M in the bowl projections

M in the bowl projections

Submitted by DISCUSS Man on November 17th, 2013 at 4:14 PM

ESPN has Michigan going to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl in one projection facing Texas. The other one has the Texas Bowl to play Oregon State.

Jerry Palm from CBS Sports has Michigan in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl to face Texas Tech.

ESPN thinks for some reason that the Gator Bowl will take Minnesota. Highly doubt Michigan falls below the Gator Bowl since the Gator took ohio in 2011.

Although I rather not play an SEC team and go back to that shitty city. Wonder if any of the coeds of ASU will be around for the BWW Bowl?

Sunday Snowflake/Haiku Before ISU Game Thread:

Sunday Snowflake/Haiku Before ISU Game Thread:

Submitted by MaizeMN on November 17th, 2013 at 2:27 PM

Watching the Lions vs. Steelers (worst throwback unis ever) game and waiting for the MBB game. So, why not?                                                                                                                     My offering: Fire Borges still reigns. Dileo safe at second. A win we will take.

Inside the Boxscore - Team 134, Game 10

Inside the Boxscore - Team 134, Game 10

Submitted by ST3 on November 17th, 2013 at 2:00 PM

     The knowledgeable MGoReader is aware of the Heininger Certainty Principle that states that by the end of the season, Mattison and Hoke will transform a walk-on/2* level talent into a competent B1G-level starting defensive tackle. On the offensive side of the ball, another principle is in effect: the Heisenborges Uncertainty Principle. This theory states that by the simple act of observing the offense, the impetus of the offense changes, preventing one from determining whether the suckitude of the offense is due to Heisenborges playcalling, or the inexperience of the offensive line. We have recently learned that Brady Hoke thinks there is nothing wrong with the playcalling. I can only assume that he is not observing the offense. What is he doing instead? Methinks he is thinking about brunette girls. Hey, it works for Gibbons.

     The Heisenborges Uncertainty Principle pits the Newtonian Mechanics school of thought (MOAR MANBALL!) against Quantum Mechanics (QUANTA SCREENS!) and the wave-particle duality of spread and shread concepts. Applied to Heisenborges, the traditionalists see a wave of defenders crashing through the inexperienced line, gathering TFLs by the bushels. The new school sees individual quanta of defenders beating blocks, one block at a time. The probability distribution function of each and every block working is directly related to the number of blocks that must be executed properly.

     In the quantum well that is our rushing attack, our electron has been trapped by the impenetrable barrier of the line of scrimmage. However, quantum mechanics provides for quantum-mechanical tunneling through barriers. If the energy of the running back is great enough for the probability of the running back to exist on the other side of the line of scrimmage, the running back can effectively tunnel through the line of scrimmage and end up on the other side of the defense. How does one increase the energy of the running back? Kinetic energy is 1/2 the mass times velocity squared. One glance at Derrick Green will confirm that he has more mass than Fitzgerald Toussaint, about two 20 lb cheeseburgers worth of extra mass. OK, enough football physics, on to the link.

Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/111613aaa.html

Burst of Impetus

* Heisenborges' playcalling on the opening drive was brilliant, for the first 8 plays. He hit NU with two first down passes to start the drive. This loosened up the NU defense, allowing the running game to get going (pass to set up the run, what a novel concept.) Six straight successful running plays occurred. Had we time-traveled back to the CMU game? This set up first and goal at the Northwestern 7. Northwestern responded to this by putting 9 in the box, leaving Funchess and Gallon singled up on the outside. A modern offense* would provide for a check to take advantage of NU's response. Instead, we ran into the strength of the defense, lost two yards and the impetus. Instead of scoring a TD and crushing NU's spirit (remember, they had spent the last two weeks dealing with a Hail Mary loss) we gave them hope that they could stop us or that we would revert to form and stop ourselves. In regulation, we were 0 for 13 on third down conversions and NU had no turnovers. The choices for Burst of Impetus were pretty slim, unless you think a 7 yard punt qualifies. Considering we gained -1 yard on the drive after that punt, I don't think much impetus was gained. So I'm going for a 2 yard loss early in the game that gave NU the impetus for the next 55 minutes or so.

*Regarding the modern offense comment, you'll read that other co-ordinators are playing chess while Heisenborges is playing checkers. I don't think that's entirely accurate, because at least with checkers you see where your opponent's pieces are and move accordingly. With Heisenborges, I think he's playing Battleship. He's blind to where his opponent's ships are and he's just lobbing bombs, hoping one connects.

Bent a little, didn't break

* Northwestern's first drive went 49 yards on 16 plays. That's almost exactly 3 yards per play. Once Michigan figured out that 3 times 3 equals 9, and not 10, we held NU in check. The defense recorded four three and outs, and NU had three more drives of only 4 plays. That accounts for half of NU's drives.

* 23 Wolverines recorded at least one tackle, led by JR3 with 13 tackles and one sack. Jibreel Black also had 5 tackles and one huge sack.

* Cam Gordon and Thomas Gordon each had drive-killing TFLs.

* Other than that, the defensive stats are stat-free. There were no forced fumbles, no blocked passes, no QHs, and the only interception and pass break up occurred on the last two plays of the game. Meanwhile, NU's defense had 10 TFLs, 10 pass breakups, five sacks and one QH.

* Willie Henry is this year's Heininger Certainty Principle winner. He had 5 tackles on the day.

young 98

* Gardner completed 24 of 43 passes for 226 yards and 1 TD. The boxscore shows the weather as "Cloudy" with 15 mph winds. It sure looked worse than that to me, which should be remembered when we consider Gardner's day. I will make one prediction. When Brian does the UFR, he'll find that Gardner had a respectable 65% DSR... to Northwestern defenders! They just had too many drops.

* While Gardner was only 24 of 43 compared to NU's two-headed monster performance of 23-34, both teams averaged 5.3 yards per attempt. This leads to an interesting philosophical discussion. Is it better to throw many short, completed passes, or hit on the occasional longer pass? Since neither team scored a TD in regulation and looked awful on offense, I'm going with, "it just doesn't matter."

20 Pound Cheeseburgers

* A week after NOT getting a single rushing first down, we had 10 against NU. This is primarily attributable to the running of Derrick Green and an adjustment Heisenborges made (the whole, pass to set up the run concept, i.e., DRAW PLAYS!) Green ran 19 times for 79 yards. It's been so long since we've seen positive rushing yards, I was expecting Green to be over 200 yards in the boxscore. If that's what positive 79 yards looks like, I'll take it.

* De'Veon Smith chipped in an additional 41 yards on 8 carries.

* While Kerridge and Hayes did not get carries, they did provide some level of pass protection. Hayes biffed on one block, leading to a sack, but the improvement - while incremental - was there.

* It's worth remembering that we are dealing with real human beings, not video game characters. Considering all that Fitz has gone through for this program, having to tell him that he was being replaced in the lineup must have been a brutal thing for Hoke or Borges to do. But at the end of the day, the TEAM is more important than any one individual, and it is clear that Green is more productive than Fitz.

V. Sinha Legends Jersey

* Seven wolverines caught passes, including two out of the backfield. Gallon led the way with 10 catches for 115 yards. He had a couple drops, one potentially game-ending. He did make a block on the two point conversion that would make Martavious Odoms proud.

Waffles

* I saw some push from our O-line for the first time in weeks. I also saw true Frosh Bosch miss a block (understandable) and 5th year senior Schofield miss a few blocks (not as understandable.) Snaps were improved, at least nothing was airmailed this week.

Special Teams

* We were 3 yards better on average kickoff yards, and 7 yards better on net punt yards. Based on those two metrics, we had the better special teams.

* On the last play of regulation, Michigan ran the offense off the field, got the FG unit on, and made a game-tying kick with all within about 11 seconds. At that moment, I had a revelation. Michigan actually does practice game-ending situations. Based on their lethargic two minute drills I had wondered if this was the case. Epic double finger point to the Special Teams coach?

* Gibbons FGs were 25, 28, 44, and 29 yards. I fully understand Hoke going for it on 4th and 2 from NU's 5 late in the game. It's not just the fact that kicking a bunch of short FGs has to be incredibly frustrating. OT is a 50/50 proposition. We averaged 4.2 yards per play. Getting a first down there and a possible TD wins the game. Obviously, we missed, but we still had time to stop them and get the tying FG.

Heisenborges Uncertainties

* How does a team record 27 first downs while going 3 for 17 on third down conversions? I do prefer 27 first downs for 27 points to that other 27 for 27.

* How do the FBS leaders in interceptions get their hands on 10 passes, but get zero interceptions?

* How does an official who is looking right at a punted ball crossing into the endzone get overruled by another official half a field away? There was another play where it sure looked to me like the officials had given NU a first down, only to have the replay official confirm the original call that they didn't. Wait, WUT? Let's just say, if I was an NU fan, I'd be pissed at the officials. Poor damn Northwestern.

* How do two teams score a combined 18 points with 60 minutes of possession in regulation and score 28 points in 0 minutes of overtime possession? (OT TOP is recorded as 0:00)

* And finally, this game did provide the answer to a philosophical question that has plagued mankind for ages.

Q: If you place a piece of toast, buttered side up, on the back of Tacocat, and throw it in the air, how will it land?

A: By being dropped by a Northwestern defender.

Latest AP and USA Today Poll

Latest AP and USA Today Poll

Submitted by UMxWolverines on November 17th, 2013 at 1:35 PM

Baylor jumps Ohio in the AP and stays 4th behind them in USA Today.

AP Top 25

1 Alabama (55) 10-0 1495
2 Florida State (5) 10-0 1445
3 Baylor 9-0 1351
4 Ohio State 10-0 1343
5 Oregon 9-1 1210
6 Auburn 10-1 1205
7 Clemson 9-1 1115
8 Missouri 9-1 1067
9 Texas A&M 8-2 956
10 Stanford 8-2 899
11 Oklahoma State 9-1 889
12 South Carolina 8-2 870
13 Michigan State 9-1 749
14 UCLA 8-2 710
15 Fresno State 9-0 572
16 Wisconsin 8-2 559
17 UCF 8-1 535
18 LSU 7-3 439
19 Arizona State 8-2 430
20 Northern Illinois 10-0 426
21 Louisville 9-1 412
22 Oklahoma 8-2 318
23 USC 8-3 187
24 Ole Miss 7-3 119
25 Duke 8-2 94

USA Today

1 Alabama (56) 10-0 1544
2 Florida State (6) 10-0 1487
3 Ohio State 10-0 1404
4 Baylor 9-0 1386
5 Oregon 9-1 1231
6 Clemson 9-1 1217
7 Auburn 10-1 1145
8 Missouri 9-1 1129
9 Oklahoma State 9-1 1030
10 Texas A&M 8-2 928
11 South Carolina 8-2 882
12 Stanford 8-2 865
13 Michigan State 9-1 729
14 UCLA 8-2 700
15 Louisville 9-1 627
16 Fresno State 9-0 622
17 Wisconsin 8-2 511
18 Oklahoma 8-2 502
19 LSU 7-3 478
20 UCF 8-1 446
21 Northern Illinois 10-0 418
22 Arizona State 8-2 352
23 Minnesota 8-2 173
24 Duke 8-2 131
25 USC 8-3 115

Desmond: Borges third highest paid coordinator (assume refer to OC)

Desmond: Borges third highest paid coordinator (assume refer to OC)

Submitted by iawolve on November 17th, 2013 at 10:21 AM
Reading this in the Detroit News this morning and was a bit surprised. Is Borges really the third highest paid OC in the country? If we are willing to compensate at that level, regardless of who has the position, that dude better have a playbook for any situation or set of talent. This has me a bit conflicted when I see us paying the money since we obviously felt Borges had the potential to be a top three coordinator. I then wonder if we know what you need in a top tier OC because I then have less confidence in hiring any replacement. Not sure your views on the subject beyond there is a likely consensus that we are not getting our money's worth for whatever reason. “We understand the glaring issues you have, but when you’re the third-highest paid coordinator in the country, you’re paid to figure it out, and you’re paid to figure it out against teams like the Northwesterns, even against a Nebraska, who they lost to last week,” Howard said Saturday morning on GameDay. http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131116/SPORTS0201/311160051

Edited Title: Player development over next three games

Edited Title: Player development over next three games

Submitted by taistreetsmyhero on November 17th, 2013 at 10:07 AM

EDIT:  I agree that the question I posed in the original title (what's the best outcome for the season) is dumb and loser mentality. But I still think I posed one question that isn't quite as flamebaity and worthy of discussion:

Can the players show enough development/progress/etc. over the next three games for you to believe in Funk and Borges moving forward?

What exactly would it take for you to believe in them?

 

 

The State Of Our Open Threads: After Northwestern

The State Of Our Open Threads: After Northwestern

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on November 17th, 2013 at 9:07 AM

Well, it might not have looked pretty, but we did win, folks.

We were very productive from a swearing standpoint, even accounting for several attempts to inflate the numbers a little bit. Fortunately, the overwhelming majority of those attempts involved the word "fuck", so it was relatively easy to come up with the adjusted totals. That being said, a special shoutout should go to MGoBlogger Gameboy who had a post which contained almost 140 instances of the word "fuck", and although this was removed from the grand total, I have no doubt that many of us were thinking that very post during the first half of the game.

How productive were we specifically? Along the tracked metrics, we managed 624 instances across almost 2,200 posts in two threads, which is a 33.97% increase in overall swearing from last week. This also represents a slight increase in the relative frequency of swearing - an instance every 3.50 posts this week, compared to one instance every 3.76 posts last week, or about a 7% increase in frequency. I consider that a significant increase. 

Here is the overall cumulative picture as of this morning:

  TOTAL AVERAGE STD. DEV. % OF TOTAL
"fuck" 1688 168.80 154.78 47.83%
"shit" 417 41.70 20.83 11.82%
"damn" 361 36.10 44.52 10.23%
"fire" 289 28.90 32.79 8.19%
"suck" 423 42.30 31.87 11.99%
"ass" 227 22.70 24.43 6.43%
"put in Morris" 124 12.40 13.63 3.51%

Not much has changed from last week - we still clearly prefer "fuck". Indeed, when we try to inflate the numbers and confound the metrics, we stick with "fuck", so I post this also to show you where there is clearly some room to make more impact in the relative frequency of tracked words. Once again, "shit" and "suck" are a distant second and third, but the most significant jump actually belongs to references to firing people, most notably Al Borges. The frequency of these references jumped from 6.23% to 8.19%, so clearly the discontent with coaching and coaching decisions is beginning to rise significantly even from what it was. 

Here is the game-by-game bar chart - you can click on the picture to go to Photobucket and see it at full size:

 photo SOOTNorthwesternBar_zps209de0e6.png

The normalized values show the relative trend in calling for heads, but again, for overall rage, we still have Penn State:

 photo SOOTNorthwesternNormal_zpsdbefb48c.png

It should be noted here that I did adjust for some attempts to inflate the "fire" references too, but even after that, the Z-score for this metric was 2.41, which is VERY impressive and speaks to the lack of satisfaction with recent games / decisions. Even the "shit" metric, which typical was steady and in the background, jumped to a Z-score of 1.21, much of it used in a simile describing the overall quality of play.

Here is the "Fuck-Fire Relationship", which shows "fuck" starting to lag a little bit when compared to the overall trend of wanting people fired:

 photo SOOTNorthwesternFF_zpsc227d09c.png

Here is the Mood Chart, which made an appearance on Twitter after the Nebraska game. The shift in normalized values that the Northwestern game caused may result in the quadrants being renamed, but it made sense when I created it. If you have suggestions, do post them.

What you can see, however, is that we have more confirmation that PSU is still the watershed moment of the season for both comments and cussing, but we were just as verbal if not as profane for yesterday's game. 

 photo SOOTMoodChartNW_zps9453f929.png