Hoops Preview: Northwestern, Part 2

Hoops Preview: Northwestern, Part 2

Submitted by Brian on February 6th, 2018 at 12:12 PM

imageTHE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #24 Michigan (19-6) vs
#76 Northwestern (14-10)
WHERE Rosemont Horizon
Rosemont, IL     
WHEN 7 PM EST
LINE Michigan –1 (KenPom)
Michigan –1.5 (Vegas)
TV BTN

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Here is the power of home and away in college basketball: Michigan entered their most recent game against #91 Minnesota with an 80%+ win probability in Kenpom, which translated to a projected 11 point edge. (It did not quite work out that way.) Playing virtually the same quality team on the road, Michigan is favored by one. Also: at Crisler Michigan trailed this Northwestern team 14-5 halfway through the first half and Kenpom still had Michigan a 53% favorite.

Because of this huge swing in game outcomes based on little more that referee whims, Michigan's finishing stretch is coin flip central. Michigan has a win probability between 43 and 60% in five of their six remaining games, with a home game against Iowa (84%) the lone exception.

This Northwestern game is a 55% shot per Kenpom, though there are there are a couple complicating factors. Northwestern's temporary tenancy in Rosemont, Illinois, has resulted in a home court advantage in the bottom third of DI, far worse than Crisler's middling results. On the other hand, Michigan is arriving in Chicago today since their flight was snowed out last night. Hopefully they bring their practice jerseys.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 30 Bryant McIntosh Sr. 6'3, 200 78 25 98 Kinda
NW main and only shot creator enjoying his 8th season of Big Ten play. 41/30 splits, gets stuck with bad late clock stuff.
G 20 Scottie Lindsey Sr. 6'5, 210 76 24 101 Kinda
Other main "oh god someone shoot" guy. 45/31 on ton of volume. Does not get to line.
F 4 Vic Law Jr. 6'7, 200 72 21 112 No
39% from three; does go inside somewhat frequently. DREB vacuum.
F 44 Gavin Skelly Sr. 6'8, 235 54 17 103 No
Stretch-ish 4 will offer help rim protection and hit about 1 three a game; lot of TOs in his usage.
C 5 Dererk Pardon Jr. 6'8, 235 74 19 119 Very
Burly rim specialist will block shots, OREB, and finish.
G 11 Anthony Gaines Fr. 6'4, 205 39 15 95 Yes
Low usage FR gets to the line semi-frequently and has no other statistical strengths.
G 23 Jordan Ash Jr. 6'3, 200 31 11 98 Not Really
Invisible reserve G getting 15 minutes a game and occasionally flirting with trillions.
F 35 Aaron Falzon So. 6'8, 225 31 19 114 Not At All
Just A Shooter hitting 40%.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]