This week's betting lines and picks

This week's betting lines and picks

Submitted by Gulo_Gulo on September 18th, 2014 at 2:16 AM

Week 4

It was a good week for the Wolverines, winning by 24 points 34-10.  While some questions remain for the offense, the defense seems to have assumed an identity.  Week 4 rankings include 4 Big Ten teams with Nebraska ranked the lowest (24th) and the only ranked Big Ten team to remain undefeated.  MSU(11) keeps the highest spot coming off a bye week.

 

Last week recap:

Winners: Iowa State(+12.5) @ Iowa 20-17

                Nebraska(-10) @ Fresno State 55 -19

                Kent @ Ohio State(-32) 0-66

                UL Lafayette @ Mississippi(-27) 15-56

Losers: Houston @ BYU(-18.5) 25-33

                Penn State @ Rutgers(+3.5)(for the WIN) 13-10

                Georgia(-5.5) @ South Carolina 35-38

BYU is a good team but is too undisciplined to go very far this year.  One of their starting def. lineman was thrown out because he tried to punch a guy.  I’m just saying.  Rutgers looked like they should have gotten the win last week but they seem to be afraid of success.  Welcome to the BIG TEN!

SoFlaWolverine adds Washington to his win column.

Maize_in_spartyland adds TCU and Wakeforest to his win column.

                 

For those of you who can’t wait till Saturday, here is Thursday’s most interesting matchup:

Auburn(-8.5) @ K-State:

                O/U: 64.5

Power Rankings: AUB 4  K-State 17

           Auburn(5) moved up 3 spots in the power rankings, is 2-0 and 0-2 ATS.  This will be their first challenge away from home and their first match up against a ranked opponent.  K-State is 2-0 and 2-0 ATS.  Both teams are 2-0-0 O/U.  Last year Auburn beat K-State(20) 23-13 even though K-State outgained them 316 TOT – 291 TOT.  Coates is out for Auburn this week and this could have an impact on the game as he accumulated 902 yards in receiving with 42 catches last year.  Auburn is ranked 31st in def. this year but only 48th in rushing def.  This is coming off opponents ranked 110th and 3rd in rushing, so it might not be that concerning but K-State is ranked 32nd in rushing off. K-State def. is ranked 23rd and had a good showing against Iowa State.  I see Auburn winning this game by a field goal and a mutual offensive struggle.

 

K-State to Cover and the Under

 

A look around the Big Ten

IND @ Missouri(-13):

                O/U: 73.5

                Power Rankings: IND 80  MIZZ 18

                Indiana just lost to BGSU and struggled to beat their instate rivals, need I say more?  I will anyways.  Mizz comes off a strong win against UCF 38-10 and shouldn’t have any problems against Indiana.  I’m guessing Vegas is concerned about the air raid that is Indiana’s only offense.  I’m not, since UCF possibly has the best receiving core in the FBS.  Get in on this line early to keep a 2 touchdown win.

 

Missouri to Cover

 

Utah @ Michigan(-5)

                O/U: 56

                Power Rankings: MI 35  Utah 61

                Michigan’s defense seems to be passing the eye test, and the numbers agree as they are ranked 7th overall and 10th and 23rd in rushing and passing.  Last week UM was able to finish some drives but Utah is ranked 39th in rushing def. so far.  The O/U seems low to me but I’m still not willing to bet UM puts up their share of points.  Utah is ranked 14th in Off. This could be a very frustrating game to watch, or boring if you’re the type of fan than needs Michigan to put up 50 points a game.  As a fan, Utah scares the hell out of me.  As a real Michigan fan… I see Michigan winning this game by at least a touchdown.  Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten. 
Over is 4-0 in Utes last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. 
Over is 6-1 in Utes last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 

Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September. 
Wolverines are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12. 
Under is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 games in September. 

 Disclaimer: I don’t bet on Michigan sports.  I refuse to bet against them for one, and I am way too biased.  Since I follow them so religiously, I can always find an insider reason to hype them up.  So, take it for what it’s worth.

               

Michigan to Cover

 

Iowa @ Pitt(-6.5)

                O/U: 46

                Power Rankings:  Iowa 32  Pitt 51

               

SJSU @ Minnesota(-8.5)

                O/U: 55.5

                Power Rankings:  MINN 40  SJSU 116

                I’m hoping the TCU game has mired anyone willing to bet on Minnesota.  This line seems a little low as a result and SJSU got embarrassed by AUB.  I’ll take a flyer on this one.

Minnesota to Cover

 

Southern Illinois @ Purdue

               O/U:

                Power Rankings: PUR 76 

                No one seems interested in this game so….. No action.

 

Massachusetts @ Penn State(-26.5)

                O/U: 47

                Power Rankings: PSU 33  UMASS 113

 

Miami @ Nebraska(-7)

                O/U: 58.5

                Power Rankings: NEB 20  Miami 41

                Miami has the 8th best def. but is only ranked 89th in off. so far.  If Nebraska can get their offense rolling this could be a very good game.  Nebraska is ranked 8th in def. and shouldn’t have any problem holding Miami to 3 touchdowns.  Nebraska is ranked 43rd in redzone def. this year.  That should be enough to keep Miami kicking field goals, which they seem more than willing to do this year with Goudis having 50+ yard range.  I’m staying away from this line but I’ll pick up some O/U action.

 

I’ll take the under

 

Maryland(-1) @ Syracuse

               O/U: 57.5

                Power Rankings:  MD 73   SYR64

 

Eastern Michigan @ MSU(-45.5)

                O/U: 54.5

                Power Rankings: EMU 122  MSU 12

 

Texas State @ Illinois(-14)

                O/U: 73.5

                Power Rankings:  ILL 60   TXST 86

 

Rutgers @ Navy(-6)

                O/U: 54

Power Rankings: RUTG 65  Navy 57

 

BGSU @ Wisconsin(-27)

                O/U: 65

                Power Rankings: WIS 23  BGSU 116

                Bowling Green is 2-1 and 2-1 ATS.  Wisconsin is 1-1 and 0-2 ATS.  WIS is ranked 9th in def. but an atrocious 88th in off.  They are however 39th in rushing.  BGSU is ranked 23rd in off. and 125th in def.  There is a huge mismatch on both sides of the ball.  In a game of rock, paper, scissors, Wisconsin def. beats BGSU off.  Wisconsin has never lost to BGSU and is 3-0 in the series.  Last week’s BGSU Indiana game really has this line screwed up.  It opened at -21.5 and I don’t see it stopping till after -29.  Wisconsin’s star running back only rushed for 38 yards on 17 carries against Western Illinois 2 weeks ago (they had a bye last week).  He had a good showing against LSU the week before though. WIS also returns their 2 best interior def. lineman. They were injured against LSU and I really think WIS would have won that game if they hadn’t been.  I wouldn’t wince at this line if Wisconsin was 2-0 and BGSU didn’t complete a game winning drive late against a pathetic Indiana team.  BGSU has a very fast paced off. completing 133 plays against Indiana.  Wisconsin has held opponents to an average of 59.5 plays so far.  Wisconsin is poised for a lopsided victory this week but I’m not sure how lopsided.  I would wait till the line moves above -28.5 and take BGSU if I wanted this action.  Instead, I’ll just take the under as it’s 4-0 for the Falcons.

 

I’ll take the Under

 

Western Illinois @ Northwestern

                O/U:

                Power Rankings:  No action on this one… Yawn

 

This week’s top ranked matchup: happens to be on Thursday, so… I bring you… wait for it…

 

Clemson(24)@ Florida State(1)(-17)

                O/U: 60.5

                Power Rankings: FSU 3 (Damn)   Clemson 24

               For perspective, Clemson falls directly between Nebraska and Ohio State in the power rankings.  Clem is 1-1 and 1-1 ATS while FSU is 2-0 and 0-2 ATS.  Clemson’s only loss is to Georgia 21-45.  Clem is ranked 27th in off. and 6th in def.  FSU is ranked 42nd and 43rd in off. and def. respectively. They are also coming off a close win against Oklahoma State 2 weeks ago.  Clem loss in embarrassing fashion to UGA their first game of the season.  The last 2 times these teams met FSU won, tying a ten game series.  In the 27 times they’ve played FSU has won 19.  This game looks to be FSU’s last challenge to an undefeated season.  In fact, FSU has a 73% chance to win every game this year, giving them a 40% chance to go undefeated and make the playoffs.  This is more than double any other team in the FBS.  It’s almost enough to make you sick.  This line opened at -20 and I think it is about where it should be.  However, last year’s Heisman winner J. Winston has been suspended the first half of the game for using vulgar language… %*$#  This was released yesterday so expect the line to drop a little.  Looking at the offensive struggles against UGA, Clemson looks like they could blow the best opportunity they’ll have to get back into playoff contention.  But against South Carolina State, Clem put up 737 yard in a 73-7 win.  If the Seminoles can stop Clemson’s pass game they will cruise to an easy victory as no one for the Tigers has more than 82 yards rushing.  This should be a great game to watch, and a chance to route for Clemson to spoil a potential repeat.

 

Clemson to Cover

 

Now, your surefire win of the week, guaranteed to make you look stupid and lose you 50 dollars in the office pool:

Texas A&M(-33.5) @SMU

                O/U: 61

                Power Rankings: TAM 10  SMU 127

               Coming in at a 75% consensus, this week’s sure fire win will feature the most dynamic offense in the country.  TAM is 3-0 and 2-1 ATS.  SMU is 0-2 and 0-2 ATS.  TAM is ranked 4th in off. and 68th in def. so far.  They’re coming off a season opener win against South Carolina, 52-28, where they decided on this year’s game plan, keep the opponents offensive off the field by keeping your offense in their end-zone.  They also put up 73 points against Lamar, so there’s that…  SMU is ranked 128th in off. and 105th in def.  They are however ranked 43rd in pass defense.  I expect that ranking to drop about 20 spots after this week.  SMU’s starting QB is also out for the season with an injury.  This game couldn’t look worse for SMU.

Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. 
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. 
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September. 
Mustangs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. 
Over is 7-1 in Mustangs last 8 games following a S.U. loss. 

 

Texas to Cover and the Over

 

Who you Pick’n?

Any comments and suggestions are welcome.  Good luck at the races!

 

Hoke: "In the Notre Dame game the cornerbacks were a little bit embarrassed"

Hoke: "In the Notre Dame game the cornerbacks were a little bit embarrassed"

Submitted by massblue on September 17th, 2014 at 10:14 PM

Apparently, during a radio interview Hoke has indicated that Lewis and Peppers were going to stick at CB position partly because our CBs were embarrassed during the ND game.  I, for one, have not seen much from Peppers so far, but Lewis was really aggressive during the last game and a half and seems to have the speed and the quickness to recover from his mistakes.  Peppers, by all accounts, is supposed to be faster so this looks very promising.

 

Link

Calling Football Stats People - Download Box Score Data

Calling Football Stats People - Download Box Score Data

Submitted by stbowie on September 17th, 2014 at 9:52 PM

Does anyone know a good free source for downloading box score data? Primarily interested in this year's games, but somewhat interested in previous years as well. I'm looking to put together some statistical summaries of B1G games and would love to not have to enter data by hand if it's already out there (and free).

Thanks and Go Blue!

OT: Texas QB David Ash Retires Due to Concussions

OT: Texas QB David Ash Retires Due to Concussions

Submitted by Sports on September 17th, 2014 at 8:07 PM

Texas Coach Charlie Strong today announced that starting QB David Ash will retire from football due to repeated concussions. This makes So. Tyrone Swoopes the starter. Due to reduced depth, Strong has added intramural star QB Jimmy Greenwood to the roster. 

http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/09/17/david-ash-texas-quarterback-concussions

http://www.lostlettermen.com/article/texas-football-longhorns-add-intramural-qb-jimmy-greenwood

Michigan vs Texas home-and-home announced for 2024, 2027

Michigan vs Texas home-and-home announced for 2024, 2027

Submitted by Wolverine Devotee on September 17th, 2014 at 1:03 PM

Per @umichfootball on Twitter.

Kapooya.

MGoBlue release-

ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- The athletic departments at the University of Michigan and the University of Texas have reached an agreement in principle to play the first-ever home-and-home football series between two of college football's most recognizable programs. The two schools rank first (Michigan, 912) and third (Texas, 876) in all-time victories.

The Wolverines will host the Longhorns at Michigan Stadium on Aug. 31, 2024. The return trip by Michigan to Austin will take place on Sept. 4, 2027.

"A match-up of this magnitude doesn't come along all that often, and when it does it's special for both programs and the great fans that support each institution," said Brady Hoke, U-M's J. Ira and Nicki Harris Family Head Football Coach. "This also is a special series for all fans of college football, and I anticipate great games just like the first contest played between the two programs."

 

I'll be 29 when they play in 2024 in Ann Arbor. And when they play in 2027 in Austin, It will be the 100th anniversary of Michigan Stadium and the 30th anniversary of the 1997 national championship....

OT: Jameis Winston suspended for First half of Clemson game for vulgar comments

OT: Jameis Winston suspended for First half of Clemson game for vulgar comments

Submitted by Jaqen H'ghar on September 17th, 2014 at 12:17 PM

Ty Isaac appeal denied, will sit out this season

Ty Isaac appeal denied, will sit out this season

Submitted by MGoSteelers on September 17th, 2014 at 12:10 PM

 

 

Ty Isaac's appeal was denied. He'll sit out the season.

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) September 17, 2014

Isaac is the team's scout RB right now, will have 3 years left starting in 2015.

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) September 17, 2014

 

Considering the team's depth at RB, this is good news.

Defense: Utah v. Nebraska

Defense: Utah v. Nebraska

Submitted by MGoClimb on September 17th, 2014 at 11:55 AM

To get an idea of how Michigan stacks up against Utah, I took at look at the closest thing that we have to a comparison. In back to back weeks, Fresno State played Utah (9/6) and Nebraska (9/13). Here’s a comparison of how Fresno State faired against their respective defenses.

Items to keep in mind:

-Utah played Fresno State at home; Nebraska played on the road at Fresno

-I looked at Fresno State’s top two leading rushers from each game

-Fresno appears to have had a QB competition. They played two against Utah, but settled on one for Nebraska. Brian Burrell played the entire fourth quarter against Utah and both drives resulted in touchdowns. Burrell then took every snap against Nebraska.

-Week 2 to week 3 improvement caveat

-There is no transitive property in football

  Fresno State Offense v. Utah Fresno State Offense v. Nebraska
Weather Salt Lake City: HI 87 LO 62, 0.10” precipitation Fresno: HI 102 LO 72, 0” precipitation
Halftime score 31-7 27-5
Final score 59-27 55-19
Total yards 338 346
Passing yards 283 241
QBs Brandon Connette: 16/24 177 yards, 7.4 avg., 1 td 0 int Brian Burrell: 30/59, 241 yards, 4.1 avg., 1 td 0 int
  Brian Burrell: 8/16 106 yards 6.6 avg. 2 td 0 int None
Rushing Yards 55 (not a typo; see below) 105
Tailback #1 Marteze Waller: 15 carries, 61 yards, 4.1 ypc, long 23 Brian Burrell: 9 carries, 59 yards, 6.6 ypc, long 66 (no typo)
Tailback #2 Brandon Connette: 16 carries, 40 yards, 2.5 ypc, long 13 Josh Quezada: 10 carries, 28 yards, 2.8 ypc, long 16
Drives on offense 16 18
Punts 8 13

I didn't want to clutter the chart, so if there is additional data you feel is pertinent, please share.

Bryan Mone article in today's Freep

Bryan Mone article in today's Freep

Submitted by StephenRKass on September 17th, 2014 at 9:49 AM

There's a nice article on Bryan Mone in this morning's Freep. His story is inspirational, and he is yet another in the parade of high character guys on Michigan's team.

Mone is Tongan, and is strongly motivated by his brother, 7 years older, with significant physical and mental limitations.

Houma, another Tongan from Utah, was instrumental in Mone's recruitment. The sky is the limit for Bryan.

He has Hoke teaching his position and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison comparing him to another Tongan, Haloti Ngata, whom Mattison coached with the Baltimore Ravens. Mone has a long way to reach that, but there's a goal.

OT: Vikings flip-flop yet again, Adrian Peterson barred from team activities (with pay)

OT: Vikings flip-flop yet again, Adrian Peterson barred from team activities (with pay)

Submitted by Sopwith on September 17th, 2014 at 9:41 AM

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11541346/adrian-peterson-barred-all-minnesota-vikings-activities

From Friday's generally lauded decision to keep AP off the field to Monday's sudden change of heart and epically inept press conference by Vikes GM (after reconsideration in view of the 30-7 loss to the Pats) to today's double-reverse, the Vikings are reaching new heights of organizational rudderlessness.

Upshot is that AP still collects his $$$$, but will not see the field under the rarely-used "roster exemption" rule until his legal process resolves.  If he doesn't reach a plea deal, his trial is unlikely until after the season. 

According to the Vikings, they flip-flopped "after giving the situation additional thought."  Translation:  Sponsors pulling out (e.g., Raddison Hotels), others lecturing them and the league with critical press releases (e.g., Anheuser-Busch), even getting cracked on by Minnesota's Governor.  

When a beer company is getting on a soapbox and lecturing you about morality, you're due for some "additional thought."

MGoBusiness people: how does such a profitable PR juggernaut like the NFL look like they've never taken a class or read a book on crisis management?  How does a fantastically successful corporation botch something like this so consistently?

I'm not looking to start a thread debating the "merits" of corporal punishment (there aren't any) but I'm fascinated by the organizational meltdown and ineptness of such a slick corporation and it's franchisees.  What gives?