Key to winning our last 2 - score moar points chart

Key to winning our last 2 - score moar points chart

Submitted by readyourguard on November 13th, 2011 at 8:26 AM

In all 8 wins, we have outpaced our opponent's "points yielded per game" average.  Conversely, in our two losses, we failed to score more points than what State and Iowa give up on average.  Therefore, the easy conclusion is, we need to score more than 23 points against Nebraska and 19 vs OSU (using today's stat line).  Here's a simpleton's chart I put together between my  first and second cup of coffee this morning.

Rank Team PPG/avg W/L Score Diff
1 PSU 12.9 x - -
2 Michigan 15.5 x - -
3 Wisconsin 15.8 x - -
4 @ MSU 16.5 L 14-28 -2.5
5 @ Illinois 18.6 W 31-14 +12.4
6 OSU 18.9      
7 ND 20.9 W 35-31 +14.1
8 SDSU 22.1 W 28-7 +5.9
9 Nebraska 22.2      
10 @ Iowa 23.8 L 16-24 -7.8
11 EMU 24.6 W 31-3 +6.4
12 Purdue 26.1 W 36-14 +9.9
13 @Northwestern 28.3 W 42-24 +13.7
14 WMU 29.6 W 34-10 +4.4
15 Minnesota 34.6 W 58-0 +23.4
16 Indiana 36.0 x - -

Here's more flimsy data:  in home games (sans Minnesota cuz they suck and all) we have outpaced our oppenent's defensive average by an average of 8.14 points per game.  Therefore, I predict we're going to score 31 points against Nebraska and 27 against the Bucs.  Mark it down, Donnie.

I am not a statistician, I don't play one on TV, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.  I'm sure you're shocked at all 3 revelations. 

Have a good morning and Go Blue!

 

Props to Ryan Van Bergen

Props to Ryan Van Bergen

Submitted by Marley Nowell on November 13th, 2011 at 12:58 AM

RVG deserves a lot of praise for the contributions he has made to Michigan Football.  He stay committed through 2 coaching changes, started for 3 years playing everywhere on the D-Line, and worked his butt off.  I remember thinking early in his carreer he was a nice player but nothing special.  This year he has made numerous big plays and looks like he could be a NFL draft pick.  Ryan Van Bergen is a true Michigan Man.

GO BLUE!

Inside the Box Score - Game 10

Inside the Box Score - Game 10

Submitted by ST3 on November 13th, 2011 at 12:15 AM

    It feels great to win a rivalry game, even if it’s just our opponent who considers it a rivalry. By my count, Brady is now 4-1 in rivalry games. I’m including San Diego State, because you don’t just take another team’s coach without there being some hurt feelings. Brady is like the personification of the little brown jug, if only it wore short sleeves and was neither little, nor brown.*

Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/111211aaa.html

Burst of Impetus

  • Initial impetus went to Michigan after Touss’ 65 yard run that basically told Illinois, yeah, you have a good defense but we can run on you. We controlled the impetus for the rest of the half.
  • Illinois had two nice plays to start the second half, but our defense followed that with a Desmond Morgan de-cleater (everyone who saw/heard it knows what I’m talking about), a blitzing Kovacs TFL, and a monster sack from Van Bergen, who split a double-team and jumped on top of Scheelhaase’s back. Burst of Impetus regained.
  • It did appear that Illinois adjusted to our inside running game, and started to slow us down. When Denard went out injured, things got a little dicey. Then, JT Floyd picked off Scheelhaase and almost returned it for six. When Gardner threw for a TD shortly after that, the game was basically over. Illinois was beaten by our backup QB again.

Trash Cans Full of Dirt

  • JT FLOYD!
  • Mike Martin lead us with 9 tackles. That’s right, an interior defensive lineman lead us with NINE tackles. I’m going to miss that guy. He also got half a sack and 2 QHs. Roh also had 2 QHs. We were QH’ing Scheelhaase all game long.
  • Back to Floyd. He’s been a punching bag on this blog and I’ve thought that was a little unfair, but what do I know, I only watch the game once. I hope the “JT Floyd is not a good corner” meme can die a quick and sudden death after today. He had 4 tackles, an interception that put the game away, and 2 pass breakups. I also didn’t notice him whiffing on any tackles.
  • Desmond Morgan was second in tackles with 8, including the aforementioned de-cleater. Can I have 3 more years of that, please?
  • VAN BERGEN!!! He gets three of these “!,” one for each of his TFLs, that included 2.5 sacks for 27 yards. On one of his sacks he proved that Lewan is not the only one who likes to ride donkeys.
  • The first time Illinois was in our territory, there was 1:45 left in the third quarter.
  •  
  •  
  • Just wanted to let that sink in for a minute. 
  • The Team had 6 TFLs, 4 of which were sacks, 5 passes broken up, and the 4 QHs. Yes, Illinois’ offense is struggling, but our guys still needed to go out there and make plays and they did. I can’t see Martinez or Miller doing that much better throwing than Scheelhaase did. We’ll need to stop their run games, but it will be nice having those games at home. Not to jinx things, but 10-2 is still a distinct possibility, and that starts with defense.

Filthy

  • I apologize to Touss for that “china in a bull store” crack last week. Touss was in Bull-mode all afternoon. He had 27 carries for 192 yards. That works out to 7.1 yards per carry. He had a 65 yard run that set the tone for the first half.
  • Denard had two nice touchdown runs, but was otherwise held in check by the Illini.
  • I know “Molk” doesn’t show up in the boxscore, but 223 NET YARDS RUSHING against a good rush defense does, and a lot of that is attributable to one David Molk. What a game he had.

San Diego49ers

  • Odoms caught two for 46 yards. One was a 27 yard TD that put the game away. I’ve always liked Odoms, and I couldn’t be happier for him.
  • Koger caught two, one for 40 yards where he dragged the DB for the last 10.

Big John R. Studd Referee Section

  • The linesman was Tripp Sutter. Tripp, I assume you are a grown man. Why are we still going with, “Tripp?”
  • Michigan had 4 penalties for 29 yards, and Illinois was flagged for 4 penalties and 25 yards.
  • After last week, it was nice not having to complain about the refs, but man were there a bunch of replays.
  • I think the lesson we learned from the Iowa game is that you can get a little physical with the wideouts and sometimes get away with it.
  • I thought they missed a helmet-to-helmet hit that knocked out Denard, and a few other late hits on Illinois, but all-in-all, there’s nothing to complain about this week.

Hexadecimal Points

  • Normal jerseys from both sides. I will say that I find orange to be a complementary color, like white, grey, yellow, and maize. I don’t think you should wear a complementary color with white pants. It’s not a good look, but Illinois has to concede blue to us, forcing them into the orange unis, and making them look like an orange creamsicle.
  • 2H Matthew Cavanaugh had 2 tackles and 5G Frank Clark had one, and gave up the edge, again. Cavanaugh is making the most of his ST play. That guy always ends up making a couple tackles.
  • #24, Delonte Hollowell, didn’t show up in the boxscore, but he made a huge play on special teams. On one of our punts, the Illini returner muffed the catch. Before he had a chance to cover the ball, Hollowell nailed him. It was a nice, clean hit that allowed McColgan to recover the fumble.

Derpan Meyer

  • Announcers were Justin Kutcher and Craig James.
  • Referring to Illinois’ offensive line, Craig James said, and I quote, “They’re athletic and I watch them, and the eye candy of their offensive line is there.” Hey, Illini linemen, if Craig asks you for a post-game interview, you should probably politely decline. And Craig, when the third thing that shows up on Google when you search for Craig James is “Craig James killed 5 hookers,” you probably shouldn’t talk about linemen as eye candy.
  • When I found out Craig was announcing our game, I decided NOT to use the “Craig James killed 5 hookers” angle {allegedly, I know, I know,} but when you throw a fat one over the plate like that, you leave me no choice.
  • Craig James called Reilly O’Toole, “Freshman O’Toole.” That’s fitting.

Random, as Yet Unnamed, Bullets

  • I’m not sure which name is better, Reilly O’Toole, or Pat Nixon-Youman. On the one hand, you’ve got “Reilly O’Toole.” On the other, you’ve got a former First Lady with a great Chris Berman name, “Pat Nixon You-Da-man!” And let’s not forget Illinois DB Supo Sanni.
  • Illinois, after getting only one first down in the first half, actually had one more first down than we did, 15-14. But when you only accrue 37 yards rushing, you are usually not going to win the game. Illinois averaged 1.1 yards per carry. I’m giggling.
  • Total yards, UofM 362, Ill 214. Big Plays! We had ‘em, they didn’t. Their longest run was 13 yards. Mr. Kovacs, please stay healthy.
  • Net yards per punt, UofM 32.2, Ill 34.7. Net yards per kickoff, UofM 49.2, Ill 50. A push on special teams? I’ll take it every time.

* The point of this paragraph is to admit to Illinois that they are our rivals, in the same way that Minnesota and San Diego State are. In other words, not really.

The Mattison Miracle - Some Numbers

The Mattison Miracle - Some Numbers

Submitted by WolverineBlue on November 12th, 2011 at 11:48 PM

There was considerable speculation during the offseason as to what level of improvement was possible for the 2011 defense under Mattison. Jumping 40 or 50 spots in the rankings was considered the maximum plausible expectation based on exhaustive statistical analyses.

I couldn't wait to see where things stood following today's effort, so I went into spreadsheet mode and came up with the following:

 

  2011 Ave 2011 Rank 2010 Ave 2010 Rank
Scoring Defense 16.1 7 35.2 108
Rushing Defense 130.9 41 188.9 95
Passing Defense 191.3 22 261.9 112
Total Defense 322.2 17 450.8 110

 

The numbers should be accurate although there are a couple of late games that could nudge the yardage rankings a smidge. These numbers would be even better if the NCAA had counted the WMU game.

I know, I know, there are still two (+) tough games remaining, and I don't want to jinx anything, but how many thought these results were possible through 10 (9 that count) games. Color me delighted with Marvelous Mattison.

Game Thoughts

Game Thoughts

Submitted by michgoblue on November 12th, 2011 at 11:12 PM

So, my usual post-game musings:

1.  The defense is really solid.  At first, I thought we were just doing well against crappy teams, but would struggle against decent competition, but I was wrong.  This defense is legitimately good. 

2.  Hoke and Mattison are doing an awesome job with the D.  Not because we are good - that was covered in point 1 - because we are improving in weak areas from week to week, and that is on the coaching. 

As an aside, there is a ton of Mattison love here for the D, but I place the credit somewhat on Hoke, as well.  When our offense did well last year, it was RR's offense because even though he was the HC, he spent a ton of time with the offense.  Similarly, Hoke, while HC, spends a ton of time with the D, in particular the Dline, which has excelled.  He deserves a ton of credit.

3.  Denard.  Call me crazy, but for the first quarter, he looked like a legin throwing QB - small sample size, but his throws were crisp and on target.

4.  Denard. His running is really lacking.  He seems to lack vision for open lanes, and has not done a good job of getting into the open field.  He is running tentative.  HE did have 1 decent run, but even on that one, he lacked some of his top end burst.  I said this last week and I will say it again - to me, Denard looks a step slower than last year.  Perhaps an injury? 

5.  DEvin - he came in and got a TD, so not looking to complain, but he is still far from being able to run this offense.  Also, his throws lack zip - they seem to float and wobble too much.  THat said, nice read on the TD throw to find the open man.

6.  JT Floyd - he has turned into, dare I say, a shut down corner.  I love his aggressiveness. 

7.  Countess- man, is he going to be special.  Reminds me so much of D. Warren.

8.  Fitz - he is really living up to the hype that he had been getting on this blog for he past 2 years.  Great mix of power and speed. 

9.  Nebraska - this game is going to be so close.  IF we protect the ball better, we win.

10.  OSU - I will not jinx, I will not jinx, I will not jinx.  Purdue?

 

Comparing Margins of Victories

Comparing Margins of Victories

Submitted by wildbackdunesman on November 12th, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Using Margin of Victory and comparing where we rank against our opponents' opponent's performance.

 

WMU: we had the 2nd best performance against, probably would be #1 if it weren't for the rain ending the game in the 3rd.

Notre Dame: 2nd best performance against.

EMU: Tied for the 2nd best performance against.

SDSU: 2nd best performance against.

Minnesota: #1 best performance against.

Northwestern: #1 best performance against.

MSU: 6th best performance against.

Purdue: 3rd best performance against, would have beat out Notre Dame for #2 if Purdue didn't score the last play TD.

Iowa: 6th best performance against.

Illinois: #1 best performance against.

 

Granted we will fall in some of these as there are more games are left, but it is a good improvement off of last year.  Ultimately it is a meaningless stat as it is wins and losses that count.

 

Rich Rod Calling the UCF-Southern Miss. game right now

Rich Rod Calling the UCF-Southern Miss. game right now

Submitted by Maximinus Thrax on November 12th, 2011 at 9:30 PM

On CBS Sports Network (Channel 613 on Direct TV). He is giving a pretty animated performance.  Actually quite enjoyable listening to him.  BTW, when did Southern Mississippi creep into the # 22 spot in the BCS rankings?