MGoPodcast 9.18: Completely Serious About All of It

MGoPodcast 9.18: Completely Serious About All of It

Submitted by Seth on February 20th, 2018 at 9:45 AM

1 hour and 23 minutes

2018-02-20 mgopodcast 9.18

We are at the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, which now is the time to book those rooms for football next year because those fill up.

We Couldn’t Have One Without the Other

We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan there would be VERY long hiatuses between podcasts.

Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: HomeSure Lending, Peak Wealth Management, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,Human Element, Lantana Hummus and new this week introducing Ecotelligent Homes

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1. The Hoops Podcast

starts at 1:00

Bracketology: Even the biggest skeptics are coming around on Michigan as a 6-7 seed: NCAA and their buckets make it annoying because a win at Michigan State is the same as a “Quadrant One” trip to Penn State. Encouraging to see head of the selection committee say strength of nonconference is garbage. Big Ten goes to 20 games next year so we’ll see fewer Houston Baptists.

Poole eating into Matthews’s minutes, which is a nice thing to see given CM’s turnovers. MAAR is up to 20% usage. Michigan can beat anybody when they’re getting a huge shot differential from their turnover avoidance. Posting up on Dunc doesn’t work anymore. Peak Wisconsin names—Happ took 23 twos in that game!

Big Ten future: Indiana should be back up, Maryland will solidify itself, Brad Underwood a good hire at Illinois. Annually convince ourselves that Iowa will be good, but they’re 250th on defense. Penn State preview: Watkins gets angry—go get him Mo! Unlikable players in the Big Ten?

2. The Ball of Crap so We Aren’t Talking Recruiting Segment

starts at 34:01

Curling! Signing Day: Michigan recruiting imploded and we don’t know why. Otis Reese is understandable because Georgia is paying ridiculous money. Losing Herron from the 2019 class hurts.

Jim McElwain: he’s a position coach who can’t recruit, don’t think he’s a competent dude or a good dude—denigrating players like Mark Mangino. Made up a death threat. Credit card fraud. Track record as a WRs coach but as a 10th assistant he’s a wasted opportunity more than anything. Nobody down South likes him so you’re not even getting some help in Florida recruiting. Like Sherrone Moore and Ed Warriner hires. Not great that Pep is still around if it’s only because he didn’t get an NFL offer.

3. Gimmicky Top Five: Top Five Things NCAA Would Cite Beilein For

starts at 52:51

The FBI is going to come down on a lot of programs and the people in Ann Arbor aren’t scared, but we’re going to try to figure out what they’d find if they put Michigan’s basketball program under the microscope. This is what Michigan State failed to do—we’re getting out in front!

4. Ace’s Hockey Podcast wsg David Nasternak

starts at 1:06:26

Sweep weekend over #1 Notre Dame gives them a shot at the playoffs, provided they take care of business down the stretch vs. Arizona State—tournament upsets can really hurt teams in the 13-15 at-large area. ND was a good matchup for us because Michigan's an offensive team that can control the puck.

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MUSIC:

  • “We Will Not Make It (Not Without You)”—Twin Peaks
  • “The Star Spangled Banner”—Francis Scott Key, as “performed” by Fergie
  • “Drunk and On a Star”—Kevin Morby
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

They do have a couple of immensely punchable faces.

Basketbullets: Can This Team Be Good?

Basketbullets: Can This Team Be Good?

Submitted by Ace on December 6th, 2017 at 2:48 PM


[James Coller]

After the collapse at Ohio State on Monday, there's been quite a bit of consternation among Michigan fans about the course of the season. The Wolverines sit at 7-3, and they're only 2-3 against viable competition, with their best win coming against the #82-ranked team on KenPom. If they don't at least come away with a split in their upcoming games against UCLA and Texas, there's good reason to worry about how this team is going to compile a worthy tournament resumé.

To get an idea of how the season could play out, I wanted to take a look at how John Beilein's Michigan teams have improved (or not) over the course of the season. I'm an idiot, however, so thankfully our very own Alex Cook had the same thought and could actually put it into action. Alex used the game score metric from Bart Torvik*—a 0-100 score for each game based on adjusted efficiency margin—to map out the in-season progression of Beilein's teams. This, for example, is last season's graph. The blue line tracks the individual game scores; the black line is a five-game running average; the gray line is the overall season trend. As you certainly guessed, the 2016-17 graph shows a great deal of late-season improvement:


Waltoning, The Graph

The first question that I had: was last year more the exception or the rule? Alex went through each season to get the answer. Positive numbers show in-season improvement, negative the opposite:

I'm about to get into much more detail, but the initial takeaway is we can't assume that Beilein is going to turn things around this season without a couple things breaking the right way. Using the above as a guide, it's time to take a look at the potential ways this season plays out.

[Hit THE JUMP for season scenarios with past precedent.]

Hoops Preview: Ohio State

Hoops Preview: Ohio State

Submitted by Ace on December 4th, 2017 at 2:03 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #42 Michigan (7-2) at
#61 Ohio State (6-3)
WHERE Value City Arena
Columbus, Ohio
WHEN 6:31 pm ET, Monday
LINE OSU -1 (KenPom)
OSU -2 (Bovada)
TV FS1
PBP: Tim Brando
Analyst: Jim Jackson

Right: You're the Them now. [Patrick Barron]

THE US

Michigan gets a two-day turnaround with a road trip to face an Ohio State team also coming off a two-day turnaround with a road trip. The condensed Big Ten schedule with early-December conference games is already impacting the coaches. When asked about Ohio State after the Indiana game, John Beilein said this: "I have no idea what Ohio State's doing. I have no idea."

The good news is Buckeye coach Chris Holtmann, freshly imported from Butler, is probably in the same boat two days after a trip to the Kohl Center. While Michigan essentially cut their rotation to nine players for Saturday's Indiana game, Beilein wouldn't commit to sticking to that group—Jaaron Simmons is still in the mix for minutes and we could see some Ibi Watson if Jordan Poole is a little gassed after essentially doubling his season minute total. Perhaps we'll get more clarity on the rotation tonight; we could also see it expand a bit given the short rest.

Speaking of the Indiana game, I've got a set of gfycats for you to peruse.

Nifty.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 15 Kam Williams Sr. 6'2, 185 49 16 99 No
39% career three-point shooter off to slow start. Not a PG.
G 2 Musa Jallow Fr. 6'5, 200 59 13 100 Yes
Low usage, good finisher, struggling with outside shot.
F 1 Jae'Sean Tate Sr. 6'4, 230 74 24 103 Yes
Power forward stuck in shorter Charles Barkley's body. Good passer.
F 33 Keita Bates-Diop Jr. 6'7, 235 80 23 117 Not At All
Doing it all: scoring inside and out, rebounding, blocking shots.
C 34 Kaleb Wesson Fr. 6'9, 270 49 22 128 Very
Excellent post scorer, good offensive rebounder, turnover-prone.
G 3 CJ Jackson Jr. 6'1, 175 74 25 101 No
Better shooter than finisher. Turnover-prone for PG.
G 13 Andrew Dakich Sr. 6'2, 190 35 14 103 Kinda
Seriously. Tiny usage, doesn't shoot often, sky-high turnover rate.
F 24 Andre Wesson So. 6'6, 200 31 21 64 Yes
35% three-point shooter last year off to awful start.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]