3 PAC 12)

This week: Lost at Oregon (64-57)

Yeah, they lost to Oregon, but unless they lose their quarterfinal matchup to Utah, they’re a lock for a 1-seed. KenPom has them as 7 point favorites to get there, though Utah did play them close twice (including an OT game in February). And even if they lose that game they’re probably STILL a 1-seed.

Stanford (19-11, 10-8 PAC 12)

This week: Beat Utah (61-60)

They’re probably in. But I’m more concerned about KenPom’s description of their defense:

Stanford

“Coach, can you explain your defensive philosophy in the second half?”

“Well, we didn’t think we were very effective in man-to-man, so we went with what we call our ‘shiny object’ set, which is sort of a hybrid man/zone concept where everyone just kinda guards the person near them until they see someone else open and then they guard that person for a while. Or if they get bored or want to be on the other side of the court for a while, they can do that too. The closest traditional comparison would be a triangle and one with a single-high safety.”

[Jump]

Mailbag: Big Ten Tourney Tiredness, Athlete Twitter, NBA Draft Changes, Doge

Mailbag: Big Ten Tourney Tiredness, Athlete Twitter, NBA Draft Changes, Doge

Submitted by Brian on March 12th, 2014 at 12:28 PM

About the Big Ten Tournament making you tired.

Got into a discussion with a friend over the importance of the B1G tournament, he thought it was a useful "spring board", I did not.  Did some gopher work on the results that might be interesting to you. 

4 – Exceeds expectations, only 2009 Purdue wasn’t a #1 seed.

5 – played to seed

7 – Did not meet expectations.  Although 3 of these are Sweet 16 losses, which aren’t absolutely terrible.

Year Champion B1G Tourney Seed NCAA Tournament Result

1998

Michigan

4

#3, lost in 2nd round.  Later Ed Martin’d

1999

Michigan State

1

#1, Lost in Final Four

2000

Michigan State

2

#1, Won it all

2001

Iowa

6

#7, played to seed

2002

Ohio State

2

#4, lost to #12 Mizzou in second round

2003

Illinois

2

#4, lost to #5 ND

2004

Wisconsin

2

#6, played to seed

2005

Illinois

1

#1, Lost in NCG

2006

Iowa

2

#3, Lost in first round

2007

Ohio State

1

#1, Lost in NCG

2008

Wisconsin

1

#3, Played to seed, but lost to #10 Davidson

2009

Purdue

3

#5, played slightly above seed, lost to #1 Uconn in Sweet 16

Side note, doesn’t it seem like decades ago since Purdue was good at basketball?

2010

Ohio State

1

#2, Lost to Tennessee in Sweet 16.  In a cruel twist of fate, Bruce Pearl gets canned for lying about hosting Aaron Craft at his house

2011

Ohio State

1

#1, lost to Kentucky in Sweet 16, [fart noise].  Is that big white guy from Kentucky still in the NBA?

2012

Michigan State

1

#1, lost Louisville in Sweet 16

2013

Ohio State

2

#2, got Shocked in Elite 8.  All the debates about charges…..

Thanks,

Kent, a.k.a. Baloo_dance

That doesn't look like anything resembling a real effect, especially since only 1998 Michigan, 2002 OSU, and 2006 Iowa  had anything resembling first-weekend surprise exits. OSU and MSU going out in the Sweet 16 after a two-week period in which they played two games can't be chalked up to fatigue unless you're Tom Izzo.

Also worth noting that teams that "play to seed" generally exceed the average tourney wins per seed line:

tourney-wins

So a one seed that reaches the final four is about seven tenths of a win to the good. Big Ten Tourney champs have acquired 38 wins in the tournament since the BTT's inception; based on seedings they were expected to get 36.42. At the very least we can say there's no evidence that winning the Big Ten has any effect on your tournament hopes. Given the seed line graph above and the fact that winning games moves you up lines, it is undoubtedly a net positive.

Resolved: in favor of winning Big Ten Tournament.

On Michigan twitter.

Brian,

In your opinion, is Delonte' Hollowell the most interesting M athlete to ever grace Twitter? I think so, but that's just, like, my opinion, man. At the bare minimum he has to be the greatest all-caps philosopher of all time.

Adam

If Twitter has proven anything it's that plebes are suckers for athletes who tweet in all caps, and I am in their midst.

Most athletes use twitter like high school kids with ten followers—like weird semi-public email, and that puts a damper on things. You can tell whenever a dude breaks up with a girl because he starts making tweets that sound like Gin Blossoms lyrics; a lot of the time you're just getting "hey @other_athlete, what's good". The rest of the time it is "rise and grind #blessed." This is fine and all but not particularly interesting to people other than @other_athlete.

Hollowell, on the other hand, spends large chunks of his time with ALL CAPS EXHORTIONS to be something or do something else that are meant to be twitter. He rises and grinds without informing the world of this fact, and he does not tweet #blessed. He seems perpetually irritated by everything. He is the best.

Other current Wolverines worth following:

  1. Henry Poggi's feed is mostly about the Big Lebowski, which means you may not want to follow it but I do.
  2. Andrew Dakich, obviously.
  3. Jordan Morgan trolls MSU fans, and keeps trolling.
  4. Graham Glasgow takes shots at his brother by deploying Snorlax. Frequently tweets about being sleepy or in bed.
  5. Desmond Morgan sarcastically deploys #blessed.

#mcm == "Man Crush Mondays."

Ondre Pipkins would have been on the list, but he nuked his twitter last year.

On NBA Draft changes.

Brian -

This question is undoubtedly way too soon. I normally don't like to engage in the "who are we losing" questions while still able to enjoy the product on the floor. However, I was reading about potential NBA draft changes and Adam Silver's emphasis on extending the age-limit prohibiting players from entering the NBA until they are done with their sophomore year.

Several articles mentioned NBA front-offices fearing a insanely weak 2015 draft if any changes were implemented. What do you think this potential, if any, has on a player like Nik Stauskas when evaluating an NBA departure?

Justin

No. Stauskas is projected in the top 15 of this loaded draft and there's hardly any difference between going 15th and 5th. That would not impact his decision.

However, it might impact McGary and Robinson. They would go from guys who might play themselves into the first round next year into holy first round locks. That would shift the equation significantly enough that it would suddenly be a very bad idea to enter.

However, despite the immediate salutary benefits for Michigan that is a step in the wrong direction. The right direction is draft and follow: everyone's eligible before their freshman year, five round draft, anyone who gets signed occupies a roster spot for remaining NCAA eligibility + 1 years no matter where they are.

SO WOW

after a loss michigan is 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 24 points.  thats insane, no?

Robert

YES

MUCH ZING

Be sure to note that Michigan notched its 7th road win of the season yesterday. Folks sometime forget how tough it is to win on the road in the B1G; how tough it is to win in East Lansing, or in Madison, or in Columbus -- much less in all three places in the same friggin' year. It's really an eye-popping achievement, and a testament to the job Coach B has done of getting them ready to compete in very hostile environments.

Cheers.

Doug

HOW WOW

Death From Above: Wisconsin Part 2

Death From Above: Wisconsin Part 2

Submitted by Brian on March 15th, 2013 at 1:30 PM

READ_Bo_big[1]THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan vs Wisconsin
WHERE United Center
Chicago, Illinois
WHEN 2:30 PM Eastern
LINE Michigan –1
TV ESPN

OR DIE

THE THEM

Ah, Wisconsin. Tempo-clubbing, basketball-imploding, infuriating-non-call-generating, desperation-three-point-chuck-heaving, Kenpom-enthralling Wisconsin. How your presence enfouls all that is good about Big Ten basketball this year. Chernobyl: the basketball team. And so forth.

The Badgers' calling card is defense, and how, but we'll discuss their abilities in that department in the Tempo Free section. On offense, they've got one of the most bizarre breakdowns I've seen in many years of clicking refresh on Kenpom. Senior power forward Ryan Evans is Wisconsin's highest-usage and lowest-efficiency player. As statistical anomalies go, that's pretty amazing. Evans absorbs 26% of Wisconsin shots despite shooting 42% from the floor; he also shoots 42% from the line. He gets to the line rather frequently, but since that's to Wisconsin's detriment it's not a particularly good representation of his game, which is midrange jumper after midrange jumper. He is an excellent rebounder and, like almost everyone on Wisconsin, turns the ball over rarely.

Three players provide what offensive firepower the Badgers have, most prominently center Jared Berggren. Berggren is yet another 6'10" upperclassman who has three-point range and can beast you on the inside. Berggren is more beast and less sniper than, say, John Leuer; they all come from the same mold. Berggren rebounds at both ends, blocks shots without fouling, and has an incredibly low TORate for a guy his size. The main flaw in his game is 25% shooting on 75 threes. He's terribly underrated.

You probably know Ben Brust, a perimeter-oriented shooting guard hitting 40% from three. He is much less effective inside the line (48%; very rare trips to the line), and Michigan should close him out ferociously.

The third offensive cogs doesn't even start: freshman Sam Dekker. He's getting barely over half of Wisconsin's minutes despite shooting 55%/43% on quality usage. He's not the rebounder Evans is and isn't the defender; he's a much, much better offensive option.

Point guard Traevon Jackson is a high-turnover player who shoots 41%/30%. Michigan might well encourage him to shoot; Mike Bruesewitz tells you all you need to know about him with his last name. He's there to D up, rebound, and put up a small number of high quality looks. Like Berggren, he takes threes when they present themselves despite hitting well under 30%.

THE RESUME

Wisconsin had a weird finish to their season after that prayer by Brust. They lost in OT at Minnesota the next night, had consecutive whompings of Ohio State(!), Northwestern, and Nebraska, and then finished the year on a depressing slide. They lost to Purdue by 13 at home and at Michigan State by 15 in a game in which they put up a measly 43.

They finished the year with another desperation three, this one at Penn State. While Michigan had their own, worse struggles at Penn State, that ain't good. The Badgers finished the Big Ten season with the same 12-6 record Michigan did and won the tiebreaker for the fourth spot thanks to the Brust prayer and Michigan's lack of a return game.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors, now conference-only (small sample, yes, but numbers are equally skewed by various cupcakes on the non-conference schedule):

eFG% Turnover % Off. Reb. % FTA/FGA
Offense 46.9 (6) 16.2 (3) 30.3 (8) 29.5 (10)
Defense 42.2 (1) 15.4 (11) 27.0 (1) 23.5 (1)

The Badgers are a funhouse mirror version of Michigan. Both teams take care of the ball, force very few turnovers, never get to the line, and never put their opponents on the line.

The distortions come in defensive rebounding—Wisconsin is great and Michigan progressively worse—and eFG% at both ends of the floor. On offense Michigan is great, with Wisconsin scraping out a middling existence. On defense Wisconsin is great, with Michigan scraping out a less-than-middling existence.

THE PROTIPS

Run two guys off the line only. Preventing three pointers is a skill that Wisconsin has and Michigan should try to emulate. Dekker and Brust should be closed down with extreme predjudice; everyone else you can chill on save backup PG George Marshall.

Get handsy on D. If you're putting Wisconsin on the line that's only a slight downgrade in expectation, one that should be offset by an increased ability to get those stop things. Obviously, Evans is the main issue for the Badgers here.

For pants sake don't hedge the pick and roll hard. Look man, if Traevon Jackson wants to pull up, let him pull up. Don't unbalance your defense and invite Jared Berggren to beast on Trey Burke. Just go under the damn screen. This will not happen.

Brust P&R is another matter, but even then Michigan has to stop pointlessly getting its big well outside the three-point line, whereupon disaster occurs.

Make your midrange jumpers. Wisconsin's defense is so good because they get away with subtle murder. Refs don't want the bad man to yell at them. But also they cut off good shots. Hoop Math shows that nearly half of shots Wisconsin faces are two point jumpers, AKA The Devil's shot. Points per shot on the three categories:

  • RIM: 1.1
  • TWOS: 0.7
  • THREES: 0.9

Michigan got off more threes than Wisconsin usually allows in the first game. They hit only five of 18.

I don't have much hope that Michigan is going to break Wisconsin tendencies here, so the answer is Hardaway and Burke making their pull-ups. Pull-ups suck, but you can't get a blocking call on Wisconsin to save your life and Burke's floater is deadly. In the last game, Wisconsin continually sagged off Burke on the pick and roll; Burke hit 6 of 13 twos. That was almost good enough.

This is a terrible matchup for Stauskas, who may be Not Just A Shooter™ but has very little midrange game. In the first game he had five points on seven shots.

McGary: fight Berggren to a standstill on the boards. Self explanatory.

Do something, GRIII. Ditto.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.