SIAP, initial Vegas line has us 19.5 point underdogs

SIAP, initial Vegas line has us 19.5 point underdogs

Submitted by bluewave720 on November 21st, 2010 at 9:40 PM

It has dropped in literally the past 5 minutes to as low as 18 points (Leroy's).  

I know Vegas doesn't offer an overt prediction, but shit, that's depressing.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

TomVH: Justice Hayes Update

TomVH: Justice Hayes Update

Submitted by TomVH on November 21st, 2010 at 8:56 PM

Wanted to post this separately so everyone saw it. RB Justice Hayes has decommitted from Notre Dame. He's now considering Tennessee, Notre Dame, and Michigan.

I spoke to him briefly about it, and he said that Michigan is in it for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tennessee get him either, though since DeAnthony Arnett is his friend. 

WInEx's BCS Bowl Analysis

WInEx's BCS Bowl Analysis

Submitted by Wolverine In Exile on November 21st, 2010 at 8:47 PM

BCS standings for Wk 13 as of 8:15p EDT (bcsfootball.org):

1 Oregon .9764
2 Auburn .9682
3 TCU .8995
4 Boise State .8860
5 LSU .8193
6 Stanford .7763
7 Wisconsin .7688
8 Ohio State .7148
9 Oklahoma State .6815
10 Michigan State .6063
11 Alabama .6019
12 Arkansas .5697
13 Oklahoma .5041
14 Missouri .4564
15 Nebraska .4423
16 Virginia Tech .4213
17 Texas A&M .3607
18 South Carolina .3583
19 Nevada .2943
20 Utah .1961

Pretty much there are still limited permuations of the BCS if the favorites continue to win... I'm going to start with the pretty much locks:

ACC, Big East, and Big 12 will likely only get one team in the BCS game. ACC and Big East due to the general ineptness of the conferences. These will likely be:

  • ACC: winner of  Va Tech v Florida St/NC St championship game. This winner will go to the Orange Bowl.
  • Big East: Who the hell knows... could be Pitt, West Va, even UConn(!!! who would have thought that the most impressive win on our schedule at the end of the year could be a BCS conference champion NOT named Ohio St). Bottom line is this team will likely be the last team picked by BCS bowls when picking opponents for the mandatory games.
  • Big 12: With last night's choke loss by Nebraska, all this did was make it more difficult for a Big 12 team to get an at large bid. It likely will be the winner of Oklahoma v Oklahoma St against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, with the either a 1-loss conference champ and a 3-loss runner up, or a pair of two loss teams. Anybody hoping Nebraska wins and goes all Chris Benoit on the last night of Monday Nite Nitro by accepting the conference title trophy and then dumping it in the trash bin on the way out the door?
  • SEC: They're still probably going to get 2 teams in the BCS no matter what. If Auburn gets in the BCS champ game, then a 1-loss LSU or a 2-loss Arkansas is your likely 2nd team in the Sugar Bowl. If Auburn loses to Alabama, it'll be the winner of the SEC champ game as the Sugar Bowl rep and a 1-loss LSU/2-loss Arkansas/2-loss Alabama as an at-large. If Auburn beats Alabama but loses in the SEC championship to So Car, it'll be So Car in the Sugar Bowl and either LSU or Auburn as an at-large. Even if Cam Newton is arrested tomorrow for money laundering and fraud at Fannie Mae, bottom line: SEC's getting 2 teams. Damn.
  • Non-AQ's: One of them is getting in for sure. Two is wholly dependent on if Boise or TCU qualifies for the Natl Champ game. B/c of a contractural quirk for this year, if a non-AQ makes it as an at-large and a Pac-10 team is in the MyNCG, then the non-AQ must go to the Rose Bowl. Still a shot for an at-large in the Orange Bowl, but that may be dictated by who wins the ACC (see below).

So assuming the season holds in terms  of chalk teams winning, we'll be looking at:

  • BCS Champ: Oregon v Auburn
  • Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. TCU/Boise (whoever ends up higher in BCS if they're both undefeated, autobid as per BCS selection rule 3A/B)
  • Sugar Bowl: LSU/Arkansas/Alabama vs. at-large
  • Orange Bowl: Va Tech/FlaSt/NC St  v. at-large
  • Fiesta Bowl: Neb/OkSt/OU v. at-large

So let's analyze the competition for the at-large slots. It is impertive to understand that the order of selection will play HUGE in this decision. I'll analyze them in the  order of the at-large selections:

  • Sugar Bowl: already made LSU the replacement pick for Auburn in the MyNCG (but it could just as easy by Arkansas if they beat LSU or Alabama if Auburn loses the Iron Bowl but wins the SEC). So looking for 1 at-large team to match-up against LSU. The choices are either a 1-loss Big Ten team (tOSU, Mich St), a 1-loss Stanford, or an undefeated Boise St/TCU (whichever left out of the Rose Bowl- at this point it's still Boise St as TCU is higher in BCS and gets the non-AQ autobid). My thinking is that from a bowl organizers point of view, a Big Ten team, especially tOSU probably gets more butts in seats and generates a better TV viewership than Stanford. So now the choise is really between tOSU and an undefeated non-AQ. Since a non-AQ is already in the BCS, I say tOSU gets the at-large slot
  • Orange Bowl: Already have the ACC champ... if it's Va tech, then a Boise at-large here is unlikely as common thought is to avoid rematches (especially since it wasn't that good of a game in the first case). Va Tech vs Stanford might be attractive here, or the Orange might bite the bullet if convinced by the rest of the BCS hierarchy and take the Big East champ. If it's not Va Tech, then Boise might be a good selection to prop up a not as attractive FlaSt / NC St ACC champ.
  • Fiesta Bowl: already have the Big 12 winner, so looking for someone to matchup with Neb / Ok St / OU. Here its a crap shoot and dependent on who the Orange takes. Orange takes Boise, then the Big East champ has to go here. Orange doesn't take Boise and takes the Big East champ, then I could see either Stanford or Boise St, and frankly a Big 12 v Boise St rematch may be more  viewer friendly than Stanford (especially if Boise St has a Heisman finalist Kellan Moore at QB, sorry Andrew Luck). Stanford though is still a national name (albeit with a weak in-person following), and I'm torn. I'd say you could flip a coin and land with either Stanford or Boise St.

 

The wrenches in the plan

There are a couple big wrenches that could be thrown in the gears here:

  • the Big Ten doesn't end up with both Ohio St and Wisconsin with 1-loss: in real terms, a 1-loss Mich St doesn't matchup as well in a at-large comparison with undefeated Boise St or a 1-loss Stanford if they don't get the Rose Bowl bid. They way it's working right now, if Sparty ties with Wiscy only, then they''ll get the Rose Bowl as a result of a head to head win against the Badgers. Wisconsin then would still be a pretty strong at-large bid for either the Sugar or Orange Bowl. If its Mich St and tOSU, then tOSU will get the Rose Bowl and Sparty will be left to fend for the at-large against Boise & Stanford, and frankly I don't think they win that comparison.
  • tOSU jumps Wiscy in BCS standings: this one just popped up this week when I actually looked at the numbers... tOSU is not that far behind, maybe there's a voter backlash against Bielema in the last two weeks??? Who  knows. What I know is that if tOSU jumps Wiscy in BCS standing, then the three way tie formula in the Big Ten sends Ohio St to the Rose Bowl, and leave Wiscy and Mich St battling Stanford and Boise St for an at-large. At this point, I think its a real possibility that Boise AND Stanford are looked more favorably than Wiscy and Mich St. Especially if Stanford keeps rolling out body bags and some body gets sentimental at the Sugar Bowl for a Bo Schembechler reunion tour game between Harbaugh and Miles.
  • Oregon loses: that vaults either TCU or Boise into the MyNCG, Oregon to the Rose Bowl and then by my reading, as long as the other TCU / Boise team is still in the rule 3A/B auto-bid position, they'll get in as an auto-bid, probably in the Sugar or Fiesta and knock out Stanford or a 2nd Big Ten team from the BCS
  • Auburn loses: here it matters when Auburn loses. they lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl but beat So Car, they still have a shot at the MyNCG bid as the #2 team. They lose to So Car in the SEC champ, they'll be in a fight with LSU for an at-large in the Orange Bowl, since So Car will be in the Sugar Bowl, and the Sugar won't have SEC v SEC (Orange Bowl will almost certainly pick a 2nd SEC team over the Big East champ or anybody else)

Your weekly sign of the apolcalypse:

  • Still looks like only way Boise and TCU meet in the MyNCG is if Auburn and Oregon lose, most likely Auburn losing in the SEC championship game. But if that happens, both non-AQ's are well positioned with human pollsters to jump into the #1 / #2 slot needed to overcome computer softness. There's some open politic-ing going on with Les Miles trying to say LSU w/ 1-loss should be ahead of the non-AQ undefeateds, but I don't think that's going to sway voters.... UNLESS
  • If the Cam Newton thing goes REALLY BAD and he's found to have been ineligible for this season, preferably after the Iron Bowl, then Auburn will have to forfeit all games he played in (all of them), become ineligible as a team for the BCS, and THEN you might see southern voters backlash against the ruling and cast all their Auburn muscle that was in the polls behind the next likliest SEC-brotherhood team.... LSU. I would think there'd be enough of a majority of voters who finally throw up their hands if this happened and just say, "all right TCU/Boise St, with all this shit going this year, here's your ONE TIME golden ticket", but keep your eyes peeled about this if the Cam Newton things breaks toward ineligibility in teh next week or so.

See you next week as the picture becomes much clearer after the Big  Ten season wraps up and the Iron Bowl is played.

Bielema ordered chop block on Mike Martin

Bielema ordered chop block on Mike Martin

Submitted by InRodWeTrust333 on November 21st, 2010 at 4:57 PM

From TheWolverine.com

After the game Saturday, Bielema said his offensive line -- which grinds opposing defenses into dust by pulling its guards and ramming them into linebackers downfield -- was prevented from pulling by Michigan. He used the word "tactics," which is coaching code for "holding," to describe what Michigan's defensive line was doing. 
"But we rectified the situation," Bielema said. 
When asked how, Bielema recalled a chop-block penalty that went against his team -- and took a touchdown off the scoreboard -- in the second quarter. Wisconsin lost seven points but delivered a message.

So yeah, he's a good coach, and Wisconsin was clearly the better team on Saturday, but this is just wrong.

http://michigan.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1155909

A glimpse ahead to 2011

A glimpse ahead to 2011

Submitted by rbgoblue on November 21st, 2010 at 4:45 PM
I know its a little premature, but lets look at the top 4 teams in the Big 10 and who we won't see around here any more.*
 
* I looked at current depth charts according to rivals.com for consistency, and made note of current starters who are departing after this season
 
Ohio State
RB – Brandon Saine
WR – Taurian Washington
WR – Dane Sanzenbacher
G – Justin Boren
G – Bryant Browning
DE – Cameron Heyward
DT – Dexter Larimore
LB – Ross Homan
LB – Brian Rolle
CB – Chimdi Chekwa
CB – Devon Torrence
S – Jermale Hines
 
Wisconsin
 
QB – Scott Tolzien
WR – Isaac Anderson
WR – David Gilreath
TE – Lance Kendricks
OT – Gabe Carimi
G – John Moffit
LB – Blake Sorensen
LB - Culmer St. Jean
CB – Niles Brinkley
CB – Marcus Cromartie
S – Jay Valai
 
Michigan State
WR – Mark Dell
TE – Charlie Gnatt
OT – DJ Young
OT – J'Michael Deane
C – John Stipek
DE – Colin Neely
LB – Eric Gordon
LB – Greg Jones
S – Marcus Hyde
 
Iowa
QB – Ricky Stanzi
FB – Brett Morse
WR – Durell Johnson-Kilianos
TE – Allen Reisner
G – Julian Vandervelde
G – Josh Koeppel
DE – Christian Ballard
DE – Adrian Clayborn
DT – Karl Klug
LB – Troy Johnson
LB – Jeremia Hunter
S – Brett Greenwood
 
Its clear that some of our stiffest competition will be losing key contributors after this year.  Lets compare to the situation that Michigan.  I present the departing seniors from our current 2-deep:
 
G – Stephen Schilling
OT – Perry Dorrenstein
TE – Martell Webb
DE – Greg Banks
LB – Obi Ezeh
LB – Jonas Mouton
CB – James Rodgers
 
We may not have the roster to compete with the top teams in the B10 this season due to our roster, however looking at our losses compared to theirs, its a huge net-positive moving forward.  All 4 teams will lose key parts of their linebacking corps.  DE's Heyward and Coleman (not to mention Kerrigan - not listed) will go, and JJ Watt could enter the draft.  Senior QB's in Tolzein and Stanzi are graduating, and neither team has proven to have a competent backup this season.  OSU will always be tough.  MSU will still be decent on offense next year, but I think things look good for Michigan putting a roster on the field that can be expected to contend for a B10 championship.

Wisconsin is good. After this past weekend, they are still good.

Wisconsin is good. After this past weekend, they are still good.

Submitted by BigBlue02 on November 21st, 2010 at 4:20 PM

I just thought I would throw up Wisconsin's offensive numbers for the year to see if everyone actually realizes how good they are:

YPG - 440.3

Pass YPG - 207.6

Rush YPG - 239.9

PPG - 40.9

I get that our defense didn't play well against Wisonsin's offense this past weekend, but with 1 game left in the season, they have the 7th best scoring offense in the nation (which is better than our offense). It is almost like everyone disliking GERG and RichRod are acting surprised and shocked just so they can find something to bitch about with the team. Wait, it isn't almost like that, it is exactly like that. The Wisconsin offense is one of the best in the nation. They gained more rushing yards against us than they average and had one score more than they average. Did you really expect our horrid defense to hold them 10 or 15 points under their season average?

And before you bring out the Indiana debacle, even without that game, they are still averaging 37 points per game. That would put them at 14th in the nation right ahead of our offense.

TomVH: LB Ryan Petro Update

TomVH: LB Ryan Petro Update

Submitted by TomVH on November 21st, 2010 at 3:39 PM

I'll have the full conversation in tomorrow's Weekly Update, but Florida LB Ryan Petro (6'3", 205 lbs.) just left Michigan. He said, "The visit was amazing. If they were to offer I would probably commit." He'll back for an official most likely December 10th, but it's not set in stone yet. 

He has his own website with highlights and info here. The coaches told him he could potentially fill an outside linebacker/safety hybrid role because of his athleticism.