Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament 2017

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament 2017

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 21st, 2017 at 10:02 AM

Thursday, March 17, 2017

Michigan 1, Penn State 4

1st period

Folkes Goal

UM 0 PSU 1 PPG 10:50 Assists: Biro & Autio

Folkes passes to Biro, who takes the pass and skates behind the net. Cecconi, who’s currently in the slot, makes a smart move: he checks for anyone cutting in backside before turning to pick up the skater behind the net.

btt thurs 1-1

As Biro emerges on Cecconi’s side of the net, he finds himself close to having the puck knocked away. Meanwhile, Folkes sees Biro in trouble and skates behind the net to get into position for a pass back. That’s when things really go sideways for Michigan. Biro slams on the brakes and spins back; Folkes continues skating and slips past Cecconi, turning so that his logo is facing the goaltender and ready for a quick wrister should the puck come out.

btt thurs 1-2

It does. Biro backhands a perfect pass to Folkes, who just has to snap it on net. Nagelvoort is thinking that Biro is going to try to wrap it around on the other side, and even though De Jong is there he comes off the post a bit. That opens up enough space for Folkes to bury it. The play’s pretty much doomed the minute Cecconi overplays Biro and doesn’t come away with the puck. Even so, give Penn State credit for executing a really impressive switch, pass, and shot. This is far from Michigan’s worst defensive breakdown of the season and PSU made the goal look effortless.

btt thurs 1-3

[After THE JUMP: It’s a tournament, so the bounces were going to be weird. Also, some thoughts on Red’s future.]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Penn State, Part Two

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Penn State, Part Two

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 14th, 2017 at 9:58 AM

32545774414_353e6f94eb_z

All you have to do to eke a smile out of him is pitch a 46-shot shutout and stay four years it’s really not that hard [James Coller]

Friday, March 10, 2017

Michigan 3, #11 Penn State 2

1st period

Myllari Goal

UM 0 PSU 1 EV 19:59 Assists: Sucese & Biro

Lockwood carries the puck into the offensive zone with 15 seconds to go in the period and I distinctly remember looking at the clock and thinking that the period was as good as done. Something in the darker, loathing, confrontational part of my brain perked up at this sunny optimism and immediately reminded me that you’d think so but, like, this season…

Stupid accurate darker, loathing, confrontational part of my brain.

Sucese gets the puck deep and shoots from a bad angle, and with no one in front of the net to deflect it the puck goes through the slot and hits the boards on the opposite side of the rink.

mich psu fri 1-1

Myllari sees the puck bounce off the boards, does a nice job reading the angle of the bounce, and gets himself all wound up for a one-timer. It’s worth noting that Lavigne sees where the puck is headed and gets across the crease in time to do something; at this point he’s still standing.

mich psu fri 1-2

Sanchez gets in position to block the shot, sliding out of the way just as the puck passes him. Proof positive that luck plays a bigger part in hockey than most of us would like to admit. It seems like Lavigne had a hard time tracking the flight of the puck as Sanchez passed in front of him. Otherwise he would have eschewed the butterfly in favor of standing, as you don’t have to worry about a rebound off the chest protector when the puck’s released with one second left.

mich psu fri 1-3

[After THE JUMP: more weird goals, Nagelvoort’s unreal, bork bork bork]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Minnesota, Part Two

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Minnesota, Part Two

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 8th, 2017 at 1:03 PM

33146192551_ce3fcbd7d5_z

[JD Scott]

Friday, March 3, 2017

Michigan 5, #5 Minnesota 3

1st period

Cammarata Goal

Mich 0 Minn 1 PPG 13:21 Assists: Bristedt & Gates

A deflected pass turns into a loose puck and that in turn becomes an opportunity for Minnesota to cycle the puck in the corner. Warren gets his stick into the passing lane and is a fraction of a second from knocking the pass away. The 2016-17 season is, however, a cruel mistress, so the pass gets through and the Minnesota skaters switch spots.

mich minnes fri 1-1

Gates skates into the circle and turns to open up for a pass as Bristedt loops around at the wall. Luce is watching this and understandably becomes preoccupied with saddling up next to Gates.

mich minnes fri 1-2

Cammarata sees the cycling along the wall and steps away from the crease. Boka had just dumped him to that side of the net two frames earlier and has since watching the cycling along the wall and quickly checked behind him to see if a skater was in position for a cross-ice one-timer.  A good check, but one that sees him lose sight of Cammarata.

Bristedt doesn’t lose sight of him; he sees Luce take away Gates while the easier pass to Cammarata at the side of the net simultaneously opens up.

mich minnes fri 1-3

Cammarata reaches as far across as possible upon receipt and flings a shot in before Nagelvoort can get his leg extended.

As Sean Ritchlin said on the broadcast, you’re either going to tuck the puck in far-side before the goalie can push off the post or you’re going to get the goalie to kick it and create a rebound for that backside skater who’s been handing out in the faceoff circle (or the one in the slot).

mich minnes fri 1-4

[Much more after THE JUMP]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Ohio State, Part Two

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Ohio State, Part Two

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on February 28th, 2017 at 10:03 AM

31872437094_5c12ee02b3_z

[James Coller]

[Note: Yeah, the picture above is from the first time these teams played this season. It’s a good picture, man. It’s also a picture of Evan Allen, who had a great series. Also, the screenshots from the first game are really grainy because the stream was OSU’s scoreboard and the quality was middling.]

Friday, February 24, 2017

#12 Ohio State 4, Michigan 2

1st period

ALLEN GOAL

OSU 0 UM 1 EV 12:12 Assists: De Jong

De Jong crosses the line just a fraction of a blade’s length ahead of his teammates, just enough to keep the play onside. As they cross, Allen starts to drop back to provide a passing option as the trailer while the other skater goes hard to the front of the net.

mich oh st fri 1-1

The defenders have to play this with a fairly large gap between themselves and the Michigan skaters due to it being an odd-man rush. Allen gets a ton of cushion when he drops back. Even though only one defender is going to carry the netfront skater, they both have to check where he’s going long enough to make passing pack to Allen the best choice for De Jong.

mich oh st fri 1-2

Allen makes the smart play here and pulls it around the defender, which creates the time needed for a screen to begin to take shape in front of the net. Allen shoots at this point and beats Frey…high? Low? Can anyone tell with this jumbotron feed? The puck went in, I know that much.

mich oh st fri 1-3

[After THE JUMP: I understand this season despite not understanding it at all]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin, Part Two

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin, Part Two

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on February 22nd, 2017 at 3:03 PM

32827620852_db3bd02639_z

[Patrick Barron]

Friday, February 17, 2017

#20 Wisconsin 5, Michigan 2

1st period

Frederic Goal

UW 1 UM 0 EV 10:53 Assists: Linhart & Tischke

Tischke passes to Linhart and gets the defense moving from the goalie’s left to right.

mich wisc fri 1-1

Linhart executes an exaggerated step to his left, which pulls the defense further outside his shooting lane. From there, he sees an opening and shoots it off the boards behind the goal.

mich wisc fri 1-2

Michigan’s about to get beat by a Lidstrom. This may be called something else by others, but those people are wrong. Aside from steering everyone under the sun harmlessly into the corner for, like, two decades, this was his signature move. The puck hits the boards and bounces right to Frederic. He just has to throw the puck at the open net, as there’s no way LaFontaine can get over fast enough to square to the shot.

As for the unnerving openness of Frederic, this could have been prevented had De Jong and Cecconi not doubled the skater in the slot. This is especially frustrating considering how often Michigan has left guys unchecked in the same area.

mich wisc fri 1-3

[After THE JUMP: turnovers of the nonfood variety]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State, Part Two

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State, Part Two

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on February 15th, 2017 at 10:00 AM

32486272710_af176a90c7_z

[Bill Rapai]

Friday, February 10, 2017

Michigan State 4, Michigan 4 (Michigan wins SO)

1st period

Hirose Goal

MSU 1 UM 0 EV 00:36 Assists: Appleton & Cox

It’s worth noting that this starts after the second shot on goal, so we’re picking things up in the middle of play. Cecconi tries to hit the second shot-taker in front of the crease and immediately comes off of him to track the State player behind the net who gets the loose puck. Considering the number of other defenders behind the net, it’s surprising that Cecconi didn’t move laterally and stay in front of the net.

mich msu fri 1-1

Appleton, who now has the puck in the corner, is defended by Slaker. Appleton drifts backward and loses Slaker by quickly changing directions and pushing toward the net. Cecconi peels off his circular path back to the front of the net and strides toward Appleton.

mich msu fri 1-2

Switching defenders momentarily opens up a passing lane, which Appleton utilizes to pass to Hirose. Hirose one-times it and hits the near-side top corner, just a touch over the height to which Lavigne can shrug his shoulder. Warren sees that Hirose is going to get the puck (because he’s watching it in the corner), but that delay means he can’t get his stick into the shooting lane before the shot it away.

mich msu fri 1-3

[After THE JUMP: Bill takes great photos]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Ohio State

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Ohio State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on February 8th, 2017 at 12:00 PM

32601040722_c95dbda010_z

[Ryan McLoughlin]

Friday, February 3, 2017

Michigan 5, #11 Ohio State 4

1st period

ALLEN GOAL

UM 1 0SU 0 EV 08:21 Assists: Shuart & Winborg

Winborg wins the faceoff and knocks the puck to Shuart on his right. Shuart sort of accidentally shovels it forward to Winborg, but Winborg again scoops it up and back to Shuart.

m osu fri 1-1

With the puck now solidly on his stick, Shuart’s determined to do something purposeful with the puck. He shoots, and the shot is blocked by the OSU defender in front of him. The puck bounces off the defender and ends up to his left.

m osu fri 1-2

This next bit happens so quickly that I’m not sure whether Shuart passes to Allen or whether Allen picks up the loose puck himself. Either way, Allen has the puck. He splits two defenders and finds himself with a wide-open net, as Frey is still sliding across after squaring to Shuart’s shot.

m osu fri 1-3

[After THE JUMP: 2015-16 redux (for 40 minutes at a time)]

Hockey at the Midpoint: Analyzing Netfront Scoring

Hockey at the Midpoint: Analyzing Netfront Scoring

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on February 3rd, 2017 at 10:04 AM

31490873954_7ab766c62c_z

[Patrick Barron]

In the beginning, it seemed like things might change. Michigan’s defense has been giving up more shot attempts than their offense has been generating from the drop, but the freshman class seemed to inject a bit more tenacity into Michigan’s forechecking. Opponents held the puck for long stretches, but it seemed that the prime scoring chances ceded by defenses in years past, the ones right in front of the net, may have been corrected. At least, that’s what this writer naively believed.

We’re now a bit past the midway point in the season and, thanks to some meticulous stat tracking, we have data to lean on that suggests the unchecked-man-in-front-of-the-net problem has not been remedied. An idea that’s gained popularity over the last few years among NHL advanced stats wonks is separating out from which area a shot is attempted. Those analysts have found what one might expect: more goals are scored from the area in front of the net than from the edges of the zone. Below we have scoring chance by shooting location via a Chance article by A.C. Thomas:

Pucksberry: What We Can Learn From Hexagonal Plots of NHL Data

Based on information like the above, analysts have started to call the area with the two darkest shades of green the “home plate” area. The success rate above is based on NHL data, but the idea can be carried over to college hockey. With that in mind, David has been tracking shot attempts (in the Corsi sense; shots on goal+misses+blocked shots) all season. (Special thanks to Orion Sang and Mike Persak of the Daily for frequently providing us with shot charts.) Now that we’re past the midpoint of the season and solidly into Big Ten play, it seems that there’s enough data to see how Michigan’s defense has fared. It’s, uh…well, there’s a reason I called myself “naïve” above.

[After THE JUMP: cheery fun stuff]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on January 24th, 2017 at 12:00 PM

31631644773_5b454ef89c_z

[Bill Rapai]

Friday, January 20, 2017

Michigan 0, Michigan State 3

1st period

Saliba Goal

UM 0 MSU 1 PPG 03:03 Assists: Ebbing & Hirose

State moves the puck off the boards to the area behind the net. It’s a good idea, as it’s the start of moving the puck from low to high and stressing the defense.

m msu fri 1-1

State does just that, threading the puck back up to the point. Cutler Martin’s in good position to pressure the point and the Michigan PK handles the vertical stretch as well as can be expected.

m msu fri 1-2

The shot to the front of the net is somehow threaded through traffic, and the outcome (a stopped shot with a tantalizing rebound to the side) is to be expected. Perhaps most concerning is that the netfront skater got into position without so much as a stick check, simply gliding from his space behind the net to the area right in front of Lafontaine.

m msu fri 1-3

De Jong notices that there’s a State skater in front of the crease after the puck’s been deflected, and now he’s between a rock and a hard place: there are two guys to defend, one of which has the puck and has decided to shoot. De Jong is too far away to impede the shot, and Lafontaine’s not stopping this without making a highlight-reel save given the dearth of time between the rebound and shot.

m msu fri 1-4

[After THE JUMP: GIF as metaphor and a sneaky good shootout goal]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Minnesota

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Minnesota

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on January 18th, 2017 at 10:01 AM

32333077945_6f1263ec7e_z

[Patrick Barron]

Friday, January 13, 2017

#9 Minnesota 5, Michigan 2

1st period

SHUART GOAL

Minn 0 Mich 1 EV 08:57 Assists: Allen & Winborg

The puck’s dumped in, and though that’s usually not a great way to generate offense it works here because Allen’s essentially dumping it to the corner to himself. Getting rid of the puck allows him to use his forward momentum against the back-skating, mid-turn defender without worrying about the puck being knocked away.

m minn fri 1-1

Winborg, who’s in the faceoff circle in the screencap above, gets into excellent position behind the net. He’s there to set a pick as Minnesota switches defenders, with the one in the bottom of the faceoff circle in the above screencap the man who’s picked off. Allen has the space behind the two to poke the puck ahead, skate through, and retrieve it.

m minn fri 1-2

Allen gets the puck and has a huge passing lane with which to work. Schierhorn’s got to whip his head from tracking behind the net to the side of the net to the high slot too quickly for him to do much about a shot attempt.

m minn fri 1-3

Minnesota’s forwards all collapse on net and watch behind the net, which allows Shuart a perfect and completely undefended chance. He puts the puck high on Schierhorn, who can do no more than flinch.

m minn fri 1-4