Tate Forcier is BACK in football

Tate Forcier is BACK in football

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on May 25th, 2014 at 5:32 PM

A friend sent me something and said Tate is playing football again. Apparently, he is playing for the Los Angeles Marauders of the PS-AFL. 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=735265743178791

(LOS ANGELES) -- The Los Angeles Marauders have activated former University of Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier for Sunday's Professional Spring American Football League game against the SoCal Coyotes in Palm Springs. 

The Marauders lost starting quarterback Kyle Parrish due to injuries from last week's 34-6 opening day. Forcier joins Kadell Washington (San Jose State) as the two active quarterbacks on the Marauder roster. 

Forcier completed 165 of 281 (58.7) for 2,050 yards, 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions during his tenure at Michigan. He rushed 118 times for 240 yards. 

Forcier appeared briefly with the CFL's Hamilton Tiger-Cats. 

Parrish finished last week's game, but was sacked six times by a devastating Coyote defense that gave up only 169 total yards. 

-GM Sam Maggio

 

Looks like Tate Forcier is playing football again. This time with the LA Marauders of the PS-AFL, a semi-pro spring football league.

— Joshua Henschke (@JoshuaHenschke) May 23, 2014

Correcting O/U win totals for moneylines

Correcting O/U win totals for moneylines

Submitted by m1jjb00 on May 25th, 2014 at 4:37 PM

The fact that over/under win totals come with moneylines provide no real complication for the betting public.   Convert the moneylines to a return, ask whether the probability is better than the return and bet accordingly.  But, what of rest of the public who want to read the over/under’s as Vegas’s expected wins?  How can you convert the combination of the moneylines and O/U’s to an expected win value?  To be concrete Michigan is at 7.5 (-140 over/+100 under) according to the odds just released.  Penn State is at 8.5 but (+100/-140).  How far apart are they?  My results suggest Michigan’s expected number of wins is just a little higher at 7.6, while Penn State’s is a ½ win lower than its O/U at 8.0.  In 2013, there were a few teams whose moneylines were so extreme that they implied expected wins a full win less than the O/U.

Let p denote the probability of winning more games than the O/U.  Then the implied expected number of wins is p E[wins|wins>O/U] + (1-p) E[wins|wins<O/U] where the expected values can be read as the average number of wins when a team comes above or below the over/under.  The probability p is calculated from the moneylines and Table 1 contains estimates of these averages, which depend on the level of the over/under.

The way to interpret the moneylines depends on whether they’re positive or negative.  If positive, the line gives you the extra amount you win if you bet $100.  If negative, it gives you the amount you have to bet to win an extra $100.  Let p(o) and p(u) denote the probabilities read directly from the moneylines, and denote by m as the absolute value of the number in the moneyline.  If the moneyline is positive, then the probability is 100/(m+100); if negative it’s m/(100+m).  In Michigan’s case, p(o) = 140/(100+140) = 0.583 and p(u) = 100/(100+100) = 0.500.  If you think the probability that Michigan wins more than 7-1/2 games is greater than 58.3%, bet the over; if you think the probability is less than 50%, bet the under. 

Note, however that p(o)+p(u) is greater than one.  That’s Vegas’s juice to make money.  We want a fair probability for our purposes, so we convert them by setting p = p(o)/(p(o)+p(u)).  In Michigan’s case, p = 0.583/(0.583+0.500) = 0.538.

Table 1 contains the applicable expected values for various over/under's calculated under two different methodologies.  The first method takes actual over/under’s from 2010-2013.  The second method takes Chris Stassen’s data on preseason magazine ratings and converts them as a decent ex-ante estimate of an O/U.  Then for each I calculate the average wins when the teams come in above and when they come in below the totals.  For my calculations below I then take an average of the two estimates.  In Michigan’s case, the applicable expected values are  E[wins|wins>O/U] = 9.20, which is the midpoint of the range and E[wins|wins<O/U] = 5.75, likewise.  Weighting by 0.538 gives 7.6 wins.

Table 1

Conditional Win Averages

O/U

E[wins|wins>O/U]

E[wins|wins<O/U]

3.5

 5.20 --   4.80

2.00 -- 2.17

4.5

 6.69 --   7.11

2.86 -- 2.67

5.5

 7.18 --   8.00

3.26 -- 3.52

6.5

 8.16 --   8.00

4.87 -- 4.40

7.5

 9.33 --   9.06

5.86 -- 5.64

8.5

 9.86 – 10.24

6.41 -- 6.05

9.5

10.73 -- 10.45

7.53 -- 7.11

10.5

11.00 -- 11.33

9.50 -- 9.50

11.5

12.00 -- 12.00

n.a. -- 11.00

To be sure my estimated expected wins in table 1 could be improved upon, and the method as a whole could be augmented by arguing that the expected values should vary with the moneyline.

Table 2 gives expected wins for all Big Ten teams and Notre Dame for those over/under’s provided by Kegs ‘N Eggs.  Note that Notre Dame’s expected wins is 0.7 below the O/U.

Table 2

Big Ten Expected Wins

 

O/U

Moneyline

E[wins]

Indiana

 5.5

+145 over / -185 under

 5.0

Maryland

 7.5

+100 over / -140 under

 7.3

Michigan

 7.5

-140 over / +100 under

 7.6

MichiganState

 9.5

-155 over / +115 under

 9.2

Nebraska

 7.5

-130 over / -110 under

 7.5

Notre Dame

 9.5

+110 over / -150 under

 8.8

OhioState

10.5

-140 over / +100 under

10.4

PennState

 8.5

+100 over / -140 under

 8.0

Rutgers

 4.5

-110 over / -130 under

 4.8

Wisconsin

 9.5

-135 over / -105 under

 9.1

 

.

 

 

ESPN filler: Biggest question mark, Florida or Michigan?

ESPN filler: Biggest question mark, Florida or Michigan?

Submitted by Bodogblog on May 23rd, 2014 at 1:28 PM

We're 100 days out so this is filler, but it's brief.  And what the hell else are we going to talk about?  I'm posting primarily due to the comment made by Cunningham (who I remember being a pretty terrible announcer last year) re. the offense in 2013.

There seemed to be a disconnect on the offensive staff... what you watched on film was not what they thought was going on. So I thought that was a good change by Brady Hoke (Nuss hire).

With apologies to all for bringing the topic up again, this offhand statement seems a powerful indictment of the offensive staff.  An announcer's opinion is worth whatever value you give it, but they do meet with the coordinators during game weeks to prep for the broadcast.  Maybe it's hindsight, but it gives me the impression that they walked out of the film room thinking "these guys don't even know what they're seeing."  If anywhere near true, the responsibility ultimately lies with Hoke, let's hope a reboot was all that was needed.

The bigger purpose of posting this is not to complain about 2013, but to induce hope for 2014.  I think there has to be an expectation of improved offensive strategy, which should offset at least some of the offensive line concerns.  If the defense takes another step and the lightbulb goes on for one or more of Kalis, Bosch, Magnuson, Dawson, Braden, Cole or other, this team should have every intention of competing for the B1G.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10963514

 

Rank the Michigan teams from best to worst in the BCS era

Rank the Michigan teams from best to worst in the BCS era

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on May 23rd, 2014 at 12:54 PM

Now that the BCS era is over and it being the midst of the off-season for college football, lets rank the Michigan teams from best to worst, 1 to 16.  As a reminder,  the BCS era was 1998 to 2013.  All just opinion and for fun of course.

 

I'll start:

1.  2006

2.  1999 (Not sure how they lost to Illi at home)

3.   2003 

4.  2000 (perhaps our best and most talented offense during this era)

5. 2004 

6.   1998

7.  2011

8.  2007 

9.   2002

10.  2001 

11.  2012

12.  2005 (Probably Carr's worse team.  Defense was out of shape, and I didn't mind Herman being canned after this season)

13.  2013

14.  2010  (more fun to watch than 2013 but defense was sooooo bad)

15. 2009

16.  2008 (duh)

OT - Johnny Manziel sued for sexual assault (may be a joke)

OT - Johnny Manziel sued for sexual assault (may be a joke)

Submitted by UMClassOf2018 on May 23rd, 2014 at 9:43 AM

According to many sources on twitter, new Browns QB Johnny Manziel has been sued by someone named Samantha Schacher for sexual assualt. She is seeking $25 million and a restraining order. 

This seems pretty serious... until you read what was written in the report. Either Johnny is the biggest idiot ever, or this girl could write a Hollywood comedy.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/225775703/Samantha-Schacher-v-Johnny-Manziel

EDIT - Apparently, the suit itself is real, but whether or not it was filed as a joke, or if any of thise is true, remains to be seen.

A2-Saline Road Construction Delays to Affect Traffic for 1 or 2 U-M Football Games

A2-Saline Road Construction Delays to Affect Traffic for 1 or 2 U-M Football Games

Submitted by I Bleed Maize N Blue on May 22nd, 2014 at 4:31 PM

Due to the harsh winter and Michigan frost laws, which prevented heavy equipment from being moved until later in April, the start of construction on Ann Arbor-Saline Road was delayed for 23 days, so construction will go into September. There's one bad weather day per week built into the schedule, but any more than that will mean further delay.

This will affect football traffic for App St and possibly for 9/13 Miami (NTM).

(MLive article)