2014-15 michigan state
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (13-8, 6-3 B1G) at Michigan State (14-7, 5-3) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan |
| WHEN | 1 pm ET, Sunday |
| LINE | MSU -8 (KenPom) |
| TV |
CBS PBP: Ian Eagle Analyst: Bill Raftery |
THE US
This is ominous:
Beilein: Walton is limited in what he can do. Questionable for tomorrow.
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) January 31, 2015
This is more ominous:
Beilein was asked if there's any concern he may have to sit Derrick Walton Jr for "an extended period of time." Beilein: "That's an option."
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) January 31, 2015
If that's on the table, it doesn't sound like Walton will play; even if he does, he'll still be quite limited. At this stage, it might be best to shut him down for a while.
THE STAKES
This isn't a must-win for Michigan's tournament hopes, but a victory would help their prospects quite a bit. KenPom currently projects M to finish with a 10-8 conference record, and they'll need that to be at least 11-7 to have a good shot of grabbing a bid, in all likelihood. Of the remaining games on the schedule, this is the one KenPom least likes M to win—his numbers give a 17% chance at victory. Pulling this off would change the outlook dramatically.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 20 | Travis Trice | Sr. | 6'0, 170 | 82 | 25 | No | ||||||||||||
| Disciplined and productive distributor. Dangerous outside shooter. Not great inside arc. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 5 | Bryn Forbes | Jr. | 6'3, 180 | 69 | 14 | No | ||||||||||||
| Spot-up gunner hitting 47% of threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 45 | Denzel Valentine | Jr. | 6'5, 220 | 70 | 28 | No | ||||||||||||
| Does a bit of everything: rebounding, passing, shooting, and hilarious turnovers. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 22 | Branden Dawson | Sr. | 6'6, 225 | 82 | 22 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Great athlete, monster on the boards, excellent defender. Not a shot creator. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 34 | Gavin Schilling | So. | 6'9, 240 | 45 | 20 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Solid rebounder and rim protector. Decent finisher. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 10 | Matt Costello | Jr. | 6'9, 245 | 45 | 18 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Very similar minutes and profile as Schilling. Eminently elbowable face. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 11 | Lowrawls "Tum Tum" Nairn | Fr. | 5'10, 170 | 37 | 13 | Very | ||||||||||||
| All-pass, no-shoot PG who's prone to freshman mistakes. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 2 | Javon Bess | Fr. | 6'5, 215 | 29 | 16 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Good rebounder, defender earned starting job before spraining ankle. May be limited. | |||||||||||||||||||
THE RESUME
While MSU has come close to a marquee win a few times—a five-point loss against #12 Kansas, overtime losses to #13 Notre Dame and #34 Maryland—they've yet to beat a team ranked higher than #44 Iowa on KenPom. With the exception of losses against Texas Southern and Nebraska, they've beaten the teams they should and lost to the teams you'd expect.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
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