Chicken Littles vs Polly Annas Betting Thread (For Charity) - week 3

Chicken Littles vs Polly Annas Betting Thread (For Charity) - week 3

Submitted by reshp1 on September 22nd, 2014 at 11:35 AM

Ugh, I'm thinking of betting on the Chicken Little side this week after that. We could all use some positive karma here so donate if you lost and make a new bet for this week.

Week 1 thread here.

Week 2 thread here.

If you missed it, the premise of the thread was for the pessimists and optimists to make bets against each other on predictions for the game or season, with the loser donating to the charity of the winner's choice. The terms of the bet were proposed and any takers would respond with a "I'll take that bet." Detailed instructions in the OP of the linked thread if you want to make propose bets for this week (put proposals in this thread)

vs Utah bets (pay up!)

Michigan covers spread (lol), $20 to CAN (child abuse and neglect) council, reshp1 vs UM2k1

Gardner throws no INTs (lol), $30 to Washington Animal Rescue League, notYOURmom vs LBSS

 

The season long bets:

Lemon bet for Michigan Beating Ohio, Uniqenam vs Reader71

25:1 bet for Michigan winning the BIG TEN, $250(!):$10 to Motts, BloomingtonBlue vs reshp1

Jabrill Peppers returns a punt AND INT for TD by end of season, $30 to Prostate Cancer Awareness/Movember, boliver46 vs umfan323

Morris starts at least one game, blood donation to Red Cross, double if not injury related, bleu vs JeepinBen

Michigan wins more than 8 games this year, $50 to Hope for Pahokee, Erik-in-Dayton vs YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

 

2014 NCAAF Week 4 Torrents - Utah at Michigan [Every Snap now, too]

2014 NCAAF Week 4 Torrents - Utah at Michigan [Every Snap now, too]

Submitted by MGoArchive on September 22nd, 2014 at 10:50 AM

2014.09.20 NCAAF - Utah at Michigan - https://infotomb.com/1av9w

Includes final 7:51.

 

New! Every snap torrents.


Defense - https://infotomb.com/gbpsh

Offense - [tonight by 9PM EST]

Special Team - [Wednesday by 9PM EST[

 

Although Brian does his own UFR's, I'd like to see more analsis out of the community. Everyone can contribute something, however small.

michigan state and ohio state every snap packages of all their games are coming too. one big file of all their video coming a week before the resepective games + an addendum for that weekend's game

michigan state deliverable - october 15th by 9pm est (will include jacksonville state, oregon, eastern wyoming, nebraska, and purdue). indiana game will be posted by october 17th at 3pm EST.

 

We can all improve and get better. Let's go.

(For Google/Archival purposes) Torrent no longer working/lack of uploaders? send me an email; mgovault at gmail dot com
 
Enjoy the torrents? Please consider a bitcoin donation - 13B1xiCRsg9fZt5unU3QnzA5qSGGrm3aWE

 

Any ticket deals for Minnesota announced yet?

Any ticket deals for Minnesota announced yet?

Submitted by HenneGivenSunday on September 22nd, 2014 at 10:35 AM

Has anyone heard of any ticket deals for this weekends game against Minnesota?  I would imagine that given the direction of things at the moment, there should be plenty of tickets available on the secondary market, but thought I'd see if anyone had heard of anything else. 

I've made the decision to lean into it this year.  I guess my love of Michigan Football withstands numerous punches to the "Soul Dong"

Go Blue!

Which start to a season appears better?

Which start to a season appears better?

Submitted by UM2k1 on September 22nd, 2014 at 8:50 AM

I got to thinking yesterday; I have seen this season before.  The opponents seemed familiar, the offensive ineptitude - it is quite haunting. Below I am giving result through 4 games for 2 Michigan seasons, guess which is which.

Season 'A' Season 'B
Lose to Notre Dame by 18 Lose to Notre Dame by 31
Lose to Utah by 2 Lose to Utah by 16
Beat Miami (NTM) Beat Miami (NTM)
Beat #9 team Beat #140 team

By now, I'm pretty sure you have figured out that Saeason 'A' is 2008 and Season 'B' is 2014.  I have to say that through 4 games in 2008, I was more optomistic about the remainder of the season than I am today.  The only benefit of the 2014 season is the rest of the B1G (excluding MSU, OSU, PSU?, Neb?) appears to be terrible.

Hoke Uber Alles?

What changes do you make heading into conference play?

What changes do you make heading into conference play?

Submitted by Sauce Castillo on September 22nd, 2014 at 8:48 AM

If you were the coach of this team and are now heading into conference play what changes do you make to try and get things back on track?

1)      Who is your starter at QB moving forward?

2)      What is your defensive philosophy? (more press man/ more zone/ good mix of both)

3)      How do you cure the offense?

4)      Are you changing any of the starters?

This isn’t a bitch about Hoke and company thread, strictly if this is your team what do you do?

43-37 since Lloyd retired

43-37 since Lloyd retired

Submitted by MGlobules on September 22nd, 2014 at 8:19 AM

Let's all sear this into our craniums/a, and have it tatooed on our chests, what do you say? 43-37 since Lloyd. When was the last time you saw this team play with swagger? 

We need a new coach with fire. We need to shut up about the tradition for half a decade. And then--if we've got anywhere--let's quietly reference it as something we're trying to live up to. The 1940s are well and truly over.  

Can we see a 2013-type Gardner turnaround?

Can we see a 2013-type Gardner turnaround?

Submitted by Yo_Blue on September 22nd, 2014 at 8:13 AM

Everyone talks about Gardner's poor performance last year and about him being a turnover machine.  Does it surprise anyone that he had three (3) interceptions in B1G play?  How about 1 INT in the last 6 games?  While he struggled in out of conference play, he cleaned up considerably once the conference started.

Chart

  CMP ATT PER YDS TD INT
CMU 10 15 67% 162 1 2
ND 21 33 64% 294 4 1
Akron 16 30 53% 248 2 3
@Conn 11 23 48% 97 0 2
Minn 13 17 76% 235 1 0
@PSU 15 28 54% 240 3 2
Indiana 21 29 72% 503 2 0
@MSU 14 27 52% 210 0 1
Neb 18 27 67% 196 1 0
@NW 24 43 56% 226 1 0
@Iowa 13 28 46% 98 2 0
OSU 32 45 71% 451 4 0

Is it unreasonable to expect this kind of improvement or is it wishful thinking? 

If the play calling could help Gardner out (less under center play action where he doesn't see the defense for 3 seconds at a time, more screens and quick slants to defeat blitzes, etc.).  We saw how Utah played against our blitzes - most of the time the ball was out before we could get close to the QB.

Looking at Devin's numbers from last year, consider that we didn't have anything close to the running attack we have this year.

Michigan opens as 7 point favorite for Brown Jug

Michigan opens as 7 point favorite for Brown Jug

Submitted by Zoltanrules on September 21st, 2014 at 8:29 PM

From Mlive's Nick Baumgartner...

ANN ARBOR -- It's Little Brown Jug week in Ann Arbor. And Michigan, despite an ugly home loss Saturday against Utah, will enter Big Ten play as a favorite. The Wolverines (2-2) opened as a seven-point favorite over visiting Minnesota (3-1) for next Saturday's game at Michigan Stadium (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2), per VegasInsider.com. After dropping a 30-7 decision at TCU two weeks ago, Minnesota got back in the win column last week with a 24-7 win over lowly San Jose State in Minneapolis. Michigan is 39-3 against Minnesota since 1968. Minnesota currently ranks No. 107 nationally in total offense (336 yards per game) and No. 67 nationally in total defense (383.3 yards allowed per game). Minnesota's passing offense ranks No. 124 nationally (99.8 yards per game), but its rush offense current sits at No. 30 with 236.25 yards per game.

 

Interesting observations by Nick from MLive

Interesting observations by Nick from MLive

Submitted by massblue on September 21st, 2014 at 8:22 PM

Nick Baumgardner has several interesting observations on the team.  Here are a few that just blew my mind;

Nussmeier says an "explosive play" is either a 12-yard run or a 16-yard pass, by the way.

By Nussmeier's definition, Michigan had as many explosive plays (8) as it did tackles for loss allowed (8) on Saturday.

 

Michigan faced 19 third downs on Saturday ... average chain reading was 3rd and 9.2 ... 0.0% chance this offense ever wins with #s like that

 

At this point, I'm wondering if there's something wrong with Devin Gardner's arm. Zero zip on any of these throws, underthrew people all day

I said it after App game that DG is just floating his passes. Is he hurt?

 

Michigan ranks No. 8 nationally in total defense, No. 81 nationally in total offense.

And most of that offense came against worst defenses.

 

10 men on a punt return TD, four turnovers, 0 offensive TDs, 0 trips to the red zone. ... This is a poorly-coached football team. Period.

 

Has this season been any different then predicted?

Has this season been any different then predicted?

Submitted by MGrether on September 21st, 2014 at 7:44 PM

To start: losing sucks. Period. This has been heart and gut wrenching start to my favorite time of year. But a question: 

Is this start all that off from what was predicted?

Brian's offseason analysis:

- Improved Run Defense with a strong front 7 (check)
- Improved Secondary (TBD - Lewis has been a revelation, Countess has been eh. Peppers and Taylor have been rotating through injuries)
- Overall Defense: Good but not Awesome (check)

- An offensive identity (Check)
- Offensive line moving from awful to almost OK, despite losing two NFL tackles (check)
- Problems still caused by offensive linemen making mental errors (check)
- Gardner being superman under Nuss (Nope)
- Improvement from WR & RB (would be a check, but the WRs bit the big one yesterday)

-Overall Offense: Signs of moving in the right direction, but not enough to overcome youth and adapting/implementing to a new system (check)

---------Conclusion--------------

Looking Game-by-Game, this has held up, with Gardner, and a bad day of WR drops, and Taylor's injury being the only major changes. This has led to games where the defense keeps us in, the offense moves the ball, but then the mistakes happen and the offense falls apart. The team is too young and the system too new to have the full bevy of plays in the playbook to effectively counter the defenses when the defenses sell out. The Good-But-Not-Awesome nature of the defense leads to the eventual scores, and game over.

This has led to a 2-2 start.

All of this follows what we knew would be the script but didn't want to believe. Actually, this script has been predicted for ~2.5 seasons. On the other hand, the same script also said that 2015 being a very positive year positive. The offense will continue to grow this season, correct the mental mistakes, build its identify/knowledge of zone/playbook, and start to capitalize on the opportunities it is creating... especially if Morris is given the reigns or Gardner gets the wake up call and overcomes his Football PTSD (or if Gardner book ends Funchess to create a deadly WR combo.... )

It is frustrating. I do not like it but there is little that can be done to rush/fix it.