Interesting Perspective by BHGP re: College Basketball.

Interesting Perspective by BHGP re: College Basketball.

Submitted by the_white_tiger on February 1st, 2011 at 5:47 PM

In an excellent post over at Black Heart Gold Pants, Horace E. Cow makes an excellent point regarding the high volume of three pointers that are attempted by some teams (including us obviously), stating:

In  men's basketball in the NCAA this year, players have made 34.5% of threes and 48.2% of twos.  The average value, then, of a three-point attempt is  3*.345 = 1.04, and the average of a two is 2*.482 = .964.  This fact has led many college (and pro) coaches to the reasonable conclusion that  three-point shots are better bets than two-point shots, and that their teams should take as many threes as possible (Todd Lickliter was one of these coaches, actually).  

Not all twos are worth less than threes, though: shots at the rim are usually made at a very high percentage (60-70%) and thus the average dunk or lay-up is worth 1.2-1.4 points, much more than the average three.  Putting  these two facts together (threes are better than most twos, but dunks are better than threes), coaches have developed what could be called a "hollowing-out" strategy on offense: threes and dunks are encouraged, anything in between in discouraged.

That's definitely very positive for Michigan, as the offense seems as if it's predicated on Morris driving and kicking to open shooters, or dishing to Morgan for an easy two. If the team shoots better than average from three point range (which they have in these past two wins, going 10-21 against MSU and 14-28 against Iowa, on the season Michigan is extremely close to average at 34.6% from three), Michigan will obviously do well, and if they don't, well, the losing streak speaks for itself, but this brief analysis shows that a team that shoots a high volume of three pointers and is able to make them at an average rate will have a better offense than if they shot more two-pointers.

This is a humorous chart, but it does prove a point: Michigan's offense is very successful at "hollowing-out" and having easy looks at the rim for Morgan such as these (via umhoops). Morris is the catalyst for this offense, and the way that he can distribute the ball as well as take it to the rim with good success makes him a perfect fit for the offense, and if he can develop a solid 3-point shot, he'll be Big Ten POY material in his career here.

Just thought this would be interesting to share and that Michigan doesn't run a "live or die by the three offense" as much as they run an offense that's statistically advantageous for a team to run, and as long as Michigan can improve shooting the three (which they will, presumably), they will have a great offense. Now for this thread to be buried behind all the NSD threads...

JBart's Blog Talks MSU, Iowa, OSU and Answers Your Questions

JBart's Blog Talks MSU, Iowa, OSU and Answers Your Questions

Submitted by MGoShoe on February 1st, 2011 at 2:11 PM

Josh Bartelstein has posted his latest blog entry at MGoBlue.com, and it's a must read.

http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/020111aab.html

He talks the MSU and Iowa games and previews the OSU game then answers questions about shoes, offensive rebounding technique, Zach Novak's hustle, how to become a better dribbler, the new basketball practice facility, Metrics and his leg sleeves, and whether or not he and his teammates can speak to his sports agent dad, among others.

Lebron offers Manny advice, encouragement

Lebron offers Manny advice, encouragement

Submitted by ish on February 1st, 2011 at 10:34 AM

I can't find it in an article, but after the Heat/Cavs game last night, Manny said that LeBron sought him out singularly to offer advice and encouragement.  Manny appreciated the gesture and the comment.

EDIT: Link http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=310131014

BHGP "graphical" analysis of the Iowa game

BHGP "graphical" analysis of the Iowa game

Submitted by psychomatt on February 1st, 2011 at 8:35 AM

Interesting article with a neat graph (in case anyone wants to check it out). It actually makes a fairly effective case in support of Beilein-ball, despite the fact that it can look damn ugly at times. As with any system, the key is to get the right players to fit what you are trying to do and them teach them to run it properly.

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/1/31/1964920/fran-graphs-michig…

GO EASIE(R) against Darius MOrris and Coach Beilein

GO EASIE(R) against Darius MOrris and Coach Beilein

Submitted by michfan4borw on January 30th, 2011 at 12:05 PM

I've recently been seeing criticism on mgoblog of Coach B's offense generally and of Darius Moriss specifically.  In consideration of this criticism, I've taken data from the most recent game to give a glimpse into the inadequacy of this criticism. 

Here's a link to umhoops.com and its "5 Key Plays" in the win against sparty at the Breslin Center (first win since 1997).  4 of the key plays show Michigan winning the battle with one of them showing the opposite.  Play 1: Novak's 4 point play early in the game; Play 2: C. Christian beats the shot clock for 2 pts.; Play 3: Draymond Green scores 3 pt. play in transition for sparty; Play 4: Novak for a long 3 pt. shot; Play 5 (2 plays actually): Stu Douglas hits 2 pt. shot late in the game and Douglass hits 3 pt. shot even later in the game.  Here it is for viewing (note Stapleton's statement): 

"Please let us know in the comments if you think we missed one. It seems weird that Darius isn’t explicitly featured in any of these."

http://www.umhoops.com/2011/01/29/five-key-plays-michigan-at-michigan-s…

 

I can think of one commenter in this mgoblog community who feels it necessary to criticize DMo w/o any real support for that criticism--something about ball-hogging or not passing or not being a team player.  I can think of many users who criticize the offense/defense Coach B uses or the talent he recruits.  My responses:

1) Of the four--really five since Stu gets two plays in his one video clip--plays resulting in Michigan's favor, DMo assists on the play or does more.  Play 1:  DMo draws a double team and makes a skip (no look which freezes the defense) pass to Novak in corner who's open b/c his man dropped down to help on the open post guy b/c of the double team on DMo; Play 2: DMo drives--and draws an extra defender sufficiently away from Christian --and assists on the made shot by Christian; Play 4: DMo gets the rebound (offensive rebound!) off someone else's shot and then assists on a 3 pt. shot to Novak; Play 5: DMo assists on Stu's 2pt shot (admittedly Stu created that shot, but DMo still had to recognize Stu's comfort at that place on the floor in that situation to make the pass) and DMo draws a second defender again to hit Stu for the open 3 pt. look to clinch the game.

Yes, DMo also made the turnover in Play 3 that led to Green's score and 1.  But that only leads me to my next point (made ad naseum by many against the trolls and ignorant critics of the bball team): YOUTH.  DMo is a sophomore starting full-time for the first time.  He will make mistakes, but he does--at least on this night in front of an Izzone and meatheads wearing numbers crying insecurity--make more positive plays than negative ones.  He will--if he hasn't already--have struggles with ego/maturity and a learning curve. 

What about the five freshman who rotate in regularly with 3 of them starting?

 

2) Coach Beilein has a young but talented team.  As a group, the team will play down to competition (hopefully not Iowa today, but I wouldn't be surprised).  But we've seen it play up to competition all season long too. The latter is not a given with just any team full of two juniors and the rest underclassmen.  Coach B should get praise for this part, for which he seemingly does not.   With maturity (and patience from us), Coach Beilein will show the fruits of his progress.  And please remember this tidbit from the detnews today:

In 2009, his second season at U-M, Beilein guided the Wolverines to a 21-14 record and back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 11 seasons, with a first-round win over Clemson. Michigan's 11-win turnaround tied a school record for the largest single-season turnaround.

 
Though RR didn't have the same types of positive marks during his time at Michigan, let's be careful about becoming a program that fires off coaches b/c they don't deliver satisfaction in the timeframe we arbitrarily deem sufficient to accomplish delivering said satisfaction.  Each situation is different and hence requires its own analysis.  At the very least, give some analysis--a credible one hopefully--when you shout/cry for Coach B or any other Michigan coach to be fired. 
 
Go Blue!  Beat Iowa!

 

 

What is happening with Big 10 basketball?

What is happening with Big 10 basketball?

Submitted by BigBlue02 on January 29th, 2011 at 11:27 PM

I understand that throughout an entire season, good teams run into trouble against lesser competition. But I can't figure out the Big 10. Indiana beats Illinois. Michigan State beats Minnesota and Wisconsin and then loses to us. Wisconsin turns around and gets beaten by Penn State today. I can't figure out if the Big 10 is really that deep or really that shitty. Now one upset to a top B10 team is acceptable and understandable, but it seems like any team at the bottom of the conference could beat any team at the top. When I look at, for example, the Big East, I just can't see Depaul or South Florida beating any of the top teams. Any thoughts MgoCollegeBasketballFans?

OT/SIAP: Kansas Player Dealing with Loss of Parents and Grandparents

OT/SIAP: Kansas Player Dealing with Loss of Parents and Grandparents

Submitted by phills39 on January 29th, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Too sad. His grandparents and mother all passed away within a very short time period, and now he must care for his 9-year old sister. Best of luck to him.

http://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaa-basketball/kansas-basketball-player-must…