2019 big ten tournament
1 hour and 13 minutes
The Sponsors:
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1. Michigan's Pod
(starts at 0:58)
The "last two seed" means Michigan doesn't have to play Duke. Montana is without their two bigs from last year. Good at preventing assists on made baskets—we think that means they force you into a lot of iso ball. Nevada was good but played nobody. Seth shares what vomitorium means (got it from the great youtubist CGP Grey). But Nevada's best player, Jordan Caroline, has an Achilles flare, and they just lost to San Diego State without him. Clear preference is Florida.
2. The Rest of Michigan's Region
(starts at 22:41)
How good is Gonzaga? We like that Syracuse is the and Florida State are with them because those two are talent-independent hoodoos. All Syracuse does is have Tyus Battle drive in the lane. Texas Tech is the three seed, and the other great defense. Who grad transfers from St. John's? Highly dependent on a Culver, a high-assist/usage guy Matthews will be checking. They're not a switching defense. They give up a lot of threes but we're guessing those are 24-foot step-backs. How do you shoot 211 threes at 26%? Marquette has Marcus Howard (36% usage!) who's just a jack-it-up shooter. FSU is a forest of arms.
3. MSU III
(starts at 45:44)
When Michigan faces a switching defense they just freeze and take bad shots because their answers don't work: X isn't a stepback shooter, they don't have any Iso guys, Matthews is not a good offensive player, and they can't feed the post. Izzo admits he "couldn't play Ward" but also auto-benched Tillman and Michigan immediately swung out to a double-digit lead. Hat tip to Cassius Winston. Grumbling about the slow development of Poole, and Michigan wings being so slow to recover to McQuaid. A 20-percent win percentage flip on a blown call at the end is especially galling because it will never change. Just once it would be nice to play a rival without the rival getting an assist from the officiating.
3. Iowa/Minnesota
(starts at 1:06:03)
Rote blowouts and flexing. Michigan fixed the Iowa problem as soon as they stopped putting Iggy on Garza and Teske on Cook—Cook is the Big Ten's biggest foul magnet, Iggy can't guard Garza. As soon as they stopped doing that it was over. Minnesota was just dog tired.
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MUSIC
- Space Cowboy"—Jonzun Crew
- "Anthems for a Seventeen-Year-Old Girl"—Broken Social Scene
- "Can't Get There from Here"—REM
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link (right-click/save-as)
- What's with the theme music?
The people are what spews forth from the vomitoria, not the contents of the people
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #5 Michigan (28-5) vs #4 Michigan State (27-6) |
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WHERE | Peak Wealth Management Center Chicago, IL |
WHEN | 3:30 PM |
LINE | Michigan State –1, 53% to win (Kenpom) Michigan –2.1, 59% to win (Torvik) |
TV | CBS |
THE US
Michigan has taken a flamethrower to Iowa and Minnesota to set a record for consecutive Big Ten Tourney wins at 10. Michigan State is the last roadblock between an unprecedented third consecutive conference tourney championship—and unfortunately it's a roadblock Michigan is 0-2 against this season.
But it's not like I'm not going to embed this.
THE LINEUP CARD
Click for big.
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 0 | Cassius Winston | Jr. | 6'1, 185 | 89 | 29 | 123 | No | |||||||||||
Egads, a bonafide PG. #3 assist rate nationally, shooting 52/41, big usage. Defense better this year. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 34 | Matt McQuaid | Sr. | 6'5, 200 | 85 | 14 | 126 | No | |||||||||||
3&D McPoyle shooting 41/42 split, allergic to rim. Does mostly deserve D rep, somehow. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 21 | Aaron Henry | Fr. | 6'6, 210 | 48 | 15 | 102 | Yes | |||||||||||
Composite #141 FR mostly a dunk on assists guy. 25 TO rate when he tries to create. Very occasionally shoots a 3. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 35 | Kenny Goins | Sr. | 6'6 230 | 73 | 15 | 112 | No | |||||||||||
Gritty grittenstein has added |
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C | 22 | Xavier Tillman | So. | 6'8, 245 | 80* | 20 | 121 | Yes | |||||||||||
Excellent utility guy shooting 65% in B10, rebound magnet, top 100 block rate, gets some steals, 71% at line. Very dependent on assists, 4.9 fouls per 40. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 23 | Foster Loyer | Fr. | 4'11 170 | 13 | 19 | 101 | Yes | |||||||||||
Gnome gets about 4 MPG. Had breakout game in quarters, back to anonymity in semis. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 1 | Kyle Ahrens | Jr. | 6'6, 210 | 45 | 13 | 114 | Meh | |||||||||||
Low usage Not Just A Shooter hitting 63/30 from the floor. Injury Q. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 2 | Gabe Brown | Fr. | 6'7, 210 | 15 | 12 | 129 | No | |||||||||||
Composite #101 FR is Just A Shooter hitting 34% from deep. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 15 | Nick Ward | Jr. | 6'9, 245 | 25* | 30 | 104 | Yes | |||||||||||
Half-bear is high usage post-only scorer who's much worse on D than Tillman. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #6 Michigan (27-5) vs #41 Minnesota (21-12) |
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WHERE | Underground Printing Center Chicago, IL |
WHEN | 3:30 PM |
LINE | Michigan –9, 79% to win (Kenpom) Michigan –9.6, 84% to win (Torvik) |
TV | CBS |
THE US
The version of Michigan that shoots threes like a Beilein team usually does is a beast to be reckoned with. Iowa found this out in a game that was only competitive for as long as it was because of a weird cross-match defensive strategy that saw Luka Garza score over Brazdeikis on every one of his first half possessions that Teske didn't block (he rebounded two of his own misses for putbacks). In all other ways Michigan stuffed the Hawkeyes in a burlap sack and threw them in the river.
Thanks to another questionable Carsen Edwards outing—4/17 from the floor—Michigan meets Minnesota for the third time. This version of the Gophers is whittled down and probably pretty tired, but the version of Michigan that shoots threes like a man who's been told making one will cause a kitten to explode lurks around every corner.
THE LINEUP CARD
Click for big.
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country. Minutes are from the last five games except where starred.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 0 | Dupree McBrayer | Sr. | 6'5, 195 | 88 | 18 | 100 | Yes | |||||||||||
Ugly shooting: 41/28 in conference. Does do some playmaking on his own. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 34 | Gabe Kalscheur | Fr. | 6'4, 200 | 77 | 16 | 113 | No | |||||||||||
Composite #198 FR has expanded his game a little but is still mostly Just A Shooter hitting 42% from deep. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 21 | Amir Coffey | Jr. | 6'8, 210 | 96 | 24 | 105 | Sort of | |||||||||||
Wiry swingman being forced into a lot of tough shots, shooting 49/31, gets to the line a lot. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 35 | Jordan Murphy | Sr. | 6'6 250 | 93 | 27 | 110 | Yes | |||||||||||
Bull of a PF grabs all the rebounds but can't really shoot and lack of size makes him meh (59%) at rim. Assist rate has doubled in final year. Drawing a ton of fouls. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 22 | Daniel Oturu | Fr. | 6'10, 225 | 58 | 23 | 107 | Yes | |||||||||||
Composite #50 FR is already an excellent defensive C. 13% OREB rate, 7% block rate, almost all his shots at the rim. Black hole you can and should double. 5.5 fouls per 40. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 23 | Isaiah Washington | So. | 6'1 195 | 0 | 23 | 85 | God Yes | |||||||||||
Disaster unicorn has been healthy scratch in last 5 games. | |||||||||||||||||||
Out for the year. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 2 | Brock Stull | So. | 6'4, 210 | 32 | 10 | 95 | No | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter with tiny season totals. 5/17 from 2, 10/22 from 3. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 15 | Matz Stockman | Sr. | 7'0, 245 | 36 | 25 | 106 | Yes | |||||||||||
Lanky Dutchman is Haarms-ish on D but strictly a roll guy on O. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
whoop they ass on three
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