dink and dunk at the NFL level

dink and dunk at the NFL level

Submitted by blueheron on December 4th, 2010 at 7:48 AM

NYT article about the New England Patriot offense:

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/04/sports/football/04patriots.html?hpw

Its "spread" features are noted in the article.

So, I guess it's maybe not true that the spread won't work in cold weather and that it's a gimmick offense suited only for mediocre college teams.  /s

- - -

Another NYT article, on Oregon football, that made me think of RichRod's offense (and its potential):

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/05/magazine/05Football-t.html?hpw

Why is it, again, that people are so in love with SMASHMOUTH football?

Dee Hart stats 12/3

Dee Hart stats 12/3

Submitted by Maize and Blue… on December 4th, 2010 at 6:04 AM

Since we still have a chance with him.  It appears if he's not going to enroll early out of concerns for who his coach would be that he's giving us every chance in the world.

Last night DP fell behind by 2 TDs but rallied to win 38-28.  Hart had 21 carries for 218 yards and 2 TDs.  Accounted for 324 total yards and had two TDs called back due to penalties.  On the negative side he lost two fumbles- too much on his mind maybe?

Cullen Christian Loves Him Some RR

Cullen Christian Loves Him Some RR

Submitted by antonio_sass on December 4th, 2010 at 3:20 AM

Again, from a GBW poster who is friends with him on facebook:

Cullen Buc-Nasty Christian Dear Coach Rod,
keep your head up! people dont understand you, but the team and I do. i understand that you are trying to change us from boys to men, i also understand that its about more than w's and l's. i feel bad, out of all the positive things you said last night and all year, people always find ways to turn the good to the bad. dont worry your team got ya back, will see what they say in 2011

Tennessee Football 2010: A Primer

Tennessee Football 2010: A Primer

Submitted by steve sharik on December 4th, 2010 at 3:02 AM

http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?year=2010&org=694

  • #100 Rush Offense
  • #35 Pass Offense
  • #72 Total Offense
  • #64 Scoring Offense (27 ppg)
  • #64 Rush Defense
  • #82 Pass Defense
  • #70 Total Defense
  • #56 Scoring Defense (24.67 ppg)
  • #32 TO Margin (+5)
  • #18 in TOs gained (26)
  • #87 3rd Down Conversions (36.42%)
  • #66 3rd Down Coversion Defense (39.77%)
  • #91 in Gaining 1st Downs (17.58 pg)
  • #59 in Allowing 1st Downs (19.5 pg)
  • #99 Red Zone Offense (<50% TD rate)
  • #27 Red Zone Defense (allowed only 24 TDs on 44 drives)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

  • Michigan is currently #47 in overall FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index)
  • Tennesse is #62

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

  • Michigan is #30 in S&P (a combo of success rate [50% of yards to go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, 100% on 3rd and/or 4th down] and points per play)
  • Tennessee is #53

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus2010

  • The Football Outsiders Use F/+ as their "official" rankings.  F/+ is a combo of FEI and S&P.
  • Michigan is #36
  • Tennessee is #55

It looks like if we can take care of the football, this is a very winnable game.

Interesting USA Today article about RR's speech

Interesting USA Today article about RR's speech

Submitted by kaykaybroke on December 4th, 2010 at 2:18 AM

interesting story about the reactions to RR's speech, didn't like the criticism part, but liked the Schilling quote at the very end:

"Great experience," Schilling said. "The wins and losses haven't gone our way, but it's a good experience. I believe in Coach Rod and the system and what he's doing here with the coaches, and I think there will be a lot of success in the future if he's able to stay here."

alot of people were speculating whether the players should show their support or not.. I think it's great that Schilling has stepped up to his leadership role, and hopefully became an example for other teammembers to follow suit.

link: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2010/12/rich-rodriguez-criticized-for-emotional-night-at-michigan-banquet/1

Memories of the 1985 Michigan Football Team

Memories of the 1985 Michigan Football Team

Submitted by tybert on December 4th, 2010 at 1:07 AM

Lost in the crapola being written by Terry Foster, Drew Sharp, and others regarding the Football Bust, missing were ANY stories whatsoever about one of Bo's BEST and FAVORITE teams, namely the 1985 Michigan Wolverines. After all, they were the guest of honor at the frigging banquet, weren't they?!?!?

Well, because those dirty rotten bastards DIDN'T talk about the 1985 Team like they SHOULD HAVE, sit back and enjoy the story of one of Bo's finest teams (the TEAM, the TEAM, the TEAM!!!!).

This team, along with the 1976, 1980, and 1997 teams, rank among my favorite UM teams. I don't count the '69 team (although a wonderful one at that), simply because I was too young to remember them.

The 1985 season was my senior year at UM. The team was coming off the ignominy of a 6-6 season and was not ranked in the Top 20 rankings (Top 25 ranking didn't come into vogue until later on). That was a 2nd for a Bo team (the '69 team didn't enter the Top 20 until week 2). Call me foolishly optimistic, but I had an inkling that this team would NOT disappoint the Michigan faithful!

Some defensive minded coach at MSU had beaten UM the year before in Ann Arbor and was the talk of the state. Old Bo was washed up, or so it seemed.

1985 Michigan Football season (as through my eyes and ears)

 
Date Opponent/Score/Location Memories
9/14 Notre Dame, W 20-12, Ann Arbor
  • Sitting in my nice senior seats, the D looked fine. Plenty aggressive. Gang tackling exhibition.
  • The O looked lethargic in the 1st half.
  • We trailed 9-3 at halftime. ND was going to get the KO to start the 2nd half.
  • Finally...good karma returned to the UM sideline, as ND muffed the 2nd half kickoff and special teams ace Dieter Heren recovered near the 15 yd line.
  • The comatose O set up for a 3rd down and long near the 10. One of my favorite Harbaugh calls - a QB draw surprises the ND Defense, as Harbaugh dives in for the score to put us up 10-9.
  • We stop a late ND drive inside our 20 with a diving interception from Doug Mallory.
  • Those foolishly optimistic feelings I felt during the summer begin to come true. Maybe I was onto something here, and it wasn't just the sun baking my head and giving me silly ideas.
9/21 South Carolina, 34-3, Columbia
  • Watched this one on TV. SC was a Top 20 team.
  • Utter and complete domination by UM. Now I know that I wasn't getting foolishly optimistic thoughts, while my head was getting baked out on the golf courses all summer long.
  • I about fell out of the recliner when even avowed UM-hater Beano Cook mentioned that this might be Bo's best team (egads, what next, dogs and cats sleeping together?!?!?)
9/28 Maryland, 20-0, Ann Arbor
  • Through a mix-up, I actually sold my regular ticket and hoped to buy one in another friend's section. Found out that I couldn't get one for that section and bought one in the South EZ, practically splitting the uprights on this fine sunny day.
  • Maryland was the SI #1 team (and we know what kind of Jinx that brings). Actually, Maryland ended a pretty good 9-3 season when it was all said and done, but this day belonged to the OTHER UM, namely our boys in blue.
  • Three big memories ---
  • We had a 3rd and short in our end. The "old" Bo rams it through the line and tries to outmuscle the D. Maryland is stacked to stop anything inside. Instead, we hit a pass down the middle to the TE for a huge gain. The crowd cheers wildly, both the result of the play and the way Bo showed he could mix things up.
  • We fumbled inside Maryland's 5 with the outcome still in doubt. Pissed off Michigan defenders pop the RB on a dive and force a fumble that we recover. We score a TD shortly after.
  • Maryland has the ball inside out 10, needing to score to make it a real game. This play is right down in front of me. Maryland's QB throws a Threet-like pass into heavy coverage. It must have been tipped by every Michigan man on the field, including the hot dog guy and the drum major. Miraculously, Doug Mallory dives and comes up with the ball in the EZ. Now I KNOW that my foolishly optimistic thoughts about this season are going to come true!
10/5 Wisconsin, 33-6, Ann Arbor
  • Crappy, rainy, windy day. You could still bring umbrellas into the stadium those days, but being a stubborn student, of course I don't bring one!
  • Wisky scores the FIRST TD all year vs. our D, but bobbles the snap on the PAT.
  • We get a Pick Six to ice the game.
  • Damn I'm soaked and need a warm place and a beer or two or three.
10/12 MSU, 31-0, Least Lansing
  • REVENGE day. Got tickets from my MSU friends. Went with my college roommate. Sat in the visitors EZ.
  • Another dominant UM performance. We actually had good special teams in those days. Block a punt for a TD.
  • The crowd around me is about 50/50 UM/MSU fans. Still remember a guy lamenting "what are you going to do now, George?" - George being the one-time MSU coach and now politician of sorts. Well, fellow, it's 4th and 13, so George should punt!
  • Get to see Bo interviewed right down in front of us.
  • I don't think MSU got a 1st down the entire 2nd half
10/19 Iowa, 12-10 LOSS, Iowa City
  • The one time our karma failed us. Watched this one on TV and thought for sure that we'd beat the Iowa team that handed us our last shutout (26-0) the previous year.
  • The one was a classic for the ages. Iowa #1, Michigan #2. UM up 10-9 with 2 seconds to go. Dammit, Paul Jokisch if you were only 9' 8" and not 6' 8" we might have blocked it.
  • Brad Cochran was a great DB for us that year, but couldn't hold onto a gave-clinching INT late in the game (an Iowa guy made a good play to strip him of the ball).
10/26 Indiana, 42-15, Ann Arbor
  • My last Homecoming as a student. Warm late fall day.
  • We make silly mistakes and are flat in the 1st half, score tied 15-15.
  • Bo takes care of the flatness leftover from the Iowa loss and the team roars out and dominates in the 2nd half.
  • All's well that ends well.
11/2 Illinois, 3-3, Champaign
  • Back in the days BEFORE OT and before every game was on TV, missed this one, except on the radio. Bo and Mike White (UI coach) were mortal enemies.
  • Crappy day again, UM has chance to score a late TD but fumbles near the goal line.
  • Absolutely atrocious refereeing again.
  • Illinois tries for winning FG, Heren gets a piece of the ball and it hits the crossbar and bounces back. We celebrate as if we had just WON the game.
  • Nevertheless, the tie doesn't hurt us. Iowa loses at OSU the same day. We still need Iowa to lose another game anyway.
11/9 Purdue, 47-0, Ann Arbor
  • One of the top 5 best Michigan D performances I've witnessed in person. Another crappy, windy, rainy day (that year, we either had nice warm sunshine or crap and rain, nothing in between)
  • Jim Everett, next years #3 overall pick in the NFL draft, had torched out secondary the previous year for 290 yds, ala Rick Stanzi, Ben Chappell etal did against this D.
  • Purdue gets 104 yds total offense (this team was lighting up defenses all season).

 

 

11/16 Minnesota, 48-7, Minny
  • I had a crappy excuse for missing this game - homework on my design project.
  • Got score updates from a grad student and remember hearing that we were up something like 34-0 at half.
  • Minny was coached by Lou Holtz and would go to a bowl game (under the repalcement) after Lou blew town to go to work for ESPN (he had a stop or two in between)
11/23 Ohio State, 27-17, Ann Arbor
  • My last home game as a student. Snow on the ground, colder than a witch's tit, real Big 10 FB weather.
  • Our kicker had gotten suspended before the game (sound familiar on the eve of an OSU game?)
  • Jamie Morris fumbles early in the game, some fellow by the name of Spielman hits him. In those days, if you fumbled, Bo yanked you for what seemed like a million years.
  • We tie it up and then take the lead 20-10.
  • OSU throws up a hail mary on 4th and long in the 4th quarter, of course, future studio host Cris Carter (word from Buddy Ryan is that Carter ONLY catches touchdowns) is in the vicinity and comes down with a TD, we are only ahead 20-17 with most of the 4th qaurter to go. Man, now I'm freaking cold and getting nervous.
  • This is where the "newer" Bo showed his changed colors. After a short gain on a dive, Harbaugh hits Kolesar for a 77-yd TD right down freaking in front of my friend and I. Best seats in the house for the game AND that play. Jimmy gets drilled just as he throws the ball but lofts a beautiful pass to the speeding Kolesar. Other than the Woodson PR TD, I don't remember that stadium ever being so loud.
  • We go ahead 27-17 and shutdown the Bucks.
  • No senior season is finished until we go and hang out on the field, freezing out butts off all the while, and looking for a good place to warm up with a whole lotta brewskys.
1/1 Nebraska, 27-23, Fiesta Bowl
  • One of the best bowl games of the season. Watch on TV with my sister. We absolutely SUCKED in the 1st half (down 14-3). It was like the 1984 6-6 team had showed up to play.
  • Thankfully, Nebraska decided to play give-away and we rally to take a 27-14 lead. A late NU TD and an intentional safety make it 27-23.
  • We pick off a well-overthrown pass in the EZ to wrap it up.
  • Those silly, crazy, foolishly optimistic thoughts, baked into my head during the previous summer, come to fruition. 

No D Hart new is good news?

No D Hart new is good news?

Submitted by REDvsBLUE on December 4th, 2010 at 1:01 AM

Is anybody else a little surprised we didn't hear anything from D Hart today?  I thought the rumors were that he was going to make an announcement after his playoff game today.  Correct me if I am wrong but I have found nothing today about it.  Please advise, many thanks.

 

FYI Dr. Phillips won 38-28 today so congrats to them.

Graph Theory Division I Ranking

Graph Theory Division I Ranking

Submitted by joeyb on December 4th, 2010 at 12:15 AM

First of all, I should thank Coach Schiano for the idea for this ranking system. I've taken the concept from his diary, made a few tweaks, and applied it to all FBS and FCS teams. If you need an explanation of what is happening, I suggest reading there first.

So, the first thing that I did was I loaded all of the game results thus far (excluding last night and this night) into a database. Then, I was able to write a script that built paths between every combination of teams with the lowest possible value. So, MSU beat Wisconsin and Wisconsin beat OSU. The first step is to create paths of length 1 for those two games. After that, I can calculate the value of the path from MSU to OSU and then create a direct path of length 2 between them. Iowa's path to OSU is 3 and so on.

Once I had calculated the minimum value for all possible paths, I averaged out the values and had a very redimentary ranking. This is the exact system that was used in the original diary to rank the teams of the Big Ten, but now we have expanded the teams to compare.

Original, Unweighted, Without Record
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Missouri
Oklahoma
Arkansas
TCU
Texas A&M
South Carolina
Oregon
Navy
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Michigan State
Ohio State
Stanford
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Boise State
Florida State
Michigan
North Carolina State
North Carolina
Utah
Arizona

As you can see, this isn't a very accurate reflection of the best teams in college football. It took me a few minutes to figure out what was going on, but it became clear when I realized that Michigan was on there. The problem is that this system strongly favors a diversified schedule. The more teams that you beat that don't play each other, the better chance you have of getting 2 or 3 length paths.

The first thing that I tried to do to fix this was to weight the games. Instead of automatically giving a team a path of length one for a win, I started dividing that by the number of scores (8 points) that a team won by. So, winning by 24 points, or 3 scores, would give you a path length of .333 over that team. This works out really well because it benefits teams that win by 2 or 3 scores, but it doesn't benefit teams too much for going beyond that.

Weighted, Without Record
Oregon
Stanford
Missouri
Oklahoma
Nebraska
South Carolina
TCU
Alabama
Texas A&M
Ohio State
Boise State
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Auburn
Florida State
California
Notre Dame
Iowa
Arkansas
Michigan State
Navy
Arizona
Virginia Tech
USC
Nevada

This seemed to get me a lot closer to where we want to be with a poll, but there are still some issues. How can Auburn be ranked 14 and Missouri be ranked 3? Well, now there is too much weight on winning strong games. But wait, if that's the case, then why isn't Wisconsin ranked in the top 10? That's because all of their blowouts came in the Big Ten. Wisconsin looked like a pretty bad team at the beginning of the year because they won some very close games against lesser opponents.

The only way that I could figure to solve the problems with overweighting is to add another weighting component, which is actually pretty obvious. I decided to add a winning percentage multiplier at the end. Originally, I figured that the concept of graph theory would account for winning. What it really does is account for beating the right teams, i.e. it is the strength of schedule calculation. The reason that I went with a winning percentage is because I don't want to give an advantage to teams playing Hawaii or in championship games, so raw wins was out of the question. I also need a way to penalize a team that loses a 13th game. The only way to do this is to do a winning percentage. 13-0 and 12-0 are now 1.000. 12-1 and 11-1 are only .006 apart. This gives a slight benefit to teams playing an extra game, but also makes sure to penalize properly for losses.

  Weighted, With Record
1 Oregon
2 TCU
3 Stanford
4 Auburn
5 Ohio State
6 Boise State
7 Wisconsin
8 Oklahoma
9 Missouri
10 Nebraska
11 Michigan State
12 Nevada
13 Oklahoma State
14 Arkansas
15 South Carolina
16 Virginia Tech
17 Alabama
18 LSU
19 Texas A&M
20 Utah
21 Florida State
22 Northern Illinois
23 Navy
24 West Virginia
25 Hawaii
29 Delaware (Highest rated FCS Team)
31 Jacksonville State (Beat Ole Miss)
36 Notre Dame
39 Appalachian State
44 Florida
45 Connecticut
52 Michigan
85 James Madison
110 Massachusetts

As you can see, this looks like a real ranking now and it won't automatically place an undefeated team ahead of a 1-loss team. I'm pretty excited about the outcome, because this is actually pretty comparable to the polls that are out there. How comparable?

My Poll R BCS R D AP R D Coaches R D Harris R D Computer Average R D
Oregon 1 Oregon 2 1 Oregon 1 0 Oregon 1 0 Oregon 1 0 Oregon 2 1
TCU 2 TCU 3 1 TCU 3 1 TCU 3 1 TCU 3 1 TCU 3 1
Stanford 3 Stanford 4 1 Stanford 5 2 Stanford 5 2 Stanford 5 2 Stanford 4 1
Auburn 4 Auburn 1 3 Auburn 2 2 Auburn 2 2 Auburn 2 2 Auburn 1 3
Ohio State 5 Ohio State 6 1 Ohio State 6 1 Ohio State 6 1 Ohio State 6 1 Ohio State 9 4
Boise State 6 Boise State 11 5 Boise State 9 3 Boise State 10 4 Boise State 10 4 Boise State 14 8
Wisconsin 7 Wisconsin 5 2 Wisconsin 4 3 Wisconsin 4 3 Wisconsin 4 3 Wisconsin 7 0
Oklahoma 8 Oklahoma 9 1 Oklahoma 10 2 Oklahoma 9 1 Oklahoma 9 1 Oklahoma 6 2
Missouri 9 Missouri 12 3 Missouri 15 6 Missouri 14 5 Missouri 14 5 Missouri 10 1
Michigan State 11 Michigan State 8 3 Michigan State 7 4 Michigan State 7 4 Michigan State 7 4 Michigan State 11 0
Nebraska 10 Nebraska 13 3 Nebraska 13 3 Nebraska 13 3 Nebraska 13 3 Nebraska 15 5
Nevada 12 Nevada 17 5 Nevada 14 2 Nevada 17 5 Nevada 15 3 Nevada 17 5
Oklahoma State 13 Oklahoma State 14 1 Oklahoma State 16 3 Oklahoma State 15 2 Oklahoma State 16 3 Oklahoma State 12 1
Arkansas 14 Arkansas 7 7 Arkansas 8 6 Arkansas 8 6 Arkansas 8 6 Arkansas 5 9
South Carolina 15 South Carolina 19 4 South Carolina 18 3 South Carolina 16 1 South Carolina 17 2 South Carolina 18 3
Virginia Tech 16 Virginia Tech 15 1 Virginia Tech 12 4 Virginia Tech 11 5 Virginia Tech 12 4 Virginia Tech 20 4
Alabama 17 Alabama 16 1 Alabama 17 0 Alabama 19 2 Alabama 18 1 Alabama 13 4
LSU 18 LSU 10 8 LSU 11 7 LSU 12 6 LSU 11 7 LSU 8 10
Texas A&M 19 Texas A&M 18 1 Texas A&M 19 0 Texas A&M 18 1 Texas A&M 19 0 Texas A&M 16 3
Utah 20 Utah 20 0 Utah 21 1 Utah 21 1 Utah 21 1 Utah 19 1
Florida State 21 Florida State 21 0 Florida State 20 1 Florida State 20 1 Florida State 20 1 Florida State 22 1
Northern Illinois 22 Northern Illinois 25 3 Northern Illinois 24 2 Northern Illinois 23 1 Northern Illinois 24 2 Northern Illinois 25 3
Navy 23 Navy     Navy 30 7 Navy 31 8 Navy 29 6 Navy    
West Virginia 24 West Virginia 24 0 West Virginia 23 1 West Virginia 24 0 West Virginia 23 1 West Virginia 24 0
Hawaii 25 Hawaii     Hawaii 25 0 Hawaii 27 2 Hawaii 28 3 Hawaii    
UCF 28 UCF     UCF 31 3 UCF 25 3 UCF 27 1 UCF    
Arizona 30 Arizona 23 7 Arizona 26 4 Arizona 26 4 Arizona 25 5 Arizona 23 7
Mississippi State 33 Mississippi State 22 11 Mississippi State 22 11 Mississippi State 22 11 Mississippi State 22 11 Mississippi State 21 12
    Average   2.92     2.93     3.04     2.96     3.56
    Mode   1     3     1     1     1

What you have here is my ranking along with some of the more common rankings you will see. I didn't think all of the computer rankings would fit in this chart, so I just took the average of them. The numbers to the right of the poll are the ranking of those teams in the poll and then the difference between that ranking and my ranking. The BCS poll does not show beyond the top 25, so I can't compare those teams to mine. At the bottom, you will see the average difference and and the most common difference between the polls. The team that seemed to cause me the most troubles is Mississippi State. They alone account for a little less than half a rank in each of the averages.

So, I'm planning on doing another ranking next week after all the games have been played and another after all the bowls have been played. I'd also like to do conference rankings and go back to previous years and "resolve" controversies. By next week, I will have tweaked this a bit more to add in homefield advantage and hopefully perfected the formula.

I have one last ranking for you. This is the algorithm without the margin of victory used to weight the wins. This is essentially what would be submitted to the BCS because they don't allow points into the calculations. It's interesting that it places Auburn in first now just like the rest of the computers.

No Weights, With Record
Auburn
TCU
Oregon
Michigan State
Ohio State
Stanford
Wisconsin
Boise State
LSU
Nevada
Missouri
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Utah
Virginia Tech
Alabama
Texas A&M
South Carolina
Northern Illinois
Florida State
Navy
Jacksonville State
Tulsa
(47) Michigan

What if Tate has a great offseason?

What if Tate has a great offseason?

Submitted by NorthwesternFan on December 3rd, 2010 at 11:33 PM

I know Denard had an AMAZING season, I don't want anyone to interpret this post as anti-Denard, but honestly, Tate looked pretty good when he saw the field (Illinois game anyone?)  What happens if Tate has an amazing offseason? Could we have some QB competition in camp next year?