Question about Defensive co-ordinator

Question about Defensive co-ordinator

Submitted by Dr. Steve on October 28th, 2010 at 9:11 PM

We came back to AA for the Iowa game. Hadn't been back for 24 years. Our 3rd generation grandaughter is now a Freshman Wolverine. We watched our defense get torched again after the first 2 series. That night at Zingermans we met an alum from the 70's. We bemoaned the defense. He now lives in Austin Texas. He said that when G. Robinson was the DC at Texas his teams were the worst defensive teams in the SWC. The year after he left, with the same players the new DC had them as the best in the conference. He also said that the guy the RR fired (from Stanford) has gone to I think Syracuse and they have the best defense in the conference. Is this true. If so, then RR has no knowledge of defensive football and should not be the head coach at Michigan. If these facts are not true then I apologize to RR and the board.   Dr. STeve

RR PSU Personnel Updates on Coaches Show

RR PSU Personnel Updates on Coaches Show

Submitted by Blue_Sox on October 28th, 2010 at 8:46 PM

While I'm getting a kick out of what's going on in the Chris L. Rucker thread, for anyone wanting to actually talk about some Michigan Football, Angelique Chengelis tweeted a few personnel updates that RichRod talked about on his Coaches Show tonight (all found here: https://twitter.com/#!/chengelis):

-Cam Gordon listed at both safety spots now

-Ray Vinopal listed at free safety (not sure if this means he will be starting or not but sounds like he may see the field)

-Marvin Robinson moved to LB

-Quinton Washington & Will Campbell moves look like they "will stick for now"

-Teric Jones has "progressed expect to see him play at Penn State"

-Stephen Hopkins: "Trying to get the big guy, Stephen Hopkins, some more reps. He's going to play more"

-They've also "moved defensive linemen around a bit"...not totally sure what that means, there's no elaboration.

 

I am most surprised to hear Teric Jones will be seeing the field. Didn't think he would play more than the BGSU game because he had so far to go apparently. Whose carries will he be taking? That should be interesting. Any other thoughts?

Report: Rucker Reinstated to MSU Team

Report: Rucker Reinstated to MSU Team

Submitted by Geaux_Blue on October 28th, 2010 at 6:47 PM

Now before this gets out of hand, this does not necessarily mean he will play but, rather, that he is likely free to practice, travel and suit up on Saturday. The Ticket is currently melting down with Spartan fans calling in yelling Stonum so I figured the post should be created with the caveat above before Michigan fans begin muddying the issue. 

 

Edit: Dantonio on Chris L playing on Saturday

"That's up to Rucker - there's risk involved."

Likely referring to the possibility of injury, not knowing the scheme but... alluding to the fact he's not necessarily being held out via disciplinary reasons

[FA Edit: Rather than trying to moderate every response to the troll(s), I'm just locking this thread. It's MSU news anyways, so it's not really important. I tried deleting several, but some comments worth saving were being deleted, too.]

Penn St Preview

Penn St Preview

Submitted by The Mathlete on October 28th, 2010 at 6:13 PM

All numbers included in this preview are using my PAN metric, Points Above Normal. PAN is essentially how many points above an average FBS team was a team/unit/player worth. For reference, an average FBS team is approximately equal to Northwestern or a top team from the MAC.

All games against FCS teams are excluded, as well as any plays in the second half where one team leads by more than 2 touchdowns or any end of half run-out-the-clock situations.

Unless otherwise noted, numbers include adjustment for opponent, which are starting to be more accurate as most teams have played at least half their schedule vs in-conference or quality non-conference opponents.

Rush Offense vs Penn St

Michigan Off +7 PAN, 2nd nationally, 1st Big Ten

PSU Def +1 , 53rd, 6th

image

Michigan has been well above average in every game this year and four of the six outings have been very positive. Alabama’s unit has been largely average. It had three decent performances and two below average games.

With Denard missing significant time against Iowa, the Cam Newton express has pushed Auburn into the #1 rushing spot nationally but Michigan is still a strong second. Cam also pushed Denard out of the top spot in the overall QB ratings but like the team rushing, Denard is still holding strong at #2, with all of Michigan’s +7 coming from him.

Hopkins has been the most efficiently productive back, averaging +1 in the games he has gotten carries, while Vincent Smith as netted out to +0 and Shaw is at –1.

With all of the injuries, Penn St may be able to slow the Michigan ground game but it should still be a big advantage for Michigan.

Pass Offense vs Penn St

Michigan Off +5, 16th, 2nd

PSU Def +2, 37th, 4th

image

Although the value and ranks are higher for the Penn St defense you’ll notice the large negative performance posted by the Nittany Lions when they faced their only other mobile QB against Illinois. Illinois had by far its best passing day of the season, leaving Penn St with an ugly –10 for the day.

Denard currently ranks 7th among Big Ten QBs in passing value but the team rating is much higher on the fact that Michigan is currently #2 nationally, having only allowed about 1.5 points lost due to sacks for the full season.

Hemingway, Roundtree and Stonum are presently ranked 10, 14, and 19 respectively among Big Ten receivers. Indiana is currently the only other team to have three receivers ranked in the top 20 in the Big Ten.

Even without an Illinois-level meltdown for the Nittany Lion pass defense, Michigan should still expect to come out ahead in the matchup through the air.

Rush Defense vs Penn St

Michigan Def –2, 93rd, 9th

Penn St Off –2, 96th, 9th

image

Two groups don’t get as evenly matched as the Penn St ground game and the Michigan rush defense. Both have the same value, nearly identical national ranks and both are #9 in the Big Ten. They both even have one terrible game (Iowa for PSU and MSU for Michigan) to go with a couple decent showings and a bunch of below average games.

When Royster has gotten carries he has been successful, ranking second individually among Big Ten running backs. Penn St just hasn’t been able to get him consistent carries and there hasn’t been any support behind him.

This shouldn’t be a matchup that is capable of killing the struggling Michigan defense. As long as Michigan can keep them from getting Royster a ton of carries a draw would be a likely outcome and a welcome showing.

Pass Defense vs Penn St

Michigan Def –3, 99th, 9th

PSU Off –3, 90th, 10th

image

Weakness on weakness. Just like the rush defense, the pass defense is in a pretty equal matchup. That is assuming that Penn St can match the production of their concussed true freshman quarterback with an upperclassman walk-on.

Michigan is hitting the critical portion of their schedule where they need to pick up some wins against the Big Ten’s three lowest rated quarterbacks. Robert Bolden is likely out on Saturday but he was already ranked dead last in the Big Ten quarterbacks with –3 per game.

Penn St has only produced one above average passing game of the season and that was against Kent St in Week 3. In about a half’s worth of time last weekend against lowly Minnesota, presumed Michigan starter Matt McGloin was –2.5 (unadjusted) despite throwing a pair of touchdown passes. In mop-up duty throughout the season, Kevin Newsome was –1 (unadjusted) in total for both rushes and passes.

No matter who the quarterback ends up being, these are the matchups over the next three Saturdays that Michigan’s pass defense has to make headway on to finish the season out strong.

Special Teams vs Penn St

Michigan –1.5, 108th, 11th

PSU +3.8, 14th, 1st

image

After four nice looking matchups, we get to the ugly one. Penn St has been very solid on special teams this season. The big score against Illinois is from two fumbled Illini punt returns. The Nittany Lions aren’t much of a threat to break a long return, but their punt and kickoff units, along with their kicker, have been among the best in the nation this season.

Penn St has the number one ranked KO cover unit with only one return past the 26 allowed on the season, and even that only went to the 35. Michigan’s strong offensive advantage should help neutralize any field position gains from Penn St’s good kicking units.

Prediction Almost Certain to Cost You Money if Taken Seriously

Michigan 35 Penn St 24

My model is calling for something closer than this but of the four major units, there is one great (Michigan Offense), one average (Penn St Defense) and two bad (Michigan Defense and Penn St Offense). Also part of the closer score is the big special teams disparity. I don’t think that will come to fruition because Penn St’s strength has come in the form of defensive field position but Michigan has proven this year that field position is largely irrelevant for their high-powered offense.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten

Iowa 28 Michigan St 26 – Sparty’s dream season could certainly clear it’s last major hurdle but I do think this is where it ends.

Northwestern 35 Indiana 31 – Should be a fun one to watch even if there isn’t much on the line.

Ohio St 42 Minnesota 17 – Another easy one for the Buckeyes

Illinois 27 Purdue 13 – The [NAME REDACTED] redemption tour continues

National games

Utah 35 Air Force 31

Georgia 31 Florida 28

Upset Special: USC 35 Oregon 34 – Despite the gaudy numbers, my database is still not sold on the Ducks due to their relatively weak schedule.

OT: Outside The Lines interviews David Sills' (13 year old USC commit) father

OT: Outside The Lines interviews David Sills' (13 year old USC commit) father

Submitted by CO Blue on October 28th, 2010 at 6:11 PM

It is an interesting piece about David Sills' (the 13 year old Kiffin commit) father and the Red Lion program that he supports.  There is also a reference to Sills' taking the month of April off from school to attend USC's spring camp.

(I apologize for not knowing how to embed the video. Advice welcome)

 

http://search.espn.go.com/david-sills/videos/6

OT: Help Watch Michigan Football on T-Mobile

OT: Help Watch Michigan Football on T-Mobile

Submitted by Croatian_Blue on October 28th, 2010 at 5:26 PM

So, during the Penn State game, I will be at Griffins game courtesy of my future father-in-law.  Of course, this is no good.  I really do not want to miss this game, so I need help.  

I have a MyTouch 3g (Android) on T-Mobile.  How can I watch/listen to this game on my phone?

Some good news on Defensive position switch

Some good news on Defensive position switch

Submitted by ciszew on October 28th, 2010 at 5:26 PM

One of the premium sites said in an article that Q. Washington is taking very well to the position switch.  They even used the word "Beast."  Obviously take it with a grain of salt, but I wanted to pass on some good news today.  I hope he becomes all conference after taking one for the team. 

A Halloween Statistical Look at Saturday's Game

A Halloween Statistical Look at Saturday's Game

Submitted by Mr. McBlue and… on October 28th, 2010 at 4:19 PM

This:

(The mad scientist himself)

 Inspired this:

I decided to take a look at all Rodriguez-led teams’ offensive output in games that have led up to or have shortly followed Halloween. These games are limited to the 2001 season through the present. In games that were more than 6 days prior to Halloween, I included the game immediately after Halloween (to provide a ghoulish insight to what the scientist does in his dark lair).

Included in this analysis is a breakdown of the weather for those games. This was to see if there is a correlation between the weather, offensive output, and team record going into a Halloween game. Plus, it provided me more stats to compile to pass the time.

By creating this diary I hope to shed some insight on what we might expect on Saturday, based upon the law of averages, from our leader, the mad-scientist. NOTE: Defensive statistics, our frightengly young defense, and the whole Beaver Stadium/Joe Pa dynamic are NOT looked at. I didn't consider those because to the mad scientist, it doesn't matter who is the opponent.

Course of career since 2001:

 Night Games– 5 Day Games – 7

Compiled Stats:

Date

Opponent

Score
(RR v. opp.)

Record Going Into Game

Rushing

Passing

1st Downs

10/25/01

Miami(FL)*

(3-45)

2-4

55 for 193

72/21att

16

10/26/02

Miami(FL)

(23-40)

5-2

62 for 363

60/18att

21

10/22/03

Va. Tech*

(28-7)

3-3

59 for 264

162/14att

21

11/01/03

UCF

(36-18)

4-3

57 for 303

161/17att

19

10/30/04

Rutgers

(35-30)

6-1

54 for 267

165/14att

18

10/15/05

Louisville

(46-44)

5-1

53 for 281

109/27att

20

11/02/05

UConn*

(45-13)

6-1

57 for 228

144/18att

22

10/20/06

UConn*

(37-11)

6-0

42 for 263

156/14att

17

11/02/06

Louisville*

(34-44)

7-0

50 for 318

222/21att

24

10/27/07

Rutgers

(31-3)

6-1

47 for 254

144/16att

15

10/25/08

Mich. State

(21-35)

2-5

31 for 84

168/27att

13

10/31/09

Illinois

(13-38)

5-3

43 for 113

264/24att

17

 

Avg.

(29.3-27.3)

(4.75-2)

51 for 244

152/19att

18.6

* = night game

Rushing Stats based on NET rushing per game

First downs include pass, rush, and penalty

All football related stats were compiled from www.ncaa.org.

Compiled Weather

Date

Game Location

Avg. Temp Recorded That Day

Dew Point

Wind

Precipitation

10/25/01

Miami, FL

81.3

75.6

4.5 knots

0.45”

10/26/02

Morgantown

54.8

51.7

4.9 knots

N/A

10/22/03

Morgantown

47.3

40.6

5.6 knots

0.02”

11/01/03

Morgantown

59.9

52.3

2 knots

0.08”

10/30/04

NewBrunswick

57.1

54.6

4.9 knots

0.04”

10/15/05

Morgantown

59.7

48.9

5 knots

0

11/02/05

Morgantown

47.4

40.9

3.1 knots

0.03”

10/20/06

Storrs

59.7

56.2

5.3 knots

0.16”

11/02/06

Louisville

38.8

23.4

8.7 knots

0.03”

10/27/07

NewBrunswick

63.4

59.5

8.5 knots

1.2”

10/25/08

Ann Arbor

46.7

41.4

9 knots

0”

10/31/09

Champaign

51.5

38.2

10.6 knots

0.65”

10/30/10
FORECAST

STATE COLLEGE

60 high
37 low
47-ish at kickoff

Not Available

WSW @ 14mph
12.1 knots

10% chance

All weather data from Farmer’s Almanac.

Forecast from weather.com

1mph = 0.868976242 knots (per google calculator)

So, what can we expect from looking at the charted weather and statistics, compared:

The two statistical outliers for the weather are Miami in 2001 and Louisville in 2006. Additionally, with this being a night game in State College, I doubt the temp at kickoff will be higher than the forecasted high of 60 degrees. So, New Brunswick circa 2007 will be removed. By removing those games from the averages, here is what we might expect for OUR game based upon past Rodriguez teams:

10/26/02

Miami(FL)

(23-40)

5-2

62 for 363

60/18att

21

10/22/03

Va. Tech*

(28-7)

3-3

59 for 264

162/14att

21

11/01/03

UCF

(36-18)

4-3

57 for 303

161/17att

19

10/30/04

Rutgers

(35-30)

6-1

54 for 267

165/14att

18

10/15/05

Louisville

(46-44)

5-1

53 for 281

109/27att

20

11/02/05

UConn*

(45-13)

6-1

57 for 228

144/18att

22

10/20/06

UConn*

(37-11)

6-0

42 for 263

156/14att

17

10/25/08

Mich. State

(21-35)

2-5

31 for 84

168/27att

13

10/31/09

Illinois

(13-38)

5-3

43 for 113

264/24att

17

Averages:

SCORE

RUSHING

PASSING

FIRSTDOWNS

31.5-26.2

51 for 240

154/19att

18.6

 

 

 

 

AVG. Temp

Dew Point

Wind

Precipitation

53.7

47.2

5.6

0.1”

In comparing the chart above with the weather-related outliers removed, the averages pan out to being virtually the same as with the outliers included. What does this tell us?  Well, despite the weather conditions and the opponent, a Rodriguez-led team, leading up to Halloween or shortly thereafter will:

Approximately score 30 points, giving up 27 – thereby making a spooctacularly close game. The mad scientist will get his gargoyles running for approximately 240 yards, net, and get his henchmen passing for 150 yards on 19 attempts.  (including penalties for 1stdowns, we will have 18 first downs).  Amazingly, our 5-2 record is on average with a Rodriguez led team at this time of the year.  Why not expect more of the same?

Further, the weather is pretty close to what has been forecasted for State College on Saturday. Granted the temp might be a bit lower since it is an evening game, but it is nothing that the mad-scientist hasn’t seen since coaching in 2001.

This means that, despite everything else, the mad-scientist always comes prepared for a Halloween game. I anticipate the mad-scientist having his team ready to beat the zombies known as Penn State. This is not a trick - I think we are in for a treat (okay, someone had to do it - it might as well be me).

I do predicate all of this on one thing, though.  BEWARE OF THE SPOOKIEST COSTUME OF ALL, for even this the mad scientist hath no answer:

 

Enjoy the game fellas (and ladies).

Quick SB Nation Question

Quick SB Nation Question

Submitted by Ziff72 on October 28th, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Just a quick question for the community.  I was trying to look at BSD for some PSU content and of course the content is weak and worthless.   Then I went on the boards and found that frustrating.

That got me to click other links.   Long story short it appears most of the other blogs are run on SBNation.   The content on most sites is weak, the formatting gives me a headache and  I hate the formatting of the boards.

I'm obviously used to the MGOBLOG formatting and how things work here so I was wondering  is it just because I'm unfamiliar with it that I find it frustrating or do you guys find the other sites useful and I just don't know how to use it? 

Thanks for the input.