Hoops Preview: Ohio State

Hoops Preview: Ohio State Comment Count

Brian February 4th, 2017 at 1:57 PM

jaquan-lyle-6722a6e5bb8c51ecTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (14-8, 4-5 B1G) vs
OSU (13-10, 3-7)
WHERE Crisler Arena
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 6 PM
LINE Michigan –8 (KenPom)
TV ESPN
 
Right: JaQuan Lyle and his old man beard

THE US

Coming off a disappointingly typical loss at Michigan State against a very much untypical MSU team, Michigan now faces a must-win against reeling Ohio State. Per Kenpom this is Michigan's most likely win left on the schedule, a 75% shot. (At Rutgers is only 69% despite Rutgers being almost 100 slots worse in overall ranking, if you want a stark indicator of how much home and away swing affect college basketball.)

It would be nice if Zak Irvin had a bounce back.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 3 Kam Williams Jr. 6'2, 185 77 16 104 No
PG-sized but tiny assist/FTs rates and low TO rate mark him as Just A Shooter. Do not send to line, not that he'll force the issue there much.
G 4 JaQuan Lyle So. 6'5, 210 78 23 107 No
Main creator has #56 assist rate in country, but TOs limit efficiency. Still the #1 guy Michigan has to check.
F 14 Jae'Sean Tate Jr. 6'4, 230 79 33 108 Very
Junkyard dog has seen rebound numbers drop thanks to teammate Thompson; highly efficient at the rim, no game elsewhere.
F 0 Marc Loving Sr. 6'8, 220 83 20 100 No
Never quite put it together. Good outside shooter; rest of his game is weak, with a bunch of TOs and iffy efficiency.
C 35 Trevor Thompson Jr. 7'0, 250 56 23 115 Very
Rebound machine 40th nationally in OREB rate and 9th in DREB rate, also racks up a ton of blocks. Good FT shooter, too
G 51 CJ Jackson So. 6'1, 175 38 20 97 Yes
Backup PG has similar assist/TO rates as Lyle; weak shooter.
F 25 Micah Potter Fr. 6'9, 240 32 16 101 No
Backup post is all-around worse version of Thompson, but can shoot threes a bit.
F 5 Andre Wesson Fr. 6'6, 220 22 16 83 Yes
Woof.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Michigan State

Hoops Preview: Michigan State Comment Count

Ace January 27th, 2017 at 5:15 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #33 Michigan (14-7, 4-4 B1G) at
#53 Michigan State (12-9, 4-4)
WHERE Breslin Center
East Lansing, Michigan
WHEN 1 pm ET, Sunday
LINE MSU -1 (KenPom)
N/A (Vegas)
TV CBS
PBP: Kevin Harlan
Analyst: Clark Kellogg

Right: Gonna keep rolling with "embarrassing photos of opposing coaches" until that stops working. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

Last night's dismantling of Indiana shot Michigan up ten spots on KenPom. While the Bracket Matrix hadn't been updated at the time this was written, it's safe to say the Wolverines couldn't have done much more in that game to improve their tourney hopes; CBS's Jerry Palm moved M up to an 8-seed in today's update.

Going by KenPom's updated numbers, Michigan's win projection has improved substantially:

KenPom projects Sunday's game as a virtual toss-up, giving Michigan a 45% chance to pull off the road win. With four home games and road matchups with Rutgers and Nebraska left on the schedule, that would put a 10-8 conference record (and 20 regular-season wins) very much in play.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 11 Tum Tum Nairn Jr. 5'10, 175 60 12 109 Kinda
Decent distributor, but wonky shot has only improved slightly. Tiny usage for PG.
G 14 Eron Harris Sr. 6'3, 190 59 24 107 Not At All
Excellent three-point shooter both on spot-ups and off the bounce.
G 1 Josh Langford Fr. 6'5, 210 51 15 109 Not At All
Good spot-up shooter who sticks to perimeter; one FT attempt in B1G play.
F 22 Miles Bridges Fr. 6'7, 230 51 27 100 Not At All
ORtg doesn't do his all-around game justice. As he goes, so goes MSU.
C 44 Nick Ward Fr. 6'8, 250 48 33 105 Very
Massive-usage post scorer. Great rebounder and shot-blocker. Fouls, FTs can be issues.
G 5 Cassius Winston Fr. 6'0, 185 50 24 104 Kinda
Boasts #1 assist rate in the country, but inconsistent shot and too many TOs.
F 25 Kenny Goins So. 6'6, 230 47 12 98 Very
Former walk-on forced to spot Ward at C. Decent finisher but very TO-prone.
G 3 Alvin Ellis Sr. 6'4, 210 39 20 101 No
Decent outside shooter, disruptive defender getting more time lately.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Indiana

Hoops Preview: Indiana Comment Count

Ace January 26th, 2017 at 3:36 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #43 Michigan (13-7, 3-4 B1G) vs
#30 Indiana (14-6, 4-3)
WHERE Crisler Center
Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 9 pm ET, Thursday
LINE Michigan -1 (KenPom)
Michigan -4 (Vegas)
TV ESPN2
PBP: Rece Davis
Analyst: Jim Calhoun

Right: Obligatory. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

This week presents a huge opportunity for Michigan to get back on the right side of the bubble and improve their position for conference tournament seeding. Michigan is currently the second team out of the projected NCAA tournament field on the Bracket Matrix. Indiana and Michigan State (Sunday's opponent) are the two teams directly ahead of the Wolverines in the conference standings. Michigan needs a split, at the very least, if they don't want to put themselves in a very tight spot.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 2 Josh Newkirk Jr. 6'1, 195 62 19 102 No
Most PG-like player, but only has 1.6:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
G 4 Robert Johnson Jr. 6'3, 195 65 22 120 Not At All
Sniper beyond the arc, solid finisher inside of it. 5th in B1G in eFG%.
G 1 James Blackmon Jr. 6'4, 200 71 24 126 Not At All
High-volume, high-efficiency scorer. Defense can be an issue.
F 15 Zach McRoberts So. 6'6, 200 26 7 133 Kinda
OG Anunoby's nearly invisible replacement. 6/17 FG in 211 minutes.
C 31 Thomas Bryant So. 6'10, 255 67 21 118 No
Excellent rebounder and post scorer, good shot-blocker, now hits occasional three.
C 20 De'Ron Davis Fr. 6'10, 240 32 25 119 Very
Solid backup C. 54% on FGs, effectively crashes offensive boards.
G 11 Devonte Green Fr. 6'3, 186 28 18 101 No
Efficient scorer (57/39/75 shooting splits) but very turnover-prone.
G 0 Curtis Jones Fr. 6'4, 175 31 19 112 No
Outside shooting threat, struggling to finish inside arc.
F 13 Juwan Morgan (inj.) So. 6'7, 230 47 16 136 Yes
Great rebounder and finisher this year. Status unclear due to ankle injury.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Illinois, Part 2

Hoops Preview: Illinois, Part 2 Comment Count

Ace January 20th, 2017 at 3:00 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #45 Michigan (12-7, 2-4 B1G) vs
#74 Illinois (12-7, 2-4)
WHERE Crisler Center
Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 2:15 pm ET, Saturday
LINE Michigan -6 (KenPom)
Michigan -7 (Vegas)
TV BTN
PBP: Kevin Kugler
Analyst: Bob Wenzel

Right: DJ Wilson was a bright spot in an otherwise dismal first matchup against Illinois. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]

THE US

Michigan needs seven or eight more conference wins out of their remaining 12 games to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid without making a huge run in the conference tourney. This is one of six games in which they're the outright favorite on KenPom; they must hold court at home.

In his press conference today, John Beilein suggested that some younger guys could get a chance if the team's veterans continue making freshman-like mistakes:

That was in response to Nick's question about Mark Donnal's missed blockouts against Wisconsin, so this may be the #FreeTeske game, and Beilein even mentioned rethinking Austin Davis' redshirt. Xavier Simpson's work on defense has probably earned him a longer look, as well. Ibi Watson has only been on the court for four minutes in conference play, so it doesn't seem like he's close to breaking through, but Beilein mentioned Zak Irvin's habit of driving into bad situations, so perhaps this is his time, too.

THE LAST TIME

It's rarely good when a game leads to a players-only meeting. That was the case after Michigan's 85-69 loss to Illinois, which was a defensive catastrophe. A mediocre Illini offense scored a season-best 1.42 points per possession, shot 64% from both inside and outside the arc, and rebounded eight of their 19 misses. Center Maverick Morgan, who called Michigan a "white-collar" team in the aftermath, made 8-of-9 field goals. Freshman reserve Kipper Nichols had 13 points and five offensive boards; he hasn't had more than four points or one offensive rebound in any of his other five appearances.

Michigan got solid outputs from DJ Wilson (19 points), Derrick Walton (11 points, 7 assists), and MAAR (14 points). Those weren't nearly enough to overcome the teamwide defensive effort and poor performances from Moe Wagner (6 points, 3 turnovers) and Duncan Robinson (2 points, 5 fouls).

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 13 Tracy Abrams Gr. 6'2, 185 64 19 106 No
Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow.
First matchup: 24 mins, 4 pts (1/2 2p, 0/1 3p), 2 reb, 3 ast, 1 to, 1 stl
G 5 Jalen Coleman-Lands So. 6'3, 190 66 17 97 No
Just A Shooter™ is 43% on 3P in B1G play after rough start to season.
First matchup: 31 mins, 12 pts (0/3 2p, 4/5 3p), 3 reb, 4 ast, 2 to
G 21 Malcolm Hill Sr. 6'6, 225 82 26 117 No
High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls.
First matchup: 32 mins, 15 pts (3/5 2p, 1/3 3p, 6/7 ft), 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 to
F 12 Leron Black So. 6'7, 220 44 24 106 Very
Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line.
First matchup: 17 mins, 10 pts (5/9 2p, 0/1 3p), 5 reb (1 off)
C 22 Maverick Morgan Sr. 6'10, 245 56 22 109 Very
Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder.
First matchup: 29 mins, 16 pts (8/9 2p), 1 reb, 4 ast, 3 to, 1 blk, 1 stl
F 2 Kipper Nichols Fr. 6'6, 225 9 17 112 Kinda
Crushed M on boards in first matchup. Averaging 15 mins in last 4 games.
First matchup: 19 mins, 13 pts (5/8 2p, 1/1 3p), 8 reb (5 off)
F 43 Michael Finke So. 6'10, 230 49 17 107 No
Stretch four with career 52/37/64 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder.
First matchup: 12 mins, 10 pts (2/2 2p, 2/2 3p), 3 reb (1 off)
G 3 Te'Jon Lucas Fr. 6'0, 170 23 19 98 Not Really
Pass-first slasher getting larger role lately.
First matchup: 23 mins, 5 pts (1/1 2p, 1/1 3p), 1 reb, 8 ast, 1 to, 1 stl

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Hoops Preview: Wisconsin, Part 1

Hoops Preview: Wisconsin, Part 1 Comment Count

Brian January 17th, 2017 at 4:58 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (12-6, 2-3 B1G) at
Wisconsin (14-3, 3-1)
WHERE Kohl Center
Madison, Wisconsin
WHEN 9 pm ET, Tuesday
LINE Wisconsin -10 (KenPom)
Wisconsin -11 (Vegas)
TV ESPN
PBP: Dave Flemming
Analyst: Dan Dakich

Right: cheese. Cheese never changes.

THE US

Michigan exits the easy bit of their schedule at 2-3 in the Big  Ten and now stares down a gauntlet-like substance. Since this is the worst Big Ten in a while—just two teams in the Kenpom top 25—that gauntlet isn't the death sentence it might have been a few years ago. It's still not good, and Michigan kicks it off with the Big Ten's one elite tempo-free team: eternal, unchangeable Wisconsin.

Good news: Michigan's the best offense in the league and by a bit of distance. Bad news: Michigan is the worst defense in the league by a thousand miles. They are currently on pace to be the worst Big Ten defense in the Kenpom era, which stretches back to 2002.

But you knew that already. You can see with your eyes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 3 Zak Showalter Sr. 6'3, 185 67 14 130 No
Barely shoots, low assist rate, good defender
G 24 Bronson Koenig Sr. 6'3, 190 72 21 122 Not At All
Primary sniper, 40% on 119 3s. Efficient inside arc as well.
F 30 Vitto Brown Sr. 6'8, 235 53 19 107 No
Low usage, high efficiency stretch 4. TO prone.
F 10 Nigel Hayes Sr. 6'8, 240 74 25 115 Not Really
Lead dog shoots a ton of midrange jumpers w/ decent efficiency. Good passer. Gets to the line a lot, converts at only 63%
C 20 Ethan Happ So. 6'10, 232 63 26 120 Very
Efficient, high-usage post scorer, passes well, dismal FT%
G 0 D'Mitrik Trice Fr. 6'0, 178 45 16 123 Not At All
Clone of his brother Travis. Ululating woman on FTs will be his mom.
G 21 Khalil Iverson So. 6'5, 212 40 18 111 Very
Petway-esque jumping-jack swingman will get his on putbacks mostly
F 25 Alex Illakainen So. 6'9, 232 25 11 104 Not Really
Bit player

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Hoops Preview: Nebraska

Hoops Preview: Nebraska Comment Count

Ace January 13th, 2017 at 3:22 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #46 Michigan (11-6, 1-3 B1G) vs
#86 Nebraska (9-7, 3-1)
WHERE Crisler Center
Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 2 pm ET, Saturday
LINE Michigan -8 (KenPom)
Michigan -8 (Bovada)
TV BTN
PBP: Wayne Randazzo
Analyst: Stephen Bardo

Right: Same.

THE US

To nobody's surprise, Michigan is no longer in the field in the Bracket Matrix, and the majority of the brackets that include them haven't been updated since the Illinois debacle.

Tomorrow's matchup with Nebraska looked a whole lot better a couple months ago, prior to M's defensive collapse and the Huskers' unexpectedly stong start in conference play. KenPom has Michigan as an eight-point favorite; their 76% chance to win is the highest projection for any game on the rest of the schedule—yes, even including M's trip to Rutgers. Both sides probably feel the line should be closer than that, even though Nebraska must deal with the loss of their best post player, Ed Morrow. The betting sites have yet to weigh in. [UPDATE: Michigan -8, just like KenPom. The Morrow injury probably played a big factor in that line.]

It's hard to overstate how much Michigan needs to win this game. Heading into the Kohl Center next week at 1-4 in the conference would be a nightmare scenario.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 5 Glynn Watson So. 6'0, 175 80 23 111 Not At All
Excellent three-point and free-throw shooter, not a great finisher. Top-50 in steal rate.
G 0 Tai Webster Sr. 6'4, 195 88 27 106 Not really
Big, aggressive point guard shoots 51/33/72 with high FT rate.  
G 11 Evan Taylor Jr. 6'5, 206 48 14 88 Very
Inefficient, low-usage scorer with high turnover rate. Defensive specialist.
F 15 Isaiah Roby Fr. 6'8, 214 33 18 83 Very
Good shot-blocker, otherwise struggling. One of a few options to replace Morrow.
F 12 Michael Jacobson So. 6'9, 230 63 17 97 Very
Good offensive rebounder, poor finisher. Usually a PF but could play C with Morrow out.
F 10 Jack McVeigh So. 6'8, 215 48 15 96 Kinda
Stretch four type shooting 36% on twos and 30% on threes with little rebounding.
F 2 Jeriah Horne Fr. 6'7, 222 22 19 108 Not really
Just A Shooter™ type is making 10/30 on threes, 9/14 on twos.
C 32 Jordy Tshimanga Fr. 6'11, 275 24 23 83 Very
Big impact on boards, only shooting 34%. Frequently in foul trouble.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Illinois

Hoops Preview: Illinois Comment Count

Ace January 11th, 2017 at 3:28 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #39 Michigan (11-5, 1-2 B1G) at
#71 Illinois (11-5, 1-2 B1G)
WHERE Assembly Hall
Champaign, Illinois
WHEN 9 pm ET, Wednesday
LINE Illinois -1 (KenPom)
Michigan -2 (Bovada)
TV BTN
PBP: Kevin Kugler
Analyst: Seth Davis

Right: Tracy Abrams, who's still playing for Illinois, guarding a sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

As mentioned in yesterday's Basketbullets, Michigan is already edging towards "must-win" territory in games like this if they want to make the tournament.

This may go into the feelingsball realm, but Michigan has to play with a sense of urgency—especially on defense, where M's effort level seems to directly correlate with their success—that will match that of their opponent. Illinois is in virtually the same position; both teams are 1-2 in the Big Ten and among the last four teams to make the Bracket Matrix field. The Illini desperately need this home win. The Wolverines desperately need their first true road win of the season.

Both KenPom (Illinois -1) and Bovada (Michigan -2) have this as a virtual toss-up. While I hate myself for typing this, the team that plays like they want it the most should be the one that maintains their tenuous grasp on a tourney spot for at least another few days.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 13 Tracy Abrams Gr. 6'2, 185 66 20 111 No
Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow.
G 5 Jalen Coleman-Lands So. 6'3, 190 63 17 98 No
Just A Shooter™ beginning to heat up after a rough start to season.
G 21 Malcolm Hill Sr. 6'6, 225 81 27 119 No
High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls.
F 12 Leron Black So. 6'7, 220 44 24 106 Very
Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line.
C 33 Mike Thorne Gr. 6'11, 280 37 20 105 Very
Decent rebounder, good finisher, bad FT shooter, not a rim protector despite size.
F 43 Michael Finke So. 6'10, 230 51 18 101 No
Stretch four with career 52/36/64 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder.
C 22 Maverick Morgan Sr. 6'10, 245 43 20 107 Very
Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder.
G 1 Jaylon Tate Sr. 6'3, 170 50 15 92 Yes
6-for-56 on threes in career, so he'll probably hit four of them tonight.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Maryland

Hoops Preview: Maryland Comment Count

Ace January 6th, 2017 at 3:08 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #31 Michigan (11-4, 1-1 B1G) vs
#62 Maryland (13-2, 1-1)
WHERE Crisler Center
Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 3:15 pm ET, Saturday
LINE Michigan -7 (KenPom)
TV ESPN2
PBP: Jason Benetti
Analyst: Sean Farnham

Right: Melo Trimble once again leads the Maryland attack. [Paul Sherman]

THE US

Dylan dug up an illuminating stat on Zak Irvin after Wednesday night's win over Penn State:

Are mid-range jumpers good shots? The analytically inclined will tell you no, but for Irvin they aren’t bad. According to numbers from Krossover, Irvin makes 47% of his off the dribble mid-range jumpers compared to just 18% of his off the dribble three-point attempts (he makes 42% of his threes off the catch).

As late-clock shots go, Irvin's pet midrange pull-up—especially when he's coming off a screen while going to his right—is a pretty efficient look. That three-point stat, however, is alarming, and it shows why Irvin's shooting from beyond the arc has declined so much from his freshman year: he's not nearly as good creating his own three-point look as he is taking spot-up threes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 0 Anthony Cowan Fr. 6'0, 170 74 21 109 Not really
A shorter Trimble: #1 in country in FT rate, good inside the arc, ok outside shot, turnover-prone.
G 2 Melo Trimble Jr. 6'3, 185 80 28 111 No
Still Melo: huge usage, gets to FT line a ton, a little turnover-prone, shooting up from last year.
G 4 Kevin Huerter Fr. 6'7, 190 67 15 110 No
Takes twice as many threes as twos, makes 38% of them. Disruptive on defense.
F 21 Justin Jackson Fr. 6'7, 225 67 21 104 Not At All
Stretch four making 43% of threes, 46% of twos with high FT rate. Solid on offensive boards.
F 13 Ivan Bender So. 6'9, 230 33 18 106 Very
Making 67% of his FGs and rebounding well; turnovers and foul trouble limiting his minutes.
G 1 Jaylen Brantley Jr. 5'11, 170 41 17 103 Kinda
Just A Shooter™ type only making 40% of twos and 31% of threes. Hit 42% of threes last year.
F 10 LG Gill Sr. 6'8, 230 33 14 90 Yes
11-for-36 from field this year. Decent offensive rebounder not adding much otherwise.
C 35 Damonte Dodd Sr. 6'11, 250 21 21 90 Very
Very impactful rebounder and shot-blocker, but foul-prone and turns it over a ton.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Penn State

Hoops Preview: Penn State Comment Count

Ace January 4th, 2017 at 2:07 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #33 Michigan (10-4, 0-1 B1G) vs
#96 Penn State (9-6, 1-1)
WHERE Crisler Center
Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 8:36 pm ET, Wednesday
LINE Michigan -9 (KenPom)
TV BTN
PBP: Cory Provus
Analyst: Shon Morris

Right: Michigan swept the series with PSU last year, including a 23-point blowout at Crisler. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

While there hasn't been any change to the starting lineup, Duncan Robinson's role continues to expand. Since getting only seven minutes against Marquette and 16 in each of the subsequent two games, Robinson has played 20+ minutes in seven of M's last nine games, including a season-high 36 in the Iowa game. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, meanwhile, played only eight minutes against the Hawkeyes after seeing the floor for at least 20 minutes in every game since the opener. John Beilein may very well continue to use Robinson as a super sub but he's playing the role of a starter again.

Beilein, by the way, has the chance to tally his 200th win at Michigan tonight. He'd be the second M coach to do so, following the legendary Johnny Orr (209).

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 10 Tony Carr Fr. 6'3, 198 79 22 96 No
Fits FR PG profile: TO rate nearly as high as assists, good 3P%, bad 2P%.
G 33 Shep Garner Jr. 6'2, 187 80 21 100 No
Secondary ballhandler and 3-point gunner. 35% on 106(!) 3PA.
G 23 Josh Reaves So. 6'4, 210 44 19 98 Yes
Slasher/defender is 11th nationally in steal rate. Struggling with outside shot.
F 11 Lamar Stevens Fr. 6'7, 218 65 23 108 Very
Only 48% on all two-pointers, but gets to line a lot, makes 88% of FTs.
C 24 Mike Watkins R-Fr. 6'9, 246 58 21 106 Very
Excellent shot-blocker and rebounder. 55% from field, gets to line often.
F 0 Payton Banks Jr. 6'6, 223 64 20 109 Not At All
Even more extreme gunner than Garner: 41% on 102 3PA in fewer minutes.
G 5 Terrence Samuel Jr. 6'3, 208 45 15 102 Kinda
High FT rate is salvaging efficiency; only 43.1 eFG%.
C 44 Julian Moore Jr. 6'10, 235 35 15 75 Very
Shooting 40% from field with a 30% TO rate. Woof.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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Hoops Preview: Iowa

Hoops Preview: Iowa Comment Count

Ace December 31st, 2016 at 2:22 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (10-3, 0-0 B1G) vs
Iowa (8-6, 0-1)
WHERE Carver-Hawkeye Arena
Iowa City, Iowa
WHEN 2:21 pm ET, Sunday
LINE Michigan -2 (KenPom)
TV BTN
PBP: Brian Anderson
Analyst: Jon Crispin

THE US

Michigan is one of only two Big Ten teams (Ohio State) yet to play a conference game. I don't expect any changes to the rotation. Even if John Beilein wants to get Duncan Robinson more playing time than the struggling Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, bringing Robinson off the bench—which allows Beilein to pick his matchup—appears to be his preference.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 3 Jordan Bohannon Fr. 6'0, 182 65 20 97 No
High assists and turnover rates, solid outside shooter, really struggling to finish inside arc.
G 4 Isaiah Moss R-Fr. 6'5, 205 41 19 101 No
Efficient young scorer. Had 7+ points in six straight before Purdue blanked him.
G 14 Peter Jok Sr. 6'6, 205 71 30 117 Not At All
B1G POTY candidate. Massive usage, great shooter, good finisher, draws fouls.
F 0 Ahmad Wagner So. 6'7, 235 44 17 103 Very
Solid offensive rebounder, active defender, draws a lot of fouls.
F 35 Cordell Pemsl Fr. 6'8, 249 46 23 114 Very
Shooting 73% from field with excellent rebounding and shot-blocking numbers.
F 51 Nicholas Baer So. 6'7, 200 53 16 121 No
Good inside-outside scorer. Active rebounder and defender.
F 25 Dom Uhl Jr. 6'9, 217 42 19 89 Yes
Stretch four having a brutal year: 39.5 eFG%, 24.5 TO%.
F 5 Tyler Cook Fr. 6'9, 253 31 25 101 Yes
Promising freshman missed 7 games to injury, returned to go 6/10 against Purdue.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

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