BBall: Projecting into the near future

BBall: Projecting into the near future

Submitted by bo_lives on February 13th, 2015 at 3:34 AM

So obviously this year is a dud, and it's hard to blame anyone what with the losses to the NBA and injuries. But what does next year hold, and the year after?

If history is anything to go by, Levert is probably gone to the NBA. But if Duncan Robinson is as good as they claim, and if a healthly Walton takes a significant step forward, I'm willing to believe they could be pretty good next year. But is it enough to make a deep run in the tourney?

One thing that concerns me is the lack of athletic big men on the roster. Last year in the tourney they clearly got dominated in the paint by Kentucky in spite of an experienced uber-defender in Jordan Morgan. If D.J. Wilson comes through next year that would be nice... but how many teams have made it to the national championship in recent memory with nobody over 6'9'' on the roster?

Chatman: good in practice but bad in games?

Chatman: good in practice but bad in games?

Submitted by roosterbaan on February 13th, 2015 at 3:23 AM
I am thoroughly puzzled by Chatman. Obviously, he seemed like a slam dunk talent when he was being recruited. And everything we were hearing in the preseason also pointed that way, too. Take this quote from Beilein, for example: "His basketball IQ has been outstanding," Beilein said. "He's picked up some of our concepts and some of our actions as quick as anybody we've ever had. He's been very productive as far as his talk and his knowledge of the game. We're still trying to find out the sweet spots of his game and (teach him) when it's time to make a play and be a player." So hard to see how all of that jives with the on court product that we've seen. Take the game against Illinois: he got the start, so presumably he showed the coaches something in practice. But he was simply atrocious offensively, and lost defensively. Does anyone think he's capable of turning the corner?

The fascinating weirdness of Tom Crean

The fascinating weirdness of Tom Crean

Submitted by ypsituckyboy on February 11th, 2015 at 5:02 PM

Spencer Hall posted a pretty funny piece on Tom Crean over at SBNation. In it, Hall writes, "He's too successful to be dismissed outright as a long-term solution for Indiana, and too flawed not to worry over."

I thought it was a good article, but I couldn't help but wonder why people think Crean is such a good coach. In fact, I feel fairly confident in saying he's gotta be one of the most overrated coaches in the country. 

In 6 1/2 seasons with the Hoosiers, he's got 2 NCAA appearances. Both times Indiana lost in the Sweet 16. The '12-'13 S16 loss occurred despite the fact that IU had the #2 (Oladipo) and #4 (Zeller) picks in the 2013 NBA draft on his team. In terms of B1G play, he's got exactly 1 B1G regular season title and has finished 5th once, but his other finishes are 11th, 9th, 11th, and 9th.

While he did inherit a program in the midst of scandal, his job isn't without its advantages.

1) He coaches one of the most storied basketball programs in the country.

2) His school is the flagship university in a state with plenty of high-level basketball talent and is conveniently located near another large metropolitan area (Chicago) with even more talent. 

3) He has had plenty of recruiting success, reeling in plenty of highly ranked and talented players.

4) His school has one of the most racuous home courts in the country providing optimal home court advantage.


NITology has Michigan as a 2 seed

NITology has Michigan as a 2 seed

Submitted by DISCUSS Man on February 11th, 2015 at 2:27 PM

Was looking for an NIT predictor and found this. It was updated on sunday.

Current NITology has Michigan as the final 2 seed and the 8th overall seed in the NIT. Which means they are the 76th overall postseason seed. A 2 seed would guarantee them first and second round home games with a quarterfinals trip to a 1 seed unless the 1 seed gets knocked out earlier.

They would face a 7 in the first round. The current 7 seeds are Memphis, Rhode Island, Washington and Boise State. Rhode Island beat Nebraska in November.

Purdue is the #1 overall seed in the NIT according to this NITology and PSU is the 32nd and final seed. Meaning PSU would be the No. 100 postseason seed.


NIT vs. NCAA Tournament

NIT vs. NCAA Tournament

Submitted by Padog on February 11th, 2015 at 12:39 PM

Is there any way that going to the NIT is better than going to the NCAA tournament? The way I see it, going to the NIT could mean 2, 3, or even 4 additional games this season. Although it would be nice to keep a tourney streak going, I think it would be of benefit for next years team. There is a chance that Derrick Walton will be back before the end of this season, and those extra games would help him a lot. 

With the way these freshman are progressing, I personally would take a couple extra games of the NIT over a one and done NCAA tourney appearance. 


Inside Michigan Basketball

Inside Michigan Basketball

Submitted by goblue16 on February 10th, 2015 at 4:40 PM

The last 2 episodes cover the games against indiana, iowa, msu, and nebraska. Also covers the womens games against rutgers and msu. Latest episode features the new recruits and Harbaugh press conference. Enjoy Go Blue

The Road To (Your Tournament Here): A Probabilistic Look At Remaining Wins

The Road To (Your Tournament Here): A Probabilistic Look At Remaining Wins

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on February 10th, 2015 at 11:39 AM

This week, I decided on a short diary outlining the probability of various scenarios in remaining games using the estimated probabilities provided at Massy Ratings. As you know, there are six games left, so there are sixty-four possible outcomes for the remainder of the season at present.

What that means, of course, is that looked at individually, many scenarios have similar  chances of happening, but there are a few that stand out as more likely than others, although again none are good bets at this particular point. As for ones that currently stand out (if you can call it this – I wouldn’t):

1)      2-4, with the wins coming against Northwestern and Rutgers – 9.805%

2)      1-5, with the sole win being Rutgers – 8.695%

3)      3-3, beating MSU, Northwestern and Rutgers – 7.397%

4)      2-4, with wins against MSU and Rutgers – 6.559%

Conversely, there are some which are seemingly in statistical dreamland:

1)      4-2, with the losses being Northwestern and Rutgers – 0.060%

2)      5-1, with the sole loss being Rutgers – 0.068%

3)      3-3, with wins against Illinois, Ohio St. and Maryland – 0.080%

4)      4-2, with losses to Michigan St. and Rutgers – 0.090%

As you might have guessed, the opposite of the most likely scenarios are in fact the least likely in this case. Is this cumulative probabilities based on remaining wins:

 photo ProbRemainingWins_zps4f077b58.png

Yes, at present it is more likely based on these numbers that we run the table than only losing to Rutgers down the stretch. One thing that came up, however, when I did one or two such diaries for football is that there is an assumption here that the outcomes are independent, and that’s for ease of calculation here, although Massey’s model does account for the interconnected nature of the season somewhat, as I recall.

So, looking ahead and pretending we beat Illinois – the picture would change only slightly. We would still would stand a decent excellent chance of going 3-2 or 2-3 in the remaining five games, ignoring changes to other teams’ numbers just for ease for a second. The individual scenarios above would see their relative likelihoods increase, but it would be approximately the same top and bottom four (some slight alterations allowing for eliminated scenarios), barring other changes. 

Austin Hatch article on

Austin Hatch article on

Submitted by mgobluth on February 9th, 2015 at 11:13 AM

Today must be Autsin Hatch day at ESPN (I''m not opposed to making this a national holiday).

At 6PM on ESPNU, the full version of the SC Featured story on Hatch will be aired. But if you want a Hatch fix right now, I highly suggest you read Dana O'Neil's piece on Hatch.

I love this kid's story and am so proud he represents our university the way he does. A true inspiration to us all.