The State Of Our Open Threads: After Penn State

The State Of Our Open Threads: After Penn State

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on October 13th, 2014 at 9:28 AM

First and foremost, I will apologize for the tardiness of this - during some downtime in Toronto yesterday before we left, I had a chance to compile the data but not write the summary for this past weekend. 

So, let's get to this - 

You will be pleased to know that this was a relatively civil affair in comparison to the rest of the season, and for many obvious reasons if you watched the game, not the least of which is the fact that we won. From a data standpoint actually, there is not much to report here - the thread grew to only 1,522 posts and contained on 109 instances of tracked words. By far, this is the most quiet the blog has been even when compared to last year, and of course, there was a liveblog or two and also it was a home game, both of which factor into the size of these threads. 

I say "only" there with regard to thread size because...

 photo PSUThreadSize_zps6c9f2d0e.png

...it is on the smaller end of the threads this season, but as you can see, the volume of the discontent in the three games prior makes this past Saturday - win aside - a pleasant experience comparatively speaking. 

How quiet though? We only gave 38 "fucks" and 25 "shits" and a smattering of "damns" and "asses". Almost no mention of the offensive line or indeed Shane Morris, the latter perhaps because he was not in the game nor cleared to play, I believe. 

It leads us to efficiency, which as you might guess, was rather low. Actually, it was the lowest this season by far:

 photo PSUEfficiency_zpsb3245fcf.png

We're getting to a point now, as we approach two seasons worth of data, that we can say with some confidence that the primary drivers of the lower scores are growing apathy and winning. As you can see above, this season has evidence of a slide into apathy that was ended with the "would have, could have, should have" rage of the Rutgers game, but then the victory over Penn State cause the efficiency to plummet. Similar trends evolved last year. 

Rather than the normalized data for the major contributors this time, as it essentially looks like the Appalachian State game in that they are all below the mean contributions, let me show you the now well-formed "fuck-fire" relationship this season.

 photo PSUFuckFire_zps4cd5be5b.png

I don't know that there is a better graphical depiction of the mood of the board through the fall than this really. It would be interesting to chart the CC threads by week and overlay them here. I think the spike actually did in fact occur between Minnesota and Rutgers. 

How did we feel overall? We were rather pleased with the result, a welcome break indeed, as indicated by the mood chart:

 photo PSUMoodChart_zpsde6199f2.png

In a season where happiness has been lacking, we can see that we sometimes can have a nice thing. We get a temporary respite with the bye week, of course, and then onto East Lansing, where this data could get interesting potentially as I am sure we'll be fired up for that. 

Wolverines in the NFL

Wolverines in the NFL

Submitted by PB-J Time on October 13th, 2014 at 9:09 AM

This was put together by user PeterJames, who did not have enough points to post. This is well done and informative. Reply to this PJ so we can bump you >100. Good to see U-M is still producing this much NFL talent.

 

Jason Avant (2005) | Carolina Panthers, WR (T 37-37 vs. Cincinnati)

- 5 receptions for 47 yards. Long of 17 yards.

- In his first year with the Panthers, Avant has made 17 catches for 179 yards.

 

Tom Brady (1999) | New England Patriots, Starting QB (W 37-22 vs. Buffalo)

- 27/37 for 361 yards, with 4 TDs and no turnovers. Brady was sacked twice.

- For the year, Brady has thrown for almost 1,500 yards, with a 10 TDs and 2 interceptions.

 

Stevie Brown (2009) | New York Giants, Backup FS (L 27-0 vs. Philadelphia)

- Played, did not record a statistic.

- Brown tore his ACL and missed the 2013 season, and has started 3 games this year. He has amassed 12 tackles in 5 games.

 

Will Cambell (2012) | Buffalo Bills, Practice G (L 22-37 vs. New England)

- Recently signed to the Bills practice squad.

 

Kenny Demens (2012) | Arizona Cardinals, Backup ILB (W 30-20 vs. Washington)

- 1 tackle.

- In 5 games played, Demens has recorded 5 tackles and 1 forced fumble.

 

Michael Cox (2011) | New York Giants, Backup RB, KR (L 0-27 vs. Philadelphia)

- Returned kicks for 24 and 28 yards. 

- Has not recorded an offensive statistic, and this was his first game 

 

Larry Foote (2001) | Arizona Cardinals, Starting MLB (W 30-20 vs. Washington)

- 4 tackles.

- Has started all 5 games in his first year with Arizona, recording 31 tackles and 1 INT so far.

 

Jonathan Goodwin (2001) | New Orleans Saints, Starting C (W 37-31 vs. Tampa Bay)

- Did not record a statistic. QB was not sacked this game.

- In his first year with New Orleans. Has started every game since 11/24/2008.

 

Cameron Gordon (2013) | New England Patriots, LB (W 37-22 vs. Buffalo)

- Did not play.

- Has not recorded a statistic this year.

 

Brandon Graham (2009) | Philadelphia Eagles, Backup LB (W 27-0 vs. New York Giants)

- 4 tackles and 1 forced fumble.

- Has not started yet this year, but has 13 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 forced fumbles in 5 games.

 

Leon Hall (2006) | Cincinnati Bengals, CB (T 37-37 vs. Carolina)

- 4 tackles and 1 pass breakup. 

- Has 17 tackles and 1 interception in 5 starts.

 

David Harris (2006) | New York Jets, Starting ILB (L 17-31 vs. Denver)

- 11 tackles.

- In 6 starts, Harris has recorded 50 tackles and 1 forced fumble.

 

Junior Hemingway (2011) | Kansas City Chiefs, Backup WR (Bye Week)

- In 5 games, Hemingway has 8 receptions for 89 yards.

 

Chad Henne (2007) | Jacksonville Jaguars. Backup QB (L 14-16 vs. Tennessee)

- Did not play.

- Started 3 games to begin the year. 42/78 for 492 with 3 TDs and 1 interception and 1 fumble. Has apparently lost starting job to rookie Blake Bortles.

 

Tim Jamison (2008) | Houston Texans, Backup DE (L 28-33 vs. Indianapolis)

- 1 tackle.

- Has started 1 of 6 games this year. Recorded 9 tackles and half of a sack.

 

Jordan Kovacs (2013) | Philadelphia Eagles, SS (W 27-0 vs. New York Giants)

- Recently signed to Eagles practice squad.

- Was cut from Miami during fall camp. Played in 9 games last year for the Dolphins.

 

Taylor Lewan (2013)  | Tennessee Titans, Starting T (W 16-14 vs. Jacksonville)

- First start of his career, starting due to injury. QB sacked 6 times this game.

 

Jake Long (2007) | St. Louis Rams, Starting T (MNF vs. San Francisco)

- Playing on Monday night.

- Has been a starter since he entered the league 7 years ago.

 

Mario Manningham (2007) | New York Giants, Backup WR (L 0-27 vs. Philadelphia)

- Did not play. 

- Has played only 6 games in the past two years due to injury.

 

Mike Martin (2011) | Tennessee Titans, Backup DE (W 16-14 vs. Jacksonville)

- 1 tackle.

- Started 1 of 4 games played. 6 tackles this year.

 

David Molk (2011) | Philadelphia Eagles, Starting C (W 27-0 vs. New York Giants)

- Has started past 3 games, due to starter injury. QB sacked 1 times this game.

 

Ryan Mundy (2006) | Chicago Bears, Starting SS (W 27-13 vs. Atlanta)

- 1 tackle.

- Has recorded 29 tackles and 1 pick-six interception in his first 6 games with the bears.

 

Patrick Omameh (2012) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Starting G (L 17-48 vs. Baltimore)

- Has started all 6 games this year. QB sacked 5 times this game.

 

Denard Robinson (2012) | Jacksonvile Jaguars, RB (L 14-16 vs. Tennessee)

- Best game of his NFL career. Rushed 5 times for 22 yards, and caught 3 passes for 14 yards.

- Has started 2 games this year, has rushed for 94 yards on 28 carries, and has 11 receptions for 37 yards.

 

Steve Schilling (2010) | Seattle Seahawks, Backup G (L 23-30 vs. Dallas)

- Started his first game since 2011. QB was sacked 1 time.

- In his first year with Seattle.

 

Michael Schofield (2013) | Denver Broncos, Backup T (W 31-17 vs. New York Jets)

- Has yet to start a game. 

 

LaMarr Woodley (2006) | Oakland Raiders, Starting DE (L 28-31 vs. San Diego)

- 1 tackle.

- 4 tackles in 5 games. 

 

Fitzgerald Toussaint (2013) | Baltimore Ravens, Practice RB (W 48-17 vs. Tampa Bay)

- Signed to practice squad.

 

Charles Woodson (1997) | Oakland Raiders, Starting FS (L 28-31 vs. San Diego)

- 7 tackles.

- Has 32 tackles and 1 interception in 5 games.

CC: Ultimate CC Matrix

CC: Ultimate CC Matrix

Submitted by alum96 on October 13th, 2014 at 1:42 AM

Borrowing from Ron Utah's "Where we stand" post, I decided to make a large table for all potential CC's.  Unfortunately it is difficult to post said table in full format in a blog so I have cut it into snippets to show below. 

I graded each coach on a number of metrics from 1 to 5, each line item equal weighted (which probably is not the way to do it).  These are of course my opinion and yours will differ.  So feel free to downvote this post but if you do so please don't do it because I graded Coach XYZ a "3" for demeanor when you think it should be "4"...or 2".

Aside from current candidates I also threw in what Urban Meyer would have looked likst post Florida, Brian Kelly post Cincy, and Charlie Strong (my fav candidate from last year) post Louisville.  I skipped some of the board's candidates like Nuss or McElwain because I just don't see those guys as serious contenders at this time.

Some of these categories are obvious but I will quickly discuss a few of them more in depth:

  • Midwest Footprint / HS Coach Ties - rather than focus on "UM ties" which is a very narrow group  of candidates I went broader and touched on a category where a coach has immediate access and familiarity with Midwest HS coaches which is important for recruiting.  OBVIOUSLY if Jim Harbaugh walks into your building as a HS coach you are happy but that is different from established relationships.  Only a few candidates truly have these.
  • Cultural Fit - to offset guys like the Harbaughs and Mullens who have "Midwest backgrounds" but not necessarily a lot of exposure to HS coaches I made this a catch all bucket.
  • Demeanor - as I commented on Ron's piece, I think Jim Harbaugh has the PERFECT college demeanor (mirror of Nick Saban) but others would disagree due to it being a political job to some degree and people who are type As might rub people the wrong way.  I find winning solves all that but I know others disagree so I put my estimate for demeanor that keeping that in mind.  A few candidates like Herman and Austin I truly don't know their demeanor so I just gave them a neutral grade.
  • Chance of accepting job and chance of staying long term - that's obviously a guess on my part without knowing the minds of all these men.  After the last 2 searches I am not in the camp than almost anyone on Earth will leave their job for Michigan, which some people believe to be true.  There is also the factor of Dave Brandon - if he is around almost all these scores go to either 0 or 1.  I tried to be realistic - I can hope all day John Harbaugh is coming here but he is a top 5-7 NFL coach so I am not putting a "4" there with information we have now.  As for sticking around - a lot of these guys are in their 40s to early 50s so could use UM as a stepping stone to the NFL or to a top SEC job down the road.
  • Receny bias - basically is a score for how in the news a guy is of late, or how hot his stock is. Mullen 11 months ago would have scored a 1, now he is a 5.
  • Layer of dirt (higher score was a negative in this case and deducted from total)- this is a catch all for any controversy ... Harbaugh saying "bad" things about academics, Miles being around during sneaky stuff at OK State, Graham leaving 2 jobs under circumstances some are upset with, Urban being Urban.

 

Top scorers:

  • 44 - Jim Harbaugh
  • 40 - Dan Mullen
  • 41 - Todd Graham
  • 42 - Gary Patterson
  • 47 - Dave Doeren
  • 41 - Pat Narduzzi
  • 43 - Urban Meyer
  • 45 - Charlie Strong

Now to be clear IMO the top row of this table should be the most important - "Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success".  So perhaps in a different scoring system I should have weighed this double anything else because frankly that is the #1 requirement in my mind at least.  Two guys who scored well (Doeren, Narduzzi) fail here since one is too new and the other has never been a HC.  Doeren is interesting because if he ever has decent success at NC State he is nearly the perfect candidate in all other ways.  But obviously he is lacking the most important thing. 

So excluding those 2 guys I had Charlie Strong as the best scoring candidate because of coordinator success and his Midwest coach ties due to his 4 years at Louisville; both things Harbaugh lacked.  One can obviously argue that proven NCAA Big 5 HC success supersedes any coordinator success (which I agree 100% with) but candidates who have both (like Strong) only become more impressive.  I knew Urbz would score well but I was surprised that Kelly did not score higher - but a prickly personality and lack of coordinator experience hit him.

Again in my world Jim Harbaugh is the perfect candidate but when I take emotion out of it and just go with scoring I found the results interesting.  And if I had doubled the weight of proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success Harbaugh would have come out on top even with some of the "negatives" some can see in his personality, and his lack of Midwest HS coaching relationships.

<

  Jim Harbaugh John Harbaugh Les Miles Dan Mullen
Total 44 37 39 40
Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success 5 0 5 3
Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success 2 0 4 0
Proven non NCAA HC success 5 5 0 0
Proven Coordinator success 0 3 0 5
Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties 2 2 2 1
Recruiting 4 0 5 4
Ability to Develop Players 5 4 4 4
Chances of Accepting Job 2 2 3 1
Chances of Sticking Long Term 2 3 5 3
Demeanor 4 5 4 5
"Cultural" Fit 5 5 5 4
Age 5 4 2 5
Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate" 5 4 3 5
Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes 2 0 3 0

 

<

  Todd Graham Gary Patterson Mark Stoops Greg Schiano
Total 41 42 39 33
Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success 4 3 1 0
Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success 5 5 0 4
Proven non NCAA HC success 0 0 0 2
Proven Coordinator success 3 4 4 2
Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties 2 1 4 1
Recruiting 3 3 4 3
Ability to Develop Players 5 5 3 4
Chances of Accepting Job 2 1 3 2
Chances of Sticking Long Term 3 5 4 2
Demeanor 5 5 4 4
"Cultural" Fit 3 3 4 3
Age 5 4 5 5
Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate" 4 4 3 1
Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes 3 1 0 0

 

<

  Tom Herman Dave  Doeren Craig Bohl Chad Morris
Total 38 47 33 32
Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success 0 1 1 0
Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success 0 5 5 0
Proven non NCAA HC success 0 0 0 0
Proven Coordinator success 4 5 0 5
Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties 3 5 1 1
Recruiting 4 3 2 4
Ability to Develop Players 4 4 5 4
Chances of Accepting Job 2 4 3 1
Chances of Sticking Long Term 4 4 4 2
Demeanor 4 5 5 4
"Cultural" Fit 4 4 2 2
Age 5 5 3 5
Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate" 4 2 2 4
Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes 0 0 0 0

 

<

  Pat Narduzzi Teryl Austin Bert Bielema Kirby Smart
Total 41 28 32 35
Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success 0 0 4 0
Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success 0 0 0 0
Proven non NCAA HC success 0 0 0 0
Proven Coordinator success 5 3 0 5
Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties 5 1 5 1
Recruiting 4 0 4 4
Ability to Develop Players 5 4 4 5
Chances of Accepting Job 2 1 2 1
Chances of Sticking Long Term 3 2 3 2
Demeanor 4 4 3 5
"Cultural" Fit 4 4 3 2
Age 5 5 4 5
Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate" 5 4 3 5
Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes 1 0 3 0

 

<

  Urban Meyer Brian Kelly Charlie Strong
Total 43 37 45
Proven NCAA Big 5 HC Success 5 0 0
Proven NCAA Mid Tier HC success 5 5 4
Proven non NCAA HC success 0 0 0
Proven Coordinator success 0 0 5
Midwest Footprint/HS Coach Ties 3 5 4
Recruiting 5 3 3
Ability to Develop Players 5 5 5
Chances of Accepting Job 5 5 2
Chances of Sticking Long Term 2 2 3
Demeanor 4 2 5
"Cultural" Fit 3 2 4
Age 5 5 5
Receny Bias / "Hot Candidate" 5 5 5
Layer of Dirt or Past Bad Vibes 4 2 0

 

Best and Worst: PSU

Best and Worst: PSU

Submitted by bronxblue on October 12th, 2014 at 8:14 PM

Best:  Go Blue

After the game, one of the ESPN sideline reporters caught up with Devin Gardner and asked him about the game, in particular him playing under macro (his coach likely being fired, the "boycott", the general discontent of the fans) and well as micro pressure (ankle injury, tough PSU defense).  After the usual player-speak of "I had to to be out there", "The team still believes in me/each other", "It's good to get the win", and the always-badass "I can hurt later", he talked about looking forward to playing MSU in two weeks and ended the conversation with the most loaded "Go Blue" I can remember.

I don't need to go into the gory details about Gardner's time at UM; you've heard these stories numerous times before, "hot takes" about his failings and odes to his greatness are legion in these parts:  He's a winner except when he's throwing crippling INTs or struggling to hold onto the ball under intense pressure, or a maddeningly inconsistent QB who never learned how to play the position due to a revolving-door of disinterested/ill-equipped offensive coaches and whose success typically comes from being a better athlete than the guys chasing him and/or a healthy bit of luck sprinkled with defensive incompetence.  He's off-the-charts when it comes to feelingsball and playing hurt, but through 7 games this year he's throwing more INTs (8) than TDs (6), and his team is 3-4 with one semi-competent win.  He's everything you want in a QB but with just enough rough edges and blemishes that you can't enjoy it.  He can wear whatever hat you want, can both prove and invalidate any argument, and at all times fit into a narrative without being attached to it.  Heck, against Miami I called him "Chaotic Neutral", and even now I'm not sure if that should be considered a compliment or a condemnation; it's probably just a statement of fact.

But what I think we all forget about these players are that they are human.  Yes, they're "human" in the way that they can hear the boos, maybe feel a little under siege with the tempest engulfing the program, and all the other discussion points we've heard these past couple of weeks regarding the way fans are interacting with the program.  But when I say they are "human", I mean they are human in the sense that they are so absolutely too old for this shit and just want to win games and move on to the next challenge.  Like everyone reading this blog, at some point in your life every take has been taken, every thing you need to bring has been broughten, and every question has been answered.  You are done with it because this is life and you need to move on, and leave the hand-wringing and intense discussions to those on the sidelines.

When Gardner said "Go Blue", he said it like a man who had just endured 3 hours of teeth pulling without Novocain, a QB who played on a bad leg for over a quarter while consistently pulling Mike Hull and the rest of the PSU defense out of his teeth.  He was a semi-movable target out there, and PSU took every chance they had to tee him up.  It's fashionable around these parts to talk about "soul" dong punches after a bad series or a tough loss, but that's all metaphorical and for effect, as a case of the "grumpies" and drinking a bit too much is pretty self-inflicted.  As the announcers reminded us seemingly every free second in the fourth quarter, Gardner finished the OSU game last year with effectively a broken foot, and has endured numerous other undiagnosed/unreleased injuries in his 2+ years as QB1; his soul dong probably hurts after losses, along with his ribs, ankles, shoulders, and every other part of his actual body.  He was hurting, but the pain was in service to a goal that was met, so it at least felt validated.  It was pain leaving the body for at least a moment, replaced with the healing light of victory.

He also said "Go Blue" with a hint of resignation, or at least an understanding that for as long as he can physically stand, he's the best chance this team has to win this year.  We talk about looking toward the future seasons and player development, but that's the perspective born from the one-way relationship of fandom.  I'm 33 years old; I'll be a fan of Michigan football until the day I die because the only expiration on my fandom is my beating heart.  As fans, we don't get replaced if we don't cheer loud enough, or run out of eligibility after 4 years.  We can decide how much we care about the program and the team, and can look to the future secure in the knowledge that while the names on the jerseys will change, our seats in front of the TV or in the stadium won't.  But for Gardner, he's got (at best) 6 more games donning the maize and blue, and he's going to do whatever it takes to win each and every one of them, depth chart and future coaching changes be damned.  And after seeing guys like Morris and Bellomy struggle immensely to even complete a pass, he's the last line of defense between UM being competitive against the rest of the teams on the schedule and being nothing more than the winningest Baby Seal U in the Big 10.

And finally, that "Go Blue" had the distinctive tone of "F**k You" that usually is reserved for B-Rabbit against Papa Doc.  And yeah, it had a bit of the cliche "FU to the doubters/the haters", "nobody believed in us", "how you like dem apples?" that you see in every movie and every NFL Films "mic up" of a defensive player in the huddle.  Gardner, more than any other player save maybe Taylor Lewan, has been the lighting-rod for the team's struggles under Hoke, and even though that's part of the deal with being the QB it still must be draining to read and hear people (mostly anonymously) question your heart, your talent, you ability to win.  So yeah, winning a tough game under the lights is a metaphorical middle finger.  But it also had the distinctive F U tone to the world, to the gypsies that keep taking down players, to the incompetent play reviews and tipped passes, to cornerbacks phasing in and out of Earth-2 on long passes down the sideline, to 27-for-27, to everything bad that has happened over the years.  It's Gardner looking out over the sea of fans, the joyous look on the faces of his teammates reveling in their first win in nearly a month, into the cameras of the media finally not probing for dissension or escapees from the sinking UM ship but to chronicle a gutsy win, and feeling that he survived.  It's Gardner telling the world "I'm still Fucking Here, this team's still Fucking Here" and meaning it.

Go Blue.  Go MF'ing Blue!

Best:  Semi-Competent Win

Last week I considered it an improvement that Michigan lost to Rutgers in a semi-conventional manner, as opposed to being thoroughly outclassed in embarrassing fashion like they had against Minnesota, Utah, and Notre Dame.  So consider this a slight improvement on that performance helped by the random number generator giving UM the win.  The team finally beat a Power 5 team, and even though you could fill a dump truck with caveats about that fact, it was still a good win and a nice way to go into the break before the real "meat" of the schedule kicks in.

Best:  Second-Half Defense

Watching PSU's first two drives felt like a portal to watching UM's recent offensive struggles, where the unit seems to be chugging along until they get 20-30 yards out and then everything bogs down and they leave with FGs (if that) instead of TDs.  Under RR, MSU in 2010 jumps to mind, and under Hoke pick your loss the past couple of seasons.  PSU was using tempo effectively, seemed to discover some semblance of a running game with a lot of sweeps and delayed runs inside (helped by some suspect tackling), and Hackenberg was throwing the ball quickly and effectively to Hamilton and James.  But once they got to the red zone, Michigan's defense stiffened enough to hold PSU to field goals, and you could sense that UM had taken PSU's best punches in the first half and they were kinda out of options after that.  In fact, after Gardner's INT gave them great position to take the lead at 13-7, PSU didn't have a drive longer than 27 yards the rest of the way, with 3 drives winding up in negative territory.

It helped that PSU seemed unable to block anybody for more than 3 seconds and absolutely played into Mattison's blitz-friendly schemes, but any time you hold an offense to under 100 yards in a half you have (a) fallen through a wormhole and are playing 2013 Michigan, and (b) done a pretty good job on your defense.  And yes, I know this is a Penn State team showing the effects of sanctions, but Michigan was without a number of defensive players themselves and reeling from giving up 404 yards to Gary Nova, so 214 yards of total offense given up is something I think everyone will take.

Meh:  The Almost Hail Mary

I know the general sentiment was that Hoke should have just let the half run out when PSU was facing 4th-and-1 from their own 39 instead of letting them line up for a Hail Mary, but I honestly didn't have an issue with the call.  If anything, I wished he had called a TO after the previous completion and saved a couple of seconds.  PSU had shown themselves unable to keep Hackenberg clean for more than a couple of seconds, and the threat of a 60+ yard completion seemed minimal especially if Michigan planned on bringing 4.  If PSU elects to punt, then you give yourself a chance on a return (as unlikely as that is given the dinosaur punting formations) or you can pin your ears back and go for the block, because at best that moves PSU forward a bit but takes time off the clock.  If Franklin decides to throw it up, then a million things can happen, most of them either inconsequential or bad for PSU, and would give you another chance to rattle a QB who had come up holding his arm earlier in the series and was a little jumpy due to breakdowns in protection.

Yes, there's a chance you get Kordell Stewart'd, why the heck not try to squeeze another possession out in a game (Michigan gets the ball to start the half) that was shaping up to be a defensive struggle.

Best:  Thanks For (Fake) Punting

Another week, another dumb attempt at a fake punt.  Last week it was Rutgers calling a good fake and then executing a throw that may still be in the air.  This week it was PSU running the most obvious fake punt run (at UM's 37!  Seriously!!) and UM sniffing it out almost immediately.  This decision came on the heels of the previous game between MSU and Purdue, where MSU failed on their fake punt on their own 29 and Purdue turned what was a semi-comfortable 14-point game to a way-less-comfortable 7-point game.

I get the desire to extend possessions and capitalize on the general malaise and predictability of B1G teams, but when they blow up they do so spectacularly, and for once UM seems to be the beneficiary.

Best:  I'm Calling Shotgun

They showed this last week as well, but it felt like Michigan's offense operated far more heavily out of the shotgun this week than in earlier games, and it absolutely helped to keep Gardner (reasonably) clean.  PSU isn't known as a great pass-rushing outfit, but Gardner was only sacked 3 times, and one was basically Gardner tucking the ball and running.  They even tried running the ball a bit out of the formation with Smith and Hayes, and while the results weren't great by any stretch, it did seem like the offense moved the ball most effectively when Gardner has a chance to survey the field and keep an eye on the rush.

This new approach clearly helped the passing offense, as both Funchess and Darboh made a number of nice catches within the offense, with Darboh keeping drives alive in the first quarter and Devin snagging a lob-ish pass for a TD because, well, being 6'5" and super-fast lets you do that.  As for Gardner's INT, it was a combination of him trying a bit too hard to get the screen set up to Smith and Braden failing to keep his hands on Zettel.  Had Zettel been engaged with Braden (it was clear that he was reading the screen by that point), he probably wouldn't have been able to get his hands up.  It's a tough situation for everyone, but it was as much a great, athletic play by Zettel as it was a failure by the offense.

Of course, having proved its efficacy this week, I fully expect UM to go under center exclusively against MSU, maybe with a sprinkling of the triple option where every run is Gardner into the line.

Best:  Norfleet-ing

Norfleet broke the Michigan record for kickoff return yardage in this game, and while it still remains frustrating to watch him nearly break so many returns back there without actually scoring, it's a testament to his abilities that he's been able to set the record after only 2.5-ish years of playing time.  Yeah, the usual jokes about "he's had lots of opportunities" (a record 86 attempts so far) is obviously an indictment of the team's struggles these past couple of years, but for the first time since Breaston was manning the kick-off team it's felt like UM has a weapon back there (I know Stonum took one back against ND).  Hopefully one of these returns will hit pay dirt.

Worst:  Stop Trying so Hard

First off - it wasn't 27-for-27 (31-for-64 is, I guess, an improvement) and the team won, so take this complaint with a grain of sad, "I guess this is where we are that averaging 2 ypc is a victory" grain of salt.  But it was annoying to watch the running game struggle against a statistically-stout PSU rush offense the way it did.  I understand that Smith's and Hayes's first goal was to minimize negative yards, and they largely accomplished that (only 7 lost yards on the day) while not turning the ball over or otherwise endangering the offense.

That said, I'm starting to get a little bothered by the backs in this offense struggling to read holes that ARE there and seemingly looking for the homerun instead.  In particular Smith always stutter-stopped before diving into the line, robbing him of momentum and turning maybe 3-4 yard runs into 1 or 2-yarders because the defense flowed to him.  This is an extreme frame of reference I know, but having watched Barry Sanders growing up I've seen backs probe the line at multiple points, looking for that glimmer of daylight.  But that's shoot one of the top 5 running backs in the history of college and professional football doing that, with an elite combination of speed and balance as well as an incredibly low center of gravity.  Smith bouncing at the line may look like Hart, but Hart was also able to squeeze in between blockers and scrape out a couple of yards where none were there.  If Smith is going to receive the lion's share of the carries going forward, he's going to need to continue to take the yards the defense is giving him and be more decisive in his cuts.  I hope he'll get there this year, but given Fred Jackson's recent track record you have to wonder if it will happen behind this line.

Worst:  Not Very Sneaky

In recent games, Michigan's response to 3rd- and 4th-and-short downs is the "up-tempo" QB sneak.  Objectively, it's not a bad playcall when you have an athletic, tall QB who can also audible out and run to the corner if necessary.  But I have two issues with its deployment in games.  First, if you do it EVERY DOWN, teams figure it out, and this line (and Miller in particular) isn't designed to bulldoze tackles and linebackers back the requisite yard or two you need.  Second, trotting it out when you need 2 or 3 yards is probably more than you can expect in any context.  I'm all for using a quick play to catch the defense off-guard in situations like this, but a little diversity such as a Gardner run to the outside or a quick pass to the TE would do wonders to keeping it effective.

Worst:  Inanity of the Announcers

I know that ESPN is all about narratives and storytelling during a game, but these announcer went that extra mile and just started rambling about inconsequential and/or irrelevant stories about the "issues" surrounding Brad Hoke and Michigan when a f'ing game was going on.  Save that for the video packages and bumpers coming out of time outs and halftime, but a couple of times Gilmore would just start talking about the boycott, protestors, Morris's concussion, whatever in between downs and it felt like there was someone in his ear feeding him lines.

In particular, the story he relayed about being in the elevator with Franklin and a Michigan "fan" before the game and the fan telling Franklin that he wanted PSU to beat UM so that they could fire Hoke.  Not only was that the type of story that really didn't serve a purpose (I'm sure that a fan who said he/she supported Hoke and wanted to beat PSU wouldn't have warranted a mention), but it simply reiterated a tired story that didn't need "dramatic, real-life" examples to drive home.  Michigan was 2-4, there had been protests on campus, people were talking about "boycotting" this game for whatever that amounted to, etc.  Michigan's tire fire has been one of the leading stories in college sports for weeks now; there have been a wealth of examples already as to the dysfunction.  To their credit, as the game progressed these non-sequiters shifted away to other topics (I particularly liked the sarcastic claim that Ole Miss/Miss St. deserved the SEC "respect" rub because of their storied histories and tough OOC games), but it was still maddening to be watching the game and listening to the worst parts of sports radio.

Also, for the person in that elevator...

Worst:  WTF Elevator Person!

You are the worst.  Absolutely the worst.  I don't give a shit if you are unhappy with the state of this team.  Trust me, most people are.  But when you are in the elevator with the head coach of the other team, don't tell him you are rooting for his team to beat "your" team.  Not only is that incredibly disrespectful to the team and makes you look like a dumbass - you might as well pick another team to root for in you want the current one to lose.  But it is also INCREDIBLY near-sighted in a practical sense.  Michigan's athletic department and coaching situation can charitably be defined as a "tire fire", and losing more and more games does nothing more than throw shit on that burning graveyard of rubber.  So now you've got a combination of burning shit AND rubber to deal with, which will absolutely make it even less appealing to the small number of head coaching candidates likely available at the end of the year.  Recruits are going to continue to leave in droves, fan support will dwindle, current players will be demoralized and attrition may take place, and Michigan's battered reputation nationally will only get further dinged.

I can't change your opinions about the current football team, and frankly it isn't worth my time.  But at the very least, keep your damn mouth shut and lie about it in situations like this.  Think about it as practice for the time in a couple of years when you tell your friends you've been a "true" Michigan fan and never stopped rooting for them, you ass.

Next Week:

The Washington Generals of football, the Fighting Bye Weeks, will be town.  I'm predicting a close win for the good guys.

As for MSU, I don't know man (sorry Brian).  They're probably the best team in the conference.  They also have struggled to put away teams not playing in the MAC this year.  The defense looks good but no other-worldly, but this game has been circled for weeks and I suspect MSU will be juiced up for it.  IU might be the beneficiary of this, as MSU's secondary has looked shaky and they could well be looking past the Hoosiers, so who knows if Michigan will be going to East Lansing to face a reeling Spartan squad or not.  Regardless, it'll be a slobber-knocker, and right now I don't see how UM emerges victorious unless they play a near-perfect game.

Rod Gilmore and the Gardner quote

Rod Gilmore and the Gardner quote

Submitted by Waves on October 12th, 2014 at 7:37 PM

Last night Rod Gilmore said Hoke had actually once considered asking Gardner to leave the program. Gilmore said so many irritating, semi-insulting things about the UM program last night, but this one really floored me. Anyone else hear him say this or know what he might have been talking about?

Bo and why he was/is important

Bo and why he was/is important

Submitted by Amaizing Blue on October 12th, 2014 at 7:31 PM
I turned 50 last Tuesday, and am realizing many on the board are too young to remember and "get" the impact Bo had on this program. You can watch him on film, but it isn't the same as having seen the man live on the sidelines. Multiply that by whatever factor you want to feel the impact of having played for or coached with him. When it comes to Michigan football, he was the Godfather. Loyalty was valued above all, and dissent was not tolerated, but Michigan always came first. Rich Rod is absolutely right when he says if Bo had been alive, he would have had it easier. Rich is the Michigan coach? Get in line and do everything you can to help him succeed. Shut up, Lloyd, Michigan won the NC, not you. Bo had many faults, clock management the most glaring. But...He was a Michigan Man. Meaning, Michigan came before anything else. That's all, full stop. We need another Michigan Man. A great coach who puts Michigan first. THAT is a Michigan Man.

Inside the Boxscore - Team 135, Game 7

Inside the Boxscore - Team 135, Game 7

Submitted by ST3 on October 12th, 2014 at 5:27 PM

     As the saying goes, it's always darkest before the dawn, and things have gotten pretty dark around here. Recent events have motivated students to protest on the Diag and in front of the President's house. There have been daily discussions of boycotts, and numerous coaching change threads have blotted out the sun. When darkness is all around, what can one do to restore hope? Should we accept our fate and wallow in the depths of mediocrity? Or should we boycott games, kickoffs, or concessions? Should we question the team's spirit, the coaches' intelligence, or the athletic department's priorities? Should we complain that things were better in our day? Should we cry metaphorical tears at the loss of our Michigan? Games started at 1pm when I was a kid and they should always start at 1pm because Bo said so. Should we blame all our problems on noodles, ticket prices and Special K? I don't know about you, but when things are bleakest for me, I make light of the situation.

     As a result, I decided mid-week to change up the format and give out light-related awards for this game, regardless of the outcome. I really didn't know what to expect from this game, except that there would be lots of punting. Unlike our previous opponents, I was a little familiar with Penn State, having watched them play against UCF and Rutgers. From that, I knew their offensive line was struggling, and Anthony Zettel is really, really good. In a match-up of two good defenses and two suspect offenses, we were treated to exactly what everyone expected. But how often does that occur?

Boxscore link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/101114aae.html

Play-by-play link: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/mich/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2014-15/box_score/stats_20141012aaa.pdf

Flash of Impetus
* I decided to Google "burst of impetus" so I could contrast that to today's award, the "Flash of Impetus." The first two links Google returned were to my diaries of Sept. 25, 2011, and Oct. 2, 2011. So that was no help. Simplifying the search to just "burst," I learned that a burst is an explosion. This makes sense in the context of Doug Nussbaum, sorry, Nussmeier's (darn espn announcers) focus on explosive plays. A week after Rutgers exploded all over our defense, the biggest unknown coming into the game was would Christian Hackenberg have enough time to replicate the Champagne Super Nova from the prior week. Mattison dialed up the pressure and eventually broke Hackenberg. At first, there was a flash of impetus, as a Penn State receiver dropped a pass that Delonte Hollowell scooped up and returned for an apparent touchdown. My heartrate didn't budge, as I was sure that was coming back. Why that replay took any more than 2 seconds is a question for another day. So like a flash, the impetus was there and then gone.

Burst of Impetus
* A definition for impetus is, "the force or energy with which a body moves." So technically speaking, the burst of impetus is an explosive play that moves a body. A body in motion tends to stay in motion, so these plays propel the team forward. In prior weeks, we thought Willie Henry's fatboy TD could be a burst of impetus. But the team didn't respond. There was a flash of excitement, and then nothing. In this game, on a play late in the 3rd quarter, the defense pressured Hackenberg, drew a holding penalty, and forced him to make a poor decision, lofting a ball that Jourdan Lewis intercepted. From then on, the rout was on as Michigan tallied the next three scores and turned a 13-10 deficit into an 18-13 victory. Hey, in this game, a five point advantage is huge.

Blue LEDs
* It was recently announced that three inventors won the Nobel Prize in Physics for their invention of the blue light emitting diode. As this is the top prize in physics, we will give this award to the top performer of the game, the defense.
* The defense held Penn State to 54 yards rushing on 35 attemps for a 1.5 yard average. Penn State was limited to 214 total offense yards on 68 plays, for an average gain per play of 3.1.
* The defense forced 5 punts, did not give up a fourth down conversion on three attempts, and tallied one critical turnover.
* Allow me to share my "cool story bro" story. Back when I was a student at UofM, I gave a paper at the Materials Research Society Meeting in Boston. This meeting had somewhere around 30 parallel sessions going on at the same time (hence, the word parallel.) Some of the more popular topics, like silicon, were granted the larger meeting rooms. Folks like myself who were studying compound semiconductors (like indium phosphide) got to speak in a closet in front of 15-20 people. At this conference, I overheard talk that Shuji Nakamura was giving an invited talk. He is one of the three fellows who just won the Nobel Prize. So I wandered over to that session's conference room. It was a little larger than a closet, but the interest was extraordinary for a compound semiconductor talk. I'm talking standing room only at a technical conference. This guy was already a rock star. This was over 20 years ago, when gallium arsenide was still regarded as the technology of the future ("...and always will be" is how that joke finished up.) Now, everyone's phone has a GaAs power amp and gallium nitride based blue LEDs are ubiquitous. At that time, no one thought a blue LED was possible because the defect density in gallium nitride materials was extreme, and defects cause non-radiative recombination, etc. So halfway through the talk, Nakamura pulled out an array of green LEDs (the pre-cursor to today's blue LEDs) and powered them up. The brightness was more intense than anyone thought possible. The audience was shocked, awed, and amazed. He explained how they were motivated to generate all LED traffic signals, and the green LED was the only thing missing. I had a feeling I was witnessing the future. And now, more than 20 years later, Nakamura has rightly earned his Nobel Prize. I was a witness to this due to my attending the University of Michigan. Damn right, I'm proud to be a Michigan Wolverine.

Lasers
* When a quarterback is on, he's described as throwing lasers. Devin Gardner was 16 for 24 passing for 192 yards. His long pass was a 43 yard arc that was anything but laser-like, but Devin Funchess stepped in front of the defensive back, bobbled it a bit, and then strode into the endzone for a touchdown.
* Gardner also ran 10 times for 18 yards. Of interest, Gardner ran for 121 yards last year against Penn State. This year, through the first six games, he had run for only 131 yards. If the goal was to run Devin less to protect his health, that strategy has failed miserably as he looks as beaten up after 7 games this season as he did after 12 last season.
* I watched Auburn play Mississippi State before our game. Both teams feature a dual-threat QB. I couldn't help but think as I watched that game, "THAT! That is what I want from our offense."

Quantum Cascade Laser Award
* A photon is a single quantum of light, and so this award goes to #1, Devin Funchess.
* Funchess led the receivers with 7 catches for 69 yards and 1 touchdown.

Quantum Dot Laser Award
* What's smaller than a two-dimensional quantum well? The one-dimensional quantum dot, so this award obviously goes to Michigan's smallest player, Dennis Norfleet.
* Norfleet caught one pass for 24 yards, but it was a huge play. The game had settled down into a defensive struggle, and it sure looked like overtime beckoned. Gardner was able to complete one pass downfield to Norfleet and put us in FG range.
* Norfleet also returned two kickoffs for 52 yards and set some sort of record for kick return yardage, but that's not something I want to focus on because of what it implies.

Phosphorescent Light Bulb Award
* The phosphorescent light bulb I'm thinking of is that curly tube like one that replaces the common household incandescent bulb. You know, the one that looks totally out of place.
* Jake Ryan led the team with 10 tackles. He had three TFLs and a sack.
* I'm starting to get used to those compact fluorescents. Jake may be getting used to playing MIKE. We'll find out in 2 weeks.

Red Lights
* The defense tallied 11 TFLs, six sacks, and 2 QHs. I did notice a couple times Hackenberg was able to shake off a potential sack. I hope we practice sacking this week and next. The scout team QB better be needing some serious hot tub time is all I'm saying.

Neon Deion Award
* For the defensive back who played most like shutdown corner, Neon Deion Sanders. I contemplated not giving this out, but Jourdan Lewis did have one huge interception and was credited with 5 tackles. (That's about 4 more than Neon Deion averaged in his career.)
* I watched the end of the Minnesota-Northwestern game (yes, I watched a lot of football yesterday) and Minnesota's defensive backs had more BrUps in the 4th quarter than I think Michigan's had all year. For the game, Minnesota had 6 BrUps. SIX BrUps! Raymon Taylor was credited with Michigan's only BrUp.
* Quick tangent, I've been banging the Gopher drum all year. They are now 5-1 and face Purdue and Illinois next. They scored on a 100 yard kick return that was exceptionally blocked. Norfleet isn't going to bring one all the way back until the 10 guys in front of him execute their assignments. I'd take Minnesota's DB and special teams coaches any day. Gee, I wonder if there was some way to make that happen...

The Phoebus Cartel Award
* IEEE Spectrum has an article about the Phoebus Cartel and their efforts to engineer a shorter life span for the incandescent lightbulb; what we refer to today as planned obsolescence. This award is given to the awful coaching decision of the game, and will be given retroactively as follows:
Vs. Utah - punt with 10 men on the field and give up a punt return TD
Vs. Minnesota - start Shane Morris over Devin Gardner
Vs. Rutgers - hurry-up at the end of half to give Rutgers more time to score
Vs. Penn State - call a timeout with 3 seconds left in the half to allow PSU a risk-free opportunity to throw a Hail Mary. Seriously, what are the odds that we intercept the ball and return it for a score versus Penn State throwing a successful Hail Mary to their 6'7" tight end with their QB who has a rocket arm? Fortunately, we didn't get burned by this decision.

Flashlight Award
* Goes to the program most in need of shining a flashlight in all those dark corners. As bad as things are in Ann Arbor, this award goes to Penn State.

Debbie Boone, "You Light Up My Life" award
* Debbie sings, "And you, light up my life. You give me hope, to carry on."
* The winner of this award is Team 135. Carry on, men.