Upon Further Review 2010: Offense vs Purdue

Upon Further Review 2010: Offense vs Purdue

Submitted by Brian on November 18th, 2010 at 3:09 PM

Formation notes: We've already given a lot of time to Purdue's banzai cover zero that they spent most of the game in. It started like this…

power-off-tackle-1

…and usually went to this…

power-off-tackle-2

…and Michigan was all like "I'm feeling like a light brigade, yo." Michigan didn't do anything special other than bring out the double TE set we saw briefly earlier in the year on their final drive.

Substitution notes: Huyge played almost the entire game but Dorrestein came in late for a series. He got blown up twice and Huyge returned. Shaw went out early with a concussion-type thing, leaving almost all of the snaps for Smith. Hopkins got a few and Fitzgerald Toussaint made an appearance on one fourth quarter drive. WR rotation was the usual, though Stokes returned. You are aware of the QB flipping.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M35 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA out Roundtree 18
Purdue comes out in a two-deep with a slot LB, then moves that LB down to blitz. Michigan immediately exploits this by going at the slot receiver. Outside receiver runs off the corner, Roundtree runs a three yard out and has acres of space to pick up YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Roundtree gets some extra by making the safety whiff. RPS +1.
O47 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Pass PA hitch Roundtree Inc
Exploiting the same hole in Purdue's alignment, though the safety is in a better position to hold this under first down yardage in the event of a catch. Roundtree drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O47 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 11
Purdue shifts the linebackers over the slot to cover the play, bringing a safety down from the other side of the field. Michigan fakes the same play and runs a draw off of it, catching Purdue out of position again. That safety drops back on the pump fake expecting pass, so when Omameh(+1) and Schilling(+1) get Robinson a lane he's got a ton of space and can just run away from the MLB. He heads outside for the first down, whereupon the corner strips the ball. Boo. RPS+1.
RUN+: Schilling, Omameh RUN-:
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q. Magee had Purdue straight trippin' here. Unfortunate fumble.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O38 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 9
Corner blitz to the playside so the linemen are slanting away from the stretch. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) immediately release downfield and get thumping blocks on the two MLBs. Huyge(-1) gets slanted under but Koger(+1) reads the blitz and kicks out the corner; Smith(+1) has a big lane he hits, managing to stay on his feet by falling on some detritus and grabbing a few extra yards.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Smith RUN-: Huyge
O29 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 2 + 12 sax
Safety rolls up and the other safety is only about eight yards off the LOS. Playside DE slants under Lewan(-2) and gets right in the running lane. This is really unusual because if the DE doesn't do this successfully he's just given up the edge and a big play. This guy--not even Kerrigan--is ballin', though. (The difference between this and the picture-paged play that's similar is that Lewan's guy shoots into the backfield; in the PP play he's pushed past the action.) An excellent driving block from Molk(+1) gives Smith room to cut upfield or the first down but only just; Smith cuts and fumbles. Lewan scoops it up and picks up another chunk of yards. Just that kind of year for Purdue.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Lewan(2)
O15 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass PA TE flat Koger 4
Playside DE is unblocked and screams at Robinson. Robinson WOOPs him. This opens up the TE flat, which Robinson throws. Throw is high and wobbly and seems to delay Koger that half step that's the difference between seven yards and four. Still, with the dodge this is a good play. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS -1)
O11 2 6 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB lead draw Robinson 2
Late move after a check sends a safety and a nickel guy into the box for eight; obvious man zero. Nickel guy picks off Shaw and leaves a linebacker unblocked in the hole; Kerrigan stood up Lewan and comes off to tackle when Robinson is forced to cut back upfield due to the LB. Not really anyone's fault; Michigan got caught by the late Purdue check. RPS-1.
RUN+: N/A RUN-:
O9 3 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass PA rollout cross Roundtree 9
Another late shift; Roundtree sees a safety shift as he's running his crossing route and as both those guys suck up to the threat of Denard on the edge he appears to take his route vertical as an adjustment, sticking his hand in the air as he does. Robinson sees it and flicks it to the now vastly open 'Tree for six. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1). Good by Shaw to get a block on a ravenous Kerrigan.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 4 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M30 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Shaw 1
Another late move to an eight man front. This doesn't have to matter because the interior line appears to get decent blocks save Lewan, who allows his DE to set up in a place where he might be able to come off and tackle. We never find out because Kerrigan has destroyed Huyge(-2) and flows down the line to tackle as the cutback is forced by a charging nickelback blitz. ZR+1 as the safety came up to contain, RPS -1 for getting suckered by the late shift again.
M31 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass Fly Hemingway Inc
Hemingway has a step or two on the DB; ball is thrown on a line and ten yards inaccurate. Turrible throw, this. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M31 3 9 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 3-3-5 nickel Pass Hitch Stonum Inc
Robinson finds Stonum for first down yardage and zings it in there; Purdue has excellent coverage and hits Stonum as the ball arrives. Catchable and frustrating this was brought in but not a pure drop. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-3, 14 min 2nd Q. Purdue three and out followed by Gallon being insane, not fielding a bouncing ball at the 20, and giving up 25 yards of field position.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M6 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 1
Guh. This opens up nicely as Molk(+1) gets a good seal on the playside DT as Michigan runs away from the line shift. Lewan again does not get a kick on the DE and gets driven back so that Robinson has to cut inside, but since this is a backup he can't peel to tackle like the previous guy did. So Robinson can hit it up, except for Schilling(-2) completely whiffing on the playside LB. Free release, running right at him, and took a bad angle so that he can just shoot inside. Smith tries to change direction and pick him off but can't.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Schilling(2), Lewan
M7 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass PA Out Roundtree 16
Safety rolls up. Purdue does not have a guy over Roundtree and has a single high safety 11 yards off, so Michigan goes back to the stuff from the first drive and hits a wide open Roundtree for 3 yards plus epic YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M23 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 6
Good handoff with a contain guy coming upfield(ZR +1). Playside DE slants under Huyge(-1), forcing a cutback. There is one this time because Lewan(+1) blew Kerrigan off the LOS and the contain guy was way up on Robinson. Smith zips back behind all the blocking and is running to get outside the WLB for Purdue. He can't quite make it, a step slow. Omameh and Molk had killed the playside DT but the slant-under made it irrelevant.
RUN+: Lewan, Smith, Omameh(0.5), Molk(0.5) RUN-: Huyge
M29 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB stretch Robinson 4
Safety rolled up and the SLB basically in the box. Michigan runs right at this and away from the strength of the formation. Right side of the line does a great job of scooping the Purdue line, getting playside DE and DT sealed and popping a lineman off onto a linebacker but math means there's an extra linebacker, who tackles easily. Reminds me of Debord, this play, and pretty much only this play.
RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Huyge RUN-:
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 0
Schilling pulls around Lewan(-2), who had a downblock assignment on a DT lined up well inside of him and didn't even come close to sealing the guy away. He flows, Schilling has nowhere to go, there's no crease, and Robinson does well just to get back to the LOS.
RUN+: RUN-: Lewan(2)
M33 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 ??? Pass Hitch Hemingway 10
Purdue very late getting lined up and they are not in position as the ball is snapped. M rolls out and Robinson hits Hemingway about four yards downfield; Hemingway is taken inside by the throw and then steps outside a charging Purdue DB, who slips. Free of that guy he can pick up the first. He's huge and not that fast but he's got a knack for making yards after the catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M43 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 3
Michigan does not have a response to this DE slanting inside as M runs against a lot of eight man fronts. If they're going cover zero M has to pass. Here Huyge gets slanted under, as does Schilling, but Schilling pushes the DT past and he trips to the ground. Webb is headed outside; Lewan is playside of the backside DE but just barely. With the contain guy one on one with Webb Robinson should pull (ZR -1), but doesn't. Hopkins has to dance around the Schilling mess and hits Lewan. He keeps his feet driving forward. Pile gets four. RPS -1.
RUN+: Hopkins RUN-: Robinson
M46 2 7 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Inside zone Hopkins 0
Purdue slants against the grain, which gets a linebacker in the hole unblocked. Hopkins sees this and cuts back, where Schilling(-1) and Lewan(-1) are ineffectively doubling a guy who slanted under Schilling. Hopkins does not have the quickness to get past the DT, who dives to tackle just as Hopkins looks like he's going to bust it into the secondary. RPS -1, ZR +1.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling, Lewan
M46 3 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass TE seam Webb 29
It's third and seven and Purdue has eight guys in the box. Odd. Michigan goes at the rolled up safety. Webb gets a step on him but not much more; he's well covered. Robinson drops in a gorgeous touch pass over the top of said coverage for a first down and a big gain. Ridiculously good pass. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O25 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Hopkins 1
Michigan tries to scoop the playside DT here but Molk(-1) does not get enough of a push on the guy and leaves Schilling a tough task. He can't manage it. This is at least somewhat his fault, too. His DE flows down the line. Hopkins tries to cut it upfield but by the time he can do so there is literally no gap. He hits Schilling, then the DT Huyge is blocking, and squeezes through for a few yards. Great downfield block by Omameh for naught.
RUN+: Omameh RUN-: Schilling, Molk
O24 2 9 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Pass Deep slant Roundtree 15
Purdue shifts its linebackers to the RB side, expecting a PA fake and half-roll. They get it, blitzing right into Michigan's protection, slating a guy past Omameh, and generally making this play look doomed. Robinson comes off a quick out, his first read, and shoots a ball to a well covered Roundtree as he gets hit. Tree reaches up to grab it and is immediately tackled. Bad ass. (DO, 3, protection 0/3, team, Omameh 1, RPS -2)
O9 1 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 1
Again with the slanting. This time Michigan is running the lead draw at the slant, which should be good. Playside DE runs inside Huyge and there are three linebackers on the two lead blockers and Molk. Molk is trying to double the Purdue DT and pop off; Purdue DT chucks him in the direction of his momentum and he flies by the LB. This will never be called but that seems like a penalty to me. -1, unfortunately. Two playside guys get kicked out by lead blockers and Robinson has to head inside; Huyge(-1) let the slanting DE spin off him and hammer Robinson after a minimal gain. Robinson gets 2-3 more without that even with the Molk issues.
RUN+: RUN-: Molk, Huyge
O8 2 G Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 3 (Pen -10)
Flag is iffy, as the playside DT shoots right upfield and falls with very little assistance from Molk; Molk lays on him. After that it's Schilling and Lewan doubling Kerrigan. They drive him downfield but the playside LB does a nice job to hit it up and get outside of Lewan; no hole. Robinson can't cut it back because no one tried to block the DE on the backside and he's flowing down the line in the right spot. He plows it up behind the Schilling/Lewan block for okay yardage.
O18 2 G Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass Slant Roundtree Int
Michigan runs double slants (ie, the New Math play) and both linebackers suck in on the Roundtree one, giving Robinson what should be an easy read to take Hemingway deeper. He doesn't. He fires it at Roundtree, well behind him. If accurate a LB bats it or picks it off, as it is it looks like the guy tips it slightly. Ball is still headed directly at a safety, who picks it off and returns it for a TD. GUUUURUURUURGUURUGUG. (BRX--the X is for EXTREME, 0, protection 2/2) BWS picture-paged this. I agree that there was a small window for the Roundtree slant that he came to late but he should have thrown the deep slant to Hemingway, who is wide open and the first read. The linebacker who needs to undercut the Hemingway slant is on the LOS. BRXXXXX.
Drive Notes: Defensive TD, 14-10, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power off tackle Smith 17
Late move brings a safety into the box and M is again running against 8. This time Michigan blocks down and pulls Schilling. Kerrigan is the playside DE and responds to the down block like it's a stretch, running himself out of the play and opening up a big hole on the outside. Huyge(+1) escorted him out of the play. Hopkins kicks out the blitzing slot LB and Schilling(+1) gets a good open field block on the MLB, giving Smith a wide open lane to the outside. Roundtree(+1) doesn't actually have to block his safety but does get in the way and forces the guy to dance around, giving ground, so that Smith doesn't cut to one side of him and break into nothing but grass. No RPS plus because if the Purdue guy who's blocked by Schilling gets outside Smith has to cut up into unblocked guys. This could have been defended by Purdue but a linebacker made an error.
RUN+: Huyge, Schilling, Smith, Roundtree RUN-:
M37 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone stretch Hopkins -1
They try to hit Purdue with the exact play they anticipated on the last play, and Purdue crushes it. Omameh(-1) runs by the backside DT too fast to get a scoop and Molk(-1) is blown back as well, so Hopkins has to try to cut upfield into nothing. Even if he does get a good cut the backside DE is flowing hard down the line. Eight in the box allows a safety to contain Denard and thus lets Purdue slant hard to the playside without fear of a cutback. Meanwhile Purdue's spent most of the quarter in cover zero with DBs ten yards off the outside WRs and Michigan has not run the constraint plays to get them out of this formation. Frustrating. RPS -1.
RUN+: RUN-: Omameh, Molk, Hopkins
M36 2 11 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power off tackle Smith 3
Same play as earlier and this time Purdue is much better prepared, with the guy getting blocked by Schilling getting outside and another player hitting the hole to the inside. Smith has to bounce and bounces into a linebacker for a minimal gain. RPS -1.
RUN+: N/A RUN-:
M36 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass Tunnel screen Roundtree 7
Man on the WRs with one high safety. Michigan does catch Purdue in a blitz—they send five. Four of those guys are gone as Robinson flips a screen out to Roundtree (CA, 3, screen). Molk and Schilling release downfield, with Molk(+1) picking up a block on a guy who'd gotten inside the slot receiver and Schilling running upfield with no one in particular to hit. The fifth Purdue player peels back and gets a diving ankle tackle on Roundtree that slows him and allows Purdue to get him down just short of the sticks. Great play by that guy. Robinson's throw was a little high but I don't think it materially slowed Roundtree.
M43 4 1 I-form twins 2 1 2 Base 4-3? Run Iso Hopkins 0
Michigan gets to the line and snaps it before the nose tackle even gets in his stance; a sneak is guaranteed. Frustrating. Even so it looks like they should get the first down except for Hopkins fumbling, which makes him slow up and allows Kerrigan, unblocked on the backside, to plow him. Purdue recovers the fumble anyway and while it's not a big deal because Michigan didn't make the fourth down, the reason they didn't make the fourth down was the fumble, so this is a real turnover. Not charted due to 'sax.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 14-10, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Pass PA Sack ? -8
Michigan is rolling the pocket away from a weak zone fake and Lewan(-1) hands Kerrigan off to Schilling(-2), which turns out to be a very bad idea as Kerrigan rips through the line and eats Denard. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3, Lewan -1, Schilling -2)
M12 2 18 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Run QB draw Robinson 17
Omameh(+1) shoves his DT inside and with the DEs tearing upfield that gets Denard through the line. Smith(+1)is out there as a lead blocker; he picks off one linebacker. Roundtree(+1) hits another inside, providing a cutback lane. Denard(+2) runs past a charging safety and turns it up, cutting it inside when a corner eludes Grady. Corner makes a desperate diving grab at Robinson's legs that is successful at hewing him down at the sticks.
RUN+: Omameh, Smith, Roundtree, Robinson(2) RUN-:
M29 3 1 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Smith 2
Nowhere to go as Omameh(-1) gets blasted back and the rest of the OL can only stalemate guys. Smith(+1) has an opportunity to cut back as Huyge(+1) managed to not get shoved back by Kerrigan and his aggressive crash opens up a small window. Smith is agile enough to dance through it for the yard.
M31 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass Hitch Stonum 12
Straight dropback and Robinson has forever. Michigan has max pro against a four man rush. Robinson comes off two reads to find Stonum alone about ten yards downfield. (CA, 3, protection 3/3)
M43 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone stretch Smith 6
I'm not sure if this is a concession to Kerrigan's awesome or the eighth guy in the box or a mistake, but here Huyge blocks the backside DE on a stretch, which rarely happens. Molk(+2) gets one of those killer reach blocks on the playside DT, Omameh(+1) gets his helmet across the backside guy and drives him downfield, and Schilling(+1) kicks out the playside LB. Smith has a spectacular hole it hit and does so, and if he was Mark Ingram or something maybe he runs through a tackle but he's not so the totally unblocked MLB makes a diving ankle tackle and holds this down. RPS -1? Yeah. Picture paged.
RUN+: Molk(2), Omameh, Schilling RUN-:
M49 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 4 (Pen -10)
Molk gets called for a hold or quickly popping out on the DT and grabbing him around the shoulder. A legit call, and really frustrating since Michigan was running a power off tackle and it doesn't really matter how Molk blocks this guy because he's going to have to have a hovercar to make a play here. Stupid. Robinson decides to cut it upfield because Omameh(+1) destroyed the other DT and Huyge got a block on a linebacker; Koger(-1) couldn't do much with Kerrigan and he comes off to tackle from behind, robbing M of a couple extra yards.
RUN+: Omameh, Lewan RUN-: Molk(2), Koger
M39 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass Rollout hitch Hemingway 23
Still eight guys in the box for Purdue on second and long, and they pay for it. Michigan rolls the pocket and throws a quick hitch to Hemingway that pulls him inside and past a diving corner who is on an island. That guy on the ground, Hemingway can pick up the first down easily. Pass was very low and a tough grab. (MA, 2, protection N/A, RPS +1 I guess)
O38 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone read keeper Robinson -6
Very bad decision to keep with the slot LB lined up well inside and another LB heading backside. Robinson has nowhere to go and gets tackled for a major loss. By doing this Purdue is opening the bubble up extensively, but Michigan hasn't thrown it once. RPS -1, ZR -1.
RUN+: RUN-: Robinson(2)
O44 2 16 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power veer Shaw 2
Odd play. Line blocks down and Omameh pulls. Playside DE is left unblocked as Lewan and Molk release downfield. Molk blocks no one. Lewan erases the MLB. Smith draws the slot guy outside, leaving Omameh one on one with the last LB with the playside DE and DT, who beat Schilling(-1) really fast, in pursuit. LB does a good job to get into Omameh at the LOS and get outside and because of the pursuit Shaw doesn't really have a cut behind him; he runs at the LB and gets tackled.
RUN+: RUN-: Schilling
O42 3 14 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Fly Hemingway Inc
Lewan(-2) beaten by the non-Kerrigan DE on a three man rush and that guy hits Robinson as he throws a deep ball to Hemingway. Resulting pass is overthrown but not really Robinson's fault; Hemingway had a step on the DB but just a step. In this situation might as well throw it up. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Lewan -2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-13, 40 second 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M17 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 Base 4-3 Pass PA rollout cross Roundtree Inc
Weird split in the Purdue LBs implies a slant with LBs filling behind but Michigan goes PA so we don't get to find out. Robinson rolls out, decides against a well-covered Grady circle, and tries to come back underneath to Roundtree. Pass is batted. Roundtree was covered and this could have been a good idea or a bad one. Hard to tell. (BA, 0, protection 1/1)
M17 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Run Hitch Roundtree 4
Playside Purdue LB is the contain guy and maintains depth on a PA fake. Roundtree's quick hitch is open but that LB is in position to tackle immediately as Purdue adjusts to a play that had flummoxed Illinois. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M21 3 6 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Pass PA rollout hitch Hemingway 6
Robinson rolls out as M goes max protect, comes off a deep route, and zings one to Hemingway about a yard short of the first. Hemingway catches it and turns it upfield for about seven yards but gets a terrible spot one inch short of the first down. He's well past the 32 when he goes out, but no review. Michigan could have/should have challenged, I guess, but spots never get overturned. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-13, 14 min 3rd Q. Hagerup MIND LASERS get Michigan the ball right back.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O32 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run Reverse Grady 13
A lovely playcall that features Lewan and Webb doing jab steps and then peeling off to get blocks on backside defenders. Webb has no one to block as the backside DE screws up and doesn't read the play but Lewan(+1) takes out the WLB. Purdue's MLB reads the play and displays impressive speed to make it a question on the corner but is a step slow; Grady(+1) gets by him and heads up the sideline. Excellent block from Stonum increases the damage. (RPS +1)
RUN+: Lewan, Grady, Stonum RUN-:
O19 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Power off tackle Smith 19
Purdue blitzes both MLBs and moves the safety up as a cleanup guy but this is seven in the box, not eight. Purdue shifts its line one way and leaves a gaping hole between the NT and Kerrigan. Lewan(+1) and Omameh(+1) double the playside DT and destroy him. The two blitzers come free up the middle but hesitate on the mesh point in case Denard keeps; he hands it off (ZR+1). Smith gets past them and runs just past a diving Kerrigan; now he's in space with Schilling leading him. Schilling(+1) picks off the designated cleanup safety and Smith(+1) subtly cuts past the charging FS, walking into the endzone.
RUN+: Robinson, Schilling, Huyge, Omameh, Smith RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown(missed XP), 20-13, 13 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone stretch Smith 0
Purdue slants its line against the stretch, which means Molk has an easy time sealing the playside DT but the playside DE slants under Lewan. Lewan does okay with this, shoving him past the play, but the POA has changed and this robs Schilling of any chance to block the playside LB, who's flying into the hole. Again, I believe this is a front possible because Purdue is running eight men at six blockers. A safety in the box is outside and absorbs Hopkins, leaving no one to get the linebacker who eventually tackles. Smith almost cut past him as Lewan had done his best to make a hole outside of him; if he does that Huyge is shoving the other LB past the play and Smith could have a big gainer. RPS -1. Picture paged.
RUN+: N/A RUN-:
M22 2 8 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 ? Pass Yakety Sax ? -11
Fumbled snap. We come to it late. Looked like the slot out was wide open, too.
M11 3 19 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Yakety Sax ? Int
Three man rush; Kerrigan comes upfield of Huyge and forces Robinson to step up in the pocket. He does. He has to dodge the NT. He does. He finds Stonum open for the first down and throws it so high that Tacopants is like "wow, that's high." A safety picks it off. (INX--the X is for XTREME, 0, protection 1/2, Huyge -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 20-13, 10 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M18 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 0
Forcier in. Omameh(-0.5) and Molk(-0.5) try to double the playside DT and don't get any push or create any creases; Huyge(-0.5) gets shoved inside by the playside DE. Kerrigan beats Lewan(-1) to the inside and when Smith tries to cut back he's swallowed.
RUN+: RUN-: Omameh, Molk, Huyge (halves), Lewan
M18 2 10 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 Nickel 4-3 Pass Scramble Forcier 7
First hitch is covered, Forcier comes off on a Smith slant that is also jumped, and now he's in scramble mode. He comes through the line and decides to pull it down quickly, running OOB after a decent gain. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
M25 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass Flare Smith Inc
Michigan runs a snag concept and gets the flare route wide open for a massive gainer -- there is no one that can stop Smith before he runs 20 yards up the sideline… but Forcier throws it way long. Sigh. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 8 min 3rd Q. Michigan put back on the five after the penalty on Gallon for not making a fair catch signal.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M5 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power dive Robinson 8
Robinson back. Michigan pulls Schilling around and attacks right upfield. Omameh(+1) crushes the playside DT off the ball. Huyge(+1) releases downfield immediately to get a linebacker and Schilling comes around to pop another linebacker and though Koger(-1) couldn't do anything with Kerrigan the good blocks from everyone else give Robinson a crease for decent yardage. Hard-filling safety takes Robinson down short of the sticks.
RUN+: Omameh, Schilling, Huyge, Robinson RUN-: Koger
M13 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 6
Looks sort of like a stretch but this is an inside zone with both DTs getting doubled. Lewan(+1) kicks out the other DE like whoah and Schilling and Molk(+0.5 each) kill the playside DT so Smith has a huge gap to hit outside. He does, and is then taken down by the filling safety. Just seven in the box this time, which gave M the window to double the DTs without getting someone killed.
RUN+: Lewan, Molk(0.5), Schilling(0.5) RUN-:
M19 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB power dive Robinson 8
Two deep and the slot blitz is threatened but not brought, so just six in the box. This time the playside DE slants outside; Huyge(+1) does a good job adjusting and Schilling(+0.5) takes his pull inside that block to blow the LB in the hole. Omameh(+1) also adjusted on the fly to wall off the DT threatening to slant under Molk. Robinson has a crease since there's no unblocked guy for the LB to funnel him to. Schilling's guy comes under him to make a diving tackle, so no full plus.
RUN+: Omameh, Huyge, Schilling(0.5) RUN-:
M27 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB stretch Robinson 9
Back to the eight man front. Backside DT gets upfield too fast and Schilling(+1) slices him to the ground with a cut block. Playside DE drives upfield of Huyge and Molk's in a stalemate with the playside DT so the cutback lane is where it's at; Robinson(+1) hits it. Lewan(+1) gets a downfield block on an MLB caught out by the move and Robinson is one block from Koger(-1) from being set free; Koger's lame cut attempt is stepped over and his safety prevents a one-on-two matchup between the FS, Robinson, and Roundtree.
RUN+: Robinson, Lewan, Schilling RUN-: Koger
M36 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Midline stretch Smith 19

DT does a good job to form up and force a handoff but he's not out of the play so he can flow down the line and cut off the inside. Robinson maybe should have kept but Lewan(-1) just ran by his LB and he's sitting in the hole unblocked, too. Smith has to go outside, where a filling safety should chop him down for no gain. Smith(+3) makes a little juke, though, and runs through the tackle attempt to the outside. No one's left and he's headed for a big gain. Um, ZR+1, RPS-1.

RUN+: Smith(3) RUN-: Lewan
O45 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power off tackle Robinson 9
Playside DT gets upfield fast and is walled off by a down-blocking Lewan(+1). Webb(-1) cannot handle Kerrigan and his downblock gets powered through, but because of the DT ownage there's a big cutback lane. Molk gets out on a linebacker and gets a shove on him, allowing Robinson to hit it upfield quickly and past that guy. Aggressive safety fill holds it down. RPS +1; this was easy pickings for Lewan.
RUN+: Lewan, Robinson, Molk RUN-: Webb
O36 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 0
Michigan successfully scoops Kerrigan, getting him sealed by Schilling. Lewan moves to the second level but can't get a block on a fast-reacting Holland, who is just screaming down the line at the snap. Not really Lewan's fault, as there was no way he could help scoop Kerrigan and get out on a linebacker moving this fast. He gets a push but the guy is right in the hole and Denard can't make a move on him, going down for nothing. Kerrigan also shoved Schilling back so far that there was no cutback lane. Good play from Purdue here. RPS -1.
RUN+: N/A RUN-:
O36 3 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB power dive Robinson 4
Omameh(+1) crushes the playside DT and one of the PU linebackers heads outside the hole despite having help; Huyge(+1) blows up the last remaining LB and Denard has an easy four yards before the safety shows up.
RUN+: Omameh, Huyge RUN-:
O32 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run Midline stretch Smith 2
Smith(-2) misses a cut here. Lewan's guy has set up outside two yards deep and the angle he has to take outside assures that he'll get run down. Inside he's got a shot if he cuts back hard because Molk's guy flowed down the line and the linebackers have gone to the frontside; the DT probably can't run him down. Koger lost Kerrigan again and he might tackle, but that would be from the side two yards downfield. ZR+1.
RUN+: RUN-: Smith(2)
O30 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Run QB stretch Robinson -2 (Pen -15)
Kerrigan does not get scooped here; Huyge(-1) and Omameh(-1) can't handle him. He fights playside and as he does so falls, taking out Huyge accidentally from behind. Slot LB hits Smith in the backfield and stands him up; nowhere to go as Michigan gets swarmed. (RPS -1) Lewan get a meaningless clip on the backside for cutting a guy, but I don't really blame him. The guy falls awkwardly but what's he supposed to do when his job is to cut the backside DT two seconds after the snap?
RUN+: RUN-: Huyge, Omameh
O45 2 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-4 Pass Fly Stonum Inc
Fly route is covered well but he's got room long and outside; ball is short and inside. Stonum gets a super bonus facemask call, too. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
O45 3 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-2-6 dime Pass Sack ?  
Come on, it's third and twenty three and you've got max pro against three rushers and you somehow let Kerrigan go single blocked? Fail. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3, team -1, Huyge -2, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 20-16, 2 min 3rd Q. Sigh.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O41 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Zone read stretch Hopkins 2
Forcier back. Molk(+1) gets an easy seal as the Purdue DT is headed upfield. This should be good but frickin' Kerrigan is occupying both Omameh(-1) and Huyge(-1), driving them back, cutting off the outside, and preventing either from getting a second level block. Huyge eventually releases but he's to the outside and two Purdue linebackers are inside; no chance. Hopkins makes the right cut. Schilling couldn't get much more than a delay on one LB and the other guy is totally free so Michigan picks up little.
RUN+: Molk RUN-: Omameh, Huyge
O39 2 8 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Pass Fade Hemingway 18
Gah, this is finally M looking to take advantage of the overly aggressive Purdue D by throwing curl/flat at the two guys to the twins side. Flat is wide open for an easy first but Forcier's like eff it and throws a fade route to Hemingway. He's got like five yards to the outside so Forcier hangs it up a little short and out there and Hemingway adjusts to grab the ball at the sidelines. Intentional given the weather? Maybe! Results based charting. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O21 1 10 Shotgun H-back 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Run Zone read keeper Forcier -4
This ends up looking like midline but I don't think it is. Purdue puts six in the box with one guy a standup DE. They slant hard away from the playside, and Forcier(ZR -1) sees a big gap between Lewan(+1), who adjusted to kick out a slanting DE, and Schilling. He keeps. It doesn't matter because Huyge(-1) and Omameh(-1) got split by Kerrigan, who eats souls as per usual. Baited into the keeper, as the handoff was right. RPS -1.
O25 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-3 Pass Fly Hemingway Inc
Excellent coverage on a quick fly route; Forcier puts it away from the DB but this is also away from the WR. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
O25 3 14 Shotgun empty 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Improv Hemingway Inc
Forcier's first read is covered and then Kerrigan comes through Huyge(-2) despite this being another three man rush. Forcier scrambles out, pumps, has no one, and tries a desperate heave to Hemingway that's almost intercepted. (BR, 0, protection 0/2, Huyge -2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(42), 20-16, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M24 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Run Power off tackle Smith 0
Kerrigan crushes Huyge(-2) back, which cuts Schilling off on his pull. Extra guy in the box means there are now two Purdue player unblocked; tackle is inevitable. (RPS -1)
M24 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 4-3 Run QB lead draw Robinson 2
Purdue all over this, getting a linebacker past Smith(-1) to make a tackle at the LOS; Robinson falls forward. RPS -1.
M26 3 8 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Sack ? -1
I'm seriously like not so much: third and eight and they're running the PA fake that pulls Schilling around and leaves Kerrigan unblocked until he gets out there. That's a lot of ground to give against a beast. Robinson steps up but heads outside, failing to read the stunt of the DT that means he should shoot upfield and scramble. He rolls himself into trouble since no one is open and when he does try to scramble he slips; Kerrigan eats him. (TA, N/A, protection 1/2, Schilling -1, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O36 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-4 Pass Scramble Forcier 4
Forcier in. Michigan goes max protect and gets Forcier a ton of time. He can't find anyone and decides to scramble out of the pocket. Still no one so he runs for a decent gain. Borderline TA/ SCR. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
O32 2 6 Shotgun 2-back 2 0 3 Base 4-3 Run Zone stretch Hopkins -2
Purdue slants under again, this time using a corner blitz as the contain guy to create another eight man front despite showing two deep. Dorrestein(-2) has checked in and completely loses Kerrigan to the inside; Molk(-1) and Schilling combine to not block the playside DT, and Omameh(-1) whiffs on a linebacker so Hopkins just gets swarmed. RPS –1.
RUN+: RUN-: Dorrestein(2), Molk, Omameh, Schilling
O34 3 8 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass Sack ? -4
Again a three man rush and Kerrigan obliterates Dorrestein(-2), coming around from the edge to get a very BG sack on Forcier. Forcier fumbles, two Purdue guys fail to dive on it, and Hopkins eventually gets it back.
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 8 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O49 1 10 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Smith 1
With bonus overhang safety for essentially a nine man front(!). Michigan doubles the playside DT and drives him back (0.5 Schilling, Molk); Omameh(-1) loses the backside guy to the inside. Smith(-1) should probably cut back and hug the backs of his OL for a decent gain but misses it and heads to the frontside, where Lewan(-0.5) did not get a good kick and there is a constricted hole. Purdue LB screwup allows Koger to hit Omameh's guy but the outside contain guy was able to hop inside Webb because of Lewan's iffy block, where he tackles with help from the DE spinning inside.
RUN+: Molk(0.5), Schilling(0.5) RUN-: Omameh, Smith, Lewan(0.5)
O48 2 9 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-5 Run Zone counter Smith 3
Designed cutback sees Omameh(+1) engage and blow up the backside DT, shoving him way out of the hole. Webb(+1) comes across to kick out Kerrigan effectively and there's a big hole. Huyge blocks a linebacker that Schilling couldn't get to because the Omameh block actually got in his way, leaving two guys to tackle Smith after a modest gain.
RUN+: Omameh, Webb RUN-:
O45 3 6 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Pass PA rollout TE seam Koger 24
Hey, finally. Michigan pairs the usual PA rollout TE-flat thing with Koger going vertical against a nine-man box and four Boiler linebacker type objects run at Denard on the edge with zero trying to cover Koger. Robinson tosses an ugly underthrown duck that still sees Koger make the catch five yards clear of any Purdue player; he turns it up for a first down and more. CA because in the situation you really really just want the completion and erring on the safe side is correct. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +2)
O21 1 10 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Run QB lead draw Robinson 2
Smith heads out of the backfield before the snap, pulling the overhang safety. Robinson looks over there but that's a decoy as he runs upfield. This is well blocked and should get a chunk of yards but for Schilling(-2) letting the DT lined up outside of him inside; this is not a tough block and it wasn't made. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) doubled the playside guy, got him way off the LOS, and then Omameh peeled to pick off a linebacker; Webb(+1) bashed another one, and this is good for a bunch but for the DT flowing down the line and forcing Robinson into Kerrigan.
RUN+: Omameh, Molk, Webb RUN-: Schilling(2)
O19 2 8 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 0
Purdue backs out a tiny bit with both safeties about eight yards off the LOS, so technically a seven man box but those safeties are in run mode still. Purdue shoots a DT directly upfield past Schilling(-1) and Lewan(-1) right into the path of the play and kills Smith at the LOS. RPS -1.
RUN+: RUN-: Lewan, Schilling
O19 3 8 Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 10
Same deal with the safeties. Molk(+1) gets across the playside DT but eventually releases him because he's expecting that Michigan will scoop him; Schilling is well behind the guy and so this just releases him. Kerrigan's shot upfield quickly, which takes out two blockers but also opens up room outside. Robinson cuts out there, getting a bump from Webb(+1) on the two DTs coming from the inside. Molk(+1 again) has gotten a great open field block on a linebacker as Omameh(+1) crushes another one to the sideline. Smith(+1) hits the safety and Robinson weaves through everything to pick up a huge first down.
RUN+: Molk(2), Robinson, Smith, Omameh, Webb RUN-:
O9 1 G Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run Inside zone Smith 3
Molk and Schilling double one DT, getting decent but not great movement(+0.5 each). Schilling pops off to cut off a guy blitzing through the B gap. The other DT steps outside so Omameh releases and Huyge(-1) can't get across him as he's passed off. Omameh gets downfield to block a guy and does okay; DT slides under to tackle after a decent gain.
RUN+: Molk(0.5), Schilling(0.5) RUN-: Huyge
O6 2 G Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-3 Run QB stretch Robinson 4
Kerrigan slides inside presnap and in doing so likely tips Omameh(+1) as to his intent; he slides inside on the snap and Omameh seals him. Schilling's trying to block the other guy and actually hits Kerrigan in such a way that he can use the momentum to spin past Omameh's block. Playside LB shoots outside, taking out both Huyge and Koger; Robinson hits the gap but maybe a little too fast because Webb is next to him. This allows a linebacker to attack unblocked; he tackles but a slight shimmy from Robinson(+1) gets him 2-3 extra yards.
RUN+: Omameh, Robinson RUN-:
O2 3 G Shotgun 2H 1 2 2 Base 4-4 Run Inside zone Hopkins 3
Plowing forward here. Lewan kicks out Kerrigan as all four other linemen head straight upfield. Molk and Schilling(+1 each) batter a DT into the endzone. The other DT stunts outside. Omameh(+1) plugs the guy moving into the vacated space; a linebacker tries to shoot the gap between the DT block and Omameh and can't because there's not enough room; he trips to the ground, and Hopkins just has to run up the back of the crushed DT for an easy touchdown.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 27-16, 1 min 4th Q. Functional EOG.

This definitely didn't mean anything.

Why so?

Because it hurts my heart.

Ah so. It wasn't that bad considering, you know.

Considering what? 27 points against Purdue? I had to go to the doctor. I have an EKG. The doctor comes up to me and says I'm looking at your—

CHART!

Damn you.

Chart.

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR ZR DSR
2009, All Of It 1 7 6(2) 3(1) 4 4 - - ? - 44%
UConn 2 15(6) - - 3 2 - - 2 - 68%
Notre Dame 3 25(8) 3(1) 4 1 - 4(1) 2 - - 71%
UMass 4 10(3) - 1 1 - 1 1 - - 73%
BGSU 1 4(1) - - - - - - - 1/1 N/A
Indiana 2 8(2) 1(1) 5(1) - - - - - 9/11 66%
Michigan State 4 14(3) 1 7(1) 1 - - 2 2 N/A 68%
Iowa 1 11(3) 2 3(1) 2 - 1 - - 3/4 64%
Penn State 3 12(3) 1 4 2 - 1 - - 6/10 63%
Illinois 4 9(1) 1 4 1 3 1(1) - - 3/4 60%
Purdue 2 12(1) 1 3 1 1 1 3 - 8/10 68%

TATE FORCIER

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR ZR DSR
Iowa 3 14 1 2 4 - - 1 1 N/A 74%
Illinois 2 11 - - 2 3 - - 1 3/4 72%
Purdue 1 - 1 1 1 - - - 2 N/A N/A

Robinson wasn't bad overall but when he was bad he was disastrously so. He's got one IN and one BR but those were full on Brawndo INX and BRX—THE X IS FOR XTREME—passes, the two brutal interceptions that led directly to 10 of Purdue's 16 points. Both came in long yardage situations where Purdue was actually playing pass defense and both had open receivers. On the pick six Robinson came off his first read, an open deep slant by Hemingway, in favor of Roundtree underneath and did that thing we talked about last week where he throws a ball to the right spot a second too late. This time it was a smaller window and a later throw so a linebacker got a finger on it and a safety looked like the intended recipient. On the other interception he had to scramble around because Kerrigan was set loose on a play where Michigan went max protect against a three man rush*, this time found Stonum for first down yardage, and zinged it five feet above his head. It was the most Tacopants throw of the year for him.

The frustrating thing about that first interception are the two passes that preceded it. One was the beautiful touch lob for Webb:

Two was a second-read zinger to Roundtree with three guys in his face:

Wow! Wow! Wow, but in the totally opposite sense!

*(This happened like three times and every time I got so mad but if you go back to last year, how many times did Brandon Graham do that exact same thing? A dozen, probably. So this is not a thing unique to M. You can threaten blitz and get your beastly DE singled up without rushing more than three.)

So you're saying…

Not much. I don't put a ton of stock into the second interception since that's not the kind of thing we've seen from him and it was likely a rain thing. The second one was a pattern last week and now it killed a scoring drive and is a level two pattern with extra hitpoints.

Other persons of interest?

The receivers came back to boring after a schizophrenic game against Illinois:

  This Game   Totals
Player 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Stonum - - 0/1 1/1 9 2/7 7/12 19/19
Odoms : ( - - - 1 1/1 3/4 11/11
Hemingway 3 0/1 1/1 3/3 7 3/4 4/6 22/26
Stokes - - - - - - 1/2 -
Roundtree 1 - - 5/6 11 2/3 5/8 31/34
Grady - - - - 4 1/1 3/3 8/9
T. Robinson - - - - - 0/1 - 2/3
Gallon - - - - 1 - - 4/4
                 
Koger - - - 2/2 - - 2/3 9/9
Webb - - - 1/1 2 - - 4/5
                 
Smith 1 - - - 3 - 0/2 12/12
Shaw - - - - 1 0/1 0/1 5/6
McColgan - - - - - - - 1/1
Hopkins - - - - - - - -
Toussaint - - - - - - - -

Just one drop, that on Michigan's first drive when it was dry, and few opportunities for anything magical. For the second week straight Hemingway displayed a crazy knack for breaking tackles and picking up YAC despite being built like a dump truck, and that was about the only interesting thing that happened to the receivers.

Okay, so the passing game sucked—weather, etc. But what about the runs?

Earlier in the week I said Michigan averaged 4.3 YPC once you take out sacks, but I forgot to take out Lewan's 11 yard fumble fun run and I think I divided by the wrong denominator, so your new baseline to ballpark the overall effectiveness of these metrics is 4.0 YPC. That's not good. The NCAA average is 4.3 before you take out sacks. When you do, the average jumps to 4.9. That's optimistic for any individual game since those numbers take cupcakes into account and… oh let's just save ourselves a bunch of time and point out that Michigan's run performance against Purdue was two points better than an average team. I'm still calibrating this metric but I'd like it to correspond to that number, so we should see Michigan come out only slightly above average on… er… average.

To the--

Chart!

Chart.

Offensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Huyge 7 10.5 -3.5 Major problems with Kerrigan, and some with the other DE.
Lewan 8 9.5 -1.5 Had serious issues with the slanting. Also Kerrigan.
Schilling 8 9 -1 Usually had the much tougher matchup against Short.
Molk 15 6.5 8.5 Another series of good reach blocks but some were easy because of the Purdue calls.
Omameh 16.5 7.5 9 Thought he did well as Purdue played into his strengths by giving him releases much of the day
Khoury - - - DNP
Dorrestein - 2 -2 Kerrigan.
Webb 3 1 2 The usual
Koger 1 3 -2 Also the usual.
TOTAL 58.5 49 9.5 Worst day o the year by a considerable—OH GOD NOT KERRIGA—
Backs
Player + - T Notes
Robinson 7 1 6 Limited opportunities to actually make yards, but made them..
Gardner - - - DNP
Forcier - - - Didn't score here.
Shaw - - - Left early.
Smith 9 4 5 Another good day but man I wish he broke more tackles.
Cox - - - DNP
Toussaint - - - Like three snaps.
Hopkins 1 1 0 Limited by footing.
McColgan - - - DNP.
Jones - - - DNP
TOTAL 17 6 11 Somewhat quiet day because opportunities were rarer due to blocking whatnot.
Receivers
Player + - T Notes
Stonum 1 - 1 --
Odoms - - - --
TRobinson - - - --
Roundtree 1 - 1 Throw this man a screen?
Grady 1 - 1 --
Gallon - - - --
Hemingway - - - --
TOTAL 3 - 3 --
Metrics

The other bit that needs to show up here to get the full picture is Rock Paper Scissors, which I had at 9 – 21 = –12. That's a really, really big, bad number. I said earlier in the week it's because Michigan kept hurling itself at cover zero overloaded boxes. I get why it happened,  but it happened.

So… that seems about right from a holistic standpoint. OL slightly positive but essentially a stalemate, positive but not outstanding day from the tailbacks, poor/restricted playcalling drives the YPC down.

Individually, I don't have to explain what happened to the tackles. His name is Ryan Kerrigan and he is 2010 Brandon Graham and he's a holy lock for this blog's completely symbolic and meaningless DPOY award. Jesus. Ryan Kerrigan. On the interior, I think that's because Purdue usually undershifted its line and left Omameh free to head downfield and pop guys, which he's good at; in other instances he got to double the freshman NT as Schilling tried to cope with a very good three-tech in Kawaan Short.

So are we getting back to preseason Vincent Smith excitement levels?

I'm always going to wish he was faster or bigger so he could break more tackles, and before the season I thought he was faster, so no. I am getting behind him as a consistent contributor as a third-down guy and change of pace back even after Dee Hart arrives to make the Michigan backfield a crowded place. He made about 30 yards on his own against Purdue, getting tough yards inside a couple times and delivering two subtle hesitation moves that slid him past defenders, turning zero yards into 20 and ten into a touchdown. If Michigan goes away from running back by committee in the next two years it won't be because he's locked down all the carries, but he's a reason that's not likely to happen.

Heroes?

Smith, for chugging along in terrible conditions. Molk for being Michigan's most consistent lineman.

Goats?

Considerably mitigated by their opponent but both tackles got worked. Robinson had three crippling turnovers on a day when he didn't make up for it in other ways.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and beyond?

If the Badgers go with eight in the box and it rains they're not going anywhere.

But seriously folks, JJ Watt is probably the other DE who ends up first team All Big Ten despite the existence of Adrian Clayborn and if he does what Kerrigan did, Michigan is in trouble. If he does half of what Kerrigan did Michigan is in trouble. Hopefully the field conditions had something to do with Michigan's struggles—we did see a Huyge/Lewan tag team mostly erase Clayborn—and they will bounce back Saturday. This is only a possibility.

Denard has to stop turning the ball over. This is analysis that could come from Chris Martin, but seriously at this point the main problem with the Michigan offense is Denard fumbling and throwing picks. At this point you have to expect at least one turnover from him a game. This isn't something that's likely to get fixed in the next two weeks. True sophomore and all that.

side note: 10k words again.

Picture Pages: More Throwing Rock

Picture Pages: More Throwing Rock

Submitted by Brian on November 18th, 2010 at 12:04 PM

[Sorry about the delay. Internet issues this morning.]

To continue a theme on Michigan's suddenly mediocre run game: dude, it was all Purdue's cover zero approach. Here's a play that's beautifully blocked all around and still ends up with meh results. It's Michigan's final drive of the first half; the Wolverines have the ball first and ten on their own 43.

Standard three wide from Michigan; Purdue moves their nickelback over the slot receiver and has their safeties in that no-mans-land between deep and shallow:

 stretch-wha-1

By the snap they're still in that shallow range; the deeper guy is only seven yards off the LOS—that's where WVU's stack keeps its middle linebacker. Michigan's going to run a stretch:

 stretch-wha-2

As usual the key block is the one in the center of the field, where Schilling and Molk are working to seal the playside DT. you can see above that the playside DE is not slanting inside this time and will get kicked out. Michigan is doing something weird, though: they are blocking the backside end. They've done this a lot this year but in almost all cases they've done it on inside zone plays where a cutback is one of the main ways to gain yards. On a stretch this guy is usually set free to fruitlessly chase.

At the mesh point Robinson gets contain from the safety no jk lol linebacker and hands off. Molk has already gotten across the playside DT, who is dead:

stretch-wha-3

That is a dead DT. With Lewan getting a kickout Smith will have a hole to cut into. Schilling releases downfield and gets a good block on the playside LB; Koger heads outside and pulls the other safety no jk lol lb with him. Hurray yards?

Yes, but issue in the middle of the field wearing #45:

stretch-wha-4

This linebacker is the guy Huyge would have released into if he wasn't blocking Kerrigan. He's totally unblocked and can run down the line as Smith zooms past dead DT and Omameh drives the backside guy yards downfield; Schilling and Koger have picked up eliminating blocks on the other LBs.

stretch-wha-5

Through the hole, Smith is one on one with the LB…

stretch-wha-6

…who tackles.

stretch-wha-7

The end result is a play where all six Michigan offensive linemen get blocks between good and great… and Michigan gets six yards.

Video:

Object lesson type objects:

  • Generic stretch stuff. This is another example of how the stretch usually works when it works: Molk seals that DT, Lewan kicks the DE, Schilling releases into a linebacker, a lead blocker takes another one outside, and running back hits a big gap.
  • Cover zero problem reinforcement. In this particular instance blocking that backside end is a bad idea, but with eight guys in the box Michigan knows they'll leave contain to a safety and send Kerrigan tearing down the line. If Smith has to cut behind Molk he will be swallowed at the LOS. There's a nonzero chance Kerrigan manages to grab Smith from behind even if the blocking plays out like this. Michigan has a choice between leaving the MLB free or leaving a guy they know will crash down the LOS free. In this particular instance getting a block on the MLB, even a crappy-push-by-the-RB-forcing-a-cutback block, is a touchdown unless Smith gets run down from behind.

    The fundamental math is still the same: there is going to be an unblocked guy in the box and Purdue can slant and shift its defense in an effort to get the ballcarrier to an unblocked guy. On the previous example Purdue did this effectively; here they hang on by the skin of their teeth but do get it done.

  • Weather allows cover zero. BWS did a post on Michigan's only successful gotcha play, the fourth quarter completion to Kevin Koger that jump-started Michigan's final touchdown drive and was so wide open Denard could throw a wobbly underthrown duck and still have it easily complete. The pass on that play and about a dozen other hilariously misthrown balls by all four quarterbacks goes a long way towards justifying Michigan's resignation to pounding its head into the wall repeatedly. I'm sure Michigan won't do this again—not that they'll have an opportunity against Wisconsin and Ohio State, two teams that won't run cover zero much if at all.

Upon Further Review 2010: Defense vs Purdue

Upon Further Review 2010: Defense vs Purdue

Submitted by Brian on November 17th, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Formation notes: Against a bad spread rushing attack Michigan went with the stack most of the game, with occasional changeups to a slanting four-man front and extremely rare eight man fronts as Michigan spent the entire day in a two deep for the first time in a while. They got away with this despite not having Martin or Mouton, but I don't think that will hold up against non-Purdue offenses.

This got pulled out occasionally. It's more of a 3-4 look with the stack linebackers pulled to the strong side and Gordon coming down from his position over the slot:

3-3-5 something

When Michigan moved that DE inside to be a three-tech I called this "4-3 light".

Substitution notes: Mostly Patterson with some Sagesse at NT. Black and Banks got spot duty replacing Roh and RVB at DE. Demens went the whole way at MLB with Ezeh, Moundros, and Fitzgerald rotating through the OLB spots. Cam Gordon got almost all the time at spur with a few plays from Johnson; the secondary was Rogers/Avery/Vinopal/Kovacs the whole way.

Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 PA scramble Van Bergen 3
Siller at QB with Henry the I-back. Woo Purdue 2010. Not sure what to call the formation as it's a 3-3-5 that slides the linebackers to the strong side and has Fitz on the line as a standup DE next to Roh. I'm just going with stack. Van Bergen(+1, pressure +1) reads the rollout and gets upfield of the pulling guard, forcing Siller back inside. He then threatens to sack and Siller has to scramble. It looks like he might get five before Roh and Kovacs converge; he pulls up lame and falls about three yards downfield.
O28 2 7 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   Midline keeper Gordon 6
I can't tell if this is midline or if they just set Roh free. Probably midline. Roh attacks the tailback and that seems to be the right play because M has more players to the QB run and does not want this going backside. Patterson successfully fights inside of his blocker, the playside guard, and I think that's right too because this forces Henry outside where Gordon and Vinopal are with just one blocker. Gordon(-1) needs to attack this hard one way or the other but hesitates, throwing a lame shoulder into the blocker two yards downfield and allowing Henry a lane inside. Demens and Vinopal converge to tackle just short of the sticks.
O34 3 1 Shotgun empty 3-3-5 stack Run   Jet sweep reverse Kovacs? 0
Jet sweep to a reverse that catches Michigan because RVB(-1) did not read the play and flowed down the line too close to the LOS. Moundros is also gone to the frontside but I think he has to be. This could get some major yards but as Henry comes back to block RVB he hits the runner, robbing him of his momentum and allowing Kovacs to come up. Kovacs(-0.5, tackling -1) misses the tackle but the cavalry has arrived.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q. Lucky break there.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O36 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Patterson 2
Michigan clearly not afraid of Henry throwing as they run a corner blitz, something I don't think they've done all year. Avery has backside contain so Roh can slide down the line hard, getting inside of the backside blocker, a FB, and erasing cutback lanes. Patterson(+1) gets doubled and manages to hold up okay. He chucks the guy going playside, hurling him off balance. This allows Demens(+0.5) to fill unmolested for an easy tackle. RPS+1.
O38 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass   PA rollout out Rogers Inc
Kovacs rolls up and the LBs are shifted over so this is more of a 3-4 look. Purdue runs a rollout pass that Ezeh(+0.5) cuts off the outside on, forcing a throw. This is a receiver well-covered by Rogers, and while the throw is upfield it kind of has to be because Rogers(+2, cover +2) appears to break this up despite the upfieldness of the throw. Huh.
O38 3 8 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   QB draw Avery 8
Patterson(-0.5) gets shoved way out of the hole, opening up a difficult amount of space. Moundros(+1) actually gets outside a block quickly and forces a bounce outside, where Avery(-1) got too far inside to string the play out appropriately and Kovacs(-0.5) can't arrive at the right angle to tackle Henry straight on, possibly halting him before he picks up the two yards he needs here.
O46 1 10 Shotgun 2-back TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Inverted power veer Banks 2 + 15 pen
Line blocks down except for the playside DE, who kicks out Fitzgerald, and the backside G, who pulls around to block Banks. Banks(+1) reads the pull and does not shoot down the line as expected, instead changing course to block the lead blocker. Ezeh flows up on the RB fake, Henry keeps, and his hole is constricted because of Banks and Demens(+0.5); Banks comes off to tackle after a short gain but grabs a facemask, drawing a call. Good play otherwise.
M36 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 4-3 Light Run   Inside zone Banks 1
Michigan shifts its line down as Ezeh rolls up into a standup DE position; Banks slides in to be a three tech and this is a 4-3 under line with two LBs behind it and Gordon flexed over a slot receiver. This catches Purdue, allowing Banks(+1) to slant under the RG instantly. He's drawing two guys and not even getting blocked. A cutback must happen; Ezeh(+0.5) has flowed down the line to tackle with an assist from Purdue's LT. RPS+1.
M35 2 9 I-form big 4-3 Light Pass N/A PA rollout hitch Demens 7
Blitz up the middle from Moundros; pocket rolls and Michigan rolls with it. Ezeh(+0.5) hits the edge and cuts off the rollout, forcing a pullup and an uncomfortable throw for Robinson. Demens(-0.5) was in good position but actually got ahead of the TE a bit so a throw behind the guy is makeable and made; Demens does tackle immediately.
M27 3 2 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   Inverted power veer Roh -5
This must be a missed assignment or a missed read or maybe just a terrible playcall they needed to get out of but didn’t, because Roh(+1) is totally unblocked and can tear upfield at the exchange point, nailing the RB as he gets the ball and forcing a fumble. If Robinson kept he was going to get destroyed by a blitzing Ezeh(+1), who flew past a tackle too quickly to react, and a blitzing Gordon. Ball hits the turf and Gordon(+1) has the presence of mind to scoop and score. RPS+3--very hard for a D to get a +3, but this play was a guaranteed five yard loss in the best case scenario for Purdue with a serious danger of worse.
Drive Notes: Defensive TD, 7-0, 9 min 1st Q. Announcer exclaims "he's got a chance!" as Gordon crosses the 15 with no Purdue guy within 10 yards. Ya think?
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O20 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   QB power off tackle Banks 4
Johnson in at spur—I thought he was a deep safety now? Purdue has the TE block down on Banks and pulls the two guys inside around. RB means three lead blockers. Banks(+1) gets outside the downblock, which is good because Demens(-1) sucked way up on an end-around fake and is gone. If this breaks through the line it's a big gain. Fitz(+0.5) gets outside a tackle, forcing Henry to bounce it all the way out; Johnson takes a double and ends up falling, allowing a cutback lane; Rogers and Kovacs converge for a tackle.
O24 2 6 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 nickel Run   Down G stretch Demens 14
Or something? I don’t know if a good run offense can do this because you never rep any individual play enough to make it a base but lord Purdue does a lot of stuff on the ground. It's fun to watch even if it never does anything. Here the Purdue line blocks down as Michigan runs the same slant they did to get a one-yard gain on the previous play. Slant usually means linebackers flowing the other way to pickup cutbacks; here Demens(-2) pulls an Ezeh and sits. Purdue pulls a guard around, another tip for Demens to GTFO, but the C can just roll downfield and get a block on him--there's no way this should happen, Demens should be playside of the C easily. He gets crushed and there's a huge gap that's taken for a first down.
O38 1 10 Shotgun trips TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Down G Demens? 4 (Pen -15)
What is Demens doing? Here it's a simple stretch that he's seen a million times before and instead of flowing hard he hops upfield of the guy attempting to block him. He's gone. Black(-0.5) is effectively sealed by the downblock. Moundros(+0.5) comes up to whack the pulling G and forces it inside, catching Kovacs(-0.5) coming too far outside and Demens in nowhereville, except... Demens ran down the line like a mother and actually helps tackle? Gah. I had a minus for him but am forced to erase it. I don't understand what happens here at all. Sagesse is chopped, anyway.
O23 1 25 I-form 4-3 Light Pass 5 Screen Inc
Blitz; Moundros was in the area of the screen but it looks like if the QB just calms down and throws an open pass this is a good chunk. No RPS- because it's first and twenty five.
O23 2 25 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Draw Patterson -1
A draw play to Rob Henry. Sure. Patterson(+1) takes a momentary double, then fights inside his blocker instead of getting way out of the middle of the field. This forces a bounce. Demens(+1) fills the next hole, leaving Henry on the edge with Johnson(+1), who makes a solid tackle(+1) on the edge.
O22 3 26 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 nickel Pass 3 TE out 6
Give up and punt. Two tacklers in the area (cover +1).
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O36 1 10 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Down G Roh 3
Man, Purdue seems to chop block again, this time on Patterson. Roh(+1) does a good job of refusing the down block and holding his guy at the LOS. Kovacs cuts off the corner and Moundros(+1) hits the pulling G in the hole. Moundros and Roh close the hole off with their bodies as the RB enters, creating a pile. OL shoving pushes it forward.
O33 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Roh 5
Roh(-1) slants under the tackle like whoah but takes an angle too far upfield and instead of murdering the play he lets it playside; LBs are shifted backside and waiting for a cutback so Purdue has room. Demens takes on a block that he's got no chance of defeating; Vinopal(-0.5) fills w/ help from Ezeh pursuit, but not that well.
O38 3 2 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 Light Run   Zone read keeper Van Bergen? 26
This is a bust on someone's part as RVB flows down the line and Ezeh hits it up inside, no scrape. I find this incredibly frustrating since this keeps happening in every game and it is never clear whose error it is. Henry is clean into the secondary for a big gainer. RPS -2, RVB -2 because my default is that the DE is the guy.
M36 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 4-3 Light Run   Inside zone Demens 27
Henry again except this time as a tailback. Michigan moves the LBs before the snap, sending Moundros into the line as a blitzer and having Roh tear after the QB to force a handoff. Demens(-2) has help to the outside in the form of Roh and is totally unblocked but wanders to the backside of the play and is in no position to tackle. It looks like they're using Moundros as a blitzer because they don't trust him in space and would like to get all their guys single blocked, allowing Demens to read and tackle. Here Moundros stands his guy up at the line and funnels it back at Demens and he's just not there. Vinopal(-2) whiffs a tackle, turning 15 into 27. (tackling -2)
M9 1 G Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 Light Run   Zone stretch Roh 4
Michigan stunting Roh and Sagesse; Roh(-0.5) bumps Sagesse as he slants inside, delaying him and opening up a crease. The stunt does pick off a pulling guard and get Demens a free run at the hole, which he takes, tackling; Moundros(-0.5) got kicked out too far and gave the RB room to build up momentum before the contact.
M5 2 G Shotgun 2-back 4-3 Light Run   QB lead draw Roh -1
Michigan stunts and gets both Fitzgerald(+1) and Roh(+1) in the hole. One blocker, two guys, no screwup, good play. (RPS +1)
M6 3 G Shotgun trips TE bunch 4-3 Light Pass 4 TE cross Johnson 3
Robinson has time but does not let his routes develop, chucking a quick TE cross that Johnson(+1, cover +1) is in position to tackle on immediately.
Drive Notes: FG, 14-3, EO1Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O26 1 10 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Delay Sagesse 6
Delay sees a backside tackle pull around as Sagesse is doubled. Moundros and Demens get outside of blockers, funneling it back to help that never comes because Ezeh got cut off by a center peeling off Sagesse(-1). Excellent example of why you need your nose to demand a double in this D.
O32 2 4 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Power dive Van Bergen -1
Van Bergen(+1) slants inside the tackle and picks off a pulling guard. Sagesse swam through a double and managed to hold his ground okay, though he's still getting blocked a yard downfield. Demens and Ezeh are in the area and convince the RB to bounce. Gordon(+0.5) has set up in the right spot so there's no hole and Ezeh(+1) is unblocked but read the play quickly to make a tackle at the LOS.
O31 3 5 Shotgun 4-wide tight 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Hitch Ezeh Inc
Robinson drops back and throws a quick hitch into an eight man coverage that Ezeh(+1) bats down. This is a super easy breakup as Robinson stares down his WR and Ezeh barely has to move to get the PBU, so no +2 this time. (cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-3, 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M45 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 6 Bubble screen? Inc
Michigan sends the house as Dierking motions from the slot into the backfield, and Purdue throws a… something. I think it was supposed to be a bubble screen but the two receivers went downfield and seemed to be blocking. That's fine for the outside guy, but not so much the slot.
M45 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Down G Moundros 15
Just six in the box but M blitzes Avery to provide a seventh. TE blocks down on Roh and two OL pull around. Avery(+0.5) does a good job to come up quickly and get outside of one a yard in the backfield, constricting a hole. Moundros(-2) can fill it by himself if he takes on a block in the right spot but runs way too far outside and actually bashes into the Avery block, giving Dierking a big lane just past the outstretched arm of a spinning Roh. Demens didn't flow down the line because he saw a big cutback lane caused by Patterson(-1) getting cut and hit that. I'm not sure if that's good or bad. Kovacs has to get outside a WR to force it back to Vinopal; Vinopal(+0.5) closes and tackles(+1).
M30 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Roh 0
Roh(+2) can't quite slant under the Purdue tackle trying to block him but does get him pushing really hard to get his helmet across. He responds by chucking the lineman past him, coming under, and pounding Dierking at the LOS. Patterson(+0.5) and RVB(+0.5) had cut off the frontside, forcing the cutback.
M30 2 10 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Patterson 1
Michigan comes out in a 4-4 cover zero and checks into the stack after Purdue checks. Patterson(+1) takes a double and holds up; Demens(+0.5) hits the hole quickly and meets the peeling C at the LOS; Moundros(+0.5) is unblocked and tackles at the LOS. Multiple Purdue linemen were wandering around wondering who to block after the check. RPS +1
M29 3 9 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Improv Avery Inc
Robinson has forever and a day in the pocket but can't find anyone (cover +2) and eventually has to roll out as Roh comes free. Pressure only -1 because RVB got a holding call… eventually. Robinson rolls out and throws a bad idea to the sideline that Avery(+1, cover +1) is all over. He should really intercept but it's a little low and it falls to the turf. Hooray freshman QB.
Drive Notes: FG(46), 14-13, 4 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O31 1 10 I-form 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Screen Inc
Overthrown. Outcome unknown if on target.
O31 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Tunnel screen Van Bergen 4
Van Bergen(+1) reads the screen when the offensive lineman Olé! blocks him and comes from behind to tackle with some help from Demens.
O35 3 6 I-form twins 4-3 Light Run   Delay Avery 0
Late move to a four man line. Roh(+1) gets under his blocker and refuses to be down-blocked as Avery tears off the corner on a blitz. Patterson(+1) gets playside of his blocker, forcing a cutback into Roh; Avery(+1) tackles from behind.
Drive Notes: EOH, 14-13. Hail Mary not charted.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O34 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Inside zone Fitzgerald 5
I'm not sure what the Purdue OL are attempting to do but I think it's scoop the two playside DL. They get neither, so +0.5 Patterson and RVB. RB has to bounce; he can because a hesitant Fitzgerald(-1) got hit by a TE a yard downfield instead of at the LOS or in the backfield and the RB has a lane outside. Gordon closes it down and Demens scrapes from the inside to help.
O39 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass N/A Bubble screen Vinopal 2
This is less a bubble than just a slot screen since the WR is standing instead of orbiting outside. Michigan blitzes from the playside so it's Vinopal(+2, tackling +1) one-on-one with the WR. He attacks, gets in the right spot, forms up, forces the WR inside, and sees his tackle attempt almost run through but not quite; WR goes down for two and even if he stayed up Kovacs was going to light him up.
O41 3 3 Shotgun 2-back 4-3 Light Run   QB draw Van Bergen -2
Yakety sax from Purdue as McBurse does not get the play call and goes for a mesh point with Henry. They bump and there's no lead blocker. I don't think it would have mattered because RVB(+2) slanted under the OG in a flash and was either going to destroy McBurse and force Henry into an unblocked Gordon or just destroy Henry. RPS+1.
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-13, 11 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M24 1 10 I-form 4-3 Light Run   Iso Roh 6 (Pen -8)
I can't tell who this is on. Michigan stunts its DTs, which isn't relevant. The relevant bit: Roh slants hard under the strongside tackle, which leaves a TE and FB with great angles to block Demens and Gordon. If Roh was supposed to do this the linebackers need to flow hard behind him to pick up the slack on the strongside. They don't. There's two of them and one of Roh so I think it's on him(-1). Demens should still get outside the TE and has an opportunity to do so but doesn't, so the RB can zip off tackle quickly. This is dangerous but Vinopal(+1, tackling +1) fills quickly and makes a solid tackle to hold the gain down. He's pretty good when he's taking on guys his size. Problem: he is tiny. Play comes back on a holding call on the guy blocking Demens, so he avoids a minus.
M32 1 18 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Throwback TE screen Moundros 9
Moundros(+1) reads it and shoots out into the play. He can't make the tackle but he does suck up a blocker and force the play inside. With a TE four yards behind the LOS and no blockers that should be a win. He's got some room; Avery forms up to force him into Ezeh(-1, tackling -1), who does tackle but lets the TE inside off him and turns five yards into nine.
M23 2 9 I-form 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Wheel of doom Moundros Inc
There are people vaguely in the area code this week but Moundros(-2, cover -2) is at least five yards away from the tailback and probably can't prevent a TD if ball is accurate. Ball is not, it's short and outside. Ezeh(+1, pressure +1) came up hard and made life difficult. Still RPS -1.
M23 3 9 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Rollout throwaway Ezeh Inc
Purdue rolls away from the pocket; no one immediately open (cover +1). Ezeh(+2) avoids a cut block, keeps his feet, gets outside the pulling guard, and shoots up to sack Robinson, except Robinson chucks the ball out of bounds at the last second. (Pressure +2.)
Drive Notes: FG(40), 20-16, 9 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O36 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   Zone read keeper Kovacs 12
Kovacs(-2) is rolling up to the LOS and must be the contain guy with the LBs sticking inside; Black is blocked on the backside. He sucks inside, lets Henry outside, and gives up a big gain.
O48 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 Light Pass N/A Long handoff Inc
Dropped.
O48 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   TGDCD 8
That Goddamned Counter Draw. Avery(-1) is blitzing to the eventual playside and Purdue's WR lined up over him actually drives down to block him, and does so effectively. Have not seen that before. Moundros(+0.5) finds himself in space and can cut past OL to force a bounce but with Avery both inside and blocked the corner's open; RB takes it until Kovacs comes up to make an okay tackle. RPS -1, but I'm not mad, just impressed with the little adjustment from Purdue.
M44 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Fade Avery Inc
Check from 4-3 to stack after a Purdue check. Avery(-1, cover -1) beaten on a fade route that must have had a double move because he gets shook like whoah; ball is way overthrown.
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O46 1 10 I-form twins 3-3-5 stack Run   Iso Demens 2
Deception on this play as it looks like Purdue is down-blocking and sending players to the frontside but the path of the RB is straight upfield. Given the blocking if Demens(+1) doesn't fall for it the play is dead; he doesn't and attacks unblocked to tackle at the LOS. Ezeh(+0.5) took on the FB and came off to help, as well. BTW: possible this is a Purdue bust.
O48 2 8 Shotgun 2TE twins 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Sack Johnson -2
First read covered(+1) and then Ezeh(+0.5) is out on the corner, forcing more scrambling outside. Robinson decides to take off; Johnson(+1) fills nicely to bang him out of bounds for a sack(!) short of the sticks. Pressure +1.
O46 3 10 Shotgun trips TE 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Yakety sax Rogers Int
Rollout to the trips. Van Bergen(+1) is immediately upfield and gets outside the RB's attempted chop. He's also outside the pulling G. Robinson slows up and then heads to the sideline as RVB gets smashed to the ground by the G. Roh(+1) has spun past the other tackle and is now charging from behind. As he's about to sack Robinson runs up; Ezeh(+0.5) fills and Robinson chucks it directly at James Rogers(+1, cover +1), who intercepts. Not so good. Pressure +2.
Drive Notes: Interception, 20-16, 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O26 1 10 Shotgun trips TE 3-3-5 stack Run   Pin and pull zone Moundros 3
Playside TE blocks down on Roh and the entire left side of the line pulls. Moundros(+1) shoots up into the play and takes a double from the pullers; Kovacs fills and gets help from Patterson(+0.5), who bounced off a cut attempt and flowed down the line to prevent YAC.
O29 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 5 Hitch Gordon 9
Gordon's actually blitzing here and his issue is getting cut to the ground(-1, pressure -1) as the part of the five man rush that gets a free run at the tailback. He's out, and this opens up a guy on the sidelines between Vinopal and Rogers (cover -1).
O38 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Down G Patterson 2
They block down on Black and get him(-0.5), pulling two guys around and shooting a lineman off Patterson and at Demens immediately. This is tough for M because Moundros has to run out to get the outside shoulder of one lead blocker and Demens is getting shoved past the play by the immediate release of the C. Purdue's banking on getting Patterson out of the play, then. Reasonable, and wrong. Patterson(+1) again bounces off the cut and flows down the line to tackle thanks to the good Moundros(+1) fill and forced inside cutback.
O40 2 8 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 TE Hitch Inc
Five yard route zinged five yards wide.
O40 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Screen Moundros 5
Moundros(+1) is on top of it, shooting past one of the releasing blockers and getting tackled. He draws a flag. Avery(+0.5) is also there to attack at the LOS. His tackle(-1) is run through but does delay Dierking quite a bit, allowing three Wolverines to rally and tackle.
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 12 min 4th Q. Hagerup's 72-yard bomb precedes the next drive.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O3 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass N/A Long handoff Avery 39
Avery(-3, tackling -3) completely whiffs on a simple WR screen, turning five or six yards into many many yards.
O42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Run   Yakety sax -6
Aaaand Purdue fumbles it right back without a single Michigan player breathing on anyone. Thanks, dude.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 20-16, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O20 1 10 Shotgun 2-back 3-3-5 stack Run   Triple option pitch Moundros 0
Henry pitches way too fast and does not eliminate Moundros(+1), so Moundros runs out to the edge and forces the pitch guy back inside of him, where five Wolverines gang-tackle. More bad play from Purdue than anything awesome M did.
O20 2 10 Shotgun trips TE 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Flare Avery 1
Nowhere to go on a three man rush(cover +2) so Henry checks down to a covered Dierking, who is again gang tackled after bouncing off Avery.
O21 3 9 Shotgun trips bunch 3-3-5 stack Pass 3 Scramble Patterson 1
Michigan gets a stunt to work as Roh drives into the middle of the line and Patterson(+1) loops around to pressure(+1) Henry. He starts scrambling around; Patterson peels back and engages behind the LOS; pile falls forward, robbing him of a sack. Que sera.
Drive Notes: Punt, 20-16, 6 min 4th Q. Purdue's funny/sad final drive is not charted.

So did that mean anything?

No. Let's just get that out of the way. No, it did not mean anything. Purdue's offense has now scored 19 meaningful points over the last four weeks and while OSU, Illinois, and Wisconsin all have much better defenses than Michigan so many of the stops Michigan got were Purdue shooting itself in the face that it's impossible to tell if anything got better in a real sense.

If you look at the—

Chart.

Chart, you'll see this in numbers:

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Van Bergen 7 3 4 May have been unfairly blamed for the big Henry keeper.
Martin - - - DNP
Banks 3 - 3 Did well in limited time.
Sagesse - 1 -1 Ceded most of his time to Patterson for a reason.
Patterson 7.5 1.5 6 !!! Happy to see him get a start and he did legitimately well with it.
Black - 1 -1 No pass rush necessary so ate bench.
Roh 7 2.5 4.5 Good day.
TOTAL 24.5 9 15.5 Fine day given a limited number of plays and only three guys.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Ezeh 8.5 1.5 7 Very effective containing rollouts.
Mouton - - - DNP
C. Gordon 1.5 2 -0.5 Has absorbed the tao of spur.
T. Gordon - - - DNP
Johnson 3 - 3 Played spur. Please stop moving these people back and forth it annoys my charts.
Leach - - - DNP
Moundros 8.5 4.5 4 Got lost on a wheel of doom, effective against the run.
Demens 4 5 -1 Lost on a couple of big Purdue runs.
Herron - - - DNP
Fitzgerald 1.5 1 0.5 Limited playing time.
TOTAL 27 14 13 Holy OLB play when they never have to defend the pass, Batman.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Floyd - - - DNP
Rogers 3 - 3 One legit breakup, one INT thrown into his chest.
Kovacs - 3.5 -3.5 Removed from the run game and when he showed up had some iffy tackles.
Talbott - - - DNP.
Christian - - - DNP.
Avery 3 6 -3 Gave up the big screen.
Ray Vinopal 3.5 2.5 1 OMG FS +1
TOTAL 12.5 12 0.5 Hardly involved.
Metrics
Pressure 8 2 6 Small numbers.
Coverage 13 4 9 Tiny numbers.
Tackling 4 8 -4 Not so good.
RPS 8 4 4 Amazing what playing a true freshman in a monsoon can do for you.

[RPS is "rock, paper, scissors." Michigan gets a + when they call a play that makes it very easy for them to defend the opponent, like getting a free blitzer. They get a – when they call a play that makes it very difficult for them to defend the opponent, like showing a seven-man blitz and having Penn State get easy touchdowns twice.]

The pressure and coverage numbers are incredibly low, as are the overall secondary numbers, which points to the thing you already knew: Michigan's weak point had virtually no pressure on it all day. How much is this going to matter when Michigan plays Tolzien and Pryor in (probably) dry conditions on turf? Probably not at all.

I see Demens didn't grade out well.

No, not so much, as two of Purdue's long runs seemed to be directly on him. The first:

This is similar to the Purdue run that was picture paged this afternoon with the line slanting one way but whereas on the Purdue play the MLB tears outside to fill the hole here Demens doesn't and gets clunked by a blocker, opening up a big gain. You can argue that Fitzgerald and Roh didn't do Demens any favors but they are slanting and that means Demens has to get behind them.

The second is just bad:

Moundros blitzes up the middle and when the handoff comes he fights to funnel the guy back to Demens, but Demens has wandered out of the middle when it's clear Roh is tearing at the QB and Kovacs has that space.

And then I'm not sure how I feel about this. Watch Demens hop outside the tackle on a stretch:

He does tear down the line and gets in on the tackle, so maybe that's okay. It gives me the heebie-jeebies, though.

Ezeh did, though, and you are an avowed Ezeh hater who really really hates Ezeh and would like to see him dipped in acid, right?

Er. I just think he hasn't been a very good linebacker.

You are also an avowed GERG hater who wants GERG dipped in acid and he's got a +4 RPS, right?

I would appreciate it if you stopped claiming I have a bias for or against certain players and coaches by using UFR numbers that contradict previous UFR numbers. This makes me want to stab you. Performances vary, and collecting those performances gives you a picture of a player. I try very hard to be systematic about the numbers handed out and as a result sometimes disagree with those numbers in the very UFR they are published in. They exist as a sanity check and a guide.

You're defensive, so it must be true.

ARGH STAB

Anyway, as to GERG. In this game the 3-3-5 seemed to make sense. This is because the linebackers were all at linebacker depth and Michigan did occasionally stem to different fronts that gave Purdue trouble. Here's an RPS +1 that sees Michigan move Banks down to a three tech, slant him under an unprepared guard, and force the play back into unblocked contain:

That's a concrete example of a "multiple" look being an asset. But it's against Purdue and their ramshackle lean-to of an offense. It's too little too late unless the team really surprises in the last three games.

You clipped a punt?

Damn right.

What was the best part of the game, and perhaps any game ever?

Sarcastic Hurray Guy after the Cam Gordon touchdown:

Win.

Heroes?

Obi Ezeh and Adam Patterson for filling in admirably for downed starters.

Goats, or as much of a goat you can be when the opposing offense scores six points?

Demens got lost a few times and opened up most of Purdue's successful runs; Avery made a big mistake that turned into Purdue's best play of the day.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and beyond?

Nothing. Seriously.

If you really want to stretch you can slightly downgrade your Demens enthusiasm, upgrade your Roh enthusiasm, and maybe vaguely hope Patterson is functional when he fills in for a (please God be) healthy Mike Martin. Ezeh may be okay as an OLB the last couple games, and will almost certainly be better than Roh was. But this was a terrible team playing in terrible conditions and Michigan's performance rested largely on their lack of competence. Wisconsin will probably bring Michigan back to earth with a thump.

Picture Pages: Throwing Rock Against A Slant

Picture Pages: Throwing Rock Against A Slant

Submitted by Brian on November 17th, 2010 at 1:33 PM

UFRing the Purdue game was a blast from the past, and in a frustrating way. After the first drive Purdue spent much of the day with eight guys in the box, and Michigan ran at them anyway. Since Michigan's always based out of a three-wide formation this is the equivalent of having nine guys against a tradition I-form; Purdue spent the day showing really soft man zero that may have morphed into cover three after the snap but still should have provided Michigan ample opportunity to exploit the big chunks of space Purdue was leaving open.

Look at Roundtree here:

slant-under-stretch-1

That was his whole day: sitting by himself and never getting a bubble. There were a lot of reasons for this—primarily the weather and Michigan's reluctance to do anything risky against a Purdue offense that's much worse than Michigan's defense—that were in retrospect correct. At the time it was very frustrating.

Anyway, this Picture Pages is about what this eighth guy in the box allowed Purdue to do. Going into the UFR I was hoping I'd see something that would explain why the offensive line seemed to get whipped so badly, and I think this is it. So that's the setup above. It's Michigan's third drive of the second half. They start on the twenty, it's first and ten, and Purdue has eight in the box. Michigan runs a basic stretch at them.

A moment after the snap you can see that the Purdue linemen are slanting away from the stretch instead of flowing with it. This is not something you see often:

slant-under-stretch-2

At the mesh point Robinson sees the slot guy containing and Kerrigan moving upfield past Huyge, who's releasing, so he hands off.

slant-under-stretch-3

A moment after the handoff we see that Molk has completely sealed the playside DT. Normally on a stretch play this means the opponent is dead meat. That's because the playside DE has to maintain contain and sets up outside the OT, which means running a good distance outside, which means there's a huge lane for the tailback and whichever guard is playside gets a free release at one linebacker in a lot of space.

Here the DE has not maintained contain. He's slanted inside Lewan and threatens to get upfield for a TFL. Also the MLB is driving hard to the outside. Schilling either aborts his release to rub the DE or just gets caught up on the Lewan block in an effort to get out on the charging LB:

slant-under-stretch-4

A moment later we see that Molk has erased both DTs with the seal but the playside DE is sitting in that hole. Lewan knows he's lost the battle and starts shoving him past the tailback. Smith has to go outside, where he's got a lead blocker in Hopkins against two Purdue linebackers. Schilling has no chance on the MLB since he shot for this exact hole at the snap:

slant-under-stretch-5

A moment later Hopkins kicks one guy, Lewan shoves the DE, and Schilling is following the other linebacker into the hole. Smith's cutting up because he doesn't have much of a choice.

slant-under-stretch-6

Linebacker is now the blur between Schilling and Smith. Schilling's managed to get him to run past the play a bit and he's got to make a diving ankle tackle…

slant-under-stretch-7

…but he does:

slant-under-stretch-8

Michigan receives zero yards.

Video:

Object lesson type objects:

  • Purdue can only do this because they have eight guys in the box against six blockers. One goes with Denard, so that's seven on six. Normally you see playside DEs set up outside on the stretch because if they don't that lead blocker to the outside threatens to pound a single linebacker and send the tailback into the secondary. Here Purdue outnumbers Michigan, which allows them to slant that DE inside and still get two guys on the perimeter when Lewan pushes the DE past the back. Purdue consistently answered the "one safety or zero" question with zero, and these were the results. Here they get the play to go exactly where they want to and kill it.
  • I don't think anyone blocking did anything wrong. The only block in question is the one on the playside DE where the guy gets under Lewan because he's slanting inside. If that DE gets past Lewan into the backfield that's a major issue but a main principle of zone blocking is you take the guy where he wants to go faster than he wants to go. Guy wanted to go inside, Lewan shoves him inside and opens up a crease at the LOS. Extra linebacker makes the play. The only thing I think Michigan could have done here is a weird anti-scoop where Schilling shoves the DE outside of Lewan instead of shoving the DT inside of Molk. I don't know if anyone's ever tried that so it's hard to blame the players.
  • This is actually close to breaking for some yardage maybe? Despite all this Schilling's good-faith effort to do something with that filling linebacker and Lewan's ability to create a decent hole sees Smith almost cut past the charging LB, whereupon he'd get somewhere between five and many yards. He can't.

    That's not a serious knock on Smith on his most effective day as a Wolverine. A back with the ability to make the cut he does on this sloppy field and the speed/power to run through that ankle tackle attempt would be a special guy indeed; hopefully Demetrius Hart can be that guy.

So, yes, I think I did find an explanation in what Purdue was doing that partially exonerated the offensive line. Michigan saw this front all day and kept running into it, which resulted in a crappy day on the ground. In this case the "crappy day on the ground" is 4.3 YPC excluding sacks, which is basically what good DeBord teams averaged on the ground. Since DeBord absolutely loved to run "away" from the extra guy and out-execute in the face of herculean odds, this makes sense.

Michigan's offense is going to net a huge RPS minus in UFR because of this rock, rock, rock playcalling, but don't take that too seriously. I get why they did it when Denard threw two horrible interceptions and a lot of his simple hitch routes to the sidelines were fluttering ducks. The conditions affected his throwing significantly, and allowed Purdue to spend 80% of the game running cover zero. When they stopped this on Michigan's late third-quarter drive from their own four, Michigan went right down the field until a clipping penalty on Lewan put them in second and forever.

More tomorrow when the offense UFR drops.

MGoPodcast 2.5: So Angry We Skipped A Number

MGoPodcast 2.5: So Angry We Skipped A Number

Two consecutive as we get the hang of being in town and not having fiascoes. This one is ANGRY even after my incoherent rant about that awful Audi commercial* hit the cutting room floor, mostly because Tim has a screaming rage issue with BTN color guy Chris Martin. I just mute the TV, myself.

We talk about the Purdue game, discuss how old I am for remembering Justin Fargas, and then bring in Jamiemac of Just Cover to discuss the weekend's Big Ten slate. Charges of inappropriate music fandom were leveled at Tim in response to his smug ignorance of anything that happened before 2005, but I'd like to make a correction: I accused him of liking queefcore when I meant crunkcore. A thousand apologies to the worst bands in the history of the universe.

*(You know, the one that starts off like lame Adbusters snark with various luxury car owners acting like consumer zombies about their preferred brand only to be shown the true light of justice and progress: Audis. I want it to die.)

The usual links:

Monday Player Presser Notes 11-15-10

Monday Player Presser Notes 11-15-10

Submitted by Tim on November 15th, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Cam Gordon

On the fumble return, "I was thinking 'scoop and score' like you talk in little league." Patterson was encouraging him during the runback. Was exciting to be able to score.

It's a learning experience to be in his first year on the field. Helping the team was the goal all along, and he's glad to be able to do that.

Position change is good for him because it's good for the team "I'm a football player and I want to play, nothing to it but that." Everything is coming at him faster at the new position, and the field is a bit more compacted. Being physical is his biggest strength. It's not confusing to switch positions for the third time. He's just a football player and loves being on the field.

Wisconsin: "They have some pretty good backs, the o-line is big. We'll see how it looks this week." When they put up 83 on Indiana, his only thought was "that's a good team." "They put up 83 against Indiana, not against us."

The defense's attitude has changed. "'I don't care attitude' - in a positive way" has been the defense's calling card for the last two weeks, and they'll continue with it. If the opponent gets a big play, they have to move on and not care.

Adam Patterson

Found out he was going to start within minutes of the beginning of the game. Was excited to get his first start. "It's was kinda hard to relax, but you know." There have been points where he wondered if he'd ever get the opportunity to start. Was motivated to prove himself. Filling in for Mike Martin "It's a lot of pressure." Need to step up when he goes down, even though it might be tough to fill his shoes.

Going through the coaching transition: "I feel like it's an experience that's really prepared me for my future and for life." They aren't that different, but this staff is a lot more intense.

When Cam Gordon was returning the fumble for a TD,"I just kept trying to tell him 'keep going, keep going.'"

Team will be focused to prepare for Wisconsin. "Wisconsin always has a big offensive line, and they always have a good offensive line." You respect them, but the goal is to prove you can compete with them. "You also come in with the mindset that this is going to be a very physical game."

Wisconsin scoring 83 against Indiana has motivated the M defense to make sure they don't have a bad performance themselves.

On the defense: "I really feel like the swagger is getting there. Every game we play is a stepping stone." The defense is developing, and they learned this weekend what they can do if they play up to their potential.

"To go out there and to win these next to games is very motivating." Trying to show what they can do, and improve bowl status.

James Rogers

"If the team ever needed me anywhere, I would do it. That was my whole mindset." He's going to get his degree, and to play football and get playing time is just an extra benefit to that.

Since the Illinois game, the defense has been more loose, and they're translating it to the field. "It's a good way to go into the game. Our swagger and everything about our defense got a lot better, and it's perfect to go into the Wisconsin game."

Not worried about Wisconsin's 83 points against Indiana "I guarantee you they're not going to score 83 points on us." Wisconsin is a powerful team, but Indiana backed down a bit at the end, and Michigan won't do that, they'll fight to the finish.

Will miss running through the tunnel after doing it the last time this weekend.

"I hope they throw the ball my way a little more, I haven't seen much action lately." Wants the chance to build up some stats. You just had two interceptions: "Yeah, FINALLY."

"I've seen Courtney grow a lot even when JT was there." He'll be a great player in the future and has stepped up. Vinopal has stepped up in a tough position. Talbott and Christian have also done a really good job as true freshmen.

"We need this Ohio State win bigger than anything. That's something we've been waiting on, and our focus will be on that really soon. We've gotta take on Wisconsin first."

Main difference between Carr and Rodriguez eras is a major step up in the conditioning.

Stephen Schilling

Lots of memories about touching the banner, etc., excited to have one more time to do that. Wants the seniors to leave with a win.

The change in coaching staffs has made for an unexpectedly interesting experience. "Hopefully this is the year that Michigan turns the tide." Ohio State "That's the big one obviously, and they've got us however many 6 or 7 years in a row." Winning in Columbus would set the program up for years to come.

Ryan Kerrigan is a great player. "We weren't running the ball very well, and got into third and long." That allowed Kerrigan to get after the QBs a bit more.

"The energy has been there the last two weeks" for the defense. Even though they struggled a bit, they want to prove themselves again at the end of the season.

Wisconsin is always tough against the run. Michigan is coming off a poor rushing performance against Purdue, so they'll need to be back on their game to have success.

There are keys to victory for every week, and ball security is on the list every week. "You can't win games with turnovers. The last two we were lucky to come out of there with a win."

Kelvin Grady

It's always important to take care of the ball, especially against a grinding team like Wisconsin.

It's impressive that Wisconsin could put up 83 points. "I didn't really think much of it. Obviously Wisconsin's a great team, but it didn't make me scared or anything."

Important to send the seniors out with a win in their final home game. Glad they were able to get to a bowl game for those guys. "We all wanna win, for them it might be a little more important."

Denard responds well, even after he makes mistakes.

"We're not content with anything." Want to win the last two games. "We're gonna go and and we're gonna fight in those two games."

Tries to stay ready for the occasion when he gets the ball on the reverse, but isn't begging for it to get called.

Different receivers prefer different routes, but it's their job to work them all in practice. "If you're in that position, and they happen to call the play and you've gotta run that route, you're gonna run that route."

Rich Rodriguez Monday Presser Notes 11-15-10

Rich Rodriguez Monday Presser Notes 11-15-10

Submitted by Tim on November 15th, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Notes from Rich Rodriguez's Monday meeting with the press.

IMG_1356.JPG

Actual News

Shaw - "We'll see what he can do, and test in the next couple days, and see if he can go Saturday. Hopefully he'll be able to play..."

Martin and Mouton "We're hopeful that both can play." They'll be evaluated tomorrow and Wednesday.

"Perry would have been the starter, but Perry is still not 100%." He'll be the starter if healthy. "I'm hoping this week he'll be all the way back."

He has sent in some plays to the conference office each week, but this week he's going to follow up with them a bit more. "After this game there were more questions, I guess."

Personnel & Purdue

You try to project positions for guys when you recruit them, but some continue to grow when they get weight training, and they go through a progression. A couple more guys might move in bowl or spring practices - corner to safety, safety to OLB, etc. Probably would have moved more guys earlier if the team had stayed healthy.

Craig Roh will stay at DE. He's around 250, he'll continue growing and get up to 265. "I think putting his hand down makes him a lot more comfortable and that makes us better... Craig was a defensive end in high school, but he was athletic enough that we thought he could play some linebacker - and we still do."

Cam Gordon will stay at box safety. "He's a physical guy, he's a bigger guy." Not as much room to cover closer to the line of scrimmage. "We know that he's going to keep getting better, but the thing I like about him is he's a guy that loves playing football."

Denard can scramble to extend the play, but whether you choose to run or throw, it needs to be a good decision. He just had some bad moments in the last game. "I don't think he's hit a lull, he just had some bad moments in the last game... He was having a tough day, but in the last drive, he was the difference." QBs pooch punting: "Prior to this game, they were really pretty good at it."

Vincent Smith - "He's probably been the most consistent back we've had" not just running, but blocking and catching, too. "It has been almost a year since he tore his knee" and is looking faster. Each week he's getting speed, strength, and confidence back.

Michael Cox - "He's been a little bit banged up, but really it's been the other guys" that have kept him off the field. Toussaint can provide "a little spark" as he continues to get healthy.

Patterson and Sagesse played well. Talbott, Ash, and Wilkins are doing a nice job in practice. They'll be helped by the extra 15 practices with a bowl game.

Ezeh - "He was solid, he was OK. I thought Obi made some good plays close to the line of scrimmage." Fitzgerald was decent as well, as was Moundros filling in for Jonas Mouton. Even though Purdue has been struggling all year on offense, the backups should be commended for how they stepped in.

Vinopal - made a couple mistakes, but mostly kept things in front of him. "He's gonna keep getting better."

Carvin Johnson - "Really excited about him. Again, he's another true freshman that right now can play both safety positions."

Avery is a competitive guy, wants to get better. "I don't know if anybody in the country is playing as many freshmen or first-time starters as we are on defense." They'll get through growing pains, exciting for the future.

Kicking situation will be competitive in practice. "Seth has been kicking better in practice, but he didn't kick well on Saturday, so we'll see what happens this week in practice."

Hagerup has been better on kickoffs, part of the problem with coverage on kickoffs is they don't want their young guys starting on D and special teams, because they'd get worn out. "Our depth on special teams has been affected as much with the injuries as anything else."

Didn't play well, weren't ready to play for the conditions. "They had something to do with that, but we just didn't handle the conditions well, take care of the ball well, we were just kinda off-rhythm the whole day."

Both teams need to practice with wet conditions. The conditions were a factor in both teams' turnovers. "It was one of those games that I was glad we got 'em, because if we didn't, we would have been in trouble." Defense scored for the first time this season, made some key third-down stops.

On failed 4th down (Hopkins). "That was a product of execution. That should never happen."

Declined the penalty and let Wiggs kick the 43-yard FG because he was kicking with the wind and had enough leg to hit it either way, and Michigan would have still had the lead, FG or no.

Kerrigan "Some of it was he's a really good player, and some of it is we didn't play very well at times against him." He's an All-Conference-type player.

Wisconsin

jjwatt.jpg

Last home game in the Big House is a big deal for the seniors. "We don't have a big senior class, but the guys that we have have been through a lot." Some things will be planned throughout the week.

Wisconsin "They're certainly a top-5 football team, there's no question about that." They made scoring every possession look easy. Wisconsin deflated Indiana and Chappell got hurt, which led to Wisconsin getting rolling and everything went downhill. "I don't know if any coach intentionally goes out and does it, it just happens." Throwing at the end is the coach's preference, but with the backups in, you can't ask them not to try.

Wisconsin is a bit different by being the only true power run team in the league. "You have a wide variety of both offense and defensive schemes anyway." It's pretty balanced, so you have to be able to defend all variety. Their offense all starts with the running game. "They'll come downhill at you, and they're very big up front." Nearly everything they do - bootlegs, play-action - comes from the run game. People make a big deal about playing a power run game after facing several spread teams. It's tougher to go the other way. "It's a little bit of an adjustment, and our guys will prepare for that this week."

Wisconsin's going to run the same plays whomever the starting RB is. "Clay's obviously the biggest one." Get to them quickly, don't let them get a head of steam. "Especially if you're undersized a little bit, like we are in spots, it's going to be tough."

On JJ Watt (above, right): "I think he's an All-American, in my opinion." Watt plays inside more than Kerrigan.

Beating Wisconsin or OSU would be a great signature win, but more importantly for the guys on the team who want to have success. They've stayed focused, and are ignoring outside negativity.

Will talk about the home finale throughout the week. A couple special things in practice for the seniors. "Probably have one or two of them come up and talk about their experience."

When they get introduced on Saturday "the greatest achievement you can achieve as a college student-athlete is going through your senior year." Speaks to the sacrifice you've made for the team and University. "The guys who are no longer around didn't make that same sacrifice, and these guys have. And they should be honored for making it."

Etc.

Motivation and focus has been good all year. "I would think it'll be easy to motivate for these last two weeks, considering what's at stake for us."

RR thought the program would be further ahead by this point. "You find out what you have, and do what you can with what you've got, and move forward." The goal is to be the best program in America, and they're moving toward that.

Spending more time with the D. "Just a little bit more on Sundays, and maybe watch a little bit more in practice." Been doing the same amount of 1v1 repetition. "What we've done more this year is getting, say, our second offense, and having them run the opposing offense a bit more in practice." They have fewer guys available for scout team.

Talk about the offense not being a fit for the Big Ten is just talk. "I'm hoping that there's enough positive momentum and positive talk that all the negative stuff that's been out there gets pushed aside a bit." Progress is being made. "It's almost been par for the course" to hear negative talk, but they can't let it affect them. As long as you believe in the system and your people, you can keep pressing forward.

The Music Of The Slightly Damned

The Music Of The Slightly Damned

Submitted by Brian on November 15th, 2010 at 12:26 PM

11/13/2010 – Michigan 27, Purdue 16 – 7-3, 3-3 Big Ten

cam-gordon-fumble-td

Detnews/mgoblue.com

I lasted a quarter and a half before giving in to my inner old man and muting the television. Chris Martin had not just said that the receiver Roy Roundtree reminded him of was Braylon Edwards, but that's all I remember from the first hour. I love the Big Ten Network's picture quality and was pleasantly surprised when Saturday's director consistently cut away from highlight packages to show the game. Not so much the people paid to talk.

I was home alone since the last time I tried to watch a game in the company of people it was the Penn State game. I went home at halftime after demonstrating my severe case of sports Tourrette's. I didn't trust the team enough to expose the world to me for those three hours on Saturday, and that turned out to be a good call. Slop happened, swears were deployed, and sometime in the third quarter Sean Robinson threw a ball directly at James Rogers for the ninth turnover of the day.

It was a this point that Yakety Sax spontaneously started playing in my otherwise silent apartment.

Possibilities washed over me. One: I have been driven insane by last four years of Michigan football. Two: I am now dangerously, thrillingly super-sane and will walk-around hearing situationally appropriate music everywhere I go. I will hear "Yes We Have No Bananas" and know I don't need to bother with the produce section. People will have to tell me what Mark Dantonio says as "Breakin' The Law" thunders in my skill. I will stop complaining about Special K because instead of "Let the Bodies Hit the Floor," I will hear the marching band.

I ONLY EAT BANANAS AND HEAR YAKETY SAX SPONTANTEOUSLY WOOOOOOO—damn. It turns out that I still had a liveblog window open and when you post a video it auto-plays because it loves breaking the cardinal rule of the internet. Elaborate sigh, dreams deferred.

I'd forgotten because I don't participate in the liveblogs mostly because I'm at the games. Even when I'm not I avoid them—I don't like my own furious overreactions, let alone the furious overreactions of hundreds of other people.

-------------------------------------------------------------

What have we learned in week ten? Eh… I'm not sure you can take much out of this game except a growing concern for Denard Robinson's turnover issues and healthy fear of Ryan Kerrigan. Football played between good teams gets ugly when the rain is constant and the field starts coming up in big sliding chunks; football between bad teams causes spontaneous yakety sax. I don't think we're under the illusion that Michigan is a good team.

The footing issues were most apparent with the tailbacks but applied to everyone, so I'm not sure how much the offensive line getting owned was the conditions and how much was Kerrigan being Brandon Graham 2010 and how much was just the offensive line getting owned. The rest of the problems extended from that—Denard got the first serious, consistent pressure of his career and responded like most quarterbacks dealing with their first case of happy feet do. The running game was a slog. This week's epidemic of dropped passes has a good reason.

Unfortunately, the same logic applies to the other side of the ball, where Michigan took on Gritty Eckstein at tailback and went to work against a team that got the ball down 11 with no timeouts and a minute and a half left and decided this was the best course of action:

  1. Throw in the flat from one freshman quarterback to the other freshman quarterback, who had lined up at wide receiver.
  2. Tunnel screen.
  3. Five yard hitch.

The scariest thing Purdue's offense did all day was start Justin Siller. We have finally found the team whose offensive incompetency outstrips Michigan's defensive incompetency.

There is no data here not obviously affected by the opponent and the weather. Next week when the footing is solid and the opponent has a quarterback whose default option is not a dumpoff to the other quarterback everything will be completely different. Since it was a win—one that was in retrospect not in much danger after Michigan scored to go up 20-13—this game will be relegated to the scrap heap of mud-ugly games past and forgotten.

Now if I can just figure out where "Livin' on a Prayer" is coming from, we are in business.

Non-Bullets Der Wet Catten

This did not happen. Remember that these things can be much, much worse. The saddest picture in the history of Michigan football came from the 2008 Fandom Endurance III game:

darryl-stonum-nw-sad

Lon Horwedel/AnnArbor.com

The Orin Incandenza Award. The play of the game is Will Hagerup's 72-yard bomb early in the fourth quarter that put Purdue on their own three. Courtney Avery would biff a long handoff on the next play but give the ball back on a fumble. Michigan punt, Purdue punt, Michigan excellent field position for clinching touchdown. Watching this game was a blast from the past; feeling my decision matrix switch from GO FOR IT GO FOR IT GO FOR IT to "it's third and seven, we should run it and then punt" was like being possessed by the ghost of Lloyd Carr*.

That thing flipped the field position in a game where field position is a tug of war instead of a minor inconvenience en route to the endzone. It soared. The returner is a lithe whippet of a man somewhere around 20 years old and he didn't bother to run since it was too long. Ain't running that far. That's going to China, yo.

*(The author is aware that Carr does not actually have a ghost.)

Growing concern for turnover issues. The interceptions were bad but maybe that just happens because of the weather and the pressure which may have been caused by the weather, etc., but the fumble was the continuation of a bad habit we've seen all year: when Denard gets outside he does not switch the ball to the outside arm. On Saturday that allowed some guy to come from the inside and strip the ball as he spun Denard to the ground. That's a basic coaching point and I'm not sure why a guy who runs as much as Denard hasn't had it hammered into his skull.

Quarterback rotation. I thought putting in Forcier here and there was the right move even if it didn't result in any of those yard things (Forcier was one for four and his one completion was blown up by a Molk hold, leading to another pooch punt) since the offense wasn't going anywhere and the two quarterbacks are different enough that it's plausible Forcier could do something Denard couldn't, especially after the two INTs.

I also liked Rodriguez's response to some question about "benching Denard." To paraphrase: benching is a strong word. If he's a tailback or wide receiver he's getting a rest. We put him back in. You are making 1000 times less than me for a reason.

Last part probably another hallucination.

Might as well try it.

ryan-van-bergen-xp

AnnArbor.com

Right, I mean? Right? I think the headphones are key.

Grim weather past. All games played in driving rain on shoddy turf kind of melt into each other, a never-ending parade of fumbles, third and eight runs, five yard throws that hit spectators in the face, and either shots of people looking wet and cranky in ponchos or looking grim and cranky in a poncho yourself.

But in one specific way, this game reminded me of a previous slopfest around 2002 or so when a to-that-point disappointing Justin Fargas had the first and only 100 yard game of his Michigan career in a mud pit against Northwestern. Fargas was much better than Michigan's other backs because he was small* and could change direction without engaging pratfall warp drive. I thought of him as Vincent Smith changed direction relatively quickly and came up a yard short of the first 100 yard game of his career not played against baby seals.

I also was like "aaargh why aren't you a step faster" several times. Smith's had a good couple games but unless he's not really 100% after the knee injury it seems like it's cost him some of his giddyup.

*(He would get Brian Cushing roid huge at USC—at Michigan he was diminutive.)

A moment of pure terror. Was anyone else about to have a conniption fit after Avery let that WR zip by him with nothing but Ray Vinopal between that guy and the endzone? Rogers was pursuing to the backside so if Vinopal missed he just had to slow the guy or make him cut back, but watching a true freshman two star scurry down his angle as the last thing between Purdue and a 97-yard wide receiver screen touchdown is a whiskey-inducing experience.

Vinopal made a fine tackle and Purdue had the decency to fumble on the next play, so the moment passed successful. But jeez.

I-form: die. Die die die. Die die die die die.

Die.

Oddities. One: Gallon was clearly not making a fair catch signal and shouldn't have been flagged. Two: Purdue kicked off from the 35 once. WTF?

Elsewhere

No Video of All Varieties yesterday because the pickings were understandably slim, but here's a bird talking about the game. Stay tuned for the twist ending:

I wish this would happen to certain WTKA callers. There is also a Wolverine Historian clipreel:

The official site has a briefer version and the defense every snap video is already up. Also SD torrent.

Purdue bloggers say their defensive back who scored "displayed shades of Deion Sanders" by having a ball thrown directly at him whilst  being five yards from the nearest receiver. They do post video of girls fighting. The guy who guaranteed a win declares the game the "ugliest football game" he's ever attended, which yeah pretty much. The comments are weirdly negative. If mean, if anyone deserves a pass it's Purdue and their new mascot:

 perrycolor

On to Michigan blogs: the Hoover Street Rag drops a Warren G. Harding reference that I misread as a "Warren G" reference when they tweeted it out. Alas, these guys are still bandos and history teachers (I'm guessing, anyway) and we don't get to find out what bandos/teachers would say in re: Warren G and Michigan football. The Harding bit:

Harding was widely reviled for his incompetence, his willingness to let his friends do as they pleased, the general sense of fail that emanated White House followed him until his death in 1923. Except, when historians look back, they see that things were not as bad as they once thought. Harding was blamed when things went wrong, but got little to no credit for the things that went right. People saw what they wanted to see and argued their points as they chose a new path to their future. Then again, Harding never got America bowl eligible, so we'll see.

Chances Sarah Palin adopts "get America bowl eligible" as a campaign slogan: 50-50. The Big House Blog has a very silly picture of a dog in a poncho and The Wolverine Blog grabs a shot of Lewan rumbling with the ball.

Dear Diary Hands Over the Badge

Dear Diary Hands Over the Badge

Submitted by Seth on November 14th, 2010 at 6:34 PM

Purdue2 Purdue

Second photo courtesy of MGoBlue.com

Dear Diary,

Someone (*cough* Penn State) once said that Michigan fans act as if our team is playing only itself, i.e we attribute all good things to great Michigan play, all bad things to bad Michigan play; Good luck = return to the mean; Bad luck = somebody on Mount Olympus with a bug up his ass.

Well, today is not that day.

Throughout Saturday, I kept envisioning 3rd-and-7 Denard side-arms or Tate scrambly moxie-ducks turning into the Pick-Six that finally put the Boilermakers ahead. At no point however, even with the worst Michigan defense of my lifetime on the field, did I think our 4-point lead was actually in danger from Purdue's offense, especially after Hope got the silly idea that he should try passing the ball.

I am hereby opening up the MGoWarehouse and donating all of our leftover, unused boxes of

patches to the good people in Black and Gold who managed to depart Ross-Ade Stadium after 3:30 p.m. yesterday without kicking a cat. Don't worry about stocks running low: there's about 90,000 left from the people who walked out of a one-score 2008 Michigan-Northwestern knowing the combination of a sleet monsoon and a mediocre Big Ten defense was too much for an offense made of broken down car parts, duct tape, and the guy in the front row eating fat free pretzels. It happens.

This was 2008 all over again, except it was happening to someone else. At least Danny Hope kind of deserves it.

As for our offense, I'll abide by ruling of the UFRs but my take on the game was that the containment of Rich Rod's Traveling Flag Football Stars and Spread Kings (for lack of a better barnstorming nickname) was about 10 percent Denard's increasingly worrisome accuracy issues (diary by papabear16), 45 percent whatever pissed off Poseidon, and 45 percent Ryan Kerrigan = Brandon Graham only maybe better at football.

Nuclear Disarmament Poll

My personal meme for Jonas Mouton has been to compare him to some sort of devastating yet unstable goblin weapon that is capable of causing unfair levels of damage to your opponent, but so long as he is on your side there is an almost equally likely chance that he will explode spectacularly on friendly targets. In video games and the like I have generally avoided such weapons, then become enraged when they're used against me to effectiveness.

After seeing Mark Moundros trying to fill Mouton's spot for one game – a game by the way that featured the statistically best defensive performance of the year – I'm ready to go back to Weapon X. The UFR will know for sure, but the supposedly stable Moundros didn't really differentiate himself that much from Obi Ezeh on live watch. I'm interested to know what you folks think. Poll time:

If Mouton's not available, who do you want at WLB against Wisconsin/Ohio State?

Public Service Announcements

Before moving on to the others, a couple of abuses of power public service announcements:

Adopt-a-Shelter

Last year I was very proud to see the visible level of MGoInvolvement in this annual charity event. Basically we go to two Detroit homeless shelters on Saturday, Dec. 4, and throw a Christmas party for the kids while the parents shop for gifts among donated items. We need volunteers and gift donations, and specifically I am casting about for a functional photo printer and a place that makes bagels who would like to donate bagels for 200 people, maybe plus cream cheese but I won't press that. One thing you can do is buy a gift on Amazon (which gives Brian credit) and have it sent to one of the parties.

 

 

    Help Design Officially Officious History Dept. T-Shirts

    4mkmnoq2History majors, remember when you were spending 90 percent of your life reading coursepacks and deleting e-mails from Kathy Evaldson?

    Kathy is still there, and is currently trying to get a good design locked down so new History students can walk around in cool t-shirts. Current plans are to have them available for alums/current students on a specific time and day because they really don't have the time to get into shipping and selling online. The ones they are currently considering are pathetic, but Kathy has given MGoBloggers a shot at coming up with better. Get something to Kathy by November 17 to have your design put in.

    Recruiting Fans: I….I Didn't Know.

    Listen to Yourself

    xkcd.

    Saginaw native and Tennessee commit DeAnthony Arnett is taking his talents out of Michigan, but not before giving the closest followers of his recruitment the Randall Monroe treatment. The four-star receiver spent his commitment eve posting twitvids of him committing to all of the following:

    • USC
    • Michigan
    • Central Michigan
    • Tennessee
    • Slippery Rock
    • The University of Michigan State
    • University of Cal

    The kicker: on the last video DeAnthony unveils what I'm pretty sure is, verbatim, the script for the entire production, which was taken directly from Internet message boards:

    To everyone who filled threads on this site and elsewhere with responses to the effect of "Arnett's an attention whore," I think you're wrong: he's just clever and has an ironic sense of humor. In fact, just to spite you all, and because this is bar none the best mockery I've seen yet of the Internet's sordid obsession with college football recruiting (in which I'm a participant), I'm naming DeAnthony the Diarist of the Week.

    What, like the MGoDiarists didn't have anything good this week?

    Oh, they did…

    Things Strategic/Tactical/Fundamental

    If wasn't being a dick and giving the award to a future Tennessee wide receiver, it would have gone to maizedandconfused for his Must-Read analysis on tackling over UConn, ND, MSU, and Iowa:

    A few notes from the individual analysis:

    • Kovacs is by far our best tackler, with Mouton, Johnson and surprisingly Gordon #15 as the 2,3,4 respectively. 
    • Of the guys on this list, the biggest surprise was Martin, however I think it is important to remember that this tackling eff. calculation puts weight on total tackles made, and Martin gets doubled. A lot. (in review of my stats, Martin only missed 3 tackles total, with 2 by bad form)
    • In the two games Demens played, he was an absolute tackling machine.
    • Ezeh really cannot tackle.

    Of course tackling doesn't do any good if the opponent has an eligible receiver on your 1-yard line and your nearest defender is in the Delta Quadrant.

    kg0u8u9c

    I claim this great expanse in the name of Lincoln

    Hey, remember when RB wheel routes were hand-wavingly open against us and stuff? Well dnak438 wasn't about to wait for Brian or other Brian or Not a Girl Named Brian to picture-page the thing and took the initiative

    Avery, meanwhile, has taken the outside receiver into the center of the field.  T. Gordon doesn't stay with LeShoure, presumably because he sees Pollard in the flat. The result is that LeShoure is wide open.

    It's a two-for-one PP, as both the original and the just-as-awful sequel make it in:

    Same mistake as Wheel of Doom #1: Avery (red arrow) is following the inside receiver who is running a post, leaving vast amounts of green behind him. Mouton is on the 13 yard line, stopping the in route of the outside receiver.

    For the record, the lady with the shrill voice in my section who finds things "UNACCEPTABLE" found both of these plays "UNACCEPTABLE." Shrill Lady is angry, Mr. Robinson; what are you going to do about it?

    And because we can't get enough of Picture Pages around here, Chris of Dangerous Danger Logic that is Dangerful (We're from Danger!) has obliged us with two more Moving Picture Pages this week, one on the Snag Package, and another on Michigan's adjustment to Illinois blitzing behind the optioned DE.

    While we're on tactics, Blue_n_Aww takes a look at whether Michigan should have gone for two points after scoring in the 2nd overtime:

    I did a bit of research and found a study that showed that the team that starts on defense wins about 52.25% of the time in the third overtime and later. You can find the study here. And, looking at M’s kicking statistics I’ve found that the team is 46/47 on extra point attempts, 98%. I used that for our success rate in this spot. So when we kick the extra point we’ll win .4775*.98= .468. So if we can convert the 2pt conversion 47% of the time, we should go for 2.

    papabear16, as linked above, discussed Denard's mechanical issues and how fixing those might make him a Heisman candidate again next year.

    We also get a collection of scrape and contain plays for discussion from tasnyder01, who, diary-wise, is still pretty raw, but he's starting to use the WYSIWYG. Campbellian patience is urged.

    Things Statistical

    Wow did things get stat-y this week. In chart form:

    Diary

    Author

    Synopsis

    Money Quote/Chart/Graphic

    Statistical Analysis of Defense During B10 Games - *Updated Through Purdue* matt D Compares the D performance in each game by metrics like Stop%, Pts/Drive, etc. 1
    Progress, Quantified Coach Schiano A real comparison btw '09 and '10 performance 2

    Communist Football's Almanack of Broken Records - Purdue Edition

    Communist Football Weekly update (as of Purdue) of records broken this year 3
    Illinois Recap: I was there when… The Mathlete PAN recap after Illinois game image
    What would Michigan look like with a better defense? The Mathlete The O can't get much better but if D is avg. how good are we?

    An offense at this level plus an average defense in the Big Ten will probably mean at least ten wins.

    Bradley-Terry Statistical Rating (KRACH) for FBS Football quakk Bradley-Terry method applied to BCS standings 4

    Grid of Expectation

    Diary

    Author

    Method

    Prediction

    Over/Under: Michigan at Purdue jamiemac Vegas lines M, 41-31
    Purdue Preview The Mathlete Brings the PAN M, 35-30
    Week #10 National Rankings and Predictions for Purdue Enjoy Life Sagarin, Fremeau M – 4.8 pts.
    Post Week 10: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor tpilews YPP, PPD, etc. M, 48-24
    Preview: Purdue 2010 Brian
    2hi8llw
    M, 35-24
    Weather Charts on the NET NOAA Highs, Lows Yarrr!

    Etc.

    Woolfolk

    This epic diary from Billy Shears was front-paged because the guy who owns this blog is the kind of person who will constantly foist The Smiths on his friends because he has seen Morrissey's hidden genius and believes the rest of us will be able to listen to that crap and pick out the ideas that sparked alt rock and post punk while ignoring the bleeding of ears. Also: it really captures the feel of this season (right down to the part where you're squinting and trying imagine how these concepts will coalesce into a National Championship season eventually).

    Those who have been enjoying monuMental's weekly Windows backgrounds will delight to see how one of these artistic masterpieces comes together:

    bklein09 makes the case for Denard to win the Heisman this year, and a statistical glance like this does make a hell of a case. But the picks, man. The picks.