2018 indiana

Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

Every year, the college football season provides us with a small number of quality games for us to consume. We all know and appreciate the 2006 Texas vs. USC Rose Bowls and the Kick Sixes and the #M00N Games. But they can’t all be prestige films. There are a lot of butts in a lot of seats, and it simply isn’t possible to make every game into a Citizen Kane or a Face/Off.

And I don’t think this is a bug. It’s a feature. Sometimes you’re in a mood for an easygoing popcorn action movie, which is why the Big 12 exists. For those of you who appreciate the Saw franchise, I recommend three hours of Rutgers. If you enjoy extended runtime and watching people turn huge piles of money into mediocre results a la Michael Bay, Notre Dame on NBC is probably up your alley.

I still say Notre Dame’s green alternate jerseys look weird

One series, though, ran out of new ideas a long time ago, even though it continues to provide entertainment on a surface level: the Jurassic Park series.

[After THE JUMP: The history of stupid]

So last November

SO LAST NOVEMBER Michigan's Cover 1 system was badly exposed against Indiana and Ohio State with crossing routes. IU showed you could double-team Winovich and Gary and get away with it because Michigan's DTs weren't going to win the 1-on-1 battles that created. That gave their quarterback enough time to find their receivers on crossing routes that exploited the lack of speed of some of Michigan's defenders. It worked for IU until Michigan was expecting it. It worked for Ohio State because there were speed matchups like Brandon Watson vs. Parris Campbell/KJ Hill/Chris Olave and JK Dobbins/Parris Campbell vs Devin Gil that vastly favored the Buckeyes, and Michigan's five-man pressures couldn't get home before those came into play.

I'm bringing this up now because Michigan just played another offense—one with a receiver on par with those at Ohio State—that wanted to run mesh plays with elite speed, was able to protect their quarterback, and yet got virtually nothing. I'm not talking about a patch—doing something unsound to stop Mesh is a good way to get your defense torched by all the other things. Michigan now has multiple responses to crossing routes from a multiple-looking defense. I know it's still early—no sports fan should ever have to go through The Rehabilitation of Urban Meyer twice—and there's no shame in not wanting to face it again. But if you're ready, I'll show you what I think happened, and why it's not happening anymore.

[After THE JUMP: Crossing routes. The bad ones.]

SPONSOR NOTE: Hey folks, this column is made possible in part by Matt Demorest, who's been one of our longest-term sponsors. He's also caused a steady stream of unfailingly high praise to hit my inbox from people who use his services. He is a person who will get you a mortgage right quick from the comfort of your own home. If you need one, he's the man, man.

FORMATION NOTES: Pretty much the standard by this point in the season: Michigan alternates between 1 and 3 TEs, spends 70% of its time in the gun and/or pistol, uses Ben Mason a little bit less than you'd like, and has largely abandoned Stanford-esque manball formations.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: QB, OL as per usual except Bushell-Beatty came out after the first two drives and Stueber went the rest of the way. Higdon resumed taking the plurality of RB snaps, with Evans, Mason and Wilson spotting him about half the time. Mason got some FB snaps as well; Wangler had a couple out of the pistol.

WR and TE were about usual too. Black got more snaps; Bell and Martin fewer than last week, but it was still Collins and DPJ most of the time with Perry in the slot. Michigan was slightly less TE heavy, with McKeon and Gentry out there about two-thirds of the time; Eubanks got his usual 15-20.

[After THE JUMP: everything but the girl]