advanced stats

[Barron/MGoBlog]

Bill Connelly used a photo from the Michigan-Rutgers game to head his Week Six Five Factors box scores, and it’s not hard to see why. Scrolling across the stats will lead to either your jaw dropping or some guttural chuckle, or maybe both: Rutgers averaged 0.28 yards per play, had one scoring opportunity (read: had the ball inside Michigan’s 40), got zero points off that opportunity, and had a Success Rate of 11%. Michigan’s offense averaged 8.11 yards per play, had 11 scoring opportunities, averaged 7.00 points per opportunity, and had a Success Rate of 55%. Rutgers had 17 drives to Michigan’s 18. Sometimes things really are as lopsided as the final score indicates.

ESPN’s Football Power Index took note, as Michigan now holds the top overall spot in FPI. ESPN says that FPI “represents how many points above or below average a team is.” Michigan’s 1.8 points better than the next nearest team (Alabama), and they’re 2.5 points better than Ohio State. One dominant game over Rutgers really boosted Michigan’s stock in the eyes of ESPN, as their chance at winning out rocketed from 16.6% to 34.2%, and their chance of winning the conference jumped from 30.8% to 49.5%. ESPN also predicts Michigan will win 11.8 games.

The season outlook wouldn’t be nearly as shiny if the offense wasn’t above average, but it’s no secret that the defense is performing at a level we haven’t seen in quite a while and driving the numbers up. There is literally no section of Connelly’s advanced stats profile where Michigan’s defense isn’t ranked first nationally in some category. The defense is even ranked first in two of Connely’s Five Factors. I decided to take a closer look at passing downs defense this week because it has been exceptional, but at this point the defense is so good that I don’t have to dig through specific categories for something to discuss so much as rotate through them. This week, the visual representation of the defense’s dominance is as sharp as it’s been in the last two seasons; before you read anything below, you can scroll through the graphs and see exactly what I mean.

[After THE JUMP: Connelly’s Five Factors and a closer look at passing downs defense]

He left room for help, but Alex Kile returns as Michigan's lone 30+-point scorer [Rapai/MGoBlog]

I don't think it will get picked as the slogan for the student section t-shirt, but if you plan to refer to the 2016-17 hockey season as "the season of cognitive dissonance," you're not wrong. After watching a team with one of the most potent offenses in the country three of the last four seasons, Michigan loses five of the their top-six wingers and their two most offensively productive defensemen. The cavalry isn't exactly arriving in the form of the freshmen class, as Michigan will add productive lower-line players but no phenom in the Kyle Connor/Dylan Larkin mold.

All, however, is not lost. The aforementioned group of freshmen should be ready to play immediately, and by all accounts the majority of them should provide solid two-way help. Alex Kile appears ready to handle an increased scoring burden, and MIchigan’s deeper and more talented on defense than they’ve been in years; with eight that could justifiably be in the lineup every night, the blueliners should be the backbone of this team.

Red Berenson doesn't have the task in front of him that he thought he would when he decided to come back for one more season. Instead of having to find a winger to complement JT Compher and Tyler Motte's scoring prowess and near-telepathic connection he has to find a brand new top half of the lineup. The entire first power play unit needs to be replaced. Steve Racine, who finally found his groove as a starter in 2015-16 thanks to goaltending coach Steve Shields, is gone. Berenson will need to take the talent he's been given and mold it; he has a bit of head start with the incoming freshmen, as most scouting reports laud their defensive responsibility more than their offensive prowess. There will be games you'll sit down and watch this season and recognize almost nothing aside from the "M" on the front of the sweater. That's fine. If this team can reinvent its identity in an offseason, if it can eschew wide-open play for tighter defensive coverage, then they can contend in the Big Ten.

[After THE JUMP: position group previews, a new stats project, and the season outlook]

[Upchurch/MGoBlog]

Another game, another batch of data lost to garbage time. That’s certainly not a complaint, but it does explain why there wasn’t a ton of movement in the advanced stats. Michigan hit Bill Connelly’s criteria for garbage time with 46 seconds left in the first half, as Karan Higdon’s two-yard touchdown run put Michigan up 28. From there, the lead never shrunk to the point where there was any real threat of exiting garbage time.

The traditional stats paint a picture that matches what we observed: Michigan dominated in almost every area. You can run down the stat sheet and blindly point and likely find a stat Michigan handily won. First downs? Michigan more than doubled Penn State, 25 to 12. Rushing first downs? Michigan had a 14-3 edge. Yards per play? Michigan fell just short of doubling up Penn State with 6.1 to their 3.5. Rushing yards? Michigan’s 326-70 advantage was one of their biggest statistical wins of the day. That stat obviously needs to be contextualized a bit; Michigan still blew Penn State away when looking at average yards per rush, of which Michigan averaged 6.7 to Penn State’s 2.5. That Penn State stayed fairly balanced (28 rushes and 27 passes) and walked away with the aforementioned average yards per rush and 4.5 yards per pass is quite the accomplishment for the defense.

The stats in the preceding paragraph got me thinking about Michigan’s rush defense, and after looking through the numbers it deserves the spotlight this week. The traditional stats help set the table: Michigan has allowed 64 and 70 rushing yards over the last two games. Looking at things a little closer, Michigan has held opponents back in a variety of ways and situations; Bill Connelly’s advanced stats profile reflects that, and some of the non-Bill Connelly total win predictions and win-out percentages seem to have taken notice as well. 

[After THE JUMP: Five Factors, counting the ways Michigan’s rush defense has been exceptional, and looking ahead to Wisconsin]