B1G Expectations: 2016 Week 11 Total Conference Wins Update

B1G Expectations: 2016 Week 11 Total Conference Wins Update

Submitted by Ecky Pting on November 18th, 2016 at 11:47 PM

Big_Ten_Conference_logo.png Expectations

Week 11 Conference Wins Update

Preamble

“Break their hearts my pride and hope, break their hearts and have no mercy.”
    - Miss Havisham (Charles Dickens’ Great Expectations)

Week 11 means there are two games remaining, and the computations are now in the realm of solution using your favorite handheld device. The resulting charts will either be single or dual-moded in nature, with not much beyond. I’d previously considered making last week’s post the last installment of this diary, but then M fell victim to the trap game of all trap games, and failed to exorcise its demons in Kinnick Stadium. As a result, the charts have become moderately interesting. That said, this diary will be brief in that it skips over the B1GW results and the Win Differential Distributions from past diaries. However, in light of re-energized three-way race for the B1GE title, a new section has been added to analyze the probabilities and scenarios by which each of the three contenders can punch their tickets to the B1GCG.

Nonetheless, with all of its goals yet ahead, Team 137 continues its ascent toward the pinnacle of college football, the Rose Bowl College Football Playoff. As part of Harbaugh’s diabolical master plan, he has played the ultimate troll upon rival OSU by dropping the Iowa game, which has all but blocked the Buckeyes from getting to the B1GCG even if they win out. Speight being knocked out of the last two games also plays into that plan by incorporating a shift in the offensive threat matrix known as Harbaughffense just two weeks before the biggest collision to be seen since Football Armageddon. The threat posed by John O’Korn of running the ball - combined with the relative dearth of film-based documentation of JOK doing just that - adds yet another element to the ruthlessly efficient schemes that Harbaugh will have at the ready. Between now and Columbus, the challenge is that the Wolverines must avoid an untimely demise in yet another impending trap game with ChaosTeam 2.0.

Schedules, Margins, Probabilities & Distributions

B1G East Schedules & Margins Rundown

The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ weekly ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals, it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+

Michigan, by virtue of its loss to Iowa, slips from #1 to the #2 ranked team in all the land as per S&P+, with OSU right behind at #3. Penn State also slips in the the S&P+ ranks and now stands at #12 - two behind #10 Wisconsin.

Looking at the S&P+ probabilities, the Nittany Lions now lead the B1GE with nearly 7.9 expected B1G wins, ahead of the 2nd place Wolverines at 7.5 wins, with the Buckeyes less than 0.1 wins behind. This is all by virtue of PSU being strongly favored in its remaining games, and The Game looking to be a toss-up, with OSU only a ½-point underdog.

Indiana, despite losing to PSU, remains in the fourth spot. The Hoosiers, now with just under 4.0 expected wins and being favored in the last of their remaining games against Purdue, are marginally on track for bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Maryland is also on the bowl-eligibility bubble looking for its sixth win. With LOLRutgerz still on the schedule, the Terps have an ace in the hole.

FPI

The FPI results differ ever so slightly. Here as well, Michigan comes in with the #2 ranking with OSU in the #3 spot. PSU tops all teams in the B1GE with just over 7.7 expected wins and is on track for a 10-2 season and have a fairly good chance of making it to Indy. The Nits lead second place OSU, who is a shade under 7.5 expected wins. U-M slips to #3 and is no longer favored in The Game. The margin now has the Buckeyes favored by 2.8 points. Indiana holds the #4 B1GE spot firmly at about 3.8 expected wins, and remains in the edge of bowl-eligibility. Likewise, Maryland is on the bowl-eligibility bubble, now at 3.0 expected wins and being a favorite in only one more game. Sparty closed on the last remaining game in which is was favored, capturing the Situation Trophy from arch-nemesis LOLRutgerz.

Here’s a link to a chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings. The numbers here look similarly pessimistic.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

S&P+

So here in final week probability distributions, a sea change has taken place. The once proud Michigan spike at the top end of the overlay has been supplanted by … Penn State? Yes indeed, it is the Nittany Lions who have the greatest likelihood to win out at 87.4%, and a mode of 8 wins. Yet, Michigan also has a mode of 8 wins, but with only a 50.1% likelihood, it’s nearly perfectly balanced against 7 wins. This is of course primarily because of The Game, which is a near toss-up as, noted above. Thus, OSU has a mode of 7 wins, with a strong lean toward 8 wins.

Still, the cluster at the 8-win mode has grown larger by virtue of M’s loss to Iowa, however, the only way a 3-way tie can occur now is if all 3 teams lose one and only one more game - the likelihood of which is vanishingly small due to the covariance between M & OSU. That said, PSU can now easily advance if M drops one more game than PSU from here on out. Yet at this point, it still remains that the B1GE title is Michigan’s to lose. It’s just that the likelihood of not winning out has registered a significant uptick this past week, which as noted above is about 50/50. Meanwhile, the only way that OSU can claim the B1GE title is to beat Michigan and have PSU drop one more game than OSU from here on out.
Indiana and Maryland now sit firmly at 4 wins and 3 wins, respectively. MSU and LOLRutgerz are looking like locks for single-win and winless B1G seasons, respectively.

FPI

The FPI results show a similar profile, but with a slightly different clustering at the top. Here PSU and OSU show 8-win modes, with PSU’s mode being the strongest, while OSU shows a bias toward the 7-win mode. Conversely, M registers a 7-win mode with a bias toward 8 wins. As such, PSU has the highest probability to win out at 74.8%. OSU has a 52.2% chance, and  UM stands at a 42.0% chance to win out.  As in the S&P+ results, the remaining four teams occupy distinct modes with weak probabilities to break out of them.

Here’s a link to a chart showing the results from the Power Rank-ings.

B1GE FTW

With the various point spreads and win probabilities in mind, and with only two games remaining in the season, it becomes straightforward to run through the various scenarios by which the remaining contenders - Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State - can become the B1GE divisional champ. What is evident is that all three teams have paths to Indianapolis not only by winning out along with a little help, but that all three teams have paths to Indianapolis even if they should lose one game. That said, the only team that has the freedom to lose either of its last two games is Penn State. However, it’s not necessarily true that PSU is the most likely B1GE champ. So without further ado, here are the possible scenarios:

B1GE champ
Description
Michigan M wins out
Michigan [M loses to IU] &
[M beats OSU] &
[PSU loses 1 or more]
PSU [PSU wins out] &
[M loses 1 or more]
PSU [PSU loses 1] &
[M loses 2] &
[OSU loses to MSU]
OSU [OSU wins out] &
[PSU loses 1 or more]
OSU [OSU loses to MSU] &
[OSU beats M] &
[PSU loses 1 or more]

 

Following are pie charts depicting the likelihoods of each of the three teams based on the individual win probabilities derived from S&P+, FPI and the Power Rank.

So as you can see, Ohio State is not nearly out of it, however, the Buckeyes do have the lowest probability of advancing in all three ratings. Michigan has the greatest probabilities in S&P+ and the Power Rank, while Penn State has the best probability based on FPI. Michigan receives the only probability greater than 50% in the S&P+ breakdown. PSU’s probabilities have the tightest spread of only 8.6 points with an average of 40.7%. Michigan has the highest average of 44.7%, with a spread of 8.8 points. Ohio State has a spread of 17.4 points with an average of 14.7%.

Wrap-up

So there you have it. As you can see, the distributions are looking much more deterministic than earlier in the season. That said, Michigan remains in the catbird seat looking ahead to Columbus the last Saturday of the month. Regardless of what happens this week, both teams will still have a chance to advance by winning The Game. In the meantime nonetheless, Michigan will need to remain focused on the intervening game while breaking in a new Quarterback.

It’s undeniable that the prospects for Michigan football to play in the Big Ten Championship Game have definitely taken a hit with the loss to Iowa. Most if not all great teams have lapses over the course attaining a championship. Most if not all great teams have the benefit of luck on their side as well. To that end, Team 137 is fortunate to still be in mix after the gaffe that occurred last week, and if it has the character and leadership of a championship team, it will come together and set things right again. OSU is always a tough out when facing Michigan, and that’s why so many look forward to The Game with such great anticipation each year regardless of the stakes. In all, Team 137 has exhibited all the qualities one expects to see in a team that has both great expectations as well as a great capacity to realize those expectations.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!
 

Other Games of Import

Other Games of Import

Submitted by BornInAA on November 18th, 2016 at 6:08 PM

Ok – another top team went down for the count last night.

What other upset or nail-biter predictions have you?

 

Chattanooga @ (1) Alabama

         No – but this is the first time I have ever typed “Chattanooga”

(2) OSU @ MSU

         Maybe - Lansing is supposed to get even crappier weather than Ann Arbor!

(4) Clemson @ Wake Forest

         No

(7) WISC @ Purdue

        NO

(8) PSU @ Rutgers

        Double NO

(9) Oklahoma @ (14) WVU

        Yes – I like West Virginia at home here.

(22) WSU @ (10) Colorado

        No – I think Colorado wins on their D which is 11th ranked vs 50th ranked WSU.

(11) OKST @ TCU

         Tossup?

Oregon @ (12) Utah

          No

(13) USC @ UCLA

          No

(23) Florida @ (16) LSU

          Yes – Florida has a great rush defense and LSU can’t pass

(24) Stanford @ CAL

           No – CAL has a horrid defense

OT: Reportedly, Les Miles is interested in the Purdue job and wants to bring Sark along as OC

OT: Reportedly, Les Miles is interested in the Purdue job and wants to bring Sark along as OC

Submitted by ThatTCGuy on November 18th, 2016 at 4:40 PM

http://247sports.com/Article/College-football-coaching-search-Les-Miles…

I get Les being interested, by why would Sark even do that when he has the inside track to the Bama OC gig when Kiffin leaves? 

Profile of senior TE Michael Jocz

Profile of senior TE Michael Jocz

Submitted by PeteM on November 18th, 2016 at 2:18 PM

I just saw this profile of backup tight end Michael Jocz who plays his last game Saturday.  I went to the Minnesota game last year, and sat in the same row as his parents on the flight out there, but had no idea what kind of student he is (I suspect of a lot parents would've started talking about their kid's transcript 5 minutes into the conversation).  A 3.964 GPA while playing football is an amazing achievement.  Earlier this year Jocz was one of the player guests on the Harbaugh radio show, and I remember Harbaugh commenting that sometimes he has to join practice 20-30 minutes late due to this academic schedule, but that he's such a quick study he basically can step right in without missing a beat after seeing one rep. 

https://www.michigandaily.com/section/football/michigan-football-michae…

Game Day Weather

Game Day Weather

Submitted by mgoweather on November 18th, 2016 at 1:01 PM

Thank you for such nice comments last week! Very kind of you :) The weather, unfortunately, is not looking so kind. We have a strong low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region. While we're under the warm front Friday that means a some sun and very mild temps. But the cold front is swinging through overnight, bringing a few scattered rain showers, and behind it we turn much cooler. Don't be surprised if you see flurries flying through the day Saturday! Strong NW winds will also make it feel even colder than the readings on the thermometer. It's a day you'll definitely want all of those heavier layers! Let's bring home a win over Indiana!

Tailgating

Temps will be steadily falling through the overnight hours, reaching the mid 30s if you're up early. Winds will be out of the WSW at about 20mph (small trees will sway, you'd see a lot of white horses on the water) gusting up to around 30mph (large branches move, empty garbage cans may tip over). We do have a brief dry period right near sunrise towards mid-morning, so not a bad time to get the tent up - and tie it down. And then fire up that hot crockpot chili asap! Through mid-morning temps will be around 40 but the wind will have it feeling like the mid 30s. We bring back the chance for scattered showers/mix/flurries and that stays with us through lunch. Midday winds will be out of the W at 20mph gusting into the low 30s (whole trees sway, it can become a bit difficult to walk against the wind). 

Kickoff

39 degrees for this kickoff! Brrr! We'll have a lot of cloud cover, and don't rule out some wintry mix or flurries falling as the first whistle blows. Speaking of blowing (get your minds out of the gutter!) it'll be windy! Steady WNW winds are up into the low 20s and gusting into the low 30s. This wouldn't be a bad game to have some of those little hand warmers in your pocket! 

Halftime

Hot chocolate anyone? Losing a couple of degrees by the half! Mid 30s for the halftime show with the chance you'll see some wintry mix and flurries. Winds will be out of the NW still in the low 20s and gusting into the low 30s. That breeze will have it feeling like the upper 20s by now.

Post-Game

Dropping to the low 30s as we walk out of those gates, win in [heavily gloved but still half frozen] hand. Wind chills will have it feeling like 25 and we'll still have plenty of clouds, and the possibility of a few flurries. Winds will be steady inthe low 20s out of the NW, and we're not getting rid of those gusts anytime soon. They'll be into the mid 30s for the evening (if you were in a tall building you'd feel it sway). By the late night gusts will be up around 40mph (it can veer your car on the road) - that's gale force wind gusts, so be careful getting home if you're planning on staying out late! Temperature-wise, we'll be in the low 30s with mostly cloudy skies and a couple of flurries here and there. The wind chill will fall to around 20 degrees! We aren't expecting much snowfall accumulation, but don't be surprised to get a good dusting when all is said and done. If you traveled, Sunday in A2 will bring a few early flurries, some sun, and highs in the low 30s -with it feeling like the 20s all day thanks to a breezy NW wind. Let's go blue!! 

 

Christina Burkhart is the morning meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

PFF 2017 Mock 1st Rd - (2 Wolverines)

PFF 2017 Mock 1st Rd - (2 Wolverines)

Submitted by canzior on November 18th, 2016 at 10:32 AM

PFF has their 2017 Mock draft up: Notable/B1G Players listed:

1. Jonathan Allen DE

8. Malik McDowell DE

14. Jourdan Lewis - Saints 2nd corner off the board behind Tabor of Florida

15. Desmond King

17 Jabrill Peppers (mainly to go to a team with a single high safety so he can play in the box like Tennesee)

28. Ryan Ramczyk - Wisconsin

32 - Dawuane Smoot - Illinois

 

No Ohio State players, maybe not a suprise after last season. 

Thought Peppers would be higher.

Thought Lewis would be lower.

Only 2 QB (Watson, Rudolph)

12 - SEC,

6 - B1G,

3 - Big 12,

4 - ACC, + 1 ND, 

4 - PAC 12

1 - WMU

Link:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-jonathan-allen-myles-garrett-first-2017-mock-draft/?utm_source=email111716&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=colnl2016

Friday-Day-Before-Senior-Day-Day-After-Michigan-Killed-Marquette-At-MSG-Posbang

Friday-Day-Before-Senior-Day-Day-After-Michigan-Killed-Marquette-At-MSG-Posbang

Submitted by The Fugitive on November 18th, 2016 at 6:00 AM

Not sure if Marquette is turrible or if we are taking names this year...but the hoops squad looked pretty decent last night.  We have size down low (TWSS) and experience in the back court (also TWSS).

Senior day is tomorrow.  How about a roll call for those attening the game?

Finally, any weekend plans before the game tomorrow?

Beer, Wine and Food Festival in GR tonight is a good time.

LET'S BANG WITH ENTHUSIASM UNKNOWN TO MANKIND